All spreads on Bodog. All money lines on 5dimes.

Last week overall: 12-4

Last week ATS: 6-9-1 (-670/-5 units)

Overall picks: 20-12 (.625)

ATS Picks: 12-18-2 (-1590/-12 units)

Lock picks: 2-0

Upset picks: 3-6 (-130)

2 down weeks in a row. It looks bad to start a season, but it can happen at any time. Gambling is just that. A gamble. If Buffalo -3.5 covers last week, I win $170 instead of lose $670. Buffalo won by 3. It happens. Unlike week 1, I don’t think I completely misread the games. I was 12-4 straight up. Here’s hoping for some better luck week 3.

Cincinnati Bengals 20 San Francisco 10

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -3 (+105) 3 units (-300)

It’s fun fact time. Since 2008, 7 quarterbacks have started week 1, a complete contrast to what was happening before then, when starting rookie quarterbacks week 1 was completely taboo. Those 7 quarterbacks, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, and Andy Dalton. Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Sanchez, and Bradford ALL won and covered week 3. Newton and Dalton have a chance to do the same this. It’s not a huge trend, but it makes sense. Rookie starters are settled in by week 3 so it makes sense they’d have their best game then.

Can Cam Newton and Andy Dalton keep this up? I’ll have my answer on Cam Newton later, but as for Andy Dalton, I think he definitely can. San Francisco would have only beaten the lowly Seahawks in San Francisco by 2 week 2 if Ted Ginn didn’t go insane and score 2 special teams touchdowns in just over a minute. Last week, they were outplayed by Dallas (in terms of total yards), but still led 24-14 going into the 4^th quarter. They blew that lead and lost at home 27-24 to the Cowboys as Tony Romo (TONY ROMO?!) led a miraculous fourth quarter drive to tie and overtime drive to win despite playing with a punctured lung he suffered in the 3^rd quarter.

San Francisco is going to be extremely flat off of that loss and now they have to travel 3 time zones and play Cincinnati at a 1 o’clock start, a situation West Coast teams are 24-42 ATS in after a home game. I also think Cincinnati is the better team and right now the line is at -3, which suggests that Cincinnati and San Francisco are equal.

New England Patriots 35 Buffalo Bills 31

Pick against spread: Buffalo +9 (-115) 4 units (+400)

The Buffalo Bills are 2-0 and yet they are 9 point home dogs to the New England Patriots. They have to be feeling disrespected right now. I tried to find a trend to see how 2-0 teams do as 7+ point home dogs. There wasn’t one. The reason why, the Bills are the ONLY 2-0 7+ point home dog as far back as I have data for (2000). Given that they haven’t beaten the Patriots since 2003 and that they’re going to feel disrespected, you have to figure that they’ll be playing their hearts out this week. This is their Super Bowl.

In their next 11 games after their last win against New England, Buffalo was 2-9 ATS. In their last 4, they’re 2-1-1 ATS. They’re getting better and they have delivered a scare to New England in their first matchup of the year in the last 2 years, covering as underdogs both times.

Speaking of the fact that Buffalo is the biggest 2-0 home dog I could find, that makes this a definite trap line. Here’s what I mean by trap line. Last year Seattle was 10 point home dogs in the playoffs to New Orleans. That was only the 2^nd time that season a team was 10+ point home dogs. The other time was Baltimore in Carolina when Carolina was starting Brian St. Pierre, a career backup they had just signed out of retirement. The Seahawks didn’t deserve to be 10 point home dogs. They’re great at home and New Orleans struggles in the elements. However, everyone still bet on the Saints because everyone thought, the Seahawks don’t deserve to be here, the Saints will destroy them. The Seahawks covered and also won and Vegas won a lot of money (as did I because I put 5 units on the Seahawks).

Remember Super Bowl 42. The general perception was that New England couldn’t be beaten and New York didn’t deserve to be there and New York was the largest Super Bowl underdogs in NFL history (12 points on a neutral field). Everyone still bet New England. Vegas won a lot of money when New York covered and won. How does that relate to this game? Well, the general perception going into this game is that New England is awesome and can’t be beaten, while Buffalo is only a fluke 2-0 because of who they’ve played (Kansas City, Oakland). The majority of the money right now is on New England. I’m going with the underdog in this trap line.

I did find a few trends that related to this game. Buffalo is a home dog of 7+ after a straight up home win. Since 2002, teams are 12-4 ATS in that situation. That makes sense. They’re comfortable in their 2^nd straight home game. They’re coming off a win, yet they’re still disrespected by the oddsmakers, who make them 7+ point home dogs. Buffalo is also a divisional home dog of 7+ in their 2^nd straight game at home. They’re comfortable at home and still big home dogs. Plus, divisional games tend to be closer than most since these teams are so familiar with each other. Teams in these situations are 11-6 ATS since 2002 and 2-1 ATS off of a win.

The Patriots have the type of pass defense that allows opponents to keep the game close. They have allowed the 2^nd most passing yards in the league with 762. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a decent quarterback who is a perfect fit for the Chan Gailey offense. He can move the ball on New England enough to keep this one within 9. The only reason I’m not picking Buffalo for 5 is because I bet against New England last week and then when I was watching the game I had a heart attack every time Tom Brady dropped back to pass. However, there are too many situations to ignore in this one.

New Orleans Saints 27 Houston Texans 24

Pick against spread: Houston +4 (-110) 2 units (-220)

The Texans new look defense has lived up to its billing thus far this season. However, they’ve faced Kerry Collins and Chad Henne. I think Drew Brees presents a bit of a tougher challenge. They also have to go into the Superdome, a tough challenge, particularly for a quarterback in Matt Schaub was has never started there before. The noise in the Superdome is impossible to simulate and there’s nothing else quite like it in the league. We saw it last week with Jay Cutler. Quarterbacks struggle on their first visit to the Superdome, particularly quarterbacks like Cutler who are prone to mistakes.

However, there’s something different about this year’s Texans. I bet against them week 1 and week 2 because they were playing in situations they’d normally struggle in. Week 1 they were playing a team that had just lost their starting quarterback. There was no way they give 100% for that game after getting the sigh of relief that was the news of Manning’s injury, right? Well they did. How about last week. Typical trap game. They had games with the Saints and the Steelers in their next 2 weeks. There’s no way they give 100% for the lowly Dolphins right? Wrong. I don’t think you can call this a mistake prone team anymore so I’m not afraid of betting them in New Orleans.

There are two situations that support my decision of Houston. Houston is 10-3 ATS in their 2^nd straight road game under Gary Kubiak. Meanwhile, in the Sean Peyton/Drew Brees era, the Saints are surprisingly a mere 3-8 in their 2^nd straight game as home favorites. I think the Saints still tough out a home win here and the line isn’t huge, but I’m putting a small play on Houston and hoping we get a field goal game here. I think that’s what happens.

Miami Dolphins 19 Cleveland Browns 17 (+120)

Pick against spread: Miami +3 (-130) 3 units (+300)

Miami lost their first 2 games to start 0-2 despite having both at home. They’re screwed now that they have to go to Cleveland right? Well, not necessarily. I don’t know what it is, but the Dolphins SUCK at home. They were 1-7 there last year as opposed to 6-2 on the road and now they’re 0-2 to start this season there. They’re a better road team and this isn’t anything new. In the Tony Sparano era, they’re 17-7 ATS on the road and 7-20 ATS at home.

This makes absolutely no sense and thus it’s perfect for bettors. Vegas adds 3 points to the line depending on where the game is. This line says that Miami and Cleveland are equal, but Cleveland is favored by 3 because they’re at home. However, history says that Miami is BETTER on the road than at home, so much better in fact that maybe they should be 3 point favorites in this situation. Either way, I like betting on Miami on the road and I’m going to be betting against them pretty heavily at home from now on.

I also like betting against Cleveland at a favorite. After their weird winning season in 2007, they’re 4-7 as favorites. Plus, Miami’s offensive coordinator is a former Cleveland assistant. Teams in that situation were 7-3 ATS last season. St. Louis lost in this situation last week, but I think there’s still value in it. It definitely helps in preparation. This line is currently at Miami +3 -130 on Bodog. It’s elsewhere at +1.5 -110. I like getting protection against a field goal win and I’ll pay the extra 20% juice to get that, but I’d bet 3 units on it in either situation.

Tennessee Titans 20 Denver Broncos 16

Pick against spread: Denver +7 (-115) 3 units (+300)

Tennessee was absolutely terrible week 1 losing to Jacksonville 5 days after they had just cut their starting quarterback. And it’s not like Jacksonville’s new signal caller was good or anything. He had a 1.8 QB rating last week against New York with 6 completions and 4 interceptions. However, Tennessee rebounded week 2 beating Baltimore, who had just demolished Pittsburgh by 28 the week before.

However, I’m still not sure Tennessee is very good. Baltimore was probably just really flat last week off of a huge emotional win over the Steelers. I don’t even know why I picked Baltimore (only for 1 unit). I knew Baltimore could be flat off of their win over Pittsburgh. I tweeted last year after the Jets beat the Patriots in the playoffs that teams who win “their Super Bowl” are almost always flat the next week. Hell, I even picked against Houston last week for the same reason I should have picked against Baltimore. Houston had just beaten the shit out of Indy.

All that being said, I don’t think Tennessee is very good at all. Denver sucks too, especially on the road, but I think Tennessee is a 6 win team at the end of the season. Teams who end up winning 6 games are 22-61 ATS since 2002 when favored by 6 or more. This is one of the most powerful trends, when used right. However, especially early in the season, it’s very tough to know which teams are going to go 6-10 or worse. However, these picks are predictions and I predict Tennessee is a 5 or 6 win team. I’m taking Denver for 3 units. This line seems ridiculously high to me anyway. Tennessee isn’t 4 points better than Denver.

Philadelphia Eagles 20 New York Giants 13

Pick against spread: NY Giants +9 (-120) 1 unit (+100)

New York hasn’t had a lot of success against Philadelphia in recent years, but I still think this line is much too high. I think the Eagles are still pretty overrated. Michael Vick is a turnover prone quarterback who struggles against the blitz and as banged up as the Giants are, they can still get after the quarterback. They have 6 sacks in 2 games and one of those games was without Justin Tuck. Osi Umenyiora is still out, but Jason Pierre Paul and Dave Tollefson have filled in nicely.

Besides, divisional underdogs on the road of 7+ are 125-94 ATS since 2002. That’s not a huge trend, but divisional matchups do tend to be closer than most. Besides, Tom Coughlin is 7-4 ATS as 7+ underdogs in his time in New York.

The Eagles have a great defense and their excellent cornerbacks should be able to easily stop the Giants’ passing attack given their lack of depth at receiver thanks to injuries. However, I don’t trust their offense against a New York team that can get pressure and creativity blitz. Also, the trends say New York is the right side. I expect this to be a low scoring game in which New York covers, but at the same time, New York is so banged up right now, I don’t feel comfortable putting more than a unit on this.

Detroit Lions 27 Minnesota Vikings 19

Pick against spread: Detroit -4 (-105) 2 units (-210)

Detroit is favored on the road by 3+, a situation they are a whopping 0-0 in since 1999. That’s right. This is the first time they’ve been favored by 3+ in almost 12 years (week 15 1999 was the last time). Times are changing in the NFL. Detroit is actually good. Like really, really good.

Discounting a garbage time touchdown against Tampa Bay, their defense has allowed 9 points (3 field goals) this year. They have so many offensive weapons (Jahvid Best, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, Nate Burleson, Titus Young), and a great young signal caller in Matt Stafford. This team is the real deal. I have no problem betting them as road favorites against Minnesota, who has to be flat after blowing a big lead (17-0) against Tampa Bay last week.

Carolina Panthers 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Spread: Carolina -4 (-105) 2 units (+200)

I mentioned how good rookie quarterbacks have been week 3 in my Cincinnati/San Francisco pick. Do I think Cam Newton can make it a perfect 7 for 7 with rookie quarterbacks week 3 (provided they started week 1)? I do. Cam Newton is a very good quarterback for the stage in his development he’s in. Carolina hasn’t won yet, but they started the season on the road in Arizona and then faced the defending champs in Carolina last week. A home game against Jacksonville is completely different.

Jacksonville is a mess right now. They could be switching quarterbacks for the 2^nd time in 3 weeks. If they don’t switch quarterbacks, they’re starting a quarterback who is coming off of a game in which he had 6 completions and 4 interceptions. They’re extremely thin at wide receiver and could be thinner if Marcedes Lewis and Jason Hill can’t go again. Their 32^nd ranked secondary from a year ago has had trouble with the likes of Matt Hasselbeck and Mark Sanchez and could again be missing their top defensive back, Derek Cox. I don’t buy that Carolina is only 1 point better than Jacksonville, which is what this line is telling us.

However, there are some trends in play here, but they basically cancel each other out. In the Jack Del Rio era, Jacksonville is 6-2 as a road dog off of a road loss, but they’re also 10-21 against non-divisional opponents in the last 3 plus years. I’m sticking with Carolina for 2.

San Diego Chargers 27 Kansas City Chiefs 17

Pick against spread: Kansas City +15 (-110) 4 units (+400)

The Chiefs suck. They have been outscored 150-30 in their last 4 games that counted. In those 4 games, Matt Cassel is 57-109 for 437 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. They’ve already lost Eric Berry, Tony Moeaki, and Jamaal Charles to injury. However, I really like them this week for many reasons. For one, the Chargers always shoot themselves in the foot in the first half of the season. They almost lost to Minnesota in a game that Donovan McNabb threw for 37 yards and then they lost by 14 to the Patriots in a game that was pretty even yards wise. They might be 12 points better than Kansas City (add 3 for home field), but there’s a very slim chance they play like it.

Also, the Chiefs did make the playoffs last year. Since 2003, teams that have started 0-2 that made the playoffs the year before are 13-7 ATS. I know you’re thinking, yeah but the Chiefs suck. That may be true, but so did the Cowboys and Vikings last year in this same situation and they covered.

Besides, it may be good that they suck. They’re undervalued. For this reason, teams that lose straight up by 28+ are 55-30 ATS since 2002. They have something to prove here after playing terrible for 2 straight weeks. They’re playing to protect their dignity as a team that made the playoffs just last year. They’re also playing to avenge their 31 point loss to San Diego last year. Teams trying to avenge a 14+ point loss to a divisional opponent are 72-47 ATS since 2002.

Meanwhile, San Diego is coming off a crushing loss to the Patriots. There’s no way they play 100% against the lowly Chiefs this week, especially since San Diego typically struggles in the first few weeks of the season. I think we’re getting excellent value with Kansas City -15. I’d put 5 units if I wasn’t afraid the Chiefs come out and simply don’t have the talent to cover and San Diego wins 28-3 or something playing at 75-80% motivation. However, I’m pretty confident Kansas City is the right side here.

New York Jets 23 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spread: Oakland +3.5 (-115) 1 unit (+100)

This was the matchup I had the toughest time with. New York has an awesome defense. Luke McCown sucks, but you don’t hold a quarterback to a 1.8 QB rating if you don’t have an awesome defense. They also are a great run defense and should be able to contain Darren McFadden. This offense goes as McFadden goes as Jason Campbell isn’t much more than a game manager.

However, New York is going to be feeling really good about themselves coming into this game after how well they played last week. They also have the Ravens and the Patriots in consecutive weeks coming up. I doubt they give 100% for the lowly Raiders after traveling 3 time zones. The Raiders aren’t a completely terrible team and the Jets have had some disappointing games in the Rex Ryan era. Besides, New York plays a lot of field goal games. I’m going with Oakland for 1.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick (+165)

Pick against spread: Seattle +3.5 (-115) 3 units (+300)

Seattle has looked dreadful in their first 2 games of the season, losing in San Francisco and then getting crushed in Pittsburgh in a game where they didn’t call their first play in Pittsburgh territory until midway in the 4^th quarter. However, they head home now. This team at home is completely different.

Qwest field is one of the biggest home field advantages in the league. They won a playoff game there last year they had no business winning. They won 5 games there last year despite being so bad on the road that they lost by multiple touchdowns 6 times on the road. Since 2007, they’re 22-12 ATS at home and 10-26 ATS on the road.

Besides, a trend I’ve already mentioned, Seattle is a playoff team from last year that started 0-2. Those teams are 13-7 ATS since 2003. They’re going to want to protect their dignity this week, especially at home. Besides, this is an NFC West matchup. The NFC West sucks. No NFC West team has any right to be road favorites. NFC West teams were 4-8 straight up last year in road divisional matchups, 4-9 if you include Seattle’s trip to San Francisco week 1 this year. If you include 2009, NFC West teams are 9-16 straight up in divisional matchups. The division was also a combined 6-26 straight up on the road last year and they’re already off to a 0-4 start this year on the road.

I don’t care how bad Seattle is. No NFC West team deserves to be favored on the road. Besides, are we even sure Arizona is that good. They almost lost week 1 to Carolina at home and then they lost to Washington last week. They’re not terrible, but I’m not so sure they’re good either. This line says they’re 6.5 points better than Seattle and that’s not including the extra 1-2 points Seattle should get for playing at home. Seattle sucks, but I’m not buying they’re 7 or 8 points worse than Arizona. I’m taking Seattle here and not just to cover, but to win outright. Seattle wins games they don’t deserve to win at home all the time. I think this is another one of those situations.

Baltimore Ravens 27 St. Louis Rams 13 Lock/Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Baltimore -4 (-110) 3 units (+300)

Jon Gruden made what I thought was an interesting point during the Monday Night Game. He said, I would not want to play a Tom Coughlin team after a bad loss. He said this as New York was up 12 after getting destroyed in Washington as road favorites the week before. This made sense, so I looked up if there were any trends related to it. Here’s what I found. Off of a loss as a favorite, the Giants are 11-9 straight up and 11-9 ATS in the Tom Coughlin era. Looks like Jon Gruden was wrong, at least with that.

He then said that St. Louis has to play Baltimore in their next game and he would not want to face a John Harbaugh team after a bad loss. Baltimore is coming off of a loss as a road favorite to Tennessee. Lo and behold, Gruden was right. In the John Harbaugh era, Baltimore is 4-1 SU and ATS off of a loss as favorites. They’re going to be a tough team this week. John Harbaugh is not going to be happy after the way they performed last week. They’re going to be 100% ready for St. Louis this week.

St. Louis, meanwhile, could be really flat. They’re coming off of a loss on Monday Night Football of 10+. Teams in this situation are 33-57 ATS since 2002. They’re playing terrible football right now, making mistakes left and right. They have tons of injuries and Sam Bradford is cracking under the pressure of having to do it all by himself in just his 2^nd year in the league. I like Baltimore to bounce back and win in their 2^nd straight game as road favorites.

