Year: 2013

Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Colts, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (4-0) at Indianapolis Colts (3-1)

Ordinarily, the Seahawks struggle on the road, in addition to dominating at home. Since 2007, they are 17-37 SU and 22-31 ATS on the road, as opposed to 34-18 SU and 35-16 ATS at home. However, they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road, including wins in Carolina and Houston this season. Those games were close, but they still covered and they’ve been playing very, very good football dating back to the middle of last season.

They’ve won 12 of their last 14 overall dating back to the middle of last season, as Russell Wilson has completed 221 of 341 (64.8%) for 3011 yards (8.8 YPA), 25 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. They’ve outscored opponents by an average of 16.5 points per game over last 14 games overall, including 7.4 points per game on the road. They are also 12-2 ATS in those 14 games. They’re a dominant football team with a very strong home field advantage, rather than just an above average football team with a very strong home field advantage that shows its true colors on the road. I thought they were the latter before the season, but I’ve changed my mind, but I don’t feel this line reflects that.

Indianapolis could be a very solid football team, but I’m not 100% sold on them. They had 7 wins by 7 points or fewer against teams that finished with 7 wins or fewer in 2012. For the first two games of the season, it looked like the same old Colts, barely beating a bad Oakland team at home and then being unable to pull a win out of their ass at home for the Dolphins week 2. Things have changed in the past two weeks obviously, as they’ve blown out both the 49ers and the Jaguars, but it’s possible that the 49er game was just a fluke and the Jaguar game was just, well, a Jaguar game. They are pretty much the same personnel wise as they were 2 weeks ago and it’s hard to believe they suddenly just became a significantly better team. I guess you could point to the Trent Richardson trade, but he’s rushed for 95 yards on 33 carries in 2 games, so he’s not making much of an impact.

The Seahawks are also 8-6 ATS on the road as favorites, even dating back to 2007 and, in their 2nd straight road game, being away from home won’t be as big of a deal, even at a 1 PM ET start in the Eastern Time Zone. The Seahawks are 7-5 ATS in their 2nd straight road game, even dating back to 2007, and it’s very likely the Seahawks have spent the week practicing somewhere in the Eastern Time Zone, given that they weren’t far away last week in Houston. That’ll negate some of the Time Zone effect. Besides, teams are 52-33 ATS as road favorites off of a win as road favorites since 2002. I’m not incredibly confident, in case the Colts actually are for real, but the Seahawks should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 20 Indianapolis Colts 13

Pick against spread: Seattle -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers trade OLB Jon Beason to the New York Giants

stevenlourie Giants, Panthers, Uncategorized

Trade for Panthers: There was a time when Jon Beason was one of the better middle linebackers in football and he was given a 5 year, 50 million dollar deal with 25 million guaranteed after the 2010 season, but he missed 28 of 32 games in 2011 and 2012 with injuries and, even at just 28 years old, those injuries have sapped his ability. Upon his return this season, he was moved to a two down outside linebacker role and had his base salary restricted down to just 1 million (with incentives up to 3.25 million). After struggling to start the season, he was benched and now he has been shipped to the Giants for a late round pick. Beason wasn’t serving any purpose for them. Credit them for getting something for him, even if it was just a late round pick

Grade: A

Trade for Giants: The Giants definitely need linebacker help and they aren’t completely out of it even at 0-4 because of their division and they can cut Beason penalty free after the season. However, this move probably won’t improve them at all.

Grade: C

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New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Falcons, Jets, Uncategorized

New York Jets (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-3)

Ordinarily, the Falcons dominate at home and ordinarily they dominate off of a loss, at least in the Matt Ryan era. In which started by Matt Ryan, the Falcons are 34-8 straight up at home, including 25-16 ATS. Off of a loss, Matt Ryan is 18-5 ATS. However, they were at home off of a loss last week and they still lost to the Patriots, in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score would have suggested. Though the Falcons lost by just 7, the Falcons’ win probability was about 1% with 6:18 left to go in the 4th quarter. It took an onside kick recovery to even make it competitive.

It’s very, very likely the Falcons just aren’t that good. I had them going 8-8 at the beginning of the season (thanks to a tougher schedule, off-season losses, and the fact that they’d have less “luck” recovering fumbles and winning close games). However, thanks to the Falcons’ injuries (Sean Weatherspoon, Steven Jackson, Kroy Biermann, Roddy White, Sam Baker), they might be 8-8 at best to finish this season. This is probably as bad of a Falcon team as we’ve seen as 2007, the final year before Matt Ryan/Mike Smith.

Given that, I don’t think they deserve to be 10 point favorites here, even at home and off of a loss. Besides, they are just 7-6 ATS under Matt Ryan as home favorites of a touchdown or more and have won just 1 home game by more than 10 points in their last 12 home games. The Jets, their opponents this week, aren’t terrible. They can’t move the ball offensively and having Santonio Holmes out and Stephen Hill being a game time decision at best won’t help. However, they have a fantastic defense that has allowed opponents to move the chains on 61% of chances, the best rate in the NFL.

