2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews

Green Bay Packers 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Packers, Uncategorized

QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)

In his last 45 games, including the playoffs, Rodgers has thrown for 114 touchdowns, 20 interceptions, and 12738 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 41 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and 4529 yards. He’s also rushed for 1395 yards and 18 touchdowns in 5 years. There’s some concern with his offensive line, but he was sacked 51 times last season and still produced. He’s the #1 fantasy quarterback.

Projection: 4500 passing yards 40 passing touchdowns 9 interceptions 250 rushing yards 3 rushing touchdowns (365 pts standard, 445 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Eddie Lacy (Green Bay)

8/27/13: DuJuan Harris is out for the season with a knee injury. He was Lacy’s only real competition for carries. Fellow rookie Johnathan Franklins has appeared overmatched thus far, while neither Alex Green nor James Starks is very good. Lacy is still a rookie and he’s still on a pass heavy offense, but he has plenty of talent and he’ll have plenty of room to run and goal line opportunities on Green Bay’s talented offense. He’s a RB2 that could be drafted in the 2nd round if you want to double up on backs.

Eddie Lacy appears to be the favorite to be the lead back by a good margin. It’s tough to count on rookies, but Lacy has serious scoring potential in Green Bay’s offense and should surpass 200 carries if he stays healthy.

Projection: 240 carries for 1030 rushing yards 10 total touchdowns 31 catches for 250 receiving yards (188 pts standard, 219 pts PPR)

WR Randall Cobb (Green Bay)

Randall Cobb is going in his 3rd year in the league, a frequent breakout year for receivers and there’s definitely to possibility of a breakout for him. Cobb was 11th in the NFL among eligible wide receivers averaging 2.26 yards per route run, so he was an incredibly efficient target. However, he needs to cut down on the drops (of the 22 incompletions Rodgers threw to him, 11 were drops) and he needs to show more on the outside for the Packers to give him more snaps. I like his chances with Jennings gone, Nelson hurt, and Jones possibly losing playing time to the superior Cobb. Cobb might be a healthier Percy Harvin with a better quarterback. You can always count on him to get you another extra 100 yards on the ground too.

Projection: 93 catches for 1130 receiving yards 11 total touchdowns 10 carries for 100 yards (189 pts standard, 282 pts PPR)

WR Jordy Nelson (Green Bay)

8/25/13: Jordy Nelson returned to practice after knee surgery today, 2 weeks before the Packers’ first game of the season. It’s obviously a very good sign for his week 1 status and makes me a little bit more confident in a bounce back year.

Jordy Nelson caught 68 passes for 1263 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2011 and was off to an equally good season in 2012. Nelson caught 40 passes for 532 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns in the first 7 games of last season. That’s 91 catches for 1216 yards and 11 touchdowns over 16 games. However, a hamstring problem cost him 4 games and limited him in others. There was definitely bounce back potential, but he recently needed knee surgery and, however minor it was, it’s never what you want to hear. His status for week 1 is now doubtful. I still expect a bounce back year somewhat, but it hurts his stock.

Projection: 80 catches for 1120 receiving yards 10 touchdowns (172 pts standard, 252 pts PPR)

WR James Jones (Green Bay)

8/25/13: With Randall Cobb taking over a bigger role and Jordy Nelson coming back from injury, James Jones could see up to 100 fewer passing snaps than he did last season, so he’s unlikely to reach the 64 catches for 784 yards he had last season and even if he were to catch 64 passes again, it’s unlikely he’d convert 14 touchdowns. Something like 2010 (50/679/5) or 2011 (38/635/7) is much more likely. Leave him alone.

Jones is pretty much an average starting wide receiver that Rodgers makes look better. He averaged just 1.29 yards per route run, 66th out of 81 eligible wide receivers, last season and he could be losing some playing time to Randall Cobb, a much more efficient target last year. Jones saved his fantasy value by scoring on 14 of his 64 catches, but that kind of rate is impossible for anyone to keep up. Let someone else overpay for him.

Projection: 53 catches for 670 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns (103 pts standard, 156 pts PPR)

TE Jermichael Finley (Green Bay)

Jermichael Finley closed last season very well, catching 26 catches for 279 yards in the final 5 games of the season, but we’ve seen in the past he’s capable of being dominant for a short stretch of time. What we haven’t seen is him maintain that level of play over a full season as his 2011 season, in which he caught 55 passes for 767 yards and 8 touchdowns, remains his best season in 5 years in the league. I don’t expect anything different from him as in 2013.

