The Dolphins needed another linebacker inside next to Karlos Dansby with Channing Crowder gone and they get Kevin Burnett at a fairly reasonable rate, 5.5 million per year over 4 years with 10 million guaranteed. Considering linebackers like Quincy Black and Clint Sessions got 6 million over 5 years with more guaranteed money, this move looks like a steal. Considering Quincy Black and Clint Sessions were drastically overpaid, this move just looks about right. Nothing wrong with that.
Grade: A
The Raiders somehow got under the cap by restructuring Stanford Routt’s and Richard Seymour’s deals. I don’t know exactly how this happened, but I have a feeling it involves Al Davis using dark magic. Just a guess. With their new found cap space, they were able to outbid the Giants for Kevin Boss, who replaces Zach Miller in Oakland. At 4 years, 16 million, this is one of the first reasonable contracts the Raiders have given out this offseason.
Grade: A
Kevin Boss goes to Kansas City to provide insurance for Tony Moeaki, who is injury prone. In his absence, the Chiefs didn’t get a lot of production from the tight end spot in 2011. If Moeaki is healthy, Boss fits in 2 tight end sets because of his ability to run block and his ability to be a threat in the end zone. He regressed as a pass catcher in 2011 with 28 catches for 368 yards and 2 touchdowns in his first year in Oakland, but had 33, 42, and 35 catches from 2008-2010 with the Giants so he can pass catch some as well. The Chiefs are getting him at a reasonable rate, 3 years, 9 million. They’re buying low 1 year after the Raiders signed him to a 4 year, 16 million dollar deal, which they released him from this offseason after he disappointed and with the Raiders cap situation.
Grade: B
Trade for Jets:
Rex Ryan had been trying to get rid of Kerry Rhodes all offseason because apparently they had some clashes last year, so I like to see him establishing his dominance and continuing to establish the discipline in the locker room and, unlike Josh McDaniels, who is trying to do the same with Brandon Marshall, this move barely hurts the team. Marshall is a very talented receiver who is giving it his all on the field and helping the team. Rhodes takes a lot of plays off and overall is fairly lazy, but he’s talented when he tries. This wasn’t a bad move.
Grade: B+
Trade for Cardinals:
This doesn’t matter to grading this deal, but for Anquan Boldin and a 7th, the Cardinals have essentially gotten a 3rd rounder and Kerry Rhodes. They haven’t had a great two days. Overall, though, I like this deal for them. They needed a safety to replace Antrel Rolle and Rhodes has good upside if he’s trying, which players do most of the time after a trade, and they only gave up a 4th and a 7th for him. He can play right away. My only issue is that both Adrian Wilson and Kerry Rhodes, the Cardinals’ two safeties, are both strong against the run, but struggle somewhat in coverage.
Grade: B+
Deal for Seattle: Back in 2008, I mocked Balmer to the Seahawks with the 25th pick, as did several others. Balmer eventually slipped to 29th where the Niners drafted him. However, the Balmer era in San Fran was a colossal failure. With a mere 19 tackles in two years and 0 sacks, Balmer could never consistently break into the rotation at defensive end for the Niners, so the Seahawks are hoping a return to the 4-3 and his natural position of defensive tackle will bring his former first round talent out of him. For a mere 6th round pick, I’d say that’s a risk worth taking.
Grade: A
Deal for San Francisco: The Niners had absolutely no need for him. He wasn’t going to play significantly on their 3 man line this year at all and really never fit their 3-4 scheme well at all. Getting a 6th rounder for him is pretty solid considering we’ve seen starting cornerbacks like Chris Houston go for 6th rounders and star receivers with legal trouble go for a 5th rounder. The Balmer reclamation project is less likely to work than a possible Adam Carriker bounce back year in Washington, yet the Rams got significantly less for their former 1st round pick bust.
Grade: A
Spotlight #1: Kentucky S Winston Guy
Spotlight #2: Vanderbilt DE Tim Fugger
1st quarter
13:14: Guy bites on a play fake, goes towards back, play goes his direction on a roll out.
