Tennessee Titans 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

July 30, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Titans, Uncategorized

QB Jake Locker (Tennessee)

Locker still has upside and he’s not proven either way with just 11 starts under his belt, but I didn’t think he’d become a franchise quarterback coming out of Washington and the Titans have not seemed confident in him this off-season, saying that a “major goal” is preventing Locker from “feeling overwhelmed.” The Titans have added Ryan Fitzpatrick, a proven backup caliber talent, behind him this off-season, to replace Hasselbeck and he could see multiple starts, especially if Locker gets hurt again. Even if he does play all 16 games, he’s an inconsistent QB2 at best, though his rushing ability does give you added value.

Projection: 3500 passing yards 19 touchdowns 16 interceptions 400 rushing yards 2 rushing touchdowns (236 pts standard, 274 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Chris Johnson (Tennessee)

An improved offensive line has to be music to Chris Johnson’s ears because of how reliant on a good offensive line he is. He’s incredibly explosive through holes, but when there aren’t holes, he doesn’t do a lot to help himself, frequently dancing around in the backfield, and getting little after contact. It’s why he has such good games against bad run defenses and bad games against good run defenses. He’s as good as anyone in the NFL when the hole is there though so he could have a very good season. He could see fewer carries, but only slightly with Shonn Greene coming in. Unless he steals a bunch of touchdowns, he won’t hurt Johnson’s production too much. Johnson is also active in the passing game, catching 230 passes in 5 years and he’s missed just 1 game in his career.

Projection: 250 carries for 1200 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 44 catches for 340 receiving yards (196 pts standard, 240 pts PPR)

RB Shonn Greene (Tennessee)

Greene will serve as primarily a backup and change of pace short yardage back. He is a marginal runner with minimal explosiveness, but he does fit his new role well, even if it was an overpay to give him 10 million over 3 years to serve in that role. He’ll get the goal line carries, but there won’t be a lot of those in Tennessee’s offense. He’ll need an injury to Chris Johnson to be fantasy relevant and should only be considered a handcuff. Johnson has missed just 1 game in his career.

Projection: 110 carries for 460 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 13 catches for 80 receiving yards (84 pts standard, 97 pts PPR)

WR Kenny Britt (Tennessee)

8/27/13: I liked Kenny Britt as a sleeper because he was getting through the off-season without any off the field incidents or any injury problems. However, he’s going to miss the Titans’ final pre-season game with recurring knee problems and has reportedly had problems with swelling for a while. He might just never get healthy enough to make good on his talent. He’s still a nice sleeper, but he’s only a WR4 or WR5.

Before tearing his ACL early in the 2011 season, Britt caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns over his last 14 full games, despite inconsistent, at best, quarterback play. He struggled in 2012 with injury and off the field problems, catching just 45 passes for 589 yards and 4 touchdowns, but now he’s a year removed any off the field incidents and another year removed from that torn ACL. He’s had a great off-season and he’s still a former 1^st round pick going into his age 25 season. There’s upside with him at his current ADP in the 8^th or 9^th round.

Projection: 55 catches for 880 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns (124 pts standard, 179 pts PPR)

WR Kendall Wright (Tennessee)

Wright caught 64 passes for 626 yards and 4 touchdowns as a 1st round rookie last year, which is above the average for a 1st round rookie. He should be better this year now that he’s not a rookie, but it might take until his 3rd year for him to truly breakout. He’ll battle with Kenny Britt and Nate Washington for playing time in an uncertain wide receiver trio and I think he’s the 2nd most talented player in that group. There’s upside with him, but he could end up being just a secondary receiver in a subpar passing offense.

Projection: 55 catches for 740 receiving yards 4 touchdowns (98 pts standard, 153 pts PPR)

WR Nate Washington (Tennessee)

8/27/13: With Kenny Britt remaining an injury risk, Nate Washington gets a stock up. He’s been Jake Locker’s preferred target this pre-season, as he was last season, but there’s not a lot of upside with him. He’s not the talent Britt can be when healthy and he’s unlikely to exceed last year’s 46/746/4 line by much in this receiving corps with the Titans’ quarterback situation.

Projection: 51 catches for 770 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns (107 pts standard, 158 pts PPR)

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Tennessee Titans 2013 NFL Season Preview

July 30, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Titans, Uncategorized

Introduction

I made some incorrect predictions last season, as anyone would, but the one I am most embarrassed about is that I thought the Titans would make the playoffs. I thought Jake Locker would continue to be the improvement over Matt Hasselbeck he was in limited action as a rookie, that Kenny Britt would be the player he looked on his way to becoming before his torn ACL to give them a very underrated and talented receiving corps, and that Chris Johnson would continue the strong 2^nd half of his 2011 season into 2012. I thought Locker and Britt had some Matt Stafford/Calvin Johnson lite potential and that the Titans’ offense had the potential to be like the 2011 Lions’ lite. Defensively, I saw a unit that was 8^th in the NFL, allowing 19.8 points per game the previous season despite being one of the youngest units in the NFL.

Instead, their defense allowed the most points in the NFL, allowing 29.4 points per game. Their offense improved slightly, but not much, scoring just 20.6 points per game, nowhere near enough to keep up with all the points their defense was allowing. They won 6 games, but they weren’t even as good as that would suggest, as they ranked tied for 4^th worst in the NFL with a Pythagorean Expectation of 4.8 wins, getting outscored by 141 points on the season. That was despite an easy schedule and they ranked 30^th in DVOA. And it’s not even that they had an unsustainably poor turnover margin or bad luck recovering fumbles. They got outgained by close to 1000 yards on the season. They were one of the worst teams in the NFL anyway you look at it.

What happened? Well Jake Locker missed 5 games with injury and struggled when he was on the field, displaying accuracy issues that date back to his collegiate days, completing just 56.4% of his passes for an average of 6.9 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Matt Hasselbeck played in relief of him, but very much looked his age, completing 62.4% of his passes for an average of 6.2 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions.

Kenny Britt struggled to bounce back from his torn ACL, missed 2 games with suspension and injury, and poor play by his quarterback didn’t help. Chris Johnson bounced back from his poor 2011 somewhat, upping his yards per carry from 4.0 to 4.5, but he wasn’t quite the player I was expecting him to be. His overall numbers were pretty impressive, but not quite as good as they were in the 2^nd half of 2011, when he averaged 4.8 yards per carry and he was way too inconsistent. While he had 5 games of 120+ yards, he also had 5 games of fewer than 30 yards and overall spent too much time dancing.

