Tight End

Florida Atlantic

6-5 244

Draft board overall prospect rank: #136

Draft board overall tight end rank: #5

Overall rating: 61 (late 4th)

40 time: 4.51

3/29/11: Rob Housler was one of the big surprises of The Combine for me. After being listed at 6-5 215 by ESPN (very small for a tight end), Housler weighed in at 244. Turns out, after further research, ESPN was just wrong. Other sources had him in the 240s the whole time. What surprised everyone was his 4.51 40 and 37 inch vertical. He also impressed in the drills. This has moved him into early day 3 consideration.

Size and speed were his issues going into The Combine and he quelled those with his measurable. There’s never been any questions about his ability to catch the football. He caught 39 balls for 629 yards and 4 touchdowns last year for Florida Atlantic and 32 catches for 529 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2008. He redshirted in 2009, allegedly because the team had enough talent at tight end on the roster and wanted to preserve Housler for 2010. There is some mysterious surrounding that.

His problem is blocking. He’s not a good inline blocker and that’s coming from the tape, not just coming from his size. Part of the reason why I believed he could have been as skinny as he was is because he blocks poorly. However, he is a strong route runner and doesn’t drop a lot of passes. He’s a vertical threat and can move in the seam. He’s best suited to be an h-back, but I wouldn’t have a problem with him as my primary tight end regardless of scheme. He’s a little one dimensional, but that’s what specialty players like blocking tight ends are for.

NFL Comparison: Evan Moore

 

 

 

Tight End 

Arizona

6-6 258

40 time: 4.65

Draft board overall prospect rank: #38

Draft board tight end rank: #2

Overall rating: 80*

3/27/10: There were rumors that, after back surgery that caused him to miss all of last season, he was still not healthy. I think he proved that wrong because, simply put, you can’t run a 4.65 at 6-6 258 with a bad back. The injury, and the rust that comes along with not playing a whole year because of injury, are still issues, but this guy could have been a first rounder if he had a good year this year and there’s no doubting he could be a steal for a team in the 2^nd round. I think he’s clearly the 2nd best tight end in this draft class, at least in my mind, because of Dennis Pitta’s lack of elite athleticism and upside and Aaron Hernandez’s small frame and ability to run block.  

1/18/10: Surprisingly enough, the top two tight ends in this draft class didn’t play all season. Gronkowski has been amazing statistically in his career, but he hasn’t given scouts much of a statistical sample. He wasn’t a full time tight end as a freshman, he missed 3 games with mono as a sophomore, and back surgery cost him his entire junior season. However, what I do like about his state that is good going forward if his career 16 YPC, meaning he was extremely athletic and tough to bring down in the open field because its very unlike a quarterback is repeatedly throwing to a tight end 16 yards down field. Also 16 of his 75 catches in his short career were for touchdowns showing once again his physical dominance. Good ability in the open field and end zone dominance are a very good combination for a young tight end. He’s a big moving target at 6-6 270 and can run a 4.7 40 assuming his back is fully healed. He has football and sports in general in his blood. And he’s still 20 so his upside is huge. He would have been the top tight end in 2011 had he returned to school and been healthy so I’m a bit puzzled as to why he didn’t. This year he’s looking at anywhere from 2^nd to 4^th tight end off the board depending on how scouts see him bounce back from injury in workouts. That would mean 2^nd or 3^rd round range for him. 

Injury Update (1/15/10): Surprise, Gronkowski has declared as a 20 year old junior coming off of major back surgery. He’s extremely athletic, but major surgery plus limited playing experience in college (he also missed 3 games as a sophomore with mono) could drop him into the 3^rd or even 4^th round behind Jermaine Gresham, Dennis Pitta, and Aaron Hernandez.

Injury update: Gronkowski will miss the rest of the 2009 season after having back surgery which means that he’s most likely not declaring in the 2010 draft. Gronkowski is only a 20 year-old junior still and if he comes back and is his old self he could compete to be the top tight end off the board in 2011, but for now, I’m removing him from my 2010 scouting reports list and he will not be in my next edition of the big board top 100.  

