New Orleans Saints 2013 NFL Season Preview

July 16, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Saints, Uncategorized

Introduction

How valuable is Head Coach Sean Payton? Well, if you look just at records, you could say he’s worth 6 wins. Last season, the New Orleans Saints went 7-9 and missed the playoffs, a year after a 13-3 regular season. A lot of people blamed this on Sean Payton’s absence with a yearlong suspension, but Payton comes from an offensive background and the offense was not the problem in 2012. In fact, they ranked 3rd in the NFL in scoring behind only New England and Denver, but unlike the Patriots and the Broncos, who both earned 1^st round byes, the Saints were sitting at home at the end of the regular season because of their defense. They allowed more yards than any team in NFL history and their scoring defense ranked 31st as only the Oakland Raiders allowed more points.

The first move made to change things this off-season was to fire defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. While Spagnuolo is a Super Bowl winning defensive coordinator, winning a ring in 2007 with the Giants, his scheme never really fit in New Orleans. His scheme is largely reliant on a strong defensive line and being able to get to the quarterback with 4 guys, something the Saints just didn’t have the personnel to do in 2012. In 2011, they had a league average defense under disgraced defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, who is one of the most blitz happy coordinators in NFL history, sending an extra man over 50% of the time.

After firing Spagnuolo, the Saints immediately decided they wanted to switch up the defensive scheme entirely and targeted defensive coordinators with 3-4 backgrounds. This move made a lot of sense for 3 reasons. The first is simply that when you were as broken defensively as the Saints’ were in 2012, any change can’t possibly hurt. The second reason is that eventual hire Rob Ryan, while he runs a different base scheme than Williams, is very Williams-esque with the amount of blitzes he calls, which, after not using a single draft pick on a pass rusher until the 6th round, the Saints will largely rely on to get pressure in 2013.

The 3rd reason is that several players in their front 7 are more natural fits for the 3-4 than the 4-3, which will help compensate for the lack of added pass rushers this off-season. Defensive end Cameron Jordan, a former 1st round pick in 2011, played in a 3-4 in college and has largely looked like a fish out of water at 4-3 end in the first 2 years of his career, playing the run well, but struggling mightily to get pressure.

Martez Wilson was a collegiate linebacker and will benefit from moving back to the linebacker position this year, after an attempt to convert to the defensive line in 2012. Junior Galette, meanwhile, should be able to start at rush linebacker in a 3-4. He’s been the Saints’ most efficient pass rusher over the past 2 seasons, but his inability to stop the run has forced him into a situational role. That won’t be as big of an issue in a 3-4.

In addition to changing up the defensive scheme, the Saints spent a large amount of their off-season effort on the defensive side of the ball, adding Kenny Vaccaro in the 1^st round and signing Keenan Lewis from the Steelers. They also signed Victor Butler from the Cowboys, one of the best reserve rush linebackers in the league over the past few years, and he looked poised to breakout in his first chance as a starter, but he unfortunately tore his ACL this off-season. Still, their defense should be better than it was last year and overall having Sean Payton back will help, though he alone won’t solve all their issues.

Quarterback

There was concern about how Brees would do without Sean Payton last season, but he did fine, completing 63.0% of his passes for an average of 7.7 YPA, 43 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions, while leading the NFL’s #3 ranked scoring offense. He’s now thrown for 5000 yards in 3 of the last 5 seasons, including the past 2, the first quarterback in NFL history to do so. Since 2008, he’s completed 2114 of 3134 (67.5%) for 24730 yards (7.9 YPA), 190 touchdowns, 83 interceptions. He’s led the #1, #1, #11, #2, and #3 offense in those 5 seasons respectively and should be able to lead a top-3 offense again this season. He’s up there with Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

One of the very valuable things about Drew Brees is his quick release and pocket presence. Only two quarterbacks were sacked on a lower percentage of pressured drop backs last season, 13.0%. In 2011, he once again ranked 3rd, getting sacked on 13.9% of pressured drop backs. He also ranked 3rd in 2009 and 2010 and 2nd in 2008. For this reason, the Saints felt they could afford to part with Jermon Bushrod, their long time left tackle, who commanded a 5 year, 36 million dollar contract this off-season from Chicago.

While left tackle is a very important position, Brees was the one making Bushrod look good, not the other way around. Jermon Bushrod was someone I felt would get overpaid and sure enough he did. Bushrod has made 68 starts over the last 4 seasons, including the post-season, and has allowed just 20 sacks, including 11 in his last 3 seasons, but he’s also allowed 205 combined hits and hurries. He’s really a middling talent that Drew Brees made look better than he is. He was ProFootballFocus’ 44th ranked offensive tackle last season.

The Saints will try to replace him with either Charles Brown, Terron Armstead, or Jason Smith. Brown was a 2^nd round pick in 2010, but he’s played just 542 snaps in his 3 years in the league, primarily on the right side, and he hasn’t done a great job. Brees might be able to make him look passable, however. Armstead, meanwhile, is a 3^rd round pick rookie, with tremendous athleticism, but his small school background may mean he takes a while to adjust to the NFL.

Smith is the dark horse candidate. The 2^nd overall pick in 2009, Smith was a massive bust and is on his 3^rd team in 3 years, getting traded from the Rams to the Jets for Wayne Hunter last off-season and then being cut by the Jets this off-season. He missed significant time with injuries in 2009 and 2011 and in his only full year as a starter in 2010, he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 51^st ranked offensive tackle out of 78 eligible and he doesn’t have much experience on the left side. Last year, as a pure backup, playing only 265 snaps, he actually graded out very well. He came cheap and he’s only 27, but more likely than not he’ll be the backup right tackle this season.

Even if he does start the season as a backup at right tackle, he could break into the starting lineup at some point because that’s also a position with issues. After a breakout season in which he was ProFootballFocus’ 4^th ranked offensive tackle in 2011, Zach Strief graded out slightly below average this season and missed time with injury. He’s always had issues staying healthy in his career, so there may be opportunity here for Smith. Overall, the tackle positions are both concerns, but Brees will make them look better than they are.

Things are better on the interior of the offensive line, however. Jahri Evans is one of the better guards in the league. He’s been a top-10 guard on ProFootballFocus in 4 of the past 5 seasons, grading out 8^th last season. Ben Grubbs, meanwhile, was even better, grading out 5^th. Also one of the top guards in the league, he’s graded out in the top-16 in each of the last 4 seasons, topping out at 5^th last year. They are one of the better guard combos in the NFL.

In between them at center is Brian La Puente, who had a breakout year last year, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd ranked center last season, after ranking 12^th in 2011, his first year as a starter. He’s on his way towards becoming one of the best centers in the NFL and this is arguably one of the best interior offensive lines in the NFL. That, and Brees’ pocket presence, will help make up for their weaknesses at tackle.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The Saints’ strong interior offensive line really helps their running game. They were ProFootballFocus’ 5^th ranked run blocking team last year and I don’t see any reason why things would change in 2013. Mark Ingram will once again be the lead back and hoping to get things together in his 3^rd year, after going in the 1^st round in 2011. He’s averaged just 3.9 yards per carry since and had just 278 carries, struggling through injuries. He could breakout this season though and the Saints seem confident in him, trading away their top insurance option in Chris Ivory.

Pierre Thomas is the primary backup and has done a good job, rushing for 4.8 yards per carry in his career, though he’s maxed out at 147 carries. He’s also been a big part of the passing game as well, catching 188 passes in 66 games in the past 5 seasons. Darren Sproles has also been a very big part of the passing game in two seasons with the Saints and he’s essentially more of a slot receiver than a running back. He’s had 135 carries and 161 catches in the last 2 seasons and is a threat to score at any time, scoring 17 touchdowns. He gives them a great, safe check down option (with 1544 yards after the catch in the last 2 seasons) and adds another level to their explosive offense. On top of that, Jed Collins is one of the best fullbacks in the NFL. He was ProFootballFocus’ 9^th ranked fullback in 2012 and 2^nd ranked in 2011.

Grade: B+

[yard_barker]

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Marques Colston gets a reputation for being injury prone and he has had a bunch of knee surgeries, but he’s only missed 10 games in 7 seasons and he’s been nothing if not reliable. With the exception of 2008 (when he played a career low 11 games), he’s caught 70 passes for 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns in every season of his career. Last season, he once again had big time production, catching 83 passes for 1132 yards and 10 touchdowns while not missing a game. He’s only 30 and he has great chemistry with Drew Brees so he should once again be Drew Brees’ top receiver.

Jimmy Graham was the Saints’ leading receiver in 2011, catching 99 passes for 1310 yards and 11 touchdowns, but injuries led to a league leading 15 drops in 2012 and he “only” caught 85 passes for 982 yards and 9 touchdowns in 15 games in 2012. He should get back over 1000 this season though. Lance Moore also had 1000 yards last year, catching 65 passes for 1041 yards and 6 touchdowns. He’s an underrated receiver who has the talent to be an incredibly productive receiver when he has an opportunity and the starting job opposite Colston is all his, but he’s had a history of injuries, so that’s a concern.

Moore will move to the slot on passing downs and young receiver Joe Morgan will play outside as the #3 wide receiver. Morgan caught just 10 passes last season in his first season of significant action as the 4^th receiver, but 8 of them went for 20 yards or more and he had 379 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, doing so on just 188 routes run. He has a lot of development to do, but he should be more efficient as the #3 wide receiver than Devery Henderson was last year.

Henderson was ProFootballFocus’ 103^rd ranked wide receiver out of 105 eligible last year, dead last in terms of pass catching. He caught just 22 passes for 316 yards on 44 attempts on 472 pass snaps and dropped 5 passes as well. That’s bafflingly poor for someone with Drew Brees throwing him the football and a big part of the reason why the 31-year-old is still unsigned as of this writing. Brees should once again have one of the better receiving corps in the game to complement his own abilities. They’ll put up a ton of points once again.

Grade: A-

Defensive Line

As I mentioned in the opening, there are several players who are going to be better fits for the Saints’ new 3-4 defense. Cameron Jordan is one of those players. He was a 1^st round pick in 2011 and played in a 3-4 at California. At 6-4 287, he was an odd fit for the 4-3, but the Saints picked him anyway and stuck him at left end. As you could expect, he didn’t get very much pass rush at all.

He managed just 1 sack, 6 hits, and 18 hurries on 318 pass rush snaps in 2011, a 6.8% rate and graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 50^th ranked pass rusher out of 62 eligible 4-3 ends. In 2012, he had 8 sacks, 5 hits, and 32 hurries on 605 pass rush snaps, a 7.4% rate and graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 57^th ranked pass rushing 4-3 defensive end out of 64 eligible. However, he showed great ability against the run, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 7^th ranked run stuffing 4-3 end in 2011 and 3^rd ranked in 2012. He also led the defensive line with 1059 snaps played in 2012. He’ll be a much better fit as a 5-technique defensive end and he still has 1^st round talent. He should be a real asset for them as an every down player.

Opposite him, Akiem Hicks will get the first crack at the starting job. Hicks was a 3^rd round pick in 2012 and graded out positively on 383 snaps as a rookie. The 6-5 318 pounder is versatile and can play both five-technique and nose tackle and will probably be primarily an early down player. Tom Johnson will come in on passing downs, which are his specialty. Last year, he struggled against the run, but is good enough as a pass rusher to make up for that, with 2 sacks, 4 hits, and 11 hurries on 229 pass rush snaps, a 7.4% rate. Veteran Kenyon Coleman, who is in his age 34 season, will also be in the mix for snaps. He graded out positively on 167 snaps last season with Dallas. Brodrick Bunkley could also potentially play 3-4 defensive end.

Bunkley will serve primarily as the nose tackle, however. He should also be a better fit for the 3-4 because he was too one dimensional to see serious snaps in the 4-3 last year, playing just 369 snaps. He graded out well above average as a run stopper, but couldn’t get any pass rush. In 2011, he was actually the highest rated run stopping defensive tackle on ProFootballFocus and he should play well in a pure run stuffing role on the nose. Overall, I like this defensive line a lot better than last year’s.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

I also like their pass rush a lot more thanks to an expected breakout year of Junior Galette. In 2011, he graded out as an above average pass rusher on ProFootballFocus and really shined down the stretch when given more playing time. He had 4 sacks, 11 hits, and 19 hurries on 339 pass rush snaps, a 10.0% rate. His biggest weakness was the run, as he graded out below average as a run stuffer (and below average overall because of it), as could be expected of a 255 pound defensive lineman.

In 2012, he was expected to have a bigger role as the 3rd defensive end behind Cameron Jordan and Will Smith, both coming off of rough 2011s rushing the passer. However, because he missed 4 games with injury, he actually played fewer snaps than he did in 2011, playing just 301 snaps. 225 of these snaps were rushing the passer, but he managed an impressive 5 sacks, 6 hits, and 19 hurries on them, a 13.3% rate.

Among 4-3 defensive ends who played as many snaps as he did, only Brandon Graham, Cameron Wake, and Charles Johnson had higher pass rush efficiencies (sacks + .75 hits + .75 hurries/pass rush snaps). While he still struggled against the run (part of the reason why he didn’t get more playing time), he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 19th ranked overall 4-3 defensive end, 14th ranked overall in terms of pass rush grade.

As a 3-4 rush linebacker, his lack of size and ability against the run won’t be as big of an issue and his natural pass rush ability will be allowed to shine. Galette should have a breakout year. He could easily have double digit sacks if he plays enough snaps. If he did that, he’d be the first Saints player to do so since 2009. The Saints obviously believe in him, locking him up to a 3 year deal this off-season after originally slapping a 2nd round tender on him as a restricted free agent. Given that the deal is worth less than 2 million per year, the Saints figure to be rewarded for their foresight.

Opposite him, however, things aren’t as bright thanks to Victor Butler’s torn ACL. Will Smith is expected to be the starter here, but he’s only on the roster because he took a massive pay cut. Once their top pass rusher, Smith has aged fast and managed just 7 sacks, 7 hits, and 23 hurries on 586 pass rush snaps last year, a pathetic 6.3% rate. He ranked 61^st out of 62 eligible both overall and in terms of rushing the passer last year. On top of that, he is going into his age 32 season so he’s not getting any younger and at 6-3 283 he’s not an ideal fit as a rush linebacker either, even if he does lose some weight, which he’s trying to. He played the run pretty well last year, grading out above average in that aspect, so he might be able to contribute a little bit in that aspect, but he won’t give them any pass rush.

They may take Smith out in sub packages and replace him with Martez Wilson, who is the other rush linebacker on that side. Wilson was a collegiate linebacker at Illinois, drafted in the 3^rd round in 2011, but because of his size (6-3 254), strong blitzing ability, and the Saints’ lack of pass rush, they converted him to the line for his 2^nd season in 2012. He didn’t play the run well, but he produced well as a nickel rusher with 3 sacks, 5 hits, and 16 hurries on 206 pass rush snaps, an 11.7% pass rush rate. Back as a linebacker this year, he should do well in a situational role behind Smith, but that side of the pass rush is still a concern.

Inside, two linebackers who the Saints signed to long term deals before last season will start. Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne were both talented linebackers in Atlanta and Seattle respectively before coming to New Orleans. In 2011, Lofton graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 18^th ranked middle linebacker with the Falcons and Hawthorne graded out as the 20^th overall middle linebacker with the Seahawks. Lofton got a 5 year, 27.5 million dollar deal from the Saints, but struggled, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 43^rd ranked middle linebacker out of 52 eligible with the Saints.

Hawthorne, meanwhile, only played 325 snaps at his new outside linebacker position after signing a 5 year, 19 million dollar deal and was ProFootballFocus’ 32^nd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker out of 40 eligible. The Saints will be hoping both can bounce back at their new 3-4 middle linebacker spot. For each of them, it should be a more natural spot in terms of their abilities. There’s some bounce back potential here.

If one of them doesn’t bounce back, they do have Jonathan Vilma as insurance. He didn’t play well either last season, grading out 32^nd out of 43 eligible 4-3 outside linebackers and he is going into his age 31 season, so there isn’t much bounce back potential here (he was 49^th out of 51 eligible middle linebackers in 2011). However, he graded out better than Hawthorne and he has experience in both 3-4 and 4-3 schemes and playing both inside and outside. He’s their best coverage middle linebacker so he should at least have a situational role in coverage.

Grade: B-

[google_ad]

Secondary

The Saints’ secondary was by far their biggest issue last season, which is saying a lot. Sure they couldn’t get after the quarterback or stop the run, but their secondary got torched on a very regular basis and they were arguably the worst secondary in the NFL. The Saints’ graded out as ProFootballFocus worst coverage team, but it wasn’t even just that.

Not only were they blowing coverages on a regular basis, but they couldn’t tackle either, a big part of the reason why the Saints ranked dead last in the NFL, allowing 5.2 YPC (in addition to being tied for last allowing 8.1 YPA). They missed 76 tackles and allowed 19 runs of 20+ or more. Only the Colts allowed more than those 19 and only the Falcons allowed more than the 7 runs of 40 yards or more the Saints allowed. Only the Patriots and the Buccaneers allowed more than the 66 pass plays of 20 yards or more that the Saints allowed and no one allowed more than the 14 pass plays of 40 yards or more they allowed.

As you could expect, their safeties were most to blame. Roman Harper and Malcolm Jenkins missed 32 tackles between them, most among any safety combo in the NFL. Harper and Jenkins graded out as ProFootballFocus 2^nd worst and worst ranked safeties in the NFL. Harper missed fewer tackles between the two, “only” 12, and he graded out only slightly below average against the run, but he was horrific in coverage, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ lowest ranked coverage safety. He allowed 46 catches on 65 attempts for 663 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 3 penalties. He allowed 150 more receiving yards than any other safety in the NFL and also allowed the most catches.

Jenkins, meanwhile, was worse against the run, missing 20 tackles, 4^th most in the NFL among players at any position, but he also struggled in coverage, allowing 29 catches on 43 attempts for 373 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 3 passes and committing 5 penalties. In order to shore up this area, the Saints drafted Kenny Vaccaro in the 1^st round. He’ll come in during nickel packages initially, moving tweener Jenkins to the slot cornerback spot. He could easily win a starting job outright and turn Jenkins into solely a slot cornerback.

Jenkins has a chance to bounce back in the contract year of the 2009 1^st round pick’s 5-year deal. Before last year, he habitually graded out as an average player and improved pass rush and front 7 play could really help him. Harper, however, is unlikely to. An overrated player who is a box safety at best, he was ProFootballFocus’ 78^th ranked safety out of 87 eligible in 2011 and has been getting torched in coverage since signing an extension before the 2011 season.

