32(32). Indianapolis Colts 0-12

31(31). St. Louis Rams 2-10

30(30). Minnesota Vikings 2-10

29(29). Jacksonville Jaguars 3-9

28(24). Cleveland Browns 4-9

27(25). Washington Redskins 4-8

26(28). Carolina Panthers 4-8

25(19). Buffalo Bills 5-7

24(21). Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-8

23(27). Kansas City Chiefs 5-7

22(18). Philadelphia Eagles 4-8

21(29). Miami Dolphins 4-8

20(20). San Diego Chargers 5-7

19(22). Seattle Seahawks 5-7

18(23). Arizona Cardinals 5-7

17(16). New York Giants 6-6

 

16(13). Chicago Bears 7-5

15(15). Oakland Raiders 7-5

14(10). Dallas Cowboys 7-5

13(12). Detroit Lions 7-5

12(17). Tennessee Titans 7-5

11(8). Cincinnati Bengals 7-5

10(11). New York Jets 7-5

9(14). Denver Broncos 7-5

8(7). Atlanta Falcons 7-5

7(9). Houston Texans 9-3

6(6). San Francisco 49ers 10-2

5(5). Baltimore Ravens 9-3

4(4). Pittsburgh Steelers 10-3

3(3). New Orleans Saints 9-3

2(2). New England Patriots 9-3

1(1). Green Bay Packers 12-0

 

Last week overall: 10-6

Last week ATS: 9-7 (+665/+7 units)

Overall picks: 122-70 (.635)

Upset Picks: 4-2 (+690/+7 units)

ATS Picks: 81-104-7 (-9235/-69 units)

Survivor picks: 11-2 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN)

Upset picks: 18-23 (+2300/+4 units) 

2010 Total: +6408

2010/2011 Total: -527

Pittsburgh Steelers 31 Cleveland Browns 6

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -14 (-105) 3 units (-315)

The Browns suck. Like they’re absolutely awful. Now they have to go on the road on Thursday Night and play the Steelers. Have fun with that. The Browns will be even more at a disadvantage this week on a short week. Thursday road teams are 5-11 ATS since 2010. Thursday home favorites are 26-11 ATS since 2002, 12-1 ATS as favorites of 7, 6-0 ATS as favorites of 10+.

Some might be worried about betting the Steelers as big favorites after how they’ve fared against Jacksonville, Kansas City, and Indianapolis this year, but I don’t think people should be worried. This is a divisional game and Big Ben always dominates these games. He’s 11-4 ATS as 7+ divisional favorites in his career and 30-18 ATS in divisional games in general in his career. On top of that, he always dominates from week 13 on, going 23-13 ATS after week 13 in his career.

The only reason this isn’t a huge bet is because the Steelers don’t exactly have a “blow out” offense and they have struggled with inferior teams in the past this season, but I think their history against crappy divisional teams should quell those concerns. On top of that, divisional dogs of 6+ are 17-8 ATS after being divisional dogs of 6+, but the Browns didn’t cover in this situation last week. They’re just absolutely awful and this game has blowout written all over it. I’m putting 3 units on this, which is rare for me to do with double digit favorites.

Baltimore Ravens 20 Indianapolis Colts 13

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +16.5 (-110) 3 units (+300)

The Ravens have lost to the Titans, Jaguars, and Seahawks, and barely beat the Cardinals. They blew out the Browns last week, but I’m not sure they’re “cured.” I still like betting against them as they play a bad team because this matchup isn’t divisional, like their matchup was last week. The line is also much bigger.

On top of that, there are some situations to back up the Colts. The Colts are in their 2^nd straight game on the road. Teams in this situation are 159-122 ATS since 2008, 77-53 ATS in their 2^nd straight as dogs, 51-35 ATS in their 2^nd straight as dogs off a loss. Teams in their 2^nd of 2 as road dogs are 14-6 ATS since 2002 off a loss, 4-1 ATS off a loss and a cover.

Besides, Dan Orlovsky has proved that he can at least get a garbage time cover against a huge line. Curtis Painter couldn’t even do that. The Ravens don’t have an explosive offense or anything so I do like Orlovsky’s chances of covering as huge dogs, especially given the Ravens’ tendencies to play down to the level of their opponents, and especially given the trends in Indianapolis’ favor.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against spread: Atlanta -2.5 (-120) 2 units (+200)

This is a rematch and with all rematches, I like look at their first meeting to see if I can get any insight from that game. The Falcons beat the Panthers 31-17 in Atlanta earlier this season, but the Panthers actually led going into the 4^th quarter and the yardage totals were even so it’s not like the Panthers got dominated. And that was in Atlanta. This one is in Carolina, so I do like Carolina’s chances.

That being said, some trends do support Atlanta here. They’re in their 2^nd of 2 as road dogs, a situation teams are 159-122 ATS in since 2008, 28-17 ATS in their 2^nd straight as road favorites, 60-45 ATS in their 2^nd straight as road favorites since 2002. Besides, Mike Smith is awesome off a loss as the Head Coach of the Atlanta Falcons. He’s a whopping 15-3 ATS after a loss, 5-0 ATS after a loss as a favorite since he took over in 2008.

This isn’t going to be a huge bet because the Falcons struggle on the road and because their last matchup was actually pretty even, save for a couple of turnovers. However, I expect the Falcons to be extra focused for a divisional matchup here off of a loss and in a playoff game. Besides, the Panthers always seem to turn the ball over. They haven’t beaten anyone as good as the Falcons yet and I don’t think they can.

Houston Texans 17 Cincinnati Bengals 16 Upset Pick (+125)

Pick against spread: Houston +3 (-120) 2 units (+200)

Can you imagine how good the Texans could be if they were healthy? Mario Williams has missed most of the season. Andre Johnson has effectively done the same now that he’s out again with another hamstring injury. Matt Schaub is done for the season, as is backup Matt Leinart. Arian Foster also missed time.

And yet, they’re 9-3 and on a 5 game winning streak. They still have an awesome defense led by young pass rushers like JJ Watt, Connor Barwin, and Brooks Reed. They also run the ball very well with Arian Foster and Ben Tate behind an awesome offensive line. They’re now 2-0 even without Matt Schaub, beating the Jaguars and the Falcons. The Jaguars might suck, but the Falcons certainly don’t. Last week was incredibly impressive. As long as TJ Yates doesn’t try to do too much, they’ll be fine.

Of course, it’ll hurt Yates that he’s missing Andre Johnson, but Cincinnati is banged up too, missing Leon Hall for the season. They haven’t covered without him, going 0-4 ATS, 1-3 straight up, with that one win in a comeback effort against the lowly Browns. This line is trying to convince me these two teams are equal, but I’m not buying it. Besides, Marvin Lewis and the Bengals have sucked as favorites since 2007, going 9-17 ATS, 5-12 ATS as home favorites.

Once again, this isn’t a huge bet because I haven’t seen enough from TJ Yates to know he won’t shit the bed, but the Texans are a better team than the reeling Bengals. They should be able to establish their game plan, run the football, play defense, protect the quarterback, and don’t make mistakes, en route to another win. The Bengals suck as favorites and might see this as a rest game with TJ Yates coming to town without Andre Johnson after the Bengals just played 4 straight divisional contests.

Detroit Lions 24 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against spread: Minnesota +10 (-105) 3 units (+300)

Adrian Peterson is expected to go in this one after a limited practice this week, which will help Minnesota’s offense, but it’s now looking like it could be Joe Webb at quarterback for Minnesota. Christian Ponder is hurt and won’t go if he doesn’t practice Friday and might be a game time decision even if he does practice Friday. With Donovan McNabb being cut, Minnesota would turn to Joe Webb in case Ponder can’t play. That’s obviously a downgrade at quarterback for Minnesota. Webb flashed on occasion last season as a starter, but he overall wasn’t very good. There’s a reason he was 3^rd string just a week or so ago.

As for the Lions, they are really not playing good football right now. Since starting 5-0, they’re just 2-5 straight up, 2-5 ATS, with wins over Denver (before they installed their new Tebow friendly offense) and Carolina, who dominated early in that game before playing a big lead. Even when they were 5-0, they weren’t that impressive, needing comebacks to beat both Dallas and these Vikings and not impressive in a double digit win over the Bears on MNF, back when the Bears were 2-3. The Lions don’t really seem to be deserving of being 10 point favorites over anyone.

Speaking of Detroit’s first game against Minnesota, Detroit needed to come back from a 20-0 halftime deficit to win that one 26-23 in overtime. That was hardly an impressive performance and Minnesota has a better quarterback now with Christian Ponder. Meanwhile, the Lions have gone south. That works in Minnesota’s favor as they travel to Detroit as double digit dogs. Also, since that was an overtime loss for Minnesota, that works in Minnesota favor here. Since 2008, teams are 12-5 ATS in a divisional rematch of an overtime loss.

Now let’s go back to that Carolina game. I made Carolina one of my picks of the week that week because all of the trends went against Detroit. One of those trends that was in play that week, the most powerful, is in play here again. Favorites before being dogs (Detroit goes to Oakland next week) and after losing as dogs are 47-74 ATS since 2008.

This is a divisional game, but that trend still affects Detroit somewhat. In divisional games, teams are 19-25 ATS in that situation since 2008, 41-58 ATS since 2002. It’s not quite as powerful, but it’s still prevalent. I know Detroit covered in this situation earlier this season, but they were down big early in that game and have gone even farther downhill since then, losing Ndamukong Suh to injury and losing two games in embarrassing fashion.

This won’t be a big bet on Minnesota because they could be starting Joe Webb, but I don’t think Detroit has any business being double digit favorites over anyone, especially a divisional opponent they almost lost to earlier this season when situations were more in their favor that they were here. Detroit could also be caught looking forward to Oakland last week and reeling off their loss last week.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 13 Survivor Pick 11-2 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN)

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay -2 (-110) 3 units (-330)

Jacksonville is terrible. They made the Chargers look awesome last weekend in a 38-14 loss. They’ve been awful all season, but two things have made them more awful and I don’t think this line takes this into account. For one, both of their cornerbacks are in IR and they don’t have the depth to compensate. Philip Rivers lit them up last week after an awful season so far. The 2^nd thing was their coach, Jack Del Rio, getting fired. They know their season is over. That’s incredibly demoralizing.

With all of their injuries on defense, it’s up to the offense to keep up. Blaine Gabbert looked half passable against San Diego last week, but that’s because San Diego’s secondary sucks. Tampa Bay’s isn’t much better, but the Jaguars still only scored 14 points last week. Remarkably, they’ve only scored more than 16 points once this season (20 in a 30-20 loss to Cincinnati). Given their injuries on defense, I can’t see them being competitive in this one with that offense. This game could look a lot like last week’s did.

Speaking of last week’s, Jacksonville is coming off a MNF loss of 21+. Teams in this situation are 12-23 ATS since 2002. The Jaguars never get up for non-divisional games anyway as they are a dreadful 12-26 ATS outside of the division since 2008. That’s awful. Tampa Bay is coming off a bad loss last week, losing by 19 as favorites to Carolina, but Josh Freeman will be back for this one which helps.

Tampa Bay is 11-1 SU against under .500 teams with Josh Freeman at quarterback in the past 2 seasons. On top of that, teams that lose by 21+ ATS are 65-48 ATS the next week, 26-15 ATS as favorites. Finally, the Buccaneers are better on the road under Raheem Morris than at home. They are 14-6 ATS on the road, as opposed to 6-17 ATS on the road. I really like Tampa Bay here.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Miami Dolphins 17 Upset Pick (+135)

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +3 (-110) 4 units (+400)

So much for the Dream Team. The season is over for the Eagles at 4-8 after a brutal loss to the Seahawks on national TV last week that had many calling for Andy Reid’s job. Vince Young threw 4 interceptions (including a late pick six that made me lose my bet on the under!), DeSean Jackson closed off from his teammates and then blew up at reporters (and rightfully so), and Andy Reid’s hot seat is now on fire.

Call me crazy, but I love the Eagles in this situation. This is a talented team, but they had so much pressure on them since the beginning of the season that they just cracked under it. Now they have no pressure at all. Their season is over. They can just play football. They’ve had 10 days to clear their head since that loss.

Teams are normally better after a Thursday game, going 40-30 ATS since 2008 in that situation, but the Eagles should benefit even more. They have time to calm down and now the pressure is off. Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin will be back. That will help. DeSean Jackson is pissed, but he’s also playing for a contract. He still has reason to work his ass off. Andy Reid is also coaching for his job and there are still some in that locker room that really support the veteran coach.

On top of this, I have a lot of trends to support my stance. Andy Reid is awesome as an underdog, going 44-29 ATS in this situation in his career, 27-14 ATS as a dog of 3+. He’s also 6-3 ATS as dogs after losing as favorites. The Eagles are in their 2^nd of two road games. Andy Reid is 20-11 ATS in this situation as Head Coach of the Eagles and teams in general are 159-122 ATS in their 2^nd straight road game since 2008, 61-39 ATS as dogs off a loss, 9-3 ATS as dogs off a loss as favorites since 2002.

Besides, the Dolphins struggle at home and as favorites. They’ve covered 3 times this season in this very situation, but it’s still a somewhat useful trend to note. As opposed to 20-10 ATS on the road, the Dolphins are just 10-21 ATS at home under Sparano. As favorites, they are 6-13 ATS under Sparano, as opposed to 21-17 ATS as dogs. Put those together and you find out that the Dolphins are 5-10 ATS as home favorites under Sparano. That’s not the main reason why the Eagles are my pick of the week, but it certainly helps.