            Rob Gronkowski is a terrific athlete. He played both football and basketball in high school and comes from an athletic background. 3 of his brothers played or are playing college sports, one of whom, Dan, was drafted by the Lions in this past NFL draft. His youngest brother Glenn is a senior in high school and likely will get an athletic scholarship. His dad played college football at Syracuse and both his grandfather and his great-grandfather were cyclists. His great-grandfather competed in the 1924 Olympics. As for Rob, he has the size at tight end that NFL offensive coordinators dream about. He’s 6-6 265 and just turned 20 in May. He has room to grow and should be able to put on about 10-15 pounds more of muscle. He compliments this size with very good hands and could play wide receiver if he was faster. He should run the 40 in the high 4.6s, low 4.7s. Despite his size, he’s not a very good run blocker. He takes weird approaches and gets bulldozed over by defenders and doesn’t hold his blocks long enough. His route running could use some work. He also tends to not run 100% out there at all times and relies on his natural athleticism, rather than having an NFL caliber work ethic. One of the things I like about him is his high touchdown rate, as well as his high yards per catch. In his two seasons at Arizona, 21.3% of his catches were for touchdowns, an amazing number even for a tight end. He also has averaged 15.96 yards per catch, which is very good for any receiver, especially a tight end. It has been statistically proven that pass catchers who have higher yards per catch and touchdown per catch rates have better NFL career. He is a very good YAC guy for a tight end, though I wouldn’t say he has break away speed. His size makes him tough to tackle in the open field. Still, all the athletic tools are there for him to be a very nice tight end in the NFL. If he’s coached well, he could be a Pro-Bowl caliber all-around tight end.

NFL Comparison: Marcedes Lewis

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

 

Defensive End/Rush Linebacker

North Carolina

6-4 265

Draft board overall prospect rank: #5

Draft board overall defensive end rank: #1

Overall rating: 96 (Elite)

40 time: 4.58

4/17/11: Cutting his 40 time to 4.58 was just the start. Quinn had an amazing workout after having to sit out all year. If he had played last year, he could have easily gone #1 this year. Scouts have concerns about his ability to drop into coverage, but he’s only 20 and he’s athletic enough to learn. 

3/16/11: Robert Quinn could have been the #1 overall pick in this draft if he wasn’t suspended for something stupid by the corrupt NCAA. He had 11 sacks as a 19 year old true sophomore in 2009 for North Carolina. Dez Bryant proved last year that you can miss an entire season (Bryant basically missed all of 2009) and still have a productive rookie year. Quinn’s stock will take a minor hit with the suspension and he will be the #2 defensive end to Da’Quan Bowers and could actually fall out of the top 10, but he has the upside to be the best end in this class.

He proved he was in shape at The Combine. He didn’t light the world on fire with his measurable like he was projected to but a 4.67 at 6-4 265 is still pretty impressive. I don’t think he’s got character problems with the suspension. He got suspended for taking “improper benefits.” There’s no such thing as “improper benefits” in the NFL. He’s got a good motor on the field and he’s a tough gritty kid who has survived a brain tumor that could have killed him.

Speaking of that brain tumor, that won’t be a long term issue. He’s a very good athlete with long arms, good quickness, and a very quick first step. He struggles a bit against the run for his size, but he’s got good chase speed and just needs some work with his technique. I don’t know if he’s an ideal fit for the 3-4, though teams will probably look at him as a 3-4 linebacker with his technique. I didn’t think Vernon Gholston was an ideal fit for a 3-4 coming out of Ohio State a few years ago and look at him now, though there were probably other issues in play there.

In a 4-3, he’s got room to add weight to his frame with his long arms. I think he could play into the 270s and still maintain his explosiveness, but he’d have a real problem dropping into coverage in the 270s. Not that he doesn’t already.

He’s not a fluid coverage player, another reason why I don’t think he fits in a 3-4 well. He has the athleticism to turn into a good 3-4 player, but it’s a big risk. Plus, you just shouldn’t use a top 10 pick on a player and convert him into a 3-4 linebacker if he hasn’t already had experience playing linebacker. The last team to do that was the Jets with Vernon Gholston. Larry English and Robert Ayers are also first round picks turned rush linebacker busts in recent years. Clay Matthews isn’t, but that’s because he played linebacker in college.

NFL Comparison: Will Smith

 

 

 

Some still believe Robert Meachem has #1 wide receiver upside, even though the former first round pick has never exceeded 45 catches for 722 yards and 9 touchdowns despite playing with one of the best quarterbacks in the league for 4 years. The Chargers seem to be one of those teams, paying him 25.9 million over 4 years with 14 million guaranteed to replace Vincent Jackson. They’re going to be very disappointed. It’s absolutely ridiculous that Meachem almost got what Steve Johnson got (5 years, 36.25 million, with 19 million guaranteed). In fact, he only got 5 million less in guaranteed money than Marques Colston. This was just a panic overpay by the Chargers.