He might be a little bit better in Rob Ryan’s new defense because he’ll be able to blitz more and not have to cover as much, but he’s way too stiff in coverage to be an asset to them. He can’t play in reverse at all. Heading into his age 31 season, things are unlikely to get much better this season and after restructuring his contract this off-season, the writing is on the wall for him. He’s unlikely to be back in 2014.

The other off-season addition was Keenan Lewis, who signed a 5-year 26 million dollar deal coming over from Pittsburgh. Lewis played well in Pittsburgh last year, allowing 59 catches on 112 attempts for 694 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while deflecting 16 passes and committing 8 penalties. However, it was his only year as a starter and the track record of cornerbacks leaving Pittsburgh’s system isn’t very good; just ask William Gay and Bryant McFadden.

Lewis will play opposite Jabari Greer, who was the only starter in this secondary who played alright last season, allowing 43 catches on 74 attempts for 626 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 9 passes and committing 3 penalties. He did miss 12 tackles of his own, but he was so much better than everyone else in this secondary. He’s always been a solid starter and going into his age 31 season they’ll need him to keep that up.

The biggest offender at cornerback for the Saints last year was Patrick Robinson, who allowed 61 catches on 109 attempts for a ridiculous 1071 yards and 9 touchdowns (most in the NFL), while picking off 3 passes and deflecting 14, committing 8 penalties in the process. He was ProFootballFocus’ 89^th ranked cornerback out of 113 eligible. He’ll be their 4^th cornerback this season, which is good news for Saints fans.

Also good news for Saints fans is that Corey White and Johnny Patrick also won’t see much action this year. White is their 5^th cornerback at best and Patrick is in San Diego. White graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 100^th ranked cornerback last year as a 5^th round rookie, allowing 35 catches on 45 attempts for 422 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He deflected just 2 passes and also missed 8 tackles.

Patrick, meanwhile, only played 218 snaps last year, but if he had been eligible, he would have been ProFootballFocus’ 102^nd ranked cornerback, despite his limited playing time. He allowed 24 catches on 35 attempts for 339 yards, 5 touchdowns, no interceptions, and 1 deflection. He missed 4 tackles and committed 2 penalties. Vaccaro’s and Lewis’ presence will help, but it’s going to be tough to count on big things from either and this is still a very poor secondary, arguably one of the worst in the NFL still.

Grade: C

Head Coach

Sean Payton is one of 6 Head Coaches in the NFL with a Super Bowl ring and the Saints appeared to miss him when he was gone last season, but the offense did fine without him, scoring the 3^rd most points in the NFL and he is really fortunate to have Drew Brees. He’s also fortunate to have a very strong group of offensive assistant coaches, but he’s still one of the best Head Coaches in the NFL.

Grade: A-

Overall

Sean Payton’s return will help and their defense has some added talent and will fit Rob Ryan’s 3-4 defense better, but their defense will struggle too much for this team to be among the best teams in the NFL. They’ll once again be one of the best offensive teams in the country, possibly even better than last season, but their defense will probably be ranked somewhere in the early-to-mid-20s. They’ll win some shoot outs and lose some shoot outs, but they should be able to make it back into the playoffs. With the exception of last year, there are 5 teams every year that make the playoffs that didn’t the year before and I think the Saints are one.

They should win all 3 of their home divisional games, but games in Atlanta and Carolina will be tough, so I have them at 4-2 in the division. At home outside of the division, they host Arizona, Miami, Dallas, Buffalo, and San Francisco. With one of the best home field advantages in the NFL, those first 4 should be pretty easy wins and while San Francisco will be tough, that’s definitely a winnable game. On the road outside the division, they go to Chicago, New England, Seattle, St. Louis, and the Jets. Games in New England and Seattle will be really tough and St. Louis and Chicago aren’t pushovers either. I give 3 losses in those 5 games, one in the 5 home non-divisional games, and 2 in the division, putting them at 10-6, which sounds about right.

Projection: 10-6 2^nd in the NFC South

[switch_ad_hub]

Carolina Panthers 2013 NFL Season Preview

July 16, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Panthers, Uncategorized

Introduction

After a 4^th straight loss (including 3 straight by a combined 11 points), Cam Newton stood at the podium and said something had to change and that he was sick of losing close games. The team was 1-5 after coming into the season with high expectations and Newton’s career record was pushed to 7-15, with a ridiculous 9 losses by a touchdown or loss (as opposed to just 1 win by a touchdown or less). Newton was criticized by the media for doing this rather than taking responsibility upon himself and to make matters worse, long time GM Marty Hurney was fired the following week, which Newton was blamed for.

That being said, Hurney’s firing was a year and a half overdue. He should have been let go following the Panthers’ 2-14 season in 2010. And while he didn’t take responsibility upon himself in the press conference, he was a noticeably better quarterback from that point on. Following yet another excruciating loss (by 1 point to the Bears, blowing a 19-7 4^th quarter lead in the process), the Panthers won 6 of their final 9 games to finish 7-9. Among those 6 wins were victories over division winners Washington and Atlanta, as well as a victory in New Orleans against the Saints.

Newton was noticeably better in the 2^nd half of the season, completing 58.4% of his passes for an average of 7.9 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, all while rushing for 394 yards and 4 touchdowns. That was opposed to 57.0% completion, 8.1 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions with 347 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns in the 1^st half of the season. Heading into his 3^rd season in the league, it’s very possible he’s turned a corner, which would be a very good thing for this team. In their final 8 games, they averaged 26.0 points per game, which would have been tied for 8^th in the NFL last season. That’s no fluke, as they ranked 5^th in the NFL scoring 25.4 points per game in 2011. At the very least, Newton’s early sophomore slump should be a thing of the past and this should be one of the better offensive teams in the NFL.

The other big turnaround for this team was an improved defense. In their final 12 games of the season, they allowed just 21.2 points per game, which would have been 12^th in the NFL over the course of the whole season. That was opposed to 27.3 points per game allowed in the first 4 games of the season and 26.8 points per game allowed in 2011. The obvious change from week 4 to week 5 was moving eventual Defensive Rookie of the Year Luke Kueckly to middle linebacker and giving him an every down linebacker role, but you can’t give him all the credit. Young players like Greg Hardy also broke out as the season went on defensively.

For those reasons, I like their chances of carrying their strong finish into 2013. They also have a few other things working in their favor. For one thing, they were better in DVOA that their record suggested, which is usually a sign of an impending improvement. They ranked 13^th in DVOA, which grades teams on a per play basis against their level of competition. In terms of weighted DVOA, which puts greater weight on more recent games (games later in the season), they were 9^th.

Part of the reason for this was their poor record in close games, as they went 1-7 in games decided by a touchdown or less. In the past 2 years, they are a ridiculous 2-12 in games decided by a touchdown or less. This type of thing tends to even out in the long run and if they can go .500 in those types of games this season, it will go a long way towards improving their record. Contrary to popular belief, there’s really no such thing as being “bad at winning close games.” You can’t even blame Cam Newton, who has completed 76 of 139 (54.7%) for 1074 yards (7.7 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while rushing for 105 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries in the 4^th quarter when the game is within 7 points. Those numbers aren’t much worse than his career numbers. It’s just been bad luck.

This team still has flaws, but if they defense plays at the level they played after week 4 last season and Cam Newton continues to play the way he did down the stretch last year, this team can compete with any team in the league. Almost every year there’s a team that goes from last place to first place and a team that goes from out of the playoffs to a 1^st round bye and the Panthers are as good a pick to do so as any team in the NFL.

Quarterbacks

I went into depth about Newton in the introduction. He had a bit of a sophomore slump to start last season, but for the most part, he’s led a very explosive offense in his first 2 years in the NFL and should continue to do so in his 3^rd year in the league and could easily have the best season of his young career. If he had managed a .500 record in close games in his career, he would be 18-14 in the last 2 seasons with not always such a great defense supporting him. With an improved defense supporting him this year, he can definitely take this team to the playoffs and contend for the division title.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

One of the big differences between the 2011 Panthers’ offense and the 2012 Panthers’ offense was the running game, which didn’t function nearly like it did the year prior. In 2011, they ranked 3^rd in the NFL in rushing yards with 2408 and 1^st in yards per carry with 5.4. Cam Newton rushed for 706 yards and a quarterback record 14 touchdowns on 126 carries and also opened things up for DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, who each averaged 5.4 yards per carry on 155 and 142 carries respectively.

In 2012, Newton continued to do his part, rushing for 741 yards and 8 touchdowns on 127 carries, leading the team, but DeAngelo Williams looked old and Jonathan Stewart was hampered with injuries. Williams did average 4.3 yards per carry on 173 carries, but only because of a random 210 yard/21 carry performance in week 17 against a laughable New Orleans defense. Before that, he was averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. Going into his age 30 season this year, things aren’t going to get better.

Jonathan Stewart, however, could get better. Injuries limited him to just 3.6 yards per carry and 93 carries, but he’s only 26 and had only missed 2 games in the prior 4 years, when he averaged 4.8 yards per carry. Provided he’s healthy, he should be able to be a solid starting running back this season and keep the aging Williams off the field as much as possible. Mike Tolbert, meanwhile, rushed for 3.4 yards per carry on 54 carries while scoring 7 touchdowns as a short yardage back, which is impressive considering his role. He should be able to do the same again in 2013. Tolbert also is a good pass catching, leading Carolina backs with 27 catches and serving essentially as a move tight end in certain situations.

Grade: B

[google_ad]

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Greg Olsen was a 1^st round pick in the 2007 NFL Draft and finally came into his own last season, catching a career high 69 passes for a career high 843 yards and 5 touchdowns, serving as a very good secondary receiver for Cam Newton. Steve Smith remains the #1 receiver, catching 73 passes for 1174 yards and 4 touchdowns, but it’s unclear how much longer he can do that for, as he’s going into his age 34 season.

Over the next 2-4 years, Smith can be expected to go from top flight receiver to complementary player to gone. That’s just what happens to receivers around this age. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37.

The Panthers need someone else to step up at wide receiver, but they don’t have a lot of options. Their other starting receiver is Brandon LaFell, a marginal pass catcher, who is among the best run blocking receivers in the NFL, for what that’s worth. He’s a borderline starting receiver at best though and will never be a long term #1 wide receiver.

Their other options aren’t much better. David Gettis hasn’t been able to stay healthy, playing just 17 snaps since a moderately impressive 37 catches for 508 yards and 3 touchdowns as a rookie on a stagnant offense in 2010. Domenik Hixon is only a veteran depth receiver and Ted Ginn is only a return man. This is going to have to be an area they’ll address in the off-season through the draft and for now they’ll have to hope Smith holds up another season as the #1 guy. Some decline is to be expected, however.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The offensive line is also a bit of a concern for the Panthers on offense. They graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 27^th ranked pass blocking offensive line and ranked 29^th in pass block efficiency, though they did grade out 10^th in run blocking. Still, left tackle Jordan Gross was the only offensive lineman to grade out positively and injuries were a major issue. In an effort to, at the very least, shore up their offensive line depth, the Panthers drafted Edmund Kugbila in the 4^th round, a versatile small school offensive lineman.

Gross was very good at left tackle, the most important position, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 20^th ranked offensive tackle, though he’s heading into his age 33, which is a concern. Opposite him, Byron Bell was the starter at right tackle. Like most of the offensive line, he could be upgraded. Amini Silatolu and Geoff Hangartner will play the guard positions, though Kugbila could always force himself into the starting lineup here. Silatolu struggled mightily as a 2^nd round rookie last year, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 77^th ranked guard out of 81 eligble. He could easily be better in his 2^nd year in the league this year, but there are no guarantees.

Hangartner also struggled last year, playing both guard and center. He was ProFootballFocus’ 25^th ranked guard in 2011, grading out positively, so maybe if he can play a full season there again, the 31-year-old can be a marginal starter again. The reason he had to play center last year was an injury to Ryan Kalil. Kalil was a top-7 center on ProFootballFocus from 2009-2011, but played just 5 games thanks to injury last season. He’ll be back this season and, heading into his age 28 season, I don’t see why he can’t be one of the better centers in the NFL again. That will be a boost to this offensive line. Garry Williams and Jeff Byers played significant snaps on the offensive line last year thanks to injury, but both really struggled. They’ll go back to reserve roles this season.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

Between Charles Johnson and 2012 breakout star Greg Hardy, the Panthers have arguably the best pass rushing duo in the NFL. Among 4-3 defensive ends, they ranked 6th and 9th overall respectively on ProFootballFocus. Johnson is the better pass rusher, with 14 sacks, 11 hits, and 49 hurries on 519 pass rush snaps, a 14.3% rate. Only Cameron Wake graded out higher among 4-3 defensive ends as pass rushers. Hardy, meanwhile, is the better overall player, ranking in the top-10 as a pass rusher and run stuffer, something only Cameron Wake and Michael Bennett can also say. As a pass rusher, he had 13 sacks, 12 hits, and 35 hurries on 462 pass rush snaps, a 13.0% pass rush rate.

Making them even more valuable is the fact that both have the size to line up at defensive tackle on passing downs, which allows them to essentially get 3 defensive ends on the field at the same time, much like the New York Giants. Frank Alexander is that 3rd end. As a 4th round pick rookie, he was very poor against the run. Despite playing very limited run snaps as a nickel rusher, 197, he graded out 57th among 62 eligible 4-3 defensive ends against the run, but he had 3 sacks, 6 hits and 26 hurries on 360 pass rush snaps, an impressive rate of 9.7%.He fell to the 4^th round because of a heart ailment, but I graded him out as a 2nd rounder on tape and it’s very possible that teams around the league, including the Panthers who traded up for him, did the same purely on tape. Going into his 2nd year in the league, he should continue to improve and be a very good 3rd defensive end for them.

While they had very good defensive ends last season, defensive tackle was a major issue for them and they addressed it in the 1^st and 2^nd rounds of the draft, adding Star Lotulelei and Kawaan Short. Those two will rotate with Dwan Edwards, who was a below average player as a starter last year, playing better as a pass rusher than as a run stopper. He’ll be better in a situational role after playing in 718 snaps last season. Sione Fua, Andre Neblett, and Ron Edwards were all among the worst defensive tackles in football last year, grading out 83^rd, 81^st, and 70^th among 85 eligible defensive tackles. Only Fua remains on the roster and the 2011 3^rd round pick might not make the final roster.

Short and Lotulelei will also add to their pass rush. It’s very conceivable they are even more improved over last season, when they were ProFootballFocus’ 9^th ranked pass rush team and ranked 9^th in the NFL with 39 sacks. They should also be much improved over their 18^th place finish against the run in terms of YPC allowed. This is one of the better defensive lines in football.

Grade: A

Linebackers

One of the reasons why they should be improved against the run in 2013, aside from the improved defensive tackle position, is that they’ll have a full season of Luke Kuechly at middle linebacker. The fact that they ranked 18^th against the run despite having Kuechly shows just how bad their defensive tackles were and this year and I could see them top-10 in that aspect easily.

Kuechly is a little overrated based purely on his tackles total. Of his 161 tackles, only 67 of them were within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage on first down, 6 yards on 2^nd down, and the full distance on 3^rd and 4^th down. I argued that Casey Hayward and Bobby Wagner were more deserving as Defensive Rookie of the Year, but he was hardly bad. Despite only playing 12 games at the position, he was ProFootballFocus’ 7^th ranked middle linebacker and in his 2^nd season in the league and his 1^st full as a middle linebacker, he’ll be even better.

Veterans Thomas Davis and Jon Beason will play on the outside. Both have had major injury issues of late. Davis has missed 24 games in the last 3 seasons and has torn his ACL 3 times, but he actually played pretty well last season, missing just 1 game and excelling in coverage, grading out positively overall. He’ll probably be the every down linebacker this year with Beason focusing on just playing the run on two-downs in base packages. Since signing a massive extension in the 2011 off-season, Beason has played just 5 games in the last 2 seasons and is an even bigger injury concern than Davis, who at least was healthy last year. The Panthers precarious cap situation and the cap penalty that would come with cutting him are the only reasons why he’s still on the roster. He should be alright as a run stuffer as long as he stays healthy.

Grade: B+

[yard_barker]

Secondary

The secondary is the Panthers’ weakness on defense, but their front 7 play, their pass rush, and their run stopping ability should be able to make up for that. Captain Munnerlyn will continue to serve as the #1 cornerback. He doesn’t look the part at 5-8 and he’s been pretty mediocre in the past, but he actually graded out as a league average player last season, so we’ll see if he can keep that up. An improved front 7 should help make sure that happens.

Josh Thomas and Josh Norman will serve as the other two cornerbacks. Thomas was the better of the two grading out only slightly below average in his first season of significant action after going in the 5^th round in 2011. Norman, meanwhile, struggled mightily in 2012, grading out as ProFootballFocus 94^th ranked cornerback out of 113 eligible, but he was only a 5^th round rookie, so he could be better in 2013. As is the case with the rest of the secondary, he’ll be helped by this pass rush.

Haruki Nakamura will man one safety spot. In his first year of significant action, he graded out as an average safety, though he was benched mid-season. He looks like the undisputed starter right now as they don’t have any real competition for him, so we’ll see how he holds up. Charles Godfrey will be the other safety. He’s been horrific in the past two years, ranking 79^th among 87 eligible safeties in 2011 and 82^nd among 88 eligible in 2012. He’s the weak link in an overall weak group. It’s something they’ll have to mask defensively, but they were able to do so last year so I don’t see why they can’t continue to do so this year. Defensively, it looks it be an even more talented group than the one that finished last year so well.

Grade: C+

Head Coach

When the Panthers were 1-6 last year, Ron Rivera’s name was tossed around as someone who could be fired, but the Panthers opted to part ways with long time GM Marty Hurney instead and after Rivera got them to 7-9 at the end of the season, they brought him back for his 3^rd season. I argued against Rivera being fired the whole time because doing so would probably lead to a new coaching staff, including a new offensive coordinator, which would be unnecessary change that could hurt Cam Newton’s development.

Of course, Offensive Coordinator Rob Chudzinski is gone anyway, taking the Head Coaching job in Cleveland, so they’ll have to hope that internal hire Mike Shula can pick up where he left off. He was their quarterback coach for the past 2 seasons so the familiarity is there with Newton. Defensive Coordinator Sean McDermott turned things around down the stretch last season after a miserable start to his tenure in Carolina (which followed a miserable tenure in Philadelphia). Ron Rivera also comes from a defensive background.

Grade: B

Overall

New Orleans and Atlanta are seen as the two teams that will be competing for the NFC South title, but Carolina swept the season series against New Orleans last year and came within a field goal of doing the same to Atlanta, including a late season win against the Falcons which they led 23-0 before the Falcons scored some garbage time points. New Orleans will be better than last season, but so will Carolina, for reasons I’ve gone into detail about. Even though Atlanta had the #1 seed in the NFC last year, Carolina was still better in weighted DVOA than them, as the Falcons ranked 13^th.

