The Colts didn’t win 12 games for the first time since 2002, going 10-6, and like 2002, their season ended with a first round playoff loss to the Jets. Peyton Manning threw more interceptions than any season since 2002, had his lowest QB rating since 2002, and his lowest YPA since his rookie year. He completed 66% of his passes for an average of 6.9 YPA, 33 touchdowns to 17 picks. He turns 35 in March and all of a sudden, the talk of his decline is picking up.

However, I don’t blame 2010 on Peyton Manning. Manning played very well, considering his supposrting cast. For most of the season, he was on pace for 700 throws, which would break an NFL record. He finished with 679, but still, you can see how much this team relied on him with Joseph Addai hurt for most of the year and neither Mike Hart nor Donald Brown able to establish themselves on the ground at all. They ran 393 running plays, which means they passed a whopping 63.2% of the time.

Peyton Manning’s line didn’t do him any favors. He only took 16 sacks because he’s Peyton Manning, but his line still struggled. Manning has a knack for getting the ball off before the pressure gets to him, but this year he had less time than normal and that led to bad decisions downfield. On several of his interceptions, including ones against San Diego, Dallas, and New England, his arm was hit right before, alterring the angle and the tracjectory of the pass.

On top of all that, his receiving corps were banged up. Anthony Gonzalez and Austin Collie missed large parts of the season. Dallas Clark missed most of the season. That left them with Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Blair White, and Jacob Tamme. Wayne and Garcon dropped more passes than last year and Tamme, while he was statistically impressive, also had a bunch of drops.

Put it all together, and Peyton Manning was facing a defense that knew he was going to pass, having to get large chunks of yardage through the air because his ground game wasn’t doing anything, with a lin that couldn’t protect, and receivers who couldn’t catch. I say he played pretty well all things considered. His decline is minimal, if any.

That being said, he does turn 35 in March, and only have one Super Bowl win (over Rex Grossman). His career record in the playoffs is now 9-10 after losing to the Jets. That part of his legacy is in sever jeopardy. He will likely be able to break most of Brett Favre’s records in the regular season, but like Favre, it’s very likely he only has one ring when he calls it quits.

This team still has a lot of hope for next season though. They finished the regular season strong with 4 straight wins, to bounce back from a 6-6 start. They played a lot better once they got healthy and they were very close to beating the Jets in the playoffs. They are in significantly better shape than anyone else in their division so the division should still be there’s next year. Peyton Manning’s window is closing, but it hasn’t closed.

2010 Record: 10-6

Draft Position: 22

2010 Season Recap: Click Here

Offseason Needs: Click Here

Free Agents/Team Transactions: Click Here

Draft Grades: Click Here

Key Offseason Moves: None

Quarterback 

Texas

6-1 216

40 time: 4.77

Draft board overall prospect rank: #106

Draft board quarterback rank: #6

Overall rating: 69*

2/26/10: McCoy measured in at 6-1 at his weigh in. Might as well add that to the list of reasons why he won’t work out in the NFL, no experience in a pro style offense, a weak arm, and now a small frame.

1/16/10: A proven winner with a very weak arm by NFL standards. He’ll fit a spread style offense in the NFL well and to his luck, more and more teams are switching to the spread in the NFL, but he’s still not a good fit for a good majority of the NFL scheme despite his amazing accomplishments in college.

Update (11/2/09): Throws like a girl, but he’s a smart quarterback and extremely accurate. Reminds me of Trent Edwards in that respect.