Defensively, their struggles were more perplexing as they allowed close to 10 points more per game, despite only two players really playing significantly worse than I expected, middle linebacker Colin McCarthy and safety Michael Griffin. Derrick Morgan had a breakout year on the defensive line, opposite free agent Kamerion Wimbley and the team actually graded out just below average on ProFootballFocus, better than they had the previous season.

McCarthy issues were caused by an ankle injury and a concussion that limited him to 7 games and hampered him when he did play, while Griffin is a notoriously up year/down year type player that should be up this year if history holds. That doesn’t seem like it would be enough to reverse all of this defense’s problems though, and while they did allow fewer than 20 points per game in 2011, they ranked 18^th in the NFL in yards allowed. In fact, they really only allowed about 300 more yards last season than the year before so it seems like I just overrated them to begin with. In actuality, they are probably somewhere in between the 19.8 points per game they allowed in 2011 and 29.4 points per game they allowed in 2012, but they could be closer to 2011 than 2012 if things go right.

Offensively, it’s very possible that Kenny Britt could have a much better season this year, in a contract year, coming another year removed from the torn ACL and any off the field incidents. Chris Johnson should be helped by an improved offensive line that adds Andy Levitre and Chance Warmack at guard and turns what was once a position of serious weakness at guard into a position of serious strength. The biggest concern remains Jake Locker and whether or not he’ll ever be accurate enough to be a successful NFL quarterback.

Quarterback

Locker still has upside and he’s not proven either way with just 11 starts under his belt, but I didn’t think he’d become a franchise quarterback coming out of Washington and the Titans have not seemed confident in him this off-season, saying that a “major goal” is preventing Locker from “feeling overwhelmed.” The Titans have added Ryan Fitzpatrick, a proven backup caliber talent, behind him this off-season, to replace Hasselbeck and he could see multiple starts, especially if Locker gets hurt again. Their quarterback play could ultimately be what holds this team back, even if the rest of the team plays well, as could happen.

Grade: C

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Locker could be helped by a finally 100% Kenny Britt. In 2010, Kenny Britt, then a 2nd year receiver out of Rutgers and a former 1st round pick, caught 42 passes for 775 yards and 9 touchdowns. Those were impressive numbers for a 2nd year receiver, but even more impressive is that he did that in just 12 games and that he was just scratching the surface of his potential. Those numbers extrapolate to 56 catches for 1033 yards and 12 touchdowns over 16 games. Heading into his 3rd year in the league, frequently a breakout year for receiver, the 6-3 218 receiver with 4.56 speed looked poised for a breakout year in 2011, what was only his age 23 season.

Britt looked to be on his way to that breakout year early, but he tore his ACL midway through week 3 and finished the year with 17 catches for 289 yards and 3 touchdowns, impressive stats for 2 ½ games, but hardly what was expected of him. The following off-season, he got arrested again, bringing his career arrest total to 8, which earned him a one game suspension. He also had knee surgeries on both knees and was overall unprepared for the 2012 season. Despite his #1 receiver talent, he played the 3rd most pass snaps among wide receivers on the team, playing just 413 of 644 possible pass snaps. He did not play well when he did play, catching just 45 passes for 589 yards and 4 touchdowns, despite a career high 90 targets.

Now Britt is at a crossroads in his career, heading into the final year of his rookie contract. The writing is on the wall after the team used a 1st round pick on Kendall Wright, a receiver from Baylor, in 2012, and a 2ndround pick on Justin Hunter, a receiver from Tennessee, in 2013. However, he remains a starter and the #1 receiver job is his if he wants it. Britt is a more talented and experienced receiver than both of the young receivers and he’s more talented than Nate Washington as well. He has all the talent and he doesn’t even turn 25 until September. So far, he hasn’t gotten hurt or arrested this off-season and reports about him have all been positive, that he finally has things together.

If that continues, he’ll be over a year removed from any arrests or surgeries when week 1 comes around. If he puts everything together and plays all or most of his team’s games, he’s fully capable of having a thousand yard season or more. Quarterback play is a concern, but Britt has posted big time per game receiving numbers in the past with Matt Hasselbeck, Kerry Collins, and Rusty Smith throwing him the football. Britt’s skill set fits well with Locker’s desire to throw downfield.

It seems like I’ve been predicting a breakout year for Britt for each of the past 3 off-seasons, but if he keeps up this off-season, he may finally have one. Or this season could go the opposite way for him. He could get passed on the depth chart by one or both young receivers and work only as a 3^rd or 4^th receiver and not be welcomed back as a free agent this off-season. This season is as make or break as it gets for a former 1st round pick and it’ll all be on him how it turns out. For the time being, it looks promising and I’m leaning towards breakout.

Britt will play with Nate Washington and Kendall Wright in 3-wide receiver sets, with Washington playing his natural slot role, but other than that, it’s unclear how playing time will be divided between the trio. Britt seems like the favorite to be their top receiver, but it’s not set in stone. Wright caught 64 passes for 626 yards and 4 touchdowns as a 1^st round rookie last year, which is above the average for a 1^st round rookie. He should be better this year now that he’s not a rookie, but it might take until his 3^rd year for him to truly breakout.

Washington, meanwhile, is a slot specialist who has been pretty productive over the past few years, catching 46 passes for 746 yards and 4 touchdowns last year, but with so much young talent blossoming around him, the arrow is trending down, especially going into his age 30 season. Earlier this off-season, there was talk that Washington would be traded for a late round pick and cut if no deal was possible, but now it looks like they’re going to hold onto him. 2^nd round rookie Justin Hunter will be the 4^th receiver. He’s 6-4 with 4.4 wheels, but needs to work on his route running, his hands/concentration, and bulk up. Early reviews out of Training Camp have not been positive for him, so this could essentially be a redshirt year for him.

The Titans did lose pass catching tight end Jared Cook this off-season, opting not to bring him back after he fell to 2^nd on the depth chart behind blocking specialist Craig Stevens last season. He was an efficient pass catcher, but couldn’t block at all. To replace him, the Titans brought in Delanie Walker from San Francisco, undoubtedly a better blocker, but a very poor pass catcher. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd ranked run blocking tight end last year, being used frequently (more often than any other #2 tight end in the NFL behind Houston’s Garrett Graham), but he had just 21 catches to 9 drops and has never caught more than 29 passes in a season.

He offers very little after the catch and has averaged just 1.08 yards per route run over the past 4 seasons. He’s not really that dissimilar from Craig Stevens, who caught 23 passes for 275 yards and a touchdown last season on 212 pass snaps, 1.30 yards per route run, while run blocking well. Stevens is already on their roster and, unlike Walker, did not cost 17.5 million over 4 years. Stevens looks like he’ll be headed to fullback this season.