I think they’ll win 4 or 5 divisional games. Outside the division, they host Seattle, the Giants, the Jets, St. Louis, and New England. New England will be the toughest opponent, but the other 4 are very winnable, even Seattle considering their road struggles. Even the New England game is winnable. They should win 3 or 4 of those games, which puts them at 8-3 through the 11 mentioned games. A trip to San Francisco will be tough, but games in Arizona, Miami, Buffalo, and Minnesota aren’t bad.

Overall, I have them winning 12 games, which is a stretch and will take some luck, but they have enough talent that it’s doable and as I said in the opening, almost every year there’s a team that goes from last place to first place and a team that goes from out of the playoffs to a 1^st round bye and the Panthers are as good a pick to do so as any team in the NFL. This is one of the most underrated teams in the NFL and a team I’ll bet often early in the season. Getting more than a field goal at home with them against Seattle week 1 at a 1 PM ET start is awfully appetizing.

Projection: 12-4 1^st place in NFC South

[switch_ad_hub]

Cleveland Browns 2013 NFL Season Preview

July 16, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Browns, Uncategorized

Introduction

The Browns have been the picture of turmoil since returning to the NFL in the 1999 season. In that time period, they’ve had 7 different Head Coaches, 5 different general managers, 3 different principal owners, 18 different starting quarterbacks, and 0 playoff wins. Just their luck, new owner Jimmy Haslam, who cleaned house upon arrival firing both Head Coach Pat Shurmur and GM Tom Heckert, is being investigated by the FBI for fraud and is also facing at least 18 other civil lawsuits. This isn’t expected to affect his status for this season, but all bets are off for 2014 and beyond. It’s very possible they could once again be under new ownership in 2014 and that the new owner would clean house once again and fire Head Coach Rob Chudzinski and GM Michael Lombardi.

By that point, the Browns could also be bringing in a new quarterback as well. It’s very possible that the only thing stopping them from adding a new starter this off-season was the complete dearth of starting caliber quarterbacks available. They were known to have interest in Alex Smith, but were never able to get a deal done. However, next year is a much better quarterback class and Brandon Weeden could very well be on his last chance. He looked incredibly raw as a rookie, which is fine for an ordinary rookie quarterback, but Weeden turns 30 this season. He’ll be going into his age 31 season next off-season and whoever is in charge at that point will have no ties to him regardless. He’s older than Aaron Rodgers and if he doesn’t improve drastically this season, this could be it for him. A ridiculously short sighted draft pick at the time is looking even worse now.

It’s a shame because the Browns do have some really good non-quarterback talent. They actually have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and their front 7 is very loaded. When not getting suspended for Adderall use, cornerback Joe Haden is among the best in the NFL at what he does. However, they just have too many holes and the quarterback position is just too important for the Browns to compete this year, especially in their tough division. They look destined to be bottom feeders once more.

Quarterback

I mentioned Brandon Weeden in the introduction, I had a 5^th round grade on him coming out of Oklahoma State. I thought he was too raw, too inaccurate, and too prone to being flustered under pressure. Age out of the equation, I thought he had 2^nd round talent, meaning that he had developmental talent after a year or so maybe, but at age 28 on draft day, he didn’t have two years to wait.

Weeden looked every bit that raw quarterback as a rookie, completing just 57.4% of his passes for an average of 6.6 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. He looked worse than Ryan Tannehill and Tannehill is 5 years younger and has time to develop. Weeden will have to hope that a year under his belt and a new offense which does fit him better under Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner can develop him in a hurry. He’ll open this season as the starter because they don’t have another option, but don’t be surprised if Jason Campbell takes the job from him quickly (becoming the 19^th Browns quarterback since 1999) and keeps it for the rest of the season.

Campbell really didn’t look good in about 6 quarters of work in place of an injured Jay Cutler in Chicago last year, but he was facing two of the best defenses in the NFL last season in San Francisco and Houston in those two games and he had very little offensive supporting talent around him. When last we saw him before Chicago, he went 11-7 with an Oakland team that hadn’t won more than 5 games in a season since 2003 and would go 8-18 in their next 26 games without him. However, heading into his age 32 season, Campbell, even best case scenario, is not a long term solution at all. They’ll be looking quarterback early in the draft in 2014.

Grade: C-

Running Backs

Running backs going in the top-3 is incredibly rare these days (it’s happened just 3 times since 1998), but the Trent Richardson selection did make sense at the time for the Browns. After Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin, there wasn’t another surefire pick in the draft besides Matt Kalil, who didn’t really fill a need. Taking Richardson, despite the correct devaluation of the position, made as much sense as taking Justin Blackmon or Morris Claiborne did in that scenario. Of course, hindsight will tell us that Russell Wilson was the obvious selection there, but there was no way of knowing that then.

However, Richardson struggled as a rookie through injuries, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry on 267 carries, though he did catch 51 passes and score 12 times on an overall miserable offense. Now, Richardson is struggling through injuries once again this off-season. Injuries are often a concern for running backs and are largely responsible for the devaluation of the position. It usually just isn’t worth the risk using a 1^st round pick on a running back because of injuries. Reggie Bush and Ronnie Brown were the other two top-3 pick running backs and both had their careers derailed by injuries.

Richardson certainly has the talent to be one of the best running backs in the NFL, but the question isn’t with his talent. It’s whether or not he can stay healthy. If he can’t, it would be up to Montario Hardesty to carry the load. The 2010 2^nd round pick has never shown anything more than backup caliber talent thus far in his career so the Browns really are hoping Richardson can play all 16 games and play them well.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

One reason Trent Richardson could be particularly scary in Cleveland if he can stay healthy is the strength of this offensive line. Everything their inconsistency at the quarterback position takes away from Richardson’s running room, the offensive line gives back. Though they were only ProFootballFocus’ 14^th ranked run blocking offensive line last year, they have a chance to be even better this season and they did grade out as their 5^th ranked pass blocking offensive line, while ranking 3^rd in pass block efficiency. As it stands right now, I don’t see a hole on this line.

At left tackle, everyone knows about Joe Thomas. I don’t think he’s well rounded enough to be considered the best left tackle in the NFL or anything as his run blocking is only average, but I think he’s the best pass blocking offensive tackle in the game. In terms of purely pass protection, he’s ranked 7^th, 3^rd, 6^th, 1^st, and 2^nd respectively in the last 5 seasons and has never missed a start. He’s also been a top-11 overall tackle in each of those 5 seasons.

Opposite him, the Browns have Mitchell Schwartz, a very good right tackle as a rookie last year, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 23rd ranked offensive tackle and 8^th ranked right tackle. Like Thomas he was much better in pass protection than run blocking, actually grading out below average as a run blocker, but he was 15^th in pass protection and committed just 5 penalties all season. Going into his 2^nd season in the league, I don’t expect anything different from the 2012 2^nd round pick out of California.

At center, the Browns have another former 1^st round pick in Alex Mack, who graded out 10^th overall last season on ProFootballFocus among centers, the 4^th straight year he’s been in the top-10, which he’s done every year with the exception of his rookie year. He’ll be flanked by Jason Pinkston at left guard and John Greco at right guard.

Pinkston, who struggled mightily as a 5^th round rookie in 2011, was off to a solid start to his 2012 season before a blood clot ended his season. Going into his 3^rd year in the league, he is still a bit of a mystery, but you can do a lot worse than him as your worst offensive lineman. When he got hurt last year, he was replaced by veteran journeyman John Greco, who will start at right guard this season.

Every chance Greco has gotten, he’s shown himself to be a very good guard. A 3rd round pick of the Rams in 2008, Greco graded out positively on ProFootballFocus on 174, 279, and 153 snaps from 2008-2010 as a valuable reserve of the Rams. The Browns acquired him for a late round pick after the 2010 season, but he didn’t really play much in 2011, playing 52 offensive snaps and primarily being a special teamer. However, in 2012, when Pinkston went down, Greco got his first chance to be a full-time starter, starting the final 10 games of the season.

Greco made the most of his opportunity, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 19th rated guard, with no one playing fewer snaps than him and grading out higher. He did his best work as a run blocker, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 7th best run blocking guard, but also held his own as a pass protector, allowing just 3 sacks, 7 hits, and 7 hurries. He was a big part of the reason why the Browns averaged 4.19 yards per carry behind left guard, as opposed to 3.86 yards per carry elsewhere.

Heading into his age 28 season in 2013, Greco is expected to be week 1 starter for the first time in his career, sending long-time turnstile Shawn Lauvao to the bench where he belongs. This is a very, very solid group that could really be an asset if they ever had a quarterback to block for. In the meantime, they’ll continue to make Brandon Weeden’s life as easy as possible (important because Weeden completed just 41.8% of his passes under pressure last season) and do solid work in the running game.

Grade: A-

[google_ad]

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Not only will he miss 2 games, but this could put a developing young receiver behind the 8-ball when he does return for week 3 and beyond. At this point in his career, Gordon is a great deep ball receiver and little else, playing inconsistent overall, but he could really shine in Rob Chudzinski’s offense. More likely, he’ll need another year of developmental and a new quarterback to reach his potential, provided, of course, that the oft troubled receiver can keep his nose clean.

After him, things in the receiving corps are pretty depressing. Greg Little, a 2011 2^nd round pick, played better down the stretch, but only by default as he caught just 11 of his first 29 targets, including 6 drops. In the final 8 games of the season, he did catch 31 passes for 398 yards and 2 touchdowns with just 3 drops, so perhaps he’s finally turned a corner going into his 3^rd year in the league. He’s an unexplosive athlete, however, who is among the worst in the NFL in yards per reception and yards per reception after the catch. His future is as a #2 possession receiver at best.

Travis Benjamin could get the start in Gordon’s absence. Benjamin is really just a return man and caught just 18 passes as a 4^th round pick rookie last season. He might have some upside as a receiver, but I doubt it. The other option is veteran David Nelson, who is coming off a torn ACL. He caught 61 passes for 658 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2011 with the Bills, but wasn’t very explosive even before the injury.

Davone Bess, meanwhile, will man the slot, which is his specialty. He’s caught 321 passes in the last 5 seasons in that role, but like Little and Nelson, he isn’t a deep threat. Benjamin and the suspended Gordon are their deep threats and their lack of speed in their receiving corps is an issue considering Weeden is best when throwing downfield and considering that’s what Rob Chudzinski wants to do. I bet the Browns wish they hadn’t essentially traded Julio Jones for Phil Taylor, Greg Little, Brandon Weeden, and Owen Marecic.

Their best deep threat until Gordon returns might be tight end Jordan Cameron. Cameron is very inexperienced having caught just 26 passes in his 2 years in the league since being drafted in the 4^th round in 2011, but the starting job is finally his with Ben Watson gone and while he might still be raw, his freakish athleticism and pass catching ability is exactly what Chudzinski and Turner want out of their tight ends. The 6-5 254 pounder ran a 4.59 with a 37.5 inch vertical at The Combine and was a basketball player at USC, much like Jimmy Graham and Antonio Gates at their respective alma maters. He’s reportedly been great this off-season and he has potential for a breakout year, though, of course, he’ll be handicapped by his quarterback play.

Grade: C

Defensive Line

When new Browns GM Michael Lombardi was with the NFL Network on Path to the Draft, he frequently mentioned how, when he was an NFL GM, he wished he could take a pass rusher with every pick of the draft. Given that, it’s no surprise that Lombardi spent most of the team’s off-season effort on upgrading the pass rush, signing two big time free agents in Desmond Bryant and Paul Kruger, while using the 6^th overall pick on Barkevious Mingo. This was a big time need for a team that had ranked 26^th on ProFootballFocus in terms of rushing the passer. Now, they arguably have one of the deepest front 7s in all of football.

They are going to be going to a 3-4 defense this season, with the hire of new Defensive Coordinator Ray Horton. 2011 1^st round pick Phil Taylor will line up at nose tackle, but he’s not just a true nose tackle. He can move around a little bit too and may stay on the field for some passing downs. However, run stopping is his specialty, as he ranked 4^th among eligible defensive tackles in terms of run stop percentage (percent of snaps in which a player recorded a tackle without 4 yards of the line of scrimmage on 1^st down, 6 yards on 2^nd down, and the full distance on 3^rd or 4^th down) last seasonHow. Of course, he did only play 273 snaps thanks to a torn pectoral that cost him the first half of the season. Going into his 3^rd year in the league, he should have a very good year.

Ahtyba Rubin and Desmond Bryant will start at five-technique defensive end around Taylor. Rubin has experience in a 3-4 defense, playing in the Browns’ old 3-4 before 2011, but he played the nose tackle position and in his final year in that role he was a train wreck. He’s been better in the last 2 years at 4-3 defensive tackle and might be a better fit at five-technique than nose tackle. He doesn’t get a lot of pass rush and I don’t expect that to change with his new position, but he holds up against the run well enough to make up for it and grade out above average in each of the last 2 seasons.

Bryant, meanwhile, played well for the Raiders on 645 snaps last year, taking over as a starter week 10 after Richard Seymour got hurt and grading out as ProFootballFocus’ #7 defensive tackle, excelling as a pass rusher and holding his own against the run. In 2011, he graded out slightly above average on 596 snaps, including 9 starts, and in 2010, he was very good on 333 snaps. He’s played both defensive tackle and defensive end for the Raiders in his career and at 6-6 300, he seems like a natural fit at 3-4 end for the Browns.

Billy Winn and John Hughes will serve as the top reserves on a very deep defensive line. They were 6^th and 3^rd round picks respectively in 2012 and both played extensive snaps as rookies last year. Winn, the 6^th rounder, was a steal at that point as many expected him to go in the 3^rd or 4^th round and he looked the part as a rookie, grading out as an average starter on 721 snaps, 2^nd on the defensive line. He could start on a lot of teams. Hughes, meanwhile, wasn’t nearly as good. He was a reach in the 3^rd round and ironically was projected to go around the 6^th round. He didn’t even plan on having a draft day until the 3^rd day of the draft, not expecting to be drafted before the 4^th round. He looked the part as a rookie, struggling mightily on 530 snaps. He’s more suited for a reserve role.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Browns needed to find an upgrade opposite Jabaal Sheard this off-season and they found two, adding Paul Kruger, and Barkevious Mingo, who will form a potentially deadly trio with Sheard. Sheard will probably begin the season as the starter over the rookie Mingo, who is expected to be used in an Aldon Smith type role initially, only rushing the passer.

Sheard has never played in a 3-4 in his career and might not be a natural fit. He rushed the passer well as a 2^nd round rookie in 2011, but didn’t play the run well. Last year, it was the complete opposite. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 4^th ranked run stopping defensive end and their 5^th worst pass rushing defensive end. As a base player, his job will be primarily to stop the run and then get after the quarterback, with Mingo coming in during obvious pass rushing situations. Mingo is incredibly raw, but he seems well suited for this role as a rookie and the 6^th overall pick has immense upside, especially in a 3-4, if he can ever put it all together.

Paul Kruger will probably lead the trio in snaps, though he too will rotate. The Browns took a big chance giving Kruger a 5 year, 40.5 million dollar contract this off-season. He played incredibly well down the stretch for the Ravens last season, particularly rushing the passer with 15 sacks, 17 hits, and 43 hurries on 528 pass rush snaps, a ridiculous 14.2% rate. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd ranked pass rushing 3-4 outside linebacker behind only Clay Matthews and he led the position in pass rush efficiency.

However, most of that production came in the 2^nd half of the season, once Terrell Suggs returned and started taking some of the pressure off of him. The 14 sacks, 14 hits, and 33 hurries he had in his final 12 games were incredibly impressive, but the 1 sack, 3 hits, and 10 hurries he had in his first 8 were not. He didn’t bring Suggs to Cleveland with him. He also has just 8 career starts under his belt and didn’t even start in the Super Bowl, actually only playing 22 of 62 snaps for matchup purposes. He’s also very poor against the run, grading out 24^th among 33 eligible at his position in that aspect.

All that being said, he was very good as a situational player even before this season and it’s very possible he just turned a corner down the stretch last year. In that case, the Browns stole a very talented pass rusher from a division rival. It was a risk, but it could pay off. Either way, I like the talent the Browns have at rush linebacker. Quentin Groves is also in the mix, coming over from Arizona as a solid reserve pass rusher.

Moving inside, D’Qwell Jackson remains a fixture. He’s played in both a 3-4 and a 4-3 in his career and that’s going to be incredibly valuable. However, he’s an overrated volume tackler who has graded out negatively in two of the last three full seasons he’s been healthy, excluding a two year stretch from 2009-2010 where he missed 26 games. That includes last year, when he ranked 41^st out of 53 eligible at his position, managing only 42 of his tackles for a stop and only 31 of those for a run stop as he ranked 41^st out of 50 eligible in run stop percentage. He struggled mightily against the run, though did well in coverage.

Craig Robertson will move inside and play next to Jackson. A coverage specialist linebacker in their 4-3 last season, Robertson struggled, especially against the run, and was ProFootballFocus’ 35^th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker out of 43 eligible. I don’t know if he’ll be much better inside in a 3-4. The inexperience bunch of LJ Fort, Tank Carder, and James-Michael Johnson could also be in the mix for snaps. This is easily the weakest part of the Browns’ front 7, but they should get after the quarterback plenty.

Grade: B+

[yard_barker]

Secondary

As the Browns will struggle will struggle to pass the ball on offense, they will struggle to cover the pass on defense, which is an issue considering this is a passing league. Luckily they have a good pass rush to bail them out somewhat. Joe Haden is what’s good about this secondary. Last season, he ranked 20^th on ProFootballFocus among cornerbacks, which was actually the lowest he’s been in his entire career. A 4 game suspension for Adderall had something to do with that. In 2011, his only full season, he ranked 13^th, while he ranked 6^th in 2010, despite being a rookie and not taking over as a starter until mid-season. He’s one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL and as long as he stays on the field, he should show that this season, especially with an improved pass rush.

However, an asset like Haden becomes less valuable if you can just throw away from him and opponents will have success picking on other defensive backs. The Browns will miss departed free agent Sheldon Brown. While the 34-year-old remains unsigned as of this writing, he actually played very well for them as a starter last year, allowing just 52 completions on 90 attempts for 655 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 10 passes, and committing 9 penalties. For his efforts, he was ProFootballFocus’ 21^st ranked cornerback, one spot below Haden.

He’ll be replaced in the starting lineup by 3^rd round rookie Leon McFadden, which should be a recipe for disaster. McFadden may be a good player long term, but it’s hard to count on much positive from him as a rookie. Buster Skrine, meanwhile, will serve as the 3^rd cornerback. He struggled mightily last year, allowing 68 completions on 93 attempts for 751 yards and 5 touchdowns, without intercepting a pass. He did deflect 10 passes, but also committed 9 penalties.

