San Diego Chargers 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

August 4, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Chargers, Uncategorized

QB Phillip Rivers (San Diego)

8/6/13: Rivers has to get a stock down with Alexander going down for the season. His receiving corps sucks even more now.

In 2012, he completed 64.1% of his passes for an average of 6.8 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions on a team that ranked 20th in the NFL, scoring 21.9 points per game. He also fumbled 13 times. It’s really tough to tell how much of that can be attributed to his own decline as he ages (he’s going into his age 32 season) and how much can be attributed to the lack of talent around him, but for fantasy purposes, it won’t matter. He will continue to be a mere QB2. He’s unlikely to match the 26 touchdowns he threw for last season because it’s unlikely the Chargers will score just 4 times on the ground again.

Projection: 3700 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 60 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (212 pts standard, 256 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Ryan Matthews (San Diego)

Mathews looked on his way to a big time breakout year in 2012, with backup Mike Tolbert no longer stealing carries from him and coming off a season 2011 season in which he averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 222 carries, with 50 catches for 455 yards, and 6 total touchdowns. However, injuries reared their head, as they always have for him, limiting him to just 184 carries, 3.8 yards per carry, 1 touchdown and 2 broken clavicles.

He’s missed 10 games in his first 3 years in the league, never playing more than 14 games, and his injury problems date back to his collegiate days. The new regime does not seem nearly as bullish on his upside as the old one and he figures to work in a running back committee with Ronnie Brown and Danny Woodhead. He may be better, more efficient, and less likely to get hurt being used in this fashion, but it’s starting to look like he’ll never be the lead back and LaDainian Tomlinson replacement they were expecting.

Projection: 200 carries for 840 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 40 catches for 290 receiving yards (149 pts standard, 189 pts PPR)

RB Danny Woodhead (San Diego)

Danny Woodhead is the closest thing they’ve had to Darren Sproles since he left, but he’s had just 250 carries in the last 3 seasons and, at 5-8 190, isn’t capable of carrying much of a load. His biggest impact will come in the passing game. He’s worth a late round pick in PPR leagues.

Projection: 90 carries for 410 rushing yards 3 total touchdowns 50 catches for 400 receiving yards (99 pts standard, 149 pts PPR)

WR Vincent Brown (San Diego)

With Danario Alexander done for the year and Malcom Floyd dealing with an injury, Vincent Brown becomes the #1 receiver. Brown missed all of last season with a broken ankle and he had trouble with hamstring problems earlier in Training Camp, but he flashed as a 3rd round rookie in 2011 and now is going into his 3rd year in the league, which tends to be a breakout year for young receivers. He caught 19 passes for 329 yards and 2 touchdowns on 38 targets and 226 routes run in 2011. He could post good numbers simply as a volume receiver.

Projection: 56 catches for 820 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns (118 pts standard, 174 pts PPR)

TE Antonio Gates (San Diego)

8/6/13: Gates gets a minor stock up with Alexander going down, but like Floyd I still don’t expect much.

Antonio Gates looks like he’s in the beginning of the end of his career. Despite plenty of opportunity, Gates managed just 49 catches for 538 yards and 7 touchdowns last season, despite actually playing in 15 games for the first time since 2009. He has a history of injury problems, missing 10 games in the last 3 seasons and being limited in countless others and, going into his age 33 season, it looks like it’s all caught up with him. He’s unlikely to improve much upon those numbers. His biggest impact will be around the goal line, as he’s still managed 24 touchdowns over 38 games over the last 3 seasons. He hasn’t had fewer than 7 touchdowns since his rookie year in 2003.

Projection: 54 catches for 610 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns (103 pts standard, 157 pts PPR)

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San Diego Chargers 2013 NFL Season Preview

August 4, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Chargers, Uncategorized

Introduction

After averaging 11.2 wins per season from 2004-2009, the Chargers have averaged just 8 wins per season over the past 3 seasons. Norv Turner, Head Coach since 2007, gets a lot of the blame and was rightfully fired, but recently fired GM AJ Smith deserves more of the blame for their recent decline. The Chargers have done a terrible job of drafting and bringing in new talent over the past few years.

Eric Weddle in the 2^nd round in 2007 is the last Pro-Bowler they’ve drafted and, aside from him, the only players who remain on their roster from the 2005-2009 draft classes are 1^st round bust Larry English, a reserve linebacker, and mediocre starting guard Jeromey Clary. The results from their 2010-2012 drafts don’t seem much more promising. Sure the coaching staff deserves some of the blame for terrible player developmental, but the problem with this team stems back to their front office.

Both Turner and Smith are gone, but this isn’t going to be a one year fix. Gone are Vincent Jackson, Darren Sproles, LaDainian Tomlinson, Marcus McNeill, Kris Dielman, Shawne Merriman, Antonio Cromartie, among others, and only a declining Antonio Gates and quarterback Philip Rivers remain from their mid-to-late 2000s glory days. They didn’t replace any of those guys. Attempts to build their roster through free agency only produced free agency busts Eddie Royal and Robert Meachem. Looking at their roster, only Weddle would rank among the top-10 at his respective position in the NFL.

Quarterback

Philip Rivers has seen his production drop off severely over the past 3 seasons. In 2010, he completed 66.0% of his passes for an average of 8.7 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, a QB rating of 101.8, on a team that ranked 2^nd in the NFL, scoring 27.6 points per game. In 2011, he completed 62.9% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions, an 88.7 QB rating, on a team that ranked 5^th in the NFL scoring 25.4 points per game. In 2012, he completed 64.1% of his passes for an average of 6.8 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions on a team that ranked 20^th in the NFL, scoring 21.9 points per game. He also fumbled 13 times.

However, it’s really tough to tell how much of that can be attributed to his own decline as he ages (he’s going into his age 32 season) and how much can be attributed to the lack of talent around him. They ranked 31^st in the NFL on the ground, rushing for 3.6 yards per carry last season, 31^st in the NFL in pass blocking efficiency, and had 8 different players play at least 100 snaps at wide receiver or tight end. It’s not a situation conducive to a quarterback’s success and it also makes it very tough for the Chargers to evaluate Rivers and his future with the organization. He’s owed 13.8 million in 2014 and 15.75 million in 2015, neither of which is guaranteed, before hitting free agency in 2016. The Chargers have a big decision to make on his future in the next 2-3 seasons and it won’t be an easy one to make.

ProFootballFocus thinks he’s seriously declined, grading him out as the league’s #25 ranked throwing quarterback on tape in 2012, down from 6^th in 2011 and 1^st in 2010. They also note he led the position with 11 penalties last season. He also struggled under pressure, taking a sack on 21.4% of pressured drop backs, 11^th worst in the NFL out of 38 eligible quarterbacks. He also completed just 43.2% of his passes while under pressure last season, 24^th out of 38 eligible, while throwing 8 interceptions to 4 touchdowns. In terms of under pressure efficiency (completions + drops + 1/2*scrambles – sacks – 3*interceptions/pressured drop backs – throw aways), he was 31^st out of 38 eligible. It’s an issue considering his offensive line won’t be much better this season.

In my opinion, he’s an average quarterback in a loaded quarterback league who is on the decline and definitely needs help, help he doesn’t have. Aside from the Jaguars, Raiders, and maybe the Jets, no team in the NFL has a worse supporting cast. The Chargers have a better quarterback than those 3 teams so they’ll win more games than those 3, but they’re highly unlikely to make the playoffs, even in the weak AFC.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

In order to help build the supporting cast around Rivers, the Chargers used the 11^th overall pick on DJ Fluker. However, I don’t know if that will work out. The book on Fluker is that he’s a great mauler as a run blocker, but struggles in pass protection and will only be a right tackle. If this were 5-10 years ago, a run blocker like Fluker could have gone 11^th overall and hidden on the right side in pass protection, but teams can attack the quarterback from both sides of the formation like never before so I don’t see how a below average pass protector could go 11^th overall like that.

The Chargers could be even worse on the offensive line this season because they lost talented right guard Louis Vasquez in free agency to the division rival Broncos. Vasquez was a diamond in the rough on San Diego’s otherwise horrible offensive line, grading out well above average in all 4 seasons since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2009 and he was a starter from the word go. He had his best season last year, when he graded out 13th at his position and he’s clearly an above average guard. He’ll definitely be missed.

In order to fill that hole at right guard, the Chargers will be moving Jeromey Clary from right tackle to right guard. He was abysmal in 2011, grading out 4^th worst among eligible offensive tackles on ProFootballFocus and he was below average in 2010 before that, but he did submit an above average season last year. He could be better at an easier position at right guard, but he’s also never played there in his career and it’s tough to count on him. At 6-6, he might have trouble getting leverage on the interior of the offensive line.

Opposite him, at left guard, the Chargers brought in Chad Rinehart from Buffalo. Rinehart is only a one year starter and he was limited by injuries last season, going on IR mid-season with an ankle injury, but he was excellent as a starter in 2011 with the Bills, grading out 9^th at his position. If he can stay healthy, he could be an above average starter for the Chargers and he was well worth a cheap 1-year deal for an offensive line needy team.

The Chargers will also have a new starter at left tackle, a welcome sight considering incumbent Michael Harris was the absolute worst tackle in the league last year on ProFootballFocus, as you could expect from an undrafted free agent rookie. Max Starks and King Dunlap will compete for that spot this season. Starks was ProFootballFocus’ 71^st ranked offensive tackle out of 80 eligible last season and is going into his age 31 season. He also has a history of weight and injury problems to caused him to play just 19 of 32 regular season games from 2010-2011. Dunlap, meanwhile, was a decent swing tackle in Philadelphia, but it’s unclear if he can be a consistent starter on the blindside. For what it’s worth, he graded out above average in 12 starts last season. He’s probably their best option, but Starks looks like the early favorite.

The only player who remains in his original spot from last season is center Nick Hardwick, who has manned that spot since being drafted in the 3^rd round in 2004. However, he appears to be on the decline, going into his age 32 season. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 31^st ranked center out of 36 eligible last season. He was 14^th in 2011, so he could bounce back, but his best days may be behind him. Overall, it’s an offensive line with a little talent, but a lot of uncertainty and it’s a unit very much in the flux. They should be among the worst offensive lines in the NFL again in 2013.

Grade: C-

Running Backs

As they did last season when they ranked 28^th in run blocking on ProFootballFocus, the Chargers’ offensive line should also once again struggle to open up holes on the ground. That’s not good news for a running back stable that already has issues to begin with. Ryan Mathews was the 12^th overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, but is starting to look like another Smith/Turner era bust. He looked on his way to a big time breakout year in 2012, with backup Mike Tolbert no longer stealing carries from him and coming off a season 2011 season in which he averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 222 carries, with 50 catches for 455 yards, and 6 total touchdowns.

However, injuries reared their head, as they always have for him, limiting him to just 184 carries, 3.8 yards per carry, 1 touchdown and 2 broken clavicles. He’s missed 10 games in his first 3 years in the league, never playing more than 14 games, and his injury problems date back to his collegiate days. The new regime does not seem nearly as bullish on his upside as the old one and he figures to work in a running back committee with Ronnie Brown and Danny Woodhead. He may be better, more efficient, and less likely to get hurt being used in this fashion, but it’s starting to look like he’ll never be the lead back and LaDainian Tomlinson replacement they were expecting. Besides, both Brown and Woodhead have their own issues.

Brown is going into his age 32 season and has averaged just 3.8 yards per carry on 288 carries over the past 3 seasons. He contributed big time last season as a pass catcher, with 49 catches for 371 yards last season for the Chargers, but he’s not the early down power back complement they need to keep Mathews fresh or a legitimate candidate to give them some carries if Mathews were to get hurt again. Woodhead, meanwhile, is the closest thing they’ve had to Darren Sproles since he left, but he’s had just 250 carries in the last 3 seasons and, at 5-8 190, isn’t capable of carrying much of a load. Like Brown, his biggest impact will come in the passing game.

Grade: B-

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Rivers could once again be reliant on check downs to the backs this season because things are questionable in the receiving corps. Danario Alexander has plenty of upside as the #1 receiver, but his history of injury problems is well noted. He had a very productive career at the University of Missouri, especially in his senior year, when he caught 113 passes for 1781 yards and 14 touchdowns. However, in spite of that, Alexander went undrafted in 2010 due to serious concerns about his left knee, which had been operated on 4 times. Alexander spent 2 years in St. Louis after making the practice squad as an undrafted free agent and he had some big games, including 5 games of 72 yards or more.

However, he struggled with injuries to his knee and hamstring and played just 18 games in those 2 seasons, catching a total of 46 passes for 737 yards and 3 touchdowns. After he had a 5th knee surgery before the 2012 season, Alexander was waived/injured by the Rams and became a free agent. Despite his natural ability at 6-5 217, his collegiate production, and the fact that he flashed on several occasions in St. Louis, he lasted as a free agent until October 18th, when he was signed by the receiver desperate Chargers.

With the Chargers, he began playing serious snaps by week 9 and became a starter by week 10. In 9 games with the team, he caught 37 passes for 658 yards and 7 touchdowns, which extrapolates to 66 catches for 1170 yards and 12 touchdowns over 16 games. Those 658 yards on 314 routes run equaled 2.10 yards per route run, 17th in the NFL among receivers who played as many snaps he did. He caught those 37 passes for 658 yards and 7 touchdowns on 54 targets and only 2 passes intended for him were intercepted, good for a QB rating when thrown to of 134.1, best in the NFL among receivers who played as many snaps as he did. For comparison, Philip Rivers’ overall QB rating was 88.6.

This off-season, he was slapped with an original round tender, which means anyone could have signed him to an offer sheet and not had to surrender draft pick compensation (the Chargers had right of to match any deal, however). Though several teams reportedly considered doing so, none did, likely scared off by his history of knee injuries and the commitment that comes with a multi-year deal. That’s also probably why San Diego didn’t slap a higher tender on him. His history of knee injuries still is the huge elephant in the room with him. They could creep up at any time.

Things do not get any clearer after that. Malcom Floyd should remain the other starter opposite Alexander, but he’s a marginal receiver who has never caught more than 56 passes in a season and who is heading into his age 32 season. He could be pushed by Vincent Brown or Keenan Allen for the starting job. Brown looked like a big-time sleeper going into the 2012 season, but the 2011 3^rd round pick didn’t play a snap after breaking his ankle. He’s caught just 19 passes for 329 yards and 2 touchdowns in his career so while there’s upside here, it’s hard to get too excited. Allen, meanwhile, is a mere 3^rd round rookie who probably won’t have much of an impact until 2014 and beyond. It’s just too hard to count on much from rookie receivers, especially those not drafted in the 1^st round.