Projection: 57 catches for 690 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (105 pts standard, 162 pts PPR)

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Chicago Bears 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Jay Cutler (Chicago)

In 3 years with the Broncos, Jay Cutler completed 62.5% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA, 54 touchdowns, and 37 interceptions, a quarterback rating of 87.1. However, going to the Bears stunted his statistical growth, as he’s completed 59.6% of his passes for an average of 7.1 YPA, 82 touchdowns, and 63 interceptions, a quarterback rating of 81.8. However, I don’t think he’s become a worse quarterback. In fact, he might have become a better quarterback as he’s matured. We just haven’t noticed because of his lack of supporting cast.

He should be noticeably better statistically this season with an offensive minded Head Coach and a better offensively supporting cast.  The Bears should also throw more frequently this season because they’ll have more drives (with the defense scoring on their own less often) and with Marc Trestman coming in as Head Coach. He also has underrated athleticism, rushing for 1116 yards and 6 touchdowns on 262 carries in 93 games thus far in his career. He also ran a 4.77 40 at The Combine, which isn’t bad. Trestman could utilize that athleticism more than any Head Coach ever has.

Projection: 3900 passing yards 24 passing touchdowns 16 interceptions 250 rushing yards 2 rushing touchdowns (257 pts standard, 305 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Matt Forte (Chicago)

Forte has missed just 7 games in 5 seasons (though they’ve all been in the last 2 seasons) and totaled 1529 touches (1262 carries, 267 receptions) in 75 games, 20.4 per game. He’s averaged 4.2 yards per carry and with more complementary offensive talent around him, he could see that number increase this season. As long as he doesn’t get hurt (always the caveat for running backs) or prematurely age going into his age 28 season, he should have another solid season.

Projection: 250 carries for 1100 rushing yards 9 total touchdowns 50 catches for 400 yards (204 pts standard, 254 pts PPR)

WR Brandon Marshall (Chicago)

8/28/13: Brandon Marshall is upset that the Bears are not taking his hip problem, as he recovers from surgery, seriously. While the hip could be a problem that limits him this season, the bigger concern is Marshall, a notorious headache for coaches, being at odds with his coaching staff and speaking out publicly unprompted about the issue. It’s not a serious issue either way, but it’s enough to give me pause with Marshall in the first 2 rounds of a draft.

After Brandon Marshall, who caught 118 passes for 1508 yards and 11 touchdowns on 181 attempts, no one else on the Bears had more than 44 catches (Matt Forte), 375 yards (Earl Bennett), 3 touchdowns (Alshon Jeffery), or 59 targets (Forte). Marshall was targeted on an absurd 181 on 462 aimed passes, 39.2%. That makes your passing game so predictable and one dimensional and is a big part of reason why 7 of the team’s 16 interceptions came on throws to Marshall. This year, there’s more talent around Marshall, which could hurt his production (though not too much as the Bears will pass more and he’ll see fewer triple teams), but it’ll definitely help their offense as a whole.

Projection: 91 catches for 1250 receiving yards 9 touchdowns (179 pts standard, 270 pts PPR)

WR Alshon Jeffery (Chicago)

8/28/13: With Marshall moving down, I’m moving Alshon Jeffery up, though Jeffery’s dominant pre-season alone might have been enough to move him up. He’s worth a flier in the later mid rounds and has WR3 upside.

As a rookie, Jeffery didn’t do much, catching just 24 passes for 367 yards and 3 touchdowns, but rookie receivers don’t usually do much. He also missed 6 games with injury and played a total of 445 snaps. Reports have been very positive going into his 2nd season in the league and he could, at least, be an average starter opposite Marshall and get open with Marshall drawing the coverage his way.

Projection: 60 catches for 750 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns (111 pts standard, 171 pts PPR)

TE Martellus Bennett (Chicago)

Bennett was a 2nd round pick in 2008 by the Cowboys, but he was stuck as a pure blocker behind Jason Witten in 4 years in Dallas. However, he excelled as a blocker and then in his first year as a starter with the Giants, he caught 55 passes for 626 yards and 5 touchdowns. He’s not a great pass catcher, but he’s one of the best all-around tight ends in the NFL. He should have similar receiving numbers this season.

Projection: 50 catches for 600 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (96 pts standard, 146 pts PPR)

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Detroit Lions 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Matt Stafford (Detroit)

One of the weird statistical things about the Lions in 2012 was that Matt Stafford set an NFL record with 727 passing attempts, but managed just 20 touchdowns. Well, somehow a running game that ran just 391 times on the season managed to steal 17 touchdowns away from Stafford, while backup Shaun Hill stole another 2 on 13 attempts. The Lions should remain very pass heavy this year so Stafford should throw a higher percentage of the team’s touchdowns.