Moving on to safety, the Browns, for some reason, cut functioning starter Usama Young, even though his salary was reasonable. They also cut backup Eric Hagg and will go into the season with a pair of very unproven 2012 undrafted free agents competing for the free safety job in Johnson Bademosi and Tashaun Gipson. They both played nondescript last year in limited action, Bademosi playing 24 snaps and Gibson 377. 6^th round rookie Jamoris Slaughter could even be in the mix, which shows how desperate things are. Young, meanwhile, was ProFootballFocus 12^th ranked safety last year and making a very cheap salary going into his age 28 season. I still don’t get that move.

TJ Ward at strong safety is a very solid starter as well, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 6^th ranked safety last season. The 2010 2^nd round pick has an injury history dating back to his days at Oregon though and he missed half of the 2011 season, so that’s worth noting and a concern here. He’s much better against the run than in coverage anyway. Overall, it’s a weak coverage group.

Grade: C+

Head Coach

Rob Chudzinski was a surprise hire for the Browns as Head Coach, but the last time they were even respectable on offense, he was their offensive coordinator. He started his career at the University of Miami as a graduate assistant after being a 3-year starter at tight end and then became tight ends coach, where he helped develop first round picks Bubba Franks, Jeremy Shockey, and Kellen Winslow. He then followed Butch Davis to Cleveland, where he served in the same role, along with being the offensive coordinator. After Davis was fired, Chudzinski caught on in San Diego as a tight ends coach, working alongside Norv Turner and working with Antonio Gates, who was probably the best tight end in the NFL at the time.

He then returned to Cleveland as offensive coordinator for two years under Romeo Crennel and then when Crennel was let go, he went back to San Diego as tight ends coach, but earned the title of assistant Head Coach from Turner. He spent the last 2 seasons as the offensive coordinator in Carolina under Ron Rivera, a former San Diego defensive coordinator, and helped develop Cam Newton. Now he’s back in Cleveland again with Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator. He has a background in making offenses successful and developing tight ends (add Kellen Winslow and Greg Olsen to the aforementioned group), but it’s tough to grade first time Head Coaches and I like to temper my expectations.

Grade: B-

Overall

In the toughest division in the AFC, the Browns should once again be bottom feeders. It’s going to be very tough to win more than one game against Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore and they could lose all 6. Outside the division, they host Buffalo, Miami, Detroit, Jacksonville, and Chicago. Buffalo, Miami, and Jacksonville aren’t tough games and the other two aren’t impossible either, so they should win about 3 of those. They also go to Minnesota, the Jets, Green Bay, New England, and Kansas City. I think they’ll win one of those games and probably win around 5 games on the season, which is where they’ve been stuck lately. Fortunately, it’ll be a good draft class to have a top-10 pick in and maybe they can finally fix this quarterback thing.

Projection: 5-11 4^th in AFC North

[switch_ad_hub]

Cincinnati Bengals 2013 NFL Season Preview

July 15, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Bengals, Uncategorized

Introduction

It must be frustrating to be a Bengals fan. They entered the off-season off of back-to-back post-season appearances and among the most cap space in the NFL, yet not only did they do nothing to really improve their roster, they also didn’t lock up any of their young talent long term, with the exception of right tackle Andre Smith. Geno Atkins, Michael Johnson, and Carlos Dunlap are all very talented young defensive linemen and a big part of the reason why this team had the 8^th best scoring defense in the NFL, allowing 20.0 points per game, and all 3 are set to hit free agency next off-season and they don’t appear close on extensions with any of them as once again Owner/GM Mike Brown has tightened the purse strings.

This wouldn’t be as big of a concern if it wasn’t something that had been a habitual problem of the team in the past or if they didn’t have a very talented young team that needed to be locked up. They’ve done an excellent job of drafting over the past few years, turning the team around for a mediocre veteran team to an exciting young team, but that will all be for naught if they can’t keep them long term. Atkins, Johnson, and Dunlap aren’t the only ones. What happens when AJ Green and Andy Dalton need to be locked up? It’s a concern.

As for the 2013 version of the Cincinnati Bengals, not much has changed. They still have a good defense and a decent young quarterback who has shown a startling inability to beat playoff teams. If you count the game against the Ravens’ backups week 17 of 2012 as a non-playoff team, Dalton is 18-4 against non-playoff teams in his career, but just 1-11 against playoff teams, including two post-season early exits.

That one win was against the early season Redskins, who lost left tackle Trent Williams in that game. In those 12 games against future playoff teams, Dalton was 250 of 445 (56.2%) for 2934 yards (6.6 YPA), 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. In the other 22 games, he’s 420 of 679 (61.9%) for 4518 yards (6.7 YPA), 35 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions. This is a concern considering the Bengals have to face 7 teams who made the playoffs in 2012, along with Pittsburgh (twice), Chicago, and what should be an improved Detroit team.

Even on a strong defense, they still have holes at safety, linebacker, and lack depth at defensive end, all areas they could have addressed in free agency, but didn’t. They retained Robert Geathers to rotate with Dunlap and Johnson even though he offers absolutely nothing as a pass rusher and doesn’t do enough as a run stopper to make up for it. They retained Rey Maualuga at middle linebacker even though he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ worst middle linebacker in the league last year. And at strong safety, it looks like it will be an uninspiring battle between career backup Taylor Mays and 3^rd round pick rookie Shawn Williams. Their 20 million dollars in remaining cap space is burning a hole in Mike Brown’s pocket right now.

Quarterback

I discussed Andy Dalton’s inability to beat playoff teams in the introduction. He’s really an average quarterback as he beats the teams he’s supposed to, but no one else. You can say it is way too early in Dalton’s career to put him under this kind of a microscope, but, remember, this has never been a kid with a huge ceiling. He doesn’t have amazing physical gifts and you have to wonder how much better he’s going to get. Obviously I’m not saying bench him or anything, but the media gives him way too much credit. He’s an overrated player. Over the next few years, the discussion around him should shift from how great he is to “can you win a Super Bowl with Andy Dalton?”

Grade: B-

Running Backs

One thing I liked about the Bengals’ off-season was that they did attempt to add more playmakers around Dalton, spending both their first two draft picks on offensive skill position players. Their 2^nd round pick was Giovani Bernard out of North Carolina, who was the first running back off the board. Bernard is not a full package back at just 5-8 202, but we’ve seen plenty of backs go in the 2^nd round or later with similar billings and go on to be to very good running backs, including Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew. It’s unclear how much he can contribute as a rookie, however, as neither of those backs were every down guys until after their 1^st season, once they had more time in an NFL weight room.

At the very least, he makes a lot of sense as a complement to incumbent starter BenJarvus Green-Ellis because he does everything well that BJGE doesn’t. There is absolutely nothing flashy about Green-Ellis’ game. On 788 career carries, he has just 3 rushes for longer than 34 yards, but also just 3 fumbles. He also doesn’t contribute anything in the passing game with just 48 career catches.

He’s good in short yardage, but he doesn’t do much other than run through holes that are blocked. He averaged just 2.1 yards per carry after contact last season after doing the same in 2011, both among the worst in the league, and he also was under 4 yards per carry for the 2^nd straight season. All in all, he was ProFootballFocus’ 55^th ranked running back out of 59 eligible and the need for another running back was obvious. Bernard might be raw, but he can serve as an explosive complement and contribute in the passing game, catching 92 passes in just 2 seasons at North Carolina. He’s got much more talented than BJGE, who I don’t consider to be a starting caliber running back, so he should eventually take over as the starter and feature back, but he may take a year or two.

Grade: C+

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Before taking Bernard in the 2^nd round, the Bengals spent their first round pick on Tyler Eifert, to give Andy Dalton someone else to throw to. The fit might have seemed weird considering the Bengals just used a 1^st round pick on a tight end in Jermaine Gresham in 2010, but Gresham hasn’t been nearly as good as the two-time Pro Bowlers’ stats have suggested. He was actually ProFootballFocus’ worst rated tight end last season because of his propensity for drops (8) and penalties (9) and his shoddy run blocking. He also had 2 more big drops in their playoff loss to Houston, when he caught just 2 passes for 7 yards on 7 targets.

Dalton is more of a short throw quarterback anyway so using more two tight end sets makes sense, something they did on just 304 snaps in 17 games last year thanks to the unreliability of backup tight end Orson Charles. Charles, the only other tight end on the roster to play a snap last season, only ran a route on 103 snaps last year and Eifert gives them much more ability to throw out of two-tight end sets. He can be an asset to this team, but it’s unclear how much he will be as a rookie.

Running more two-tight end sets makes a lot of sense considering the Bengals’ lack of depth at wide receiver. While AJ Green has blossomed into one of probably the top-3 wide receivers in the league before even entering the magical wide receiver 3rd year breakout year, they’ve really struggled for consistency after him on the wide receiver depth chart. Only 3 players on this team had more than 211 receiving yards last year, one being Green, one being Gresham, and the 3rd being slot receiver Andrew Hawkins.

Hawkins was a pleasant surprise for them in his first real action after going undrafted out of Toledo in 2008, but he too came up flat in their playoff loss and 548 receiving yards on 434 routes run is nothing to write home about. He’s not really a starting type receiver at 5-7 175 and is more of a scat back/slot receiver, so they’ll need someone to step up as the starter opposite Green.

One option is Mohamed Sanu. Mohamed Sanu had a very nondescript rookie year, catching 16 passes for 154 yards and 4 touchdowns as a 3rd round rookie out of Rutgers. However, he did not really play much, playing only 209 snaps, including just 116 pass snaps. He played more than 50% of his team’s snaps just 3 times, weeks 10-12, when he caught 11 passes for 98 yards and 4 touchdowns. Following that week 12 game, he missed the rest of the season with a foot injury.

However, I love his fit in Cincinnati, with Andy Dalton having a weaker arm than most franchise quarterbacks, with Jay Gruden leading a West Coast Offense as offensive coordinator, and especially with AJ Green opposite him. Before the draft, I gave Sanu a 2nd round grade and compared him to former Bengal receiver TJ Houshmanzadeh, saying that the perfect fit for him would be for him to play opposite a deep threat like Houshmanzadeh did with Chad Johnson/Ochocinco and just eat up all the underneath targets. Little did I know that Sanu would be drafted by the Bengals, who were in need of a possession receiver like him to play opposite deep threat AJ Green.

He was incredibly productive at Rutgers despite poor quarterback play. In 2011, he caught 115 passes, which was almost 50% of his team’s 256 catches. The #2 guy on his team in terms of catches had 32. However, of the 210 career catches he had at Rutgers, only 4 went for more than 20 yards. He has absolutely no speed to burn and he’s not a vertical threat at all, running a 4.67. He’s really, really good at what he does though, which is getting open short, making tough possession catches. In his 2nd year in the league, he should be able to display those abilities in 2013 and lock down the starting job opposite Green. The other option is Marvin Jones, an inexperienced 2012 5^th round pick. It’s an area of concern going into the season, but it might not be at season’s end.

Grade: B-

[yard_barker]

Offensive Line

An underrated part of this Bengals team and a big part of the reason why Dalton has been able to have success has been this offensive line. This is good because Dalton has really struggled under pressure thus far in his career, completing 83 of 210 (39.5%) for 7 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. It might have looked like the offensive line wasn’t doing their job as they surrendered 45 sacks last season and another 2 in the playoffs, but that was mostly on Dalton, who took a sack on 28.7% of pressured drop backs, 3^rd worst in the NFL. Overall, Dalton was pressured on just 26.1% of his drop backs, 4^th best in the NFL. Their offensive line ranked 2^nd in pass block efficiency and was ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd highest rated pass blocking unit.

Dalton better hope this continues considering his struggles under pressure in his career. His struggles under pressure are probably tied to his struggles against tougher opponents. For the most part, he’s a fair weather quarterback, who can hit the open man against easier defenses when he’s not pressured, but when something goes wrong he has a lot of trouble succeeding in spite of it. It doesn’t make him a bad quarterback, but it doesn’t make him a good one either. Fortunately for him, this offensive line should continue to hold up, though there are a few concerns.

The first is right tackle Andre Smith. Smith was re-signed to a 3 year, 18 million dollar contract this off-season, which would seem like a bargain for ProFootballFocus’ highest rated right tackle last season. However, there’s a reason he was available for such a “bargain” and unsigned so late into free agency (up until draft day). He was terrible in his first two years in the league and looked on his way to being a bust so, in the off-season after the 2010 season, the Bengals declined an option on his contract for 2013 and 2014, shortening his rookie deal from 6 years to 4 years.

That move may have been the wakeup call he needed to get things right as he’s played very well over the past 2 years. However, there was definitely a buyer beware tag on him. Now that he’s gotten a paid he may revert to sloth mode like his first two years. He’s always had talent, but there was a lot made about his lack of effort and hustle before the draft. He was also recently arrested for bringing a gun into an airport and fined by the team for missing mandatory minicamp with a personal issue, both of which aren’t good signs. His contract is only guaranteed for one season though, so they can cut him pretty easily if he regresses, and it’s very possible that having to wait so long to get signed and not getting the money he was expecting this off-season could continue to serve as a wakeup call for him.

The other more minor concern is the age of left tackle Andrew Whitworth, who is entering his age 32 season. Whitworth is one of the most underrated players in the NFL. He’s a 2006 2^nd round pick who has been starting ever since. He’s been a top-12 offensive tackle on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 4 seasons, topping out at #1 in 2010 and ranking 9^th in 2012. He’s a better pass protector than a run blocker and was ProFootballFocus’ top rated pass blocking offensive tackle, though he was below average in run blocking and committed 9 penalties. Overall, being much better at pass protection than run blocking is a theme for this offensive line, as they graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 27^th ranked run blocking offensive line (though Gresham’s low run blocking grade is factored into this).

Along with Andre Smith, the only Cincinnati offensive lineman who graded out positively in run blocking was right guard Kevin Zeitler, though not by much. However, he was great in pass protection and committed just 4 penalties all season, so overall the rookie was ProFootballFocus’ 12^th rated guard. A 2012 1^st round pick and a highly rated collegiate offensive interior lineman, I see no reason why that can’t continue.

At left guard, Clint Boling was also a 1^st year starter and the 2011 4^th round pick did a very good job to start the season. However, a pair of disastrous games against Philadelphia and Dallas, in which he allowed 3 sacks and 5 hurries while not run blocking well, sunk his grade. Still, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 23^rd ranked guard isn’t that bad, though he’ll have competition from veteran Travelle Wharton for the starting job. Wharton missed the entire 2012 season with injury after signing a 3 year, 10 million dollar deal last off-season to be a starter. He’s an average player at best and 32 years old, so Boling probably deserves to win that one. If he doesn’t win the job, Wharton’s role will be as a reserve 6^th offensive lineman with his ability to play outside and inside, or the Bengals may just cut him rather than paying him 2.675 million, though there’d be no real cap reason for doing so.

The other position that’s up for grabs on the line is center, where they really struggled last year. Kyle Cook got hurt before the season started and Jeff Faine was awful in his absence, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ worst ranked center despite only playing in 8 games before going down with injury. Trevor Robinson then came on and did alright, though graded out below average, before Cook came back late in the season, playing poorly in 213 snaps. Cook is a pretty marginal starting center and hasn’t graded out positively since 2010. Heading into his age 30 season, he’ll face competition from Robinson for the starting job. Either way, center should be their weakness on the offensive line.

Grade: A-

Defensive Line

I mentioned the impressive young trio of Atkins, Dunlap, and Johnson in the intro. Atkins is a defensive tackle, but he gets after the quarterback better than most defensive ends, totaling 16 sacks, 13 hits, and 53 hurries on 555 pass rush snaps, a 14.8% rate. His pass rush productivity (sacks + .75 hits + .75 hurries *100) was 12.7, 3.3 more than 2^nd place Nick Fairley, and higher than every eligible pass rusher besides Cameron Wake and Brandon Graham. That’s insane considering he plays an interior position.

He also held up against the run, leading his position in run stopping grade and grading out 3^rd best among defensive linemen in that area behind JJ Watt and Muhammad Wilkerson. If not for Watt’s ridiculous season, Atkins would have had the highest single season grade on ProFootballFocus history. This wasn’t a fluke as he graded out as the #1 defensive tackle in his first year as a starter in 2011 and graded out 8^th as a reserve as a rookie. There’s simply no way they can allow him to leave. It would be almost like letting JJ Watt leave.

Carlos Dunlap comes from the same draft class as Atkins, going in the 2^nd round before Atkins went as an absolute steal in the 4^th round. He’s not the same type of player Atkins is, but few are and he’s very talented in his own right. He has just 2 starts thus far in his career, but he has been a very efficient pass rusher and a strong run stopper and he has increased his snaps total in each of his first 3 years in the league from 287 to 423 to 655 last season, a close 3^rd at his position on the team behind Robert Geathers. He’s going to get a chance to be a starter this year and increase his snaps total yet again. Even in limited action, he’s been ProFootballFocus’ 6^th and 8^th ranked 4-3 defensive end respectively in the last 2 seasons. This season, he had 5 sacks, 14 hits, and 34 hurries on 424 pass rush snaps, a 12.5% rate.

Johnson comes from the prior draft class, going in the 2^nd round in 2009. He was franchised tagged this off-season, but the team has shown no urgency to get a long term deal done with them, as has been the case with 3 all of their talented defensive linemen. If all 3 are unsigned going into next off-season, I don’t see any way they retain them all. They only have one franchise tag and other teams will undoubtedly offer more money than Mike Brown. It’s a shame because they’ve done so well drafting.

Johnson was actually the lowest rated of the bunch last year. His 13 sacks stand out, but he only had 8 hits, and 34 hurries and did so on 564 pass rush snaps, a rate of 9.8%. He actually graded out slightly below average as a pass rusher, but more than made up for it with his run stopping abilities and overall was ProFootballFocus’ 13^th ranked 4-3 defensive end. There’s some concern with him being just a one year wonder as he had never even graded out positively in the past, so I don’t mind making him play out the franchise tag in this situation, but Dunlap and Atkins should be locked up by now.

Dunlap and Johnson rotate with Robert Geathers, who played more snaps than Dunlap last year. He was alright as a run stopper, but was absolutely awful in generating pass rush, with 4 sacks, 4 hits, and 17 hurries on 399 pass rush snaps, a 6.3% pass rush rate. He ranked 56^th out of 62 eligible 4-3 defensive ends as a pass rusher and 58^th overall. Dunlap getting more snaps than him will be a good thing, but they really should have replaced him while they had the chance this off-season. They did use a 2^nd round pick on Margus Hunt, but he’s incredibly raw and probably won’t work into the defensive end rotation as a rookie. At best, he’ll take over Wallace Gilberry’s old role, which played 353 snaps last year.