            6/14/09: The first person people compare Colt McCoy to is Alex Smith, a former #1 pick turned bust. Like Smith did, McCoy plays in an offense in college where the majority of the snaps are taken from shotgun, and not from center. Like Smith did, McCoy is putting up amazing numbers in this gimmick offense. However, I like McCoy’s chances of being a successful NFL quarterback more than I like Smith’s. Smith was an absolute worst case scenario. When Smith declared, he was a junior who had started a mere 26 games. When McCoy declares, he will be a 5^th year senior who has started, barring injury, 52 games. Smith was drafted by a team that threw him out there in his first season, without giving him proper time to learn the Niners’ pro style offense. Smith was thrown out there to be the savior and had very little around him. Smith then had to learn a different offensive system every year because the Niners kept changing offensive coordinators. So you have Smith, a quarterback who had very little college experience, comes into an offense that he is not given proper time to learn, has mediocre talent around him, and then every summer, he has to learn a different offense, without fully mastering the whole taking snaps from under center thing, because of the coaching changes. McCoy runs a similar offense to Smith in college, yes, but that does not mean he’s doomed to be Smith. McCoy has more football experience. McCoy is a better learner than Smith. McCoy is not necessarily going to be drafted into the worst possible situation. In fact, and this was not the case when Smith came into the league, several teams actually use college style offenses in the pros, including the Chiefs and Broncos who use it the majority of the time. If I’m the Broncos, who could need a quarterback next season depending on Kyle Orton, how he performs and whether or not he leaves as a free agent, I consider McCoy early in the 2^nd round. McCoy comes in, with a great offensive line in front of him, a good running game to support him, good, possibly great receivers, depending on how the Brandon Marshall situation plays out, and has to only learn an offense similar to the offense he ran at Texas, and he’s got it made, he’ll do a great job. If McCoy gets drafted by someone like Seattle in the 2^nd round, comes in, sits 2 years behind Matt Hasselbeck, learns an offense, the west coast offense, that, while it is not a college style offense, is not that different. McCoy won’t have to master 5 and 7 step drops, only 3 step drops. McCoy starts in his 3^rd year, with what should be a good supporting cast, with full knowledge of the offense, and he can do a good job. However, say McCoy gets drafted by the St. Louis Rams. Unless the Rams somehow pull an NFL caliber starting quarterback out of their ass sometime between now and draft day 2010, McCoy is going to start some time in his first year. He will have a bad supporting cast and will probably, depending on how fast he learns, start playing without having mastered a pro style offense, with 3, 5, and 7 step drops. It could be Alex Smith all over again. Say he gets drafted by Cleveland. If Cleveland struggles, nothing will stop Eric Mangini from doing what he’s wanted to do since he got there, Brady Quinn, goodbye, Derek Anderson, goodbye, and take his own quarterback. If Mangini decides McCoy is that quarterback, that will be very bad. McCoy will likely have to start in his first year, if not right away. The running game is a mess, his receivers could be a big mess depending on how the Braylon Edwards contract negotiations go, the defense is as ugly as Al Davis and just as old. Colt McCoy likely then would become Alex Smith. Basically, in the right situation, McCoy could be a solid NFL quarterback, maybe even better than solid. In the wrong situation, like the one Smith was put into in 2005, McCoy could be the next Alex Smith.

NFL Comparison: Tyler Thigpen

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

Quarterback

Nevada

6-5 233

Draft Board Overall Prospect Rank: #81

Draft Board Overall Quarterback Rank: #5

Overall Rating: 72 (mid 3^rd)

40 time: 4.53

3/23/11: Kaepernick threw very well. His footwork and his delivery have come a long way from The Senior Bowl, where, at least in the game, he looked very raw. He cemented his status as a 2^nd round pick in my opinion. 

2/19/11: 3 players have ever rushed for 20 touchdowns and passed for 20 touchdowns in the same college season, Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, and Colin Kaepernick. The reason Kaepernick is not being talked about as a 1^st round pick like Tebow was and Newton is, first was his level of competition. Nevada might have beaten Boise State, but they still played in the WAC, which is not the same as playing in the SEC like Tebow and Newton. Kaepernick also is a rawer prospect. He has a wild delivery like Tebow, but not Tebow’s hustle and heart. He played in a very similar scheme to Cam Newton, but his arm isn’t as big as Newton’s, his delivery needs more work than Newton’s, he doesn’t quite have Newton’s speed, and didn’t win like Newton did.

Kaepernick’s stock is on the rise after The Senior Bowl. He was very raw in the game, failing to see open targets and opt to run outside the pocket on almost every snap, but he did a good job of throwing on the run and keeping his eyes downfield. His pocket footwork needs help and he has a tendency to throw off his back foot. His delivery isn’t quite the same as Tebow’s. Some scouts have even said that it reminds them of Philip Rivers and that they wouldn’t touch it. He had the strongest arm at the Senior Bowl, not saying much, but it’s not elite and his short accuracy and footwork need a lot of work.

Kaepernick is probably best off going 2^nd or 3^rd  round to a team with a low upside starter in place, like say Buffalo will Ryan Fitzpatrick, Cincinnati with Carson Palmer, Seattle with Matt Hasselbeck, Jacksonville with David Garrard, or Arizona, assuming they sign someone like Marc Bulger or Donovan McNabb. He’s not ready to play right away, but with the right coaching, I could see him taking off and being a good starter in his 2^nd or 3^rd year.

NFL Comparison: Poor man’s Josh Freeman