Eddie Royal and Robert Meachem were the big-time free agent signings from the 2012 off-season, getting a 3 year, 13.5 million dollar contract and a 4 year, 25.9 million dollar contract respectively. However, they combined for just 37 catches last season. Royal could see snaps on the slot this season, but he also could be cut to save 1.5 million in cap space and 3 million in cash. Meachem, meanwhile, is currently listed as the team’s #6 receiver and played just 50 snaps from week 10 on last season. The only reason he’s still on the roster is because his 5 million dollar salary is fully guaranteed, but he’s highly unlikely to have any role this season. He couldn’t produce in New Orleans with Drew Brees, maxing out at 45 catches, and was a very ill-advised signing in the first place.

At tight end, Antonio Gates looks like he’s in the beginning of the end of his career. Despite plenty of opportunity, Gates managed just 49 catches for 538 yards and 7 touchdowns last season, despite actually playing in 15 games for the first time since 2009. He has a history of injury problems, missing 10 games in the last 3 seasons and being limited in countless others and, going into his age 33 season, it looks like it’s all caught up with him. He’s unlikely to improve much upon those numbers. His biggest impact will be around the goal line, as he’s still managed 24 touchdowns over 38 games over the last 3 seasons. He hasn’t had fewer than 7 touchdowns since his rookie year in 2003.

The Chargers used a 4^th round pick on Ladarius Green in 2012 to possibly be Gates’ eventual successor. The 6-6 240 pounder can’t block at all, but often looked like a big wide receiver on tape at the collegiate level with Louisiana-Lafayette, who he led in receiving in his final season with the team. He could see a bigger role than the 59 snaps he played as a rookie, but he may have to wait until Gates to be gone for a bigger role because of his inability to block. With Gates owed 5 million in an age 34 season in 2014, he might not have to wait much longer. Meanwhile, John Phillips was brought over from Dallas to handle more of the blocking duties. He was okay on 342 snaps in 2012 in the first real action of his career. Like the rest of the offense, the receiving corps overall lack talent.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

On defense, things are better than they are on offense. After all, their best player Eric Weddle is a defensive player. Plus, from 2010-2012, they used 8 of their 10 picks in the first 3 rounds on defensive players. Things are promising on their 3 man defensive line where they have a trio of young players in Corey Liuget, Kendall Reyes, and Cam Thomas. Liuget, a 2011 1^st round pick, is the best of the bunch. After a disappointing rookie season, Liuget was 8^th at his position on ProFootballFocus in 2012. He could be even better in 2013 and, if he plays his cards right, he could end the season as one of the top-10 interior defensive linemen in the NFL. The Chargers desperately need to develop more of those high level type players.

Opposite him, Kendall Reyes graded out above average on 547 snaps as a 2^nd round rookie last year and is headed for a bigger role in his 2^nd season in the league. He too could emerge as young above average starter. Between them, Cam Thomas will man the nose. The 2010 5^th round pick has graded out above average in each of the last 2 seasons, doing so on a career high 404 snaps in 2012. He’s not a great run stuffer, but he moves well enough and rushes the passer well enough to stay on the field in sub packages.

The only issue on the defensive line is a lack of depth. Vaughn Martin, Aubrayo Franklin, and Antonio Garay were nothing special, but with them all gone, their depth is very questionable. Damik Scafe has played just 14 snaps in his career. Kwame Geathers is an undrafted free agent rookie. Jarius Wynn is a veteran, but he’s been very mediocre through his career as primarily a backup. He’ll probably rotate with Liuget and Reyes.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Another one of those recent high picks on the defensive side of the ball is Melvin Ingram, a 2012 1^st round pick that they were counting on to have a bigger impact in 2013. However, he tore his ACL in the off-season and is expected to miss the entire season. The Chargers signed Dwight Freeney to replace him, but he’s a shell of what he used to be. Freeney graded out just about average last season, struggling against the run and grading out above average as a pass rusher. 3 things likely contributed to that: his unfamiliarity with the Colts’ 3-4 defense, his age, and injuries. However, San Diego also runs a 3-4 and he’s not getting any younger going into his age 33 season and, at his age, injuries remain a constant possibility. There’s a reason he was still available into June.

Opposite him, things are even worse. The Chargers didn’t just lose Ingram; they also lost opposite starter Shaun Phillips. He wasn’t very good last season, but they don’t really have a replacement. Jarret Johnson is a decent run stuffer, but he’s on the decline going into his age 32 season and he’s never generated any pass rush. He shouldn’t stay on the field in sub packages.

That probably means that Larry English will see a larger role this season, but the Smith/Turner era bust has never done anything of note. Since grading out as the absolute worst rush linebacker in the league as a rookie, he’s played just 408 snaps in the last 3 seasons combined, grading out below average each time. He should remain a very poor player in a bigger role this season. And after Freeney, Johnson, and English, they have very little depth. Thomas Keiser is a former undrafted free agent who has played 311 snaps in 2 seasons and Tourek Williams is a 6^th round rookie. They’ll struggle for pass rush, even with a solid defensive line.

Things are better inside at middle linebacker, but not great. Donald Butler is a 2010 3^rd round pick who has graded out above average in 2 seasons as a starter. He’ll play next to Manti Te’o, a 2^nd round rookie. Te’o was at one point seen by the media as a potential top-5 pick, but a poor showing in the National Championship game and the Catfish incident sent his stock falling in the media.

In actuality, he was probably seen as a late 1^st rounder/early 2^nd rounder all along by the NFL. I don’t think the Catfish incident hurt his stock too much, nor would a poor showing in one game, but at the same time, I don’t think a linebacker without elite sideline to sideline ability or pass rush ability would have ever been seen as a top-5 or even top-10 pick. He’ll probably play an every down role as a rookie, as the Chargers don’t really have another option. He should play well against the run, but I have concerns about his ability to cover. The early 2^nd round was the right range for him.

Grade: C+

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Secondary

I’ve mentioned Eric Weddle several times before. He really is a diamond in the rough on this team. He gets overlooked because of where he plays his football, but with Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu aging, he’s one of the top safeties in the NFL along with Jairus Byrd. He has been a top-8 safety on ProFootballFocus since 2009, top-3 since 2010, and graded out #1 in 2012. No one else even comes close to having that kind of recent track record.

The rest of the secondary is a mess though. Marcus Gilchrist and Brandon Taylor will compete for the other safety job. Gilchrist is a 2011 2^nd round pick who struggled mightily as a part time player at cornerback in his first two years in the league. He’s being moved to safety, but, at 5-10 193, he’s very small for the position so I doubt he’d be much better there. Taylor, meanwhile, was a 3^rd round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft and probably is the best man for the job, but he played just 40 snaps as a rookie and is coming off a torn ACL suffered in December. He’s practicing, but that injury will really hurt his chances of winning the job. He’d be a real question mark even if he did.

At cornerback, the Chargers essentially lost their top-3 guys from last season, with Quentin Jammer and Antoine Cason leaving as free agents and Gilchrist kicking from the slot to safety. They brought in Derek Cox from Jacksonville, but he’s a very injury prone player who has missed 17 games in the last 3 seasons. He’s also only graded out above average once in 4 seasons and that was during a 2011 season in which he played just 6 games. In 2009 and 2010, he was 3^rd worst at his position both times, and last season, he was only slightly below average, grading out 71^st out of 113 eligible. As the de factor #1 cornerback in San Diego, he should be overmatched, at least when he’s on the field. He’s unlikely to ever live up to his 4 year, 20 million dollar contract.

Opposite him, the Chargers will promote 2011 3^rd round pick Shareece Wright from the #4 cornerback to the #2 cornerback. He impressed on 120 snaps last season, but he’s played just 124 snaps in his 2 year career thus far, so he can’t really be counted on. Johnny Patrick who was torched last season in New Orleans, will line up as the #3 cornerback on the slot. If he had been eligible, he would have been ProFootballFocus’ 11^th worst rated cornerback, despite only playing 218 snaps. No one played fewer snaps than him last season and graded out worse. There’s a reason why he barely got playing time on a New Orleans defense that allowed the most yardage in NFL history. He allowed 24 catches on 35 attempts for 339 yards and 5 touchdowns in his limited action. After him, they have a 5^th round rookie on the depth chart. It’s a serious problem.

Grade: C+

Head Coach

It’s hard to grade 1^st year Head Coaches and important to temper expectations, but I definitely understand why McCoy was hired. He had success in Denver running three completely different types of offenses in his 4 years as offensive coordinator from 2009-2012. He worked with Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow, and Peyton Manning and played to all 3 of their respective strengths. However, plenty of good offensive coordinators have washed out as Head Coaches.

Grade: B-

Overall

I just don’t see the talent here. It’s going to take a long time to clean up AJ Smith’s mess. As I said, aside from the Jaguars, Raiders, and maybe the Jets, no team in the NFL has a worse supporting cast. The Chargers have a better quarterback than those 3 teams so they’ll win more games than those 3, but they’re highly unlikely to make the playoffs, even in the weak AFC. I think they’re the 3^rd best team in the AFC West and will probably only win 2 divisional games, either sweeping Oakland and getting swept by Kansas City or splitting with both.

Outside of the division, they host Houston, Dallas, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and the Giants, a very tough batch of teams. They’ll be lucky to win 2 of those games. They also go to Philadelphia, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Washington, and Miami. They probably won’t win in Washington and they’d be lucky to win 2 of those other 4. I have them at 5-11. There’s some upside if Rivers can turn it around, but I think he’s more on the decline than anything else and his supporting cast won’t help at all.

Projection: 5-11 3^rd in AFC West

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Kansas City Chiefs 2013 NFL Season Preview

August 3, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Introduction

The Chiefs were no ordinary 2-14 team. They had 5 Pro-Bowlers last year. That might sound baffling, but it’s not. Only Eric Berry and maybe Tamba Hali (who had a down year) didn’t deserve it, but they could have easily been replaced by Brandon Flowers and Justin Houston. Unfortunately for them, football is a team game, not a contest of who has the highest amount of good players. This team was the perfect example of the sum of the parts being greater than the whole. If you’re as poorly coached and poorly quarterbacked as the Chiefs and lose the turnover battle at a near record rate, you’re not going to win a lot of games. I don’t care how many talented players you have.

Because they were no ordinary 2-14 team, the Chiefs took a different approach to the off-season than most teams coming off of seasons with similar records do. Instead of rebuilding, the Chiefs acted as contenders, bringing back their top two free agents Dwayne Bowe and Branden Albert on a lucrative multi-year deal and the franchise tag respectively.

They also signed four players to multi-year deals, adding Dunta Robinson and Sean Smith to shore up holes in the secondary, Mike DeVito to shore up a hole on the defensive line, and Anthony Fasano to likely be their starting tight end. They brought in a veteran Head Coach in Andy Reid and, rather than using an early draft pick on a quarterback for the future, they sent a 2^nd round pick to San Francisco for veteran Alex Smith and used the #1 overall pick on a more NFL ready player in Eric Fisher, who will plug in at right tackle immediately.

I think, overall, their moves made a lot of sense this off-season. They might have overpaid a few players, but I like the strategy and I think they’ll be a much improved team this season. Not only are they more talented, but the additions of Alex Smith and Andy Reid will fix the three things that were holding them back last season, quarterback play, turnovers, and coaching and let the rest of their talent shine.

Reid wore out his welcome in Philadelphia, but he also managed to keep his job there for 14 seasons, which is saying something. Over his time there, he made basically every quarterback he had look better than they were, allowing the Eagles to ship off Kevin Kolb, AJ Feeley, and, eventually, a washed up Donovan McNabb for 2^nd round picks, even though none of the three ever did anything of note for their new team. He also revitalized the careers of Jeff Garcia and Michael Vick, who both came to Philadelphia as backups on cheap one year deals.

Reid should continue his fine work with new quarterback Alex Smith, a great fit for Reid’s West Coast offense. Smith was not as good as he looked in San Francisco with Jim Harbaugh. Their supporting cast made life very easy for him, especially their defense, as Smith had an excellent win-loss record despite only leading a talented offensive bunch to 23 points per game in 1 ½ years under Harbaugh.

However, I don’t think you can say he’ll immediately regress to the borderline starter he was before Harbaugh. I believe he’s legitimately an improved quarterback over the one he was 2 seasons ago. Plus, with Reid and Kansas City’s supporting cast, he’s not going into such a bad situation in Kansas City. He’ll also see a much easier schedule than he did in San Francisco. He’s physically limited and can only lead teams deep into the playoffs in absolutely perfect situations, but at the very least he’ll stabilize the turnover margin.

Speaking of that turnover margin, it was a league worst -24 last season, which was actually one of the worst in NFL history (-30 by the 1965 Steelers is the worst in NFL history). It made it very tough for them to win games and affected both sides of the ball, especially defensively, where they were not nearly as bad as the 26.6 points per game they allowed would have suggested.

Turnover margin tends to be inconsistent on a year-to-year basis. For example, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers on average turn the ball over 25.5 times the following season, while teams that turn the ball over 35 or more times turn the ball over 28.1 times the following season. Teams with 20 or fewer takeaways take the ball away an average of 25.3 times the following season, while teams with 35 or more takeaways take the ball away an average of 27.3 times the following season. Teams with a turnover differential of +15 or higher have a turnover differential of +3.6 the following season, while teams with a turnover differential of -15 have a turnover differential of +1.5 the following season.

Turnovers and takeaways are incredibly hard to predict on year-to-year and even a game-to-game basis (teams with a turnover differential of +4 or higher and teams with a turnover differential of -4 or lower both average a turnover differential of +0.0 in the following game). Alex Smith should cut down on their interceptions. They should recover more than the 33.3% of fumbles that hit the ground that they did last season, 3^rd worst in the NFL. And their talented defense should get their hands on a few more interceptions as well. With almost the same defensive unit in 2011, they had 19 interceptions. Last year, they had 7. That’s how inconsistent this stuff can be.