 

New York Jets 17 Kansas City Chiefs 10

Pick against spread: Kansas City +9 (-110) 2 units (-220)

It’s either Tyler Palko or an injured Kyle Orton who probably doesn’t completely have a grasp of the offense yet this week for the Chiefs. Have fun with that Chiefs fans. However, I still like the Chiefs this week and no I’m not crazy. The Chiefs are 2-0 ATS in their last 2 weeks. Matt Cassel sucked, but Vegas always overrated him. Now they’re underrating the Chiefs.

The Chiefs actually have a solid defense and have covered in their past 2 weeks in situations similar to this one, as large dogs against teams that struggle to move the football. I don’t expect this to be a very high scoring one, so I like the Chiefs chances to cover as 9 point dogs, just like I did last week when they were 9 point dogs in Chicago. They won last week.

Besides, the Chiefs are in their 2^nd straight road game.  Teams are 159-122 ATS in their 2^nd straight road game since 2008, 8-3 ATS in their 2^nd straight of 7+ dogs after a win since 2002. The Chiefs won in Chicago as big dogs last week, but are still being underrated here in New York. They have a good enough defense to hold Mark Sanchez and company to a low total and that should allow them to keep this one within 9 and cover.

I’m not crazy confident in this because there aren’t a lot of trends to support it and because the Chiefs have been frequently blown out in the past 2 years and because they’re playing the Packers next week and teams are 3-9 ATS before playing the Packers this season, but I’ll put a couple units on the Chiefs just like I did last week and for similar reasons.

Tennessee Titans 27 New Orleans Saints 24 Upset Pick (+175)

Pick against spread: Tennessee +3.5 (-105) 3 units (-315)

When the Saints were 15 point road favorites in St. Louis, I desperately wanted to bet on the Rams because of how bad the Saints have been on the road, but I didn’t because the Rams were so awful. The Rams won. Won! Ever since then, I’ve been sure to note how terrible the Saints are on the road. They’re 5-10 ATS on the road since 2010, but that doesn’t even go deep enough into it.

They won by 3 in San Francisco (6-10), lost by 10 in Arizona (5-11), beat Tampa Bay by 25 (10-6), beat Carolina by 31 (2-14), beat Dallas by 3 (6-10), beat Cincinnati by 4 (4-12), lost to Baltimore by 6 (12-4), beat Atlanta by 3 (13-3), lost to Seattle by 5 (7-9), lost to Green Bay by 8 (12-0), beat Jacksonville by 13 (3-9), beat Carolina by 3 (4-8), lost to Tampa Bay by 6 (4-8), lost to St. Louis by 10 (2-10), beat Atlanta by 3 (7-5). Other than in the division, they’ve been absolutely awful on the road in the past 2 years, going 1-8 ATS and 4-5 SU, losing to much worse teams than Tennessee.

Tennessee is quietly playing good football. Their defense has gotten better as the season has gone on and Chris Johnson finally looks like Chris Johnson again. I know he’s been beating up on bad run defenses in the past few weeks, but the Saints are near the bottom of the barrel in run defense so Chris Johnson should have another big game and as long as he does that, I think the Titans have a good chance to win here.

As I said earlier, the Saints have lost to worse teams on the road and this game means more to the Titans. The Saints are 2 up in their division and the Titans are 2 back and eliminated (from the division race) with a loss. Even if the Titans don’t win, I still have 3.5 points to play with, so I’m taking Tennessee for one of my bigger picks of a crappy week of games to pick from.

New England Patriots 34 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against spread: New England -9 (+100) 2 units (-200)

The Patriots offense is rolling once more, scoring 30+ in their last 4 on their 4 game winning streak, scoring 140 points total and they could have scored more if they didn’t take Brady out with a 31-3 lead last week. They seem to have hit their stride just like they did late last season when they rolled off a bunch of 30+ point performances with Brady not turning the ball over (10-0 TD-INT in past 4) after a disappointing loss to Cleveland (this year, it was a loss to the Giants). They should get 30 here again with ease.

The question then becomes, can the Redskins score enough to cover? The Colts did last week, but that was only because the Patriots took Brady out and kept giving the Colts the ball against a Patriots defense that was slacking off with a big lead. Rex Grossman could get the backdoor cover here, but I really don’t think we’ll see Belichick take his foot off the gas two weeks in a row. That’s just not like him, especially as the Patriots try to gain momentum going into the playoffs.

Speaking of the Patriots allowing the Colts to come back last week, that made the final score 31-24. Teams that allow 21+ and still win are 147-100 ATS the next week since 2008, 94-57 ATS as favorites, 67-45 ATS as favorites after being favorites. The Patriots are in this situation and should cover for that reason, but this isn’t a big bet because the Patriots are huge road favorites and they do have the kind of defense that could allow a backdoor cover to someone like Rex Grossman, who has been inconsistent this season.

Denver Broncos 20 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against spread: Denver -3.5 (-105) 2 units (-210)

The Broncos have been my pick of the week for the past few weeks and I’ve made 25 units on them since Tebow took over, betting them every time (6-1 ATS). So will they be my pick of the week again this week? Not so fast. They’re not underdogs here. I like betting Tebow as an underdog because all he does is win, but this is a 3.5 point line here. The Broncos play a lot of close games and have had 3 of their 6 wins under Tebow come by 3, with another by 4.

Still that being said, I’m not betting against Tebow here. He still is underrated by Vegas. I’m supposed to believe that the surging Broncos are equals with the Bears with Caleb Hanie and Marion Barber? The Bears lost to the Chiefs last week, and overall haven’t been scoring a lot of points lately. That will allow the Broncos to execute their game plan, though they proved last week they can win a shootout too. That shouldn’t be necessary this week because of the Bears’ offensive challenges. Besides, my Defensive Player of the Year pick (Von Miller) is back for the Broncos so the Bears won’t put up 32 like the Vikings did.

Some trends work against the Broncos. Home favorites before being home dogs are 13-25 ATS since 2008 and the Broncos have the Patriots coming to town next week in what could be the game of the season (how will Tebow do against an elite offense?). On top of that, Lovie Smith is 4-1 ATS as a dog after losing as favorites. The Bears are in that situation after losing to the Chiefs last week. However, I’m not betting against Tebow, especially with still a pretty small line. It’s just a smaller bet this week.

San Francisco 49ers 19 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: San Francisco -3.5 (-110) 2 units (-220)

This is another rematch of a 23-7 game in which the 49ers won a few weeks ago. I picked the Cardinals (to cover) in that one because the 49ers had struggled to put away teams of late and because the 49ers could be caught looking forward to the Ravens the week after. The 49ers do play the Steelers next week, so they could be caught looking forward to that, but the line isn’t as big here. The 49ers shouldn’t have any problem beating an Arizona team that doesn’t have a very good offense by 4 in a conservative game.

The reasons this isn’t a bigger bet is because the 49ers will be missing Patrick Willis and you never know how big of a loss that could be for them. Also the Cardinals do have Kevin Kolb back and he’s not quite as bad as John Skelton, who started last time. Also, I don’t have any trends to support this pick and the Cardinals have been playing good football of late (5-1 ATS in their last 6). However, I don’t think the 49ers should have that much trouble beating the Cardinals by 4+.

 

Green Bay Packers 31 Oakland Raiders 24

Pick against spread: Oakland +11 (-110) 2 units (-220)

The Packers are 12-0 after beating the Giants, the last team on their schedule that anyone thought actually had a chance to beat them. Now they’re expected to cruise to 16-0, unless they rest their starters, which it doesn’t look like they’re going to. However, that could mean they could become complacent and the Raiders aren’t a bad team. They’re 7-5, which is actually a better record than the Giants. Besides, this has been a weird season. Wouldn’t an Oakland win here just make sense with all that’s happened this year?

I’m not picking Oakland to win, I’m just saying. Given that, they should have a decent shot to cover as 11 point underdogs. I do have some trends to support this on top of just the sheer fact that Green Bay could become complacent. First I’ll start with a trend that supports the Packers. Teams that allow 21+ and still win are 147-100 ATS the next week since 2008, 94-57 ATS as favorites, 67-45 ATS as favorites after being favorites.

Now for trends that support Oakland. Aaron Rodgers has been awesome since 2009, going 31-16 ATS, but he’s only 7-5 ATS as 10+ dogs so it’s not completely farfetched that Oakland could cover. On top of that, Oakland is in their 2^nd straight road game. Teams are 159-122 ATS in their 2^nd straight road game since 2008, 61-39 ATS as dogs off a loss.

I’m not making this a huge bet or anything, because Aaron Rodgers is awesome. As I said earlier, he’s 31-16 ATS in the last 3 years. That’s insane. However, the Packers could become complacent after a huge, close, road win last week and not take the Raiders seriously and the Raiders deserve to be taken pretty seriously. The Raiders also have a good trend in their favor and the Packers don’t have a very good defense so there’s always a chance for a backdoor cover with Carson Palmer in a high scoring game.

San Diego Chargers 31 Buffalo Bills 27

Pick against spread: Buffalo +7 (-115) 2 units (-230)

After the Chargers beat the Jaguars last week on MNF, NFL.com posted something on Facebook asking if the Chargers were back in the playoff race? Yeah…no. They’re still 5-7 and 2 back of 2 teams they’ve lost to recently. Besides, it’s not that impressive to beat the 3-9 Jaguars who had recently fired their coach, especially considering the Jaguars were missing their top 2 cornerbacks. And the Chargers defense was so bad that made Blaine Gabbert look passable for at least a half. Ryan Fitzpatrick is much better than Gabbert so he has a good chance of keeping this one within 7 points.

Normally I side with a team coming off a huge MNF win as teams are 25-11 ATS off a 21+ MNF win since 2002, but I’m going against that trend this week for good reasons. However, that trend is very prevalent and powerful so this won’t be a huge bet. That said, the Chargers are also home favorites before being home dogs with Baltimore coming to town next week. Teams are 13-25 ATS in that situation since 2008. Besides, given the Chargers’ remaining schedule (Buffalo, Baltimore, Detroit, Oakland), they could finish 6-10 or worse. Teams that do that are a mere 22-61 ATS since 2002 as favorites of 6+.

The Bills are on a 5 game losing streak and they’ve suffered too many injuries for me to pick them here on the road to win after traveling 3 time zones, but I think they can keep this within 7 points. Ryan Fitzpatrick is still a solid quarterback and the Chargers have an awful pass defense and two powerful trends work against San Diego. This would be a bigger bet, but I hate picking teams on long losing streaks and picking against teams off a huge MNF win.

New York Giants 27 Dallas Cowboys 24 Upset Pick (+160)

Pick against spread: NY Giants +3.5 (-115) 2 units (+200)

Both of these teams normally struggle late in the season. The Giants are 24-36 straight up in the 2^nd half of the season, as opposed to 47-17 in the first half, under Tom Coughlin. Meanwhile, from week 13 on, Tony Romo is 9-16 ATS, 6-13 ATS as favorites. That makes me very uncomfortable about betting on either side, but I’m siding with the Giants.

The Giants actually looked good last week, while the Cowboys have really struggled for weeks. They almost lost to Washington and Miami and then did lose to Arizona. Besides, I just trust Eli Manning in a key game more than Romo, especially in December. On top of that, Romo is just 3-6 ATS in his career against the Giants and the Cowboys could be flat after a road overtime loss. Teams coming off a road overtime loss are 27-44 ATS since 2002. That being said, I don’t trust either of these teams.

Seattle Seahawks 24 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -9.5 (-115) 1 unit (+100)

The Seahawks are a great home team, especially since 2007. At home since then, they’re 26-14 ATS, as opposed to 13-26 ATS on the road. The Rams, meanwhile, haven’t played well on the road lately, as has been the case with most NFC West teams. Discounting the 2011 49ers, NFC West teams are just 19-32 ATS on the road since 2010 and 11-20 ATS on the road within the division since 2009.

Seattle is also coming off a win on Thursday Night Football. Teams coming off a Thursday Night game are 40-30 ATS since 2008. The Seahawks are also in a rare situation in their 2^nd straight home game after a Thursday Night Game. Not only do they have extra rest, but they’ve been at home this whole time. Teams are 3-1 ATS in this situation since 2008 (you can see how rare it is), 8-3 ATS since 2002, and 21-11 ATS since 1989. Since this is a Monday Night game, the Seahawks have that much extra rest to prepare for this one.

Those trends are all powerful, however, I don’t really like picking the Seahawks as 9.5 favorites over anyone, even at home. Besides, the Rams have some trends in their favor. Teams are 159-122 ATS in their 2^nd straight road game since 2008, 61-39 ATS as dogs off a loss, 77-53 ATS in their 2^nd straight as dogs, and 51-35 ATS in their 2^nd straight as dogs off a loss. That being said, I don’t want any part of Tom Brandstater, who will be starting for the already offensive challenged Rams here. The trends in the Seahawks favor seem a little bit more powerful, especially since Seattle’s home crowd could be extra charged for a divisional MNF game. I don’t love either side, but I’m taking the Seahawks for 1.

LV Hilton: Philadelphia +3, Tennessee +3.5, Pittsburgh -14, Indianapolis +16.5, Tampa Bay PK (29-35-1)

 

 

32(32). Indianapolis Colts 0-11

Curtis Painter has been benched for Dan Orlovsky. Starting with the 62-7 game in New Orleans, Painter has gone 76 of 141 (53.9%) for 735 yards (5.2 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in 5 games. Meanwhile, Dan Orlovsky has the chance to become the first quarterback in NFL history to make at least one start for two separate 0-16 teams. Orlovsky is 0-8 in his career and hasn’t won as a starter since the 2004 Motor City Bowl at UCONN. He’s also the guy who hilariously ran out of the back of his end zone for a touchdown. And for the record, I think the 2011 Colts are the worst team ever and I say this with the memory of the 0-16 2008 Lions and the 1-15 2007 Dolphins fresh in my mind.