12:42: Guy shows a good motor in pursuit.
9:42: Fugger lines up standing up at linebacker.
8:05: Fugger lined up against right tackle early, right tackle having a lot of trouble with him.
6:22: Guy bites on another play fake, gave up gap integrity play goes other way for solid gain on a quarterback run.
4:39: Guy gets in on a tackle for little to no gain.
3:48: Guy allows completion, misses tackle afterwards, luckily a couple other guys in area to clean up for no extra gain.
2nd quarter
14:32: Guy sheds a block and a gets a tackle after a gain of 6.
12:49: Guy allows reception to Barden.
12:12: Guy makes a tackle after crossing field.
11:41: Guy on a short tackle.
6:24: Fugger in on a combined sack.
4:14: Guy blocked off the play well because he was overly aggressive, long run.
2:33: Guy overly aggressive again, vacates his gap, allows sizeable quarterback run.
2:13: Guy in on tackle on a pile.
1:10: Guy pancaked on a short conversion lining up near the line of scrimmage. Guy down with an injury. Going to focus on Trevathan for now.
0:54: Trevathan with a short tackle, 5th of the game.
0:52: Guy back.
0:05: Guy not quite fast enough to chase down back before a solid gain. Let him get out of bounds and stop clock, mistake by back not to take advantage of the opportunity.
3rd quarter
14:54: Fugger outmuscled in pass rush.
14:01: Fugger beats his first man, but stopped by double team.
13:14: Guy gets a special teams tackle.
11:40: Guy with a phenomenal open field tackle to prevent a first down on 3rd down.
7:37: Tim Fugger starts outside, rushes inside, up the middle, almost untouched, explosive solo sack.
6:32: Guy in on a tackle combined with another defensive back who allows a completion.
6:00: Guy bites on another fake, poor instincts and reaction.
2:15: Fugger with an effective spin move.
2:07: Fugger doubled.
1:41: 2nd effective spin by Fugger.
4th quarter
14:48: Fugger gets some pressure.
10:40: Guy in on a tackle.
6:45: Guy in on a pile that got dragged a good 5-10 yards. Zac Stacy with a phenomenal effort and run.
3:20: Guy hurt again.
0:00: Winston Guy is one of college football’s leading tacklers and he’s a safety. He had 120 tackles this season and 105 last season. However, he’s not a traditional safety. He lines up in a number of different spots in Kentucky’s 4-2-5 defense, including as a nickel back, a box safety, and essentially at outside linebacker on the weak side as Kentucky only has 2 linebackers. He would obviously be undersized for a linebacker at the next level at 6-1 215 so safety will be his long term position, but I think he’s hurt by the fact that he doesn’t play a traditional safety spot.
He does have a high amount of tackles, even for someone who plays in the box so much, but Kentucky essentially gives him free reign to chase the ball, which means he doesn’t have to pay a lot of attention to gap integrity. That won’t fly at the next level. He’s overly aggressive plays with poor gap integrity. He’s also stiff in pass coverage and doesn’t have a lot of experience doing that. Some are projecting him as a strong safety at the next level and a potential day 2 pick. I have him as a mid day 3 pick as a nickel back.
On the Vanderbilt side, defensive end Tim Fugger is a very underrated prospect. At 6-4 250, he’s a bit of a one trick pony as a pure pass rusher first and has trouble against run, but he’s a very good pass rusher who gets consistent pressure. He’s not the best athlete, but he has a terrific motor. On the season he has 33 tackles, 13.5 for loss, 7 sacks, including 1.5 in this game, giving Kentucky’s right tackle all he could handle. He also has 4 deflections. He should get drafted as a day 3 pick as either a nickel end or a 3-4 outside linebacker, but will probably get drafted later than he should. In fact, based on projections, he looks like he would be lucky to get drafted, though that can change with strong workouts, as well as possibly a good game in the Senior Bowl, should he attend.