There should also be more touchdowns to go around on an offense that figures to turn the ball over fewer times. He probably won’t throw the ball 727 times again, for the same reason why the Lions probably won’t run 72.5 plays per game again, but he could throw 30-35 touchdowns, average around the 6.9 yards per attempt he’s averaged for his career on about 650-660 throws, and keep his interception rate right around the 2.3%-2.4% it’s been at in both of his full seasons as a starter, which puts him around 16 interceptions.

Projection: 4550 passing yards 33 passing touchdowns 16 interceptions 100 rushing yards 1 rushing touchdown (298 pts standard, 364 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Reggie Bush (Detroit)

The Lions plan to utilize Bush the way the Saints utilized him, when he averaged 4.9 catches per game. That’s 78 catches over a 16 game season. That sounds like a lot, but he’s capable of doing so in this offense. The Lions have said they want to get him 80 catches. The inferior Joique Bell caught 52 passes in a part time role last season and Jahvid Best averaged 62 catches per 16 games during his short time as the Lions’ pass catching back before he got hurt. The only thing stopping Bush from getting 80 catches could be injuries. He missed 20 games in 5 seasons with the Saints and, though he only missed 1 in 2 years with the Dolphins, he’s now going into his age 28 season and his 8th year in the league.

Bush will probably also be their leading rusher, but he won’t get a ton of carries. For one, the Lions don’t run the ball very often. Two, Bush has never had more than 262 touches in a season and the Lions probably don’t want to go over that. They’ll prefer him to see his touches in the air (maybe 170 carries, 75 catches). Three, they do have two other backs capable of carrying the football. Joique Bell and Mikel Leshoure will see carries behind him.

Projection: 170 carries for 750 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 75 catches for 600 receiving yards (183 pts standard, 258 pts PPR)

RB Joique Bell (Detroit)

8/26/13: Joique Bell has beaten out Mikel Leshoure for the #2 back job behind Reggie Bush, so he’s the handcuff you want for the injury prone Bush. He’s also worth a pick on his own merits because he’s an excellent pass catcher and underrated runner who will see touches on this offense. Leshoure isn’t worth drafting.

Mikel Leshoure was a 2nd round pick in 2011, but has largely been a disappointment to this point in his career. He might not even win the #2 running back battle this year, as Joique Bell averaged 5.0 yards per carry to Leshoure’s 3.7 last season. Leshoure is also not near the pass catcher that Bell is and if Bush were to get hurt, Bell would probably take over his role. Leshoure will see some carries as an inside runner, but Bell will probably be 2nd among Detroit running backs in touches. If Bush is Darren Sproles, Bell is Pierre Thomas, who has averaged 152 touches in the last 2 seasons. He’s the handcuff you want for Bush owners and a worthwhile late round flier for anyone because of Bush’s injury history.

Projection: 110 carries for 520 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 44 catches for 330 receiving yards (109 pts standard, 153 pts PPR)

WR Calvin Johnson (Detroit)

Another one of the other weird statistical things about the Lions in 2012 was Calvin Johnson sitting the single season receiving record (surpassing Jerry Rice in week 16 no less), but scoring just 5 times. That total should increase for some of the same reasons that Stafford’s should. He probably won’t have a record setting season again, but he’s by far the best receiver on a team that passes a ridiculous amount, has a good young quarterback, and doesn’t have a lot of other passing options. He’s consistently able to beat double and triple teams and the 96 catches for 1681 yards he had in 2011 now seem like a floor. He should have around 1700 receiving yards again and almost definitely will break double digit touchdowns again.

Projection: 110 catches for 1750 receiving yards 12 touchdowns (247 pts standard, 357 pts PPR)

WR Ryan Broyles (Detroit)

Broyles was an incredibly productive collegiate receiver at the University of Oklahoma, catching 349 passes for 4586 yards and 45 touchdowns, but a torn ACL suffered late in his final collegiate season, along with a lack of elite size or speed, dropped him to the Lions in the 2nd round of the 2012 NFL Draft. However, he plays better than his measurables on tape and is a remarkably hard worker and quick healer.

He made his debut week 3 last season and eventually became a starter down the stretch, catching 22 passes for 310 yards and 2 touchdowns on 30 targets on 190 routes run, before tearing the other ACL. Once again, Broyles did a fantastic job recovering from that injury and has been practicing in Training Camp and is on pace to play week 1. Obviously, he’s an injury risk and he might not be 100%, but there’s some intriguing breakout potential for him as a secondary receiver opposite Johnson.