They’ll be able to frustrate Matt Ryan all game, especially with a poor offensive line and running game unable to take the pressure off of him and a limited Roddy White, who re-aggravated his ankle injury against New England. They have one of the best front 7s and defensive fronts in the league and can absolutely dominate this game in the trenches.  The Jets also have a situational trend on their side. Teams are 90-55 ATS as road dogs off a road loss since 2008 and cover at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. It’s not a big play on the Jets because of the situational trends on the Falcons’ side and the Jets’ injuries, but they should be the right side. This line is too big. The Falcons are my Survivor Pick, however, in a tough week for Survivor Picks.

Atlanta Falcons 20 New York Jets 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: NY Jets +10

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Last week: 1

Record: 4-0

The Broncos have a higher points differential than the Seahawks (88 to 62), but the Seahawks have a better ratio of points for and points against than the Broncos, scoring 109 points to 47 points for their opponents (2.32), as opposed to 179 points for the Broncos, as opposed to 91 points for their opponents (1.97). The Seahawks have arguably played the tougher schedule, as well. They could absolutely beat Denver on a neutral field. They have the secondary to limit Denver’s passing offense and are better suited to winning a game in the cold later in the season, particularly in a cold weather Super Bowl.

Week 4 Studs

C Lemuel Jeanpierre

LE Red Bryant

LE Cliff Avril

RE Michael Bennett

DT Brandon Mebane

Week 4 Studs

RT Michael Bowie

RG JR Sweezy

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Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos, Uncategorized

Last week: 2

Record: 4-0

You could definitely call the Broncos 1b to the Seahawks’ 1a. I have the Broncos 2nd here. I think in a cold weather Super Bowl, the Seahawks would be at an advantage. That being said, the Broncos are playing out of their minds right now. Peyton Manning is completing 75.0% of his passes for an average of 9.4 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and no interceptions. He won’t play THIS well all season, but he and the Broncos have a very good chance to break the touchdown record (50), the yardage record (5476), and the points record (589).

Week 4 Studs

QB Peyton Manning

WR Demaryius Thomas

LT Chris Clark

RT Orlando Franklin

RG Louis Vasquez

Week 4 Duds

CB Tony Carter

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New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Saints, Uncategorized

Last week: 3

Record: 4-0

Right now, I think the Saints are the 3rd best team in the NFL and could compete with Seattle or Denver on a neutral field. They are 3rd in the NFL in terms of moving the chains, doing so on 81% of chances. A strong offense is nothing new in New Orleans. Even with Sean Payton gone last year, the Saints were 4th in the NFL in points scored behind only the Patriots and Broncos. However, they are also playing very well on defense, allowing opponents to move the chains on just 66% of chances, 3rd best in the NFL. This is a huge change from last year, when they allowed the 2nd most points per game in the league and surrendered the most yards in NFL history. They are +15% in differential in terms moving the chains, as opposed to how often their opponents are. That’s the best in the NFL through 4 games.

Week 4 Studs

QB Drew Brees

ROLB Junior Galette

Week 4 Duds

None

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New England Patriots: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots, Uncategorized

Last week: 4

Record: 4-0

Are the Patriots lucky to be 4-0? Absolutely. They’ve had a very easy schedule and 3 of their wins have come by a touchdown or less. That being said, being 4-0 is certainly better than being 2-2 and things will only get better for the Patriots going forward as they start to get weapons back, starting likely with Danny Amendola this week. If the Patriots are at close to full strength later in the season for a home game against the Broncos, I don’t know why they couldn’t go toe to toe with Manning and win that game.

Week 4 Studs

LT Nate Solder

C Ryan Wendell

CB Aqib Talib

Week 4 Duds

None

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San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers, Uncategorized

Last week: 5

Record: 2-2

They still have issues, which I why I’m not moving them back up, but the 49ers looked as good as I knew they were against the Rams, blowing them out 35-11 in St. Louis. Now they have 10 days before a big Sunday Night Football matchup with the Texans. They should continue to play well and prove their rough start was a fluke, especially with Patrick Willis expected to return.

Week 4 Studs

FB Bruce Miller

LT Joe Staley

LG Mike Iupati

DT Glenn Dorsey

MLB NaVorro Bowman

CB Tarell Brown

Week 4 Duds

QB Colin Kaepernick

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Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Last week: 12 (+5)

Record: 4-0

The Chiefs aren’t in the top-4 with the other 4-0 teams because their opponents have a combined record of 3-13. They’ve faced 3/4s of arguably the worst division in football, the NFC East, along with a Jacksonville team that’s worse than any team since the 2008 Lions and even that’s a debate. They won’t be able to rely on winning the turnover battle every game going forward and in the first game they didn’t win the turnover battle, they were stuck in a tough battle at home with the 0-4 Giants, before a punt return blew the game open. They’re a very solid football team, but all 6 teams ahead of them on this list are greater contenders for the Super Bowl.

Week 5 Studs

QB Alex Smith

LOLB Justin Houston

ROLB Tamba Hali

SS Eric Berry

Week 5 Duds

RT Donald Stephenson

LG Geoff Schwartz

C Rodney Hudson

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