Wide receiver
Baylor
5-10 196
Draft board overall prospect rank: #15
Draft board overall wide receiver rank: #3
Overall rating: 87 (Solid 1st round prospect)
40 time: 4.41
Games watched: TCU/Baylor, Texas A&M/Baylor, Oklahoma/Baylor
Positives
· Elite deep speed
· Explosive
· Quick off the line
· 4 years of strong production
· Incredibly productive senior season (108 catches for 1663 yards and 14 touchdowns)
· Improved every season
· Some production as a runner as well
· Natural hands catcher
· Great route runner
· Smart receiver who finds seams in the defense
· Adept at going over the middle of the field
· Great hands and rarely drops a ball
· Quick
· Great after the catch
· A threat to score at any time
· Smart, hard working player with great intangibles
· Takes the top off the defense
Negatives
· Possibly a system player?
· Didn’t have an elite season until Robert Griffin broke out
· Played in a high tempo, spread offense
· Didn’t have to master an advanced route tree
· Short (5-10)
· Small and could be prone to injury working the middle of the field
· Not much of a blocker
· Can be jammed at the line
· Could have trouble with jump balls
· Not much of an end zone threat
· Won’t break a lot of tackles with power and strength
NFL Comparison: Antonio Brown
Whereas Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd both look like #1 receivers at the next level, Kendall Wright doesn’t have the size to be a #1 receiver. Very few #1 receivers are under 6 foot tall and Wright is 5-10. He makes up for his lack of size with blazing speed. He’s an excellent deep route runner who caught 108 passes for 1663 yards and 14 touchdowns last season as Robert Griffin’s top wide receiver. In Robert Griffin’s scouting report, I compared him to Aaron Rodgers because of his ease throwing downfield accurately. If Griffin is Rodgers, Wright is Greg Jennings.
As an NFL player, I think a Greg Jennings comparison makes some sense, but he reminds me more of Antonio Brown. Brown was one of the few sub 6 foot receivers to surpass 1000 yards last season in his 2nd season as a pro. He’s not his team’s primary receiver, but his blazing speed makes him a great deep threat out of the slot and allowed him to catch 69 passes for 1108 yards and 2 touchdowns. He’s also very good on special teams, part of the reason why he made the Pro Bowl last season. Wright was not utilized in that manner at Baylor, but his abilities suggest he could be a good return man as well.
Wright probably won’t come off the board before in the top 10 or top 15 like Blackmon or Floyd because he doesn’t project well as a #1 wide receiver, he should still be a first round pick, in spite of his size. A comparison in terms of who he reminds purely as a prospect is Percy Harvin, a smaller wide receiver who went 22th overall to the Vikings in 2009. Wright should also go in that range. His stock starts at #19 to Chicago. Tennessee at 20, Cincinnati at 21, Cleveland at 22, Denver at 25, and Houston at 26 are all other options. Needing a young wide receiver and more receiving depth behind the aging Andre Johnson, I doubt Houston would pass on him.
He’s got the ability to be a weapon as a #2 receiver who lines up in the slot in 3 wide receiver sets, a la Wes Welker or Victor Cruz. He probably won’t be a team’s feature receiver, but he’d still be a valuable weapon. My one concern is that he’s a system player. He played in a spread style offense and didn’t have an elite season until Robert Griffin broke out. Heading into the season, he was probably a 3rd or 4th round prospect (that was my grade on him and I thought I was higher on him than most). His quick rise in conjunction with Griffin worries me.
Langford has been a solid starting caliber player at 3-4 defensive end over the past few years for Miami. St. Louis runs a 4-3, which is a change, but Langford projects as a good fit for a wide 9 scheme. Langford didn’t manage a sack last season, but with 25 quarterback pressures, he graded out as the 9th best pass rusher among 3-4 defensive ends on ProFootballFocus, though he was below average as a run stopper. 4 years, 24 million with 12 million guaranteed seems like a bit of an overpay, especially the guaranteed money, but the Rams really needed help at the position.
Grade: B
I was really surprised when the Ravens cut Gregg, who was only owed 3.5 million next year and can still be a competent nose tackle in this league. He’s 35 this season so it’s important this was only a one year deal, but they got him very cheap and he can be a competent one or two year stopgap to rookie Jerrell Powe.