31(30). St. Louis Rams 2-9

After one season of being at least decent, the Rams are back to being terrible and look poised for a 4th top 3 pick in 5 years. If you take out their 7-9 record last year, the Rams are 8-51 straight up since the start of the 2007 season. It’s tough to explain how Sam Bradford, who set all sorts of rookie passing record last year, has just thrown 6 touchdowns in 9 games as a sophomore and can’t beat either Seattle or Arizona at home. Pass protection is obviously their biggest problem, as they’ve allowed a league high 39 sacks, and they’ll have to fix their offensive line in the offseason. The rest, they just have to hope can be chalked up to a sophomore slump and fixed on its own by next season. They have some interesting parts on this team. Maybe they just need to hit the reset button and put it all together in 2012.

30(27). Minnesota Vikings 2-9

The Vikings offense really struggles without Adrian Peterson as they managed just 226 total yards in Atlanta last week and now they have to deal with the Broncos, who surprisingly don’t rank among the league’s bottom in yards allowed, ranking 18^th and getting better every week. Toby Gerhart managed just 46 yards on 18 carries last week, though he saved his fantasy day by scoring a touchdown, and overall raised questions about just how he managed the finish 2^nd in the Heisman race in 2009.

29(29). Miami Dolphins 3-8

Matt Moore has looked good over his last 4 games, going 70 of 104 (67.3%) for 901 yards (8.7 YPA), and 7 touchdowns to 1 interception. However, Dolphins fans should be really skeptical. Moore has done this before, leading the Panthers to a 4-1 finish in 2009 before stinking up the joint early in 2010 and 2011. He’s not consistent enough to be a good NFL quarterback and Dolphin fans should really be rooting against him at this point. If the Dolphins win too many games or Moore plays too well, Moore will be their starting quarterback in 2012 and it’ll set the franchise back another year. You can’t win a Super Bowl or go deep into the playoffs with him. You at least have a chance with someone like Robert Griffin or Matt Barkley or maybe even Landry Jones.

28(28). Carolina Panthers 3-8

Yikes this Panthers defense is bad! Curtis Painter looked decent against them and almost led a game winning drive. Painter went 15 of 29 for 226 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. They rank dead last in YPA allowed with 8.4. They also rank 26^th against the run, allowing 4.8 yards per carry, 24^th in total yards with 4107 yards allowed, and 31^st in points allowed with 27.7 per game. Cam Newton wants to take all the blame on himself and I applaud him for that, it’s not his fault. Yes, he has had problems with turnovers, 14 interceptions, but his play is the only reason they’ve won any games. If they can build their defense through the draft and Newton matures on schedule, they do have a bright future.

27(26). Kansas City Chiefs 4-7

Tyler Palko has thrown 6 interceptions to 0 touchdowns and despite a completion percentage of 65.3%, he is averaging just 6.3 YPA. In comes the Chiefs savior…Kyle Orton. Ok, maybe not, but he should be better than Palko. The problem is, with all of their remaining games against teams with winning records (Chicago, Green Bay, NY Jets, Denver, Oakland), they’re at best a 5 win team this season. They’re not making the playoffs, so I don’t understand the point of Kyle Orton. Why not see if rookie 5^th rounder Ricky Stanzi has anything?

26(24). Jacksonville Jaguars 3-8

The Jaguars have fired their Head Coach Jack Del Rio, albeit 3 years late. Seriously, how was this idiot the 3^rd longest tenured coach in the NFL after Andy Reid and Bill Belichick (tied with Marvin Lewis, who also took over in Cincinnati in 2003). The Jaguars were also sold this week, which raises more questions about the possibility of being moved to LA. I don’t think the Jaguars have been this newsworthy in…ever. On top of that, they have a home MNF game against the Chargers this week. Who the hell gave the Jaguars 2 home MNF games this season?! He should be fired and not in 3 years, now.

25(31). Washington Redskins 4-7

Rex Grossman is like New England weather. You can’t possibly predict it, but most of the time it sucks. Grossman has more interceptions than touchdowns on the season with 14 picks to 10 touchdowns and more interceptions than touchdowns in his career, his 54 to 50, along with a mere 55.5% completion percentage and a 6.6 YPA. But, he’s had his moments this year, including last week, winning in Seattle, where New Orleans and Baltimore have lost in the past 2 years and Atlanta almost did. Of course that probably means he’ll be terrible this week, but what do I know. I can’t predict this type of thing. He’s better than John Beck, though, I’ll give him that.

24(23). Cleveland Browns 4-7

The Browns haven’t been awful in the past 3 weeks since their awful showing in Cleveland. They could easily be 3-0 in their last 3, though in typical Browns fashion, they are 1-2, losing 2 games by a combined 4 points, blowing a 10 point 4^th quarter lead in one and missing a chip shot field goal for the win in the other. Maybe this video had something to do with their suddenly less shitty play. Also good news, Peyton Hillis is back. This is good because he’s not Chris Ogbonnaya.

23(25). Arizona Cardinals 4-7

Kevin Kolb is expected back this week for the Cardinals, which is interesting. Kolb has a 1-6 record this season, while his backup John Skelton went 3-1. Skelton didn’t play particularly well, completing 50.4% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA, and 4 touchdowns to 7 picks, but he won and he did this last season too, going 2-2 for a crappy 5-11 team in 4 starts, despite completing less than 50% of his passes. Kevin Kolb is a better statistical player than Kolb, so one would think they’d improve with him in the lineup, but I don’t know. One thing I do know, if you give someone 63 million dollars, you don’t it to be a legitimate discussion whether to start him or John Skelton.

22(22). Seattle Seahawks 4-7

The Seahawks lost at home to Rex Grossman and the Redskins, who were previously on a 6 game losing streak, but they get the Eagles this week, who will be flat this week off essentially a season ending loss to the Patriots, especially since they have to travel on 3 days rest. Other than the 49ers, this is somehow the best team in the division and they should finish with about 6 or 7 wins.

21(20). Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-7

This has to be heartbreaking for the Buccaneers. They play a good game in Green Bay and still lose and then blow a 17-10 lead to the Titans in Tennessee, allowing 13 4^th quarter points and turning the ball over on their last 2 drives. Now at 4-7, they’re out of the playoff race essentially. They had high expectations coming into the season and actually led the division at 4-2 following a win over the Saints, but they haven’t won since. I don’t know if I like their chances to change that this week against Carolina.

20(19). San Diego Chargers 4-7

The Chargers are a bunch of losers. They’re not bad, they’re just losers. There’s no other way to put it. Their game against the Broncos was so predictable. They looked better than the Broncos, but they still lost in overtime. Meanwhile, the Broncos and Tebow are a bunch of winners. The Chargers have lost 6 straight and are effectively out of the playoff race now at 4-7. Even their wins haven’t been that impressive, beating the Donovan McNabb Vikings, the Kyle Orton Broncos, the Chiefs, who got revenge, and the Chad Henne Dolphins and none of those wins were by more than 10 points.

On top of that, they even have players peeing on the sidelines. If dropping down on one knee in crunch time is “Tebowing”, is taking a piss on live TV in crunch time “Novaking.” Even funnier, Novak missed two field goals that could have won the game. I guess he just pissed the game away.

19(21). Buffalo Bills 5-6

I have no problem with Steve Johnson mocking Plaxico Burress by pretending to shoot himself in the leg after scoring a touchdown. What kind of world would this be if we couldn’t make fun of idiots? The “holier than thou” Bob Costas might have had a problem with it, but that’s because he’s a dick. If Plaxico Burress had a problem with it, he could just make fun of him by pretending to drop a game winning touchdown in his next touchdown celebration because Johnson has done that in each of the last two years.

18(16). Philadelphia Eagles 4-7

The “Dream Team’s” nightmare season is officially over. At 4-7, the Eagles are essentially out of it now after a loss to the Patriots, in heartbreaking fashion after getting out to an early 10-0 lead. DeSean Jackson had an especially bad game, dropping a couple of passes, including a touchdown. Jackson is having an awful year and I think we can blame the Eagles for that. They spent too much money on outsiders and didn’t resign him and that demotivated him. He’s a free agent after the season so I expect him to go elsewhere.

17(18). Tennessee Titans 6-5

The Titans aren’t particularly talented, but they sit at 6-5 somehow and could be in the playoff race until the very end. They don’t have a tough schedule the rest of the week because their division sucks. In fact, they’re the only team in the division who still has the same quarterback now that they had week 1. They have 3 divisional games left and this week go to Buffalo to play the reeling Bills. I still have teams like the Raiders, Broncos, Jets, and Bengals ahead of them, but they might not go away quietly.

 

16(14). New York Giants 6-5

Tom Coughlin said that if the Giants don’t miss the playoffs, it’ll be a historic collapse. I find this hilarious because they do this every year. I’ve been saying it all year. They always collapse in the 2^nd half. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, they are 47-17 in the first half of the season, good for a 73.4% winning percentage. In the 2^nd half, they are 24-35, a winning percentage of 40.9%. Now they have the defending champion Packers coming to town. Have fun with that.

15(17). Oakland Raiders 7-4

The Raiders are 7-4, their best start since their Super Bowl season. They haven’t had a very tough schedule, but they’re still a solid team. I have the Broncos ranked higher than them because all Tebow does is win and because the Broncos beat them in Raiders in Oakland, but there’s a possibility that both AFC West teams sneak into the playoffs.

14(15). Denver Broncos 6-5

With a 5-1 record, Tebow has a 83.3% winning percentage this season, the highest of all quarterbacks in the NFL who have made at least 5 games other than Aaron Rodgers himself. In the last two years, the Broncos are 6-3 with Tebow and 4-14 without him. And he’s competing less than 50% of his passes. Why can’t people just except that Tebow doesn’t make sense? Why can’t people just accept that a quarterback who is a below average passer can win in this league because he’s a great leader and motivated and can make things happen on the ground.

He’s opened up the ground game because opposing defenses are afraid of him. How else do you except Willis McGahee looking like a Pro Bowler? He’s motivated his teammates and gotten them all to play hard for him. He’s led a ball control offense that is keeping the defense fresh and the opposing offense off the field. That’s why the defense has been playing so much better lately (and Von Miller is a beast). He’s gotten better in the clutch and just willed this team to win. And he’s not a terrible passer. Remember, his top two receivers are Eric Decker and a running back converted into a slot receiver.

13(9). Chicago Bears 7-4

Isn’t Caleb Hanie supposed to be good? Or at least decent? I thought the Bears had a good enough running game and defense to be at least solid even without Jay Cutler, but Hanie played terrible against Oakland, who doesn’t even have that good of a defense. It’s looking like his performance against the Packers in the NFC Championship game last year was a fluke. Bears fans better hope the rumors that Cutler could return for the playoffs are true.

12(8). Detroit Lions 7-4

The Lions really just have the feel of an immature team. They made all sorts of stupid mistakes against the Packers and Ndamukong Suh got frustrated and stepped on an offensive lineman…er I mean tripped. They haven’t dealt with adversity well all season. After their first loss, Jim Schwartz blew up at Jim Harbaugh because his handshake was too rough. And of course, since their first loss, they’re just 2-4 with wins over the Broncos, before the new Tim Tebow friendly offense, and the Panthers, who led early. They’re going to get destroyed this week coming off a loss in their biggest game of the decade.

11(12). New York Jets 6-5

The Jets ended a two game losing streak last week, but hardly looked convincing in a 4 point win that easily could have been a loss against the lowly Bills. The Jets now sit at 6-5 and they really haven’t looked as good as they have in the past two years this year. They have an uphill battle to make the playoffs as Cincinnati is a game better than them, but they have the easier schedule on tap. The reeling Giants are their only remaining +.500 team and they also play Miami, Philadelphia, Kansas City, and Washington. It’s all just a matter of execution now.

10(13). Dallas Cowboys 7-4

With their Thanksgiving win over the Dolphins, Tony Romo is now 18-2 in his career in November. However, there is some room for concert. Tony Romo’s struggles in December are well documented and the Cowboys really didn’t look that great in wins over inferior teams, the Redskins and the Dolphins, needing game winning field goals to beat both. I’d still say they’re in better position, however, than the reeling Giants and with the Eagles out of it, it’s now a two horse race in the NFC East.

9(10). Houston Texans 8-3

I don’t think the Texans will be too much worse off with TJ Yates than they were with Matt Leinart. In fact, they might be better off. Unlike Leinart, Yates seemed interested and capable of throwing more than 5 yards downfield. Leinart went 12 of 16, but for a mere 57 yards. Yates was 8 of 15 for 70 yards. They have a good defense and a good running game so all Yates has to do is not overstep his boundaries and they’ll be at least decent. Besides, the scariest thing is a good team that doesn’t think anyone believes in them. The Texans are that team now.

8(11). Cincinnati Bengals 7-4

Were the Bengals just flat off of back to back divisional losses to Pittsburgh and Baltimore and looking forward to a rematch with Pittsburgh? Or are they simply not as good as they were before they lost Leon Hall? The Bengals had a very underwhelming performance at home against the Browns last week. A few weeks ago, that game wouldn’t have been very close. Last week, the Bengals needed to comeback from a 20-10 4^th quarter deficit. They have another test this week as they head to Pittsburgh.