 

Green Bay Packers 27 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against spread: Green Bay -4 (-105) 2 units (+200)

Remember when Chicago looked like the real deal week 1? Good times. The Bears got destroyed 30-13 in New Orleans last week despite jumping out to an early 7 point lead. It was 16-10 at the half and I stopped paying much attention to the game in the 2^nd half, but literally every time I looked up, Cutler was either on the ground or running for his life. He was sacked 6 times and pressured on almost every play and that was a New Orleans team that was playing without its top pass rusher Will Smith. He was seen on the sideline noticeably frustrated with his supporting cast. That can’t be good for team morale.

On top of that, rookie right tackle Gabe Carimi is going to miss at least a week with an injury. Once Carimi left last week, things went from bad to worse on that line. With Clay Matthews and company coming to Chicago this week, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if we saw a repeat of the Chicago/New York game last year where Cutler was sacked 10 times. Green Bay’s defense hasn’t looked great so far this season, but they played Drew Brees week 1 in a shootout and then Carolina last week in a game they weren’t that focused for. They’ll be focused for this divisional clash against the team that actually won the division last year.

I’m at the point again where I can’t bet heavily on Chicago anymore. The Packers are road favorites here which is something to worry about, but by all indications, they deserve to be. Aaron Rodgers has been on fire since midway through last season and doesn’t appear to be letting up. I can’t see this game even being close. The Packers outplayed the Bears in all three meetings last year, only losing in Chicago week 3 by 3 last year in a game they had 18 penalties. Unless that happens again, we should be fine betting on Green Bay.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Atlanta Falcons 24

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay -1 (-105) 2 units (+200)

After looking terrible against Chicago in the opener, the Falcons rebounded against Philadelphia last week. However, I’m not so sure everything is okay for the Falcons again. It’s clear they aren’t the team they were a year ago. They needed a Vick injury to beat Philadelphia and they looked horrible against Chicago. Their offensive line isn’t as good with the loss of Harvey Dahl and left tackle Sam Baker seems to have gotten worse in the offseason. Trent Cole beat him on almost every play last week.

Besides, Atlanta is a bad team on the road. They’re a mere 13-13 straight up on the road in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. This is as opposed to 21-5 at home in that same period, since 2008. I don’t know if they can go into Tampa Bay and win, which they’ll have to do to cover this week. They also could be flat after an emotional win last week. They really wanted to beat Philadelphia after all the “dream team” talk and after Philadelphia beat them last year. It’s going to be hard for them to maintain that intensity against Tampa Bay. That’s why I like Tampa Bay to win and thus cover against an even spread.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +11 (-115) 4 units (+400)

Is it possible to win MVP if you don’t even play a snap? If so, Peyton Manning deserves to win MVP. Don’t worry Colts fans. Your team is going to be this bad all season. They still have talent, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, Gary Brackett, etc. Kerry Collins is playing terrible right now, but he’s historically a slow starter and he was retired about a month ago. He’s going to take a little bit to warm up. Once he does, the Colts should win 5 or 6 games. I don’t buy the notion that this team is in the Andrew Luck race. Actually, that might be bad news for Colts’ fans.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, recovered last week from an embarrassing 35-7 loss in Baltimore to the rival Ravens week 1, taking out all their aggression against the lowly Seahawks, who didn’t call a play in Pittsburgh territory until midway through the 4^th quarter. However, now they go back on the road.

I’ve mentioned it twice before and I’ll mention it again. Teams that made the playoffs the year before are 13-7 ATS week 3 if they’ve started 0-2. Besides, Indianapolis is only the 4^th team in the last 2 seasons to be 10 point home dogs. Carolina was 12 point home dogs against Baltimore with Brian St. Pierre at quarterback. Seattle was 10 point home dogs against New Orleans in the playoffs. Carolina was 11 point home dogs against Green Bay last week.

The Seattle playoff game was a trap line. Carolina deserved to be 12 point home dogs with St. Pierre, but not 11 point home dogs with Newton last week. Do the Colts deserve to be 11 point home dogs here? I’m not so sure. I think this line is playing off of the public’s belief that the Colts are 2-14 or 3-13 bad. The public is falling into it as most of the money is on Pittsburgh so far.

More evidence it could be a trap line, Pittsburgh is not good as big road favorites, a mere 2-5 ATS in the Mike Tomlin era as 7+ point favorites. This makes sense. Pittsburgh has never had a high scoring offense or anything. They play and win a lot of close games. I think they’ll play and win a close game here, with Indianapolis playing for their pride at home on Sunday Night Football. Given that, I think Indianapolis covers this spread.

Washington Redskins 27 Dallas Cowboys 21 Upset Pick (+145)

Pick against spread: Washington +3.5 (-110) 2 units

Romo is expected to play here and the line is set at Dallas -3.5 at home. However, Romo won’t be 100%. He’s got bad ribs and if he takes a shot, it could knock him out and bring Jon Kitna in. On top of that, Romo will also be missing his trusty wide out Miles Austin and Dez Bryant and Felix Jones, though expected to play, won’t be 100% either with injuries. Their also have injuries in an already thin secondary.

They choked in New York week 1 and lost and needed to mount a huge comeback to win in San Francisco against the lowly Niners last week, despite dominating the yardage totals. This team doesn’t deserve to be more than 3 point favorites against a Washington team that is playing well right now.

Besides, home favorites after a 1-3 point road win are 48-71 ATS since 2002. Teams tend not to give as much effort the week after a close road win and tend not to cover as favorites. You might think it’d be different with a divisional opponent, but it’s not. Teams in this situation are 14-25 ATS, possibly because divisional opponents tend to be tougher than most. I like the Redskins here straight up and ATS.

This line opened at -4 earlier today. It’s moved to -3.5 (-110) and -3 (-125) now, which suggests that Vegas wants more people to bet on Dallas. I’m not falling for it. As long as I have protection from this being a field goal win by Dallas, I’m taking Washington so I think them -3.5 (-110). I’m also taking them to win straight up. 

LV Hilton Super Contest Picks (for anyone playing): Buffalo +8, Kansas City +14, Indianapolis +10.5, Seattle +3.5,  Cincinnati -2.5 (4-6 on the season)

 

 

 

32. Seattle Seahawks 0-1

Going into the season, I identified Jacksonville, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Seattle, Carolina, Oakland, and Miami as the worst teams in the league. Jacksonville, San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Oakland all won, while Carolina and Miami each saw their starting quarterback throw for 400+ yards in a loss. That just leaves Seattle. Seattle…well they are who we thought they were. Tarvaris Jackson was 21 of 37 for 197 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 pick against the lowly 49ers’ defense. Now he has to go to Pittsburgh to face the pissed off Steelers coming off a week 1 loss to their division rival. That should be fun to watch.

31. San Francisco 49ers 1-0

The 49ers won this week. So why are they #31? Well I thought they’d be terrible coming into the season and the team they beat week 1 was Seattle, the #32 team on this list. In fact, until Ted Ginn decided to score 2 special teams touchdowns in just over a minute, the 49ers led by a mere 2 points late in the 4^th quarter at home over those lowly Seahawks. They get Dallas this week in San Francisco, a lucky situation. Dallas could be missing its top 3 cornerbacks from an already weak secondary, while the 49ers are in the 2^nd of back-to-back home games to start the season, a situation that normally produces a win. My money’s still against them, but we’ll see.

30. Denver Broncos 0-1

TEBOW TEBOW TEBOW. I don’t understand why they don’t start Tim Tebow. I can kind of understand starting Kyle Orton before the season. If you think he gives you the best chance to win and you see yourself contending this year, you make that decision. No one else saw them contending this year, but it’s possible that John Fox and company were more optimistic. However, they sucked in their opening loss to the Raiders. They’re not going to contend this season at all. Why not see what Tebow has? Orton is not the future at quarterback. Tebow might be. Worst case scenario, they can move on after the season and they’d probably be in position for one of the top 3 quarterbacks in the 2012 NFL Draft.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars 1-0

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-0 in the Jack Del Rio era the same week they cut their starting quarterback. What a weird organization! I had Jacksonville 32^nd going into week 1. They move up a little bit, but not much. Their defense looked decent, but Matt Hasselbeck is hardly an elite quarterback and he was still able to post up decent numbers because Rashean Mathis couldn’t figure out how to stop Kenny Britt. Besides, Tennessee sucks.

28. Kansas City Chiefs 0-1

I’ve been calling this team a fraud all along. They proved it last week. The Bills are terrible, but losing 41-7 to a team that’s probably not going to make the playoffs is embarrassing. In their last 3 real games, they’ve been outscored 102-27 and Matt Cassel is 42 of 87 for 304 yards, 1 touchdown, and 6 picks. On top of that, Eric Berry is done for the year and they still have a brutal schedule. It’s very possible everyone is fired after the season and Matt Cassel is cut and replaced with a rookie quarterback of the new regime’s choosing.

27. Cincinnati Bengals 1-0

Andy Dalton didn’t play well in the opener. He was 10 of 15 for just 81 yards and a score before getting hurt (a minor injury). However, the Bengals were able to win because the offensive line, including Andre Smith finally, played well and allowed Cedric Benson to rush for 121 yards and a score on 25 carries against Cleveland’s miserable front 7. They face another miserable front 7 this week against Denver and could actually start the season 2-0, but I don’t like their chances of long term success this season. 2^nd round pick quarterbacks rarely do much in the NFL and a 2^nd round pick quarterback having any success as a rookie is pretty much unheard of.

26. Carolina Panthers 0-1

Cam Newton threw for a rookie record 422 yards last week, doing so on the road, after a lockout, after only 14 college starts. Arizona’s pass defense sucks, but a lot of that had to do with Newton. He’s pretty good. The bad news is they still lost and they lost a key defensive player in Jon Beason for the season. This is still far from a complete football team. It’s good to see Steve Smith has finally started trying again, however.

25. Oakland Raiders 1-0

I love people who overreact to one week. My friend is a Raiders fan and I bet him $30 to win $25 that the Raiders win fewer than 9 games. The Raiders won week 1, but the Broncos suck and the Raiders still had more penalties and penalty yards and than completions and passing yards. Plus, the Raiders were over/under 6.5 wins before the season. I basically got over/under 8.5 wins after one win. I love this. The Raiders are screwed once they face a team with a decent run defense. Jason Campbell isn’t very good. Also, their defense will show how much it misses Nnamdi Asomugha once it plays a decent offense.

24. Indianapolis Colts 0-1

Everyone who wants to anoint the Colts as a 0-16 team should calm down for a little bit. Kerry Collins is traditionally a slow starter and he was retired about 3 weeks ago. There’s no way he has the playbook down yet. He also traditionally sucks against Wade Phillips. They’ll win some games this year, but not a lot and not for a while. After Cleveland this week, they have to play Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. They also play New Orleans early.

23. Tennessee Titans 0-1

The Titans sucked last week, losing to the Jaguars 5 days after the Jaguars cut their starting quarterback. Chris Johnson couldn’t run, rushing for 24 yards on 9 carries. This was a combination of him being rusty after his holdout and the Titans failing to upgrade the offensive front in the offseason. He also couldn’t get into a rhythm because the Titans didn’t run very much. Matt Hasselbeck didn’t look as good as his line suggested. He looked like a 36 year old quarterback who had 7 weeks to learn a new offense, probably because he is a 36 year old quarterback who had 7 weeks to learn a new offense. He was helped out a lot by Kenny Britt, who dominated his matchup with Rashean Mathis. In fact, Kenny Britt was the only Titan who had a good week last week. Their defense didn’t play well either.

22. Miami Dolphins 0-1

Chad Henne may have thrown for 416 yards last week, but the Patriots defense didn’t play well. He was also helped by several great plays by his receivers and most of those yards were in garbage time. He still had a good week, but he’s also notoriously inconsistent from week to week. Let’s see how he does against Houston this week before we call him a legitimate starting quarterback.

21. Minnesota Vikings 0-1

Donovan McNabb threw for 39 yards last week. They kept the game close because of a Percy Harvin kick return touchdown and a good day by Adrian Peterson, but if McNabb can’t play better in the future, this team isn’t going to win a lot of games and it’ll be Christian Ponder’s turn a lot quicker than they would have liked.

20. New York Giants 0-1

Normally strong in the first half of the season, the Giants looked terrible against Washington. Injuries have clearly done them in and now Hakeem Nicks is probably out this week against St. Louis. Combine early season injuries with a brutal 2^nd half schedule (@ New England, @ San Francisco, vs. Philadelphia, @ New Orleans, vs. Green Bay, @ Dallas, vs. Washington, @ the Jets, vs. Dallas), and the fact that this team might not even be that great at full strength after losing Kevin Boss, Steve Smith, Shaun O’Hara, Rich Seubert, and Barry Cofield this offseason, and you get a team that could easily finish 6-10 or worse.

19. Washington Redskins 1-0

Rex Grossman threw for 305 yards week 1. Donovan McNabb threw for 39. It was a good week for Mike Shanahan. I’ll admit it, I thought Mike Shanahan was losing it when he benched Donovan McNabb after trading a 2^nd and 4^th rounder for him and replacing him with Rex Grossman, a former first round pick bust. However, Grossman is an excellent fit for his system and he appears to be a much more mature quarterback than his last go round as a starter. Shanahan has won 2 Super Bowls before and turned Jake Plummer’s career around. Now it appears he’s done the same for Grossman. This team is a legitimate playoff contender.

18. Buffalo Bills 1-0

After 1 week Ryan Fitzpatrick leads the league in QB rating. Now I’ve seen everything. He’s not going to throw for 4 touchdowns every week. That was a combination of a good day, some luck, and an absolutely pitiful performance by the Chiefs’ entire team. However, Fitzpatrick is in his first full season as a starter and his 2^nd year in Chan Gailey’s offense and he looks like a decent quarterback. Combine that with a stronger front 7 with rookie Marcell Dareus and a revitalized Shawne Merriman to go with stud nose tackle Kyle Williams, and you’ve got a team that could win 7 to 9 games over a weak schedule.

17. Arizona Cardinals 1-0

Whoops, I guess you need more than a quarterback to be an elite team in this league. The Cardinals have to be very concerned with their pass defense after allowing a rookie record 422 yards to Cam Newton in the opener. They had a mere 33 sacks last season and their pass rush doesn’t look any better this season. They’re starting a rookie cornerback in Patrick Peterson, a random nobody in Al Jefferson, a banged up Adrian Wilson, and an overrated Kerry Rhodes, with the terrible Richard Marshall manning the nickel back position. They also didn’t fix a leaky offensive line that starts two of the worst starting tackles in the league in Levi Brown and Brandon Keith. If they make the playoffs, it’s because their schedule is a joke and so is their division.

 

16. Cleveland Browns 0-1

I don’t like to overreact to one week, but after predicting the Browns to make the playoffs powered by a weak schedule, I’m sinking Cleveland pretty far after an ugly week 1 loss to the lowly Bengals. They still have an extremely weak schedule (@ Indianapolis, vs. Miami, vs. Tennessee, @ Oakland, vs. Seattle, @ San Francisco in their next 6 games), but all of a sudden some of those games don’t seem like gimmes any more. Colt McCoy completed a mere 19 of his 40 passing attempts, making me look stupid for going back on my “Colt McCoy will not be a starting caliber quarterback in the NFL” prediction from draft season 2010, while a patchwork front 7 gave up 121 yards and a score on 25 carries to Cedric Benson. I’m keeping them in the mix for one more week.

15. St. Louis Rams 0-1

Is there some sort of curse on St. Louis wide receivers? After losing Mark Clayton, Donnie Avery, and Danario Alexander to injuries in 2010, an already thin receiving corps in 2011 loses Danny Amendola for a long time with a dislocated elbow. On top of that, the Rams lost Steven Jackson for at least a week, Ron Bartell for the season, Bradley Fletcher for at least a week, and possibly Jason Smith for a week. Missing their two top cornerbacks from an already thin secondary, the Rams will probably start the ancient Al Harris at cornerback this week. With how bad the Cardinals pass defense is and how bad the 49ers and Seahawks are in general, I get the feeling we could see yet another 7 win division champion in the NFC West.

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-1

I wouldn’t put too much into their week 1 home loss. They were a mere 4-4 at home last year, as opposed to 6-2 on the road, and the Lions are a legitimate playoff team. They get to go to Minnesota this week and should take care of business on the road against a Minnesota team whose starting quarterback threw for 39 yards last week. However, they do have a tough schedule this season and the NFC is stacked this year so I have them on the outside looking in.

13. Pittsburgh Steelers 0-1

We haven’t seen a team lose in the Super Bowl and then win the Super Bowl in the next season since the 1972-73 Dolphins. If the Steelers’ 35-7 week 1 loss to the Ravens is any indication, that streak will be alive another season. The Steelers kept another streak or rather trend alive week 1. Super Bowl runner ups are now 3-15 against the spread week 1 in their last 18 instances. I’m feeling pretty good about putting the Steelers at 9 wins this season. The last 10 Super Bowl runner ups have made the playoffs 3 times for a combined 1 playoff win.

12. Chicago Bears 1-0

Maybe all that criticism actually got to Jay Cutler, who went 22-32 for 312 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick in a week 1 win against the Falcons. Their offensive line also didn’t look god awful in their 2^nd year under the great Mike Tice. Unfortunately, the NFC is as talented as it’s ever been, Green Bay, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Dallas could all contend for playoff spots, not to mention that someone has to win the NFC West. The Bears brutal schedule (games against New Orleans, Green Bay twice, Detroit twice, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, and San Diego) might be what keeps them out.

11. Dallas Cowboys 0-1

Everyone’s blaming Romo for that week 1 loss. Yes that late pick was ugly, but he also threw for 342 yards and 2 scores against a good New York defense. Besides, he wasn’t even on the field when the Cowboys had a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. Still, they definitely have to be concerned after imploding against the Jets. They thought this was over with when they fired Wade Phillips, but after a fumble on the goal line, a blocked punt, a late pick cost them the lead and a penalty and a botched snap on the potential winning drive killed their chances of getting back into it, it’s clear they still have a case of the choksies.

10. New York Jets 1-0

The Jets had that game gift wrapped and handed to them. Maybe it was good karma on the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. Maybe the Cowboys are just terrible in the clutch. Either way, the Jets should still be concerned that the Cowboys outplayed them for 50 minutes. After losing Shaun Ellis, Braylon Edwards, Jason Taylor, Brad Smith, Jerricho Cotchery, and Damien Woody in the offseason, it was predictable that this team would take a slight step back. By all indications, they have. They’re a solid team, but you can’t call them elite.