It’s very unclear who will take over Jared Cook’s old pass catching role, but the Titans do have high hopes for 2^nd year tight end Taylor Thompson. Thompson was a 5^th round pick out of SMU, where he played defensive lineman, but because of his athleticism (6-6 259 4.59) and his soft hands in individual workouts, the Titans converted the collegiate defensive end to tight end, despite the fact that he hadn’t played receiver of any kind since he was a wideout in high school. He showed well as a blocker as a rookie, but caught just 6 passes for 46 yards on 83 pass snaps with 2 drops. Most of Tennessee’s receiving production will come from wide receivers, but they have a talented bunch. They just might need a different quarterback to show that.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

Jake Locker should also be helped by what should be an improved offensive line. Going into last season, the interior of the Titans’ offensive line was a huge weakness, while their tackles remained a strength. A year later, the interior of their offensive line has been turned to a strength and their tackles remain sturdy. They might have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

What’s happened since the start of last season? Well, Fernando Velasco broke out in place of an injured Eugene Amano, who was one of the worst offensive linemen in the league prior to his injury. In his first year as a starter, Velasco graded out well above average as ProFootballFocus’ 11^th ranked center. He’s still a one year wonder so I’ll need to see the 2008 undrafted free agent do it again, but he should be considered an above average starter.

At left guard, the Titans signed Andy Levitre this off-season. Levitre got 46.8 million over 6 years from the Titans, which is a lot for a guard, but it’s still less than Carl Nicks, Logan Mankins, and Jahri Evans and Levitre is right there in that tier below them. He’s worth what they paid him and he fills a massive hole. The 2009 2^nd round pick has never missed a start and can play left tackle in a pinch. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 9^th ranked guard in 2012 and 6^th ranked in 2011. He’ll be an upgrade over the aged and since retired Steve Hutchinson at left guard.

Also filling a massive hole is rookie right guard Chance Warmack, the 10th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. Along with 7th overall pick Jonathan Cooper, that was the first time a true interior offensive lineman had been drafted above 15th overall in 15 years, but it wasn’t a bad move. They needed the guard help and it was a historically poor draft in terms of top level talent. Warmack is one of the best guard prospects in a long time and might have more Pro-Bowl potential than any player in the entire draft behind Cooper and maybe the top-two tackles Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel, even if he is just a guard.

Warmack will slot in immediately at his natural spot at right guard and it would not surprise me if he was a very good starter in his first year in the league. He’ll be a massive upgrade over the Deuce Lutui/LeRoy Harris duo that split time at the position last season. Levitre and Warmack should upgrade their run blocking that graded out 16^th in the NFL last season on ProFootballFocus and they’ll also help in pass protection, where they ranked 8^th last season, including 5^th in pass block efficiency. As I said, this could be one of the best offensive lines in the NFL this season.

Michael Roos and David Stewart remain on the outside. They’ve been starters since 2006 and both come from the 2005 draft class, Roos in the 2^nd round and Stewart in the 4^th round. It’s uncommon that you can find two offensive tackle starters in the same draft, let alone two that stay together as long as Roos and Stewart, are as dependable as Roos and Stewart, and play as well as Roos and Stewart. Both have graded out above average in each of the last 5 seasons. Last season, Roos was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked offensive tackle, while Stewart ranked 28^th. In 2011, Roos was 11^th and Stewart was 3^rd. There was some concern about Stewart’s slow recovery from a broken leg earlier this off-season, but he seems fine. The only minor concern is both are heading into their age 31 season. Still, it’s an offensive line with no holes.

Grade: A

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Running Backs

In his rookie season, he rushed for 4.9 yards per carry on 251 carries, managing 3.1 yards per carry after contact and running behind an offensive line that ranked 11^th in run blocking, grading out significantly above average. In 2009, he rushed for 5.6 yards per carry on 358 carries, managing 3.0 yards per carry after contact and running behind an offensive line that ranked 12^th in run blocking, grading out well above average.

In 2010, he rushed for 4.3 yards per carry on 316 carries, managing 2.8 yards per carry after contact behind an offensive line that ranked dead last in run blocking, grading out significantly below average. In 2011, he rushed for 4.0 yards per carry on 262 carries, managing 2.1 yards per carry after contact behind an offensive line that ranked 18^th in run blocking, grading out below average. Last year, he rushed for 4.5 yards per carry on 276 carries, managing 2.0 yards per carry after contact behind an offensive line that ranked 16^th in the NFL in run blocking, grading out slightly above average.

He’s done more dancing as his career has gone on and managed fewer yards after contact, but still has explosive ability to run through holes. This could be a top-5 run blocking offensive line this season, especially with their blocking tight ends and fullbacks factored in, so we could see Johnson average in the high 4s per carry even if he continues to average in the low 2s per carry after contact. It’s definitely a good situation for him.

He could see fewer carries, but only slightly with Shonn Greene coming in. Greene will serve as primarily a backup and change of pace short yardage back. He is a marginal runner with minimal explosiveness, but he does fit his new role well, even if it was an overpay to give him 10 million over 3 years to serve in that role. Unless he steals a bunch of touchdowns, he won’t hurt Johnson’s production too much. Johnson is also active in the passing game, catching 230 passes in 5 years and he’s missed just 1 game in his career. The running game will help move this offense, but Jake Locker under center could hurt their ability to go too much over the 20 points per game or so they’ve been averaging over the past 2 seasons.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

While I don’t expect them to be significantly improved offensively, they’ll probably be significantly improved defensively, though it’s unclear how much. The talent is there though. On the defensive line, the Titans will be using a system similar to what Seattle and now Jacksonville use, as the NFL is a copycat league and this type of thing is catching on. Derrick Morgan will remain as an every down end in the Chris Clemons role. The 2010 1^st round pick at one point looked like a bust, but he turned in a very good 2012 season.

Morgan had 9 sacks, 21 hits, and 42 hurries on 530 pass rush snaps, a 13.6% pass rush rate. He ranked tied for 5^th at his position in pass rush productivity and ranked 6^th at his position in pass rush grade. He also played the run well and overall graded out 4^th among 4-3 defensive ends. While this was the first time he had ever played this well in the NFL, he was a 1^st round pick in 2010 and a player who I thought was the top pass rusher in that draft class. He struggled with injuries through his first 2 years in the league, which is his excuse, but now that he’s healthy, I don’t see why he can’t, once again, have a strong season as an every down end.