7(7). Atlanta Falcons 7-4

The Falcons are quietly playing very good football of late. In fact, they seem to do everything quietly, but anyway. They’ve won 6 of their last 8 and their two losses were against the Saints and the Packers, both of which they led at either halftime or later. The level of competition in the NFL is really weak this year because of the lockout and because of injuries to guys like Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub, and Jay Cutler, all of whom would be the quarterbacks for competitive teams if they weren’t hurt. There aren’t that many good teams this year. The Falcons aren’t great, but they’re good enough to be a serious contender in a year like this.

6(3). San Francisco 49ers 9-2

The 49ers’ loss to the Ravens doesn’t help their case as one of the league’s elites, though it seems unfair that they had to travel 3 time zones to play a Thursday game against one of the best in the league. I think we’ll get a better feel of whether or not they’re for real after they play the Steelers, but I’m moving them down to 6^th, simply because I think all 5 of the teams ranked here above them could beat them. Their signature wins are against two, young, inexperienced 7 win teams, the Lions and the Bengals. Beating someone like the Steelers or the Ravens or any of the teams ranked higher than them here is another story completely.

5(6). Baltimore Ravens 8-3

The Ravens are below the Steelers even though they’ve beaten them head-to-head twice because the Ravens have lost to Tennessee, Jacksonville, Seattle and almost Arizona. Besides, I just trust Ben Roethlisberger more in the playoffs than Joe Flacco. Baltimore plays Cleveland this week. Let’s see if they play down to the level of the competition again.

4(5). Pittsburgh Steelers 8-3

Another reason I like the Steelers more than the Ravens that I didn’t mention under the Ravens thing (because I wanted to save something to write here), the Steelers were banged up on defense. They’ll be healthier in the playoffs, provided Troy Polamalu’s concussions aren’t a serious long term problem, though he could play this week. I think the Steelers would win a rematch, even if it was in Baltimore.

3(4). New Orleans Saints 8-3

I mentioned the Falcons were quietly playing well, the Saints are too. Remember, this team has been the only one even close to beating the Packers this season as they would have sent the opener to overtime had they converted 4^th and goal on the 1 and then converted the two point conversion. Their offense looked unstoppable against the Giants and as good as Brady and Rodgers are, Brees actually has more passing yards than them. Brady, Brees, and Rodgers are all on pace to break Dan Marino’s passing yards record. Those are clearly the best three quarterbacks in the league and as such, they are the top 3 teams in my Power Rankings as well. Also, all three have won Super Bowls.

2(2). New England Patriots 8-3

The Patriots have scored 109 points in their last 3 games and their defense has allowed just 18 per game starting with their week 4 game against the Raiders. Their defense isn’t even at full strength so you can expect them to play good defense the rest of the way and with this offense and their experience at quarterback and Head Coach, that’s a scary combination. The Packers have struggled with both the Chargers’ and the Saints’ offense so I think the Patriots do have a shot at beating the Packers in the Super Bowl. I also think the Packers could lose to the Saints in the NFC Championship game.

1(1). Green Bay Packers 11-0

But I won’t predict either of those things to happen. It’s hard not to put an undefeated 11-0 team in first when the next closest team record wise is a 9-2 team quarterbacked by Alex Smith. They’re the favorites until someone proves otherwise and the only way they can do that is by beating them. With a pretty easy schedule remaining, at New York, vs. Oakland, at Kansas City, vs. Chicago, vs. Detroit, the only way they don’t go undefeated is if they rest their starters, which they can do starting week 15 most likely. 

 

 

Last week overall: 11-5

Last week ATS: 7-9 (-920/-7 units)

Overall picks: 112-64 (.636)

Upset Picks: 1-3 (-80/-2 units)

ATS Picks: 72-97-7 (-9890/-76 units)

Survivor picks: 10-2 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ)

Upset picks: 18-23 (+1610/-3 units) 

2010 Total: +6408

2010/2011 Total: -1872

Seattle Seahawks 20 Philadelphia Eagles 13 Upset Pick (+130)

Pick against spread: Seattle Seahawks +2.5 (+105) 4 units (+420)

The Eagles season is over. Despite huge expectations and talks of being potentially the best team ever in the preseason, the Eagles are now 4-7 and effectively out of the playoff race, down 3 games to the Cowboys with 5 to go. On top of this, this happened in heartbreaking fashion. The Eagles led the Patriots 10-0 at one point, but still lost in blowout fashion 38-20. Now they have to fly across the country for a Thursday Night Game. There’s no way they give their all this week.

I’ve mentioned how bad road teams have been on Thursday Night Football over the past two years, 5-10 ATS. However, the Eagles are just the 2^nd team in the last 2 years to travel 3 time zones for a Thursday Night Game. The first was the San Francisco 49ers traveling to Baltimore last week and we all know how that ended. The 49ers looked completely flat. Now imagine the 49ers had been effectively eliminated the week before despite preseason Super Bowl and “Dream Team” expectations. That’s how flat the Eagles are going to look this week.

And the Eagles aren’t just traveling anywhere. They have to play in Seattle in Qwest Field. The Seahawks are 25-14 ATS at home since 2007, as opposed to 13-26 ATS on the road. They lost last week at home, but that shouldn’t hurt them. If anything, it helps them. Since 2002, the Seahawks are 17-9 ATS off a home loss, 6-1 ATS at home off of a home loss. The Seahawks have actually been playing sneaky good football since week 3, going 6-2-1 ATS and that includes a loss last week to the Redskins. They beat the Ravens at home a few weeks ago. I think they can easily beat a very flat Philadelphia team.

One last note, I’m putting a unit on the under, 44.5 (-115). The under has hit on 5 of 6 Thursday Night Games this season, including 5 straight. The one game it didn’t hit featured Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees in the opener. Even Aaron Rodgers and Matt Stafford took a while to get on the scoreboard last week. Offenses are just generally sluggish on Thursdays because they have had so little time to prepare. This trend actually does date back a bit. The under is 21-14 since 2008, but it seems to be more prevalent this season.

Tennessee Titans 21 Buffalo Bills 17 Upset Pick (+105) 2 units (+210)

Pick against spread: Tennessee +1 (+100) 0 units

The Bills started the season off 5-2, but now have lost 4 straight. They didn’t get blown out last week in New York against the Jets like they had in their previous 3, losing by a combined score of 106-26, but it was still a loss, a 4 point loss to a division rival in the Jets. Even more heartbreaking, they had a chance to win it on their final drive, but Steve Johnson dropped a catchable ball over the middle that he could have taken for a touchdown and then Johnson and Fitzpatrick were on the wrong page in the end zone on another incompletion. That loss dropped them to 5-6 and effectively ended their season. They’re going to have trouble getting up this week for the Titans.

On top of that, it’s not like they’re playing some team like the Patriots or the Packers who they would give 100% no matter what. The Titans aren’t terrible, but they’ll hardly elicit strong enough emotion from the Bills for a 100% effort from them. The Bills are favorites here before being underdogs (at San Diego) and after a loss as underdogs, as they did last week in New York. Excluding teams coming off a bye, teams are 41-62 ATS in this situation since 2008, though only 15-20 ATS as favorites of less than 3. Still, I don’t like the Bills’ chances here to give 100%.

Even if they did give 100%, I’m not sure they’d win this game. The Titans are a decent team and the Bills are really not playing good football right now. They’ve just lost too many key guys to injury, including center Eric Wood and nose tackle Kyle Williams. They haven’t been the same since losing those two. They’ve also lost Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller couldn’t do anything on the ground in his absence last week against the Jets.

The Bills have lost 4 straight and I wouldn’t bet on them to win here as favorites over a decent Tennessee team. I don’t necessarily love Tennessee because I don’t have any big situations to back them up, but I feel confident enough to put a couple units on the money line. I’m not putting any on the spread because it’s so small and I get better juice with the money line. 1 point games are rare.

Chicago Bears 16 Kansas City Chiefs 10

Pick against spread: Kansas City +7.5 (-120) 2 units (+200)

I thought the Bears would be okay without Jay Cutler. They had a good running game and defense and a quarterback who looked good in the NFC Championship game last year. I was wrong. It really looks like his NFC Championship game performance was a fluke as Caleb Hanie really struggled against the Raiders, who don’t have the best defense. He committed 3 turnovers and struggled to move the ball even though the Raiders were selling out on the run to stop Matt Forte. Forte was kept in check and the Bears defense, though they played well, were just on the field too much to win.

The Chiefs have similar quarterback issues as Tyler Palko is terrible, but their defense looked pretty good against Pittsburgh. I expect another good defensive performance from a solid defensive bunch against a struggling offense. I don’t love Kansas City or anything, but I’m not taking a bad quarterback against a solid defense -7.5. No way.

I do have some trends to back me up. Teams are 27-13 ATS after a loss as 10+ home dogs since 2002, 12-7 ATS after covering, but not winning. In this situation, they are 18-12 ATS when on the road in their next game. The Chiefs are in this situation after losing to the Steelers as double digit dogs at home last week.

Meanwhile, the Bears are favorites before being underdogs most likely (at Denver next week) and after losing as underdogs to the Raiders. This is called a sandwich game. Even if they aren’t underdogs next week, they deserve to be and there is a very good chance the Bears could overlook the lowly Chiefs with a trip to Tebow Town next on schedule. Favorites before being underdogs and after losing as underdogs are 41-62 ATS since 2008, excluding teams coming off of a bye, 26-42 ATS as favorites of more than 3, 11-16 ATS as favorites of more than 7.

As I said earlier, I don’t love Kansas City. They’ve been blown out a lot in the past 2 years. Despite a modest 14-14 record in their last two seasons (including playoffs), they have a whopping 8 losses by 20+ points, including losses to a Broncos team that finished 4-12 last season, and a Dolphins team that is currently 3-8. However, I like them enough in this situation to put a couple units on them to cover, but not win.

 

Atlanta Falcons 24 Houston Texans 17

Pick against spread: Atlanta -3 (+105) 1 unit (-100)

Poor Texans. They’ve lost another quarterback for the season. Matt Schaub went down before their bye and Matt Leinart went down during last week’s win over the Jaguars. People are wondering how the Texans can possibly survive without Leinart. I’ll tell you how. He was Matt Leinart. Matt Leinart isn’t good. I don’t know too much about TJ Yates, but at the very least, he’s not worse than Matt Leinart.

The rookie Yates was a 5^th round pick out of North Carolina of the Texans in April. He looked decent against the Jaguars, going 8 of 15 for 70 yards and closing out a 20-13 win over lowly division rival Jacksonville. In contrast to Matt Leinart, who went 12 of 16 for just 57 yards, Yates actually seemed interested and capable of throwing more than 5 yards downfield. As long as Yates doesn’t overstep his boundaries and allows the running game and defense to do their thing, the Texans won’t be any worse off with Yates than they were with Leinart.

Two things Leinart’s injury does is distort this line and allow the Texans to go into “nobody believes in us” mode. This line probably would have been Atlanta -1 with Leinart, yet shifts 2 points with Yates, which doesn’t make any sense because, as I said early, Yates isn’t worse than Leinart. We’re getting line value with Houston. Also, Houston should bring a high level of energy to make up for a backup quarterback starting. Nobody believes them right now and no one is more dangerous than a good team no one believes in. Atlanta could also overlook them.

All that being said, I’m taking Atlanta. I would have taken Atlanta even with Leinart in the lineup. I just think it’s one thing to beat Jacksonville with a mediocre/terrible quarterback. It’s another to beat a good team like Atlanta with a good quarterback. Atlanta is quietly playing good football of late, going 6-2 in their last 8, losing only to Green Bay and New Orleans and they had chances to win both of those games. They are on the road here, but they haven’t had too much trouble on the road on turf in the Mike Smith era, going 9-5 ATS in that situation. In total, including their home dome, they’re 28-16 ATS on turf under Mike Smith.

I would have picked Atlanta to beat Houston by about 7 regardless of whether TJ Yates or Matt Leinart made this start. However, I’m not betting heavily on Atlanta now that Yates is in the lineup. As I said early, we’re not getting any line value with Atlanta and the scariest thing in sports is a good team that feels no one believes in them. I’m putting 1 unit on Atlanta just because I think they win here and this line is still pretty small.

Oakland Raiders 27 Miami Dolphins 20 Upset Pick (+130)

Pick against spread: Oakland Raiders +2.5 (+105) 3 units (-300)

The Dolphins really haven’t looked too bad in their last 4. They beat up on 3 really crappy teams, the Chiefs, the Redskins, and the Bills, so I thought it was a fluke, but they hung with the Cowboys last week on Thanksgiving, only losing by 1 off a game winning field goal. They have 10 days to prepare for this game coming off a Thursday night game, a situation teams are 37-27 ATS in since 2008. Unfortunately for them, they haven’t done well off of a close loss in the Tony Sparano era, going 4-8 ATS after a loss of a touchdown or loss in that span since Sparano took over in 2008.

The Dolphins also now head home, where they play significantly worse football under Tony Sparano. As opposed to 20-10 ATS on the road, the Dolphins are just 9-21 ATS at home under Sparano. As favorites, they are 5-13 ATS under Sparano, as opposed to 21-17 ATS as dogs. Put those together and you find out that the Dolphins are 4-10 ATS as home favorites under Sparano.