9. Atlanta Falcons 0-1

The Falcons have never been a good outdoors team in the Matt Ryan era, but if they can’t continue their home dominance week 2 against a very good Philadelphia team, they could find themselves in a 0-2 hole they can’t dig out of. However, since the “Dream Team” can’t protect its quarterback or stop the run, and it’s quarterback completed just 14 for 32 against a banged up St. Louis secondary, and it’s #2 receiver is still not in shape, I like the Falcons’ chances at home where they’ve lost a mere 3 times in the Matt Ryan era (including the playoffs).

8. Detroit Lions 1-0

The Lions have to be happy that their defense gave up a total of 6 points, not including a garbage time touchdown, to a very solid offensive bunch in Tampa Bay. They should also be happy Matt Stafford’s shoulder is still in one piece. Of course, he didn’t take a single sack, but that could also be seen as a good thing. Tampa Bay doesn’t have a great pass rush, but Detroit’s offensive front still looked good week 1, allowing Matt Stafford to complete 24 of 33 for 305 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a pick. That pick six by Stafford and a garbage time touchdown were really the only flaws in Detroit’s 27-20 win over a solid Tampa Bay bunch. By all this indications, this team is as good as advertised.

7. San Diego Chargers 1-0

Good thing the Chargers won, otherwise they would have lost back to back season openers to quarterbacks that threw for 68 yards and 39 yards respectively. I haven’t looked it up, but I’m willing to bet that doesn’t happen very often. The Chargers had to be having déjà vu of their week 1 loss to Kansas City last year. Kansas City won 21-14 on a punt return touchdown, a long run, and a pick six. Minnesota scored 17 points on a kick return touchdown and a long run that set up a short touchdown pass, but San Diego held on for the win 24-17.

6. Houston Texans 1-0

We’ll see what this team can do against a team that didn’t wake their quarterback up from retirement 3 weeks ago. This week they face Chad Henne and the Dolphins. Well, maybe we’ll wait until week 3 to make an accurate assessment of Houston’s defense. Drew Brees and the Saints in New Orleans week 3 should provide a big enough challenge for this Wade Phillips coached defense. Let’s see if they can rise to it. If they can, this is a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

5. Baltimore Ravens 1-0

You think the Ravens loved kicking the Steelers’ butts? They went for 2 on a fake kick up 27-7 and went for it on 4^th down up 29-7. The Ravens have to hope they’re not sluggish after essentially winning their Super Bowl. Fortunately for them, their next “test” is the lowly Titans. I think they should be fine. This team won 12 games last year and by all indications they should win around that many again this year. Pittsburgh looks to be in a down year once again so Baltimore is the favorite to win this division.

4. Philadelphia Eagles 1-0

The “dream team’s” 100 million dollar quarterback went 14 for 32 against a banged up Rams secondary. Vick didn’t look good this preseason. Needless to say, that could be a problem. They also couldn’t stop the run. Steven Jackson had 56 yards on just 2 carries before he got hurt and then Cadillac Williams, who was terrible last year, ran for 91 yards on 19 carries. Needless to say, that could be a problem. Their offensive line didn’t play well either. Needless to say, that could be a problem. Now they have to go to Altanta with Jeremy Maclin still not 100%. They could easily end up 1-1 at the end of the week.

3. New Orleans Saints 0-1

Drew Brees shouldn’t feel too bad that he isn’t as good as Aaron Rodgers. Very few are. However, teams that lose the Thursday Opener are 2-5 week 2 since 2004. The Saints do go home, but they have to be careful not to overlook the Bears, who are coming off a demolition of the Falcons in Chicago. If there’s any hangover after a crushing loss to the Packers, they could be in danger of going 0-2.

2. Green Bay Packers 1-0

Sorry to rain on Packers fans’ parade, but your defense just allowed 419 yards after struggling in the preseason. I know Drew Brees is awesome, but 419 yards is a lot. Now they have to face Cam Newton who was very impressive in his first career game last week. Besides, Super Bowl champions who win week 1 tend to struggle week 2. The party is officially over for them. They won the Super Bowl. They did the victory offseason thing. They won their home opener over a good team in a thrilling fashion. They’re on top of the world. Look for Carolina to possibly knock them off a little bit.

1. New England Patriots 1-0

Somewhere Deion Branch is still burning Nolan Carroll in coverage. How good was the Patriots’ passing attack week 1? Deion Branch had 7 catches for 93 yards, he was 3^rd on the team in receiving. Wes Welker has 8 catches for 160 yards and 2 scores. Aaron Hernandez had 7 catches for 103 yards and a score. Rob Gronkowski had 6 catches for 86 yards and a score. Tom Brady had the 5^th most passing yards in a single game ever with 517 yards. He was also only sacked once. The defense is a concern. If Chad Henne can throw for 416 yards against them, Philip Rivers has a chance at 700 (only slightly kidding) this week in New England. However, I trust BB to make the necessary adjustments at home. I still really like this team.

 

 

All spreads from Bodog, all money lines from 5dimes

Last week overall: 8-8

Last week ATS: 6-9-1 (-920/-7 units)

Overall picks: 8-8 (.500)

ATS Picks: 6-9-1 (-920/-7 units)

Lock picks: 1-0

Upset picks: 1-3 (-105)

I sucked last week. I’m sorry. Weeks like this happen, especially week 1. I put a lot of work into making sure this week is better. I researched more trends and found a continuous problem I had betting on road favorites, typically not a lucrative situation. I also have a better feel for the teams. So let’s see how this turns out. Remember, if you had listened to me all last year, you would have made an amount of money greater in size to your original bankroll. You do not need an online masters in criminal justice to make your football betting decisions, just a little time and research. There are a lot of people online with advice for this but I know the teams and games and plan to have a great year. Even with a MBA information technology and limitless information on the internet, it all comes down to how much you know about the game. So hang with me. 

New Orleans Saints 23 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against spread: Chicago +7 (-120) 3 units (-360)

This is a matchup of the team that finished 2^nd in the NFC South in 2010 and the team that finished 1^st in the NFC North in 2010. Chicago is coming off a win against the team that finished 1^st in the NFC South in 2010 and New Orleans is coming off a loss to the team that finished 2^nd in the NFC North in 2010. New Orleans doesn’t stand a chance right? Wrong. Though the Saints finished 2^nd in the NFC South last year, they look like the best team in the division right now as Atlanta continued its late season struggles from 2010 in week 1 of this season. Meanwhile, the Bears are the 2^nd best team in the NFC North at best after Green Bay won the Super Bowl last year. The Saints are also at home in this game, where they don’t often lose.

However, I’m not so sure the Saints will cover. The Saints haven’t fared well as 7+ point favorites in the past 2 years. They’re 6-12 ATS in that situation. They’re also coming off an emotional loss to the Packers in the season opener. Since the 2004, when the NFL started having the Super Bowl champion play on the opening Thursday night, teams coming off a week 1 Thursday night loss are a mere 2-5 ATS in the next week. Meanwhile, Chicago looks to have fixed things up in the offseason. Their offensive line isn’t quite as bad and Jay Cutler looks like a completely different quarterback and one I’m no longer terrified to bet on, especially as an underdog. I don’t think they’re 4 points worse than the Saints like this line suggests.

Detroit Lions 27 Kansas City Chiefs 10

Pick against spread: Detroit -9 (-105) 1 unit (+100)

The Bills +6 over the Chiefs were my big play week 1, but even I didn’t expect the outcome of that game. The Bills dominated the Chiefs 41-7, meaning in the Chiefs last 3 games that mattered (week 17 last season against Oakland, AFC Wild Card against Baltimore, and the opener this year against Buffalo), they have been outscored by 102-24. I’m actually not happy they lost by that much. They have been exposed as complete frauds after somehow making the playoffs last season. I no longer feel like have some sort of secret. There’s not going to be as much value betting against them going forward this year. In one week, they go from 6 point favorites over a 4 win team from 2010 to 9 point underdogs to a 6 win team from 2010.

Granted, the Lions, that 6 win team, are better than that would suggest. Matt Stafford is back and healthy and they appear to have one of the better passing attacks in the league. They also have a fantastic pass rush. This is the type of game Kansas City does horribly in. The Lions could jump out to an early lead, aiding by the Chiefs missing safety Eric Berry for the season, force the Chiefs to give up on their bread and butter, the run, and allow the Lions’ pass rush to gun for Cassel on every play. Cassel doesn’t do well under pressure and the Chiefs offensive line is ridiculously terrible.

However, I’m a bit nervous about betting the Lions as 9 point favorites. This is a situation they haven’t been in since 2000 (they didn’t cover) and they’ve struggled mightily as a favorite of any kind in recent years (4-7 ATS). However, they’re also much more talented than they’ve been in recent years and the Chiefs flat out suck. They covered on several occasions as favorites last season, including week 17 against the Vikings. In fact, they’ve actually covered in their last 3 instances as favorites. They’re getting better and it shows.

New York Jets 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 12

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +9 (-105) 2 units (-210)

The Jets pulled out another close win last week against the Cowboys. I don’t know how they do it. They always seem to pull one out right at the end and I think it’s time we stopped seeing them as just lucky, but rather a team that’s just good at pulling out close wins. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars won this week just 5 days after cutting their starting quarterback. For those of you keeping track, the Jaguars are now 2-0 straight up the week after they cut their starting quarterback in the Jack Del Rio era. What a weird organization!

The Jets may be great at pulling out close wins, but they aren’t small favorites here. They’re favored by 9 points. They won 13 games last season, including the playoffs. 4 of those wins were by more than 9 points (New England week 2 before they got everything together, the then winless Bills week 4, the lowly Bengals week 12 in a game they trailed at half time, and the Bills again week 17 in a weird game where they didn’t even play their starters). Winning big is just not this team’s MO. In the Rex Ryan era, they’re 1-3 ATS as 7+ point favorites. If it wasn’t for the Jaguars poor ATS record out of the division (10-20 ATS since 2008), this would be a bigger play.

Buffalo Bills 27 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against spread: Buffalo -3.5 (+100) 4 units (-400)

I’m surprised Buffalo isn’t a bigger favorite here. They’re coming off a 34 point victory over the Chiefs and yet they’re only 3.5 point favorites here at home over a Raider team that had more penalties and penalty yards than completions and passing yards last week (15 penalties for 131 yards, 13 completions for 105 yards). Vegas is obviously not sold on Buffalo yet. I think there’s still value with them.

By all indications, this is a 7 to 9 win team. They’re not terrible anymore. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a decent quarterback at worst and they have a rebuilt front 7 with Marcell Dareus and the resurrection of Shawne Merriman. They’re not just a half point better than Oakland which is what this line is saying (remember, 3 points are added since the Bills are at home).

On top of all this, the Raiders have a short week after Monday Night Football, and have to play a 1 PM game in the eastern time zone as a west coast team, a situation that isn’t kind to teams, including the Raiders. They’re 1-4 ATS in these situations in the past 2 years. On top of this, they’re coming off a close (3 points or less) road win. Teams in this situation are 23-47 ATS since 2000.

 

Washington Redskins 31 Arizona Cardinals 23

Pick against spread: Washington -4.5 (-105) 2 units (-210)

I’ll admit it. I thought Mike Shanahan was losing it when he benched Donovan McNabb, who he had acquired for a 2^nd and a 4^th round pick, for Rex Grossman, a former bust first round pick. Last week, Rex Grossman threw for 305 yards in a win. Donovan McNabb threw for 39 in a loss. Whoops! Anyway, Rex Grossman should have another strong game. The Cardinals gave up 422 passing yards to Cam Newton, a rookie quarterback with 14 college starts on the road in a lockout shortened offseason. They can’t get to the quarterback and they can’t cover anyone.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are playing a 1 PM ET time game on the East Coast as a West Coast team. This is a situation teams are 33-52 ATS in since 2003. The Cardinals are 1-5 in this situation in the past 3 years. Also, I’m not sure this line is right. The Redskins are only 1.5 point better than Arizona? Really. Kevin Kolb is a decent quarterback, but they have no pass defense and a terrible offensive front. This is far from a complete team, while the Redskins looked very good last week. They’re also in their 2^nd straight home game. Teams who start the season with two straight home games are 19-11 ATS since 2000.

Baltimore Ravens 20 Tennessee Titans 9

Pick against spread: Baltimore -6.5 (-105) 1 unit (-105)

I don’t like betting on road favorites, especially road favorites of 3+. That has been one of my mistakes in the past and I’m hoping to clean that up. The reason betting on road favorites is not lucrative is simple. They’re typically trap bets. You see, NY Giants -3 over Washington at Washington and say, wow New York is definitely 3 points better than Washington and bet it. However, you forget to take home field fully into account. That line actually means New York is 6 points better than Washington. Plus, home underdogs tend to play with a chip on their shoulder.

However, but I’m not betting on the Titans. The Titans suck. Matt Hasselbeck didn’t look good in the opener, which makes sense because he’s almost 36 old and learning a completely new offense in 7 weeks after spending most of his career in Seattle. Chris Johnson didn’t look great, partly because they didn’t fix their terrible offensive line in the offseason, and partly because he held out in the offseason and didn’t get to practice with the team. Their defense also didn’t play well. Kenny Britt was seriously the only Titans who had a good week last week.

Meanwhile, Baltimore cemented themselves as one of the elites in the league last week. They won 12 games last year and after blowing out the Steelers by 4 touchdowns last week, they look poised to win that many games again. I’m taking them but only for a unit.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Seattle Seahawks 9 Lock Pick

Pick against spread: Seattle +15 (-110) 3 units (-330)

The Steelers lost by 28 points last week and yet they come back this week and are favored by 15 points. I know the Seahawks are bad, but most teams who are double digit underdogs against a team coming off a loss are and those teams are 62-36 ATS since 2002. Besides, it’s not like the Steelers possess an explosive offense or anything. They ranked 12^th in points last year. I don’t like taking teams like this as big favorites. The only reason this isn’t a 4 or 5 unit pick is because it’s the Seahawks. They suck. For this reason, the Steelers are actually my straight up lock pick this week. Tarvaris Jackson vs. the Steelers? Anyone give him any chance to win? I didn’t think so.

Green Bay Packers 31 Carolina Panthers 23

Pick against spread: Carolina +10.5 (-115) 3 units (+300)

The Packers won the Super Bowl last year. They spent the offseason celebrating capped off with a win week 1 at home against the Saints in the first NFL regular season game of the season. This is a pretty familiar story. The last 7 Super Bowl champions have done it. They win the Super Bowl, they celebrate, they win week 1 in front of an emotional home crowd.

Then what? Well, of those 7 Super Bowl champions, only two covered the next week. They get knocked back to reality so to speak. The Packers are riding high right now. It’s safe to say the Packers probably won’t put forth much effort against the lowly Panthers. I also like that this line is so big. Betting on home double digit underdogs, isn’t necessarily a highly lucrative situation, but in certain cases I think it is, and this is one of them.

Their pass defense looks like it could be a legitimate problem this season. Drew Brees threw for 419 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no picks last week against them. I realize Drew Brees is really good, but there’s still reason to be concerned there. Cam Newton should have a decent game against them after setting the rookie passing yards record on the road last week. That’ll keep this one close.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Minnesota Vikings 13 Upset Pick (+140)

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +3 (-110) 4 units (+400)

The Buccaneers and the Vikings are equal? Huh? That’s what this line says. The Vikings lost in San Diego in a game where Donovan McNabb threw for 39 yards. 39 yards! If it wasn’t for a Percy Harvin return and a huge game by Adrian Peterson (only 98 yards, but that’s very impressive considering he only got 16 carries and the Vikings were unable to get in a rhythm running the ball trailing for most of the game).

I don’t know if he can count on both of those things this week. Harvin obviously isn’t going to return a touchdown every week. He’s not that good. No one is. Meanwhile, Peterson is really, really good, but with the exception of one 46 yard run, he had 52 yards on 15 carries last week. This isn’t a knock on Peterson’s talent, but Minnesota’s offensive line is horrible. He’s talented enough to break a big one every once in a while, but he’ll struggle on most carries between the tackles because of his blocking. Take away that kick return and that 46 yard Peterson run, which set up a 3 yard McNabb touchdown throw, and the Vikings score 3 points last week.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers almost beat Detroit last week. Detroit is a good team. A lot of people will say, they lost at home, they’re an iffy bet on the road, even against the lowly Vikings. Well, those people would have lost a lot of money on this team last year. The Bucs were a mere 4-4 at home, but somehow went 6-2 on the road. They beat New Orleans in New Orleans and hung within a touchdown of Atlanta and Baltimore on their home fields.

They also only lost once last year to a sub .500 team (Detroit who was in the middle of a 4 game winning streak). Minnesota is almost certainly a sub .500 team. Oh, and they got better in the offseason with key guys coming back from injury and a strong draft. They should have no problem this week.

Cleveland Browns 24 Indianapolis Colts 19

Pick against spread: Cleveland -3 (+110) 1 unit (+100)

Remember when I had the Browns winning 11 games on the strength of a weak schedule and making the playoffs. Good times. They still have an easy schedule, but all of a sudden, the Peyton Manning less Colts, the Dolphins, the Titans, the Raiders, the Seahawks, and the Jaguars don’t seem like such easy games if you can’t beat the Bengals. Colt McCoy had a great preseason, but couldn’t even complete 50% of his passes in the opener (19-40), while the Browns’ weak front 7 made Cedric Benson look like…well not Cedric Benson.

I’m picking the Browns here. I don’t like overreacting to one week and I think the Browns could still have a decent season with how easy their schedule is. The Colts aren’t any good either. Kerry Collins is a traditionally slow starter and probably doesn’t have the playbook completely down yet. They won’t go 0-16 like some are saying. They’ll win some games, but they’ll come later in the season. However, I’m not putting any more than a unit on this. I don’t trust the Browns right now.

Miami Dolphins 23 Houston Texans 20 Upset Pick (+130)

Pick against spread: Miami +3 (-110) 3 units (-330)

Home underdog alert, that would be Miami in this case. However, they lost as a home underdog last week, so they’ll lose this week too right? Not so fast. Not only are teams who open the season with two straight home games 19-11 ATS week 2 since 2000, the Dolphins are home underdogs in back-to-back weeks. They haven’t had to leave home yet and they’re angry and motivated by being underdogs at home in back to back weeks.