Opposite him, Kamerion Wimbley will not remain an every down end, moving out of the starting lineup and into that Bruce Irvin type nickel rusher role. In the first season of his career playing 4-3 end (he’s played 3-4 rush linebacker and 4-3 hybrid end/linebacker), Wimbley continued to rush the passer well, with 7 sacks, 4 hits, and 47 hurries on 546 pass rush snaps, a 10.6% pass rush rate. He graded out above average as a pass rusher, but his awful play against the run (2^nd worst at his position) sunk his grade to below average overall. He’s undersized at 6-4 245, which is why last year was his first as an every down end and it looks like it will be his last, at least for the time being. The role change should be good for him.

Playing in base packages at that spot will be Ropati Pitoitua, who will be playing the Red Bryant role. Pitoitua is a 6-8 290 career backup who has played 5-technique defensive end in a 3-4 throughout his career with the Jets and Chiefs since going undrafted in 2008. He’ll play the run well at that size, but he won’t get any pass rush and I don’t think he’ll have the same impact that Bryant has had in Seattle. He’s just not the same type of player.

At defensive tackle, the Titans will use a trio of players. Jurrell Casey and Mike Martin return and will largely play the same role. 3^rd round picks in the 2011 and 2012 draft respectively, both played very well last season, Casey ranking 7^th at his position on 789 snaps, excelling as a run stopper (2^nd at his position) and Martin ranking 10^th at his position on 435 snaps, excelling as a pass rusher (10^th at his position.

The only difference is that Sammie Lee Hill comes in and will take the departed Sen’Derrick Marks’ old role, which played 691 snaps last season. Marks was awful. Last season was actually his best season in 3 years as a key contributor, ranking 73^rd out of 85 eligible. He was a bottom-10 player in 2010 and 2011. Sammie Lee Hill was buried on the depth chart in Detroit behind Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley, but the 4^th round pick 2009 was one of the best reserve defensive tackles in the NFL over the past 3 years, grading out above average in all 3 years and topping out at 19^th at his position on just 367 snaps in 2010.

He more than deserves this chance at a starting job and will give the Titans a 3^rd talented defensive tackle for their trio. They also have Karl Klug, a good situational pass rusher, as the 4^th defensive tackle. He’ll probably play around the 256 snaps he did last year. On top of that, linebacker Akeem Ayers also plays defensive end from time to time as a situational pass rusher and does a very good job. Overall, it’s a very underrated defensive line with lots of talented players who fit roles and rotate. They were among the best in the NFL with 44 sacks last season and could be similarly good this season.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

Despite good defensive line play, the Titans did only rank 15^th in the NFL, allowing 4.2 yards per carry. That has more to do with their back 7 play. As I mentioned, Colin McCarthy struggled mightily last season in the 7 games he did play. Struggling mightily through ankle and concussion problems, he was ProFootballFocus’ 49^th ranked middle linebacker out of 53 eligible on just 388 snaps, especially struggling against the run.

In his absence, Will Witherspoon and Tim Shaw had to see more action. Shaw wasn’t awful on 230 snaps, but Witherspoon looked completely done, struggling mightily both inside and outside on 393 snaps in his age 32 season, especially struggling against the run. McCarthy was better in a half season starting in 2011 as a 4^th round rookie and showed promise for the future. If he can put his injuries behind him, he could be a decent starter, though he’ll have to hold off career backup Moise Fukou for the job. Fukou might just be limited to be a pass coverage job, which is the journeyman’s specialty.

On the outside, the Titans have a pair of recent 2^nd round picks, Zach Brown from the 2012 draft and Akeem Ayers from the 2011 draft. Brown played well as a rookie and showed himself to be worthy of an every down job in 2012. He was one of my top linebacker prospects of the 2012 draft class and I thought he was a steal in the 2^nd round for his coverage ability, blitz ability, and sideline to sideline ability. He might take a leap forward in his 2^nd year in the league.

Ayers, meanwhile, is a solid two-down run stuffer who doesn’t cover well, but makes up for it by rushing the passer well. On 133 pass rush snaps last season, he had 7 sacks, 4 hits, and 10 hurries and he could see a bigger role as a nickel rusher in sub packages when he’s not playing linebacker this season. He’s the linebacker who comes off the field (or at least out of the linebacking corps) for an extra defensive back in sub packages.

Grade: B-

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Secondary

Along with McCarthy, safety Michael Griffin was the other starter for the Titans last year who was awful. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 86^th ranked safety out of 88 eligible, only ahead of the two New Orleans safeties. He especially struggled in coverage allowing 17.1 yards per reception and 7 touchdowns thanks to a league leading 22 missed tackles. He’s been pretty much alternating good seasons and bad seasons, grading out 9^th in 2008, 2^nd worst in 2009, about average in 2010, and then 10^th in 2011 before last year, so he could be due for a bounce back.

However, it’s also possible he struggles again and that his best days are behind him now that’s he’s gotten a big contract, as the Titans gave him 35 million over 5 million after franchising him before last season. He’s had work ethic concerns in the past and might have just coasted once he got paid. Obviously a bounce back year, even to an average player, would be very important for the Titans. If he plays like he did last year though, it could be his final year with the Titans as cutting him would save about 800K on the cap and 6.2 million in real cash. Obviously cutting him 2 years into a 5 year deal, with 15 million guaranteed down the drain, would be a huge disappointment, but at that point, they might have to just cut their losses.

Opposite him, Jordan Babineaux was not much better, grading out below average and ranking 60^th out of 87 eligible safeties and getting benched down the stretch for Robert Johnson, who also didn’t play well. Babineaux has been cut and the Titans have brought in veterans Bernard Pollard and George Wilson. Pollard is the early heavy favorite for the job, but Wilson was the better player last season, grading out 8^th at his position. However, he was never really that good in the past and he’s heading into his age 32 season so the Titans seem content with him as the 3^rd safety behind Griffin and Pollard. We’ll see how quick they are to put him into the starting lineup if Griffin or even Pollard struggles.

Pollard is known best for being a Patriot killer, but he’s an inconsistent player who is going onto his 4th team since 2008 and has been cut/non-tendered 3 times. Pollard was once a promising young safety in Kansas City after being drafted in the 2nd round in 2006, but lasted just 3 years before being cut in training camp in 2009.

He then caught on in Houston in 2009, where he was so good the Texans tendered him at the highest possible level as a restricted free agent in the next offseason, but a year later, he was unwanted once more, as Houston non-tendered him. He was then forced to settle for just 2.7 million over 2 years from Baltimore. However, he played well enough in 2011 to get a 12.3 million dollar extension over 3 years. After a decent, but unspectacular first season of his new contract, he was cut by the cap scrapped Ravens and now heads to Tennessee for only his age 29 season.