Next to Geno Atkins at defensive tackle is Domata Peko, a mediocre starting defensive tackle who hasn’t graded out positively in any of the last 5 seasons. He’s clearly the weak link on the defensive line, struggling in both run stopping and pass rush. They did use a 2^nd round pick and a 3^rd round pick on defensive tackles in 2012, taking Devon Still and Brandon Thompson. Both will be in the rotation in a bigger way this season and either could eventually surpass Peko and enter the starting lineup. Overall, it’s a very talented defensive line that stops the run well and gets a tremendous amount of pass rush. The Bengals graded out as ProFootballFocus 4^th ranked pass rush team and I consider their defensive line one of the best in the NFL.

Grade: A

[google_ad]

Linebackers

The linebackers are easily the weakest group on Cincinnati’s defense. Rey Maualuga is a very big part of the problem. He was ProFootballFocus’ worst ranked middle linebacker this season, struggling against the run, but really struggling in coverage. They had a great opportunity to replace him this off-season, but not only did they bring him back, he’ll be playing in the same every down role and forced to play coverage, which he is just not good at. Maualuga graded out poorly in 2011 as well so this wasn’t a fluke and even back in 2010 and earlier when he was grading out positively, he was never good in coverage.

Vontaze Burfict is the other every down linebacker and by default he’s probably their best linebacker. As an undrafted rookie last year, he was about a league average player and could be improved in his 2^nd season in the league. He’s always had talent, but character issues dropped him in the draft. The Bengals would have been best off moving him inside to his natural position and finding an every down outside linebacker, replacing Maualuga on the team.

The 3^rd linebacker will be former Steeler James Harrison, who will be playing in a 4-3 for the first time in his career. That’s the one main change on defense for this team as he’ll be playing in Manny Lawson’s old role. I like the fit even though he’s heading into his age 35 season and playing a new scheme. While his coverage abilities and pass rush abilities have gone downhill recently, he’s still a very good run stuffing linebacker, grading out as the 3^rd highest rated 3-4 outside linebacker against the run last year and in his new two-down outside linebacker role, that will be mostly what he’ll be asked to do. He may also play a little bit on the line with his hand in the dirt rushing the passer. Age is a concern and he’ll need to stay healthy, but I do like the fit. Overall though, their linebackers are a real concern, especially in coverage.

Grade: C+

Secondary

One positive for the Bengals that Leon Hall will be another year removed from his November 2011 torn Achilles. He returned in time for week 1 last season, but didn’t look like himself. He missed both week 3 and week 4 with leg issues likely related to the Achilles surgery and allowed 21 catches on 30 attempts for 252 yards and a touchdown. He didn’t intercept a pass, while deflecting 6 and committing 2 penalties. However, for the rest of the season, he allowed 23 catches on 39 attempts for 229 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 1 pass and committing 2 penalties. He was once one of the best cornerbacks in the league before getting hurt and should be able to bounce back this year.

Opposite him, however, it’s a mystery. Pacman Jones and Terence Newman explicably both submitted terrific seasons last year, Newman as a starter and Jones on the slot in the nickel. Jones was ProFootballFocus’ 11^th ranked cornerback last year and Newman was the 19^th ranked, which is insane considering neither were any good of late. Newman turns 35 this season and Jones turns 30 (he also got arrested again) so it remains to be seen if they can keep it up. They do have 2012 1^st round pick Dre Kirkpatrick waiting in the wings, though he’s a bit of an unknown after playing 43 nondescript snaps as a rookie thanks to injury.

Along with Hall, the other big time player in their secondary is safety Reggie Nelson, ProFootballFocus’ 7^th ranked safety last year. He’s never been anything other than an average starter in his career, so it’ll be interesting to see if the soon-to-be 30-year-old has turned a corner and finally started capitalizing on his 1^st round talent. He went in the 1^st round in 2007.

Next to him, 3^rd round rookie Shawn Williams will compete with career backup Taylor Mays in a battle that probably won’t have a winner. That’s an area of concern for them unless Williams can play well as a rookie. Mays doesn’t really have any upside anymore. Mike Singletary drafted him 2 rounds before anyone else would have in 2010 and then the following year as soon as Jim Harbaugh came in he shipped him to Cincinnati for a pack of peanuts. In Cincinnati, despite having the perfect defensive coordinator for his skill set in Mike Zimmer, he’s never been able to stay in the starting lineup. They had to sign Chris Crocker and convert Nate Clements’ position mid-season last year because of Mays. Overall, I do like their defensive talent, but I have some concerns and I don’t think I like it more than last year’s defense. That is also the case on offense.

Grade: B+

Head Coach

Believe it or not, Marvin Lewis is actually the 2nd longest tenured Head Coach in the NFL after Bill Belichick. Despite his 79-80-1 record and 0-4 record in playoff games, he’s seemingly had 9 lives as a Head Coach, surviving every time his name comes up as someone who could be fired. The Bengals seem to have been rewarded for their patience as he’s taken them to back-to-back post-seasons and gotten himself off the hot seat. It helps that he has two terrific coordinators in Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer, whose names frequently come up in Head Coaching vacancy discussions.

Grade: B-

Overall

The Bengals have been a borderline playoff team in each of the last 2 years, going to the playoffs as the #6 seed in the AFC both times before a losing in not so close fashion to the Texans both times. I don’t expect much to be different this year. They could make the playoffs in the weaker AFC, but I think Pittsburgh will be back and Kansas City is much improved to go with Indianapolis and last year’s 4 divisional winners. I think their tough schedule might be what leaves them on the outside looking in as the 7^th or 8^th best team in the AFC.

In their division, I think they’ll go 3-3. Considering their issues with playoff teams in recent years, I think Baltimore takes both games unless they’re in a position to rest starters week 17 for the 2^nd straight year. Pittsburgh I also have getting back into the playoffs, but I think those two teams are evenly matched enough for Cincinnati to take one and I think they’ll take both from Cleveland, considering the kind of ease with which they’ve beaten non-playoff teams of late. Outside of the division, they host Green Bay, New England, the Jets, the Colts, and the Vikings. I don’t think they’ll beat either the Packers or Patriots, but they should beat the Jets. The Colts and Vikings were both playoff teams last year, but I see both taking a step back this year so the Bengals should win at least one of those.

On the road, they go to Chicago, Detroit, Buffalo, and Miami, and San Diego. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt with Buffalo, Miami, and San Diego even on the road, but both Chicago and Detroit, despite not being playoff teams last year, could easily make the playoffs this year. I think they’ll split those two and finish with a record of 9-7 overall.

Projection: 9-7 3^rd in AFC North

[switch_ad_hub]

Pittsburgh Steelers 2013 NFL Season Preview

July 15, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Steelers, Uncategorized

Introduction

The Steelers missed the playoffs in 2012 for just the 3^rd time in the Ben Roethlisberger era. Those 3 seasons have coincided with the only 3 seasons in that type span that the defense hasn’t ranked in the top-3 in points allowed. That being said, last season was hardly the defense’s fault. While they didn’t make it a ridiculous 7^th top-3 scoring defense finish in 9 years, they still finished 6^th allowing 19.6 points per game. In addition to that, they allowed the fewest yards in the NFL, allowing 4413, 239 less than 2^nd place Denver.

The offense was much more to blame, as they ranked 22^nd in the NFL, scoring just 21.0 points per game. The issues were twofold. The first was a very lackluster running game, which averaged just 3.7 yards per carry, 28^th in the NFL. The trio of Jonathan Dwyer, Isaac Redman, and Rashard Mendenhall really struggled. The second was an injury to Ben Roethlisberger, which cost him 3 and ½ games of real game action and limited him for the rest of the season upon his return. Prior to the Kansas City game where Roethlisberger got hurt, the Steelers were 5-3 and coming off a big win over the New York Giants, on a 3 game winning streak (which also included eventual playoff teams Cincinnati and Washington), and averaging 23.9 points per game.

In order to shore up their running game, they spent a 2^nd round pick on Le’Veon Bell. Bell is not an overly explosive back (his longest run of the last 2 seasons was 40 yards), but he’s incredibly consistent, capable of carrying a load, and a good pass catcher and pass protector. Bell averaged 4.7 yards per carry on 382 carries last year, catching 32 passes and scoring 13 times.

As for Ben Roethlisberger, he’s only played all 16 games once in his 9 year career. However, he’s usually been able to play well through injuries. His 2012 YPA of 7.3 was well behind his career average of 7.9 and the 2^nd lowest of his career. Going into that Kansas City game, he was completing 67.1% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. He was averaging slightly fewer yards per attempt than his career average, but in new Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley’s more conservative offense he was more accurate and better at protecting the football than usual. They also usually are able to survive without Roethlisberger, going 8-5 in the games he missed from 2004-2011, but they went just 1-2 in those games in 2012, thanks to terrible running game production and a ridiculous 8 turnover (5 fumble) loss to the Browns.

Overall, I like their chances of bouncing back this season. They probably won’t win 12 games like in 2010 or 2011, but their running game should be better and they should have better luck. Injuries probably won’t affect their season as much as they did last year and even if they “only” outgain their opponents by 909 yards again this season, they’ll probably be better than 8-8. This is still a very talented team that has gone 97-47 since drafting Ben Roethlisberger in 2004.

Quarterback

Ben Roethlisberger is one of just 7 active starting quarterbacks to have won the Super Bowl and while he’s always had a lot of help, he does belong in that top-7 or top-8 group of quarterbacks. He’s completed 63.1% of his passes for an average of 7.9 YPA, 191 touchdowns, and 108 interceptions in his career. His biggest issue is his inability to stay healthy. He’s not a particularly brittle player, but he takes a lot of hits because of his style of play. He’s also a very tough quarterback who usually plays through injuries and plays well for the most part. Last year’s broken rib was one of the exceptions.

The one concern here is his relationship with Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley. Haley and Roethlisberger would seem like a poor match because Roethlisberger’s game is not quick drop backs and short throws. While he did miss the playoffs in his first season with Haley, I don’t think you can necessarily blame Haley for that considering how well Roethlisberger was playing before getting hurt. There have been rumors of conflict, however, and I don’t think you can argue that they wouldn’t have been better off keeping Bruce Arians and not hiring Haley.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

2^nd round rookie Le’Veon Bell is expected to be the feature back for the Steelers, but Todd Haley has never been one for using just one running back. Even when he had Jamaal Charles setting a record at his disposal in 2010, he preferred to use both Charles and Thomas Jones. One of Isaac Redman or Jonathan Dwyer will steal carries away from Bell, but overall I expect their running game to be better than it was last year.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

One of the reasons for an expected improved running game is their offensive line. The 31^stranked offensive line in terms of run blocking last year, they were largely responsible for their inability to establish anything on the ground (they held up well in pass protection, however). Injuries and inexperience played a large part, but 4 of the 5 projected starters on the line have been 1^st or 2^nd round picks since 2010. They have plenty of talent.

The highest rated of the bunch coming out of school was right guard David DeCastro from Stanford. The 24^th pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, DeCastro was billed as one of the top interior offensive line prospects in recent memory. He slipped to the Steelers out of lack of need and positional value, but the Steelers had a spot for him and gladly snatched him up. However, an injury before the season limited him to 138 generally ineffective snaps late in the season. He’ll be more than a full year removed from the injury week 1 and he should be able to have a very strong 2^nd season in the league.

At center, the Steelers have another former highly rated prospect in Maurkice Pouncey, who went 18^th overall in 2010. Pouncey is an overrated player who is generally ranked among the best in the NFL at his position because of his name and the lack of mainstream statistics for evaluating interior offensive linemen. He’s been just an average to above average starter in his first 3 years in the league, despite being voted into 3 Pro-Bowls. Last season, he ranked 12^th on ProFootballFocus among centers in 14 starts, his highest ProFootballFocus rating in his career, though he really struggled in two starts at left guard. Still, he’ll be an asset for them on the line.

Starting at the tackle spots will be two former 2^nd round picks, Marcus Gilbert, from the 2011 class, and Mike Adams, from the 2012 class. Adams, the more athletic of the two, will get the first crack at the blindside job, although this is expected to be a fluid situation heading into Training Camp. Adams played 497 snaps at right tackle last season as a rookie and was pretty average, but he still has plenty of upside going forward. Gilbert, meanwhile, played pretty well as a rookie in 2011 on 905 snaps, including playoffs, but was limited to 246 snaps because of injury last season. He should be a solid starter on the right side provided he stays healthy.

The most experienced veteran on the line is Ramon Foster at left guard, who played the most snaps last season of any of their projected starters. Playing primarily at right guard last season, Foster was a solid starter and he is experienced at both left and right guard in his career. Their current projected starting 5 on the offensive line should all be at least decent. The issue, however, is potential injuries and their lack of depth. The only returning backup is Kelvin Beachum, who was slightly below average on 314 snaps as a rookie last year. Guy Whimper is the only veteran reserve and he was awful when called upon to play in Jacksonville over the past few years.

Grade: B

[google_ad]

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

The biggest loss on offense for the Steelers this season was #1 wide receiver Mike Wallace, who signed the off-season’s biggest contract with the Dolphins. However, that won’t be as big of a loss as it seems. In 2010 and 2011, Wallace was one of the best receivers in the league, catching a combined 132 passes for 2450 yards and 18 touchdowns. However, Wallace held out long into Training Camp last off-season, putting himself above the team and was not the same all season.

Wallace was ProFootballFocus’ 91^st ranked wide receiver out of 105 eligible. He caught just 55.2% of the passes thrown his way and averaged just 13.1 yards per catch. Wallace has demonstrated for the past year or so that he’d rather get paid above anything, holding out at his team’s expense and then chasing the money and going to Miami so it was probably smart of the Pittsburgh not to lock him up long term (not like they had the cap space, but still). He could easily coast now that he’s been paid.

The receiver they chose to pay instead was Antonio Brown, who signed a much more reasonable 5 year, 42.5 million dollar extension last off-season. Brown caught 42 passes for 499 yards in the first 8 games of last season, continuing where he left off the previous season, when he caught 35 passes for 677 yards in the final 8 games of the season. However, injuries to Roethlisberger and his own personal injuries slowed him down in the 2^nd half of last season. Still, he doesn’t have a history of injury issues and he’s the clear #1 receiver now. He’s never really been a touchdown guy, catching just 7 touchdowns in his first 3 seasons in the league, but with Wallace gone that should change.

Emmanuel Sanders, who has been the 3^rd receiver for the past 2 years, moves into the starting lineup. He’s been alright in limited action and could be a decent #2 receiver now that he’s gotten the chance. The other complementary receiver will be Markus Wheaton, a 3^rd round rookie. I don’t expect him to contribute much as a rookie because rookies rarely do, but it’s worth noting that the Steelers have found Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, and Emmanuel Sanders in the 3^rd round or later. Wallace leaving takes a lot of the talent out of this receiving corps, but he wasn’t contributing much positive last season anyway and Roethlisberger should be able to make do.

The bigger loss in the receiving corps could be Heath Miller, depending on how long the veteran tight end misses with injury. He injured his knee, including a torn ACL, during week 16 last year and could start the season on the PUP, which would cost him 6 weeks at the very least. Even when he returns, it’s unclear how much he’ll be able to contribute so it’s a serious issue and a serious loss.

A very solid overall tight end, Heath Miller had the best receiving year of his career last year despite missing week 17, catching 71 passes for 816 yards and 8 touchdowns. The tight end position is a very important part of Todd Haley’s offense and Roethlisberger loves leaning on him as a safety net. The Steelers don’t really have a suitable replacement. No other tight end caught more than 7 passes for them last season. Free agent acquisition Matt Spaeth is a solid blocker at best and the same could be said about holdover David Paulson, who caught those 7 passes. It’s a more serious issue than Wallace’s departure. Overall, there are concerns here, but I like the unit’s chances of getting back in the top half of the NFL in scoring, which will go a long way towards getting them back into the playoffs, depending on how the defense plays.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

How well the defense played last season might come as a surprise to some people as they’re considered to be an old unit, but they still have a lot of talent and Dick LeBeau always knows how to get the most out of his personnel. That being said, of the 7 starters over 30 on their 2012 team, 5 of them return and are a year older. Only James Harrison and Casey Hampton are gone, with Harrison being replaced by rookie first round pick Jarvis Jones and Hampton being replaced internally by Steve McLendon and Alameda Ta’amu.

McLendon will get the first crack at replacing long-time nose tackle Hampton. McClendon played incredibly well in limited action last season, both rushing the passer and stopping the run. He had 3 sacks, 2 hits, and 2 hurries on 73 pass rush snaps and also held up against the run on 62 run stopping snaps. It’s obviously a very limited sample size, but he did the same thing in 2011. His versatility will allow him to stay on the field on passing downs and play some five-technique, unlike Ta’amu, more of a pure run stuffer. Ta’amu, a 2012 4^th round pick, didn’t play a single snap as a rookie because of off the field issues, but they’re giving him another chance. He’s the clear underdog in this battle though and I expect McLendon to win and have an impact.

On the outside of their 3 man base 3-4 defensive line, three guys will rotate, former 1^st round picks Cameron Heyward and Ziggy Hood, along with veteran Brett Keisel, one of those aforementioned 5 starters over 30. Keisel was actually one of the best defensive linemen in the league in 2011, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 4^th ranked 3-4 defensive end. However, last year he was very average, grading out slightly above average as a run stopper and slightly below average as a pass rusher. 34 in September, his days of being a great defensive lineman are probably behind him, but he could still be a solid starter.

He could also see his abilities fall off a cliff and in that case the Steelers would really need Cameron Heyward and Ziggy Hood to step up, even more than they would anyway. Hood was their first round pick in 2009, but has been a rare 1^st round bust for this organization thus far. Billed as a future starter on an already aging defensive line, Hood struggled for playing time early in his career and then playing big snaps over the past two years he’s been awful. He was better against the run in 2012 than in 2011, but not great and also offered absolutely nothing as a pass rusher, recording 3 sacks, 3 hits, and 8 hurries on 495 pass rush snaps, a pitiful 2.8% rate. He was ProFootballFocus’ 31^st ranked 3-4 defensive end out of 34 eligible.

Heyward has played sparingly in his first two years in the league, playing a total of 514 snaps, but he graded out very well on 267 snaps last year and the 2011 1^st round pick has proven himself worthy of more playing time. Hood isn’t good and Keisel is aging so there will be plenty of opportunities for him and he might outright win a starting job over Hood in Training Camp. It’s very possible both Hood and Keisel, pending free agents in 2014, are in their final years with the team. Hood is a bust and Keisel could retire so Heyward is the future of the position. It would also be a major help in the short term if he could step up as a key contributor on this defensive line because right now this looks like the weakest bunch.