Meanwhile, the Texans are coming off an emotional blowout victory over the Indianapolis Colts. I know Peyton Manning didn’t play, but that didn’t matter. They ran the score up in that game. They wanted that win so badly. Now they have a relatively easy test against Miami before playing the Saints and the Steelers. They won’t be 100%.

Also, there’s a chance Arian Foster won’t play this week either. They didn’t need him last week, anyone can run on the Colts, but the Dolphins had one of the best run defenses in the league last year. The Texans will need Foster back if they have any chance of running on Miami. Besides, if there’s two things the Texans haven’t done well in their franchise history it’s cover as road favorites (2-5 ATS), and cover after a win (16-29 ATS).

There are 3 reasons this isn’t a 5 unit selection. 1, Miami was 1-7 last year at home. That has to mean something right? 2, they’re coming off of 14 point loss on MNF. Teams coming off a 17+ point loss on MNF are 17-35 ATS the following week. 14 isn’t 17, but it’s close enough to be concerned. 3, Chad Henne is one of the most inconsistent players on the planet. He was good last week, so logic says he’ll struggle this week.

Dallas Cowboys 31 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against spread: Dallas -3 (-135) 2 units (+0)

Huh? The Cowboys are only 6 points better than the 49ers? That’s what this line says. I know the Cowboys lost last week and the 49ers won, but the Cowboys outplayed an above average team in the Jets in New York for 50 minutes before spontaneously combusting, while the 49ers led by a mere 2 points at home over quite possibly the worst team in the league in Seattle before Ted Ginn Jr. improbably scored twice on special teams in just over a minute.

So why am I not all over the Cowboys? Well, for one thing, I’m going to stay away from road favorites from now on, at least betting heavily on them. Also, this feels like a trap line. San Francisco is a good home team (at least in comparison to how they are on the road), while the Cowboys are coming off a crushing opening game loss and might not be trustworthy going forward after how they imploded. However, I’m certainly not going to bet on the 49ers to win and this line is small enough (3) that I have to at least think the 49ers have a good chance at winning to bet on them.

I’m taking Dallas. The only reason this isn’t a mere 1 unit bet is that the Cowboys are in their 2^nd straight road game, normally a fairly lucrative betting situation, especially coming off of a loss. Teams tend to be undervalued by Vegas in that situation and cover at a decent 60% clip since 1996, a fairly long time. The Cowboys won in this situation last season under Jason Garrett so that also helps me make this a 2 unit bet.

Cincinnati Bengals 20 Denver Broncos 13 Upset Pick (+185)

Pick against spread: Cincinnati +4.5 (-110) 3 units (+300)

As pathetic as the Raiders were week 1, with more penalty yards than passing yards, the Broncos were even more pathetic, mostly because they lost to the Raiders. They couldn’t stop the run (33 carries for 188 yards by Raider running backs), they couldn’t run (12 carries for 25 yards by Bronco running backs), they fumbled 4 times, losing 2 and committing 3 turnovers, along with 10 penalties of their own. Kyle Orton barely completed 50% of his passes (24 for 46) and the crowd predictably soured on him with chants of “TEBOW TEBOW.”

After all that, they’re favorites. Huh? The Bengals aren’t great, but they did win last week and they’re better than 1.5 points worse than Denver. The Broncos can’t run or stop the run. This is bad for this matchup. Andy Dalton isn’t a very good quarterback, but the Bengals won week 1 because Cedric Benson, freshly released from prison, ran for 121 yards and a score on 25 carries. That took the pressure off of Dalton. That should happen again this week. Meanwhile, Kyle Orton isn’t a very good quarterback either. If the Broncos can’t run, he doesn’t play well. The Broncos couldn’t run last week and I don’t see that being any different this week.

On top of that, two trends go in favor of Cincinnati big time. One, Denver is 2-14 ATS as favorites of 3.5+ since 2008. This is hilarious, but also pathetic. Two, Marvin Lewis is 9-4 ATS in the 2^nd of back to back road games. This spread might have been 6 points had Champ Bailey’s status not been in doubt for this game and I would have made this a 4 or 5 unit pick at least in that case because teams that finish with 6 wins or fewer are terrible as 6+ point favorites.

However, Bailey’s likely absence still definitely hurts the Broncos. He’s their only good defensive back. Without him, they can’t stop the run or the pass and as the great John Madden would say, if you can’t stop the run or the pass, you probably can’t stop the other team’s offense. I’m still taking Cincinnati for 3. The Broncos suck as 3.5+ point favorites, the Bengals are good in the 2^nd of two road games, the Broncos don’t match up well with the Bengals, the Broncos don’t deserve to be more than a field goal favorite over anyone right now, and the Broncos are coming off a deflating week 1 loss to an archrival.

The Broncos are at home in the 2^nd of two home games to start the season and a good home team, but I think Kyle Orton would probably rather be on the road than at home right now to be honest. No one’s chant his backup’s name on the road. I’m taking the Bengals for 3.

New England Patriots 31 San Diego Chargers 28

Pick against spread: San Diego +7 (-105) 1 unit (-105)

At first glance, San Diego looks like a smart pick here. Philip Rivers is 12-4 ATS as an underdog and the Patriots just gave up over 400 yards to Chad Henne. However, Philip Rivers is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS against Tom Brady including the playoffs in his career. That one ATS win by the way came as a 14 point underdog in the playoffs. I’m still going with Philip Rivers. 7 points is a lot and I’m not sold on New England’s defense this year, but I’m not making this a big play.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Philadelphia Eagles 26 Upset Pick (+135)

Pick against spread: Atlanta +3 (-125) 4 units

The Falcons lost last week, unfortunate for me since I picked them. However, that was kind of predictable. The Falcons struggle on the road, outside, against quality opponents. Two of their 3 losses in 2010 were outside in Pittsburgh and in Philadelphia. They also lost to New England in New England, the Giants in New York, and Carolina in Carolina in 2009, so this is nothing new. 5 of Matt Ryan’s last 8 regular season losses have been on the road outside and aside from Carolina, all of those have been quality opponents.

That was my mistake. I underestimated the Bears and didn’t think they were a quality opponent. I also made the mistake of betting on a road favorite, something I’m aware of this week. Oh well, live and learn. One positive did come from the Falcons loss to the Bears. Vegas is now really underrating them so much so that they’re home underdogs now. Matt Ryan has lost at home 3 times in 3 years, including the playoffs.

Remember when I said I’d stay away from road favorites? Well, the Eagles are road favorites and not just road favorites, but road favorites in a tough place to play. Besides, I’m not so sure the Dream Team should be sitting pretty right now. They struggled in the preseason. Jeremy Maclin is still not 100%. Their offensive line is terrible once again and teams seem to have figured out Michael Vick. Vick was 14 of 32 against St. Louis’ banged up secondary last week. The only reason they won was because St. Louis suffered a ton of injuries and shot themselves in the foot countless times. I don’t believe in this team’s ability to win in Atlanta as favorites. I say both of these teams will be 1-1 at the end of this.

St. Louis Rams 24 New York Giants 21 Upset Pick (+180)

Pick against spread: St. Louis +4.5 (-110) 2 units

Rams. Giants. The injury bowl on Monday Night Football. Let’s look at the injury reports. Osi Umenyiora for the Giants, out. Prince Amukamara for the Giants, out. Terrell Thomas for the Giants, out for the season. Jonathan Goff for the Giants, out for the season. Marvin Austin for the Giants, out for the season. Hakeem Nicks for the Giants, probably out. Steven Jackson for the Rams, out. Danny Amendola for the Rams, out. Bradley Fletcher for the Rams, probably out. Ron Bartell for the Rams, out for the season. Jason Smith for the Rams, possibly out. Sam Bradford for the Rams…he’ll play, so it could be worse, but not much.

I was hoping this line would be somewhere over 6. I think the Giants have a really good chance to finish 6-10 with early injuries and a brutal 2^nd half schedule and teams that finish 6-10 are terrible at covering as 6+ point favorites. Unfortunately, this line is 4.5 so it’s not close enough for me to use that.

However, I still feel like this line is too high. The Rams were one of the best ATS teams last year and I think they’re still being underrated this season. Meanwhile, Vegas doesn’t seem to realize how badly the Giants are hurting. They aren’t just missing those guys with injuries, they lost 2 starting offensive lineman, their starting tight end, their slot receiver, and a starting defensive tackle in the offseason. They looked horrible last week.

Also, don’t discount Steve Spagnuolo’s impact as St. Louis’ head coach. He used to be a New York coordinator so that gives them an advantage. Teams employing a former assistant of their opponent (provided the opponent has not since changed regimes), were 7-3 ATS last season.

LV Hilton Super Contest Picks (for anyone playing: Tampa Bay +3, Buffalo -3, Chicago +6.5, Atlanta +2.5, St. Louis +5.5 (2-3 on the season) 

 

 

New England Patriots 34 Baltimore Ravens 20 Lock Pick/Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: New England -7.5 (-110) 1 unit

Tom Brady is angry. That should be all you need to know here. As soon as I read this article, I knew my Broncos +13.5 bet was in trouble last week and sure enough, Brady came out and had not only his best career playoff game, but arguably the best playoff game ever, throwing for a playoff record 6 touchdowns, including a playoff record 5 in the first half, completing 26 of 34 for 364 yards, those 6 scores, and one early pick. After he threw the pick, he was visibly enraged even though the Patriots already had a 14-0 lead. The Broncos scored on the next position and Brady was almost perfect from that point on, leading the Patriots to a 45-10 win over the Broncos.

Brady rage had very little if anything to do with Tim Tebow hogging the spotlight than it had to do with the fact that he’s 34, hasn’t won a ring in almost 8 years, has lost 3 straight playoff games, and has an unreliable at best defense supporting him. That’s immense pressure and anyone who has watched Brady in his career knows he thrives under immense pressure because of his amazing competitiveness. The article above says it all, Brady’s intensity goes up a level from high to super high in the playoffs and with the special situations surrounding this season and what a 4^th ring would mean to his legacy (he’d go from one of the best, to THE best of all-time), I think Brady’s intensity could be at an all-time high. It’s gone from super high to off the charts. That’s just how Brady is. Good thing football exists or he might be classified as psychotic.

The Ravens have a good defense, but the Patriots are scoring 30+ in this one. No team is going to stop them from doing that. People like to cite Baltimore’s win over the Patriots in the playoffs a couple years as a reason why the Ravens can pull the upset here again, but there are some key differences between this game and that one. For one, Brady was not quite this intense and motivated. That’s a key. He’s in full on eff you mode.

Two, Brady didn’t have Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Rob Gronkowski, or Aaron Hernandez in that one. In 2009, if you take out Welker, who got hurt, Brady’s top 5 leading receivers that year were a secretly washed up Randy Moss, Ben Watson, Julian Edelman, Sam Aiken, and Kevin Faulk. Of those 5, only Edelman and Faulk are still on the roster. Edelmen is a special teamer and defensive back. Faulk is a running back. He’s got much better receivers this time around.

Thirdly, Joe Flacco has regressed since then. He’s had his moments this year, but overall this has been his worst season as a pro and he’s had some downright dreadful games. The Ravens have been so inconsistent this season for that reason, I don’t know how anyone can trust them. There’s also no guarantee that Cam Cameron will remember to use Ray Rice in this one. Rice destroyed the Patriots in 2009, but Cam Cameron is a moron. Rice has received 13 or fewer carries 5 times this season (1-4 SU).  Besides, the Patriots run defense is a little better this season.

Fourthly, in the end, I’m calling the Patriots loss in 2009 to the Ravens a fluke anyway. If the Ravens rush for 200+ yards again and Brady commits 4 turnovers in his own territory again, yeah, the Ravens will win, but I just don’t see that happening. The Patriots will be way more prepared for the Ravens this time around, not to mention more talented, and Brady is definitely using that loss a few years ago as motivation (as if he needed anymore).

So yeah, the Patriots are going to score 30+ especially since Baltimore couldn’t even get a single sack against TJ Yates last week. That means the Ravens need at least 24+ to cover. While I don’t think the Ravens can win this game because I don’t trust Flacco in a shootout, if Flacco has a solid game (which he’s capable of) and if Ray Rice has a good game and Cam Cameron remembers to use him (also possible), the Ravens can definitely score in the mid to high 20s against a Patriots defense that has, overall, not been so great this season. There are also two trends that work against New England, First, Baltimore is 8-3 ATS as a dog or favorite of less than 7 this year, 6-1 ATS as a dog or a favorite of less than 5.5 this year. Second, teams are 2-10 ATS since 2002 after scoring 40+ points in the playoffs.

For those reasons, I’m only putting 1 unit on the Patriots. However, I love getting the Patriots -1.5 in a teaser because I think they’re almost a lock to win here. I mean the Ravens could have lost to Houston if Houston didn’t turn the ball over 4 times last week. Brady won’t do that. Yates was able to move the ball some last week and if the Ravens can’t get to Brady this week, and even if they can a little, Brady should still carve them up. I’ll have more on that teaser later.

 

New York Giants 24 San Francisco 49ers 17 Upset Pick (+120)

Pick against spread: NY Giants +2.5 (-110) 3 units

The Giants and 49ers met in the regular season and the 49ers won that game 27-20 at home, where this game will be played. However, there are several reasons why I do not feel that will be the case this time. For one, the Giants didn’t necessarily get outplayed by the 49ers last time. It was a 7 point game, but it was 3-3, 9-6, and 13-12 after each of the first 3 quarters with the 49ers pulling away late and halting an Eli Manning game tying drive late. The Giants also won the time of possession battle by 9 minutes and the total yardage battle by 90 yards.

Secondly, the Giants are playing much better now than they were back then. This is the best the Giants have played all season and probably since their Super Bowl run in 2007. Their pass rush is healthy and their defense has been much better of late. They can get to the quarterback with 4 pass rushers and drop 7 into coverage on every play, especially on 3^rd down and obvious passing downs where the Giants get after the quarterback with 4 defensive ends. They couldn’t quite do that last time.

Defensively, they’ve allowed an average of 12.5 points per game in their last 4, all wins, even though they’ve played a generally good group of quarterbacks, Mark Sanchez, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, and, of course, Aaron Rodgers. In that span, they have 17 sacks and countless pressures. The 49ers offensive line is their biggest weakness. Alex Smith really struggled when the Saints blitzed last week. He did have those 2 great late drives, but other than that, the 49ers might not have had more than 3-7 points if not for 5 Saints turnovers, 2 on special teams, the flukiest kind of turnovers there are. As bad as Smith was against the blitz last week, imagine how it can be when the Giants can get the same kind of pressure WITHOUT blitzing.

Thirdly, the 49ers are coming off an emotional win as a young team. The Broncos were in this same situation last week after beating the Steelers. We all saw what happened to them the next week. There’s a reason why young, inexperienced teams, specifically inexperienced quarterbacks, never advance far into the playoffs. If they manage to win one game, the celebration is almost always too much for them to overcome the next week. The Giants are coming off an emotional win as huge underdogs, BUT they’re a veteran team who knows how to handle this. They had 4 straight emotional wins as underdogs in 2007 and still won the Super Bowl. I trust them in this situation more than I do the 49ers.

The Giants are playing their best football right now. Their defense is playing amazing, Eli Manning is still playing at an elite level, throwing to 4 different receivers (Nicks, Cruz, Manningham, Ballard) who are all healthy. Their running game and offensive line have even come together. Their back 7 is still their Achilles heel, but their front 4 is so good, especially on passing downs, that I don’t expect Smith to be able to take advantage of their less than great back 7.

Even so, this could be a close game. The 49ers have lost by more than 3 points just once this season. They know how to play it close. However, even though what Smith did last week was amazing, leading the team essentially to 2 straight game winning drives, I still like Eli in the clutch more. He’s more experienced and he’s led his team on more game winning drives than anyone else in the league this year. In what could be a close game, I like getting points with the more clutch of the two quarterbacks. For that and other reasons, I really like the Giants this week. This would be a 5 unit bet, but the following teaser made a lot more sense to me. Here we go.

Teaser: New England -1.5, NY Giants +8.5 5 units 550 to win 500

Basically, these are this week’s scenarios (FootballFanSpot.com is not responsible for any brain related injuries associated with trying to understand the following).

(4 numbers: did teaser hit, did Giants cover, did Giants win, did Patriots cover)

New England loses or wins by 1 and San Francisco wins by 3+ -550 -330 -100 -110 (-1090)

New England loses or wins by 1 and Giants lose by 2 or less -550 +300 -100 -110 (-460)

New England loses or wins by 1 and Giants win -550 +300 +120 -110 (-240)

New England wins by 2-7 and San Francisco wins by 9+ -550 -330 -100 -110 (-1090)

New England wins by 2-7 and San Francisco wins by 3-8 +500 -330 -100 -110 (-40)

New England wins by 2-7 and San Francisco wins by 1-2 +500 +300 -100 -110 (+590)

New England wins by 2-7 and NY Giants win +500 +300 +120 -110 (+810)

New England wins by 8+ and San Francisco wins by 9+ -550 -330 -100 +100 (-880)

New England wins by 8+ and San Francisco wins by 3-8 +500 -330 -100 +100 (+170)

New England wins by 8+ and San Francisco wins by 1-2 +500 +300 -100 +100 (+800)

New England wins by 8+ and NY Giants win +500 +300 +120 +100 (+1020)

Basically, if the Patriots cover and the Giants win, I get a lot of money. If the Patriots don’t win or the 49ers win big, I lose a lot of money, with certain scenarios in between. This just made more sense to me given that I’m significantly more sure the Patriots win than cover and I highly doubt San Francisco wins by more than 8 points.