At cornerback, the Titans have a pair of solid players in Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner. They ranked 6^th and 24^th respectively in 2012 and 8^th and 14^th respectively in 2011, though both times a lot of that was run grade. In coverage, they ranked 46^th and 23^rd respectively in 2011 and 39^th and 50^th respectively in 2012. Run play is important and both of them are consistently among the best run cornerbacks in the NFL, but coverage is what they’re out there for.

Last season, McCourty allowed 63 catches on 97 attempts for 800 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, deflecting 11 passes and committing 2 penalties, while Verner allowed 53 catches on 84 attempts for 556 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 7 passes and committing 1 penalty. They’ve lacked a good 3^rd cornerback ever since they lost Cortland Finnegan. There is a 3-way battle for that job this season, between Coty Sensabaugh, who struggled in that role as a 4^th round rookie last year, Blidi Wreh-Wilson, a 3^rd round rookie, and Tommie Campbell, a physical and much talked about 2011 7^th round pick who has played just 68 snaps in his career.

There’s also been some talk that Verner is falling out of favor with the coaching staff and doesn’t fit the new coverage scheme. He may be demoted to the 3^rd cornerback job if one of the aforementioned cornerbacks can establish himself. Verner has even gotten some looks at safety because of his run stopping ability, but that looks like just an experiment. At this point, I consider Verner the favorite to start. Overall, it should be an improved defense over last year’s last place finish, even if only because it’s way more talented than that.

Grade: B-

Head Coach

Mike Munchak won 9 games in his 1^st season with the Titans in 2011, the first time anyone other than Jeff Fisher had been their Head Coach since 1994. However, after last year’s disappointing performance, there were calls for his job, especially after Owner Bud Adams blew up at the team mid-season and said that something needed to change. I thought those talks were premature, but another rough season and he could be on the hot seat, especially since Bud Adams turns 91 in January. He fired already top executive Mike Reinfeldt, promoting GM Ruston Webster.

Grade: C+

Overall

The Titans look like another team that will play better this year, but not really have it show up in the standings. They were one of the worst teams in the league last year, maybe outside of Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Oakland and while they’ll be better, they’ll probably still allow significantly more points than they score. They have upside and talent, but I think Jake Locker’s deficiencies at quarterback will hold them back.

They’re not better than Houston or Indianapolis and will be lucky to win more than 1 of those games, though they’ll probably sweep Jacksonville, giving them 2 or 3 divisional wins. Outside of the division, they host San Diego, the Jets, Kansas City, San Francisco, and Arizona. San Francisco will be very tough, but they could split the other 4, which puts them at 4 or 5 wins at this point. However, they have to go to Pittsburgh, Seattle, Denver, St. Louis, and Oakland. Oakland is the only likely win there, though St. Louis is winnable. I have them at 5-11.

Projection: 5-11 3^rd in AFC South

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Indianapolis Colts 2013 NFL Season Preview

July 30, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Colts, Uncategorized

Introduction

The Colts made the 2^nd biggest single season win improvement in NFL history, going from 2-14 to 11-5 last season. However, like the team who made the biggest single season win improvement in NFL history (the 2008 Miami Dolphins who went from 1-15 to 11-5 back down to 7-9 the following season), I expect the Colts to be significantly worse in 2013. In fact, teams with big win improvements generally regress about half the following season (and vice versa). There are two things about the Colts’ 2012 season that are unsustainable and that show they are an overrated team.

For one, they had a ridiculous record in games decided by a touchdown or less, going 9-1 in those types of games. In fact, they had just 2 wins by a touchdown or more, and one came against the 2-win Jaguars. Meanwhile, 3 of their 5 losses came by more than 20 points and only one of those teams made the playoffs. They lost 35-9 to the Jets! Overall, they were -30 on the season and had a Pythagorean Expectation of 7.2 wins. They made the playoffs because they were ridiculously good at pulling out close wins. Call it #ChuckStrong magic if you want, it’s not going to happen again this year. That type of stuff evens out in the long run.

All of those close wins would be more impressive if they weren’t against teams like Cleveland, Tennessee, Kansas City, and Buffalo. They had an incredibly easy schedule, playing just 6 games against teams that went 8-8 or better. While they went 3-3 in those 6 games, the wins were by 3, 3, and 12, while the losses were by 20, 35, and 12. Their season essentially consisted of them barely beating bad teams and getting blown out by good teams. They had just 1 win by more than a field goal against a team better than 6-10 and it was a week 17 game against the Texans. Once they got to the playoffs, they were just overmatched by the Baltimore Ravens, who beat them 24-9.

When you combine their ridiculous record in close games and their weak schedule, the advanced metrics do not like them. They ranked 25^th in DVOA and had the lowest DVOA by an 11-win team in DVOA’s 22 year history, dating back to 1991. They had poor injury luck, ranking 29^th in the league in adjusted games lost, but they weren’t really missing anyone who was a big time impact player, with the exception of maybe Vontae Davis. If they want to win 11 games this season or come close, they’ll have to play significantly better.

Fortunately for them, they had a good deal of cap room going into this off-season so they had a good chance to improve their roster. However, they completely bungled free agency, shelling out 3 years, 15 million for the oft injured Greg Toler, 4 years, 16 million the awful Erik Walden, 4 years, 24 million for the seen better days LaRon Landry, 4 years, 22 million for career backup Ricky Jean-Francois, and 5 years, 34.5 million for one year wonder Gosder Cherilus. Only a 4 year, 14 million dollar deal for promising career backup Donald Thomas represented a good deal among their 6 multiyear signings, while Ahmad Bradshaw and Darrius Heyward-Bey were added to the mix on reasonable one year contracts. I don’t know how much better the Colts really made their roster this off-season. It’s better, but not worth what they spent.

While the Colts had a very good off-season last year, drafting incredibly well, one off-season is not enough to rebuild this team into a permanent winner. While the Bill Polian era started out incredibly well, with Peyton Manning, Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Jeff Saturday, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, and Bob Sanders, all drafted by the Colts, among the best at their respective positions at one point or another with the Colts, the Polian-led front office failed to draft a future Pro-Bowler in any draft from 2006-2011. Their roster was completely barren when new GM Ryan Grigson took over. Peyton Manning’s injury exposed that in 2011, as they won just 2 games. While it’s better, it’s not where they appeared to be last season. This year, I expect them to play better, but have a significantly worse record.