Projection: 60 catches for 760 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (106 pts standard, 166 pts PPR)

TE Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit)

Pettigrew struggled mightily last season, catching 59 passes for 567 yards and 3 touchdowns on 95 targets, with 9 drops. He averaged just 1.18 yards per route. The 2009 1st round pick is a good run blocker, but has largely been a disappointment since the Lions drafted him. He’s had better years and it’s possible the ankle injury he played through most of the season was part of why he struggled so much, but he’s never been much better, so I don’t see a big improvement.

Projection: 55 catches for 600 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (90 pts standard, 145 pts PPR)

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Minnesota Vikings 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Christian Ponder (Minnesota)

Christian Ponder averaged 5.4 yards per attempt in the 2nd half of last season after Percy Harvin got hurt and now Harvin is gone. The Vikings have brought in both Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson, but the former has seen better days, while the latter is incredibly raw and might not even start as a rookie. You can do a lot better in a QB2.

Projection: 3000 passing yards 17 passing touchdowns 13 interceptions 250 rushing yards 2 rushing touchdowns (199 pts standard, 233 pts PPR)

RB Adrian Peterson (Minnesota)

Of the 28 other players to ever rush for 1700+ yards in a season, only 3 exceeded their rushing total the following season. The average 1700+ yard rusher rushed for 615 fewer yards the following season. Sure, some of them got seriously hurt, but it’s not like it would be impossible for Peterson to do so and even when you take out the 4 players who didn’t make it to 200 carries the following season, they still averaged 474 yards fewer the following season. On top of that, those players also averaged 7/10ths of a yard fewer per carry, going from 5.1 yards per carry to 4.4 yards per carry. Now, Peterson is definitely not going to have a bad year. In fact, he’s still my pick to lead the NFL in rushing, but you can lead the NFL in rushing with 1600 yards.

Projection: 320 carries for 1630 rushing yards 12 total touchdowns 35 catches for 240 receiving yards (259 pts standard, 294 pts PPR)

WR Greg Jennings (Minnesota)

Jennings once averaged 75 catches for 1223 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns per season from 2008-2010, while not missing game due to injury, but in the past 2 seasons, he’s missed 11 games with injury and was limited to 103 catches for 1315 yards and 13 touchdowns total. Now he goes from the Brett Favre/Aaron Rodgers combination he spent his entire career with in Green Bay to one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL in Christian Ponder. He’s going into his age 30 season and has had a lot of trouble staying healthy lately. Receivers switching teams mid-season usually disappoint. And he’s also spent a lot of time this off-season talking about Rodgers and the Packers like a scorned ex-girlfriend, to the point where Vikings Head Coach Leslie Frazier had to tell him to stop. I don’t know if that’s a bad sign, but it’s not a good sign. Let him be someone else’s problem.

Projection: 60 catches for 770 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (107 pts standard, 167 pts PPR)

TE Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota)

In his 3rd year in the league, Rudolph could more than the 53 passes he caught last season and could average more than 9.3 yards per catch, but he’s unlikely to score a touchdown on 16.9% of his catches, especially on a team that scored just 18 touchdowns through the air last season (Rudolph had 9). Don’t get suckered in with the touchdown numbers. He’s a talented tight end, but his quarterback situation makes him a mere TE2.

Projection: 57 catches for 600 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (90 pts standard, 147 pts PPR)

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New York Jets 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Geno Smith (NY Jets)

8/29/13: Mark Sanchez sounds like he’ll miss multiple weeks with injury, so Geno Smith, by default, looks to be the Jets’ starting quarterback. It’ll probably remain that way even when Sanchez returns because the Jets won’t want to kill the rookie’s confidence by benching him mid-season. Don’t expect much from Smith though. The history of non-1st round pick quarterbacks in the NFL is pretty poor, especially as rookies (Andy Dalton and Russell Wilson are the exception not the rule). Smith looked awful in his first extended pre-season action during the 3rd pre-season game.

Projection: 3000 passing yards, 12 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 200 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (163 pts standard, 187 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Chris Ivory (NY Jets)

In 3 seasons with the Saints, Ivory rushed for 1307 yards and 8 touchdowns on just 256 carries, an impressive 5.0 YPC. Now going to the Jets, he’ll finally get a chance to be atop the depth chart. We’ve seen what Ivory has done in 250 carries in his career and it would be huge if he could do that again. He probably won’t do quite that as he’ll be running against stacked boxes much more often with Mark Sanchez/Geno Smith under center than he was with Drew Brees, but the Jets actually have a solid run blocking offensive line, so they’ll give him help. The other concern is if he can remain effective when getting 15-20 carries per game for an extended period of time, something he’s never done. He’s also had injury issues of his own and is currently battling hamstring problems in Training Camp.