 

 

()=Previous ranking (preseason) 

32(23). Jacksonville Jaguars

All the Jaguars had to do was beat the Colts week 15 and they had the division and the playoffs wrapped up with 2 weeks to spare. However, they didn’t beat the Colts week 15. Then they lost week 16. Then they lost week 17. They ended up missing the postseason entirely, finishing 8-8 as the Colts once again… (read more)

31(28). San Francisco 49ers

In the prime of the Mike Singletary era (by prime, I mean when people actually thought this team had a shot at making the playoffs), this team was known for its defense. However, the offense has somehow become the team’s best unit and no, it’s not because the offense got that much better. Alex Smith is still their… (read more)

30(32). Cincinnati Bengals

After winning the division in 2009, hopes were high in Cincinnati, especially with Terrell Owens coming in during the offseason. Unfortunately, Carson Palmer’s struggles, the ego of the T-Ocho show (it’s no coincidence Palmer had his best games when both were hurt), and injuries on defense left them at 4-12… (read more)

29(29). Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks went into week 17 in an interesting situation last year. They were 6-9 and missing their starting quarterback. If they lost by 15+, they’d set a record for most losses in a single season by 15+ with 10. For those of you who can’t do math, that would have meant that they lost all 10 of their games by 15+. However… (read more)

28(30). Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers had the worst record in the league last year and they were rewarded with the league’s toughest schedule. That’s what you get for being in the same division as Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and New Orleans. They play 6 games against those 3 teams and could easily lose all 6. They also play Green… (read more)

27(27). Oakland Raiders

After losing the Super Bowl in 2003, the Raider endured 7 straight seasons of 11 losses or more. Last year, they rose to 8-8. This year, I’m projecting a regression for several reasons. First, they lost a significant part of their team in free agency. Nnamdi Asomugha was their best player, hands down. He’s gone. Zach… (read more)

26(25). Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins had an opportunity to contend for a playoff spot. All they had to do was send a 3rdrounder to Denver for Kyle Orton. Orton isn’t a great quarterback or anything, but this team has a good defense and they fixed the running game and offensive line in the offseason so all he’d have to do is not turn the ball over… (read more)

25(26). Denver Broncos

The fans want Tim Tebow. Tim Tebow might not be the best quarterback on their roster. He might be, but he might not be. However, we know what Kyle Orton is. Kyle Orton is boring. Kyle Orton can get you to the playoffs if you have a good supporting cast, but he won’t win any games and if he doesn’t have a good… (read more)

24(22). Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs improved from 4-12 in 2009 to 10-6 in 2010. But did they actually get any better? That can be tough to tell because of how easy Kansas City’s schedule was last season. In 2010, Kansas City played 4 games against teams with better than a .500 record (including playoffs). They went 1-3 in those games… (read more)

23(31). Washington Redskins

Rex Grossman predicts the Redskins will win the NFC East. Rex Grossman is wrong. Don’t get me wrong, I love that he made that prediction. I love unfounded confidence in sports. I love when a team down 3-0 in a series predicts a series win. I love when a team currently out of the playoff race predicts they will win… (read more)

22(8). Indianapolis Colts

Peyton Manning had a down season by his standards. He posted his lowest quarterback rating since 2002 (91.9), had his lowest YPA since his rookie season and threw more picks than any season since 2002. However, that doesn’t mean that at age 35, Peyton Manning is a declining player. A lot of his… (read more)

21(20). Minnesota Vikings

Brett Favre was amazing in 2009 and this team almost went to the Super Bowl. Brett Favre was terrible in 2010, getting benched for Joe Webb, who also sucked. Now, former Eagles’ and Redskins’ quarterback Donovan McNabb is the starting quarterback and many Vikings fans feel he can get them back into the… (read more)

20(24). Tennessee Titans

The Titans are cleaning house. Former Head Coach Jeff Fisher is gone after 17 seasons, replaced with Mike Munchak. Vince Young is gone, as is Kerry Collins, who retired. They drafted Jake Locker with the 8th overall pick and signed Matt Hasselbeck to be a stopgap for them until Locker is ready to… (read more)

19(21). Buffalo Bills

The last time the Buffalo Bills made the playoffs, Bill Clinton was still president (1999). The main reason for that is inconsistent (or consistently bad) quarterback play. Is Ryan Fitzpatrick that quarterback to get them back to the playoffs? I doubt it. Chan Gailey’s offense has always inflated quarterbacks’ stats… (read more)

18(19). Chicago Bears

The Bears went 11-5 and made the NFC Championship game last year, but I never bet big money on them to win ever. I didn’t trust them. Jay Cutler is an interception prone quarterback and offensive coordinator Mike Martz is a coordinator whose system leads to a lot of turnovers (a lot of yards and touchdowns too… (read more)

17(16). New York Giants

In 2004, the Giants started 4-1 before finishing 6-10. In 2006, they started 6-2 before finishing 8-8. They still made the playoffs and lost to the Eagles in the first. In 2007, they started 6-2 before finishing 10-6. They eventually got their act together and won the Super Bowl, but their 2nd half struggles were still… (read more)

16(12). Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals obviously felt they were a quarterback away from being a legitimate Super Bowl contender because they spent a 2nd round pick and a starting cornerback to get Kevin Kolb. However, Kevin Kolb is not Kurt Warner and their supporting cast is not the supporting cast it was in 2009 when they won… (read more)

15(13). Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers went 10-6 in 2010 and almost made the playoffs. However, after LeGarrette Blount took over as the starting running back week 7, and added a new dimension to their offense, rushing for 5 yards per carry out of the backfield, they didn’t lose by more than a touchdown for the rest of the season, hanging… (read more)

14(14). Pittsburgh Steelers

Of the last 10 Super Bowl runner ups, only 3 have made the playoffs the next season, combining to win 1 playoff game. The last time a team won the Super Bowl after losing it the year before was the early 70s. The Steelers have made the Super Bowl three times in the Big Ben era. The last two times they made the Super Bowl… (read more)

13(11). Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys bottomed out last season. Once a popular pick to become the first team to play in a Super Bowl the same season that they hosted the Super Bowl, the Cowboys started the season 1-7 and finished 6-10. However, it wasn’t all bad. Wade Phillips is finally gone. The Cowboys were never going to win a… (read more)

12(15). St. Louis Rams

In 2009, the Rams won 1 game. Rookie quarterback Sam Bradford instantly made this a better team as the Rams won 7 games and almost made the playoffs. Bradford was 354 for 590 (60.0%) for 3512 yards (6.0 YPA), 18 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. That might not sound great, but consider that he lost Mark… (read more)

11(17). Detroit Lions

In 2008, the Lions won no games. If they had forfeited every game, their record would have been the same. However, that seems like a long way away now. Bottoming out was what this team needed after a long stretch of terrible play. Bottoming out allowed them to start fresh with new personnel in the front office… (read more)

10(18). Cleveland Browns

3rd round pick Colt McCoy took over week 6 as the starter, as a rookie, after 5 weeks of Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace. He lost by a lot in his debut against the Steelers, but after that, he had 4 straight strong performances. The Browns beat the Saints and the Patriots in consecutive games, and then came… (read more)

9(7). San Diego Chargers

The Chargers struggled in the start of the 2010 season, nothing new to them. They started 2-5, but like they had in recent years, everyone expected them to be able to bounce back. They looked well on their way, winning 4 in a row, before losing to the Raiders and falling to 6-6. They won their next two games, but a loss to the… (read more)

 8(9). New York Jets

This offseason could have gone in two completely different directions for the Jets. It could have gone very badly. David Harris, Shaun Ellis, Brodney Pool, Antonio Cromartie, Braylon Edwards, Brad Smith, and Santonio Holmes were all free agents heading into this offseason. That’s 4 defensive starters and their… (read more)

7(6). Houston Texans

The Houston Texans have never made the playoffs. They have been trendy sleeper picks for the past few years and have never come through. Some people have sworn off of making them sleepers. I am not one of those people. In fact, this is the first year I can really call Houston one of my sleepers. Peyton Manning… (read more)

6(4). New Orleans Saints

In February of 2010, the Saints were on top of the world as Super Bowl Champions. However, like every reigning Super Bowl Champion before them since the 2003 New England Patriots, the Saints failed to win a playoff game, losing in embarrassing fashion to the Seattle Seahawks, a team that somehow qualified… (read more)

5(3). Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers won the Super Bowl, as I predicted last August (just saying), last year despite having many players on IR, including several key players. Among those were Ryan Grant, their lead back, Jermichael Finley, their stud tight end, Morgan Burnett, a talented rookie starter at strong safety, Nick Barnett, a… (read more)

 

4(10). Baltimore Ravens

Joe Flacco has more wins in his first 3 seasons than any quarterback not named Dan Marino, but there is one thing he’s yet to do and that’s beat Ben Roethlisberger. Flacco has beaten the Steelers twice in those 3 years, but that was when Ben was out of the lineup. Roethlisberger has gotten the best of Flacco… (read more)

 

3(5). Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles stole the offseason. They might not be the best team (though they might be), but there’s no question this is the most hyped team. The added a key addition at almost every position, Dominique Rodgers Cromartie and Nnamdi Asomugha at cornerback, Jason Babin at defensive end, Cullen Jenkins at… (read more)

 2(2). Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons finished 13-3 last season and got the NFC #1 seed, but they were exposed late. New Orleans came into town week 16 and won and all of a sudden the mystique behind the Georgia Dome, where Matt Ryan had only lost once in his 3 year career, was gone. 3 weeks later, the Packers came in and… (read more)

1(1). New England Patriots

At this time last year, some were talking about the Patriots as a potential 9-7 or 8-8 team that would miss the playoffs. The Jets were the talk of the division and some were even speculating the Dolphins were better than the Patriots. Their defense was inexperienced and their key offensive players were… (read more)

 

Last season: 

Overall picks: 175-92 (.654)

ATS Picks: 142-118-7 (+$4970)

Lock picks: 12-5

Upset picks: 35-36 (+1668)

Total money: +6638 

 

Green Bay Packers 23 New Orleans Saints 20

Spread: Green Bay -4

Pick against spread: Green Bay 2 units (-220)

Green Bay. New Orleans. What a way to start the season as the previous 2 Super Bowl champs square off against each other in a game that could very well be a preview of this year’s NFC Championship. As has been custom over the past few years, the defending Super Bowl champs, the Packers, will open up the season at home on a Thursday night. Defending champs are 8-0 straight up in this spot since the NFL made this tradition in 2003, but it’s worth noting that the road team has covered the spread in each of the last two years.

The Saints, in this spot last year, scored a mere 14 points. Pittsburgh in 2009 scored 13. The Giants in 2008, 16. The early season jitters have been there in recent years. The Packers haven’t been in this spot before, while the Saints have played in an opening night game 3 times in the Drew Brees/Sean Peyton era. They’ve scored a combined 24 points in their first two games (1-1), but maybe the third time will be the charm for this offense. They’re certainly better prepared for this game than the Packers given that experience.

Speaking of better prepared, the Saints were the team that spent the offseason practicing together, while the Packers were one of the few who didn’t. They also did all the traditional Super Bowl things, reveling in their glory, as they deserve to. However, there’s a reason why no defending champ has won a playoff game since 2004. You just don’t want it as much in your repeat year. Just ask the Saints, who lost in the first round last year.

The Saints, meanwhile, now have the chip on their shoulder. Everyone is talking about the Packers and the Eagles in the NFC and Atlanta and Tampa Bay are getting a lot of buzz out of their own division. The Saints have quietly had a nice offseason, beefing up their running game with Mark Ingram, their offensive line with Olin Kreutz, and their defensive line with Aubrayo Franklin and Cameron Jordan.

Drew Brees is healthy now after a knee injury caused him to throw a career high in interceptions and the Saints worked out harder than anyone this offseason. Drew Brees funded the workouts out of his own pocket. That desire to win has to rub off on the rest of this team. As the quarterback goes, so does the team.

I do think the Packers continue that winning streak of opening night home teams. However, this isn’t an even spread. The Saints are underdogs by over a field goal, 4 points. Drew Brees is 30-19 against the spread as an underdog in his career and the spread is large enough where I feel comfortable picking the Saints to win against the spread, but not straight up. I think this will be a game decided by a field goal, probably a lower scoring game than is expected as well because opening night games tend to be.

Baltimore Ravens 13 Pittsburgh Steelers 10

Spread: Baltimore -1

Pick against spread: Baltimore 3 units (+300)

Pittsburgh is coming off of losing the Super Bowl. There’s something known as the Super Bowl loser curse. 3 of the last 10 Super Bowl runner ups have missed the playoffs and even the Colts weren’t immune to this so called curse. They didn’t miss the playoffs or anything, but they finished a mere 10-6, their first season of less than 12 wins since 2002. They also started 6-6 and lost their opener to division rival Houston, a team they had beaten 14 of their last 16 meetings.

This situation looks earlier similar. The Steelers are coming off a Super Bowl loss. Super Bowl runner ups are 3-14 against the spread week 1 in the last 17 instances, but Joe Flacco has never beaten Ben Roethlisberger in his career, a stretch spanning 6 instances. Like last year with the Colts/Texans, I expect the former to prevail in this battle of trends and the Steelers to lose, especially since the Steelers have been especially bad after making the Super Bowl in the Ben Roethlisberger era, missing the playoffs after both instances.

Besides, let’s look at those 6 Flacco/Roethlisberger matchups. 23-20 (OT), 13-9, 23-14, 23-20, 13-10, 31-24. It’s not like Roethlisberger has been blowing out Flacco or anything. It’s always just been one thing that goes wrong for Flacco. With some better luck, Flacco could have easily won 1 or 2 of those games. In fact, just last postseason Flacco was leading for a while before everything started going wrong. I’m not completely confident the Ravens win here against an even spread, but I’m picking them here for 3 units.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 Detroit Lions 23

Spread: Tampa Bay -1

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay 1 unit (-110)

The Buccaneers were the break out team of last season going from 4 wins in 2009 to 10 wins last season, almost making the playoffs and knocking off division rival New Orleans week 17. Everyone is expecting Detroit to be this year’s Tampa Bay. However, that’s the problem. Everyone is expecting it. No one was expecting Tampa Bay to do what they did last year. Detroit sent a message to the league week 3 of the preseason. They’re going to be prepared for like a playoff team this season, by every team, and that includes Tampa Bay.

Speaking of not sneaking up on anyone, Tampa Bay won’t have that advantage this season either. Everyone will be prepared for them like a playoff team as well and, with a tougher schedule, that should predict a down season for them. However, the key word there is should. Tampa Bay got better as the season went on last year.

After LeGarrette Blount took over as the starting running back week 6, they lost 4 games the rest of the way, going 7-4 and not losing by more than a touchdown, hanging within a touchdown of Atlanta twice, Baltimore, and these Lions when they were in the middle of their late season 4 game winning streak. They also added three front 7 starters through the draft in Adrian Clayborn, DaQuan Bowers, and Mason Foster. Gerald McCoy, Cody Grimm, and Aqib Talib are back from the injuries they dealt with late last season, as is Brian Price, but he’s still out of shape and won’t be a big impact for a while.

I don’t really know what to do with this game. Detroit won last year in Tampa Bay, but it was close. It’s in Tampa Bay and these teams are about even talent wise. I have Detroit going 10-6 and Tampa Bay going 9-7, but with a tougher schedule. This line should be -3, to account simply for Tampa Bay’s home field advantage, but it’s -1, an even line. I’m going with Tampa Bay for a small play on that basis and because I had them winning this game in my season preview.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Chicago Bears 13

Spread: Atlanta -2.5

Pick against spread: Atlanta 2 units (-220)

I have a rule of thumb of not over thinking things. If I think a team is better than the other one, with home field advantage factored in, I don’t pay any attention to the line if it’s 2.5 or less. 1 point and 2 point games do happen in this league, but they’re very rare. I think Atlanta is the better team here, hell, I have them going to the Super Bowl. I think they’re so improved from last season and fixed all the flaws that were exposed late last season as they went from 12-2 to losing in their first playoff game.

They fixed their pass rush by signing a legitimate 2^nd pass rusher in Ray Edwards. Edwards, John Abraham, and Jonathan Babineaux form a very formidable pass rush and if 2009 1^st round pick Peria Jerry is finally over his injuries, with former starter Corey Peters in the mix, they could have one of the best pass rushes in the league. They added more big plays guys on offense with Julio Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers. Jones is a rookie receiver, but he was well coached in a Pro Style offense at Alabama and he looked good in the preseason so he won’t be hurt by the lockout all that much. They also were able to return most of their starting offensive line.

Buffalo Bills 23 Kansas City Chiefs 17 (+195)

Spread: Kansas City -5.5

Pick against spread: Buffalo 5 units (+500)

This one needs to be locked in ASAP. Matt Cassel is 50/50 to miss week 1 with a cracked rib and Tyler Palko would start in his absence. I like the Bills to beat the Chiefs straight up even if Cassel plays. The Chiefs are incredibly overrated and looked awful in the preseason and to end last season, while the Bills are one of the few teams returning all of their coordinators, their head coach, and their starting quarterback, an advantage coming out of the lockout. However, this line has yet to shift much despite Cassel’s injury. It was 6.5 and now it’s 5.5. Tyler Palko -5.5 over anyone is an easy bet and if Cassel does play, I still like this bet.

 

Houston Texans 28 Indianapolis Colts 21

Spread: Houston -9

Pick against spread: Indianapolis 4 units (-440)

Well it looks like Peyton Manning is going to miss week 1. This line jumped from -5.5 to -9 Sunday with news that a Colts source said Manning could miss up to 4-5 weeks. I’ve had the Texans winning this the whole time, but all of a sudden, the Colts look like a pretty lucrative bet. The Colts fit the bill of a playoff caliber team starting a backup quarterback.

In the first game with a backup quarterback, this is a pretty lucrative betting spot. The logic is the opponent will take a sigh of relief that the starter isn’t playing and expect to coast to victory, ignoring that the playoff caliber team does have other talent. Meanwhile, the team missing its starter will have a chip on their shoulder and something to prove. Remember the Steelers without Big Ben last year. Similar situation. I especially like betting against Houston in this situation because they aren’t well coached.

Besides, this is a divisional game and betting a divisional underdog of 7+ is normally a smart idea because divisional games tend to be close. These teams know each other inside and out. This is especially true week 1. Divisional dogs of 3.5+ are 20-9 week 1 since 2000.

St. Louis Rams 30 Philadelphia Eagles 27 (-100)

Spread: Philadelphia -4.5

Pick against spread: St. Louis 4 units (-440)

Ah the dream team. The dream team that can’t protect its quarterback’s blindside, a very bad thing when the quarterback can’t read blitzes. Jeremy Maclin is also expected to be sluggish for this game after dealing with major illness in the offseason and not working out or practicing with the team. Vick can’t read blitzes. His line can’t protect. And the Rams can get to the quarterback as good as anyone in the league and frequently dial up the blitz.

Meanwhile, the Rams are a much improved team this offseason, yet the Eagles might see them as just another 2011 non-playoff team as they look forward to New York, a divisional rival, and the Falcons, a very talented team, in the next 2 weeks. It’s the perfect example of a trap game and I especially love that it’s the Eagles, who frequently fall into trap games. On top of all this, Andy Reid tends to struggle in season opener while the Rams had a very good home record last season and Sam Bradford for his career is 7-4 as an underdog.