The Dolphins have bucked all of those trends in their last 2 home games, costing me a lot of money, but doing it against the Redskins and the Bills is one thing. Doing it against the Raiders is another thing entirely. Besides, Vegas has caught onto them and is no longer underrating them. They were -4 at home for crappy Washington and -1.5 at home for slightly less crappy, but still crappy Buffalo. Now they’re -2.5 at home for Oakland, which suggests that Miami and Oakland are equal. If anything, they’re overrated now.

As I said earlier, beating Oakland at home won’t be like beating Washington or Buffalo. Both of those teams, which had similar lines coming in, suck. The Raiders might not be great, but they’re 7-4, though you could argue against their strength of schedule and quality of wins. They’re still at least a decent team. They do have to travel 3 time zones for a 1 PM ET start and they could be caught looking forward to the Packers next week, as teams are a lowly 3-8 ATS before playing the defending champs this year, which is most of the reason why this isn’t a huge bet, but I still like Oakland this week for several reasons, not limited to Miami’s struggles at home.

I don’t know what the Miami/Philadelphia in Miami line next week will be, but Miami is in a tough situation this week either way. If they’re favored in that one, they’re in their first of two as home favorites here, a situation teams are 29-44 ATS in since 2010. If they’re dogs in that one, then this game is a sandwich game for the Dolphins. They’d be favorites before being dogs and after losing as dogs. Teams in this situation are 41-62 ATS, excluding teams off a bye, since 2008.

Meanwhile, Oakland is coming off a win in which they allowed more than 21 points. Teams in this situation are 144-100 ATS since 2008. This might not make a ton of sense at first, but it does when you think about it. Good teams can allow a lot of points and still win, therefore, teams that do this are good. That means Oakland is good. I don’t know about good, but they’re at least average and they have less trends working against them here. Besides, I do find this line a little ridiculous. Miami is not as good as Oakland. It’s a pretty decent sized bet, 3 units, here on Oakland.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Cincinnati Bengals 10

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -6.5 (-110) 3 units (+300)

The history in this divisional “rivalry” is staggeringly bad for the Bengals, hence rivalry in quotation marks. Under Marvin Lewis, the Bengals are 5-13 ATS against the Steelers, including 4-9 ATS in revenge games. For contrast, Marvin Lewis is actually 9-3 ATS in revenge games against all of the other NFC North teams combined, Baltimore and Cleveland. For more contrast, divisional dogs of 7+ are 42-31 ATS trying to get revenge for a loss as a dog. Not the Bengals against the Steelers, however. The Steelers are actually really good against teams trying to get divisional revenge in general, 13-8 ATS under Mike Tomlin and 20-12 ATS with Ben Roethlisberger.

The question now becomes, can the Bengals turn this around? They are playing better football this year, but I still like the Steelers in this one. The Bengals aren’t at full strength, missing cornerback Leon Hall. They lost to Baltimore and almost lost last week at home to the lowly Browns. They also lost by 7 to the Steelers in Cincinnati.

Speaking of that game, that line was -3 in favor of the Steelers and they covered. Shouldn’t this line be at least -9 instead of -6.5? We’re getting line value with the Steelers off of a sorry showing in a near loss in Kansas City. More on that later, but for now, I have to mention some other trends working for Pittsburgh and against Cincinnati.

The Steelers, like any good team should, get better as the season goes on. Ben Roethlisberger is 22-13 ATS after week 13 (including the playoffs), in his career. Ben Roethlisberger also has a very strong career divisional ATS record, as any good quarterback should, going 29-18 ATS in divisional games. Meanwhile, the Bengals are coming off a near win over a divisional opponent last week in the Browns. Teams coming off a divisional win of 4 or less are 36-53 ATS since 2008, with the logic being that they exhausted too much energy to win a close and meaningful (divisional) game. This is especially relevant for the Bengals, as they trailed and won in come back fashion, which takes a lot out of a team.

All of the trends don’t go for the Steelers. The Bengals are 15-8 ATS as dogs since 2009. They really seem to relish this underdog, spoiler role. Meanwhile, the Steelers are in their first of 2 as home favorites, a situation teams are 29-44 ATS in since 2010. However, the majority of the trends favor the Steelers.

Now back to the Steelers’ performance last week. I really do think it distorted this line at least 2 points, and my logic for that argument is mentioned earlier. However, I don’t think this matters. Mike Tomlin is very good off of a loss as favorites, going 11-6 ATS in that situation in his career. They didn’t lose last week, but that doesn’t mean he’s not an awesome motivator off of a disappointing performance. Off of a game in which they didn’t cover, Tomlin is 18-12 ATS.

The Steelers have had trouble covering as large favorites since 2009, as they are 5-8 ATS in this situation. This has been seen this year, with teams like the Jaguars, Colts, and Chiefs hanging within a few points of the Steelers, and it’s part of the reason why the Bengals are actually a publicly favored underdog. The majority of the money, and no small majority, is on the Bengals. In addition to getting to bet against a public dog (always a good thing), this does give us line value because as bad as Roethlisberger has been as big favorites, he always comes to play as large favorites within the division, going 10-4 ATS in this situation in his career.

I’ve outlined the many reasons why I like the Steelers this week. I’m taking them for 3. I think they bounce back from a poor performance against a bad team and continue their divisional dominance over the Bengals, who are overrated by Vegas, banged up, and a publicly backed underdog. I’m not taking them for any more than 3, however, because Andy Dalton is a pretty good quarterback who has hung within 7 of the Steelers and Ravens, but I still do really like this spot for the Steelers.

Carolina Panthers 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Upset Pick (+150)

Pick against spread: Carolina +3 (+110) 3 units (+300)

Tampa Bay’s season is over and in heart breaking fashion. The now 4-7 Buccaneers led the Titans in Tennessee 17-10 late, but allowed 13 4^th quarter points and turned the ball over on their last 2 drives, costing me 4 units in the process (Tampa Bay +3.5), and losing 23-17. They had high expectations coming into the season and actually led the division at one point, at 4-2, holding a tie breaker with the also 4-2 Saints. However, they’ve lost 5 straight and now sit 4 back of the Saints and 3 back of the Falcons. I find it very hard to believe they’re going to be able to give 100% this week, even against a divisional opponent like the Panthers, as their opponent is just 3-8.

On top of that, Tampa Bay is really bad at home under Raheem Morris, for some reason, 6-16 ATS since he took over in 2009 and 4-14 ATS as underdogs or favorites of 3 or less. I think Carolina can capitalize on this. They’ve played two divisional games so far, hanging within 3 of the Saints and leading the Falcons in their 4^th quarter, before a few killer turnovers. The young, Cam Newton led Panthers play divisional opponents tough and have the type of offense to exploit a banged up Tampa Bay defense and win in a shoot out. It’s also worth noting that teams are 140-96 ATS in their 2^nd of 2 road games since 2008. The Panthers are in this situation.

I don’t have a ton of trends for this, but I really think Tampa Bay is going to be flat this week and given their struggles at home under Raheem Morris, I think the Panthers have a very good chance of taking advantage of them and picking up a win here. Besides, they’re on 5 game losing streak. The atmosphere in the locker room must be terrible and I’m certainly not picking a bunch of losers to win straight up, let alone as favorites.

New York Jets 26 Washington Redskins 9

Pick against spread: NY Jets -3 (-110) 3 units (+300)

Rex Grossman played well against the Seahawks last week, completing 26 of 35 for 317 yards, 2 touchdowns, and unfortunately 2 interceptions. However, the Redskins still did win in Seattle, a very tough place to win. He looked decent the week before in a losing effort to the Cowboys, going 25 of 38 for 292 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick in their overtime loss to their division rivals. However, Grossman is still not a very good quarterback. He’s a turnover machine with 14 interceptions to 10 turnovers and he’s inconsistent. The fact that he was good last week means he’s due for a stinker this week. Actually, and this is an embarrassing stat for the organization, the fact that the Redskins won last week means they are due for a stinker. Since 2002, the Redskins are 22-44 ATS off of a win. Ouch.

Meanwhile, the Jets are really good off of a win in the Rex Ryan era, 16-9 ATS. Rex Grossman is due for a bad game, and who better to have it against them one of the best pass defenses in the league, the New York Jets. I don’t give Grossman much of a chance against Rex Ryan’s defense in what should be a blowout win.

A few other trends work against Washington. They are playing the Patriots next week and teams are 10-17 ATS before doing that since 2010, the 2^nd worst record before playing any team in that time period. Weirdly, teams have the worst ATS record before playing Arizona, but maybe that’s just because they play so many crappy NFC West teams.

The Jets, meanwhile, are coming off a win after allowing 21+ points. Teams in this situation are 144-100 ATS, 91-57 ATS as favorites. One trend does work against the Jets, as they are coming off of a close divisional win. Teams are 36-53 ATS after a division win by 4 or fewer since 2008, 15-30 ATS as favorites, but given that there are other trends working for the Jets, I don’t have any problem betting them.

Besides, I really feel like this is going to be a blow out. As I said early, Rex Grossman is due for a bad game, as is this entire Redskins team if history is any indication. The Jets have a very good pass defense and should force several turnovers and keep the Redskins’ offense from moving the ball too much. Mark Sanchez is at his best when he doesn’t have to do a lot and if the Jets defense can dominate, it will keep Sanchez from having to do too much and allow the Jets to win comfortably. I have no problem taking them -3 here on the road.

Denver Broncos 17 Minnesota Vikings 10 Upset Pick (+100) 6 units Survivor Pick 10-2 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ) (+600)

Pick against spread: Denver +1 (-105) 0 units

All Tim Tebow has to do is win here to cover. And all Tim Tebow does is win. It’s really that easy. Tebow has won a whopping 4 straight games as underdogs, but Vegas doesn’t seem to have caught on as they’ve made him 1 point road underdogs to the 2-9 Minnesota Vikings without Adrian Peterson. Maybe Tim Tebow will have some trouble winning against a team that can legitimately put a lot of points on the board, but the Vikings are not one of those teams, especially not without Adrian Peterson. Oh, and the Broncos defense is pretty good too in large part because Von Miller is a beast.

There are some trends to support me. The Broncos are in their 2^nd of 2 road games, a situation teams are 140-96 ATS in since 2008 before a home game. The Vikings, meanwhile, play the Lions next week. Favorites before being divisional dogs are 51-73 ATS since 2008, though 20-19 ATS as favorites of less than 3. Meanwhile, favorites before being divisional dogs and after losing as dogs (The Vikings lost in Atlanta last week) are 43-65 ATS since 2002 and 20-28 ATS as favorites of less than 3.

Drilling down deeper, favorites before being divisional dogs of 7+ (which the Vikings almost surely will be at Detroit next week) are 34-55 ATS since 2002, 17-27 ATS as favorites of less than 3. Favorites before being divisional dogs of 7+ and after losing as dogs are 12-23 ATS since 2002, 6-11 ATS as favorites of less than 3. The point is, the Vikings aren’t in a good situation.

I know this is getting boring because I’m picking the Broncos as my pick of the week every week, but I’m doing it again this week. Not a lot has been working for me this season, but I’ve bet on Tebow in all 6 of his starts and he’s gone 5-1 ATS, winning me 20 units in the process. I’m not changing that in his 7^th start, especially since all he has to do is beat a bad team with no offense and there are trends to support him.

New England Patriots 38 Indianapolis Colts 6

Pick against spread: New England -20.5 (-105) 1 unit (-105)

Brady + Manning = yearly epic showdown. Brady + Orlovsky = 20.5 point line. It’s funny how one guy can change everything. For those wondering, this is the 5^th time since 1989 that a line has been 21 or higher. No team has ever covered a line of 21+, going 0-4 ATS in those 4 games. 3 of those games actually featured Brady and the Patriots. They were amazingly 21+ point favorites three times in 2007, though they didn’t cover once.

So am I taking the Colts? Yeah, right. The Patriots are playing very good football right now on both ends of the field. They’ve scored 109 points in their last 3 games and haven’t allowed more than 25 points since week 3. Since their week 3 loss to the Bills, the Patriots defense is actually amazingly allowing only 18 points per game over their last 8. Given how bad Dan Orlovsky (who gets the start over Curtis Painter) is, the Colts could easily be held in single digits this week.

Meanwhile, the Colts’ defense sucks so the Patriots should score at least 30 again, probably more. The Patriots have won their last 3 by 18+ and If it wasn’t for a bullshit late score by Philadelphia against a prevent defense last week, they’d have won their last 3 by 21+ and those games were against the Jets, Chiefs, and Eagles, all of whom could beat the Colts with ease. The Patriots should cover this 21 point line here in blowout fashion. I honestly think we could see 62-7 here again. And if you think the Patriots won’t run up the score here, then you don’t know the Patriots. Oh, and fun fact (unless you’re a Colts fan) the Colts’ money line here is +1300 (+1400 at some places). That’s the definition of a long shot.

Cleveland Browns 16 Baltimore Ravens 13 Upset Pick (+235)

Pick against spread: Cleveland Browns +6.5 (-110) 3 units (-330)

The Ravens sit at 8-3 with wins over the Steelers (twice), the Matt Schaub Texans, the Jets, the Bengals, and now the 49ers. They should be the best team in the AFC, but they always play down to the level of the competition, losing to the Jaguars, the Titans, and the Seahawks on the road and needing a comeback to beat the Cardinals in Baltimore. Given that, the Browns have a chance here in a game that they really shouldn’t have a chance in.

The Ravens are coming off of a win on Thanksgiving over John Harbaugh’s brother Jim and the San Francisco 49ers, who were previously 9-1. Teams are 37-27 ATS since 2008 after Thursday Night Football, so the Ravens should have an edge, but they really haven’t played well off of wins this season. They’ve been very inconsistent so the fact that they won last week might actually hurt them this week, especially as they play a poor opponent.