Quarterbacks

Speaking of playing better but having a worse record, it’s Andrew Luck. Luck got a lot of credit for the Colts huge turnaround last season, but we’ve already established they weren’t as good as they seemed. Luck wasn’t either. Luck completed just 54.1% of his passes for an average of 7.0 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions, good for a QB rating of 76.5, 26^th in the league among eligible quarterbacks, one spot behind Blaine Gabbert. He led the Colts’ offense to just 22.3 points per game, tied for 18^th in the NFL.

ProFootballFocus didn’t like him too much either, grading him 24^th among all quarterbacks throwing the ball on tape, right behind Jake Locker, though he saved his grade somewhat with his running ability (255 yards and 5 touchdowns on 61 carries). He also ranked just 25^th in adjusted QB rating, which takes into account drops, yards after catch, throw aways, hit as throwns, and spikes.

You can say his 9-1 record in close games and league leading 7 game winning drives were impressive and make up for the raw statistics, but consider the level of competition he was doing it against. Is a game winning drive against Kansas City or Tennessee really that impressive? It’s not like his 4^th quarter numbers were really that much better, as he completed 53.4% of his passes for an average of 7.2 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. His 4^th quarter QB rating of 75.3 was actually worse than his overall QB rating. He’s not nearly in the neighborhood of Robert Griffin or Russell Wilson.

That being said, there are 3 reasons why Luck will play better this season. The first is that he’s just too talented. Rookie struggles hardly doom a career, especially for a talent like Luck. Peyton Manning had an even lower rookie QB rating, at 71.2, with 56.7% completion, 6.5 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 28 interceptions, but he bounced back with a 90.7 QB rating in the following season, completing 62.1% of his passes for 7.8 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. Luck might not be that good next season and he certainly might not have quite the same career Manning has had, but you can’t place too much value on his rookie year.

The second reason is he’ll fit the offensive scheme better. Bruce Arians is a great offensive coordinator and did a phenomenal job keeping this team together as Interim Head Coach after Chuck Pagano’s diagnosis. However, Luck was always a weird fit for his offense because his arm strength isn’t his best attribute and he very rarely played with 3-wide receivers in college. He was not meant to lead the league with 101 throws 20+ yards downfield or more, like he did last season. This season he gets back Pep Hamilton, his old offensive coordinator at Stanford, and he’ll install a more two-tight end, short to intermediate throw heavy offense that Luck will suit much better.

The 3^rd is that he’ll be better protected. They may have not have allowed a ton of sacks last season, but that’s because Luck’s incredible pocket presence made them look better than they were as he took a sack on just 14.9% of pressured drop backs, 7^th best in the NFL. When hits and hurries are taken into account, they ranked dead last in pass block efficiency and Luck was pressured in 38.1% of his drop backs, 5^th most in the NFL. He completed just 39.9% of throws under pressure, 5^th worst in the NFL. Gosder Cherilus might have been an overpay, but he and Donald Thomas will upgrade this offensive line. They won’t be great or anything, but they won’t be the worst again. I can definitely see Luck playing better, his team doing worse, and everyone asking what’s wrong with Andrew Luck.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

In addition to being dead last in pass block efficiency, the Colts also were ProFootballFocus’ 31^st ranked pass blocking team and 24^th ranked run blocking team. Only Arizona was also in the bottom-10 in both. Donald Thomas was the smart free agent signing on the offensive line. He’s a career backup, but he was ProFootballFocus’ 20^th ranked guard last season, despite making just 7 starts in place of injured guards with the Patriots. He also graded out above average in 13 starts in 2 seasons from 2008-2009 earlier in his career with the Steelers. He’s a projection as a full-time starter, but at just 14 million over 4 years, he’s worth the minor risk and the Colts very well may have found themselves an above average starting interior offensive linemen, a huge need of their off-season. He’s a better run blocker than pass protector.

Gosder Cherilus was the not so smart free agent signing on the offensive line. He was ProFootballFocus’ 8^th ranked offensive tackle last season, but he hadn’t done anything that good before. At 34.5 million over 5 years, the Colts are paying him hoping that he can keep up his elite 2012 performance and ignoring his only average to above average 2008-2011 performance. He was an older rookie too so the 2008 1^st round pick is already going into his age 29 season.

He’s also just a right tackle, which is a less important position for the Colts and he has a history of knee problems. He’s had microfracture surgery in the past and had to go to Germany for treatment. It was so concerning that the Lions didn’t seem to want anything to do with bringing him back as a free agent this off-season, even though he’s only missed 4 games in 5 seasons. The upside, best case scenario is that the Colts have an appropriately paid elite right tackle, but there’s also a good chance they’ve wound up with a lemon. He’ll probably be an upgrade at right tackle, though incumbent Winston Justice wasn’t bad. Justice is gone so it’s unclear who would fill in should Cherilus get hurt.

The only returning starter who graded out above average last season is left tackle Anthony Castonzo. Castonzo, a 2011 1^st round pick, improved on an average rookie season with an above average 2^nd season and even better is that he had some of his best performances in the 2^nd half of the season. He allowed just 3 sacks, 4 hits, and 11 hurries in the 2^nd half of the season, while committing just 2 penalties, as opposed to 6 sacks, 7 hits, and 24 hurries, while committing 3 penalties, in the first half of the season, all while run blocking well throughout. Going into his 3^rd year in the league, he could take another leap forward.

That’s where the good news ends for the Colts on the offensive line. Samson Satele graded out 4^th worst among eligible centers last season, despite being limited to 642 snaps by injuries and AQ Shipley, who played well in his absence last year, is gone, replaced by 4^th round rookie Khaled Holmes. Satele was better in 2011, but graded out below average in every season from 2008-2010, so he looks like one of the worst starting centers in the NFL.

Right guard Mike McGlynn was even worse, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ absolute worst guard last season by a good amount. He started 15 games there and was equally bad in his one game at center. He’s been pretty bad throughout his career and should not be expected to play much better this season. The Colts will have to hope that 3^rd round rookie Hugh Thornton can push for playing time at some point this season, but it’s unclear how much of an upgrade he can be as a rookie. Jeff Linkenbach and Joe Reitz are other options at guard and they’ll probably be their top two reserve offensive linemen, but both were awful last season as well. Right guard is one of the reasons why this remains a below average offensive line, though they’ll protect Luck better than they did last season.