Projection: 230 carries for 1010 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns 14 catches for 100 receiving yards (153 pts standard, 167 pts PPR)

RB Bilal Powell (NY Jets)

8/25/13: Bilal Powell has been working as the starter for the Jets this pre-season and getting more touches than Chris Ivory. This won’t continue into the season. The Jets are just limiting Ivory’s carries as he works through hamstring problems and trying to keep him fresh for the regular season. However, Powell is the clear #2 back and is worth a late round flier because he’ll be the starter should the injury prone Ivory miss any time. Hamstring problems tend to linger. He’ll also play the majority of the passing downs.

Projection: 120 carries for 440 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 25 catches for 200 receiving yards (88 pts standard, 113 pts standard)

WR Jeremy Kerley (NY Jets)

Likely to be without Santonio Holmes, the Jets will go forward with the highly uninspiring trio of Jeremy Kerley, Stephen Hill, and Braylon Edwards at wide receiver. Kerley is the only one who is any good in that bunch. He led the team in receiving with 56 catches for 827 yards and 2 touchdowns last season and he did it on 88 targets so he wasn’t just a volume receiver. The 5-9 188 pounder is primarily a slot specialist. He’s the only Jets receiver worth owning and even he doesn’t have much upside.

Projection: 54 catches for 800 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (110 pts standard, 164 pts PPR)

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Buffalo Bills 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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Because of the uncertainty of their quarterback situation, I will not project either of their quarterbacks. Neither should be drafted.

QB EJ Manuel (Buffalo)

8/25/13: EJ Manuel hasn’t officially been named the starting quarterback of the Bills, but he’s been by far their best quarterback this pre-season and he may win it by default regardless because of Kevin Kolb’s potentially career threatening concussion. The Bills signed veteran Matt Leinart, but he’s only insurance in case Manuel misses time after minor knee surgery. His status is in doubt for the very early part of the season, but when he does play, he could post QB2 numbers because of his rushing ability. Ryan Tannehill’s rookie numbers should serve as a template for Manuel’s He’ll be the starter by the time bye weeks roll around and he faces New Orleans’ pathetic defense week 8 so he could be a smart backup for a team with a starting quarterback with a bye week 8.

Projection: 3300 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 300 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (202 pts standard, 228 pts 6 pt leagues)

RB CJ Spiller (Buffalo)

New Head Coach Doug Marrone was one of the run heaviest coaches in College Football, running more than they passed in all 4 seasons as Syracuse’s Head Coach, and they want to make life as easy as possible for Manuel. CJ Spiller will be the workhorse, playing every down including on the goal line, and the Buffalo website predicted he could see 30 touches per game. That would be an absurd 480 touches over the course of the season. That won’t happen, as is often the case with lofty touch expectations for backs because some games just force you to throw out your game plan and pass more than you’d like.

However, Marrone said he wants to feed Spiller the ball “until he throws up” and he runs a very up tempo fast paced offense so he’ll definitely get 30 touches in some games. 360 touches (300 carries and 60 catches) over the season wouldn’t be absurd. Spiller certainly has plenty of talent. He’s averaged 5.4 yards per carry in his career, including a ridiculous 6.0 yards per carry last season. He was 6th in the NFL with 1703 yards from scrimmage despite just 250 touches. He probably won’t maintain his rates because that’s near impossible for anyone to maintain, especially getting as many touches as Spiller is expected to, but all signs are pointing to the 9th pick in the 2010 NFL Draft being one of the NFL leaders in all-purpose yardage and having a Pro-Bowl breakout year.

Projection: 290 carries for 1480 rushing yards and 10 total touchdowns 55 catches for 500 receiving yards (258 pts standard, 313 pts PPR)

RB Fred Jackson (Buffalo)

Fred Jackson is a talented back as well, but he’ll be a pure backup this season. That’s good for him as he heads into his age 32 season. He doesn’t have as much tread on his tires as most 32-year-old backs, not making his NFL debut until his age 26 season and touching the ball just 1141 times over the last 6 seasons, but he still seems to be breaking downs. He’s missed 12 games in the last 2 seasons combined and managed just 3.8 yards per carry in 2012. He’ll see still some work as the #2 back in a run heavy offense, but he’s unlikely to post big numbers unless Spiller gets hurt. He did average 5.5 yards per carry in 2011 before getting hurt though and has averaged 4.5 yards per carry for his career, so he is talented. He’s a handcuff for Spiller owners and a solid late round choice.

Projection: 130 carries for 570 receiving yards 4 total touchdowns 23 catches for 170 receiving yards (98 pts standard, 121 pts PPR)

WR Steve Johnson (Buffalo)

Johnson has been very consistent with 82/1073/10, 76/1004/7, and 79/1046/6 seasons and hasn’t missed a game despite playing through various ailments, but he could see his numbers dip this season. He has a raw rookie quarterback and the Bills will run more. He’s largely a volume receiver, averaging 138 targets per season, but could see that drop down to 120 this season.