Grade: F

 

 

The Colts are cutting Peyton Manning and likely not resigning Reggie Wayne and Jeff Saturday because they want to rebuild, and rightfully so. Given that, giving the 31 year old Mathis 4 years, 36 million, with 15 million guaranteed doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Mathis has never played in the 3-4 scheme they’re moving to and resigning him makes it harder to resign Pierre Garcon, who will be a valuable under 30 wide receiver going forward for Andrew Luck, and it almost means they probably have to trade Dwight Freeney, a superior pass rusher to Mathis. In fact, we don’t even know how good Mathis would be without Freeney opposite him. This doesn’t make any sense.

Grade: D

 

 

Quarterback

Baylor

6-2 223

Draft board overall prospect rank: #2

Draft board overall quarterback rank: #2

Overall rating: 98 (elite prospect)

40 time: 4.41

Games watched: TCU/Baylor, Texas A&M/Baylor, Oklahoma/Baylor

Positives

·         Amazing athlete

·         Holds high school state records in hurdling

·         Michael Vick esque showing at The Combine (including 4.41 40)

·         Intelligent kid who graduated Baylor in 3 years, working on masters

·         High character, well brought up

·         Excellent leader who led the rebuilding of a program

·         Charismatic face of the franchise

·         Cerebral quarterback

·         Deserving Heisman winner as a junior (over Andrew Luck)

·         Excellent production as a junior, better than Andrew Luck (72.4%, 10.7 YPA, 37/6)

·         Won a lot of shoot outs

·         Won a lot of games his team had no business winning

·         Defining win against Oklahoma

·         10-3 record as a junior

·         Amazing deep ball arm strength

·         Cannon arm

·         Can make every throw

·         Quick release

·         Succeeded in spite of a terrible offensive line (27 sacks in 2011)

·         Able to evade pressure and scramble for big gains (over 600 yards rushing in all 3 years as a starter)

·         Looks to throw first, run as a 2^nd option

·         3 year starter

·         Hard worker who improved his throwing ability mightily from 2010 to 2011

·         Gunslinger mentality (this can be a positive and a negative)

Negatives

·         Lack of Pro Style experience

·         Only one year of elite production

·         Was a mere 2^nd/3^rd rounder before this season (one year wonder?)

·         Lacks elite accuracy (in comparison to Andrew Luck)

·         Lacks elite decision making (in comparison to Andrew Luck)

·         A tad undersized at 6-2

·         Smaller frame (6-2 223) could lead to injuries at next level given how much he runs

·         Injury history (missed most of 2009, also suffered a concussion last season)

·         Needs to learn to feel the pressure better

·         Holds the ball weird

Comparison: Poor man’s Aaron Rodgers

I’m not saying Robert Griffin will be as good as Aaron Rodgers. I’m just saying that he reminds me of Aaron Rodgers. Watching him throw deep strikes to Kendall Wright reminds me of Aaron Rodgers do the same to Greg Jennings. Both have amazing deep accuracy 10-15+ yards downfield. Both are athletic and mobile, though Rodgers didn’t ever run a 4.4. They have similar size and like Rodgers, Griffin will have to learn to slide in the NFL to avoid injuries, but like Rodgers, Griffin is a smart kid so I doubt don’t his ability to do so. They even had similar stats this season as Rodgers won the MVP and Griffin won the Heisman.

Aaron Rodgers wasn’t the most polished prospect coming out of California and he fell to the 24th overall pick. Griffin won’t fall that far, but he isn’t the most polished prospect either, at least when you compare him to Andrew Luck. His pocket presence, accuracy, and decision making are things that need some work. They’re not bad, they’re just not elite.

Rodgers really benefited from 3 years on the bench behind Brett Favre. Griffin won’t get that luxury, but he probably won’t need it. I think Andrew Luck will be the better quarterback right away because he’s more polished and experienced in a Pro Style offense (he also has 2 years of elite production to Griffin’s 1). However, long term, it wouldn’t surprise me too much if Griffin ended up the better pro. Either way, I think both will be legitimate franchise quarterbacks in the NFL who deserve to go #1 and #2 overall.

When comparing Luck and Griffin, a frequent comparison is that Luck is the smart one and Griffin is the athletic one. While there’s some truth to this, I find this to be a lazy comparison. Yes, Luck is smarter. He called most of his team’s plays in the huddle or at the line of scrimmage in a pro style offense and got a 3.5 at Stanford. And yes, Griffin is more athletic. He was an all-state hurdler and had a Michael Vick esque Combine. However, both are extremely smart and athletic. Luck also had a nice Combine, while Griffin graduated from Baylor in 3 years and is pursuing a Masters.

The main difference I see between the two is that Luck has 2 years of elite statistical production in a Pro Style offense, while Griffin has 1 in a non-Pro Style offense. Griffin has elite arm strength and above average accuracy and decision making. Luck has above average arm strength and elite accuracy and decision making. Both are likable kids, winners, competitors with all the intangibles. Both will make great quarterbacks in the NFL.