Grade: B

Linebackers

In the linebacking corps, the Steelers have a pair of big money linebackers, Lawrence Timmons inside and LaMarr Woodley outside. Timmons was once one of the best middle linebackers in the NFL, considered on the level of Patrick Willis. He was ProFootballFocus’ #1 rated inside linebacker in 2010 and rewarded for his strong level of play with a 5 year, 50 million dollar extension the following off-season. 2011 was a down year for him because of injuries and because he had to play outside on occasion and rush the passer, which he was very unnatural at. However, in 2012, he bounced back to an extent, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 5^th ranked inside linebacker.

LaMarr Woodley, however, wasn’t nearly as good. He too signed a giant extension following the 2010 season, re-signing for 6 years, 61.5 million as a free agent. At the time, it looked well deserved for the 2007 2^nd round pick, as he was coming off 3 straight years in the top-6 among rush linebackers on ProFootballFocus, topping out at #1 in 2009. However, his level of play has declining steeply in each of the last two seasons, to the point where he was barely a league average player last year. He’s also missed significant time with injury in each of the past two years.

Reports say that both his team and his teammates have ripped him for being out of shape and coasting once he got paid, which would certainly explain his steep decline. Early reports says he’s lost weight going into camp and is taking things more seriously, so he could turn it around, only heading into his age 29 season. That would be a welcome sight for a Steeler team that has managed just 35 and 37 sacks in the last two years respectively after leading the league with 48 in 2010. Pass rush has been the Achilles heel of this bunch over the past two years and they were actually ProFootballFocus’ worst rated pass rush team last year, after ranking 25^th in 2011. Not only are they struggling for sacks, but they aren’t getting consistent pressure either. That probably has something to do with why they have just 35 takeaways combined over the past two years, after having 35 total in 2010 (more on takeaways later).

Woodley’s longtime bookend James Harrison really wasn’t do much in terms of rushing the passer either, though his run stopping ability was still very valuable. However, his steep decline in pass rush ability and his advanced age going into his age 35 season led to the Steelers cutting him, saving 5.105 million in cap space and 6.57 million in real money. They used a first round pick on Jarvis Jones to replace him and he could easily be the first Steeler rookie to start on defense since the 2001 season. He’s obviously very talented and was a projected top-5 pick after an incredibly productive year at Georgia, before medical concerns about a preexisting spinal condition coupled with a poor workout sunk his stock and dropped him to the Steelers at 17. He could prove to be a steal.

Jones’ competition for the job will be Jason Worilds, the more veteran of the two by default, though the 25-year-old is only in his 4^th season after being taken in the 2^nd round in 2010. Once seen as a potential successor for Harrison, Worilds has actually played alright in place of injured players on the outside in his career and wouldn’t be an awful starter or anything like that, but the Steelers seem to have soured on his upside as a difference maker. Either that or they were just really high on Jones, but pre-draft rumors had them very interested in a bunch of highly rated rush linebackers. Even if Worilds doesn’t start, which looks like it will be the case, he’s definitely qualified for a reserve 3^rd linebacker role and could see more playing time if either of the starters get hurt or struggle. Neither Woodley nor Jones are sure things.

Rounding out the 4-man starting linebacker group is veteran linebacker Larry Foote, the 2^nd of the 5 over 30 starters and easily the weakest of this bunch, maybe the worst starter on defense. Foote was brought back as a starter for another season out of necessity as they had other needs in the draft and little cap flexibility in free agency, but they’ll probably make finding his replacement a priority of their 2014 off-season. The 33-year-old Foote has been a fringe starter for the Steelers for years (with a stint as a starter in Detroit in between) and while he was once a very valuable backup and smart locker room guy, his abilities have almost completely eroded and he was ProFootballFocus’ 46^th rated middle linebacker out of 53 eligible in 2012 and it’s hard to imagine him being much better in 2013.

They don’t really have a better internal option either. Stevenson Sylvester was drafted in the 5^th round in 2010 to maybe be a potential future starter, but he’s too small to be anything other than a special teamer, though he is a very solid one. Sean Spence, their 3^rd round pick in 2012, is also size challenged, but he was one of my favorite underrated prospects of that draft class because he did everything else so well in spite of his size.

Unfortunately, he suffered a nasty knee injury before the 2012 season and didn’t play a snap. He sustained nerve damage and doesn’t sound close to returning. He’ll almost definitely start the season on the PUP and maybe miss the whole season. While he personally says he’ll be back sometime this season, linebackers coach Keith Butler says it would be “miraculous” if he ever played football again, which is a shame. They also have 6^th round pick rookie Vince Williams, but it’s a longshot that he sees serious playing time this year.

Grade: B

[yard_barker]

Secondary

The secondary is the oldest unit of the defense with 30 starters over 30, but it’s also probably the most talented. Of course, as you can imagine with an aged group like this, there are also some potential concerns. Troy Polamalu is the biggest name (and biggest hair) player of the group, but injuries have been a major concern for him recently. Instead, their defensive back MVP of late has been cornerback Ike Taylor, who has been with the team since 2003 and has been as big a part of their defensive success as anyone, but hasn’t really gotten credit for it.

Taylor went down with a broken leg week 13 last season, just another of the Steelers’ late season injuries that eventually did them in. When healthy, he allowed just 30 catches for 448 yards on 68 attempts and while he did allow 5 for touchdowns to just 1 interception, he also deflected 10 passes, though he committed 7 penalties. Still, provided the soon to be 33-year-old’s abilities haven’t fallen off a cliff, he should be an asset for them, though age is a concern. His best performance was week 7, when he shadowed AJ Green for most of his game and held him to a career low 1 catch.

Opposite him, the Steelers have had several different cornerbacks over the years, but they’ve always held up in coverage. A testament to the Steelers’ defensive greatness, when these cornerbacks move on to other teams, they don’t play as well as they did in Pittsburgh and several like Bryant McFadden and William Gay end up returning. Dick LeBeau and his defensive coaching staff deserve a lot of credit for getting the most out of players and the front office deserves a lot of credit for identifying talented players who fit their scheme.

This off-season, the Steelers lost starting cornerback Keenan Lewis, a very important part of their defense last season. Lewis parlayed that strong season into a 5 year, 26 million dollar deal with the New Orleans Saints. However, as often is the case with the Steelers, they have a talented in house replacement who can make them forget all about Lewis. That player is 3rd year cornerback Cortez Allen, a 2011 4th round pick.

Allen served as the Steelers’ 3rd cornerback last year, coming into the game in sub packages and covering the slot. He played well, allowing 45 catches on 77 attempts (58.4%) for 448 yards (5.8 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 9 passes and committing 3 penalties. Because of this, he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 17th ranked cornerback, 14th in terms of pure coverage, despite playing just 563 snaps, fewer than everyone ranked higher than him. He also ranked 14th among eligible cornerbacks in QB rating allowed. He can play both on the slot and the outside and he should be able to make them forget about Lewis as he comes into his own in his 3^rd year in the league.

William Gay, as I mentioned earlier, has returned to the Steelers. He was a starter for them in 2011 and graded out well, allowing 47 completions on 89 attempts for 506 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and 9 deflections, while committing 4 penalties. However, as is often the case when cornerbacks leave Pittsburgh, Gay struggled mightily in his one season in Arizona, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 105^th ranked cornerback out of 113 eligible, allowing 52 catches for 726 yards on 88 attempts, with 2 interceptions to 1 touchdown. He deflected just 3 passes and committed 6 penalties. He’s only 28 though, so now back in Pittsburgh, he should be more than capable as a 3^rd cornerback, coming on the field in sub packages, playing outside, and moving Allen to the slot. If there are any issues with the top-3 cornerbacks, Curtis Brown is the 4^th cornerback, though he’s been inconsistent at best in two seasons after going in the 3^rd round in 2011.

While Troy Polamalu is the better known of Pittsburgh’s safeties, it was Ryan Clark who played every game last season, except for week 1 when he had to sit out in Denver’s high altitude because of his sickle cell trait. Though he’s entering into his age 34 season, Clark seems to be getting better with age, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 9^th ranked safety in 2012, excelling in both coverage and run stuffing. At his advanced age, it’s fair to wonder how long he can keep this up though.

Polamalu, meanwhile, is actually younger than him going into his age 32 season, but it hasn’t seemed like it the way injuries have been keeping him out of the lineup of late. He’s missed 22 games over the past 4 years and in those 22 games, they’ve allowed 20.2 points per game. With him, however, they allow just 15.5 points per game. He might be their single most important defensive player when healthy because he can impact the game with his mere presence and luckily injuries haven’t sapped his abilities when he has been able to suit up.

Despite playing in just 7 games last season, he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 13^th ranked safety last year and no one rated higher than him played fewer snaps than his 408. In 2011, when he played all 16 games, he was the highest rated safety. It’ll obviously be huge for them if he can stay healthy, despite his age. If he were to get hurt, or if Clark were to miss time, rookie 4^th round pick Sharmarko Thomas would probably step into the lineup. The Steelers traded a future 3^rd round pick to select him and obviously see him as a future starter. He lacks size, which is about it, but it could be an issue for him as he tries to stay healthy long term, much like Bob Sanders.

I mentioned the Steelers’ recent lack of takeaways, that’s something that should turn around. Since 2002, there have been 47 teams with 20 or fewer takeaways. On average, the following season, they’ve had 7.13 more takeaways the following season, which has translated to an extra 1.35 wins. Takeaways and turnovers and in general tend to be really random and the Steelers also have too much defensive talent to have this few turnovers. That will help their offense as well. They should be among the best defensive teams in the league again this season.

Grade: B+

Coaching

It’s impossible to be a lifelong Steelers fan 45 years old or younger and know what’s it’s like to have their team’s Head Coach on the hot seat. Chuck Noll coached successfully from 1969 to 1991, going 193-148 and winning 4 Super Bowls and when he retired, they hired a young defensive coordinator from Kansas City by the name of Bill Cowher. Cowher coached from 1992 to 2006, going 149-90 and winning a Super Bowl and when he retired in 2006, they hired a young defensive coordinator from Minnesota by the name of Mike Tomlin. Tomlin has gone 63-33 since and won the organization’s 6th Super Bowl title (most all time).

It’s tough to compare anyone to Cowher and Noll, but Tomlin can be mentioned in the same sentence with those two in a favorable way. He’s one of the league’s premier Head Coaches and possibly the most exciting part for Steelers fans is that he’s only 41. It could be another decade plus before the Steelers have to worry about the Head Coaching position. On top of that, they also have one of the league’s best coordinators in Dick LeBeau, who coordinates the defense. The 75 year old has been there since 2004 and has 2 Super Bowl rings in that time.

Grade: A-

Overall

The Steelers no longer have the talent they once did when they won 12 games in back-to-back seasons and made the Super Bowl twice in 4 years, but they should have a bounce back year. It took a lot of bad luck for them to finish at .500 last season, in terms of injuries and turnovers, and if they outgain opponents by as much as they did last year, it should translate into more wins. As is usually the case with teams that have a decline in wins of 4 or more like the Steelers did last year, they should bounce back at least half of that.

I think they’ll split their season series with Baltimore and while Cincinnati has had a ton of trouble beating playoff teams over the past 2 seasons, I think those two teams are evenly matched enough to split that series. I think they’ll probably take both against Cleveland, which puts them at about 4-2 in the division. Outside of the division, they host Tennessee, Chicago, Buffalo, Detroit, and Miami. They might be better than all 5 of those teams and should win at least 4. The road has been a bigger issue for them, as they’ve dropped several winnable non-divisional games there over the past few years. Games against Minnesota, Oakland, and the Jets which might seem easy could be trap games, while games in New England and Green Bay will be very tough. I have them winning 2 of those 5 and finishing at 10-6, sneaking back into the playoffs as a wild card.

Projection: 10-6 2^nd in AFC North

[switch_ad_hub]

2013 Cleveland Browns Fantasy Football Projections

July 8, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Browns, Uncategorized

QB Brandon Weeden (Cleveland)

8/20/13: As was expected all off-season, Brandon Weeden was named the Browns’ starting quarterback and I expect him to have a fairly long leash, even with veterans Jason Campbell and Brian Hoyer behind him. If he stays healthy, he could start all 16 games. However, he’s just a low end QB2. He should post better numbers in his 2^nd season in the league in a system that fits him better under Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner, but he won’t be that impressive.

Projection: 3550 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (184 pts standard, 216 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Trent Richardson (Cleveland)

8/27/13: So much for him being injury prone. Trent Richardson is, by all accounts, having a phenomenal pre-season and Training Camp and has gotten himself down to 225 pounds and in phenomenal shape. With Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator, he’s locked into a massive workload and should surpass the 318 touches he had last season. He averaged just 3.6 yards per carry last year thanks to injuries sapping his effectiveness, but he’s much more talented than that and he has a very strong offensive line in front of him.

Richardson struggled as a rookie through injuries, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry on 267 carries, though he did catch 51 passes and score 12 times on an overall miserable offense. Now, Richardson is struggling through injuries once again this off-season. Richardson certainly has the talent to be one of the best running back in the NFL, but the question isn’t with his talent. It’s whether or not he can stay healthy.

Projection: 280 carries for 1260 rushing yards 11 total touchdowns 56 catches for 450 receiving yards (237 pts standard, 293 pts PPR)

WR Josh Gordon (Cleveland)

One of the bright spots of the Browns’ 2012 season was the developmental of rookie Josh Gordon, a risky 2^nd round choice in the supplemental draft. Naturally, Gordon got himself suspended for the first 2 games of the season for repeated violations of the NFL’s substance abuse policy and is one strike away from being suspended for an entire season. Not only will he miss 2 games, but this could put a developing young receiver behind the 8-ball when he does return for week 3 and beyond. At this point in his career, Gordon is a great deep ball receiver and little else, playing inconsistent overall, but he could really shine in Rob Chudzinski’s offense. He’s a risky fantasy pick, however.

Projection: 54 catches for 800 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (116 pts, 170 pts PPR)

WR Greg Little (Cleveland)

Greg Little, a 2011 2^nd round pick, played better down the stretch, but only by default as he caught just 11 of his first 29 targets, including 6 drops. In the final 8 games of the season, he did catch 31 passes for 398 yards and 2 touchdowns with just 3 drops, so perhaps he’s finally turned a corner going into his 3^rd year in the league and he’ll be the #1 receiver for a couple games with Gordon suspended. He’s an unexplosive athlete, however, who is among the worst in the NFL in yards per reception and yards per reception after the catch. His future is as a #2 possession receiver at best.

Projection: 62 catches for 750 receiving yards 4 total touchdowns (99 pts, 161 pts PPR)

TE Jordan Cameron (Cleveland)

Cameron is very inexperienced having caught just 26 passes in his 2 years in the league since being drafted in the 4^th round in 2011, but the starting job is finally his with Ben Watson gone and while he might still be raw, his freakish athleticism and pass catching ability is exactly what Chudzinski and Turner want out of their tight ends. The 6-5 254 pounder ran a 4.59 with a 37.5 inch vertical at The Combine and was a basketball player at USC, much like Jimmy Graham and Antonio Gates at their respective alma maters. He’s reportedly been great this off-season and he has potential for a breakout year, though, of course, he’ll be handicapped by his quarterback play.

Projection: 45 catches for 600 receiving yards 4 touchdowns (84 pts, 129 pts PPR)

[switch_ad_hub]

2013 Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Football Projections

July 8, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Bengals, Uncategorized

QB Andy Dalton (Cincinnati)

In those 12 games against future playoff teams, Dalton was 250 of 445 (56.2%) for 2934 yards (6.6 YPA), 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. In the other 22 games, he’s 420 of 679 (61.9%) for 4518 yards (6.7 YPA), 35 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions. This is a concern considering the Bengals have to face 7 teams who made the playoffs in 2012, along with Pittsburgh (twice), Chicago, and what should be an improved Detroit team. I don’t expect him to match his 2012 numbers.

Projection: 3650 passing yards 25 passing touchdowns 17 interceptions 130 rushing yards 2 touchdowns (237 pts standard, 287 pts 6 pt TD leagues)

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Cincinnati)

8/29/13: BJGE is really only worth a late round pick at this point. He’s not an inefficient per carry runner and he doesn’t provide anything in the air. If he starts losing carries and goal line carries to Bernard, he’ll be useless in fantasy, except as a Bernard handcuff.

There is absolutely nothing flashy about Green-Ellis’ game. On 788 career carries, he has just 3 rushes for longer than 34 yards, but also just 3 fumbles. He also doesn’t contribute anything in the passing game with just 48 career catches. He’s good in short yardage, but he doesn’t do much other than run through holes that are blocked. He averaged just 2.1 yards per carry after contact last season after doing the same in 2011, both among the worst in the league, and he also was under 4 yards per carry for the 2^nd straight season. Bernard is the more talented back and even as a rookie will take carries away.

Projection: 150 carries for 590 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 12 catches for 70 yards (96 pts, 108 pts PPR)

RB Giovani Bernard (Cincinnati)

8/29/13: Giovani Bernard had a strong pre-season, especially around the goal line. He’s the more talented of Cincinnati’s two running backs and, while he may start the season splitting carries with BenJarvus Green-Ellis, he might not stay in that role all season. Few flex plays have more upside.

Bernard is not a full package back at just 5-8 202, but we’ve seen plenty of backs go in the 2^nd round or later with similar billings and go to be to very good running backs, including Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew. It’s unclear how much he can contribute as a rookie, however, as neither of those backs were every down guys until after their 1^st season, once they had more time in an NFL weight room. He’ll probably split carries with BJGE, but he’s the more explosive player and more of a factor in the passing game.

Projection: 190 carries for 840 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 40 catches for 320 yards (152 pts, 199 pts PPR)

WR AJ Green (Cincinnati)

AJ Green has blossomed into one of probably the top-3 wide receivers in the league before even entering the magical wide receiver 3rd year breakout year. He’s one of the top fantasy receivers (and real life receivers) in the game and I don’t see any reason why this year should be any different for him.

Projection: 100 catches for 1400 receiving yards 10 touchdowns (200 pts, 300 pts PPR)

WR Mohamed Sanu (Cincinnati)

Mohamed Sanu had a very nondescript rookie year, catching 16 passes for 154 yards and 4 touchdowns as a 3rd round rookie out of Rutgers. However, I love his fit in Cincinnati, with Andy Dalton having a weaker arm than most franchise quarterbacks, with Jay Gruden leading a West Coast Offense as offensive coordinator, and especially with AJ Green opposite him. Before the draft, I gave Sanu a 2nd round grade and compared him to former Bengal receiver TJ Houshmanzadeh, saying that the perfect fit for him would be for him to play opposite a deep threat like Houshmanzadeh did with Chad Johnson/Ochocinco and just eat up all the underneath targets. Little did I know that Sanu would be drafted by the Bengals, who were in need of a possession receiver like him to play opposite deep threat AJ Green. There’s some upside here late.