That will go a long ways towards letting their talent show through and improving their record. Every year, one team goes from 5 wins or fewer to into the playoffs and I think the Chiefs have the best shot of any of last year’s 7 such teams to do so (Kansas City, Jacksonville, Oakland, Philadelphia, Detroit, Cleveland, Arizona). Detroit might be more talented, but they have a much tougher conference to deal with.

Quarterback

I already went into Alex Smith in the intro. He’s not in the top half of starting quarterbacks in the NFL, but he’s miles ahead of anything the Chiefs had at quarterback last season and might be their best quarterback since Trent Green was healthy in 2005. He’ll stabilize the turnover problem and at the very least be a 2-year stopgap. I don’t see why he couldn’t do his best Matt Cassel 2010 impression and take this team to the post-season against a very weak schedule. They have the supporting cast.

Grade: B-

Running Back

Jamaal Charles is a big part of that supporting cast. If it weren’t for Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson (and the fact that the Chiefs were abysmal), more people would have paid attention to Charles’ amazing return from an ACL tear. Charles rushed for 1509 yards and 5 touchdowns on 285 carries and was a deserving one of Kansas City’s 5 Pro-Bowlers. In terms of pure talent, I think Jamaal Charles is one of the top running backs in the NFL and that we haven’t seen his best season yet.

Yes, he’s had injury issues and has never been trusted by a Head Coach to carry the load, but remember who he’s had as Head Coaches: Herm Edwards, Todd Haley, and Romeo Crennel. Haley gave him fewer carries in 2010 than Thomas Jones even though Charles almost set the single season record for yards per carry. He was averaging a good 2.7 yards per carry more than Jones. Last year, Charles got 5 carries in a loss to the Raiders and when asked why after the game, Romeo Crennel’s answer was “I don’t know.”

Sure, he’s had just 784 carries in 5 seasons, but his career 5.8 YPC is MOST ALL-TIME of backs with more than 500 career carries. After him, it’s Marion Motley, a fullback, linebacker, and kick returner who I think wore a leather helmet (1946-1955), Bo Jackson, one of the greatest athletes the world has ever seen, and some dude named Spec Sanders who also served as his team’s punter (1946-1950). Why do his coaches never give him the ball?!

You might not think things will get better with Andy Reid coming in, but while Andy Reid hates to run the football, when he does, he’s faithful to one back and his playbook has enough passes to backs that Charles should be able to surpass his career high of 320 touches in a season. He’ll catch plenty of Alex Smith check downs and is a solid bet to catch 55-60 passes, which would surpass his career high of 45.

He’ll also see more goal line touches, more consistent work, and more room to run on a team that can actually move the football through the air this season. He’s another year removed from that ACL tear and he’s the clear lead back with 3^rd round rookie Knile Davis and backup caliber talent Shaun Draughn battling for carries behind him. He was 5^th in the NFL in yards from scrimmage last season and he’s my pick to lead the NFL in that category this season, as Brian Westbrook did under Reid in 2007.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

Charles will be helped by a great offensive line, as will Alex Smith. Branden Albert was franchised this off-season and while he wasn’t re-signed to a multi-year contract because of concerns about the long-term health of his back, the Chiefs felt confident enough in his back to give him 9.5 million guaranteed for this season and refused to trade him for anything less than a 2^nd round pick (talks with Miami eventually broke down over Miami’s unwillingness to give Albert the long-term deal he wanted).

Despite missing 4 games and being limited in others with those back problems, Albert was ProFootballFocus’ 24^th ranked offensive tackle last season. The 2008 1^st round pick was better in 2011, when he ranked 18^th at his position. He may not be around with the Chiefs in 2014 and beyond, as he’ll turn 30 during the 2014 season, but he should be able to once again serve as an above average blindside protector this season.

One of the other reasons why Albert could be gone in 2014 is that the Chiefs used the #1 overall pick on Eric Fisher, an offensive tackle from Central Michigan. Fisher will play right tackle this season, but if they don’t feel confident giving a long-term deal to a going-on-30 left tackle with a history of back problems next off-season, he also gives them an insurance option on the blindside. Ordinarily, it’s hard to trust a rookie, especially one coming from a small school background like Fisher, but he was the #1 overall pick and he should find life easier on the right side than the left side, so I don’t have any issue projecting him as an above average starter this season.

Things are strong on the inside of the line as well. 2010 3rd round pick Jon Asamoah improved on a strong 2011 with an even stronger 2012, grading out 10th at his position, after grading out 18th in 2011. He could be even better this season and he’s one of the best guards in the NFL. He’ll play next to Rodney Hudson, a 2011 2nd round pick. Hudson was as accomplished as a collegiate offensive lineman could be, starting all 4 years, making the All-ACC team in his final 3 years, and the All-American team in his final 2 years, doing so unanimously in his senior year.

However, the NFL doesn’t have a lot of sub-300 pound offensive lineman and Hudson weighed in at 299 at The Combine, while not posting a particularly fast 40 time at 5.31. In spite of 27 reps of 225, there were still major questions about his ability to anchor. Hudson barely played as a rookie, serving as a reserve guard. However, with long-time NFL veteran Casey Wiegmann retiring, a hole opened up at center for the Chiefs and Hudson was moved there for the 2012 season. The move made sense. Hudson’s lack of strength and athleticism wouldn’t be as big of an issue at center and his intelligence and technique would be big time assets.

Hudson started out very well in his first season at center, only allowing 1 pressure in his first 2 and ½ games, but he went down with a broken leg during the middle of that 3rd game, costing him his season. In spite of the limited playing time, he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 23rd ranked center (he wasn’t eligible, but I included ineligible players), grading out above average as a run and pass blocker. Only Dallas’ Phil Costa played fewer snaps than him and graded out better than him. Provided he can stay healthy (injuries have never been an issue for him before last year), Hudson could certainly pick up where he left off and emerge as an above average center.

Left guard is the weak point of the line. There is currently a three-way battle for that job between Donald Stephenson, Jeff Allen, and Geoff Schwartz. Stephenson and Allen are both 2^nd year players, going in the 3^rd and 2^nd round respectively in 2012, but both struggled mightily as rookies. Allen started 13 games at left guard last season, but graded out 79^th out of 81 eligible guards. Stephenson, meanwhile, started 7 games as the swing tackle, but was not impressive at all, grading out 58^th out of 80 eligible despite the limited playing time. He’ll probably serve in the swing tackle role again if he can’t win the left guard job. Both players could be better in their 2^nd year in the league, but there are no guarantees.

Both 2^nd year players are dealing with injuries in Training Camp, which puts them at a disadvantage in the battle for the starting job. However, that might work out for the best for the Chiefs because Schwartz is probably the best man for the job. Schwartz was excellent in his only year as a starter in 2010, starting 5 games at right tackle and 11 games at right guard. If you take his composite grade (at guard and tackle), he would have been ProFootballFocus’ 5^th ranked guard and 13^th ranked tackle. He missed the entirety of the 2011 season with a hip injury, but he was very good as a reserve with the Vikings last season on 160 snaps. It’s possible the 2008 7^th round pick is just a one year wonder, but he was more than worth it for the Chiefs on a cheap one year deal and he deserves to be the starting left guard.

If Schwartz is the weak point on your offensive line, you’re in good shape. They don’t have any elite players on the line, but it’s still a well above average unit. They should be improved over a 2012 offensive line that ranked 21^st in pass block efficiency and 7^th in run block grade, with Fisher coming in, Hudson coming back, Asamoah further maturing, and Allen and Stephenson likely moving to reserve roles.

Grade: A-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Along with Branden Albert returning at left tackle, the Chiefs also brought back Dwayne Bowe this off-season. A season after being franchise tagged, the Chiefs gave Bowe a 5-year, 56 million dollar contract. Bowe has caught 415 passes for 5728 yards and 39 touchdowns in 88 games in his career, which compares favorably to Vincent Jackson, who got 5 years, 55.5 million last off-season, despite just 272 catches for 4754 yards and 37 touchdowns in 92 games at a similar age. Bowe has produced those improved numbers without the luxury of strong quarterback play, which Jackson had in San Diego with Philip Rivers.

Bowe caught just 59 passes for 801 yards and 3 touchdowns in 13 games in 2012, the 2^nd worst season of his career, but that’s actually pretty impressive considering his quarterback play. Now he gets to play in a pass heavy offense under Andy Reid with arguably the best quarterback he’s ever played with (compared to Brodie Croyle, Damon Huard, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko, Kyle Orton, and Brady Quinn) and he’s a great fit for a West Coast offense. He’s quietly one of the better receivers in the NFL in Kansas City and the arrow is definitely pointing up for him. He could surpass his career highs of 86 catches (2008) and 1162 yards (2010), though the 15 touchdowns he caught in 2010 remain largely a fluke.

Unfortunately, the rest of the Chiefs’ receiving corps is not nearly as impressive. They’ll probably give Jonathan Baldwin another shot to win the starting job opposite Bowe and the 2011 1^st round pick is still a talented receiver going in his 3^rd year, frequently a breakout year for receivers. However, he’s shown absolutely nothing in 2 years in the league to show he’s anything other than a big stiff at 6-4 225 who can’t grasp the mental part of the game, catching just 41 passes for 579 yards and 2 touchdowns on 587 pass snaps in his first 2 years of the league. You never want to write a receiver with Baldwin’s natural ability off, but I don’t expect big things from him.

Baldwin might not even make it to week 1 as the starter if he can’t beat out veteran Donnie Avery in the pre-season, a real possibility. Avery wouldn’t be much of an upgrade though. The once snake-bitten receiver appeared to have revitalized his career last season in Indianapolis, where he caught a career high 60 passes for a career high 781 yards to go with 3 touchdowns, but he was actually one of the most inefficient receivers in the NFL.

He graded 100^th out of 105 eligible at his position on ProFootballFocus, had his position’s 3^rd highest drop rate among eligible receivers (12 drops to 60 catches) and ranked 70^th out of 82 eligible in QB rating when thrown to, catching those 60 passes on 112 targets with 3 interceptions to those 3 touchdowns. He was a fine young receiver in his first 2 years in the league in 2008-2009 before injuries, but it appears those days are gone, after an injury plagued 2010-2011 stretch that saw him play just 8 games and catch just 3 passes. He’s best suited to being a depth receiver and remains an obvious injury risk.

Whoever wins the 2^nd outside job opposite Dwayne Bowe, Dexter McCluster will remain as the slot specialist. He’s alright in that role, catching 52 passes for 452 yards and a touchdown on 70 targets and 389 pass snaps, despite awful quarterback play, last season, his first in the role full time after being experimented as a running back. The slot receiver has a pretty big role in Andy Reid’s offense as Reid likes to pass a lot and use a lot of 3-wide receiver sets.

Reid’s Eagles used the 3-wide formation on 49% of their snaps last season and slot specialist Jason Avant an average of 52 passes in that role over the last 3 seasons. The diminutive 5-8 170 pound McCluster is a noticeably different type of slot receiver from Avant, but he could see similar production. He won’t be a huge factor in the off-season or anything though and he’s unlikely to be fantasy relevant, for those of you who are interested in that type of thing.

With weakness at receiver after Dwayne Bowe, the Chiefs will need to get some production from the tight end position. Unfortunately, things aren’t much better there. Anthony Fasano comes over from Miami. He’s a good all-around tight end and inline blocker, who contributes a little bit in the passing game, but he wasn’t worth the 16 million they paid him over 4 years. They shouldn’t expect much more than any of his career highs, 41 catches (2012), 528 yards (2010), and 7 touchdowns (2008). He’ll likely start.

Meanwhile, 3^rd round rookie Travis Kelce and veteran incumbent Tony Moeaki will compete for the move tight end role. Moeaki is a marginal tight end, who has caught 80 passes for 1009 yards and 4 touchdowns over 2010 and 2012 (with a torn ACL in 2011 in between) since being drafted in the 3^rd round in 2010. Kelce has more upside, but he’s just a 3^rd round rookie, so it’s tough to count on him much. Moeaki’s 1.323 million dollar base salary is about 3 times more than Kelce’s so that could work against him, especially if the Chiefs could find a trade partner for him before the season starts. He’s already been rumored as an option for the Patriots to replace Aaron Hernandez, with former Chiefs offensive coordinator Brian Daboll serving as the receivers coach there.

Whoever wins the job, they’ll unlikely to give Alex Smith the consistent #2 receiver after Dwayne Bowe he would like. Jamaal Charles could be 2^nd on the team in receptions. It’s the weakness of the Chiefs’ offense, but they should be alright. They won’t turn the ball over as much. Jamaal Charles will be a yards from scrimmage monster. They have a strong offensive line. Andy Reid is an underappreciated offensive mind. And they should approach the 23 points per game Smith led the 49ers to over the past 2 seasons.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

The Chiefs largely did a good job of filling their holes this off-season, but one thing they did not obtain was someone to pressure the quarterback from the defensive line and a tertiary pass rush option after Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. Hali and Houston, their starting rush linebackers in their 3-4 defense and primary edge rushers, did a great job last season, combining for 20 sacks, but they can’t do it alone, as the Chiefs had just 27 sacks on the season and were ProFootballFocus’ 28^th ranked pass rush team.

Their 3-man defensive line got absolutely no pass rush last season. Chief defensive linemen combined for 5 sacks, 7 hits, and 18 hurries on 1225 combined pass rush snaps last year, a pathetic 2.7% rate. For comparison, JJ Watt had 21 sacks, 24 hits, and 31 hurries by himself. I know rushing the quarterback isn’t their primary job, but that’s pathetic. They have to get some sort of pass rush, especially in sub packages on obvious passing downs. Hali and Houston can’t do it by themselves. No two pass rushers can.

Tyson Jackson returns on the defensive line after restructuring his massive salary and will once again start in one spot. The surprise 3^rd overall pick of the 2009 NFL Draft has largely been a bust. He’s a better run stopper than pass rusher, but last season he didn’t even grade out above average as a run stopper and he managed just 3 sacks, 1 hits, and 3 hurries on 285 pass rush snaps, a 2.5% pass rush rate. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 5^th worst ranked 3-4 defensive end overall and 2^nd worst ranked pass rushing 3-4 defensive end. He’s been a better run stopper in the past and graded out above average in 2011, but at best he could be described as a solid base 3-4 end and nothing else.