As for the Browns, they have been playing a little better of late. They almost beat the Bengals last week. They also almost beat the Rams, losing by 1 on a missed chip shot field goal, and beat the Jaguars. None of those teams are as good as the Ravens, but as I said before, the Ravens tend to play down to the level of the competition so if they can hang within a few points of those opponents, they can hang within 6 of the Ravens here. The Browns are also in a very powerful situation, in their 2^nd of 2 as divisional dogs of 6+. Teams in this situation are 17-7 ATS since 2002.

The Browns have a chance to win here given how badly the Ravens have played against bad opponents this season, so I’m putting one unit on the high money line. I’m also pretty confident they’ll cover since we’re being given 6.5 points with them. If the Ravens don’t play well, I find it hard to believe they’ll beat the Browns by more than 6. There’s also a strong trend with the Browns.

Dallas Cowboys 19 Arizona Cardinals 17

Pick against spread: Arizona Cardinals +4.5 (-110) 2 units (+200)

It’s December. Normally this is the most wonderful time of the year, but not for Tony Romo. Tony Romo’s struggles once the calendar turns December are well documented. Despite an 18-2 career record in the month of November, Romo is actually only 7-13 ATS from week 13 on. I guess you could call him The Grinch. Signature Romo in December games seem to be losing to bad teams. As a favorite, he’s just 9-7 straight up in the month of December, so he could easily lose here.

Normally, teams are 37-27 ATS since 2008 after Thursday Night Football. However, Tony Romo is just 1-4 ATS after the Cowboys’ annual Thanksgiving game. The Cardinals have it stacked against them a bit this week too, after a close divisional win last week. Teams are 36-53 ATS after a divisional win by 4 or fewer since 2008, but the Cowboys are no slouch of an opponent as I expect the Cardinals to still give a good effort. Dogs in that situation are just 21-23 ATS, so that pretty much neutralizes that trend. Besides, the Cardinals always give the Cowboys a good game, beating them in Arizona in 6 of their last 7 matchups.

Besides, I think the Cowboys are a bit overrated and the Cardinals are a bit underrated. The Cowboys have struggled with the Redskins and Dolphins in their past 2 weeks and that was in November when Romo is normally good. In fact, they’re 1-4 ATS in their last 5. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 3-2 in their last 5 and almost beat Baltimore in Baltimore. I don’t know if Arizona can win, but I like them for a couple units to cover.

Green Bay Packers 34 New York Giants 17

Pick against spread: Green Bay Packers -7.5 (+100) 3 units (-300)

I found it funny during the MNF game that one of the commentators mentioned a quote from Tom Coughlin in which he said “if we don’t make the playoffs this year, it will be a historic collapse.” I found this funny because there would be nothing “historic” about it. The Giants do this every year. They start out great and inevitably slide in the 2^nd half. This year they started 6-2 and now they are 6-5. In the first half of the season under Tom Coughlin, the Giants are 47-17 straight up, a winning percentage of 73.4%. In the 2^nd half, they are 24-35 straight up, a winning percentage of 40.7%. That’s insane!

The Giants are really reeling right now and are coming off a huge loss on MNF, 49-24 to the Saints. Teams coming off a loss of 21+ on MNF are 11-23 ATs since 2002. The Giants looked demotivated last week and with 5 days to prepare, normally teams are unable to shake those low feelings.

Meanwhile, the Packers are undefeated and coming off a win on Thursday Night Football. The Giants have just 5 days to prepare. The Packers have 9. That obviously is an advantage for them. Teams are 37-27 ATS coming off Thursday Night Football since 2008. I did some research on teams coming off of Thursday Night Football playing teams coming off of Monday Night Football. There weren’t a lot of instances as the schedulers normally try to avoid such a scenario, but the team coming off Thursday Night Football is 9-5 ATS since 1989, 9-3 ATS against a team that lost on Monday. I know that’s not a lot to go on, but it’s enough and it makes sense that the Packers would have the advantage here.

Not like the Packers really need the advantage. Since 2009, they’re 32-16 ATS. That’s the best record in the league ATS since then. If you cut out the two games last year that Rodgers missed, they’re an even better 31-15 ATS. They’re undefeated for a reason. They’re playing out of their mind. They didn’t even look that good in Detroit and Atlanta against two quality opponents on the road and won both by double figures.

On top of that, the Packers are in their 2^nd of 2 road games here. This is a situation teams are 140-96 ATS in before a home game since 2008. Road favorites after winning as road favorites, meanwhile, which the Packers are, are 41-24 ATS since 2002. The Packers are the best team in football by far and the Giants are reeling once again in the 2^nd half. I don’t see the Packers having much trouble with them. If this line were 7 and not 7.5, I’d put 4 on it, but I’m putting 3 on it here.

San Francisco 49ers 20 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: St. Louis +13 (-110) 1 unit (-110)

The 49ers loss to the Ravens in Baltimore on Thanksgiving raised some doubts about their ability to play with the big boys, though it was almost unfair that they had to travel on 3 days rest across the country to play one of the best teams in the league. We’ll get a better feel for this team when they play Pittsburgh in a couple weeks. However, the Rams are not one of the big boys. In fact, the way they’re playing right now, they’re a bunch of little babies. They’re 2-9 and 0-3 in the lowly NFC West against such teams as Seattle and Arizona.

The 49ers are now well rested. Teams are 37-27 ATS since 2008 after Thursday Night Football. They’re also in their first of two as divisional favorites, a situation teams are 84-56 ATS in since 2002. The Rams, meanwhile, are on the road. Excluding the 2011 49ers, NFC West teams are just 19-31 ATS on the road in the last 2 years and 11-19 ATS on the road within the division since 2009.

The Rams are also dogs and rightfully so. NFC West teams are 25-17 ATS as divisional favorites since 2008, while the Rams are just 3-7 ATS as divisional dogs under Steve Spagnuolo. All that said, I’m taking the Rams, but only for a unit because they have so much working against them. This line is very big and the 49ers aren’t built to blow teams out. They should win by 10 or so, but I’m not willing to lay 13 with this team against anyone.

New Orleans Saints 34 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against spread: New Orleans -9 (-105) 2 units

Remember when the Lions were 5-0? Good times. The Lions now sit at 7-4 and the playoffs are in serious jeopardy. They’ll also be without Ndamukong Suh who slammed an offensive lineman’s helmet into the turf 3 times and then stepped on his arm…er I mean tripped…and was hit with a 2 game suspension.

Their 2 wins since their 5-0 start were against the Panthers in a game that they trailed big early and against the Broncos before they made their offense more Tebow friendly. They looked awful against Green Bay, got blown out by Chicago, and also lost at home to San Francisco and Atlanta, two teams that had worse records than them coming in. Their struggles didn’t start after week 5, however. They needed comebacks to beat Dallas and Minnesota and didn’t really look that good on MNF against the Bears, who were 2-3 at that point.

The Lions also are an immature team that has not handled adversity well this season. When they trailed in their biggest game of the season, Suh responded with the kind of violence that doesn’t belong on the football field. When they lost their first game of the season, Jim Schwartz blew up at Jim Harbaugh because his handshake was too strong. And, of course, they really haven’t played well at all since their first loss, another sign of a team that can’t handle adversity. They may be coming off of Thursday Night Football, a situation teams are 37-27 ATS in since 2008, but I really don’t like them in this situation coming off their biggest loss of the season.

Meanwhile, the Saints are rolling, after a 49-24 win on MNF football. Teams normally carry that emotional high over well into their next game, even on short rest. Teams are 24-11 ATS off a MNF win of 21+ since 2002. This isn’t a huge bet because the Lions have had more time to prepare for this game than the Saints and teams coming off Thursday games are 9-5 ATS against teams coming off Monday games since 1989 (though 0-2 ATS against teams coming off a Monday win) and because it’s such a big line, but I like the Saints for a couple.

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 San Diego Chargers 13 Upset Pick (+125) 2 units

Pick against spread: Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 (+105) 0 units

In the past week, the Jaguars have fired their head coach and sold the team. I don’t think the organization has been this newsworthy in…ever. The Jaguars are bad anyway at 3-8 and they could easily be very distracted in this one. In the last 17 instances, teams are 5-12 ATS the week after firing their Head Coach midseason and I don’t think any of those teams were sold midweek.

On top of that, the Jaguars really don’t care about anything other than divisional opponents. Since 2008, the Jaguars are 5-15 ATS after a divisional game and 1-9 ATS after a divisional loss. In that same time period, they are 12-25 ATS against non-divisional foes. In all under Jack Del Rio, they went 19-30 ATS after a divisional opponent. Del Rio is gone, but I doubt that culture will change all that quickly.

That being said, I refuse to bet on the Chargers as favorites. They’re a bunch of losers. They have lost 6 straight and their 4 wins came against the Kyle Orton Broncos, the Donovan McNabb Vikings, the Chad Henne Dolphins, and the Chiefs who got revenge on them and all 4 of those wins were by 10 or less. There’s no other way to put it. Until they fire Norv Turner, they’re a bunch of losers. They’re not bad players, they’re just losers and I refuse to bet on them as favorites.

Besides, the Chargers are in a bad situation here as well. Philip Rivers is just 3-10 ATS as non-divisional road favorites in his career and 1-8 ATS with Norv Turner as his Head Coach. The Chargers had to travel all the way across the country for this game and the Jaguars could play off the energy of the home crowd and win the way they did against Baltimore at home on MNF earlier this season (who gave the Jaguars two MNF games?!).

LV Hilton Super Contest: Denver +1.5, Seattle +3, Green Bay -7,  NY Jets -3, Pittsburgh -6.5 (25-34)

 

 

No time for write ups this week. Really trying to get everything done by Thanksgiving so I can just watch football from Thursday on. 

32(32). Indianapolis Colts 0-10

31(30). Washington Redskins 3-7

30(29). St. Louis Rams 2-8

29(31). Miami Dolphins 3-7

28(27). Carolina Panthers 2-8

27(22). Minnesota Vikings 2-8

26(28). Kansas City Chiefs 4-6

25(26). Arizona Cardinals 3-7

24(23). Jacksonville Jaguars 3-7

23(25). Cleveland Browns 4-6

22(24). Seattle Seahawks 4-6

21(15). Buffalo Bills 5-5

20(21). Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-6

19(20). San Diego Chargers 4-6

18(19). Tennessee Titans 5-5

17(18). Oakland Raiders 6-4

 

16(16). Philadelphia Eagles 4-6

15(17). Denver Broncos 5-5

14(14). New York Giants 6-4

13(9). Dallas Cowboys 6-4

12(13). New York Jets 5-5

11(12). Cincinnati Bengals 6-4

10(7). Houston Texans 7-3

9(8). Chicago Bears 7-3

8(10). Detroit Lions 7-3

7(11). Atlanta Falcons 6-4

6(6). Baltimore Ravens 7-3

5(5). Pittsburgh Steelers 7-3

4(4). New Orleans Saints 7-3

3(3). San Francisco 49ers 9-1

2(2). New England Patriots 7-3

1(1). Green Bay Packers 10-0

 

 

Last week overall: 12-2

Last week ATS: 5-7-2 (-305/-1 units)

Overall picks: 101-59 (.631)

Upset Picks: 3-1 (-60/-1 units)

ATS Picks: 65-88-7 (-8970/-69 units)

Survivor picks: 9-2 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL)

Upset picks: 17-20 (+1690/-1 units) 

Detroit Lions 34 Green Bay Packers 31 Upset Pick (+230)

Pick against spread: Detroit +6 (-110) 4 units (-440)

The Packers come into this Thanksgiving game at 10-0. The Lions come in 1-8 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2002, but they haven’t been as good as they are now since 2002. The Lions come in at 7-3, fresh off a demolition of the Panthers 49-35. They come in scoring 30.1 points per game, 3^rd in the league, making them one of three teams (Green Bay, New Orleans) to score over 30 points a game.

There are several reasons why the Packers could have trouble with the Lions this Thanksgiving and for that reason I think the stars are aligned for a loss for the Packers. First of all, the Packers are on the road. They’ve been significantly worse on than road than at home. Carolina, Minnesota, and San Diego all hung within a touchdown or less of the Packers on the road and even wins against the Bears and Falcons weren’t blow out. The Bears lost by 10 and it should have been 3, but a late punt return was called back on the biggest phantom penalty of all time. They trailed 14-0 in Atlanta before Atlanta stopped being able to move the football.

Secondly, the Lions have an explosive offense, as I mentioned earlier, over 30 points per game. The Packers have only played two legitimately explosive offenses, the Chargers and the Saints. They scored 35 and 34 points respectively against them. Their pass defense is their Achilles heel. I think very good passing offenses can score with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers enough to keep it close.

Thirdly, the Packers have to travel on a short week. Home teams are 9-3 ATS on Thursday Night Football since 2010 and that includes the Lions loses on Thursday Night Football to the Patriots last year, when, as I mentioned, they were not nearly as good of a team.

Finally, this is essentially the Lions Super Bowl. They’ve had this game circled for weeks, if not the entire season. The Packers are undefeated Super Bowl champions, division rivals, and the Lions have frequently disappointed on Thanksgiving. Finally with a solid team, I think they really want to take advantage and get what would be a huge win here. For the Packers, they also want a win, obviously, but not as badly. In fact, after seeing what happened to the Patriots in 2007, some might even not want to get regular season perfection.