 

Though this hurts Ray Rice’s fantasy value, Williams is a much needed veteran 2^nd back in town. They don’t have another proven back on the roster other than Rice. Williams is 34, but I think he has a little bit left in the tank and this isn’t an expensive deal at all, 2.5 million over 2 years.

Grade: A

Quarterback

Iowa

6-4 223

Draft Board Overall Prospect Rank: #83

Draft Board Overall Quarterback Rank: #6

Rating: 71 (mid 3rd)

40 time: 4.93

3/23/11: Stanzi once again didn’t look great throwing, this time at his Pro Day. He’s still a solid mid round prospect, but I’m moving him down a bit. 

2/17/11: Ricky Stanzi isn’t going to amaze you with physical tools, but he has experience in a Pro Style offense and statistically had a very good year last year. He completed 64% of his passes for an average of 8.7 YPA as a season and 25 touchdowns to 6 picks. He did this, however, with a lot of his help from his running game and defense.

Iowa frequently would run the I formation, with two running backs. This is a Pro Style offense and Stanzi has the experience taking snaps under center, dropping back, he’s got very refined footwork, a smart decision maker who makes good reads, but he didn’t ever prove he could carry a team. He has an above average arm when he does throw, but he rarely needs to throw far downfield because he’s frequently operating out of 2^nd and 3^rd and shorts, with the defense keying in on the running game.

That being said, his above average arm, mature decision making, refined footwork, and Pro Style experience are going to be intriguing to a team in the 3^rd round range. He doesn’t need as much work as a lot of the quarterbacks in this class and he’s a relatively safe pick at quarterback. He’s not a huge upside guy. I don’t think he’ll end up a franchise quarterback. He’s got the arm strength, but I don’t think he was tested enough in college and he did show some inconsistencies.

He threw 15 picks to 17 touchdowns in 2009. He improved his decision making from 2009 to 2010, but he still played fairly inconsistently. He was very inconsistent at the Senior Bowl as well, though many note the strong leadership skills he displayed in the game, leading a touchdown drive down 17 points.

NFL Comparison: Chad Henne

 

 

Cornerback

Stanford

6-3 194

Draft Board Overall Prospect Rank: #86

Draft Board Overall Cornerback Rank: #13

Rating: 70 (Late 3^rd)

40 time: 4.49

2/19/11: I was watching the Senior Bowl and I saw this one cornerback making play after play and my reaction was “who the hell is that kid?” Turns out he was Stanford cornerback Richard Sherman, a mid-week injury replacement. I was instantly intrigued. He looked like Chris Cook, another prospect I overlooked going into Senior Bowl week last year, that I eventually fell in love with as a prospect. Cook ended up going 34^th overall to the Vikings.

I had to do more research. I found out he was listed at either 6-2 or 6-3, and 190-195, a little skinny but definitely good size. He was a former wide receiver, who had only played the cornerback position for two years, which instantly reminded me of Sam Shields, the 2010 undrafted free agent, former wide receiver turned cornerback who only had one year experience at the position. He ended up being a huge part of the Packers Super Bowl run this year.

He’s certainly raw on tape, but I love his upside. For someone who has been playing the position for 2 years, he’s very instinctial. He doesn’t look like a former wide receiver, with the exception of his size and ball skills. He needs some work on technique. He had one huge mental blunder at the end of the half in the Senior Bowl that should have led to an allowed touchdown, but Andy Dalton underthrew a wide open Leonard Hankerson significantly (almost ended up a pick).

However, he could excel as a deep cover corner, an athletic cornerback with great and ball skills, and very instinctual play that’s only going to get better with more experience. He struggles against the run and needs to bulk up about 10 pounds without losing athleticism to become less of a liability against the run. I don’t think he can play free safety as some as saying he should. He has the height, but he lacks the run stopping and tackling abilities a safety needs. He has Antonio Cromartie type upside with his athleticism and ball skills, but his weaknesses as a press corner and as a run stopper.

NFL Comparison: Poor man’s Antonio Cromartie

 

 

This Seymour trade keeps getting worse and worse for the Raiders. Not only did they give up a first round pick to get him and give him roughly 12.5 million dollars in 2010 with the franchise tag, now they are giving him 30 more million dollars over the next 2 years, 22.5 guaranteed, which means that 4 years of Seymour (from ages 29-33) have cost the Raiders a first rounder and 50 million dollars. Seymour might have been top 5 at his position when he was 28, but now at age 31, he’s not and he certainly shouldn’t be paid like he’s top 5 at his position, in a contract that ends when he’s 33.

Grade: D