Free agent acquisition Mike DeVito is pretty much a rich man’s Tyson Jackson. Few players are better pure base 3-4 ends, as he graded out 9^th among 3-4 defensive ends last season, but he didn’t get any pass rush with 1 sack and 10 hurries on 248 pass rush snaps, a 4.4% pass rush rate. He was only a part-time player for that reason and should be used in that role this season with the Chiefs. He was essentially the same player in 2011, when he graded out 9^th overall at his position and 5^th as a run stopper at his position.

The player who has the best chance to give them any sort of pass rush from the defensive line is Dontari Poe. He’s a massive 346 pound nose tackle, but the Chiefs didn’t draft him 11^th overall just for him to be a true two-down run stuffing nose tackle and he has rare movement ability for someone of his size. He has the upside to be a good every down player and get this team some much needed pass rush from the interior. However, I didn’t like the pick when they made it and he certainly didn’t do much to change my mind as a rookie, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 74^th ranked defensive tackle out of 85 eligible and producing 3 hits and 9 hurries on 403 pass rush snaps, a 3.0% pass rush rate. He could be better in his 2^nd season, but I think he’s too much of a straight athlete with subpar lateral ability to reach his upside.

Marcus Dixon, Anthony Toribio, and Allen Bailey are their reserve defensive linemen, but none of them appear to have the ability to give them the interior pass rusher they need. Bailey will probably play in sub packages and obvious passing downs with Poe and he has the most pass rush upside of the bunch, being drafted in the 3^rd round in 2011 after running a 4.77 40 at 6-3 285 at The Combine. However, he’s played just 461 snaps in his first two seasons in the league and managed just 2 total hurries on 105 pass rush snaps last season. It figures to once again be a defensive line that stops the run well, but doesn’t generate any pass rush.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

As I mentioned, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are an excellent pass rush tandem, possibly one of the best in the NFL. Houston, a talented player who only fell to the 3^rd round in 2011 because of a failed drug test at The Combine, carried over strong play from the final 6 games of the 2011 season into 2012, as he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 4th ranked rush linebacker.

Houston and Hali had very similar raw pass rush numbers (10 sacks, 7 hits, and 27 hurries for Houston, 10, 8, and 28 for Hali), but Houston graded significantly out better in coverage and against the run. Houston dropped into coverage 173 times this year to Hali’s 81 and did a very good job of it and, as a result, he saw fewer pass rush snaps and still produced similar raw numbers. While Houston had a 12.5% pass rush rate on 352 pass rush snaps, Hali had an 11.4% pass rush rate on 405 pass rush snaps.

Though Hali graded out middle of the pack, 18^th out of 34 eligible, at his position, he’s been much better in the past, grading out 4^th in 2011 and 1^st in 2010. Only going into his age 30 season, he’s a strong candidate for a bounce back year, while Houston could continue improving, which would give them an even stronger rush linebacker duo, but again, they can’t do it alone. They also lack serious depth at the position. Andy Studebaker played 59 snaps and represented the top reserve at the position last season, with 26 of those coming in a week 1 start in place of a suspended Hali. Things figure to be very much the same this season with career backup Frank Zombo as the top reserve.

Derrick Johnson is the 3^rd strong member of their linebacking corps. He’s been a top-5 middle linebacker on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 3 seasons since he regained his starting job after being benched in 2009 by Todd Haley. Only Patrick Willis can say the same thing and while no middle linebacker is on Willis’ level, Johnson is the only other player who even comes close. He’s incredibly durable as well and rarely misses a snap.

The weakness in the linebacking corps is the other middle linebacker spot, which, along with the need for a pass rushing defensive lineman, is the biggest hole they left unaddressed this off-season. They did use a 4^th round pick on Nico Johnson, but if he has to start as a rookie, it’ll be a problem. He could very well have to because the only other option is Akeem Jordan, who will compete with Johnson in Training Camp and the pre-season. Jordan follows Reid from Philadelphia, where the 2007 undrafted free agent was a solid career backup. Otherwise, it’s a loaded linebacking corps with 3 Pro-Bowl caliber players.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The secondary is where the Chiefs spent the most of their off-season efforts, adding Dunta Robinson and Sean Smith on multi-year deals. Both of those players will complement #1 cornerback Brandon Flowers, who remains one of the best in the NFL. He’s the only player who has graded out among the top-7 cornerbacks on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 4 seasons and it isn’t even really close, though if it weren’t for Revis’ torn ACL, he’d probably have joined him. He topped out at #2 overall in 2010 and last season was 7^th. He allowed 40 catches on 80 attempts for 479 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 7 passes and committing 2 penalties.

Sean Smith will start opposite him. The 6-3 215 pound corner has plenty of talent, but is really inconsistent. He was ProFootballFocus’ 9^th ranked cornerback in 2010, but ranked 5^th worst in 2011, before a slightly below average season in 2012, though he graded out slightly above average in coverage, allowing 62 catches on 113 attempts for 732 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 8 passes and committing 7 penalties. He’s inconsistent and has a history of being out of shape, but the 2009 2^nd round pick probably averages out as an average starter.

Dunta Robinson, meanwhile, will play the slot, after being cut by the Falcons midway into an undeserved massive contract. He once again struggled in coverage last season, allowing 64 catches on 97 attempts for 834 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 7 passes and committing 3 penalties. However, a strong run grade actually lifted his overall grade above average, as he ranked 4^th at his position in that aspect. He’ll be a better fit on the slot in Kansas City, going into his age 31 season, but I wouldn’t expect big things from him.

Still, Smith and Robinson will be better as the #2 and #3 cornerback than what they got last season. Javier Arenas was decent, but Stanford Routt, signed as a cheaper alternative to departed free agent Brandon Carr (before Carr even signed), didn’t even make it through his first season with a team, getting cut mid-season. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 87^th ranked cornerback out of 113 eligible on just 409 snaps. Jalil Brown, his replacement, was even worse, grading out 103^rd on 371 snaps.

The Chiefs should also get better play from Eric Berry. To this point in his career, Berry is overrated. The 5^th overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, Berry made the Pro-Bowl on name value as rookie, but, while he wasn’t bad, grading out 17^th at his position, he didn’t deserve that honor yet. His development was stunted by a torn ACL in 2011 and even though he made the Pro-Bowl again upon his return in 2012, he didn’t look quite himself, grading out as just an average starter. I have big hopes for him going into his 4^th year another year removed from that injury, but he’s not that player yet.

Opposite him, Kendrick Lewis is coming off a down year, being limited to 565 snaps by injury and grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 81^st ranked safety out of 88 eligible, but he was an average starter in both 2010 and 2011 so he could bounce back. If he doesn’t, the Chiefs have Husian Abdullah behind him. He was an above average starter in 2010 (18^th at his position) and on his way to a similar season in 2011 before concussion problems ended his 2011 season in the middle. He took 2012 off to recover and pursue religious obligations, taking a pilgrimage to Mecca, but now he’s back and healthy and could be an underrated pickup for the Chiefs. It’s a solid and improved secondary for the Chiefs, part of an overall solid defensive unit.

Grade: B+

Head Coach

Andy Reid gets a bad rep because he’s fat and sometimes misuses his timeouts and lost the locker room last season in Philadelphia, but for all of his weaknesses, his ability to get the most out of quarterbacks is so valuable and makes him a good Head Coach. He made Donovan McNabb, AJ Feeley, Kevin Kolb, Michael Vick, and Jeff Garcia all look better than they were and he should do the same with Alex Smith this season. There’s a reason he was the Head Coach in Philadelphia for 14 years and why he got snatched up so quickly once let go. He and the Eagles needed to part ways for both of their sakes and he should benefit from a fresh start and a fresh team in Kansas City.

Grade: B+

Overall

Every year, at least one team makes the playoffs on the good defense, strong running game, decent quarterback, easy schedule model and I think the Chiefs will do so this year, much like they did in 2010. This was not your typical 2-14 team last year and they made the necessary adjustments this off-season to allow their talent to shine. I think they’ll be the NFL’s most improved team in terms of win total and be this year’s team to go from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs.

They probably won’t beat Denver, but they’ll a better team than both San Diego and Oakland so 4 divisional wins is not out of the question. Outside of the division, they host the Giants, Dallas, Houston, Cleveland, and Indianapolis. They should beat Cleveland and at least split the other 4 games, which puts them at 7-4 in the aforementioned 11 games. They also go to Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Tennessee, Buffalo, and Washington, which outside of Washington is not a tough schedule. They could win 3 of those games. I have them at 10-6.

Projection: 10-6 2^nd in AFC West

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Kansas City Chiefs 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

August 3, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Chiefs, Uncategorized

QB Alex Smith (Kansas City)

Over his time in Philadelphia, Andy Reid made basically every quarterback he had look better than they were, allowing the Eagles to ship off Kevin Kolb, AJ Feeley, and, eventually, Donovan McNabb for 2^nd round picks, even though none of the three ever did anything of note for their new team. He also revitalized the careers and Jeff Garcia and Michael Vick, who both came to Philadelphia as backups on cheap one year deals. Reid should continue his fine work with Alex Smith, a great fit for Reid’s West Coast offense. Smith was not as good as he looked in San Francisco with Jim Harbaugh, but I don’t think you can say he’ll immediately regress to the borderline starter he was before Harbaugh. The Chiefs figure to pass the ball a lot under Andy Reid so Smith is an underrated QB2.

Projection: 3850 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 1 touchdown (226 pts standard, 268 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Jamaal Charles (Kansas City)

Jamaal Charles’ career 5.8 YPC is most all-time of backs with more than 500 career carries. Sure, he’s had just 784 carries in 5 seasons: but remember who he’s had as Head Coaches, Herm Edwards, Todd Haley, and Romeo Crennel. While Andy Reid hates to run the football, when he does, he’s faithful to one back and his playbook has enough passes to backs that Charles should be able to surpass his career high of 320 touches in a season. He’ll catch plenty of Alex Smith check downs and is a solid bet to catch 55-60 passes. He’ll also see more goal line touches, more consistent work, and more room to run on a team that can actually move the football through the air this season. He’s another year removed from that ACL tear and he’s the clear lead back. He was 5^th in the NFL in yards from scrimmage last season and he’s my pick to lead the NFL in that category this season, as Brian Westbrook did under Reid in 2007.

Projection: 280 carries for 1540 rushing yards, 10 total touchdowns, 58 catches for 470 yards (261 pts standard, 319 pts PPR)

WR Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City)

Projection: 88 catches for 1220 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns (170 pts standard, 258 pts PPR)

TE Travis Kelce (Kansas City)

8/28/13: Tony Moeaki is expected to be done for the season with a fractured shoulder, but Travis Kelce might have beaten him out for the pass catching job either way. Still, with Moeaki gone, there will be plenty of playing time for the talented rookie and Alex Smith loves throwing to underneath targets so he’s worth a late round flier. Few TE2s have more upside.

Projection: 50 catches for 600 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns (84 pts standard, 134 pts PPR)

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2013 Denver Broncos Fantasy Football Projections

August 2, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Broncos, Uncategorized

QB Peyton Manning (Denver)

It’s possible that the addition of Welker can lead to be even further improved Manning, but I don’t find it that likely that Manning will surpass the arguably 2^nd best season of his career (at least in terms of QB rating) in what is his age 37 season. It’s more likely that regression to the mean and normal diminishing physical skills for a 37-year-old who has recently had a serious injury lead to an inferior 2013 as compared to 2012 for Manning. Sure, Manning’s mean is still one of the best in the game, but I don’t buy that he’ll be improved over last season just because of Wes Welker’s presence on the slot. Don’t buy too high, especially in a deep year for quarterbacks.

Projection: 4500 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 20 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (292 pts standard, 362 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Montee Ball (Denver)

8/27/13: A day after being benched, Ronnie Hillman was back working with the first team offense again today. John Fox said that the Broncos will be using a running back committee, as he usually does. John Fox hates rookies, so while Ball should lead the team in touches, I think it’s generally a situation to avoid in fantasy this season, at least for drafting purposes.

Ball is the most talented of the Broncos’ running back trio, but John Fox notoriously hates playing rookies, especially at the running back position. Peyton Manning also requires his backs to pass protect and he could very well have a say in who plays running back this season. Ball played his college ball at Wisconsin, which was not a pass heavy team, even when they had Russell Wilson in 2011, so he’s understandably raw in pass protection. Ball will probably still lead the team in carries, but he’s being overvalued at this point. There are much better RB options at his current ADP so let him be someone else’s problem.

Projection: 150 carries for 660 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 17 catches for 130 receiving yards (115 pts standard, 132 pts PPR)

RB Ronnie Hillman (Denver)

8/27/13: A day after being benched, Ronnie Hillman was back working with the first team offense again today. I still think he’s the 3^rd most valuable fantasy back on this team, but it’s a situation to avoid entirely. Let someone else sort out this mess.

8/25/13: Ronnie Hilman has been a mess in the pre-season. I’d take Ball and Moreno over him. He’s barely worth a late round flier at this point.

Ronnie Hillman isn’t a rookie anymore, but the 2012 3^rd round pick still is a young back and at sub-200 pounds, he doesn’t have the frame to carry the load or to hold up in pass protection. He was down as low as 175 pounds as a rookie. He’s best suited as a change of pace back, though he was working as the starter in Training Camp because, again, John Fox hates rookies. I’d rather have him at his current ADP in the 9^th or 10^th round than Ball at his current ADP in the 4^th.

Projection: 100 carries for 450 rushing yards 3 total touchdowns 23 catches for 200 receiving yards (83 pts standard, 106 pts PPR)

RB Knowshon Moreno (Denver)

8/25/13: Originally, I thought it would be Ronnie Hillman to start the season for the Broncos, but he’s been a mess in the pre-season so it’s beginning to look like Moreno is going to be the early season back and passing down complement. Montee Ball will eventually take over the starting job, like he would have if Hillman were the guy and I do expect him to lead the team in carries, but John Fox hates playing rookies.

Projection: 120 carries for 500 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 23 catches for 190 receiving yards (93 pts standard, 116 pts PPR)

WR Demaryius Thomas (Denver)

Thomas also broke out in 2012, catching 94 passes for 1430 yards and 10 touchdowns. He might not reach those numbers again, but Welker’s presence won’t eat too much into his targets as he operates in a completely different part of the field, serving as the primary deep threat. Decline by Peyton Manning as he ages is more of a threat to Thomas than anything, but he remains a WR1.