Projection: 63 catches for 900 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (126 pts standard, 189 pts PPR)

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Miami Dolphins 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Ryan Tannehill (Miami)

8/18/13: Tannehill gets a small stock down with Dustin Keller out for the season.

Ryan Tannehill gets two new weapons to work with in Mike Wallace and Dustin Keller. Wallace may be overrated, but he’ll give them an upgrade on the outside, as Keller will at tight end. They have serious issues at left tackle, which could cancel some of that out, but I do expect Tannehill to improve on last year’s numbers, even if only because he has another year of experience and because the Dolphins will be passing more often. He’s just a QB2, but few QB2s have more upside.

Projection: 3600 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 200 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (220 pts standard, 258 pts 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Lamar Miller (Miami)

Daniel Thomas has shown very little in his two years as a pro, rushing for 906 yards on 256 carries (just 3.5 YPC) and the coaching staff that drafted him is gone. Miller is the clear starter at this point in the off-season and that does not figure to change. He’s a solid bet for 1000 yards as the new feature back in Miami and should have right around the 227 carries Reggie Bush had last season.

Projection: 230 carries for 1010 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 25 catches for 180 receiving yards  (161 pts standard, 186 pts PPR)

WR Mike Wallace (Miami)

Wallace held out long into Training Camp last off-season, putting himself above the team and was not the same all season. Wallace was ProFootballFocus’ 91st ranked wide receiver out of 105 eligible. He caught just 55.2% of the passes thrown his way and averaged just 13.1 yards per catch, catching 64 passes for 838 yards and 8 touchdowns. Wallace has demonstrated for the past year or so that he’d rather get paid above anything, holding out at his team’s expense and then chasing the money and going to Miami so it was probably smart of the Steelers not to lock him up long term (not like they had the cap space, but still). He could easily coast now that he’s been paid and he has a downgrade at quarterback from Ben Roethlisberger. On top of that, the track record of receivers switching teams is dubious at best. Stay away and let him be someone else’s problem.

Projection: 60 catches for 850 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (121 pts standard, 181 pts PPR)

WR Brian Hartline (Miami)

8/18/13: Hartline could see a few more underneath targets with Keller out for the year. He’s also shown much better chemistry with Tannehill than Mike Wallace. He’s more comfortable in the system and with a poor offensive line, Tannehill is going to have to settle for shorter throws more than he’d like.

Hartline caught 74 passes for 1083 yards in the 2009 4th round pick’s breakout 4th season, but he did benefit from being targeted on 118 throws, 23.4% of the Dolphins’ pass attempts. He also scored just once, compared to 3 interceptions when thrown to, and averaged just 3.2 yards after catch per catch and graded out 26th on ProFootballFocus in pass catching grade among wide receivers. He also had close to a quarter of his production in one 253 yard game week 4 and caught 2 or fewer passes on 5 separate occasions. He’s a solid secondary receiver, but nothing more. He could still lead the team in receiving, with Wallace serving more as a downfield decoy. He does have greater familiarity with the quarterback and the playbook.

Projection: 68 catches for 900 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (120 pts standard, 188 pts PPR)

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New England Patriots 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Tom Brady (New England)

The Patriots may pass fewer times and Brady may average fewer yards per attempt this season, as he ages and with his receiving corps on the decline, but he’ll make the best out of what he has and he remains a top level fantasy quarterback. He’s scored an average of 39 times in the last 3 seasons, while throwing an interception on just 1.4% of his throws.

Projection: 4400 passing yards 35 touchdowns 12 interceptions 70 rushing yards 2 rushing touchdowns (311 pts standard, 381 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Stevan Ridley (New England)

In his first year as a starter, Stevan Ridley rushed for 1263 yards and 12 touchdowns on 290 attempts last season. The Patriots could run even more this season, missing weapons in the passing game, but still planning on running the NFL’s fastest pace. He has a great offensive supporting cast and should continue to put up big rushing numbers. He just doesn’t give you anything in the passing game.

Projection: 300 carries for 1350 rushing yards 12 total touchdowns 7 catches for 50 receiving yards (212 pts standard, 219 pts PPR)

RB Shane Vereen (New England)

Danny Woodhead is gone so Vereen will take over a bigger role in the running game. Woodhead and Vereen combined for 138 carries last season and Vereen could be around there this year, even before you consider that the Patriots might run more. Vereen is also a good bet to exceed Woodhead’s 40 catches for 446 yards and 3 touchdowns from last season. He is a more talented and explosive back and including the playoffs, he had 15 catches for 254 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns on just 117 pass snaps last season and he’s been lining up all over the formation this off-season and he could be the Patriots’ version of Darren Sproles or Reggie Bush. He could get 200 touches.