Projection: 50 catches for 600 yards 5 touchdowns (90 pts, 140 pts PPR)

TE Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati)

Gresham has made 2 Pro Bowls in his career, but he’s an underrated player who drops a lot of passes (10 last year, including 2 in their playoff loss), commits a lot of penalties (9), and doesn’t run block well. The Bengals brought in Tyler Eifert for that reason and will run more two-tight end sets, which will cut into Gresham’s targets. Look elsewhere.

Projection: 53 catches for 650 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (95 pts, 148 pts PPR)

[switch_ad_hub]

2013 Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Football Projections

July 8, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Steelers, Uncategorized

QB Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh)

Roethlisberger was on pace for 4406 yards, 32 touchdowns, and just 8 interceptions at the halfway point last season, before getting hurt and missing 3 ½ games. He wasn’t the same once he returned either. Unfortunately, Roethlisberger has played in all 16 games just once in his career. He should be improved over last year’s 3265 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, but he won’t reach those extrapolated numbers.

Projection: 3750 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (260 pts standard, 316 pts 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh)

8/31/13: Dwyer’s release is also good news for Bell, as it’s a sign that Bell is farther along in his recovery than originally thought. He’s out of his walking boot and while he’ll miss at least 4-6 weeks with an injury that tends to linger, his value is on the rise. The only concern is that Redman impresses in his absence, but Redman will probably go back to being just a passing down back upon Bell’s return.

8/21/13: Steelers rookie running back Le’Veon Bell is expected to miss at least 6-8 weeks with a Lisfranc injury and he could be a candidate for the injured reserve with designation to return, which would put him out until at least week 9 and his status is even more up in the air than that. There’s no guarantee he’ll be the feature back upon return either. In his absence, the underwhelming trio of Isaac Redman, Jonathan Dwyer, and La’Rod Stephens-Howling will split carries. Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley likes rotating backs anyway. It’s a fantasy situation to avoid.

A rookie 2^nd round pick, Bell is not an overly explosive back (his longest run of the last 2 seasons was 40 yards), but he’s incredibly consistent, capable of carrying a load, and a good pass catcher and pass protector. Bell averaged 4.7 yards per carry on 382 carries last year, catching 32 passes and scoring 13 times. He is expected to be the feature back for the Steelers, but Todd Haley has never been one for using just one running back. Even when he had Jamaal Charles almost setting a per carry record at his disposal in 2010, he preferred to use both Charles and Thomas Jones.

Projection: 150 carries for 630 rushing yards and 5 total touchdowns 23 catches for 150 receiving yards (108 pts standard, 131 pts PPR)

RB Isaac Redman (Pittsburgh)

8/31/13: The Steelers have cut Jonathan Dwyer. This is good news for Isaac Redman, who will be pretty much the feature back until Le’Veon Bell returns, with just change of pace backs La’Rod Stephens-Howling and Felix Jones behind him on the depth chart. It’s still not a great fantasy situation, but Redman isn’t a bad late round pick by any stretch of the imagination.

Projection: 140 carries for 630 rushing yards and 4 total touchdowns 25 catches for 200 receiving yards (107 pts standard, 132 pts PPR)

WR Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh)

Brown caught 42 passes for 499 yards in the first 8 games of last season, continuing where he left off the previous season, when he caught 35 passes for 677 yards in the final 8 games of the season. However, injuries to Roethlisberger and his own personal injuries slowed him down in the 2^nd half of last season. Still, he doesn’t have a history of injury issues and he’s the clear #1 receiver now. He’s never really been a touchdown guy, catching just 7 touchdowns in his first 3 seasons in the league, but with Mike Wallace gone that should change.

Projection: 78 catches for 1030 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (145 pts standard, 223 pts PPR)

WR Emmanuel Sanders (Pittsburgh)

Emmanuel Sanders moves into the starting lineup as the clear #2 receiver on an offense that usually is productive in fantasy leagues for wide receivers. He’s got some talent and has shown it at times over the first few years of his career as a reserve. There’s some value here.

Projection: 51 catches for 750 receiving yards 4 touchdowns (99 pts standard, 150 pts PPR)

[switch_ad_hub]

2013 Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Football Projections

July 2, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Ravens, Uncategorized

QB Joe Flacco (Baltimore)

7/28/13: Anquan Boldin was Joe Flacco’s leading receiver last year and Dennis Pitta was the guy who was supposed to step up as the top complement to 3^rd year deep threat Torrey Smith. Now Pitta is out for the season with Boldin gone and it’s just Torrey Smith and a bunch of question marks in the receiving corps. Flacco will make do because that’s what good quarterbacks do. He might not have a secondary go to receiver, but he’ll throw the ball around and I do believe that a full season of Bryant McKinnie at left tackle and Jim Caldwell at offensive coordinator will help him and that he should be able to maintain some of his post-season gains. But I’m obviously knocking down a bit with Pitta done for the year.

Throughout his 5 year career, he’s been a very inconsistent week to week quarterback, but an incredibly consistent year to year quarterback, proving himself to be a slightly above average quarterback and nothing more. His completion percentages have always fallen between 57.6% and 63.1%. His YPAs have always fallen between 6.7 and 7.4. His touchdowns have always fallen between 20 and 25 (with the exception of his rookie year) and his interceptions have always fallen between 10 and 12. Of course, that all changed in the post-season and while I don’t expect him to keep that up, I do expect him to have his career best regular season this year.

Projection: 3900 passing yards 26 touchdowns 11 interceptions 70 rushing yards 2 touchdowns (257 pts standard, 309 pts 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Ray Rice (Baltimore)

Ray Rice’s 257 carries in 2012 were his lowest since 253, when Willis McGahee was still around. With Bernard Pierce coming on as a very capable backup, that number could be even lower this season. The good news, however, is that Rice averaged a career high 5.3 YPC in 2009 when his carries were lower and Pierce’s presence will help him stay fresh. Also with Anquan Boldin gone, expect Rice’s catch total to be closer to his career high of 78 than his 4-year low of 61 in 2010. The only concern is if the bigger Pierce starts taking away goal line carries, but there are no indications that will happen.

Projection: 240 carries for 1130 rushing yards 10 total touchdowns 75 catches for 650 yards (238 pts standard, 313 pts PPR)

RB Bernard Pierce (Baltimore)

Pierce came on big time down the stretch as a 3rd round pick rookie. Playoffs included, he rushed for 734 yards on 147 carries last year, a 5.0 YPC clip. In his final 12 games, including playoffs, he rushed for 586 yards on 117 carries. He’ll probably see about half of Rice’s carries, but because he doesn’t do much in the passing game, the only way he becomes a fantasy starter is if the ever durable Rice gets hurt or he starts stealing goal line carries. He’s still a very valuable handcuff and arguably the best backup running back in the NFL.

Projection: 130 carries 620 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 12 catches for 80 yards (100 pts standard, 112 pts PPR)

WR Torrey Smith (Baltimore)

7/28/13: Smith gets a stock up with Pitta going down because he’s really their only reliable receiver remaining. The Ravens are really hoping that the talented young receiver finally puts everything together and has a breakout year in his 3^rd year in the league and even if he doesn’t take a big leap forward in terms of his play, he should have a much better statistical year based purely on the sheer number of targets he’ll receive.

The Ravens will need Torrey Smith to step up opposite him as the new #1 receiver with Anquan Boldin gone. Smith has flashed in his first two years in the league after the Ravens took him in the 2nd round in 2011, catching 50 passes for 841 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2011 and 49 passes for 855 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2012, but he’s yet to put it all together as a consistent receiver and something more than just an inconsistent deep threat. However, going into his 3rd year in the league, a year when young receivers typically breakout, he’s got a very good chance to. With Boldin gone, he should get a career high in targets and have his best statistical season, possibly going over 1000 yards.

Projection: 63 catches for 1100 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns (164 pts standard, 227 pts PPR)

[switch_ad_hub]

2013 Baltimore Ravens NFL Season Preview

July 2, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Ravens, Uncategorized

Introduction

Going into the 2012 playoffs, many people believed that the Baltimore Ravens were one of the weakest playoff teams and one of the most unlikely to go all the way. Some people even thought they were the worst playoff team and they had good reason to believe so. No playoff team had fewer than the Ravens’ 10 wins. They were coming from the weaker conference (the AFC was 25-39 against the NFC on the season and AFC division winners did not beat a single NFC playoff team in the regular season). No playoff team was “colder” than the Ravens were, having lost 4 of their final 5 games and having just fired their offensive coordinator a few weeks ago. And even when they had a strong record at 9-2, they had done so by winning 5 games by a field goal or less. They were a Ray Rice 4^th and 29 conversion (and a questionable call to boot) and a Ben Roethlisberger injury away from not even making the playoffs.

However, at the end of the day, it was the Ravens hoisting the Lombardi, going through Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, as well as hotshot 1^st year starting quarterbacks Andrew Luck and Colin Kaepernick in the process. All 4 of the quarterbacks they beat were perceived to be better quarterbacks than Joe Flacco, the Ravens’ 5^th year starting quarterback, a maddeningly inconsistent and boringly nondescript signal caller who was in the final year of his contract after the Ravens didn’t lock him up lock-term the previous off-season. Flacco outplayed all 4 of them in their matchups, completing 57.9% of his passes for an average of 9.1 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

Of course, the Ravens wouldn’t have been even in the AFC Championship if Rahim Moore had stayed in his assignment on a routine prevent play, but they were hardly the first team to need a “miracle” type play to eventually win the Super Bowl. From the Tuck Rule ruling to the David Tyree catch, it seems like this type of thing has become more the norm than a fluke in recent years. What the Ravens really proved at the end of it all was, once again, that the playoffs are a completely new season. Once you make the playoffs, the regular season doesn’t matter. Most playoff teams are very evenly matched and it all comes down to game to game execution and who gets hot at the right time. It’s what makes the NFL so hard to predict, even more so than other sports, and why you can never write any playoff team off.

So what led to the Ravens’ transformation from the regular season to the post-season? It was partially just getting hot, but there is much more to it than that. The way I see it, it was 5 things. The first one is the most recognized by the media, the return of Ray Lewis. Lewis didn’t play particularly well, contrary to what his tackle total said. All tackles are not created equal, or at least they should not be, and Lewis only had 11 tackles within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage on 1^st down, 6 yards on 2^nd down, and the full distance on 3^rd and 4^th down. He also got toasted in coverage on several occasions. However, his presence on the field and in the locker room coming back from what was supposed to be a season ending injury had a huge intangible value.

The second reason was the habitually inconsistent Joe Flacco just purely playing 4 straight games of very strong football. The third, fourth, and fifth reasons have to do with Flacco’s strong play and were contributing factors to it, in addition to just what Flacco was able to accomplish on his own. The third reason was the strong play of Anquan Boldin, who made at least a half dozen amazing catches and Flacco could not have won the Super Bowl without him.

The 4^th reason was Bryant McKinnie. The veteran left tackle barely played in the regular season because of weight issues, but he got his weight right for the playoffs and made his first start of the season in the first round of the playoffs. This allowed Michael Oher and Kelechi Osemele to shift to their more natural positions of right tackle and left guard respectively. This led to Joe Flacco being sacked on just 4.5% of his drop backs in the post-season and pressured on just 27.6%. For comparison, he was sacked on 6.1% of his drop backs and pressured 32.4% of his drop backs in the regular season.

The 5^th reason was offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell. Ordinarily, firing your offensive coordinator after week 14, as the Ravens did in 2012 after an overtime home loss to the Redskins, is the equivalent of waving a white flag. However, for the Ravens it was a move that had needed to be done for years as Cam Cameron was consistently overmatched as a play caller on a weekly basis. That was obvious. What was not obvious was how much of an upgrade Jim Caldwell, a first time signal caller, would be.

The biggest thing Caldwell did was letting Flacco unleash and throw downfield most often, rather than forcing him to run a more conservative offense. It had looked for years like Flacco was always holding something back and he might actually be more accurate 15 yards downfield than 5-10 yards downfield. In 6 full games with Caldwell as his offensive coordinator, Flacco threw downfield 20+ yards or more 41 times, an average of 6.8 times per game. In 13 games with Cam Cameron, he threw downfield 20+ yards or more 80 times, an average of 6.2 times per game. Of those 41 throws, he completed 20 for 714 yards and 6 touchdowns, with no interceptions.

Of course, he would not be able to load up for that many throws downfield if it weren’t for his offensive line giving him better protection and he would not have completed that many if it weren’t for Anquan Boldin and his own improved consistency, so it all really works together. Anquan Boldin is now gone, as is Ray Lewis, and Flacco might not be able to keep up that level of consistency for 16 games, but Jim Caldwell returns, as does Bryant McKinnie, and Flacco may have turned a corner as a quarterback. He probably won’t become the type of player Aaron Rodgers did after he got hot late in the season and in the post-season en route to winning the Super Bowl, but he could easily become the type of player Eli Manning became after doing so the first time in 2007.

All of that is a big part of the reason why I believe the Ravens will be a better team in 2013 than 2012. The other part of the reason is that I actually believe they have a more talented roster. This might sound ridiculous considering all they lost early in free agency. Ray Lewis retired, as did long time starting center Matt Birk. Ed Reed signed with the Texans and linebackers Dannell Ellerbe and Paul Kruger, who came on big time in their playoff run, signed with the Dolphins and Ravens respectively. For cap reasons, Anquan Boldin was traded to the 49ers and Bernard Pollard and Vonta Leach were cut. Also gone are defensive starters, Cary Williams and Ma’ake Kemoeatu, making it a total of 10 starters gone from their Super Bowl winning team.

However, the Ravens did not panic and let the off-season come to them, as could have been expected from GM Ozzie Newsome, one of the best in the business. Super Bowls are never won on the first day of free agency. That’s when mediocre teams like the Dolphins panic and overspend, but the good teams like the Ravens, Patriots, Steelers, 49ers, Giants, Packers, Saints, and Falcons never make big moves on that day and instead focus on smart signings, strong drafting, and careful cap management. You can say that it’s because those teams don’t need as much because they are already good, but none of them were built on big free agent signings.

The Ravens drafted very well, adding two first round prospects in the first 2 rounds of the draft in Matt Elam and Arthur Jones, who will replace Ed Reed and Ray Lewis respectively (technically Elam will play strong safety and replace Bernard Pollard, but safeties are so interchangeable these days that I think the statement still counts as true given than Elam is the future of the Ravens’ safety position).

Jones, their 2^nd round pick, might actually be the better of the two football players. A borderline 1^st round prospect before a hernia injury hurt his stock, the Ravens moved up for him in the later part of the 2^nd round and very well could have had a 1^st round grade on him. Jones was one of my favorite draft prospects this year. He’s undersized, but like 2^nd round picks Bobby Wagner and Lavonte David last year, he does everything else so well that it doesn’t matter so much. Remember, Ray Lewis was once considered undersized. It’s an unfair comparison at this point, but it’s worth noting. They also added defensive lineman Brandon Williams and fullback Kyle Juszczyk in the 3^rd round and 4^th rounds respectively, who will replace Ma’ake Kemoeatu and Vonta Leach respectively.

In addition to their strong draft, they made a number of smart free agency signings. Michael Huff was signed to a cheap 3 year deal to play safety next to Matt Elam. He was a cap casualty by the Raiders, but he is still a solid starter and a great value. Daryl Smith was signed to a one year deal from Jacksonville. He’s going into his age 31 season and missed most of last year with injury, but was one of the best linebackers in the league in 2011. He’ll play inside with Arthur Brown. Chris Canty was signed after being cut by the Giants to provide defensive line depth. They also traded a conditional late round pick to the Colts for AQ Shipley, who played well in place of injury at center last year. He’ll compete with 2012 4^th round pick Gino Gradkowski to replace Matt Birk.

Even when the Ravens made a big money signing it was a good value. After the Broncos made him a cap casualty, the Ravens signed Elvis Dumervil to a 5 year, 26 million dollar deal (with an extra 9 million available through incentives). It was a great value considering Paul Kruger got 40.5 million over 5 years from the Browns, despite the fact that he was only a one year starter. Dumervil, meanwhile, has 42 sacks in his last 3 healthy seasons, including playoffs, and is only 2 years older, going into just his age 29 season. He’s very one dimensional, but he’s better in a 3-4, having his career best year in 2009 under Mike Nolan in Denver, and should play even better in Baltimore’s scheme (similar to a Mike Nolan type defense) than he did in the last 2 seasons in Denver.

While I believe the Ravens are a better team this season, I don’t believe they’ll repeat as Super Bowl champs. I don’t think they were the most talented team in the league last year, but you don’t have to be. The regular season is about talent level. The post-season is about getting hot and executing. It’s the nature of a single elimination post-season. It’s very, very tough to be that one team out of 32 teams to win it all and there are more talented teams than them out there. They’ll also have everyone gunning for them and giving them their best as Super Bowl champs. There’s a reason why no defending Super Bowl champ has won a single playoff game since the 2004 Patriots.

However, they will have a strong regular season and prove the doubters about their off-season wrong. Their over/under of 8.5 wins is a joke and they should easily finish over .500. I do believe they’ll exceed their 10 win total from 2012 and go into the post-season in better standing than they did last year. Once they get there, it’ll all be about executing the best over a 5 week span like they did last year.

Quarterback

I already went into depth about Joe Flacco in the extended intro. Throughout his 5 year career, he’s been a very inconsistent week to week quarterback, but an incredibly consistent year to year quarterback, proving himself to be a slightly above average quarterback and nothing more. His completion percentages have always fallen between 57.6% and 63.1%. His YPAs have always fallen between 6.7 and 7.4. His touchdowns have always fallen between 20 and 25 (with the exception of his rookie year) and his interceptions have always fallen between 10 and 12.

Of course, that all changed in the post-season and while I don’t expect him to keep that up, I do expect him to have his career best regular season this year. Bryant McKinnie and Jim Caldwell will continue to have a big impact. He’s not a top level quarterback like Manning or Brady or Rodgers, but I consider him an elite quarterback comparable to guys like Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. One concern here is if Flacco were to get hurt, backups Tyrod Taylor and Caleb Hanie are not very good. They are arguably among the worst backup quarterbacks in the NFL. However, Flacco hasn’t missed a game in 5 seasons and what good team wouldn’t be screwed if their quarterback were to get hurt.

Grade: A-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

If there’s one thing that’s going to prevent Flacco from having his best regular season, it’s his receiving corps. Anquan Boldin is the most important player that they didn’t replace at all. With the exception of Aaron Mellette in the 7^th round of the draft, they didn’t add a single receiver this off-season. Jacoby Jones will start in Boldin’s absence. While he had that memorable play against Denver to send it to overtime, Jones should be nothing more than a depth receiver. He’s had chances to start in his career, but has never had more than 51 catches for 562 yards in a season.