Projection: 85 catches for 1300 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns (196 pts standard, 281 pts PPR)

WR Eric Decker (Denver)

After largely being a non-factor in his first 2 years in the league, the 2010 3^rd round pick Decker caught 85 passes for 1064 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. However, Wes Welker will eat much more into his targets than Demaryius Thomas so I don’t expect him to reach those numbers again.

Projection: 70 catches for 900 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns (138 pts standard, 208 pts PPR)

WR Wes Welker (Denver)

You heard it from Welker himself: “If I have to catch 112 balls, that probably means we’re in trouble.” The Broncos will spread it around more than the Patriots did. The Denver Post projects 75 catches for him. He’s also going into his age 32 season and has never been a touchdown threat. Let him be someone else’s problem. He’ll be overvalued, especially in non-PPR leagues.

Projection: 82 catches for 900 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns (120 pts standard, 202 pts PPR)

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Denver Broncos 2013 NFL Season Preview

August 1, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Broncos, Uncategorized

Introduction

The Broncos were on an 11-game winning streak last season going into the playoffs, but saw it come to a screeching halt with a home playoff loss to the Baltimore Ravens. What happened? You can blame Rahim Moore for one of the most boneheaded defensive plays of the season, but the Broncos also had two special teams touchdowns to help them. From a pure offense vs. defense standpoint, they were outplayed in that game, even if Moore had stayed in his position, and deserved to lose.

In hindsight, that loss should not have been so unpredictable. Teams on a 9+ game winning streak off a bye in the playoffs are just 4-5 since 1989 and not one of them has covered the spread. It clearly hurts a team to have to take a week off in the post-season in the middle of a long winning streak. On top of that, the Broncos’ winning streak was compiled against largely subpar teams, as they played just 2 teams that finished 8-8 or better over that winning streak. They might have just gotten complacent and it’s very possible they weren’t as good as their record would have suggested. Sure a 34-17 victory in Baltimore over those same Ravens in Baltimore 4 weeks prior suggested the Broncos were capable of beating playoff caliber teams and convincingly, but in hindsight, that loss isn’t that shocking.

This season, the Broncos add Wes Welker to the mix offensively and they are seen as the AFC favorite going into the season. That makes some sense. The reigning AFC #1 seed adds their biggest competition’s tough wide receiver. However, I don’t think that Peyton Manning will necessarily play better than he did last season. Manning completed 68.6% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA, 37 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions last season. In his career, he completes “just” 65.1% of his passes for 7.6 YPA, and roughly just over 2 touchdowns for every interception. His 2012 completion percentage was the 2^nd best of his career, his 2012 YPA the 3^rd best of his career, and his 2012 TD:INT ratio also the 3^rd best of his career. His 105.8 QB rating was 10 points higher than his career QB rating and the 2^nd highest of his career.

Sure, it’s possible that the addition of Welker can lead to be even further improved Manning, but I don’t find it that likely that Manning will surpass the arguably 2^nd best season of his career in what is his age 37 season. It’s more likely that regression to the mean and normal diminishing physical skills for a 37-year-old who has recently had a serious injury lead to an inferior 2013 as compared to 2012 for Manning. Sure, Manning’s mean is still one of the best in the game, but I don’t buy that the Broncos will be an improved offensive team (30.1 points per game in 2012, 2^nd in the NFL) just because of Wes Welker’s presence on the slot.

Defensively, the Broncos have lost starting defensive end Elvis Dumervil to the Ravens, a talented pass rusher opposite Von Miller. Miller himself has his status in doubt for the first 4 games of the season in violation of the league’s substance abuse policy. They’re still not a great team up the middle with a hole at middle linebacker and some questions at safety and defensive tackle. Meanwhile, top cornerback Champ Bailey is another year older and fresh off being exposed in the playoff loss to Baltimore. They ranked 4^th in the NFL allowing 18.1 points per game last season. That might not continue to be the case in 2013.

Like Manning, the team as a whole could see a little bit of regression to the mean. It’s a parity league, to the point where the average 13 win team wins, on average, 9.5 games the following season. The average team also sees their win total change by an average of 3 wins per season, in either direction. Going with that, teams that have a big win improvement, like the Broncos did in 2012 (going from 8 to 13) tend to regress about half of that the next season. I don’t think the Broncos are going to miss the playoffs or anything, but if I had to put money on them improving their win total/staying at 13 wins or going down to 12 wins or lower, I’d take the latter easily. I’m not convinced this is the team to beat in the AFC.

Quarterback

All that being said about Peyton Manning, he’s still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. His career averages of 65.1% completion, 7.6 YPA, 2.09:1 TD:INT ratio, and a QB rating of 95.7 would make for a good season any year and I don’t see why he can’t be around those numbers in 2013. He’s got a good receiving corps and offensive line and the ability to make both look better than they are. The Broncos will once again be among the highest scoring teams in the NFL, largely because of him. I just don’t think he’ll improve upon 2012 this season.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The passing game is clearly going to work fine for the Broncos this season. The question is the running game. With Willis McGahee gone, the Broncos have 3 backs competing for playing time, Montee Ball, Knowshon Moreno, and Ronnie Hillman. Ball was the 2^nd round pick this year and is the most talented of the trio, but John Fox notoriously hates playing rookies, especially at the running back position. Peyton Manning also requires his backs to pass protect and he could very well have a say in who plays running back this season. Ball played his college ball at Wisconsin, which was not a pass heavy team, even when they had Russell Wilson in 2011, so he’s understandably raw in pass protection.

Knowshon Moreno is the 3^rd back and the most veteran of the bunch. However, the Josh McDaniels era bust is just not very talented averaging 4.0 yards per carry for his carry, 3.8 yards per carry last season as the starter after McGahee went down. He’s also very injury prone. He could start the season as the primary inside runner, with Hillman as the change of pace back, but by October, expect Ball and Hillman to be splitting the carries. Moreno could be injured by then anyway. It’s a position with question marks.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

While their running backs will be helped by the defense focusing on Peyton Manning and the passing game, their offensive line isn’t going to help them out that much, as they ranked 22^nd on ProFootballFocus among run blocking offensive lines last season. They did much better in pass protection, or at least they appeared to. They ranked 1^st in the NFL in both pass block efficiency and pass block grade on ProFootballFocus, but the year before they were 23^rd in pass block grade and 31^st in pass block efficiency.

The switch from Tim Tebow, who holds the ball a very long time, to Peyton Manning, who has one of the quickest releases in the NFL, likely had something to do with that. In 2011, Tim Tebow led the NFL in seconds to throw at 3.65 seconds and it wasn’t even close. Michael Vick and Cam Newton were the only other two quarterbacks above 3 seconds and Vick, the 2^nd slowest to throw, was at 3.17 seconds.

Contrast that with Manning, who threw the ball on average 2.46 seconds after receiving it. I know ProFootballFocus takes that kind of thing into account with their grade, but I find it hard to believe that the Broncos’ offensive line legitimately in a vacuum went from the 23^rd best in 2011 to the 1^st best in 2012 and that the quarterback switch didn’t have anything to do with it. The fact that they’re actually a below average offensive line on the ground is also evidence that they’re not as good as Manning makes them seem.

In reality, they’re probably in between, though they might be close to 1^st than 23^rd. It’s very likely that the Broncos’ offensive line played better in 2012, just not that significantly better. The first reason for that is a return to form for left tackle Ryan Clady. Clady improved drastically on ProFootballFocus from 2011 to 2012, ranking 63^rd out of 76 eligible in 2011 before grading out 4^th at his position in 2012. His pass protection did improve significantly, but so did his run blocking so I truly believe he did play significantly better last season than in 2011, even if Manning’s blindside is exponentially easier to protect than Tim Tebow’s. Besides, he’s done this in the past, ranking 16^th in 2009 and 9^th in 2010 with that down year in between. I believe he’s truly a top-10 offensive tackle in the NFL and one of the best blindside protectors in the game.

Also improving significantly in 2012 was right tackle Orlando Franklin, going from average in 2011 to 18^th among tackles in 2012. Unlike Clady, his run blocking didn’t significantly improve and he actually committed 4 more penalties, so his improvement was pretty much entirely as a pass protector. The Tebow to Manning switch probably did have more to do with that than ProFootballFocus might have compensated for in their grading, but I do believe that the 2011 2^nd round pick improved significantly in his 2^nd year in the league and is actually an above average right tackle.

The player whose turnaround I most believe was quarterback related was the improvement of left guard Zane Beadles. Beadles was awful in 2011, grading out 6^th worst at his position, but he graded out 16^th at his position in 2012. The 2010 2^nd round pick had never done anything like that in the past though and he was a reach in the 2^nd round by the bizarre-drafting Josh McDaniels. I believe he’s maybe an average guard at best and someone that Manning makes look so much better than he actually is. He’s the weak point on their offensive line.

Their improvement at the center position from league worst JD Walton in 2011 is for real because they had a completely different player there, adding Dan Koppen before the season. Koppen played pretty well, despite his somewhat advanced age, but he tore his ACL in Training Camp in the past week and will miss the entirety of the 2013 season. JD Walton is out for at least the first 6-8 weeks of the season as well and, let’s face it, no one wants to see him try to start again, so the Broncos convinced Ryan Lilja to come out of retirement.

Lilja is a former teammate of Manning’s from Indianapolis, though he played guard there alongside Jeff Saturday. He’s been a guard for most of his career, playing very well there, but did surprisingly well at center last year for the Chiefs, grading out 14^th among centers on ProFootballFocus. He had a few minor issues with snaps and some times where you could tell he was a natural guard, but he played well and he’s only going into his age 32 season.

He didn’t retire out of lack of interest for his services. It seems like he just didn’t want to play football anymore (playing for a 2-14 team can do that to you). As long as he stayed in close to top shape during his “retirement” this off-season and as long as he’s mentally in this season 100%, he should be a nice pickup for the Broncos. It helps to have Manning as your pitchman.

Lilja is one of two new starters for the Broncos upfront on the offensive line, as they made a great move stealing right guard Louis Vasquez from division rival San Diego. Vasquez was a diamond in the rough on San Diego’s otherwise horrible offensive line, grading out well above average in all 4 seasons since being drafted in the 3^rd round in 2009 and he was a starter from the word go. He had his best season last year, when he graded out 13^th at his position and he’s clearly an above average guard.

He was well worth the 23.5 million over 4 years they paid him this off-season and he’ll upgrade what otherwise would have been a very questionable right guard position. Aside from Beadles, it’s actually a very strong offensive line. They might not be the best in the NFL, but they’re at least a top-10 line and Manning makes them look even better with his quick release.

Grade: A-

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Wes Welker was obviously the big addition in Denver this off-season. Brady made Welker look much better than he actually was in New England, but it’s not like Peyton Manning can’t continue to do the same thing. Hell, Brandon Stokley caught 48 passes for 571 yards and 6 touchdowns last season on just 63 targets and 405 pass snaps as the slot receiver last year and he was pretty much retired the year before. And at 12 million over 2 years, Welker is reasonably priced as well. He won’t see 100 catches again because the Broncos have plenty of receivers to spread the ball around to. In fact, even Welker himself admits that if he’s catching as many passes as he was in New England, it won’t be a good thing for the offense. He’s also going into his age 32 season. However, he’ll obviously be an asset for the Broncos.

Like Manning will make Welker look better than he is, he will continue to make Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker look better than they are. Both had great seasons last year in breakout 3^rd seasons in the league, but if they had any other quarterback, they wouldn’t have looked anywhere near as good. They also dropped 23 passes between them. Decker was clearly the inferior of the two and he’ll see a decrease in production this season with Welker coming in to give them another possession receiver option.

After largely being a non-factor in his first 2 years in the league, the 2010 3^rd round pick Decker caught 85 passes for 1064 yards and 13 touchdowns last season on 120 targets. Manning only had 3 interceptions when throwing to Decker last season, giving Manning a QB rating of 123.7 when throwing to Decker, 8th in the NFL among wide receivers. However, Decker still graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 36^th ranked wide receiver, thanks largely to his drops and his weak 3.4 yards after the catch per catch.

Thomas did much better after the catch, averaging 5.9 yards after catch per catch, and also showed great chemistry with Manning, catching 94 passes for 1430 yards and 10 touchdowns on 138 targets. Manning didn’t throw a single interception when targeting Thomas and as a result, Thomas ranked 5^th in the NFL in QB rating when thrown to. Unlike Decker, Welker won’t eat much into his production because they’re completely different types of receivers. He’ll remain their primary deep threat. He was 3^rd in the NFL with 16 catches on passes that travelled 20+ yards or more in the air.

Joel Dreessen and Jacob Tamme remain their primary two tight ends, but they should both see less action in 2013 with Welker coming in and the team expected to see even more 3-wide receiver sets. Tamme will be especially hurt because he was the #2 tight end, serving as a move tight end, with Dreessen as an inline player. He’ll also cut directly into his targets because they operate in very similar areas. Tamme caught 52 passes for 555 yards and 2 touchdowns on 80 targets last season and graded out as ProFootballFocus 6^th ranked pass catching tight end, though he can’t block at all.

Dreessen is the better all-around tight end, playing 877 snaps last season, 19^th at his position. He run blocked well and he also contributed as a pass catcher, catching 41 passes for 356 yards and 5 touchdowns on 57 targets last season. It’s hard to see him doing much more than that this season. Overall, it’s a very talented receiving corps, but I don’t know if it can work at much of a higher efficiency than it was last season. Both Brandon Stokley and Jacob Tamme were very efficient as pass catchers in the slot last season, catching 69.9% of their targets, because of Manning. I don’t know how much better than that Welker can be. It’s part of the reason why I think it’s more likely Manning has a worse season in 2013 than in 2012.

Grade: A

Defensive Line

As I mentioned, the Broncos lost Elvis Dumervil this off-season and could be without Von Miller for the first 4 games of the season with a suspension. For that reason, holdover Robert Ayers and free agent acquisition Shaun Phillips will see bigger roles. Ayers will start at defensive end in Dumervil’s old spot. He played well on 333 snaps last season, but he has struggled whenever he’s been counted to start in the past and the 2009 1^st round pick looks like another Josh McDaniels era bust. He’s a better run stuffer than pass rusher and ideally he’d split snaps with pass rush specialist Shaun Phillips, but Phillips is probably going to play in Miller’s old role for the first 4 games of the season, playing linebacker on in base packages and moving to the defensive line on passing downs.