Projection: 140 carries for 630 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 60 catches for 500 receiving yards (149 pts standard, 209 pts PPR)

WR Danny Amendola (New England)

I won’t project Amendola to match the 112 catches Welker averaged per season in New England. Welker’s biggest advantage over Amendola is his sturdiness. Welker missed just 3 games in 6 seasons with the Patriots, while Amendola has played in just 42 of 64 possible games to this point in his career. On top of that, Welker’s greatest talent was his chemistry with Tom Brady and that’s something Amendola might not necessarily have. Welker was never a big touchdown threat either, scoring an average of 6.2 times per season in 6 years. However, he’ll clearly be a big part of the offense should he stay healthy.

Projection: 100 catches for 1100 receiving yards and 6 total touchdowns (146 pts standard, 246 pts PPR)

WR Kenbrell Thompkins (New England)

Thompkins seems to have a strong hold on the starting job opposite Danny Amendola. Ordinarily, it’s very, very tough to trust rookie receivers, especially undrafted rookie receivers, but Brandon Lloyd caught 74 passes for 911 yards and 4 touchdowns as a starter and he didn’t even play that well. There’s a reason he’s unsigned as of this writing. Thompkins probably won’t reach those numbers with Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce, and Julian Edelman capable of stealing snaps from yet, but he’s absolutely worth a late round sleeper and he’s the other New England wideout to own after Amendola.

Projection: 60 catches for 750 receiving yards and 5 total touchdowns (105 pts standard, 165 pts PPR)

TE Rob Gronkowski (New England)

Sure he’s a major injury risk, but Gronkowski has scored 36 times in his last 35 games. He’s worth his current ADP in the 4th round even if you can only get 10-12 games out of him. Tight end is a deep enough position that you can get by with a TE2 for a few weeks, but it’s thin enough at the top that Gronk could easily lead the position in points per game played, as he has in each of the last 2 seasons.

Projection: 60 catches for 850 receiving yards and 10 total touchdowns (145 pts standard, 205 pts PPR)

TE Zach Sudfield (New England)

Like Thompkins, Sudfield is impressing big time as an undrafted free agent. He might be their #2 tight end behind Rob Gronkowski and he’s capable of playing both the Gronkowski and Hernandez role. With Gronkowski’s uncertainty and Hernandez being in jail, Sudfield is worth a pick as a late round flier.

Projection: 50 catches for 600 receiving yards and 5 total touchdowns (90 pts standard, 140 pts PPR)

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Oakland Raiders 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Raiders, Uncategorized

QB Terrelle Pryor (Oakland)

8/29/13: Terrelle Pryor appears to have won the Raiders’ starting job. He might be the worst passer of any of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL this season, but the Raiders will be trailing an awful lot so he’ll get a lot of pass attempts and he’ll add value on the ground. He’ll be a better fantasy quarterback than real quarterback. He’s only a QB2 in deep leagues though because he could easily be benched for Matt Flynn at some point this season, but there’s upside with him if he can make all 16 starts.

Projection: 3200 passing yards, 13 passing touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 400 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (204 pts standard, 230 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Darren McFadden (Oakland)

McFadden’s supporters are always making excuses for him. Last year it was that he didn’t fit the blocking scheme (does that explain why he averaged just 1.9 yards per carry after contact, 3rd worst in the NFL, and broke just 16 tackles on 216 carries?). However, the fact remains that we’re entering year 6 of Darren McFadden in NFL and he’s never had more than 223 carries in a season, he averages just 4.3 yards per carry for his career, he’s coming off of a season in which he averaged just 3.3 yards per carry, and he’s played just 57 of 80 possible games, maxing out with 13 games played in a season. At his current ADP in the 3rd round, let him be someone else’s problem. He’s Ryan Mathews with a better PR team.

Projection: 200 carries for 880 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 43 catches for 320 receiving yards (156 pts standard, 199 pts PPR)

WR Denarius Moore (Oakland)

Moore had a very promising rookie year, catching 33 passes for 618 yards and 5 touchdowns on just 357 pass snaps. However, he struggled to live up to expectations in 2012, catching just 51 passes for 714 yards and 7 touchdowns on 520 pass snaps, catching just 46.4% of his targets, and dropping 9 passes, giving him one of the worst drop rates at his position. He could breakout in his 3rd year in the league, when so many receivers break out, with Brandon Myers and Darrius Heyward-Bey gone. However, his inconsistency dates back to his days at Tennessee, part of why he went in the 5th round, and his deep threat ability doesn’t make him that compatible with weaker armed Matt Flynn at quarterback.