Cleveland Browns 21 Cincinnati Bengals 10

Spread: Cleveland -6.5

Pick against spread: Cleveland 1 unit (-110)

This was a game I wasn’t too sure about. I have Cleveland winning 9 games because I think Colt McCoy will develop into a top 15 quarterback, but what if he doesn’t? This team still has a ton of holes and could easily go 6-10 and the Browns would fit the mold of a 6 win or less team favored by 6+, a situation teams are 22-61 against the spread in. Also, Cincinnati is a big underdog in a divisional game week 1, a situation teams are 20-9 against in the spread in since 2000.

However, I say screw all that. Sometimes you have to look past the trends to see that Cincinnati does not deserve to have any money bet on them right now. Their receiver corps consists of a rookie wide out coming out of a lockout, a receiver who had most of his career stats in the last 3 weeks of last season, a 2^nd year in slot receiver, a 2^nd year tight end, and career backup depth receiver.

They have a rookie quarterback, coming out of a lockout, and not just any rookie quarterback, but a 2^nd round rookie. 2^nd/3^rd round rookie quarterbacks never do well in their first season in the league. They never do well in general in fact. Only three of the starting quarterbacks in the league right now (other than Dalton of course) were 2^nd/3^rd rounders, Brees, Schaub, and Kolb and all 3 sat early in their career.

They also have a new offensive coordinator coming out of a lockout and their starting running back averaged 3.5 yards per carry last season and was recently released from prison. Defensively, things aren’t much better. They don’t have a 2^nd pass rusher after Carlos Dunlap, who is known for only producing when no one believes in him, and they’ll miss Johnathan Joseph, who left as a free agent to Houston. If not for San Francisco, this would be the worst team in the league. Unless they’re facing a team that I project go 6-10 or worse favored by 6+, I don’t think I’ll be betting on Cincinnati for a while.

Tennessee Titans 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 16 (-100)

Spread: Jacksonville -3

Pick against spread: Tennessee 2 units (+200)

Jacksonville is a home favorite of less than 3 in a divisional game. In the opening week, when a line is 3 or less, the favorite has a big advantage, 15-5 ATS in that situation since 2000, when it’s a divisional game. When the line is 3.5 or more, the underdog is 20-9 ATS. However, Jacksonville is not very good as a home favorite. Since 2008, they are 4-11 as home favorites. Basically, when they’re supposed to win, they don’t. That’s how this team works. Plus, I feel Tennessee is the better team anyway.

New York Giants 28 Washington Redskins 13

Spread: NY Giants -3

Pick against spread: NY Giants 3 units (-330)

A lot of people seem to think the Giants will struggle this season. I agree with them. They seem to lose someone to injury every 5 minutes and Dallas and Philadelphia are both improved. However, I think they’ll be good to start the season again. They always are. In the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era, they are 41-15 in the first half of the season and 24-32 in the 2^nd half. That’s a difference of 17 games. That’s no fluke.

The book on the Giants since Coughlin took over has always been they’ve had talented teams, but they always collapse in the 2^nd half and they always commit a ton of turnovers. They were top 10 in passing offense and defense and run offense and defense, yet they missed the playoffs because they led the league in turnovers and collapsed late after a 6-2 start (DeSean Jackson says hello).

The Giants have a little bit less talent this season than last, but they’re still a talented bunch. Eli Manning is one of the top 10 or 12 quarterbacks in the league. They run the ball well and Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham on the outside at receiver are very underrated. They also get after the quarterback as well as anyone in the league, even with Osi Umenyiora out with an injury. I like them to continue their early season dominance with a win here against a mediocre to decent Washington team.

Arizona Cardinals 20 Carolina Panthers 14

Spread: Arizona -7

Pick against spread: Carolina 1 unit (+0)

Cam Newton makes his season debut here and has to travel 3 time zones to play the Cardinals in Arizona. An east coast team playing on the west coast is not at as much of a disadvantage as a west coast team on the east coast, especially at a 1 AM ET start, but they’ll still be at a disadvantage.

However, we’re not just picking winners here, we’re picking against the spread. I don’t think Arizona deserves to be favored just yet. They have the most talented of the new starting quarterbacks in the NFL this year, but Kevin Kolb is still a new starting quarterback coming out of a lockout. He’ll have great chemistry with Larry Fitzgerald since they worked out together this offseason and they’re basically best friends and that’s half the battle, but what about the other half? They could struggle early in the season.

On top of that, they can’t get to the quarterback or protect their own quarterback, a bad combination. I don’t know why so many people have been quick to anoint them as a legitimate playoff team this year. I have them making the playoffs, but only because their schedule is full of easy games like this one against Carolina. I’m taking the rookie and the points in the opener here.

San Francisco 49ers 13 Seattle Seahawks 10

Spread: San Francisco -5.5

Pick against spread: Seattle 3 units (-330)

The 49ers suck. The Seahawks suck too, but the 49ers are favored by 5.5 points. Bad teams getting favored by 6+ is a lucrative betting situation. Simply put, terrible teams have no business being big favorites. Teams that finish 6-10 or worse are 22-61 against the spread when favored as 6+ points. This line is only 5.5, so I’m not putting 4 or 5 on this game, but I have a hard time seeing San Francisco winning this game by more than 3 or 4, even at home.

On top of all this, both offenses suck, which means this should be an ugly low scoring game and low scoring games typically have small margin of victories. It’s also a divisional game and divisional games tend to be close. Divisional underdogs of 3.5+ are 20-9 on opening weekend since 2000. Besides, Frank Gore had 38 yards rushing in a game against the Seahawks last year. If he does that again, simply put, the 49ers are screwed. They might not cross midfield all night and still win 7-3 on a Tarvaris Jackson pick six. I still have the 49ers winning at home with the better quarterback, somehow, and I just can’t see Seattle winning anywhere on the road this season, but I’m going with the underdog against the spread.

San Diego Chargers 27 Minnesota Vikings 20

Spread: San Diego -9

Pick against spread: Minnesota 1 unit (+100)

In my season predictions, I predicted San Diego wouldn’t struggle to start this season like they had early in previous seasons. My reasoning behind that was that they always had made the playoffs after struggling early, but last year they didn’t. Contrary to popular belief, this is a competitive team. Philip Rivers is an extreme competitor and the rest of the team follows, but their head coach is a complete dunce. You know they had to hate sitting home watching the playoffs instead of losing in round 1 on a missed Nate Kaeding field goal.

Because of this, I expect them to give extra effort early this season to make sure they start out strong. I still won’t predict them to go very far in the playoffs, but I think they start this season strong. Still, something about picking San Diego favored by 7+ week 1 just doesn’t sit well with me, even though they are at home. At the same time, when San Diego is right, they blow people out with ease and Minnesota doesn’t have a very good team this season, so I don’t feel too comfortable betting them either. This is going to be 1 unit on the points.

Dallas Cowboys 31 New York Jets 27 (+180)

Spread: Dallas -4.5

Pick against spread: Dallas 3 units (+300)

Ryan. Ryan. This is a battle of Rex Ryan and his twin brother Rob, who has been in the spotlight a lot this offseason for trash talking (what else?) the Eagles after coming over as a coordinator from Cleveland. Both offenses will be very familiar with each other’s schemes. There are no secrets in this game and besides, both teams’ offenses practice against the type of defensive scheme they’ll be faced with in this game. That should make for a very well coached, high scoring game.

That style of play favors the Cowboys. Tony Romo is the better quarterback and he’ll work with Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten, whereas Mark Sanchez will be throwing to Santonio Holmes, a washed up Plaxico Burress, and Dustin Keller. I also like Felix Jones, the running back, more than Shonn Greene. I also don’t understand why this line is 4.5. These teams are evenly matched so the line should be 3 to adjust for New York’s home field. Even if the Jets win, I can’t see them doing so by much more than 3. They play a lot of close games, 9 of their 13 wins from last year, including playoffs, were by single digits.

New England Patriots 38 Miami Dolphins 17 Lock Pick

Spread: New England -7

Pick against spread: New England 1 unit (+100)

This is another game where I’m going against the trends. Miami is a big underdog (3.5+) week 1 in a divisional game. That’s a lucrative betting situation. They’re also 7+ point underdogs in a divisional game in general, another lucrative betting situation. However, I’m not betting anything against this New England team until they prove me wrong. This is the best team in the league and Miami has a whole mess of problems. New England blew out Miami in Miami last year (and then for good measure did so week 17 at home even though they sat their starters in the 2^nd half). Why can’t they do the same this year?

Denver Broncos 20 Oakland Raiders 13

Spread: Denver -3

Pick against spread: Denver 2 units (-220)

This is a situation where a divisional game has a line of 3 or less. In this situation, the favorite is 15-5 ATS since 2000 in week 1. That puts Denver at an advantage. I also think Denver will be more motivated. They’re a team that doesn’t have a lot of nationally televised games so they’ll be extremely amped up by having a Monday Night game against a divisional rival.

Denver is also a very good home team. Road opponents hate having to deal with that thin air a mile high in Denver. They’re 45-27 at home since 2002 and 33-39 on the road. Even last year when they sucked, they went 3-5 at home, as opposed to 1-7 on the road. Oakland is the worse team in this matchup as well, so I’m giving the home team the advantage here.

Vegas Hilton picks (for anyone playing): St. Louis +4.5 over Philadelphia, Buffalo +6.5 over Kansas City, Indianapolis +9 over Houston, Seattle +5 over San Francisco, Dallas +4 over NY Jets

 

 

Last week overall: 2-2

Last week ATS: 1-3 (-290/-2 units)

Overall picks: 167-93 (.642)

Upset Picks: 1-2 (+120/-1 unit)

ATS Picks: 109-143-8 (-12335/-91 units)

Survivor picks: 13-5 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN, TB, TEN, HOU, ARI, NO)

Upset picks: 30-34 (+3290/+6 units)

Prop Bets: +188 

2010 Total: +6408

2010/2011 Total: -2449

 

San Francisco 49ers 23 New Orleans Saints 20 Upset Pick (+170)

Pick against spread: San Francisco +3.5 (-110) 2 units (+200)

How can Alex Smith possibly keep up with Drew Brees? That’s all I’ve been hearing all week. Everyone and their dog thinks the Saints are going to win here. In fact, the 49ers are the first team to get a first round bye and then be home dogs in their first playoff game since…ever. That’s never happened before. And the public is still pounding New Orleans -3.5. That has to suggest trap line. You also know that Jim Harbaugh is preaching an “us against the world” and “no one believes in us” message in that locker room, as he’s been doing all season as the 49ers have gone to a 13-3 record, including a 11-3-2 ATS record. Vegas has been undervaluing them all season.

In a bubble, there would be no way Alex Smith could keep up with Drew Brees. Drew Brees might be the league’s MVP and is certainly the league’s hottest quarterback at the moment. However, Drew Brees has a few things working against him. He has to play outdoors in the elements in San Francisco and against the 49ers’ top ranked scoring defense.

The Saints’ road struggles are well documented. They are 5-3 on the road this season, as opposed to 8-0 at home, but they lost in Tampa Bay to a Tampa Bay team that lost 10 straight immediately afterwards and in St. Louis to a St. Louis team that won one other game all season. In the last two seasons, the Saints are 3-8 ATS in non-divisional road games. This season, they are averaging 41.6 points per game at home, but only 27.3 points per game on the road. Meanwhile, Drew Brees is 216 of 300 (72.0%) for 2624 yards (8.8 YPA), 29 touchdowns and 6 picks at home. On the road, he is 252 of 357 (70.6%) for 2852 yards (8.0 YPA), 17 touchdowns and 8 picks.

As well documented as the Saints’ road struggles are, there hasn’t been enough said about the 49ers success at home. They’re allowing a mere 10.9 points per game at home, 7.2 points per game at home in their last 6 games (Tampa Bay, Cleveland, NY Giants, Arizona, St. Louis, Pittsburgh). I know that’s not the toughest schedule, but that’s definitely worth nothing.

They haven’t played a quarterback of Drew Brees’ caliber, but they’ve played 5 quarterbacks who are at least solid, ranking top 13 in quarterback rating this season. Tony Romo (4^th) was 20 of 33 for 345 yards, 2 touchdowns and no picks. Matt Stafford (5^th) was 28 of 50 for 293 yards, 2 touchdowns and no picks. Eli Manning (7^th) was 26 of 40 for 311 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 picks. Ben Roethlisberger (10th) was hurt, but he went 25 of 44 for 330 yards, no touchdowns and 3 picks. Michael Vick (13^th) was 30-46 for 416 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 pick. That’s a combined 129 of 213 (60.6%) for 1695 yards (8.0 YPA), 8 touchdowns and 6 picks.

Finally, there is one trend that works against the Saints. Teams that score 35+ in the playoffs are actually 6-14 ATS the next week. I think the Saints are overvalued by Vegas here and there’s a possibility that this is a trap line considering how much the public is pounding New Orleans. San Francisco is the first round 2 home dog ever. The Saints aren’t the same team on the road and the 49ers have the type of defense that can limit their explosive offense. They tend to struggle in the elements and it’ll be plenty windy in San Francisco. In fact, last season, the Saints barely won in San Francisco and the 49ers were nowhere near as good as they are now. I think this will be a close game either way. I think the 49ers will win, but if the Saints win, I still like getting 3.5 points with the 49ers because we could easily see this being a field goal game.

New England Patriots 31 Denver Broncos 27

Pick against spread: Denver +13.5 (-110) 4 units

The Broncos beat the Steelers, but there’s no way they can possibly beat the Patriots right? Well, that seems to be what Vegas thinks as they’ve made New England 13.5 point favorites, the 3^rd largest line in playoff history (1-1 ATS) and 3.5 points higher than the Patriots were at home for the Bills (-10). I think New England has a good shot at winning here, but that line is ridiculous.

The Patriots are far from a perfect team. They have one of the worst defenses in NFL history, specifically against the pass. They’re also slow starters. On their 8 game winning streak, they’ve been outscored 60-37 in the first quarter. Now, of course they’ve outscored opponents 257-92 from the 2^nd quarter on, but it’s not like they played a tough schedule. That kind of stuff might not fly in the playoffs. In fact, on that 8 game winning streak, they only played one playoff team.

That one playoff team was these Broncos, their only win against playoff teams all season (1-2 with losses to NY Giants, and Pittsburgh). That game was 41-23 in Denver, just a few weeks ago. Tom Brady was in eff you mode leading the Patriots to 41 points and putting an end to Tebowmania. I can imagine he could be in eff you mode this week once again as Tebowmania is back and of course he has that 3 game playoff losing streak to try to end. Joe Montana once lost 3 games in a row in the playoffs and then won his 4^th Super Bowl the next season, so it’s not totally damning for Brady, but he’ll be extremely motivated to try to put an end to that streak this week.

That doesn’t necessarily mean Tom Brady and company will score 40+ again. They were aided by 3 Denver fumbles. Denver obviously can’t give Brady and company extra possessions again this week so they better hope that was a fluke. The Broncos also now have Von Miller playing at a higher level now that he’s healthier than he was in their previous meeting. That will allow the Broncos to get more pressure on Brady than they did last time and Miller’s ability in coverage and against the run as a linebacker will also help stop the Patriots.

Still, the Patriots will score. You have to predict that. They’re almost definitely scoring 30 again. They’ve scored 30+ in 7 of their last 8 games and 12 of 16 overall. Dating back to last season, including their playoff loss to New York, they’ve scored 30+ in 20 of their last 25. However, as bad as the Patriots defense is and as good as Tebow played last week against a much better Pittsburgh defense after John Fox and the rest of the coaching staff started letting him throw other than in non-obvious passing situations. They’ll also be able to run on the Patriots defense like that did last time. In fact, if it wasn’t for those 3 fumbles, their last matchup would have been a lot closer. One trend that works for Denver, teams are 58-44 ATS in the playoffs trying to avenge a regular season loss since 2002.

Two trends that work in Denver’s favor relate to last week’s win over the Steelers. Teams are 10-6 ATS off an overtime playoff win since 2002, while teams are 7-4 ATS off a win as 7+ dogs in the playoffs in that same time period. The Patriots scored 49 points week 17 and teams that score 35+ week 17 are 14-6 ATS in their first playoff game since 2002, 9-2 ATS as favorites, but as bad as the Patriots have been as double digit favorites recently, 3-13 ATS in their last 16, 3-11 ATS with Brady, 0-2 ATS with Cassel, I still like the Broncos this week.

The Patriots defense isn’t very good and Tebow is playing well now. The Broncos have had 12 of their 17 games decided by a touchdown or less (8-4 SU). Of the 5 games that weren’t, one was a Denver win, two were close except turnovers (New England, Buffalo), one was against the Packers with Kyle Orton, and one was a legitimate blowout loss by the Tebow led Broncos.

I expect this to be a close game and stay within the 13.5, but at the end of the day, I’m taking the Patriots. They’re still the most experienced playoff team and no team with a point differential of -50 or less in the regular season (Denver) has ever won more than one playoff game. Tebow might be clutch, but Brady’s got that clutch gene too. I actually trust him more in a close game than I do Tebow. It’s Brady time!

Note: I’m putting 1 unit on the Broncos +595 on the money line. The 6 to 1 is just too good to pass on. They could win in New England. It’s way more possible than 6 to 1.

 

Green Bay Packers 38 New York Giants 24

Pick against spread: Green Bay -8 (+100) 3 units

In 2007, the Giants lost to the undefeated New England Patriots by 3 in the regular season and then beat them in the Super Bowl. This year, the Giants lost to the undefeated Green Bay Packers by 3 in the regular season. They’ve gotten hot at the right time, winning 4 of their last 5. They shut out the Falcons offense last week. Eli Manning is playing the best football of his career and has great receivers around him, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, Mario Manningham, Jake Ballard, the running game has come alive finally and the defense is playing it’s best football at the right time led by their finally healthy defensive line which can get after the quarterback better than maybe anyone in football.

Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers won’t have played in 3 weeks. I don’t know why this isn’t getting more mention and I’ll never understand why teams rest their starters for the whole game when they have a bye in the first round of the playoffs. You’re taking a huge risk in throwing the starters off their rhythm. The Giants matchup well with the Packers. They almost beat them a few weeks ago and they can get pressure without blitzing, always a key, especially with as banged up the Packers’ offensive line is.

The problem is, all that stuff I said above is what everyone is saying this week. The Packers are rusty. The Giants matchup well with them. The Giants are hot. The Giants almost beat them in the regular season. The Giants remind me of the 2007 Giants. Aaron Rodgers is going to come out in eff you mode. They’re basically underdogs (in reality the Giants are public dogs, and one of the biggest public dogs I’ve seen in a while, roughly 70-75% of the action is on the Giants).