Phillips is pretty washed up though. He’s going into his age 32 season this season and was ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd lowest ranked 3-4 rush linebacker last season, which is why he had to settle for a non-lucrative one year deal this off-season. He was awful against the run, ranked dead last at his position against the run and it wasn’t even really close. He did have 9 sacks, but only 6 hits and 23 hurries on 428 pass rush snaps, an 8.8% pass rush rate. He was 20^th at his position out of 32 eligible in pass rush productivity and 28^th out of 34 eligible in pass rush grade.

Miller was the only other player besides JJ Watt to get a defensive player of the year vote last season and he deserved it, as good as Watt was. He was by far ProFootballFocus’ 1^st ranked 4-3 outside linebacker and he was their 3^rd ranked overall defensive player behind JJ Watt and Geno Atkins. He was an incredibly productive pass rusher, with 19 sacks, 15 hits, and 52 hurries on 470 pass rush snaps, an absurd 18.3% pass rush rate. He also excelled against the run. He ranked 1^st at his position in 2011 as well, when he won Defensive Rookie of the Year, so last season wasn’t a fluke. He’s one of the most valuable non-quarterbacks in the NFL and the Broncos’ 2^nd most irreplaceable player.

Miller plays defensive end on passing downs when he’s in the lineup and will probably play opposite Shaun Phillips. However, while Miller is out, Phillips will be an every down player and play on the defensive line opposite Robert Ayers on passing downs. It’s a downgrade and it also hurts that Dumervil is gone. Regardless of Miller’s situation, Derek Wolfe and Robert Ayers will be the base ends. I’ve already mentioned Ayers, Wolfe is going into his 2^nd year after going in the 2^nd round in the 2012 NFL Draft.

Wolfe will continue to play an every down role as a defensive end in base packages as a defensive tackle in sub packages. He played the run well as a rookie, especially at defensive end, but he didn’t get any pass rush, with 6 sacks, 7 hits, and 12 hurries on 530 pass rush snaps, a 4.7% pass rush rate. He was ProFootballFocus’ 54^th ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 62 eligible, ranking dead last as a pass rusher, but 9^th as a run stuffer. He could be better in his 2^nd year though.

As I mentioned, on passing downs, he plays at defensive tackle. Kevin Vickerson and Justin Bannan were good run stuffers who couldn’t get to the quarterback last season. Bannan is gone, but Vickerson returns as a starter, next to Terrance Knighton, who comes over from Jacksonville, reuniting with Jack Del Rio, the former Jacksonville Head Coach who is Denver’s defensive coordinator. Knighton is a similar player, a big run stuffer at 6-3 317 who doesn’t get to the quarterback. The Broncos will once again be counting on Derek Wolfe for interior pass rush, along with 1^st round pick rookie Sylvester Williams, who will probably see only a situational role as a rookie.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Along with Von Miller playing in base packages at linebacker, the Broncos also have Wesley Woodyard and Nate Irving, who will probably both play every down. Woodyard definitely will, as he played that role last season. He struggled against the run at 6-0 227, but he was excellent in coverage and graded out above average overall. Last year was his first year as a starter and he struggled as a situational player in the past so I’ll have to see it from the 2008 undrafted free agent again.

Nate Irving, meanwhile, could only play two-down as a run stuffer, with either Danny Trevathan or Steven Johnson playing a situational coverage role. Whoever plays there, they probably won’t get good play from the middle linebacker spot. Irving, a 2011 3^rd round pick as played just 42 snaps in 2 seasons in the league and Johnson and Trevathan are equally inexperienced. Johnson played 6 snaps as an undrafted rookie last season, while Trevathan struggled on 243 snaps as a 6^th round rookie.

Grade: B

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Secondary

The Broncos’ secondary got lit up by the Ravens in the playoffs and Champ Bailey and Rahim Moore got most of the blame. However, both played well last season before that game and it’s important not to judge either too much on one game. Bailey graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 10th ranked cornerback last season, allowing 40 catches on 74 attempts for 479 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and committing 6 penalties. He’s been a top-10 cornerback in 4 of the last 5 seasons, with his worst season since 2008 coming in 2011, when he ranked 18th at his position. He allowed 5 catches for 128 yards and 2 touchdowns on 7 attempts in that playoff loss and he’s going into his age 37 season so maybe that was the beginning of the end. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he declined this season.

While fans know Bailey as a future Hall of Famer, most casual football fans know Rahim Moore for one thing, his role in the Mile High Miracle in Denver’s eventual playoff loss to the Ravens in last year’s AFC divisional round. For those of you who need a refresher, the heavily underdogged Ravens trailed by 7 with the ball on their own 30 with under 40 seconds left in the 4th quarter. The Broncos came out in prevent defense, as is always the case in that type of situation, and the #1 rule of the prevent defense is don’t let anything get completed behind you. Play deep and don’t jump any routes. If you only allow completions in front of you, eventually the clock will run out and you’ll win. It’s very fundamental football stuff and it’s especially imperative for a safety. They’re called safeties for a reason; they are the last line of the defense.

Rahim Moore, starting free safety for the Broncos, decided instead to try to be a hero and the rest was history. Moore jumped a route on a deep ball thrown from Joe Flacco to Jacoby Jones, going for the interception and the ultimate icer. Not only did he break one of the biggest rules of prevent defense, he missed by a good 5 yards and didn’t even come close to getting the interception, falling in his attempt to pick off the ball. This allowed Jones to get behind him easily and reel in what ended up being a 70 yard touchdown to send the game to overtime, where the Ravens eventually won, sending home the heavily favored #1 seed Broncos home early and spurring an eventual Super Bowl Championship for the Ravens.

That play was an absolute disaster for Moore and he’s undoubtedly spent the entire off-season trying to move past that. However, you cannot judge a player on one play. While that is the worst single snap I’ve seen a safety play in years, Moore played 1160 other snaps last season, including playoffs and was overall a very solid football player. He should be judged more on those instead and have his entire body of work taken into account. He finished the regular season as ProFootballFocus’ 10th rated safety, grading out above average in both run defense and pass defense and only committing 2 penalties. He allowed just 19 completions all regular season and even in that playoff game he was otherwise solid, not missing a tackle and allowing just one other completion for 5 yards.

Going into his 3rd year in the league, I expect the 2011 2nd round pick out of UCLA to put the Mile High Miracle behind him and have his best season as a pro yet. I expect another top-10 season on ProFootballFocus from him and he’ll have a shot at a Pro-Bowl if he picks off enough passes. Sadly that’s how all defensive backs are judged by the common football fan and Moore only has 2 in his 2 seasons in the league, but he picked off 10 as a sophomore at UCLA in 2009, so he has that kind of ability (which just shows why a player shouldn’t be judged by only his interception total, it’s so inconsistent on a year to year basis; it’s like judging a quarterback on how many completions of 40+ yards he has). For his sake, I hope that happens because it’s unfair for him to be judged by one play and one play only.

Even though the Broncos had a pretty good pass defense before the Baltimore game, they still felt upgrading their secondary was a big need this off-season. In order to fill this need, they signed Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. He was the 16thoverall pick in 2008 and made the Pro-Bowl in 2009, a year in which he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 4thrated cornerback. However, he doesn’t always play up to his talent and he has inconsistent effort.

He was a throw in to Philadelphia in the Kevin Kolb trade after graded out as ProFootballFocus’ worst cornerback in 2010 and he wasn’t much better in 2 years in Philadelphia, grading out 98^th out of 113 eligible cornerbacks in 2012. Perhaps only being able to get a one-year prove it deal on the open market will wake him up. It might also help him that he’ll be on a competitive team for the first time since 2009, when his Cardinals won the NFC West.

However, DRC will move into the starting lineup and push out Chris Harris and Tony Carter. Harris and Carter ranked 5^th and 28^th among eligible cornerbacks in 2012. Harris allowed 44 catches on 75 attempts for 450 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and committing 1 penalty. He also was great against the run, grading out 2^nd at his position in that aspect. Last year was no fluke because he was 22^nd at his position as an undrafted rookie in 2011, despite being just a part-time player. Carter, meanwhile, allowed 32 catches on 65 attempts for 436 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 7 passes and committing 2 penalties.

Harris will move to the slot with DRC coming in, which might actually be a better fit for his skill set, even if it’s only a part time role. He had the 6^th best QB rating among cornerbacks on the slot last season. However, Carter will be the 4^th cornerback though, so he won’t see a lot of action, unless there are injuries, despite how well he played last season. If I were a cornerback needy team, I’d give up a mid to late round pick for him easily. I don’t think the DRC addition is really much of an addition and it might even make their secondary worse, especially if he continues to struggle.

The other off-season addition was Quentin Jammer, who comes over from San Diego and will convert from cornerback to safety in the tail end of his career. However, he’s awful. He was ProFootballFocus’ 107^th ranked cornerback out of 113 eligible last season and now he’s heading into his age 34 season. He could be better at safety, but he might not even make the roster. He was brought in to compete with veteran journeyman Mike Adams. He played alright last season, grading out just above average, but he can’t be trusted heading into his age 32 season. Quinton Carter, an inexperienced 2011 4^th round pick, is also in the mix, but he was awful in 2011, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 81^st ranked safety out of 87 eligible, before playing just 15 snaps last season. It’s a position of weakness opposite Rahim Moore.

Grade: A-

Head Coach

John Fox has been in the NFL a long time, coaching 11 seasons, including 9 with the Panthers 2 with the Broncos. He has a career 94-82 regular season record and 6-5 postseason record, including a trip to the Super Bowl. He’s not one of the best coaches in the NFL and he’s had some awful years (2-14 with the Panthers in 2010), but he’s had some good ones too (11+ wins in 2003, 2005, and 2008, and 2012) and he’s managed to stay around a long time.

Grade: B

Overall

As I said earlier, I think the Broncos are a little overrated. I don’t think they’re clearly the best team in the AFC like the consensus seems to be. That being said, they should still win a bunch of games. They’re the best team in the division and they should be able to win at least 4 games, maybe 5. Kansas City will be better, but Oakland and San Diego are both very easy opponents so that should be 4 relatively easy wins.

Outside of the division, they host Baltimore, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Washington, and Tennessee. Philadelphia, Jacksonville, and Tennessee should be easy wins and they should at least split the other team. I think they’ll beat Washington, but Baltimore is being a little overlooked and they could take that slight, as well as the slight of having to start their season on the road, into Denver and win where they won last season. Defending Super Bowl champs usually win week 1.

They also go to the Giants, Dallas, Indianapolis, New England, and Houston, all 5 of whom are quality teams. They should lose 2 or 3 of those games, which puts them at 11 or 12 wins, not an improvement over last season, but still a very strong season. They’ll probably win a 1^st round bye in the AFC and head into the post-season as one of the leading contenders for the Super Bowl. I have them at 11-5.

Projection: 11-5 1^st in AFC West

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Jacksonville Jaguars 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

July 31, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Jaguars, Uncategorized

QB Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville)

8/20/13: Blaine Gabbert has won the Jaguars’ starting quarterback job, but don’t draft him. He’s not very good and will likely cede multiple starts to Chad Henne, like he did last year. In 10 games last year, Gabbert threw for 1662 yards and 9 touchdowns, with 6 interceptions and 56 rushing yards. I wouldn’t bet on him doing much more than that this season.

Projection: 1800 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 70 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (105 pts standard, 125 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Maurice Jones Drew (Jacksonville)

MJD returns from an injury plagued season in which he played just 6 games and saw just 86 carries before going down with a foot injury. It’s possible he could bounce back this season, but he is going into his age 28 season and after all the work he had from 2009-2011 (1084 touches), it’s possible he’ll never be the same back again. He’s still suffering through lingering effects of that injury.

Projection: 250 carries for 1150 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 50 catches for 370 yards (200 pts standard, 250 pts PPR)

WR Cecil Shorts (Jacksonville)

Shorts averaged 2.31 yards per route run last season, 8th in the NFL behind Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Michael Crabtree, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Vincent Jackson, and AJ Green. In his 9 starts, he caught 47 passes for 774 yards and 5 touchdowns, which extrapolates to 84 catches for 1386 yards and 9 touchdowns over 16 games. He probably won’t reach those aforementioned extrapolated stats because defenses will key in on him more this year, but he has a very good chance to be Jacksonville’s first 1000 yard receiver since Jimmy Smith in 2005.

Projection: 70 catches for 1100 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (152 pts standard, 222 pts PPR)

WR Justin Blackmon (Jacksonville)

Blackmon had a good rookie year, with 64 catches for 865 yards and 5 touchdowns, as the 5th overall pick exceeded the average production for a 1st round rookie. However, he had over a quarter of his production in one game (a 7 catch, 231 yard performance against Houston) and he was, as you can imagine, very inconsistent. His 4 game suspension for substance abuse is a real concern, especially since he also has a DUI history and it will put a damper on his potential production this season. He could also find himself very much behind the 8-ball when he returns.

Projection: 48 catches for 640 receiving yards 4 touchdowns (88 pts standard, 136 pts PPR)

TE Marcedes Lewis (Jacksonville)

With Blackmon missing 4 games and their lack of depth at wide receiver, tight end Marcedes Lewis will be leaned on more in the passing game this season. Lewis was overpaid with a 5-year, 35 million dollar contract after an uncharacteristic 58/700/10 season in 2010, but he’s not a bad player. He’s a good blocker and his receiving numbers would be better if he had better quarterback play. Last season, he caught 52 passes for 540 yards and 4 touchdowns. He should see an increase in receiving production this season.

Projection: 50 catches for 600 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (90 pts standard, 140 pts PPR)

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Jacksonville Jaguars 2013 NFL Season Preview

July 31, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Introduction

The Jaguars won just 2 games last season. Usually teams who are that bad bounce back at least somewhat the following season. It’s really hard to be that bad for that long. Going along with that, the Jaguars also have a pre-season over/win total of 5.5 wins and teams with an over/under win total of 6 or fewer usually see the over hit about 2/3rds of the time, largely due to the aforementioned reason.

However, it wouldn’t really surprise me to see the Jaguars once again be one of, if not the worst team in the NFL again. There is nothing to suggest they were much better than their record suggested last season. They had the 2^nd worst Pythagorean Expectation in the NFL at 3.4 wins, thanks to a -189 point differential that was 2^nd worst in the NFL. They faced a pretty easy schedule and ranked a close worst 2^nd to Kansas City in DVOA.