Even if the Lions don’t win, as I think they can, I think they have a really good chance of covering. As I said earlier, the Panthers, Vikings, and Chargers all hung within 7 points of this team on the road, why can’t the significantly better Lions? Also, as I mentioned earlier, they are the Thursday home team and the win would mean more for them. On top of that, I think Vegas is underrating them. The Packers were -14 for Tampa Bay at home. This line suggests Detroit would be -12 at Green Bay. I disagree. This is a very good football team, especially with Kevin Smith having stepped up to give them a legitimate threat on the ground.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against spread: Dallas -7 (-105) 3 units (-315)

The Dolphins are on fire right now. After starting the season 0-7 and looking destined for Andrew Luck and the #1 pick, the Dolphins have won 3 in a row by a combined score of 86-20. Matt Moore has made Dolphin fans forget about Andrew Luck by going 51 of 72 (70.8%) for 613 yards (8.5 YPA) and 6 touchdowns to one interception and the defense has held all 3 opponents to single figures.

So what happened? How did the 0-7 Dolphins turn into the ‘72 Dolphins? Well they have been playing better, I’ll give them that, but also look at their schedule. They’ve played Kansas City, Washington, and Buffalo, 3 teams playing horrible football at the moment. The Dallas Cowboys are a completely different monster. It’s one thing to hold Matt Cassel, Rex Grossman, and Ryan Fitzpatrick to single digits. It’s another to hold Tony Romo to single digits, especially considering Romo’s 18-2 November record.

The Cowboys didn’t look so great against the Redskins last week, but they still came away with a win to improve to 6-4 and it’s very possible they just overlooked the lowly Redskins. They won’t overlook a team hot on a 3 game winning streak. Besides, this is their annual Thanksgiving game. They always get up for this game. I guess you could say they’re the anti-Lions. Since 2001, the Cowboys are 9-2 ATS on Thanksgiving and Tony Romo is 5-0 all time on Thanksgiving, winning by an average of 22 points. The Cowboys have also covered in their last 6 Thanksgiving games, including their lone loss on Thanksgiving since 2006, last year to the Saints when Tony Romo was hurt. One more fun trend in Dallas’ favor, teams that allow 21+ points and still win the week before are 141-98 ATS since 2008.

Besides, I think Miami’s winning streak has skewed this line a little too much. 3 weeks ago, the Dolphins probably would have been +13 or so here. St. Louis was +13 in Dallas and Washington was +7.5 at home, so essentially +13.5 had that game been in Dallas. The Dolphins have been playing better of late, but considering their schedule, I don’t think they’ve played well enough to get bumped up 6 whole points by Vegas.

The final reason why this game is going to be especially tough for the Dolphins is because they’ll be traveling on a short week. Thursday road teams are 3-9 ATS since 2010. They’re at a huge disadvantage for this reason. I don’t think they have enough to overcome all that’s stacked against them this week, even though they have looked good against terrible competition in the past 3 weeks.

Baltimore Ravens 17 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against spread: Baltimore -3 (-120) 2 units (+200)

Harbaugh. Harbaugh. This is a matchup of Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers and John Harbaugh’s Ravens in what could be one of the best games of the year considering these two teams combined 16-4 record. This is also a matchup of two of the best run defenses in the league, in fact, the two best in my opinion. The 49ers led the league in fewest yards allowed with 739, while the Ravens rank 5^th with 932. However, the Ravens rank first in YPC with 3.3, whereas the 49ers rank 4^th with 3.6.

Considering that, I think the winner of this game is going to go to whichever quarterback plays better. Joe Flacco hasn’t had the best season and he’s been very inconsistent. However, he always seems to plays his best against good competition, as do the Ravens as a whole. Despite loses to Seattle, Jacksonville, and Tennessee and almost Arizona, the Ravens have two wins over the Steelers, a win over the Jets, a win over the Texans, and a win over the Bengals.

The 49ers meanwhile, have some nice wins, but let’s take a closer look at their signature wins. They beat Cincinnati 13-8 week 3. Cincinnati is a quality opponent, but I don’t think the Bengals were quite as good as they are now (the Ravens beat them last week) back in week 3. Andy Dalton and company have gotten better as the season has gone on. They beat Tampa Bay and Detroit, but both of those teams are young teams and were coming off Monday Night wins. They beat the Giants which is impressive, but the Ravens are a better team than the Giants. They also beat Philadelphia, but they suck. The Giants are the only good, veteran team they’ve beaten. The Ravens are going to be their biggest team of the season, whereas the Ravens have beaten teams like the Steelers who are at least on the same tier as the 49ers.

The 49ers also haven’t played a good team with a good run defense yet, unless you count the week 3 Bengals (3^rd) but I don’t because they lost to Kyle Orton and the Broncos the week before. Tampa Bay ranks 25^th, Detroit ranks 30^th, and the Giants rank 23^rd. Baltimore can take away Frank Gore and make Alex Smith beat them. I don’t think he can do that. The 49ers will definitely take away Ray Rice as well, but I trust Flacco more than I trust Alex Smith. He’s at his best against his best competition and I think he leads them to victory in an ugly low scoring game here.

On top of all this, the 49ers do have to travel across the country for a Thursday Night Game, which is going to be rough. As I’ve said twice, road teams are 3-9 ATS on Thursday since 2010. On top of that, they have to travel 3 time zones across the country. They’ve done that 4 times this season and won all 4 of those, but they haven’t had to do it on short rest before. I think this game will push their East Coast record to 4-1. This line is still just a field goal so given that I can take the home team ATS with some confidence. One more fun trend in Baltimore’s favor, teams that allow 21+ points and still win the week before are 141-98 ATS since 2008.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against spread: Minnesota +9.5 (-115) 1 unit (-115)

Bad news for the Vikings. Adrian Peterson is out. Toby Gerhart will get the start and he does have some talent (it seems like everyone forgot he was the Heisman runner up in 2009), but I don’t know how good of a game he’ll have Atlanta has one of the league best run defenses, surrendering 3.6 YPC. The burden of the offense will fall completely on Christian Ponder for the first time in his career. Considering he’s completing 52% of his passes and has more interceptions than touchdowns, I don’t give the Vikings much of a chance in this one.

Well I guess this won’t be the first time Ponder has had to shoulder the load. He had to do so against the Raiders last week after Peterson went down. The Vikings led 7-0 with possession when Peterson went down and didn’t score again until garbage time. At the end of the 3^rd quarter, they were down 27-7 and this was against the Raiders. The Falcons are a different animal entirely.

One thing to focus on is that Ponder did led the Vikings to two garbage time 4^th quarter scores to pull to game to 27-21. The Falcons are only 2-3 ATS as 9+ point favorites in the Mike Smith era so there’s some cause for concern there. Also, as good as the Falcons are at home in the Mike Smith era, they’re only 4-4 ATS as 7 point favorites. On top of that, the Vikings have only lost by more than a touchdown twice this season and one of those instances was against the Packers so that hardly counts. The Packers are awesome.

On the other hand, the Falcons are amazing in the Mike Smith era after not covering, going 16-5 ATS, though only 2-2 ATS this season. After not covering in a game in which they won, however, they are just 3-3 ATS, which is the case this week. Overall, I don’t have a good feel for this game. The Vikings could easily get blown out without Peterson, but the Vikings could also be down 14 late and get a bullshit backdoor cover to pull within 7. I’m taking the points, but I’m not that confident in it.

Cincinnati Bengals 17 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Cleveland +7.5 (-120) 3 units (+300)

The Cleveland Browns are 4-6…4-6? How is this possible? Well, wins over Indianapolis, Seattle, Jacksonville, and Miami (the Chad Henne version) will do it. Even less impressive, all 4 of those wins were by 8 or fewer, 3 of them (excluding Indianapolis) were by 4 or less. The Bengals will be much tougher for them and they’ve already lost to them once this season, and that game was in Cleveland.

However, I do like the Browns chances to cover here for several reasons. I mentioned they lost to the Bengals earlier this season. They were actually favorites in that game. Dogs trying to avenge a divisional loss as favorites are 73-51 ATS since 2002, and a whopping 20-2 ATS after a loss of 13or less. The Bengals don’t fare too well as favorites anyway. In the Marvin Lewis era, the Bengals are 4-11 ATS as favorites of 7+. They’re also a mere 6-13 ATS as favorites in general since 2009.

On top of that, this is a classic sandwich game. The Bengals are favorites before and after being underdogs. Favorites after losing as a dog and before being dogs are 45-68 ATS since 2008. The Browns lost to the Ravens last week and have to go to Pittsburgh next week so they might see this game as a breather.

You might be thinking, the Browns are a divisional opponent, surely they’re try their hardest. However, teams struggle ATS even in an all divisional sandwich, divisional favorites after losing as divisional dogs and before being divisional dogs. There isn’t a lot of data on this, but teams in this situation are 2-5 ATS since 2002 and 13-21 ATS since 1989.

On top of that, the Bengals aren’t the same team without Leon Hall. Hall is done for the season. Besides, the Bengals aren’t built to blow teams out anyway so I really like the Browns changes to keep this within a touchdown. I’m not picking the Browns to win because they aren’t very good, but this line is more than a touchdown so I have some confidence betting on the Browns ATS given the situations in their favor. This is a revenge game for the Browns and a possible breather game for the Bengals, who aren’t very good as favorites, particularly big favorites, anyway.

Carolina Panthers 27 Indianapolis Colts 13

Pick against spread: Carolina -3 (-125) 3 units (+300)

The Colts have to win one of these weeks right? No. No they don’t. They’re awful. They’re also coming off a bye, which ordinarily might help, but with these stupid bye rules, bad teams are worse coming out of their bye. Teams ranked 17-32 in my power rankings are 3-11-1 ATS off of a bye this season, as opposed to 10-3 ATS for the teams ranked 1-16. The Colts are the worst team in the league so I really can’t see the bye helping them at all.

The Panthers have an explosive offense led by Cam Newton, but they have a terrible defense. They gave up 49 points to the Lions last week and blew a huge early lead, 24-7. However, they should be in the clear this week. The Colts are too inept to take advantage of their defense. This is going to be a blowout. The Panthers have an explosive offense. Teams that score 35 points or more and still lose are 9-3 ATS since 2008, 21-12 ATS since 2002.

The only type of team that the Colts can beat is a conservative grind it out team that will keep the game close and let the Colts use their awesome pass rushers. The Panthers are not that team and a team just like that, the Jaguars, beat them 17-3 at home. They had so many chances to win that game, but they couldn’t. That’s how bad they are. This one’s not going to be very close. If you can get this game at -3, even with extra juice, put 3 on it. Anything higher than 3, put two on it. 

Houston Texans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against spread: Houston -3.5 (-110) 2 units (+200)

This was a tough one. Matt Schaub is out. Obviously that hurts them. However, the Jaguars pushed as 10 point underdogs in Houston a few weeks ago with Schaub playing. 10 point underdogs on the road is equal to being 4 point underdogs at home, so Vegas is saying that losing Matt Schaub only makes the Texans a half point worse. That makes no sense. On top of that, the public is pounding Houston this week. More than 90% of the action is on the road dog missing its starting quarterback.

However, at the same time, Schaub isn’t the only injury affecting this game. The Jaguars are missing Rashean Mathis, as well as defensive tackle Terrance Knighton and the Texans are getting Andre Johnson back from injury. The Jaguars injuries on defense might be too much for them considering that’s the only reason they’re not awful this season. Blaine Gabbert has made 8 starts and completed more than 50% of his passes 4 times and thrown for over 120 yards 4 times. He hasn’t even looked good against Indianapolis or Cleveland and the Jaguars have scored more than 14 points twice all year

Besides, how bad are the Texans without Matt Schaub? Matt Leinart isn’t very good at all, but the Texans have the league’s #2 scoring defense and the league’s #2 rushing offense, as well as receiving options in Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels. All Matt Leinart has to do is not screw everything up and given the Texans’ greatness on defense (remember how bad they used to be) and the Jaguars awfulness on offense, the Texans should be able to cover this line with 17 or 20 points. Matt Leinart can do that right?

The Jaguars are awesome in divisional revenge games, going 14-5 ATS in this situation under Jack Del Rio. Better remember the Texans are in a good situation as well, coming off a bye. Teams in the top half of my Power Rankings are 10-3 ATS off a bye this season. In general, road favorites off a bye are a whopping 40-13 ATS since 2002. Even this season with weird bye rules, they’re 5-1 ATS. It makes sense, good teams are road favorites and good teams are focused off a bye.

Finally, the Texans are in their first game missing their starting quarterback. Teams tend to cover in this situation because Vegas and their opponent are underestimating them. This team is clearly more than their quarterback. Matt Schaub wasn’t even having that good of a season before he got hurt. Their passing offense is ranked 15^th in the league. Some of that might have had to do with Andre Johnson’s absence, but he’s back.

Even better, the Texans are missing their starting quarterback after a bye. They’ve heard for two weeks how they’re done without Schaub. They’re still a talented team with cohesion coming out of a bye, 2 weeks for Leinart to get work with the starting unit, and they’ll be very motivated to prove their doubters wrong. There are contrasting situations and angles here, but I think the Texans do have the edge because of the Jaguars’ poor offense, road favorites’ amazing ATS record after a bye, and their general level of motivation to prove they’re not done without Schaub.

New York Jets 27 Buffalo Bills 9 Survivor pick (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ)

Pick against spread: NY Jets -9 (-105) 2 units (-210)

The Bills may have started the season 3-0, 4-1, and 5-2, but in their last 3, they’ve lost 106-26, starting with a 27-11 home loss to the Jets. They have numerous injuries on both sides of the ball, stud center Eric Wood, stud nose tackle Kyle Williams, Shawne Merriman, and now Fred Jackson, an early MVP candidate, looks like he’ll be out for this game. Given that, I don’t think the Bills have much of a chance in this one.