The Ravens will need Torrey Smith to step up opposite him as the new #1 receiver with Anquan Boldin gone. Smith has flashed in his first two years in the league after the Ravens took him in the 2^nd round in 2011, catching 50 passes for 841 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2011 and 49 passes for 855 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2012, but he’s yet to put it all together as a consistent receiver and something more than just an inconsistent deep threat. Game to game consistency is his biggest issue. In 38 career games (including playoffs), he’s gone over 50 yards just 16 times, but he does have 5 games of 120 yards or more. However, going into his 3^rd year in the league, a year when young receivers typically breakout, he’s got a very good chance to. With Boldin gone, he should get a career high in targets and have his best statistical season, possibly going over 1000 yards.

Dennis Pitta is another receiver that will have to step up in Boldin’s absence. The “other” tight end from the 2010 class that featured Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, and Aaron Hernandez (oops), Pitta really came on down the stretch, catching 44 passes for 518 yards and 8 touchdowns in his final 10 games (excluding week 11 and week 17 when he barely played), including playoffs, which extrapolates to 70 catches for 829 yards and 13 touchdowns over 16 games. He’ll be their #2 receiver this year and take over as the primary possession receiver to Torrey Smith’s deep threat. Pitta’s only weakness is run blocking, which he doesn’t do very well.

Ed Dickson is the other tight end, but he’s not nearly as good. Not only does he provide very little as a receiver, catching just 21 passes for 225 yards and no touchdowns, but he was an awful run blocker, grading as ProFootballFocus’ 6^th worst run blocking tight end, 2^nd worst if you take the post-season into account. That’s especially bad considering he’s supposed to be the blocking tight end, coming in primarily on running plays and two-tight end sets. He was better as a pass catcher in 2011, catching 54 passes for 528 yards and 5 touchdowns, but he’s never been a good run blocker. The higher drafted of the Ravens two tight ends from the 2010 draft class, Dickson is clearly the inferior and a pure backup caliber player.

The 3^rd receiver is Deonte Thompson, an undrafted free agent who caught just 5 passes as a rookie. The Ravens like his 4.32 speed at 6-0 206 and have been encouraged by his off-season. They are hoping he’ll eventually beat out the marginal Jacoby Jones for the starting job at some point this season, but that might be shooting a little high for him. The fact that he’s the 3^rd receiver right now shows just how thin this receiving corps is and is a problem considering how much 3-wide sets have become a part of the league these days. Young receivers David Reed, Tommy Streeter, and Tandon Doss are also in the mix, but none have established themselves like Thompson this off-season. The receivers comprising that trio are all mid to late round picks from the 2010-2012 drafts who have yet to do much as pros.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

While his receiving corps is a concern, Joe Flacco’s running backs are anything but. Not only is Ray Rice one of the best starting running backs in the NFL, but Bernard Pierce might be the best backup running back in the NFL. Pierce came on big time down the stretch as a 3^rd round pick rookie. Playoffs included, he rushed for 734 yards on 147 carries last year, a 5.0 YPC clip. In his final 12 games, including playoffs, he rushed for 586 yards on 117 carries.

He took carries away from Ray Rice, whose 257 carries were his lowest since 2009, when Willis McGahee was still around, and he’ll probably take more away from him this season. However, Rice has publicly said he doesn’t mind and it’ll probably be good for both of them as it’ll keep them both fresh. That’ll be important for Rice as he heads into his late 20s. It might sound weird, but he’s already at 1216 career carries, which is more than halfway to the point where even great running backs see their abilities fall off a cliff and that doesn’t take into account the extra 311 touches he’s had from catches. He’s never had a serious injury in his career, but father time is undefeated and Pierce will help him lengthen his career.

Expect Pierce to get about a third of the carries between the duo, maybe 120-125 to Rice’s 240-250. Rice will still get plenty of catches though, especially with Boldin gone. He’s averaged 69.5 catches per season over the past 4 years, but will probably be closer to the 78 he had in 2009 or the 76 he had in 2011 than the 63 he had in 2010 or the 61 he had in 2012. I expect him to be 2^nd on the team in catches.

The one concern for their running game is the loss of Vonta Leach. Leach was a cap casualty after they drafted Kyle Juszczyk in the 4^th round. Juszyzck is a great fullback prospect (it’s very rare that one goes in the 4^th round), but he’s still just a rookie. Leach was ProFootballFocus’ top ranked fullback in each of the past two seasons and the 3^rd ranked in 2010. He was cut because he was making a ridiculous amount for a fullback on a cap scrapped team, but he’s still a very good player. Just ask Arian Foster, who has seen his YPA drop from 4.9 to 4.4 to 4.1 since Leach left Houston two years ago. It’s worth mentioning that Rice’s highest career YPA came in 2009 (5.3), when Leach was not around and when McGahee served as a capable complement.

Grade: A

[google_ad]

Offensive Line

Fortunately for the running backs, the Ravens have a very good offensive line, which is also fortunate for Joe Flacco. I already went into detail about how Bryant McKinnie’s presence at left tackle helped this offensive ine in pass protection in the playoffs, but they were a very good run blocking offensive line as well. McKinnie’s weight and age (34) are both concerns, but also long as he’s in shape, he should be able to solidify the much important blindside.

Michael Oher will play right tackle, where he’s been much more comfortable in his career (ironic for the star of The Blindside). Kelechi Osemele will play left guard, where the 2012 2^nd round pick looks like he could be on his way to being a very good player given his skill set and the way he played last post-season. Marshal Yanda is the other guard and probably their best offensive lineman. He started his career as a right tackle, but since moving to right guard, Yanda has ranked 3^rd and 2^nd among ProFootballFocus’ guards in the past 2 seasons respectively and heading into just his age 29 season I don’t see why he can’t continue to do so and make his 3^rd straight All-Pro. He’s equally good in pass protection and run blocking.

The lone new starter from their post-season offensive line will be at center, where one of Gino Gradkowski or AQ Shipley will take over for Matt Birk. Gradkowski played just 89 snaps as a rookie after being taken in the 4^th round, but he was drafted to be Birk’s heir apparent and should win the starting job. Shipley was brought in to give them another option just in case.

He came cheap both in salary and draft pick compensation and he actually graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 15^th ranked center in 2012, despite just starting 5 games (and playing half of 2 others) in place of an injured Samson Satele for the Colts. Though he’s an inexperienced player, I believe he could be a solid starter if given a chance. He run blocked well and gave up just 5 total pressures (0 sacks). Center is the most concerning spot on the line and along with McKinnie’s possible weight and age problems, they are the only real concerns on a very good overall offensive line for the Ravens.

Grade: A-

Defensive Line

Of the 10 starters they lost this off-season, 7 were on defense, but, as mentioned in the opening, they did a good job adding talent to replace them. While they lost 3 starters in the secondary and 3 in the linebacking corps, their defensive line is going to very much resemble the one they had last season. The Ravens play a base 3-4 defense with 3 down linemen, though they use a lot of sub packages and hybrid schemes.

One significant difference is that the Ravens will be having Haloti Ngata play more nose tackle, at least in 3-4 sets. He won’t be just a true nose tackle though and he’ll continue to be an every down defensive lineman. He led the whole front 7 in snaps played last season and could easily do so again this year. He struggled a bit through injuries and wasn’t quite as good as he normally is, but he was still ProFootballFocus’ 11^th ranked 3-4 defensive end, 9^th if you include playoffs.

His strength is stopping the run, which is why he is a natural fit to play the nose, but he generates some pass rush too, grading out above average and totaling 6 sacks, 14 hits, and 28 hurries on 609 pass rush snaps, a 7.9% pass rush rate. That’s why he’s able to stay on the field every down. With Lewis and Reed gone, the 29-year-old will be counted on to be a leader and he should have a better 2013 than 2012 now that he’s fully healthy.

The reason Ngata will be able to focus on playing nose tackle is because the Ravens added Chris Canty to rotate at 3-4 defensive end with Pernell McPhee and Arthur Jones. They did this rather than signing a pure nose tackle like veteran Ma’ake Kemoeatu was for them last year. He’s gone, but he won’t be a big loss as he’s a 34-year-old who graded out below average overall last year and who still remains a free agent as of this writing. 2010 2^nd round pick Terrence Cody was also deemed not fit to start by the Ravens. He’ll be a pure rotation player on the inside at best.

Canty comes over from New York, where he was a cap casualty. He missed the first 6 weeks of the season with a knee injury and only played 300 snaps overall, but he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 19^th ranked defensive tackle regardless. He’s scheme versatile, playing in both a 4-3 and a 3-4 in his career and doing so well, which makes him a good fit for the Ravens’ scheme. He should be a solid starter, assuming he doesn’t get hurt again, as he’s just in his age 31 season. Marcus Spears is another free agent edition, but he won’t play as much, if he even makes the roster. He’s a pure backup player who graded out below average on 394 snaps for the Cowboys last season.

Spears will slot behind holdovers Arthur Jones and Pernell McPhee, along with Canty. McPhee and Jones both graded out above average as starting 3-4 defensive ends, ranking 18^th and 16^th respectively at the position on ProFootballFocus, 13^th and 12^th respectively if you take into account their strong post-seasons. Both can play defensive tackle and defensive end in 4-3 packages. Brandon Williams is the other player who figures to be on the defensive line rotation. The 3^rd round pick rookie will compete with Terrence Cody to be the primary backup nose tackle and could cost Cody his roster spot. The Ravens have a lot of players who will rotate on their defensive line and overall I like their base defensive line more than last year’s with Canty taking Kemoeatu’s snaps and Ngata getting healthier.

Grade: B+

[yard_barker]

Linebackers

In 4-3 packages, Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil will serve as the defensive ends, but in base 3-4 packages, they’ll be the rush linebackers. Courtney Upshaw will be the primary backup at that position and Pernell McPhee has also been taking some snaps at rush linebacker, for what it’s worth, despite being around 280 pounds. Upshaw is also around 280 pounds as well, though they want him to lose weight. If he has a serious role in his 2^nd year after being taken in the 2^nd round out of Alabama, it will be as a pure two down run stopper, much like Jarret Johnson used to be.

He was an awful pass rusher as a rookie, showing no burst off the snap and recording just 2 sacks, 7 hits, and 13 hurries on 364 pass rush snaps, a 6.3% rate. Only 2 players graded out worse among 3-4 outside linebackers as a pass rusher and he also struggled in coverage, as you could expect at his size. However, he was the highest rated player at the position in terms of stopping the run. There won’t be a lot of snaps available behind Dumervil and Suggs though. The only reason Upshaw saw a significant amount of snaps last season was because Suggs missed 6 games with injury. In the post-season, he was a clear backup.

I already spoke about Dumervil in the opening. I think he’s a perfect fit in Baltimore. He excelled in a hybrid type scheme in 2009 under Mike Nolan, with 17 sacks, 7 hits, and 31 hurries on 419 pass rush snaps, a 13.1% rate. In 2011 and 2012 (after missing 2010 with injury), he wasn’t quite as good in Denver’s pure 4-3. He totaled 25 sacks, 18 hits, and 72 hurries on 1121 pass rush snaps in those 2 seasons, a 10.3% pass rush rate. He struggles against the run, but that won’t be as big of a deal in a base 3-4 and so did Paul Kruger. Dumervil should be able to at least come close to replacing Kruger’s pass rush production. Kruger had 15 sacks, 17 hits, and 43 hurries on 528 pass rush snaps, a 14.3% pass rush rate.

The other thing that will be huge for the Ravens is Suggs getting back to full health. Suggs essentially played through 2 season ending injuries last season, an incredibly valiant effort, but really did not produce, certainly not like the 2011 Defensive Player of the Year was used to. He played the run well, but had just 4 sacks, 6 hits, and 16 hurries on 379 pass rush snaps, a 6.8% rate. Post-season included, he was ProFootballFocus’ 26^th ranked rush linebacker out of 33.

That was a far cry from 2011, when he ranked 3^rd at his position, leading the position against the run and accumulating 14 sacks, 12 hits, and 37 hurries on 600 pass rush snaps, a 10.5% rate. He’s always been better against the run than rushing the passer, but he can also get after the quarterback. Assuming the soon to be 31-year-old didn’t wreck his body doing what he did last year, he should bounce back and the duo of him and Dumervil should actually give the Ravens an improved pass rush, despite losing Kruger, who was still relatively unproven and definitely overpaid by Cleveland.

On the inside, Daryl Smith and Arthur Brown will start, with Jameel McClain as the primary reserve and Upshaw maybe making an occasional cameo, considering he has been working out inside at times this off-season. Brown is a 2^nd round pick rookie, but he’s incredibly talented and as long as he’s healthy, I don’t see why he can’t be an above average starter and maybe even Defensive Rookie of the Year. Linebackers don’t usually have much of a transition period.

Smith, meanwhile, was ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2011, but has never played inside in a 3-4 before and played in just 117 snaps last year due to injury and is 31. The former concern should be eased by the fact that the Ravens run a hybrid, but the latter two are legitimate concerns. Still, it was a worthwhile signing and could easily get them a cheap, above average starter. McClain, as the top reserve, is a mediocre player coming off a serious neck injury. Upshaw might be their best option here in case of injury considering his run stuffing ability.

While Ray Lewis and Dannell Ellerbe are gone at middle linebacker, Smith and Brown aren’t a real downgrade. Lewis barely played last season until the playoffs and when he was on the field, he didn’t play well. His leadership will be missed, but his on the field play can easily be replaced. Ellerbe, meanwhile, was a solid starter, ranking 14^th among middle linebackers, but again I think he can be replaced. With Suggs healthy, I think this will be a better linebacking corps than it was last year.

Grade: B+

Secondary

One lost defensive starter that the Ravens didn’t replace is Cary Williams, but they could do even better than replacing him as Lardarius Webb is set to return from a torn ACL. While Williams is a very average starter who has graded out slightly below league average overall in the past 2 seasons, Webb was ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd ranked cornerback in 2011, allowing a 54.9% completion rate, 6.4 YPA, and no touchdowns, while picking off 8 interceptions, deflecting 12 passes, and committing 5 penalties.

He was off to another good start in 2012, allowing 11 catches on 24 attempts for 111 yards, no touchdowns, 1 interception, 3 deflections, and 2 penalties, but he tore his ACL week 6. He tore his other ACL earlier in his career, so it’s a concern, but he’s only heading into his age 28 season and if he comes back recovered and doesn’t get hurt again, he should be a more than capable #1 cornerback, something they lacked last season.

Opposite him, it will be a battle between Jimmy Smith and Corey Graham, a battle the Ravens are likely rooting for Smith to win. Smith was their first round pick in 2011, but he hasn’t played well in his first 2 years in the league. He’s got more natural talent though, while Graham is more of a slot cornerback than anything, and he’s reportedly finally gotten himself into shape going into a crucial 3^rd year in the league. If he can establish himself as a solid starter opposite Webb with Graham on the slot, this is a very good cornerback group. A positive sign from Smith: he allowed just 10 catches for 85 yards on 17 attempts with 3 deflections from week 15 on, after returning from an injury.

At safety, Michael Huff will take Ed Reed’s old free safety spot. Huff isn’t a future Hall of Famer like Reed is, but he might actually be an upgrade. He’s younger, going into his age 30 season, and he’s a solid starter. Last year, he played cornerback because of injuries and graded out slightly above average. In 2011, he was slightly below average at safety and in 2010 he was great at safety, grading out 2^nd at the position on ProFootballFocus. Meanwhile, Reed ranked 50^th out of 82 eligible safeties on ProFootballFocus. An aging player, Reed is close to done, while Huff can provide at least a year or two of solid starter caliber play. He also came at 6 million over 3 years, while Reed signed in Houston for 15 million over 3 years.

Matt Elam will replace Bernard Pollard at strong safety. Pollard rated 56^th out of 82 eligible safeties, something Elam should be able to at least do as a rookie. Overall, like the other 2 units of their defense, I think the secondary will be better than it was last year. Webb’s return will be a big part of that. The Ravens ranked an uncharacteristic 12^th in points allowed last year, allowing 21.5 points per game. I like their chances to get back in the top-10 this year. Offensively, they were a top-10 team, scoring 24.9 points per game, a number I think they can improve on slightly as well.

Grade: B+

Head Coach

John Harbaugh is just 1 of 5 active Head Coaches with a Super Bowl ring (Belichick, McCarthy, Tomlin, Coughlin) and the Ravens have made the playoffs in each of his first 5 years with the team, winning 67.7% of his games, including a 9-4 post-season record. They’ve won a playoff game in each of those 5 seasons and made 3 AFC championships. No NFL Head Coach has won more playoff games, overall games, and made more conference championships in his first 5 years as a Head Coach than John Harbaugh. He’s still slightly overshadowed by his brother Jim, even in victory, but he more than deserves his due.

Grade: A

Overall

I mentioned in the opening that I think the Ravens win more regular season games than they did last year. In the division, I think they win at least 4 or 5 games. They’ll probably beat Cleveland both times and Pittsburgh at least once. Cincinnati has talent, but Andy Dalton has shown a severe inability to beat playoff caliber teams. Assuming they play their starters in both games against the Bengals, they should win both of those games, but they do play them week 17 and could rest starters in the right situation, as they did last year in an eventual loss.

Outside of the division, they host Houston, Green Bay, Minnesota, New England, and the Jets. The Jets should be an easy home victory and I think Minnesota is going to have a tougher season this year than last. Houston, Green Bay, and New England are very tough opponents and they probably won’t win all 3, though they are a good home team. I think they come out of those 5 games with 3 or 4 wins, which puts them at 8-3 through the 11 mentioned games.

The road has been a trickier place for them, as they’re just .500 on the road in the past 4 seasons. They go to Denver, Miami, Buffalo, Chicago, and Detroit. I think they have a very good chance to win in Denver considering how well Super Bowl champs do week 1 and how disrespected they’ll probably feel as underdogs of more than a touchdown, but I don’t see more than 3-2 in those 5 games. Overall, I have them at 11-5 and winning their division for the 3^rd straight year. I don’t think they should be considered the Super Bowl favorite, but they’re a better team than they were last year. Once again, it’ll be all about executing in January and February. They’ll be in the mix, but I think Denver and New England both have more talent and possibly Houston as well.

Prediction: 11-5 1^st in AFC North

[switch_ad_hub]

Football Fan Spot

A site for football fans

Month: July 2013

New Orleans Saints 2013 NFL Season Preview

Carolina Panthers 2013 NFL Season Preview

Cleveland Browns 2013 NFL Season Preview

Cincinnati Bengals 2013 NFL Season Preview

Pittsburgh Steelers 2013 NFL Season Preview

2013 Cleveland Browns Fantasy Football Projections

2013 Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Football Projections

2013 Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Football Projections

2013 Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Football Projections

2013 Baltimore Ravens NFL Season Preview