They didn’t get destroyed in turnovers, losing the turnover battle by only 3 and actually had a 59.5% fumble recovery rate that is more luck than anything. They got outgained by 1300 yards, worst in the NFL. They did lose the 2^nd most adjusted games to injuries out of all teams, but aside from Maurice Jones-Drew and solid safety Dwight Lowery, they weren’t really missing guys who would have made much of a difference had they been healthy.

Unlike teams who usually win so few games, they did nothing to address the quarterback position this off-season and while they had the 2^nd pick in the draft, it was in an unusually weak draft in terms of top level talent. #2 overall pick Luke Joeckel will slot in at right tackle for them this season and I don’t know how much better that makes them. On top of that, they lost 3 starters in the secondary and will be filling them with rookies and journeyman. On paper, there might not be a less talented team in the NFL this season. The 5 wins they had 2 years ago in 2011 seems like a realistic ceiling right now.

Quarterback

As I mentioned, the Jaguars didn’t bring in a quarterback at all this off-season, opting to let Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert battle it out for another season. In the long run, that might not be such a bad move. It’s very possible that no quarterback in the 2013 draft turns out to be a functional long term starter and not drafting one allows them to go after a quarterback like Teddy Bridgewater early in 2014, a much better quarterback class, if the opportunity presents itself. Plus, with Gabbert and Henne, it’s very, very possible that they’ll be picking early enough for the opportunity to present itself.

It’s unclear if this was new GM Dave Caldwell’s plan, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it was. According to reports, Caldwell plans to spend much of the year scouting top quarterback prospects, including Bridgewater and Clemson’s Tajh Boyd. They were also reportedly thrilled that the Jets and Bills took quarterbacks early in 2013, because it eliminated two competitors for top quarterbacks in 2014. It’s also very possible that he wanted to see one more time what Blaine Gabbert has since he is just 2 years removed from being a 1^st round pick, but he was a misguided 1^st round pick in the first place. They never should have drafted him there. That was clear from the day they drafted him. He was a media hype kid and nothing else.

Gabbert might not even get another opportunity to see the field if the coaching staff and front office see everything in the pre-season and Training Camp that they need to see from him to know he’s not a viable solution. Chad Henne could very well win this starting job, which would be bad news for Jaguars fans. You know what you have in Chad Henne. He’s probably the better of the two, but only by enough to possibly help them win too many games to play themselves out of a top-5 pick and nothing more. They might as well sink or swim with Gabbert.

In two years in the league, Gabbert has completed just 53.8% of his passes for an average of 5.6 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. Henne, meanwhile, has completed 59.1% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA, 42 touchdowns, and 48 interceptions in 5 seasons with the Dolphins and Jaguars since going in the 2^nd round in 2008. The Jaguars moved the ball better when he was in the lineup last year, but he was also wildly inconsistent, as he always has been, and very turnover prone.

Grade: D

Offensive Line

The Jaguars drafted Luke Joeckel with the 2^nd overall pick, largely to give themselves the best situation in which to evaluate Gabbert. Joeckel was a collegiate left tackle, but he’ll make the transition to the right side this season and once he gets it down, he should find it an easier position to play because you’re generally not facing your opponent’s best pass rusher. It’s tough to project above average play from rookies, but the Jaguars should get that from Joeckel this season.

He’ll certainly be an upgrade over the Guy Whimper/Cameron Bradfield duo that has been playing there over the past 2 seasons. Whimper was ProFootballFocus’ 54^th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible in 2011 (allowing 14 sacks in the process) and then he ranked 74^th out of 80 eligible in 2012, despite playing just 392 snaps. He’s now in Pittsburgh, thankfully for Jacksonville’s sake. Bradfield played most of last season at right tackle after impressing in very limited action in 2011, but the 2011 undrafted free agent graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 56^th ranked offensive tackle out of 80 eligible. He’ll serve more of a swing tackle role this season, which is much better suited to his skill set.

The reason the Jaguars will be playing Joeckel at right tackle is because they actually already have one of the better left tackles in the NFL in Eugene Monroe. Monroe is by far the Jaguars’ best player and he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 15^th ranked offensive tackle last season and 6^th ranked in 2011. The 2009 1^st round pick doesn’t get a lot of recognition because he plays in Jacksonville and poor quarterback play makes him look worse than he is. The 14 sacks he’s allowed in the last 2 seasons have more to do with quarterbacks holding the ball too long and displaying poor pocket presence than anything.

He’s going into a contract year this off-season and even after drafting Joeckel, the Jaguars should do everything possible to lock him up, even if they have to franchise tag him. It doesn’t make any sense to do Joeckel just to let Monroe go. That’s a completely horizontal move and, plus, NFL teams can come at the quarterback from both sides more than they ever have been able to before so having two good tackles is an asset.

Unfortunately, things aren’t as good on the interior of their offensive line. Right guard Uche Nwanari is consistently an average to above average and dependable guard, though overpaid on a weird 5 year, 24 million dollar extension signed before the 2010 season. The concern here is that he’s coming off two knee operations and had to have stem cell treatment on the knee this off-season. It seems fine now, but that’s never what you want to hear. Still, he’s by far their best interior offensive lineman.

At center, Brad Meester has been a solid and dependable center throughout his career, all with the Jaguars, but he’s heading into his age 36 season, which will be his 14^th with the Jaguars. He looked pretty done last season, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd worst ranked center and he considered retirement this off-season. He’s back for one more year, but it’ll probably be his last in the NFL and I don’t expect him to really play much better.

At left guard, things are even worse as the Jaguars used 3 players there last season, Mike Brewster, Eben Britton, and Austin Pasztor, two of whom (Brewster and Pasztor) were undrafted rookies. Brewster certainly played like one, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd worst ranked guard despite playing just 556 snaps. Britton might have been even worse. Playing just 273 snaps, he wasn’t eligible for the rankings, but if he had been, he would have ranked 5^th worst at the position, despite such limited playing time. Pasztor started the final 3 games of the season and played alright, but it’s tough to count on him going forward.

Will Rackley will return to at least get the first crack at what was once his starting job. However, the 2011 3^rd round pick struggled mightily as a rookie in 2011, grading out as by far the worst player at his position. He could be better now that he’s not a rookie, but he’s also coming off an ankle injury that cost him the entirety of his 2012 season, so it’s very hard to count on anything other than poor play from him. He’ll face a little bit of competition from Pasztor and Brewster, but it looks like it’s definitely his job to lose. Brewster may slot in as the 2^nd string center, moving back to his collegiate position. Things are a mess on the inside of the line, which will hold them down, as good as their tackles are.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

The Jaguars’ poor interior offensive line play will not help Maurice Jones-Drew out much. MJD returns from an injury plagued season in which he played just 6 games and saw just 86 carries before going down with a foot injury. It’s possible he could bounce back this season, but he is going into his age 28 season and after all the work he had from 2009-2011 (1084 touches), it’s possible he’ll never be the same back again. He’s still suffering through lingering effects of that injury.

It’s very important that MJD stay healthy because, once again, they don’t really have a backup plan. The Jaguars tried Rashad Jennings, Montell Owens, Jalen Parmele, Richard Murphy, and Keith Totson in MJD’s absence last year and none of them did well. A few of them even got hurt themselves. The Jaguars managed just 3.8 yards per carry last season, 24^th in the NFL. If you take out MJD’s production, they averaged just 3.5 yards per carry. It was so bad that Jones-Drew actually still led the team in rushing in just 6 games on 86 carries.

None of those guys return, but neither Jordan Todman nor Justin Forsett seems well equipped to handle being the lead back if Jones-Drew goes down again. They also added Denard Robinson in the 5^th round of the draft, but the former quarterback is much too small to carry the load at running back. At best, the player they’re describing as an “offensive weapon” will see a few touches per game as a running back/wide receiver hybrid and he probably won’t make much of an impact, regardless of MJD’s injury status. Back to Jones-Drew, he’s in a contract year and could be in his final season with the team. The Jaguars look smart for not giving him the money he asked for last off-season, heading into the tail end of his career.

Grade: B

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

At wide receiver, the Jaguars do have a possible budding star in Cecil Shorts. When your quarterbacks are Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert, it’s tough to put up big time numbers as a receiver, but 2nd year receiver Cecil Shorts did a good job of that in 2012 as the 2011 4th round pick caught 55 passes for 979 yards and 7 touchdowns. He caught his 55 passes on 101 targets, which is a low catch rate of 54.5% and he did drop 9 passes, but he was a big time big play receiver, averaging 17.8 yards per attempt and quarterbacks threw 7 touchdowns to 4 interceptions when throwing to him.

That’s good for a 94.5 QB rating when thrown to, 15th in the NFL among eligible wide receivers, which is absurd considering his quarterbacks were Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne, who combined for a 74.7 QB rating on the season. How did he manage that? Well, he ranked 10th among eligible wide receivers averaging 6.7 yards after catch per catch. Only Percy Harvin caught more passes and averaged a higher yards after catch per catch than Shorts.

Even more impressive, he did this despite missing 2 games with injuries and not playing more than 50% of his team’s snaps until the team’s 6th game of the season. He ran 423 routes on the season, giving him 2.31 yards per route run, 8th in the NFL behind Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Michael Crabtree, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Vincent Jackson, and AJ Green. In his 9 starts, he caught 47 passes for 774 yards and 5 touchdowns, which extrapolates to 84 catches for 1386 yards and 9 touchdowns over 16 games.

On top of that, it didn’t seem to matter to him which crappy quarterback was throwing to him. In his 3 starts with Blaine Gabbert, he caught 12 passes for 242 yards and 2 touchdowns. With Chad Henne, he caught 35 passes for 532 yards and 3 touchdowns. That’s good news because the Jaguars could go with either Chad Henne or Blaine Gabbert this year and will probably have both start at least one game.

In 2013, Shorts will be in his 3rd year in the league, a frequent breakout year for receivers, and he’ll be the starter from week 1. Provided he stays healthy, he should make 16 starts. Justin Blackmon is suspended for the first 4 games of the season (more on that in a minute), so Shorts will see plenty of targets. He’ll also see more attention from defenses and he won’t seek up on anyone this time around, but he should be fine. He probably won’t reach those aforementioned extrapolated stats because defenses will key in on him more this year, but he has a very good chance to be Jacksonville’s first 1000 yard receiver since Jimmy Smith in 2005. He’ll probably need a real quarterback before he can reach his true statistical potential, however.

Shorts will play opposite Justin Blackmon, once Blackmon returns from his 4-game suspension of course. Blackmon had a good rookie year, with 64 catches for 865 yards and 5 touchdowns, as the 5^th overall pick exceeded the average production for a 1^st round rookie. However, he had over a quarter of his production in one game (a 7 catch, 231 yard performance against Houston) and he was, as you can imagine, very inconsistent. His 4 game suspension for substance abuse is a real concern, especially since he also has a DUI history and it will put a damper on his potential production this season. He could also find himself very much behind the 8-ball when he returns.

The Jaguars have very little depth after Shorts and Blackmon, a concern considering Blackmon will miss those 4 games. Depth receiver caliber talent Mohamed Massaquoi will probably start in Blackmon’s absence in those 4 games, though he’ll face competition from Mike Brown, an undersized 2012 undrafted free agent from Liberty who didn’t catch a pass as a rookie. He’s gotten praise from the coaching staff, but the fact that he’s involved in this battle shows just how little depth the Jaguars have.

Brown will also compete with Jordan Shipley from the slot role. Shipley showed well in that role down the stretch last season, catching 23 passes for 244 yards and a touchdown in 6 games, but prior to that, he had bounced around for almost 2 years because of injury problems. He has an extensive history of knee issues that date back to his collegiate days at Texas. He could be a decent slot receiver if he could stay healthy, but that’s not likely.

With Blackmon missing 4 games and their lack of depth at wide receiver, tight end Marcedes Lewis will be leaned on more in the passing game this season. Lewis was overpaid with a 5-year, 35 million dollar contract after an uncharacteristic 58/700/10 season in 2010, but he’s not a bad player. He’s a good blocker and his receiving numbers would be better if he had better quarterback play. Last season, he caught 52 passes for 540 yards and 4 touchdowns and graded out overall as ProFootballFocus’ 4^th ranked tight end, largely due to the fact that he was 5^th at his position in run blocking. He should see an increase in receiving production this season.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

New Head Coach Gus Bradley was formerly the defensive coordinator in Seattle so he will be using the same concepts that the Seahawks use on the defensive line. Unfortunately, the talent is nowhere near as strong. Tyson Alualu will convert from defensive tackle to defensive end to play the Red Bryant role. The surprise 10^th overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, Alualu has struggled mightily in 3 years at defensive tackle, grading out 60^th out of 77 eligible defensive tackles in 2010, 85^th out of 88 eligible in 2011, and 79^th out of 85 eligible in 2012. The collegiate 5-technique defensive end has especially struggled against the run at 6-2 292, so a move to defensive end could help him, but it’s hard to get your hopes up. He’ll be primarily a run down, base package player.

Andre Branch will probably play the Bruce Irvin role and come in on passing downs. Branch was a 2^nd round pick in 2012, but struggled mightily as a rookie, especially as a pass rusher. He had just 1 sack, 2 hits, and 11 hurries on 258 pass rush snaps, a pathetic 5.4% rate, and was the 11^th worst player at his position in pass rush grade, despite limited playing time. He’s got athleticism at 6-6 259, but it doesn’t seem to be a role that will suit his skill set.

Jason Babin looks like the starter and possible every down end opposite Alualu, which would be the Chris Clemons role. Babin was ProFootballFocus’ 10^th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2010 with the Titans and 9^th ranked in 2011 with the Eagles, but last year he graded out just above average and was cut mid-season by the Eagles, before being claimed by the Jaguars. Going into his age 33 season, his best days are clearly behind him.

Jeremy Mincey led this defensive line in snaps played last season, but seems to be in positional limbo right now after being benched out of the 1^st team. He’ll probably play a little bit on both sides of the line at end and also some defensive tackle as a pure pass rusher, in the Jason Jones role. He was given a big 4 year, 28 million dollar contract after a strong 2011 season, but he had never done anything like that before and proved to be the classic one year wonder in 2012, when he graded out below average, especially struggling as a pass rusher, but making up for it some as a run stopper.

At defensive tackle, the trio of CJ Mosley, Terrance Knighton, and Tyson Alualu is gone, with Mosley and Knighton elsewhere and Alualu at end. The Jaguars brought in 4 defensive tackles this off-season, but they’ll probably be disappointed in them, especially since Mosley and Knighton actually gave them good production last season as the starters.