The Packerd can play the “nobody believes in us card.” The 2007 Giants had the element of surprise. The 2011 Giants don’t. Everyone expects them to make a “surprise” run to the Super Bowl. They’re so underrated that they’ve become overrated. They also don’t have the same offensive line or running game or back seven they had in 2007. The pass rush is still there and Eli is even better, but the Packers are better than any team they played in 2007. The Packers are a 15-1 team. Newsflash. They’re really, really good. Now they’re just 8 point favorites at home over a team that lost to the Redskins a few weeks ago and has a really banged up back 7 and signature wins over the Jets, Cowboys, and Falcons? I’m taking the Packers.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Houston Texans 9 Lock Pick

Pick against spread: Baltimore -9 (+110) 3 units

The Texans lost 29-14 to the Ravens in Baltimore earlier this season and that was WITH Matt Schaub. Matt Schaub is out. Andre Johnson is back, but I don’t give the Texans much chance to score this week. They’re a run heavy offense and the Ravens can bottle up even the best of rushing attacks. The Ravens have been inconsistent this season, but I think they’re focused here off a bye. One of, if not the most impressive game of their season was against Houston and that was off a bye.

The Ravens are also 7-1 ATS against teams with winning records this season. They’re focused for good team and they’ll be even more focused now that this is the playoffs and they’ve had a week off. They may be 2-6-1 ATS as favorites of 6+, but one of those two wins was against these Houston Texans -7 in a situation very similar to this, at home, off a bye. Also, Houston was -7 earlier this season and didn’t cover and now they’re just -9 with extra juice without Matt Schaub? Teams may be 58-44 ATS in the playoffs trying to avenge a regular season loss since 2002, 20-12 ATS trying to avenge a 14+ point loss, but I’m taking the Ravens here.

 

 

 

Last week overall: 11-5

Last week ATS: 8-8 (+465/+7 units)

Overall picks: 165-91 (.645)

Upset Picks: 2-3 (-10/-1 unit)

ATS Picks: 108-140-8 (-12045/-89 units)

Survivor picks: 12-5 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN, TB, TEN, HOU, ARI)

Upset picks: 29-32 (+3170/+7 units)

Prop Bets: +188 

2010 Total: +6408

2010/2011 Total: -2279

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Houston Texans 20 Upset Pick (+130)

Pick against spread: Cincinnati +3 (-115) 2 units (-230)

Neither of these sides seems particularly good to bet on. On one hand, the Bengals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8, 3-5 SU, with wins over Arizona by 7, St. Louis by 7, and Cleveland by 3. They’re also 1-6 ATS against playoff teams this season, with that one cover coming against the Kyle Orton Broncos and they didn’t even win that one. In fact, they’re 0-7 SU against playoff teams this season (Pittsburgh twice, Baltimore twice, Houston, Denver, and San Francisco). That’s opposed to 9-0 SU against non-playoff teams. But at the same time, Houston has lost 3 straight to non-playoff teams (Carolina, Indianapolis, Tennessee).

Given that, I’m not sure if we can even count the Texans as a playoff team. They’re so banged up, especially offensively with TJ Yates starting in this one as their 3^rd string quarterback and even he is going to be playing through a separated non-throwing shoulder. If anything happens to him, it’s Jake Delhomme for the Texans. As bad as the Texans have been playing, I’m not even sure how much relevance the Bengals’ record against playoff teams is.

What is relevant is that the Texans beat the Bengals in Cincinnati earlier this season, but that was 3 weeks ago and only by 1 point, taking a big, late comeback to do it. There’s also a related trend to that loss. Teams are 57-41 ATS trying to avenge a loss in the playoffs since 2002, 15-9 ATS on the road trying to avenge a home loss.

One similarity between these two teams is that they are starting rookie quarterbacks. Cincinnati is starting Andy Dalton and Houston is starting TJ Yates. Rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle in the playoffs, but I’d trust Dalton more than Yates. Besides, Yates has more pressure on him as home favorites. Quarterbacks starting their first playoff game are 6-19 SU since 2003, but 2-10 ATS as home favorites, as opposed to 5-5 ATS as road dogs. I don’t love Cincinnati, but I think they’re the right side and the better team so I like getting points with the better team.

New Orleans Saints 31 Detroit Lions 27 Lock/Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Detroit +11 (-110) 3 units (-330)

This is another rematch. The Saints beat the Lions a few weeks ago by a score of 31-17 in New Orleans. However, Detroit was missing one of their best defensive players, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, due to suspension. His return will help the Lions as they try to contain Drew Brees, but they’re still not going to have a lot of success doing so. They also didn’t have Kevin Smith in that one after an early injury and I expect his return to have the bigger impact. The Saints aren’t a great run defense, but the Lions simply didn’t have anyone to take advantage of that last time as Maurice Morris struggled for 28 yards on 12 carries after Smith went down. Now they do. Smith rushed for 34 yards and a score on 6 carries before getting hurt.

There is one trend related to that loss, as teams trying to avenge a 14+ point loss are 20-11 ATS in the playoffs since 2002. Besides, it’s not like the Saints have been good as large favorites under Sean Payton with a 4-10 ATS record in those games, 4-9 ATS since the start of the 2009 season, when they really started playing at an elite level. I still like New Orleans to win, but Detroit is talented enough for a backdoor cover or even a legitimately close game here, especially with the trends on their side.

 

Atlanta Falcons 27 New York Giants 24 Upset Pick (+135)

Pick against spread: Atlanta +3 (-115) 2 units (-230)

The Giants made the playoffs, but they’re hardly playing good football right now. Eli Manning is good, as is Victor Cruz, but that’s about all they have going from them. They can rush the passer, but the rest of their defense is pretty bad and their offensive line and running game are a far cry from what they’ve been in the past.

They finished this season 3-5 after a 6-2 start with those 3 wins coming against an 8-8 Jets team that finished on a 3 game losing streak themselves and the Cowboys, who finished the season 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games. They’ve always been better in the first half than the 2^nd half under Tom Coughlin, going 47-17 SU in the first half since Coughlin took over in 2004 and 27-37 SU in the second half of the season. They’ve also only won a playoff game in one season under Coughlin, missing the playoffs or being one and done in the other 7 seasons.

The Falcons, meanwhile, do tend to struggle on the road, but I really like their team. Outside of the top 6 (GB, NE, NO, SF, PIT, BAL), I give them the best chance to make a deep run in the playoffs and one team always seems to come out of Wild Card weekend and make a deeper run than most expect. I don’t know if Atlanta necessarily does that (a win here sends them to Lambeau next week), but I do like them to win here over an overrated Giants team that seems ripe for another playoff flop.

Denver Broncos 16 Pittsburgh Steelers 13 Upset Pick (+320)

Pick against spread: Denver +9 (-115) 6 units (+600)

Time travel with me for a bit. The year is 2011. The Seattle Seahawks had just made the playoffs as a 7-9 team from the NFC West, the NFL’s worst division. Everyone thought they were a joke who had no business being in the playoffs and they were 10 point home dogs for the New Orleans Saints, who was in the middle of another strong season in their quest to repeat as Super Bowl Champions. Everyone and their dog bet on New Orleans, but I recognized it as an obvious trap line.

New Orleans had struggled in the elements before and Seattle had a huge home field advantage. The Seahawks also had the “no one believes in us factor.” Besides, that was only the 2^nd time all season that a team had been double digit home dogs, with the first being Carolina with Brian St. Pierre at quarterback against the eventual 12-4 Baltimore Ravens. Carolina deserved to be double digit home dogs there, but the Seahawks certainly didn’t. I picked the Seahawks to cover (one of my favorite plays of the year) and they shocked even me as they not only covered the 10.5, but won outright.

Back to 2012. Denver makes the playoffs as an 8-8 team out of an awful division, the AFC West. They’re on a 3 game losing streak, losing by a combined 88-40, including the last two against sub .500 teams, the Chiefs and the Bills. They’re playing awful. There’s no question about that. Tebow has regressed as a passer as teams have caught onto him some and John Fox’s retarded game plan which only lets Tebow throw on clear passing downs, on which throws tend to be low percentage, gets stupider by the week. The defense hasn’t been the same since Von Miller’s thumb injury. They aren’t running the ball well anymore and the offensive line has been awful, as have the receivers. But are the Steelers playing any better?

Ben Roethlisberger is clearly not healthy. They barely beat the Browns 13-9 and in Ben Roethlisberger’s last two games since the injury, they’ve beaten Cleveland 14-3 and lost to San Francisco 20-3. The only game they’ve looked good in throughout their last 4 was the St. Louis game, in which a healthy Charlie Batch led Pittsburgh to a 27-0 against an awful St. Louis team that can make almost anyone look good. Now Rashard Mendenhall is out with a knee injury as well.

Even when Ben Roethlisberger and Rashard Mendenhall were healthy, they had trouble putting away bad teams. Indianapolis only lost by 3, Jacksonville only by 4, Tyler Palko’s Kansas City Chiefs only by 4, and then of course, the two Cleveland games I mentioned. Even the biggest Tebow hater would have to agree that the Broncos are at least a little bit better than that group of jokers. Besides, the Steelers have always struggled as large favorites. Ben Roethlisberger is 3-10 ATS as road favorites of 7+, 1-8 ATS as road favorites of 9+, 5-12 ATS as non-divisional favorites of 9+ (home or away).

Like I felt last year, I feel this line could be a trap line. There have only been 8 games where the road team was favored by 9+ this season, Green Bay/Carolina, Pittsburgh/Indianapolis, Green Bay/Minnesota, Baltimore/Jacksonville, New Orleans/St. Louis, Pittsburgh/Kansas City, Green Bay/Kansas City, San Francisco/St. Louis. On paper, this game might not look that even, but it certainly looks more even than those 8 games, but Vegas is feeding off the public’s perception that the Broncos are absolute crap with this line, just like they fed (and profited) off of the public’s perception that the Seahawks were absolute crap last year. And the kicker, of those 8 teams favored by 9+ on the road, none of them covered. In fact, 3 of them lost (Baltimore in Jacksonville, New Orleans in St. Louis, Green Bay in Kansas City).

Another prominent trap line was in Super Bowl 42. The Patriots were double digit favorites on a neutral field. That line prayed on the public’s belief that the New York Giants were the worst team to ever make the Super Bowl and that the Patriots were awesome and invincible. A lot of people lost a lot of money that day, just like a lot of people lost a lot of money last year picking the Saints and a lot of people would lose a lot of money this year picking the Steelers (if this is a trap, the public is eating it up and betting heavily on the Steelers, which is a good sign.)

The most obvious sign that this line is a trap, Pittsburgh was 7 point favorites in Cleveland last week and didn’t cover. Now they’re 9 point favorites in Denver? Denver is worse than Cleveland?! Vegas isn’t stupid. This line was designed for a reason, to trap bettors into betting Pittsburgh and feed off the public jumping ship from the Tebow bandwagon.

The Broncos also have the “nobody believes in us” advantage here. Everyone is counting them out and that is an extremely powerful motivator. The Steelers could also not take them seriously, which works to their advantage as well. As bad as the Broncos have been over the past 3 weeks, they’re still 5-2 ATS as dogs under Tebow this season. They also have a big home field advantage. It’s not quite Qwest Field, but the Broncos have very loyal fans who will be very excited for their team’s first trip to the postseason since 2005.

This home field advantage will also have one more tangible, noticeable effect. In 2007, Ryan Clark made his first trip to Denver to play the Broncos and became near deathly ill. Clark has a sickle cell trait, along with another condition, which did not react well when Clark attempted to play in Denver’s high altitude. Clark lost 30 pounds, the rest of his season, and had to have his spleen removed. He did not play when the Steelers returned to Denver in 2009 and though they’re saying it’s possible he could play this week if he’s cleared by a doctor, I doubt he gets cleared and plays. After what happened last time, it’s too big of a risk. In the big picture, it’s just a football game. Assuming he doesn’t play, his absence certainly doesn’t help things for the Steelers. He’s their leading tackler.

One final parallel to last year’s Seahawks/Saints game is that the Steelers made the Super Bowl last year. Teams who make the playoffs (whether they win it or lose it) tend to struggle the following season. No defending Super Bowl Champion has won a playoff game since the Patriots in 2004 and no Super Bowl Runner Up has won the Super Bowl the next year since the 1973 Dolphins and only 2 Super Bowl Runner Ups have won playoff games since 1998 (2006 Seahawks, 2009 Cardinals).

And the final reason I like the Broncos this week is that bad teams tend to do pretty well in the playoffs. I’ve beaten the Seahawks/Saints story to death, but two other teams had average records and poor points differentials and made the playoffs (the Broncos finished -81 on the season). The 9-7 Arizona Cardinals in 1998 made the playoffs with a differential of -53. They ended up winning their road playoff game by 13 in Dallas, the franchise’s first since 1947. The 8-8 Rams made in it 2004 with a differential of -73. They ended up winning in Seattle by 7. In both cases, it could easily be argued that the bad playoff team was simply overlooked. The last 4 8-8 or 7-9 playoff teams won in the first round (St. Louis, Minnesota in 2004, San Diego in 2008, Seattle in 2010).

I’m hesitant to pick the Broncos to win straight up (although I was hesitant to pick Seattle to win straight up last year and look what happened there), but I love them to cover. The Steelers are not healthy and not playing good football and they always seem to have trouble as big favorites, especially on the road. They’ll also miss Ryan Clark’s services in the secondary, as well as Rashard Mendenhall’s at running back. This line looks like a trap line when you compare these two teams to the teams in the other 8 games which featured 9+ point road favorites this season, in which those road favorites were 0-8 ATS and just 5-3 SU. It also looks like a trap line when you see that Pittsburgh was just -7 in Cleveland last weekend and didn’t even cover.

Meanwhile, the Broncos will have a very excited crowd on their side, a huge home field advantage (high altitude is no fun for any visiting player to play in, even if it doesn’t make them near deathly ill), and the “nobody believes in us factor.” I’m expecting this to be a very close, low scoring game with the Steelers eventually prevailing, but failing to cover. The Broncos have had 12 of their 16 games decided by 7 or less (8-4 SU), while the Steelers have had 8 of 16 games decided by 8 or less (6-2 SU). Although, as long as it’s close, you never know, we might get some Tebow Time, though he’s come up empty in his last 3 tries. Couldn’t you just see him breaking off a Marshawn Lynch style Beast Mode run to win it late? I am picking the Steelers to advance though.

Sunday Morning Update: Putting 1 unit on Denver +320 to win straight up. 3 to 1 odds is too good of value. Also putting 6 on Denver +9. This is one of my favorite picks of the year.

 

 

 

32(31). St. Louis Rams 2-13

31(32). Indianapolis Colts 2-13

30(30). Minnesota Vikings 3-12

29(29). Cleveland Browns 4-11

28(28). Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-11

27(27). Jacksonville Jaguars 4-11

26(24). Washington Redskins 5-10

25(25). Miami Dolphins 5-10

24(26). Buffalo Bills 6-9

23(23). Carolina Panthers 6-9

22(22). Kansas City Chiefs 6-9

21(21). Chicago Bears 7-8

20(17). Seattle Seahawks 7-8

19(16). Arizona Cardinals 7-8

18(14). San Diego Chargers 7-8

17(20). Philadelphia Eagles 7-8

 

16(18). New York Giants 8-7

15(15). Oakland Raiders 8-7

14(12). Dallas Cowboys 8-7

13(19). Tennessee Titans 8-7

12(9). Denver Broncos 8-7

11(10). New York Jets 8-7

10(13). Cincinnati Bengals 9-6

9(8). Atlanta Falcons 9-6

8(7). Houston Texans 10-5

7(11). Detroit Lions 10-5

6(6). Baltimore Ravens 11-4

5(5). Pittsburgh Steelers 11-4

4(3). New Orleans Saints 12-3

3(4). San Francisco 49ers 12-3

2(2). New England Patriots 12-3

1(1). Green Bay Packers 14-1

 

Last week overall: 9-7

Last week ATS: 4-12 (-2135/-19 units)

Overall picks: 154-86 (.642)

Upset Picks: 3-4 (+85/-1 unit)

ATS Picks: 100-132-8 (-12510/-96 units)

Survivor picks: 11-5 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN, TB, TEN, HOU)

Upset picks: 27-30 (+3180/+8 units) 

2010 Total: +6408

2010/2011 Total: -2922

Green Bay Packers 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick (+160)

Pick against spread: Green Bay +3 (+105) 2 units (+210)

Aaron Rodgers and company are only expected to play about a quarter is this one. The Packers have locked up home field throughout the NFC with their win last week. Meanwhile, the Lions are going to play hard all game in an attempt to secure the NFC’s 5^th seed. If they lose, then they need Atlanta to lose at home to crappy Tampa Bay to get the #5 seed and if they get stuck with the 6 seed, they have to go to New Orleans in the first round rather than Dallas/New York.

However, we’re getting 3 points with the Packers at home. I have to take that. Even if the starters only play 1 quarter, the Packers could already be up 7-0 or 10-3. Besides, Matt Flynn is not a bad backup quarterback at all. He went 24 of 37 for 251 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a pick last year against New England. He’s a free agent after the season so this is his showcase to show he can start in this league. The Packers won’t be completely doomed without Rodgers and the rest of the starters, especially if they give Flynn a 7 point lead to start. Even if they lose, I can see them keeping it within 3.

Tennessee Titans 23 Houston Texans 17

Pick against spread: Tennessee Titans -3 (+105) 1 unit (-100)

The Texans don’t need to try in this one. They’re stuck in the #3 seed no matter what, but it doesn’t appear they’ll rest their starters. They don’t want to go into the playoffs with a 3 game losing streak to teams with worse records than them and TJ Yates needs all the reps he can get. In fact, the Texans are even likely bringing back Andre Johnson from injury to play in this one.

However, I still really feel they’ll treat this as a scrimmage, basically a preseason game. The Titans could easily be their first round opponent and they don’t want to give away too much of their game plan and playbook so expect the Texans to come out with a very vanilla game plan. In 2009, the Cardinals and Packers met week 17 knowing there was a good chance they would meet again in the first round of the playoffs. The Cardinals showed none of their hand week 17 and got their ass kicked 33-7, but eventually got the last word in the playoffs where they had an advantage.