Grade: A
Quarterback
Boise State
6-0 197
Draft board overall prospect rank: #191
Draft board overall quarterback rank: #9
Overall rating: 54 (6th round)
40 time: 4.94
Games watched: Boise State/Toledo, Boise State/Fresno State, Boise State/Arizona State
Positives
· Incredibly smart
· High football IQ
· Excellent decision maker
· Great short to intermediate accuracy
· Excellent timing
· Quick release
· Winner (50-3 career record with 3 losses by 5 points)
· 4 year starter
· 4 years of great production (completion percentages between 64.3%-74.3%, YPAs between 8.2-10.0, TDs between 25-43, INTs between 3-10)
· Has always been mature beyond his years
· Good pocket presence
· Gets ball out quick and avoids sacks
· High character leader
· Great field vision
· Always keeps his eyes downfield
· Hard worker who loves the game
· All the intangibles
Negatives
· Short (barely 6 foot)
· Small frame 6-0 197
· Minimal arm strength
· Struggles with throws outside the numbers
· Deep throws tend to hang
· Poor deep accuracy
· Low release point
· Combination of low release point and lack of height lead to a lot of passes deflected at the line, only will get worse in NFL
· Level of competition wasn’t great
· Not mobile
· Doesn’t throw particularly well on the run
· Poor athlete
· Not a lot of under center experience
· No Pro Style experience
· System quarterback?
· Doesn’t pass the eyeball test
NFL Comparison: Shorter Colt McCoy
Kellen Moore is the winningest quarterback in college football history with a 50-3 career. That record could stand for a long time and may never be broken. However, this is not a definite precursor for NFL success. The top 4 winningest quarterbacks in college football history: Kellen Moore, Colt McCoy, David Greene, Andy Dalton. Only Dalton has 40+ wins in college and went on to become a legitimate NFL starter. This isn’t to say that quarterbacks with a lot of wins are automatically going to fail in the NFL. This would be ridiculous. However, it’s not a definite predictor of NFL success.
Moore has got a lot of things working against him. First of all, he’s barely 6 foot tall. There are only 2 NFL starting quarterbacks who have had any sort of success at shorter than 6-2: Michael Vick and Drew Brees. Moore doesn’t have Vick’s speed and athleticism and Brees has a much stronger arm. Neither of those two quarterbacks have Moore’s weird delivery point. It’s Philip Rivers esque. That works fine if you’re Rivers and 6 foot 5, but Moore isn’t. A lot of his passes are going to be knocked down at the line of scrimmage. That happened quite a bit in college, but it’ll happen more in the NFL, especially with all of the tall long armed defensive ends like Jason Pierre Paul and the like.
Moore has a lot of trouble driving the ball deep. His deep balls don’t have a lot of zip or velocity and float too much. He has trouble throwing into windows farther than 10-15 yards out and he doesn’t have the ability to consistent drive the ball outside the numbers. NFL teams will just stack the middle against him and dare him to beat them deep. His arm will get stronger in the NFL as he gets into a strength training program, but because of his small frame, I question how much muscle he can add and how much stronger his arm can get.
It’s a shame because he’s one of the smartest most accurate college quarterbacks I can remember. He’s an excellent leader with all the intangibles. He’s got an infectious demeanor and work ethic and love for the game. He’s a winner (albeit in a weak conference) with incredibly short accuracy and football intelligence. He’s a poised leader with a quick delivery and great pocket presence.
However, all of the same things can be said about Colt McCoy, who Moore surpassed in career wins this season. McCoy won 44 games in a tougher conference in the Big 12. He was just as smart and accurate and poised as Moore and even taller (6-2). However, he fell to the late 3rd round and in 2 years as a starter, he has failed to impress. The Browns are once again searching for a quarterback 2 years later. Moore will probably be a 5th or 6th round pick, but will have a similar career. He’s not going to be a good starter in the NFL, but you can do a lot worse in your backup quarterback.
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