Sen’Derrick Marks comes over from Tennessee and figures to get one starting spot. He’s awful, however. Last season was actually his best season in 3 years as a key contributor, ranking 73rd out of 85 eligible. He was a bottom-10 player in 2010 and 2011. Roy Miller will start in the other spot. He also had his best season last year, when he ranked 67^th out of 85 eligible. He was 83^rd out of 88 in 2011, 75^th out of 77 in 2010, and 74^th out of 87 in 2009. He’s a one dimensional run stuffer who doesn’t get any pass rush whatsoever. That’s a pretty poor starting defensive tackle pair.

They also signed Kyle Love and Brandon Deaderick from New England. Both are one dimensional run stuffers, and while Love is the better player above the very mediocre Deaderick, he’s also been diagnosed with diabetes, a big part of the reason why he was cut. We’ll see how he handles that. Any way you look at it, there’s just not a lot of talent at defensive tackle and on the defensive line in general. They won’t get much pass rush or stop the run well.

Grade: C

Linebackers

Things aren’t much better as you go into the back 7. Paul Posluszny had a bunch of tackles last season, but largely did so cleaning up everyone else’s messes and had just 58 tackles for a stop (with 4 yards of the line of scrimmage on 1^st down, 6 yards on 2^nd down, and the full distance on 3^rd and 4^th down). He was 47^th out of 53 eligible middle linebackers on ProFootballFocus. He’s been better in the past though so he could bounce back.

Outside linebacker Russell Allen is in a similar situation. The every down linebacker had a bunch of tackles, but just 56 of them were for stops and he ranked 34^th out of 43 eligible at his position. Unlike Posluszky, the 1^st year starter has not been better in the past so I expect him to continue to struggle. Geno Hayes will be the 3^rd linebacker and come off the field for a 5^th defensive back in sub packages. He’s not much better, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 42^nd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker out of 45 eligible in 2011 and then playing just 141 snaps last season.

Grade: C+

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Secondary

The secondary might be the worst unit of them all. They lost 3 starters in Derek Cox, Aaron Ross, and Dawan Landry and while none of them were very good, their replacements don’t figure to be much better. At cornerback, unproven 3^rd round rookie Dwayne Gratz will compete for playing time with Alan Ball and Marcus Trufant, with all 3 playing in sub packages. Ball has played just 508 snaps over the past 2 seasons after struggling mightily as a starting safety with the Cowboys in 2010, his only starting experience.

Trufant, meanwhile, played pretty well on the slot for the Seahawks last season, but did so on just 365 snaps and struggled mightily before moving to the slot, grading out below average in each season from 2009-2011 as an outside cornerback. Going into his age 33 season with a history of injury problems, it’s tough to count on him, though he does have familiarity in Gus Bradley’s scheme, following him over from Seattle. Mike Harris will be the 4^th cornerback and could very well see action. He struggled as a 6^th round rookie last year, grading out 88^th out of 113 eligible cornerbacks and isn’t a good fit for the new coverage scheme, which is why he’s 4^th on the depth chart behind that trio.

At safety, Jonathan Cyprien will start as a 2^nd round rookie. I like him more than I like Gratz as a rookie starter so he could have a positive impact as a rookie, but, once again, it’s tough to count on a rookie. The bright spot in this secondary is safety Dwight Lowery. He’s a returning starter and played pretty well last season, grading out 16^th among safeties last season despite missing 7 games with injury. The year before, he was an average starter in his first year as a starter. He’s the only member of this secondary you can even come close to calling an above average starter. They figure to struggle mightily on defense again, after allowing 27.8 points per game last season, 3^rd worst in the NFL. The talent is just not there as it’s replacement level talent across the board essentially. I like Gus Bradley, but unless the rookies have big 1^st years, I don’t know what he can do in his 1^st year on the job.

Grade: C-

Head Coach

As I said, I like Gus Bradley. You can attribute a lot of Seattle’s recent defensive success to him, as the Seahawks have turned Chris Clemons, Bobby Wagner, KJ Wright, Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, and Brandon Browner from largely unwanted commodities to big time impact players. I just don’t know what he’ll be able to do with this mess in his first year on the job and I like to temper expectations for first year coaches anyway. There have certainly been plenty of good coordinators who have flamed out as Head Coaches in the past.

Grade: B-

Overall

I’m going to be honest. I didn’t put as much work into this write up as I normally do. After a while, it just felt like you get the point. There isn’t a lot of talent here and they are unlikely to win many games. I could have just said they suck. I only see 4 games on their schedule where they really stand a chance (vs. Tennessee, vs. Buffalo, vs. San Diego, @ Oakland) and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they only won a game or two again. It’s going to be a long rebuild from all the damage that Gene Smith caused and they’re essentially working from scratch.

Projection: 1-15 4^th in AFC South

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Houston Texans 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

July 30, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Texans, Uncategorized

QB Matt Schaub (Houston)

It’s hard to see Schaub playing much differently than he did last season, when he had 4008 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He remains a solid QB2, albeit one who has missed 16 games in 6 seasons as a starter.

Projection: 4000 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 20 rushing yards, 0 touchdowns (226 pts standard, 270 pts 6 pt leagues)

RB Arian Foster (Houston)

Arian Foster averaged a career low 4.1 yards per carry in 2012, thanks to the loss of two starting offensive linemen. His YPC has been trended down since he lost fullback Vonta Leach and he’s also had a lot of work over the past few years. he’s had 1115 regular season touches, plus another 128 post-season touches.

Last season, he led the NFL with 351 carries which is bad news for his 2013. Since 1988, only 4 of 24 running backs who led the league in carries surpassed their rushing yards total the following season. In that time period, backs who lead the league in carries have averaged 367.7 carries per season, rushed for 1620.4 yards, and scored 14.3 touchdowns. The following season, they averaged 266.0 carries per season, rushed for 1063.5 yards, and scored 8.9 touchdowns. Foster is already nursing a calf injury in Training Camp. He’s also seen his catches drop from 66 to 53 to 40 over the past 3 seasons. Let him be someone else’s problem.

Projection: 260 carries for 1040 rushing yards 11 total touchdowns 38 catches for 300 yards (200 pts standard, 238 pts PPR)

RB Ben Tate (Houston)

In the likely event that Foster struggles or gets hurt, it will open the door for Ben Tate. Tate struggled through injuries of his own in 2012, rushing for 279 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 65 carries, but in 2011, he rushed for 942 yards and 4 touchdowns on 175 carries. In the 8 games he had double digit carries, he managed 721 yards and 4 touchdowns on 133 carries. He’s a more than capable #2 back and fill in starter when necessary, assuming he doesn’t get hurt himself. He’s played just 26 of a possible 48 games in his first 3 seasons in the NFL thanks to various injuries. Still, he’s a very, very valuable handcuff.

Projection: 160 carries for 720 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 16 catches for 110 receiving yards (113 pts standard, 129 pts PPR)

WR Andre Johnson (Houston)

The Texans got a vintage year from Andre Johnson in 2012, as he caught 112 passes for 1598 yards and 4 touchdowns, leading the NFL in yards per route run with 3.01 and ranking 2nd in the NFL in yards overall behind Calvin Johnson (who played over 200 more pass snaps). Those yards were actually a career high and those catches were 2nd in his career, pretty impressive considering he has 818 catches for 11,254 yards over 10 seasons. It was also unexpected considering he was 31 years old and coming off a season in which he played in just 7 games with injury. However, Johnson has still missed 12 games in the last 3 seasons and is going into his age 32 season. The concerns about him before last season had merit. They just didn’t prove to be an issue, but they could be this season. He’s also never had double digit touchdowns and scored just 4 times last season.

Projection: 91 catches for 1300 receiving yards 7 total touchdowns (172 pts standard, 263 pts PPR)

WR DeAndre Hopkins (Houston)

Hopkins has a bright future, but he’s just a rookie. Since 2005, 28 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 40 catches for 557 yards and 3 touchdowns per season as rookies. He’s not a serious threat to eat much into Johnson’s targets or production. He’ll surpass the 41 catches for 518 yards and 2 touchdowns that Kevin Walter had last year though.

Projection: 50 catches for 650 receiving yards 5 total touchdowns (95 pts standard, 145 pts PPR)

TE Owen Daniels (Houston)

Owen Daniels is a very good pass catching tight end when he’s on the field and he’s only missed 2 games of the past 2 seasons, after missing 13 in the previous 2. In a weaker year for tight ends, he’s offers good value. He should be around the 62 catches for 716 yards and 5 touchdowns he had last season.

Projection: 65 catches for 740 receiving yards 5 total touchdowns (104 pts standard, 169 pts PPR)

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Indianapolis Colts 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

July 30, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Colts, Uncategorized

QB Andrew Luck (Indianapolis)

Andrew Luck is an overrated quarterback in real life, but he was great in fantasy football last season and he should be better in both reality and fantasy next season. Pep Hamilton is coming over from Stanford to reunite with Luck as his offensive coordinator and will be installing an offense that fits his skill set better. He’ll also be better protected and another year more experienced. The Colts should still throw about 600 times, even with the team using more two-tight end sets, because both of their tight ends are comfortable pass catching, and Luck should be more efficient on those 600 throws. He also adds added value on the ground

Projection: 4350 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 270 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns (291 pts standard, 343 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Ahmad Bradshaw (Indianapolis)

8/16/13: Chuck Pagano called Bradshaw an every down back. He’ll be their lead back, with Ballard serving as a backup. The only concern is injuries.

Bradshaw was cut by the Giants this off-season going into just his age 27 season because they grew tired of his laundry list of injury problems. It took him a while to get picked up this off-season, but he’s one of the toughest running backs in the NFL, missing just 7 games in 4 years despite all the injury problems.He’s rushed for 3687 yards and 30 touchdowns on 831 carries in those 4 seasons, a 4.4 yards per carry clip, and he’s added 125 catches for 1033 yards and 2 touchdowns in the air. He’s also averaged 15.9 carries per game over the past 3 years as a starter, so being able to work in tandem with another back will help him.

Projection: 220 carries for 920 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 35 catches for 280 receiving yards (168 pts standard, 203 pts PPR)

RB Vick Ballard (Indianapolis)

8/16/13: Chuck Pagano called Bradshaw an every down back. He’ll be their lead back, with Ballard serving as a backup. Ballard is still a valuable handcuff because of injuries, but he’s moving down.

Ballard took over the starting job from Donald Brown week 5 and averaged 15.8 carries a game from that point on, rushing for 814 yards and 2 touchdowns on 211 carries with 17 catches for 152 yards and a touchdown. He averaged just 3.9 yards per carry, but you can blame his offensive line for that somewhat (he averaged a decent 2.5 yards per carry after contact) and he’s the type of back who would be better in tandem with another back. That’s where Ahmad Bradshaw comes in. He’ll probably lead the team in carries, but both backs will carry the ball and Bradshaw will work on 3rd downs. Ballard will get short yardage and goal line looks, though Andrew Luck scored 5 of the team’s 11 rushing touchdowns last year.

Projection: 110 carries for 480 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 15 catches for 120 receiving yards (84 pts standard, 99 pts PPR)

WR Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis)

Wayne turns 35 this November. Over the next 2-4 years, Wayne can be expected to go from top flight receiver to complementary player to gone. That’s just what happens to receivers around this age. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Wayne already showed some signs of slowing down in the 2nd half of last season, catching “just” 45 passes for 520 yards and 2 touchdowns. He could have another big year, but let him be someone else’s problem.

Projection: 75 catches for 1020 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (138 pts standard, 213 pts PPR)

WR TY Hilton (Indianapolis)

8/26/13: It doesn’t look like TY Hilton is going to beat out veteran Darrius Heyward-Bey for a starting job. Hilton had 26 catches for 506 yards and 5 touchdowns in his final 8 games last season, despite making just 1 start, but the Colts are planning on using more two-tight end sets and fewer three-wide receiver sets this season with Bruce Arians gone and Pep Hamilton coming in. They also won’t emphasis the deep passing game as much as they did last season, when Luck led the NFL in pass attempts 20+ yards downfield through the air, which is where Hilton wins as a route runner. He could still beat out DHB at some point this season and I think he’d be a better pick for the starting job, but he’s being overdrafted at his current ADP in the 6^th round.

Since 2005, 28 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 40 catches for 557 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. I don’t have the numbers for the descending rounds, but they are almost definitely lower. And Hilton, a 3rd round rookie, greatly exceeded these first round numbers, catching 50 passes for 861 yards and 7 touchdowns. In his 2nd year in the league, he should improve on those numbers. Donnie Avery is gone so Hilton is expected to be a starter and Reggie Wayne is aging. In his final 8 games of last season, he caught 26 passes for 506 yards and 5 touchdowns in his final 8 games, almost more yardage than Reggie Wayne. He’s a dark horse to lead this team in receiving.

Projection: 58 catches for 940 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns (130 pts standard, 188 pts PPR)

WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (Indianapolis)

8/26/13: I don’t know why, but Darrius Heyward-Bey seems to have beaten out TY Hilton for the starting job. He’s not that great, but the Colts passing offense could make him fantasy relevant. Donnie Avery was incredibly inefficient last season, yet he still managed 60 catches for 781 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s worth a look as a depth receiver.

Projection: 57 catches for 850 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns (115 pts standard, 172 pts standard)

TE Dwayne Allen (Indianapolis)

Allen is not just a great blocker, but he also had 45 catches for 521 yards and 3 touchdowns on 368 routes run (1.41 yards per route run). Going into his 2nd year in the league in an offense that focuses more on the tight ends, he should exceed those numbers, though the Colts’ two tight ends will probably keep each other from being fantasy relevant.

Projection: 50 catches for 620 receiving yards 4 touchdowns (86 pts standard, 136 pts PPR)

TE Coby Fleener (Indianapolis)

He was pretty mediocre as a rookie and disappointed as a pass catcher, catching just 26 passes for 281 yards and 2 touchdowns on 252 routes run (1.12 yards per route run). Still, he’s a natural pass catcher who should have an improved 2nd season in the league. Having his old offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton should help. However, again, the two tight ends will probably keep each other from being fantasy relevant.

Projection: 44 catches for 600 receiving yards 4 touchdowns (84 pts standard, 128 pts PPR)

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Year: 2013

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