I really don’t think this line has taken into account how awful the Bills have been in recent weeks, against teams that are both good and teams that are bad (Miami). 3 weeks ago, the Bills were -1.5 at home, the equivalent of +4.5 on the road. Now they’re +9 on the road, a swing of 4.5 points, which I don’t think is enough.

On top of that, the Jets are going to be really motivated here after losing two in a row. At 5-5, they need a win to stay in the playoff hunt. They’re also rested off a Thursday Night game. They’ve had 10 days to prepare for the lowly Bills, which just doesn’t seem fair. Teams after a Thursday Night Game are 36-26 ATS since 2008. Finally, the Bills are in their 3^rd straight road game as an underdog, a situation teams are 11-24 ATS in.

St. Louis Rams 23 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: St. Louis -3 (+110) 3 units (-300)

Oh boy! Another NFC West matchup! This one happens to be a rematch of a game from a few weeks ago. The Rams dominated that game for the most part, out-gaining them 383-262, but they lost in overtime 19-13 on a punt return touchdown. They also had a field goal blocked in regulation. That game was in Arizona, so it’s safe to say that the Rams are the better team on a neutral field, barring any bizarre special teams happenings.

This game isn’t on a neutral field, as the rematch will take place in St. Louis. This gives St. Louis an advantages. Excluding the 2011 49ers, NFC West teams are just 18-31 ATS on the road in the last 2 years, 10-19 ATS on the road within the division since 2009. The Rams had both of those trends against them when they lost in Arizona. Now they have them working for them.

On top of that, the Rams will want to get revenge for that bizarre loss. Teams trying to avenge an overtime divisional loss are 12-4 ATS since 2008. That makes sense as that overtime loss will give them extra motivational to get revenge against a hated divisional foe. Given that they’re at home and the better team and looking for major revenge, I feel confident putting a few on the Rams here. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 Tennessee Titans 17 Upset Pick (+165)

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +3.5 (-120) 4 units (-480)

This is do or die time for the Buccaneers. At 4-6, the playoffs are not impossible, but very unlikely. If they lose this week, their season is over. I think they know that and will play like that. On top of that, they’re in their 2^nd straight road game, a situation teams are 153-119 ATS in since 2008, 76-57 ATS in their 2^nd straight as dogs. Road dogs after a road loss are 160-109 ATS since 2002, 59-38 ATS since 2008. If you like very specific trends, teams that cover, but don’t win as road dogs of 10+ are 16-4 ATS the next week as road dogs of 3+.

As for Tennessee, I’ve said they’re overrated all season. They’re not as good as their 5-5 record suggests. Their 5 wins are against Baltimore, which means nothing because Seattle and Jacksonville beat them too, Denver, Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Carolina. Tampa Bay has been very inconsistent all season, but they seem to be better on the road, 14-5 ATS on the road under Raheem Morris, as opposed to 6-16 ATS at home. They got better as last season went on and they could easily do the same thing this year. They looked better last week against Green Bay.

Chicago Bears 23 Oakland Raiders 20 Upset Pick (+200)

Pick against spread: Chicago +4.5 (-105) 3 units (-315)

Jay Cutler is done for the season so the Bears are obviously done right? Not necessarily. Caleb Hanie proved in the NFC Championship game last year that he can play. Mike Martz has had success with random, overlooked quarterbacks before, finding Kurt Warner in a grocery store and then finding Marc Bulger in the 6^th round of the draft. Hanie is a good fit for Martz’ system and I think he can have some success with him.

On top of that, the Bears still have Matt Forte, who might be the most involved running back in the NFL. His 1391 total yards rank tops in the league this season and he’s an excellent blocker on top of that. He gives them a chance to stay competitive offensively, especially with an underrated signal caller in Caleb Hanie. The Raiders can’t stop the run very well. Their 5.2 YPC allowed is tied for worst in the league with New Orleans so I think the Bears can run the ball very effectively and take the pressure off of Hanie. And of course the Bears have an awesome defense. They weren’t 7-3 and on a 5 game winning streak just because of Cutler.

Cutler’s injury could easily cause the Raiders to overlook them this week. Meanwhile, the Bears supporting cast will play at 110% to make up for the loss of Cutler. They’ve been hearing all week how they’re finished without Cutler, yet they have one of the best running backs in the league, one of the best defenses in the league, a 7-3 record, a 5 game winning streak, a quarterback who almost led a comeback in the NFC Championship game last year, and an offensive coordinator who has won with overlooked quarterback before. Finally, Vegas has them underrated here as 4.5 dogs in Oakland. I feel pretty good about betting on the Bears this week.

Seattle Seahawks 23 Washington Redskins 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -3.5 (-105) 3 units (-315)

The Redskins almost won last week. They took the Cowboys to overtime and missed a makeable field goal for the win, losing 27-24. Rex Grossman actually played well, completing 25 of 38 for 289 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick. However, now the Redskins have to pick up the pieces and travel all the way to the Pacific Northwest. I think they could be really flat off of that loss and given that Grossman played well last week, I honestly think that makes it more likely he’ll suck this week. He can’t have two good performances in a row.

Besides, it’s not like the Redskins are traveling just anywhere. They have to play at Qwest Field. As opposed to 13-26 ATS on the road, the Seahawks at 25-13 ATS at home since 2007, 13-5 ATS as home favorites, and they haven’t even been very good since 2007. The Seahawks have a clear home field advantage in this one.

Speaking of home field advantage, normal home field advantage adds 3 points to the line so this line is basically saying that the Seahawks are .5 points better than the Redskins and we’re getting smaller juice. I completely disagree with that. The Seahawks have 4 wins and the Redskins have 3 and haven’t won since week 4. And that doesn’t even take into account that the Seahawks’ opponent should probably be given 4 points at Qwest, considering how good they are at home, and it doesn’t take into account that Washington could be very flat this week.

New England Patriots 31 Philadelphia Eagles 21

Pick against spread: New England -3.5 (-110) 2 units (+200)

The Eagles have saved their season. This isn’t to say they’re going to make the playoffs now, but if they had lost to the Giants in New York, they’d fall 4 back, without the tiebreaker, with 6 to go, so essentially 5 back with 6 to go. Now they sit just 2 back of New York with 6 to go. Not a great position to be in, but not impossible. The Eagles played very well against the Giants in their first game with Vince Young, but I’m not necessarily sure that will happen again.

I do happen to think that Vince Young is a very underrated quarterback. Without him, the Titans were under .500 during his time in Tennessee and with him their record was about .650. Now he’s 1-0 with a team that was 3-6 without him. That has to mean something. However, his supporting cast probably won’t play with the same intensity as they did last week against the Giants. They just won a must win game against a divisional rival with a backup quarterback. It’s going to be very tough for them to maintain that level of intensity for two weeks in a row. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were flat this week.

At the same time, what if those Eagles are here to stay? Andy Reid teams do always get better as the season goes on. From week 11 on, they are 50-33 ATS in the Andy Reid era, as opposed to just 61-56 ATS before then. Their winning percentages are significantly different as well. They are 66-52 before week 11 and 55-27 after. On top of this, Andy Reid’s teams are always better as underdogs. They’re best when they’re being overlooked, going 44-28 ATS as underdogs, 24-13 ATS as underdogs off a win.

However, I really think the Patriots are on a roll now. Their loss to the Giants reminded me a lot of their loss in Cleveland last year. They came out with the same sort of intensity against New York that they came out with against Pittsburgh last year after the Cleveland loss and they didn’t loss the rest of the way. The Patriots blew the Chiefs out 34-3 last week, on MNF no less, which of course means that they fit the roll of a team coming off a win of 21+ on MNF, a situation teams are 23-11 ATS in since 2002. Tom Brady, meanwhile, is 10-5 ATS after MNF, 8-3 ATS after a MNF win.

The Patriots are playing really good football right now. Surprisingly, since the Buffalo loss, the Patriots are surrendering 17.7 points per game and they’re not beating up on the little sisters of the poor. They’ve played teams like Dallas, Oakland, the Jets (twice), the Giants and the Steelers. As long as the offense plays well, the Patriots should cover this spread.

I really like their chance to do so. DRC is out and Nnamdi Asomugha is probably out for the Eagles, which means they essentially will have the same secondary this week that they had last year when they were one of the worst pass defenses in the league. On top of that, they still can’t stop the run and there’s no way in hell their weak linebackers will be able to slow down Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. I’m not terribly confident in this because there are a lot of conflicting trends and I wish this line was -3 and not -3.5 (if you can get -3, put 3 on it), but I’m putting 2 units on this.

Denver Broncos 20 San Diego Chargers 17 Upset Pick (+220)

Pick against spread: Denver +6 (-110) 5 units (+500)

This line makes absolutely no sense. The Chargers are 3 points better than the Broncos? What?! The Chargers have 4 wins and are on a 5 game losing streak, while the Broncos have 5 wins and are 4-1 in their last 5. Tim Tebow almost led the Broncos to a 16 point comeback after being put in mid game against the Chargers earlier this season so he’s obviously able to score points on them.

Besides, Tim Tebow just wins games. Philip Rivers just loses them. It’s really that simple. They’re polar opposites. Tebow motivates his teammates, gets better in the clutch, can pick up big chunks of yardage on the ground, opens things up for the running game and can make the occasional clutch throw. Philip Rivers just does stupid stuff and turnovers the ball over constantly. Oh and his coach is a moron.

Denver also has the better defense, as strange as that may sound. They rank 23^rd in rush defense, perfect for the run heavy Broncos offense to gash them. The Broncos rank 15^th. The Broncos are also allowing fewer points and have more sacks, with is also important because the Chargers have a banged up offensive line. Von Miller is a beast. He and the rest of this defense should allow the Broncos to control the clock, especially since Philip Rivers is going to have a few turnovers this week again, and keep it close and conservative and win a close one.

I’m predicting a close game with Tebow leading a late comeback, probably off a Philip Rivers red zone turnover with the lead. That just seems like how this game is going to go right? Even if it doesn’t, we have 6 points of wiggle room to work with because of this ridiculous line. The Broncos are going to be able to control the clock with their run game so it’ll be close either way. Finally, this is the Broncos biggest game of the season. If they win this one, they’d have wins against all 3 of their division rivals since Tebow took over. They’ve also been preparing longer. They haven’t played since Thursday. Teams are 36-26 ATS the week after a Thursday game since 2008. Tebow and company are my pick of the week again.

Pittsburgh Steelers 31 Kansas City Chiefs 9

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -10.5 (-110) 3 units (-330)

The Steelers haven’t been very good under Mike Tomlin as big road favorites. They’re 4-9 ATS as road favorites of 5+ and 2-6 ATS as road favorites of 7+. However, the Steelers are coming off a bye here. They’ll be extra focused. Road favorites after a bye are a whopping 40-13 ATS since 2002, 9-4 ATS as road favorites of 7+. Besides, good teams (teams ranked in the top 16 of my power rankings) are 10-3 ATS after a bye this year.

I really can’t see this one being close. The Chiefs have gotten blown out by every good team they’ve played over the last 2 seasons. That’s not an exaggeration. They’ve played 12 .500+ teams since 2010. Of those 12 games, they’ve won 3 (week 1 Chargers last year, Jaguars with their 3^rd string quarterback last year, Raiders in Carson Palmer’s first start this year). That means they’ve lost 9. Of those 9 losses, 7 of them were by double figures, 6 of them were by 20 or more, and 4 of them were by 30 or more, including 3 this season. And with the exception of last week’s loss at New England, all of those games were with Matt Cassel at quarterback.

Tyler Palko is terrible. If he can only score 3 points against the Patriots, I don’t see any way that he gets out of double figures this week unless he gets a long touchdown run from one of his running backs, but Jamaal Charles is out, so that’s unlikely. A special teams score is probably his best shot to get into double figures, but the Steelers can score too.

On top of all this, teams, teams coming off a loss of 14+ on MNF are 26-46 ATS since 2002, 2-10 ATS after a loss of 28+. I think we’re looking at another Chiefs blow out, so even though the Steelers do struggle as road favorites, I feel comfortable betting on them, especially given how good road favorites are after a bye and how good the good teams in the league have been off a bye this season.

New Orleans Saints 34 New York Giants 20

Pick against spread: New Orleans -7 (-105) 2 units

Remember when the Giants were 6-2 and coming off a win against the Patriots, with a 2 game lead on the division? Well now they’re 6-4, tied with the Cowboys for first in the division, and only two games up on the Eagles and now facing another tough game in New Orleans. The Giants are very good at blowing divisional leads down the stretch and they seem to be up to more of their old tricks. Under Tom Coughlin, they’re 47-17 straight up in the first half of the season and 24-34 straight up in the second half of the season. Weeks 9-12 are typically their worst stretch, as they’re 10-19 ATS under Tom Coughlin in that stretch.

Meanwhile, the Saints are another good team off a bye. As I’ve mentioned before, good teams off a bye are 10-3 ATS this year. The Saints may not be road favorites, but non-divisional home favorites are 42-24 ATS after a bye since 2002, so that is similar. Here at home in the Superdome, I expect them to get a big home win here over the suddenly reeling Giants.

LV Hilton Super Contest: Denver +6, Detroit +6.5, Tampa Bay +3, Chicago +5, Pittsburgh -10.5 (24-31)