Grade: C+

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

I mentioned earlier that the Colts drafted really well in 2012. It wasn’t just Andrew Luck. It would have been pretty hard to mess that one up. But they found good values in the later rounds. Nowhere is that more evident than in your young receiving corps, as they wisely made building the skill positions around Luck a priority of their first draft. Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen in the 2^nd and 3^rd round respectively give them two young tight ends and 3^rd rounder TY Hilton showed well as a rookie wide receiver. They also got a nice value with Lavon Brazill in the 6^th round, as he flashed as a rookie, though his roster spot is currently in jeopardy after a 4 game suspension for marijuana.

Fleener and Allen will be a big part of the Colts’ new two-tight end heavier offense. Allen was a later draft pick, but because he was an NFL ready blocker, he saw more snaps than Fleener, which should continue to be the case this season, with Allen playing in-line and Fleener functioning more as a move tight end. Allen showed very well as a rookie, blocking very well (both run and pass) and adding 45 catches for 521 yards and 3 touchdowns on 368 routes run (1.41 yards per route run).

Because of his all-around game, he was actually ProFootballFocus’ 2nd ranked tight end last season. He also played the 12th most snaps of any player at his position, so he had a really big role as a rookie, playing 925 snaps. It only got bigger as the season went on as he played at least 73% of his team’s snaps in every game from week 7 on, after doing so just once in his first 5 games. He also played some fullback from time to time.

Fleener played about half the snaps that Allen did, playing 461 snaps, but in his 2nd year in the league, in Pep Hamilton’s new offense, he should see that number increase. He was pretty mediocre as a rookie and disappointed as a pass catcher, catching just 26 passes for 281 yards and 2 touchdowns on 252 routes run (1.12 yards per route run). Still, he’s a natural pass catcher who should have an improved 2nd season in the league. Having his old offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton should help. Even with the Colts’ running more two-tight end sets, I still do expect them to pass often. Luck might not attempt 627 passes again, but he’s very comfortable throwing out of two-tight end sets and Allen and Fleener are both comfortable catching passes.

With the Colts playing fewer 3-wide receiver sets this season, TY Hilton will have to win the starting job opposite Reggie Wayne if he wants to have the breakout season he’s capable of. I predict he will. As a rookie in 2012, TY Hilton put up some pretty impressive stats for the Colts, catching 50 passes for 861 yards and 7 touchdowns. He did this on 88 targets and while his catch rate of 56.8% is not very impressive, he caught so many deep balls and had so many big plays that he managed a very impressive 9.8 YPA. He also had the 7th highest catch rate (10 of 20) on balls that traveled at least 20 yards in the air among receivers who caught at least 10 such passes. In terms of quarterback rating when thrown to, he ranked 21st, as Andrew Luck had a 102.5 QB rating when throwing to him, nearly 30 points higher than Luck’s overall QB rating.

In his 2nd year in 2013, I have reason to believe he’ll be even more productive. For starters, he’ll obviously be more experienced. He doesn’t turn 24 until November and the 2012 3rd round pick has hardly peaked. What he did as a rookie was not only above average for a rookie receiver, but significantly above average when compared to rookie receivers drafted in the 1st round.

Since 2005, 28 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 40 catches for 557 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. I don’t have the numbers for the descending rounds, but they are almost definitely lower. And Hilton, a 3rd round rookie, greatly exceeded these first round numbers. In his 2nd year in the league, he should improve on those numbers. One area that can be cleaned up is drops, as he dropped 10 passes last year. Just looking at his game 9-16 splits, you can see that Hilton became a better player as the season when on, catching 26 passes for 506 yards and 5 touchdowns in his final 8 games, 52 catches for 1012 yards and 10 touchdowns over 16 games.

The second reason I expect more production from him this year is that he’ll play more snaps. Last year, he worked as the 3rd receiver behind Reggie Wayne and Donnie Avery and only played 49 total snaps in his first 3 games. This year, Avery is gone and, while they’ve added Darrius Heyward-Bey, he figures to be a backup and depth receiver with Hilton serving as the #2 receiver. Avery played 687 pass snaps to Hilton’s 508. If Hilton had played, say, 650 pass snaps last year, extrapolation off his rookie numbers alone gets him to 64 catches for 1102 yards and 9 touchdowns.

The third reason is that he figures, in addition to playing more snaps, to become a bigger part of the offense and get more targets per pass snap. That goes hand and hand with being a year more experienced, but he also has an aging Reggie Wayne opposite him. Wayne also had a huge season catching 106 passes for 1355 yards and 5 touchdowns, but he also received 179 targets and had the 6th highest targets per routes run in the NFL (TY Hilton was a modest 27th among 45 qualifying receivers).

Wayne also turns 35 this November. Over the next 2-4 years, Wayne can be expected to go from top flight receiver to complementary player to gone. That’s just what happens to receivers around this age. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37.

Wayne already showed some signs of slowing down in the 2nd half of last season, catching “just” 45 passes for 520 yards and 2 touchdowns, meaning Hilton almost out produced him in the 2nd half of last year. Going into 2013, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Hilton were this team’s leading receiver and even if he isn’t, he should still have a 1000 yard breakout year and he looks like a Pro-Bowl sleeper, again, assuming he wins the starting job.

With Wayne aging, Andrew Luck’s receiving corps still appear to be in good hands for the future with Hilton having the profile of a future #1 receiver. He’s one of the fastest players in the NFL, flashing 4.34 speed at The Combine, and is developing the rest of his game. His size (5-10 183) could be the one thing that holds him back, but receivers such as Steve Smith (5-9 185), Antonio Brown (5-10 186) and DeSean Jackson (5-10 175) have all developed as #1 receivers in spite of their lack of size. Hilton has a similar skill set. There’s a reason he was one of my favorite sleeper prospects of the 2012 draft class. At the very least, he’ll serve as a downfield complement to aging possession receiver Reggie Wayne this year. Darrius Heyward-Bey, a marginal receiver, will provide depth and play on 3-wide receiver sets, moving Wayne to the slot.

Grade: A-

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Running Backs

In addition to all of the good skill position players they added in the receiving corps in the 2012 NFL Draft, they also found a good value with Vick Ballard at running back in the 5^th round. Ballard took over the starting job from Polian-era 1^st round bust Donald Brown week 5 and averaged 15.8 carries a game from that point on, rushing for 814 yards and 2 touchdowns on 211 carries with 17 catches for 152 yards and a touchdown. He averaged just 3.9 yards per carry, but you can blame his offensive line for that somewhat (he averaged a decent 2.5 yards per carry after contact) and he’s the type of back who would be better in tandem with another back.