Projection: 51 catches for 830 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (119 pts standard, 170 pts PPR)

WR Rod Streater (Oakland)

Rod Streater, more of a possession receiver, figures to be the more compatible with Flynn among their starting receivers. The undrafted rookie showed what he could do down the stretch, catching 18 passes for 351 receiving yards and 1 touchdown in his final 5 games, after struggling to live up to the expectations of his strong pre-season early in the year. He might be their leading receiver this year.

Projection: 57 catches for 810 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (111 pts standard, 168 pts PPR)

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San Diego Chargers 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Chargers, Uncategorized

QB Phillip Rivers (San Diego)

8/6/13: Rivers has to get a stock down with Alexander going down for the season. His receiving corps sucks even more now.

Philip Rivers has seen his production drop off severely over the past 3 seasons. In 2010, he completed 66.0% of his passes for an average of 8.7 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, a QB rating of 101.8, on a team that ranked 2nd in the NFL, scoring 27.6 points per game. In 2011, he completed 62.9% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions, an 88.7 QB rating, on a team that ranked 5th in the NFL scoring 25.4 points per game.

In 2012, he completed 64.1% of his passes for an average of 6.8 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions on a team that ranked 20th in the NFL, scoring 21.9 points per game. He also fumbled 13 times. It’s really tough to tell how much of that can be attributed to his own decline as he ages (he’s going into his age 32 season) and how much can be attributed to the lack of talent around him, but for fantasy purposes, it won’t matter. He will continue to be a mere QB2. He’s unlikely to match the 26 touchdowns he threw for last season because it’s unlikely the Chargers will score just 4 times on the ground again.

Projection: 3700 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 60 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (212 pts standard, 256 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Ryan Matthews (San Diego)

Mathews looked on his way to a big time breakout year in 2012, with backup Mike Tolbert no longer stealing carries from him and coming off a season 2011 season in which he averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 222 carries, with 50 catches for 455 yards, and 6 total touchdowns. However, injuries reared their head, as they always have for him, limiting him to just 184 carries, 3.8 yards per carry, 1 touchdown and 2 broken clavicles.

He’s missed 10 games in his first 3 years in the league, never playing more than 14 games, and his injury problems date back to his collegiate days. The new regime does not seem nearly as bullish on his upside as the old one and he figures to work in a running back committee with Ronnie Brown and Danny Woodhead. He may be better, more efficient, and less likely to get hurt being used in this fashion, but it’s starting to look like he’ll never be the lead back and LaDainian Tomlinson replacement they were expecting.

Projection: 200 carries for 840 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 40 catches for 290 receiving yards (149 pts standard, 189 pts PPR)

RB Danny Woodhead (San Diego)

Danny Woodhead is the closest thing they’ve had to Darren Sproles since he left, but he’s had just 250 carries in the last 3 seasons and, at 5-8 190, isn’t capable of carrying much of a load. His biggest impact will come in the passing game. He’s worth a late round pick in PPR leagues.

Projection: 90 carries for 410 rushing yards 3 total touchdowns 50 catches for 400 receiving yards (99 pts standard, 149 pts PPR)

WR Vincent Brown (San Diego)

With Danario Alexander done for the year and Malcom Floyd dealing with an injury, Vincent Brown becomes the #1 receiver. Brown missed all of last season with a broken ankle and he had trouble with hamstring problems earlier in Training Camp, but he flashed as a 3rd round rookie in 2011 and now is going into his 3rd year in the league, which tends to be a breakout year for young receivers. He caught 19 passes for 329 yards and 2 touchdowns on 38 targets and 226 routes run in 2011. He could post good numbers simply as a volume receiver.

Projection: 56 catches for 820 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns (118 pts standard, 174 pts PPR)

TE Antonio Gates (San Diego)

8/6/13: Gates gets a minor stock up with Alexander going down, but like Floyd I still don’t expect much.

Antonio Gates looks like he’s in the beginning of the end of his career. Despite plenty of opportunity, Gates managed just 49 catches for 538 yards and 7 touchdowns last season, despite actually playing in 15 games for the first time since 2009. He has a history of injury problems, missing 10 games in the last 3 seasons and being limited in countless others and, going into his age 33 season, it looks like it’s all caught up with him. He’s unlikely to improve much upon those numbers. His biggest impact will be around the goal line, as he’s still managed 24 touchdowns over 38 games over the last 3 seasons. He hasn’t had fewer than 7 touchdowns since his rookie year in 2003.

Projection: 54 catches for 610 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns (103 pts standard, 157 pts PPR)

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