For the Titans, this is a must win, so obviously they’ll try very hard. They’ll also play very hard to avenge their embarrassing 41-7 loss to Houston earlier this season. Favorites trying to avenge a 21+ point loss as favorites are 23-8 ATS since 2002, 11-4 ATS trying to avenge a divisional 21+ point loss. I don’t know if I agree with the Titans being 3 point road favorites here, but I think they’re the right side. They aren’t the best team, but the Texans aren’t very good either. They haven’t scored more than 20 since Matt Schaub got hurt.

Fun fact, the Titans’ last 3 wins have had the score 23-17. They also lost to Atlanta week 11 23-17, which means that 4 of their last 6 games and all 3 of their last 3 wins had the score 23-17. On top of that, their loss to New Orleans was 22-17.

Indianapolis Colts 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 13 Upset Pick (+170)

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +3.5 (-115) 3 units (-345)

All the Colts need to do is lose here and they can draft Andrew Luck if they so choose. They’ll obviously lay down and die right? Not necessarily. They’ve won 2 in a row and didn’t look like they wanted to lay down and die when they led a game winning drive against Houston last week. They’ve been playing much better football of late. Dan Orlovsky is 4-0 ATS since taking over as the starting quarterback.

Besides, while it is possible Jim Irsay will tell his team to lay down and die, it’s also possible he secretly wants his team NOT to get the #1 pick so he doesn’t have the deal with the Luck/Manning dilemma and can just take Matt Kalil at #2. It’s also possible that the Jaguars lay down and die so the Colts DON’T get Andrew Luck. It might not be a coincidence that the Colts’ last 2 wins were both divisional wins. Their divisional rivals can’t want this kid in the division.

The Jaguars beat the Colts 17-3 in Indianapolis earlier this season, but the way the Colts have been better of late. They are better than the Jaguars, who can only score 17+ points against Tampa Bay’s terrible defense when their own defense forces 7 turnovers. This line says the Jags are a little better than the Colts which I don’t agree with. I wouldn’t take Jacksonville as more than 3 more favorites over anyone right now. In fact, as 3+ home favorites, they’re an embarrassing 2-9 ATS since 2008. They’re also 3-11 ATS after a divisional loss since 2007 and they lost to Tennessee last weekend, who, by the way, the Colts beat the week before.

Finally, the Colts are on extra rest here. Excluding teams coming off the week 1 Thursday night game, after which teams tend to be flat, teams are 41-27 ATS after a Thursday game since 2008. I believe the Colts can go into Jacksonville and win and even if they don’t, they can definitely keep this within a field goal of the offensively challenged Jaguars. Their great pass rushers will wreak havoc and force a skittish Blaine Gabbert into some bad throws. I like getting more than 3 with the Colts here for a medium sized bet.

New York Jets 24 Miami Dolphins 17 Upset Pick (+150)

Pick against spread: NY Jets +3 (-105) 3 units (+300)

This line suggests that the Jets and Dolphins are essentially equals. I disagree with that. They are playing better football under Matt Moore, but remember, Matt Moore still has yet to beat anyone who is any good. In fact, he struggled mightily against these same Jets earlier this season going 16 of 34 for 204 yards and 2 picks. The Jets have one of the better defenses in the league and a confusing scheme so it’s very possible he struggles once again. To make matters worse, Matt Moore won’t have talented blindside protector Jake Long in this one either as he’s done for the season with injury. Reggie Bush is also going to miss this game, right when he was breaking out as a legitimate feature back.

The Dolphins did almost beat the Patriots last week in New England, but I could see how that could actually hurt them this week. They could be very flat after leading by 17 over the Patriots and failing to put them away, losing 27-24. Since 2002, they’re 3-8 ATS after losing to the Patriots and last week’s loss was especially heartbreaking for them.

Besides, last week was on the road and for some reason they are better on the road than at home. Since 2008, they are 22-10 ATS on the road and 10-22 ATS at home. Their home struggles are more in depth than that. As favorites, they are 6-14 ATS since 2008, as opposed to 23-17 ATS as dogs. Dolphins are 5-11 ATS as home favorites since 2008. One trend for the Dolphins is that divisional favorites trying to avenge a loss as divisional dogs are 34-23 ATS since 2008. But, I like the Jets here for a solid sized bet.

Minnesota Vikings 17 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against spread: Minnesota -1 (-115) 1 unit (-115)

There are conflicting trends here. On one hand, the Vikings will want revenge for the Bears 39-10 destruction of them earlier this season. Divisional favorites trying to avenge a loss as divisional dogs are 34-23 ATS since 2008. Divisional favorites trying to avenge a 21+ point loss are 29-14 ATS since 2002. They’ll definitely be motivated.

On the other hand, the Bears are in a good situation in their 2^nd of 2 on the road, a situation teams are 168-125 ATS in since 2008. Teams in that situation off a loss are 88-65 ATS since 2008 and teams in that situation off a loss in their 2^nd of 2 as road dogs are 55-37 ATS since 2008 as the trends say this game is a relative toss up.

I’m going with the Vikings here for just a unit because I think this line is a little off. I’d say these teams are about equal now. The Bears have no offensive playmakers and are down to their 3^rd string quarterback and running back and also missing one of their best receivers, Johnny Knox. The Vikings may be missing Adrian Peterson, but I think they still have enough to win a low scoring game against a Chicago team on a 5 game losing streak who could be flat after a loss to divisional rival Green Bay.

New England Patriots 38 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against spread: New England -10 (-110) 3 units (+300)

Over/Under: Over 51 1 unit (Patriots 10-5, Bills 9-6) (+100)

The Patriots barely beat the Dolphins last week and now they are 10 point favorites to the Bills. They have no defense and the public seems to have caught on as the Bills are actually public underdogs this week. As I’ve mentioned before, I love betting against public underdogs, but that’s not the only reason I love the Patriots in this situation.

The Patriots barely escaped last week with a win and I expect them to play their hearts out this week to compensate. A few weeks ago, Washington almost beat them and the Patriots came out the next week and thrashed the Broncos. Besides, this is a revenge game for Bill Belichick. Bill Belichick is 42-24 ATS against teams he previously lost to, 25-11 ATS against teams he previously lost to as a favorite since 2000.

Not only is this a revenge game, but this is a divisional revenge game. Bill Belichick is 19-6 ATS against divisional teams he previously lost to, 12-2 ATS against divisional teams he previously lost to as a favorite since 2000. The fact that this is a huge line shouldn’t scare you off too much. BB is 6-3 ATS as 7+ favorites against teams he previously lost to as a favorite since 2000, 5-0 ATS as 7+ favorites against divisional teams he previously lost to as a favorite since 2000. Finally, teams are 41-27 ATS trying to avenge a divisional loss of 3 or fewer.

One more trend for the Patriots, teams coming off a win in which they allowed 21+ points are 152-103 ATS since 2008, 98-62 ATS as favorites. Teams may be 29-43 ATS off a close divisional win (3 or fewer points) are since 2008, 11-27 ATS as favorites, but the Patriots are actually 4-1 ATS in this situation under Bill Belichick. However, this will not be a huge bet because I don’t trust New England’s defense enough to heavily bet on them as double digit favorites.

New Orleans Saints 34 Carolina Panthers 31

Pick against spread: Carolina +9 (-125) 3 units (-375)

The Saints are coming off a huge win on MNF. Normally, I would bet on them in this situation because of the powerful trend associated with teams coming off MNF wins of 21+. Teams in that situation are 26-11 ATS since 2002. However, there’s a very good chance the Saints’ starters don’t play the whole game.

Drew Brees has already broken his record and if the 49ers beat the Rams, the Saints are stuck in the #3 seed no matter what. The Saints/Panthers and the 49ers/Rams games happen concurrently, but we saw this last year. The Saints pulled their starters at halftime of their week 17 game against Tampa Bay (an eventual loss) because Atlanta was killing Carolina, making New Orleans’ game meaningless. The Rams are so bad that the 49ers could be up big at halftime and if they are, expect the Saints to rest starters week 17 for the 3^rd straight year. Given that, I can’t bet on the Saints as large favorites here.

Besides, the Saints struggle as large favorites normally. They are 5-11 ATS since 2006 as favorites of 9+ (4-10 ATS as favorites of 10+). You might think that has changed since they’ve gotten better, but since their Super Bowl winning season in 2009, they’re still only 5-9 ATS as favorites of 9+ (4-9 ATS as 10+ favorites. Besides, Cam Newton is the type of quarterback who can get a late backdoor cover with ease. And the Panthers have already almost beaten the Saints this year, losing by 3 to them earlier. They proved they can hang with them and teams trying to avenge a divisional loss of 3 or less are 41-27 ATS since 2008, 23-11 ATS as dogs.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Washington Redskins 21

Pick against spread: Washington +9 (-125) 1 unit (-125)

The Eagles looked done at 4-8 after a loss to Seattle and it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Andy Reid would get fired. Well, 3 weeks later, they are officially done, but they sit at 7-8 and are finally playing like the team we thought they could be at the beginning of the season and can get to .500 with a win here. Also, Andy Reid’s job is looking much, much safer.

However, it’s tough to tell how they’ll come out in this one. They got eliminated last weekend so they could be flat, but at the same time they’ve played some of their best football in games when the pressure has been off and it’s certainly off now. There are no major trends here, but the tiebreaker here for me is how much the Eagles have struggled as large favorites this season. They haven’t covered a line higher than 5 all season, going 0-4 ATS in such games. Washington has the type of offense that can get a backdoor cover as well.

 

San Francisco 49ers 20 St. Louis Rams 3

Pick against spread: San Francisco -10.5 (-110) 2 units (-220)

Over/Under: Under 35.5 1 unit (49ers 6-9, Rams 4-9-2) (-110)

Normally I hate betting on double digit road favorites. Teams are just 0-6 ATS in this situation this year. There’s also a tough trend working against San Francisco, coming off a close 2 point win over Seattle last weekend. Teams coming off a divisional win by 3 or fewer are 29-43 ATS since 2008, 11-27 ATS as favorites.

However, that being said, I can’t bet on St. Louis. They’ve been shut out twice in the last 4 weeks and have scored 26 points total in the last 4 weeks, 13 in their last 3 without Sam Bradford. Their offense was terrible with him, but they’re even worse without him. One of their two recent shutouts was in San Francisco just 4 weeks ago and even though this game is in St. Louis, it’s conceivable they could be shut out or close to shut out again. The 49ers have the league’s best scoring defense so I would find it unlikely that St. Louis gets out of single digits.

There also is a powerful trend working in San Francisco’s favor. Teams are 168-125 ATS in their 2^nd straight road game since 2008, 31-17 ATS is their 2^nd straight as favorites, 22-11 ATS in their 2^nd straight as favorites after a win. This is won’t be a very big bet, but I do like San Francisco in this situation almost solely on St. Louis’ ineptitude.

Atlanta Falcons 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against spread: Atlanta -11 (-110) 2 units (+200)

Atlanta is in a bad situation coming off a MNF loss of 21+. Teams in this situation are 13-23 ATS since 2002, 6-13 ATS off a divisional loss of 21+. However, Tampa Bay has absolutely quit and things won’t get much better this week with news that their coach is almost definitely getting fired after the season. They’ve surrendered 30+ to 6 of their last 7 opponents so Atlanta can sleepwalk and still probably score 30, even if they are flat off a bad loss and a short week.

Two trends do work in Atlanta’s favor. Teams are 44-31 ATS as favorites trying to avenge a divisional loss as dogs since 2008. Also, teams are 41-27 ATS trying to avenge a divisional loss of 3 or fewer. This won’t be a very big bet, but I love betting against Tampa Bay right now so I’m going with Atlanta for a couple of units.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against spread: Baltimore -1.5 (-115) 4 units (+400)

The Ravens may seem like a huge enigma and from the outside they may be, but they are in 3 situations this week that they’ve been very good in this season. As underdogs of favorites of less than 5.5 this season, they are 5-1 ATS. They’ve struggled ATS against much inferior opponents, but they’ve played well against good teams. Going off of that, they’re 6-1 ATS against teams with winning records.

They’re also 4-1 ATS in the division. It makes sense that they’d take divisional games more seriously. They need this win to secure a first round bye and the #2 seed so they’ll definitely be motivated, especially with Pittsburgh playing Cleveland and ready to take their #2 seed if they slip. I’m very confident that the Ravens can win here and against a very small line, I really like them this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Cleveland +7.5 (-125) 3 units (+300)

Ben Roethlisberger is expected to play through an ankle injury, but he could be limited. He played very poorly against San Francisco on MNF a couple weeks ago through an ankle injury as Pittsburgh lost 20-3. Now the Steelers go to Cleveland as 7.5 point favorites after having trouble putting away lesser teams all season.

They only beat Indy (in Indy) by 3, Jacksonville (at home) by 4, Kansas City (in Kansas City) by 4. Even a few weeks ago, they only beat Cleveland by 11 and that was after a late touchdown took it from 7-3 to 14-3. And for the most part, all of that happened when Ben Roethlisberger was healthy. Now he’s not and they’ve actually scored only 17 points in their last 2 games with him hurt combined, including only 14 at home for Cleveland. Now they go to Cleveland.

And if Ben Roethlisberger plays really well, he could be pulled in order to rest him. Charlie Batch is not a bad backup, but he’s not exactly Ben Roethlisberger. He had a solid game last week against St. Louis’ miserable secondary, but Cleveland actually has one of the better pass defenses in the league so if he comes in with a sizeable lead, there’s still a solid chance of a backdoor cover against this 7.5 point line. On top of that, Ben Roethlisberger is just 3-9 ATS in his career of 7+ point road favorites. I really love getting more than a touchdown with Cleveland here.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Seattle Seahawks 17 Survivor Pick 11-5 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN, TB, TEN, HOU)

Pick against spread: Arizona -2.5 (-105) 2 units (+200)

Both of these teams were eliminated from the playoffs last weekend, several weeks after most projected they would be eliminated. Now they play each other. Both teams could be flat after missing the playoffs last weekend, so really anything could happen, but with NFC West matchups, picking the home team ATS is normally the smart thing to do. NFC West home teams are 22-11 ATS since 2009 in divisional matchups. Adding to that, Seattle is a significantly worse road team (14-26 ATS) than home team (27-14 ATS) since 2007. One additional trend is that Arizona is trying to avenge a divisional loss of 3 or fewer, a situation teams are 41-27 ATS in since 2008, I’m taking Arizona for a couple.

Denver Broncos 16 Kansas City Chiefs 10

Pick against spread: Denver -3 (-125) 2 units (-250)

Tebow was awful last week, but it wasn’t just him. They couldn’t do anything on the ground. His receivers couldn’t catch. His line couldn’t block and his defense couldn’t stop anyone. The game plan was also overly conservative to a fault. This week, they get the Chiefs. Based on what he’s done this season, Tebow shouldn’t have much trouble winning (well, he could have trouble, but he’ll still win). The Chiefs suck and the Broncos have shown the ability to beat bad to average teams in conservative fashion. However, that’s what I said last week.

On top of that, the Broncos defense is banged up. Von Miller was playing like the defensive player of the year before a thumb injury, but he hasn’t been the same since. They’re also missing both of their starting safeties. Also, Kyle Orton plays for the Chiefs, so the Chiefs could have a strategic advantage in that Orton played for Denver just a few weeks ago.

Finally, a trend does work for the Chiefs because teams are 29-16 ATS as dogs trying to avenge a divisional loss as favorites since 2008. The Broncos are also the young team with all the pressure trying to make the playoffs, while the Chiefs have no pressure and have been playing better football under Romeo Crennel. All that said, I’m still taking the Broncos, especially since they did beat Kansas City in Kansas City earlier this season, but it’s not a very big bet.

San Diego Chargers 27 Oakland Raiders 21 Upset Pick (+130)

Pick against spread: San Diego +2.5 (-105) 4 units (+400)

Philip Rivers is 21-2 SU after week 14 (not including playoffs), 16-7 ATS and 4-1 ATS as dogs. The Chargers lost in this situation last week, but I actually still love them in this situation this week. Last week was a tougher game for them because they had to go all the way to Detroit, just like they lost when they went to Cincinnati last year. This week, they just have to go to Oakland and it’s their 2^nd straight road game.

Being in the 2^nd straight road game is a situation teams are 168-125 ATS in since 2008. Teams in that situation off a loss are 88-65 ATS since 2008 and teams in that situation off a loss in their 2^nd of 2 as road dogs are 55-37 ATS since 2008. The Chargers are also in a good situation because teams are 29-16 ATS as dogs trying to avenge a divisional loss as favorites since 2008. Finally, the Chargers have absolutely no pressure, which they love, while the Oakland need to win to make the playoffs.

Dallas Cowboys 31 New York Giants 28 Upset Pick (+150)

Pick against spread: Dallas +3 (-105) 3 units (-315)

These two teams met just a couple weeks ago. Dallas led by 12 late, but two late New York touchdowns, 1 two point conversion, a ball Miles Austin lost in the sun on a wide open touchdown, an iced kicker and a missed field goal later, New York won 37-34. That game was in Dallas and this one is in New York, but I still think Dallas has the advantage this week for several reasons.

For one, the pressure is off Dallas. New York is the home team, the favorite, the one who is supposed to win, while Dallas is the underdog with a quarterback with an injured hand (more on that later). Both of these teams are awful down the stretch. New York is 47-17 SU under Tom Coughlin in the first half of the season and 26-37 SU under Coughlin in the 2^nd half of the season. Meanwhile, Dallas is 10-18 ATS from week 13 on, but 3-3 ATS as dogs, as opposed to 7-15 ATS as favorites.

Back to their previous matchup, it really did seem like Dallas outplayed New York. It took a bizarre sequence for New York to come back. Besides, Dallas’ loss to New York could actually help them here. Dogs trying to avenge a divisional loss as favorites are 29-16 ATS since 2008. Teams trying to avenge a divisional loss of 3 or fewer are 41-27 ATS since 2008, 23-11 ATS as dogs.

Finally, onto Romo’s hand. Romo’s hand might be banged up, but it’s not like Eli Manning is playing well either. Since his last matchup with Dallas, Manning is 32 for 67 for 482 yards, 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions and that includes a 99 yard touchdown by Victor Cruz that Manning barely had a part in. I think his recent struggles cancel out the impact of Romo’s hand injury, which is reportedly not going to be a huge factor. There was never any question whether or not he could play and only sat last week after the hit because the game last week was meaningless if they lost to New York here, which I don’t think they will.

LV Hilton Super Contest: Baltimore -2.5, San Diego +3, New England -11, NY Jets +2, Indianapolis +3.5