That’s where Ahmad Bradshaw comes in. Bradshaw was cut by the Giants this off-season going into just his age 27 season because they grew tired of his laundry list of injury problems, after he had a 4^th foot surgery this off-season (to go with 2 career ankle surgeries). It took him a while to get picked up this off-season, settling for a 1-year deal with the Colts, but he’s one of the toughest running backs in the NFL, missing just 7 games in 4 years (the last 3 as a starter) despite all the injury problems.

He’s rushed for 3687 yards and 30 touchdowns on 831 carries in those 4 seasons, a 4.4 yards per carry clip, and he’s added 125 catches for 1033 yards and 2 touchdowns in the air. He’s also averaged 15.9 carries per game over the past 3 years as a starter, so being able to work in tandem with another back will help him. He’ll probably split early down work with Ballard and handle most of the passing down work, which is his strength at this point in his career.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

While the Colts averaged just 22.3 points per game last season, 18^th in the NFL, defense was the bigger issue. While they had young talent on offense, they had mostly replacement level talent on defense, a unit that ranked 21^st in the NFL, allowing 24.2 points per game. There wasn’t really a thing they were good at last season other than winning close games against bad teams. In effort to fix their defense, the Colts spent a lot of money this off-season, signing 4 players to multi-year contracts. They could be better as they’ll likely force more turnovers (more on that in a second), but I don’t know if they’re significantly more talented.

Onto turnovers, the Colts forced just 15 of them last season, as opposed to 27 turnovers offensively (not a huge number). Still, they were -12 in turnovers on the season. Fortunately, that type of thing tends to be very inconsistent on a year-to-year basis. For example, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers on average turn the ball over 25.5 times the following season, while teams that turn the ball over 35 or more times turn the ball over 28.1 times the following season. Teams with 20 or fewer takeaways take the ball away an average of 25.3 times the following season, while teams with 35 or more takeaways take the ball away an average of 27.3 times the following season. Teams with a turnover differential of +15 or higher have a turnover differential of +3.6 the following season, while teams with a turnover differential of -15 have a turnover differential of +1.5 the following season.

Turnovers and takeaways are incredibly hard to predict on year-to-year and even a game-to-game basis (teams with a turnover differential of +4 or higher and teams with a turnover differential of -4 or lower both average a turnover differential of +0.0 in the following game). I don’t know if they’ll cut down on their turnovers offensively (Luck’s development will help), because that’s not an unreasonable amount, but their defense should force at least 20 takeaways next season to get them to a more even turnover margin. So for that reason, they should be better defensively, but not by much. In terms of pure yardage, they were actually 26^th in the NFL, allowing 5988 yards (23^rd in YPA allowed and 31^st in YPC allowed) and their off-season additions won’t help much. A return to form for cornerback Vontae Davis could be their biggest potential boost.

On the defensive line, their big off-season addition was Ricky Jean-Francois, who got 22 million over 4 years coming over from San Francisco. It’s a lot of money for a former 7^th round pick who has played just 715 snaps in 4 seasons and hasn’t been all that remarkable on them. It wouldn’t be the first time a San Francisco player went from backup to above average starter with no indication in his past that a higher level was possible (Alex Boone, Ray McDonald, NaVorro Bowman, Dashon Goldson, Tarell Brown, etc), but all of those players did so with the 49ers. If Jim Harbaugh and Trent Baalke had felt Jean-Francois was capable of much bigger things, they probably would have shown more interest in trying to keep him around behind an aging Justin Smith, instead of signing Glenn Dorsey.

He could be an average starter (though he could be worse) and he’ll probably be an upgrade over the mess they had on the defensive line last season, but they’re paying him to be an above average starter and I don’t think they’ll get that. Opposite him, the Colts have Cory Redding, once an above average starter, but he struggled last season and going into his age 33 season, it’s very possible his best days are behind him.

In between them, Josh Chapman will probably start. The Alabama product fell to the 5^th round in the 2012 NFL Draft because of injuries, but he’s healthy and ready to start now so it looks like another smart draft move from the Colts. He didn’t play a snap as a rookie though, so it’s unclear what kind of player he’ll be. He’ll face competition for the job from off-season addition Aubrayo Franklin, who hasn’t been the same player in 2 seasons since leaving the 49ers. He’d be a marginal starter at best if he wins the job. They’ll probably get better play than what they got from Antonio Johnson last year. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 80^th ranked defensive tackle out of 85 eligible.

The Colts could also have Fili Moala, Ricardo Matthews, Drake Nevis, and Lawrence Guy in the mix depending on how the starters do. They used a lot of rotation on the defensive line last season, though a lot of that had to do with how little talent they had. I think the Colts would prefer not to have those guys play a bunch of snaps again because only Nevis and Guy graded out above average, doing so just barely and on 264 and 189 snaps respectively. It’s not as bad of a unit as it was last year, but not by much.

Grade: C

Linebackers

In their linebacking corps, the big addition was Erik Walden, who signed for 16 million over 4 years. He’s essentially been a starter for the past 2 seasons, playing opposite Clay Matthews in 2011 with the Packers, getting replaced in the starting lineup by 1^st round pick Nick Perry in 2012, but coming back into the lineup when Perry got hurt early in the year. He was absolutely awful in both seasons, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ worst rated 3-4 outside linebacker in both seasons. He especially struggled as a pass rusher last season, managing just 3 sacks, 9 hits, and 12 hurries on 390 pass rush snaps, a 6.2% pass rush rate.

He won’t start in Indianapolis, thankfully, because of the addition of Bjoern Warner in the first round of the draft, but he’ll still have a big role as the top reserve behind the rookie and aging veteran Robert Mathis. Werner is a very refined pass rusher for his age, but he doesn’t appear to have the natural athleticism to be a good fit to play rush linebacker in Indianapolis’ 3-4. We’ll see what he can do as a rookie.

Mathis, meanwhile, is an overrated player at this point in his career, making the Pro-Bowl last season. He did have 8 sacks, but he managed just 5 sacks and 16 hurries to go with those 8 sacks on 301 pass rush snaps, a 9.6% pass rush rate. He ranked just 16^th out of 32 eligible in pass rush productivity at his position and, while he graded out above average rushing the passer, he struggled mightily against the run and in coverage and graded out below average overall. He also was limited to just 642 snaps due to injury. He’s heading into his age 32 season and doesn’t seem to be a good fit for the Colts’ new 3-4, after playing in a 4-3 for his whole career. His best days are probably behind him.

Things are better at middle linebacker, but not by much. Jerrell Freeman took the starting job and ran with it in his first season over from the CFL. He was among the tops in the NFL in tackles, though a lot of that was just mopping up messes. Only 55 of his tackles were for a stop (sack or tackle within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage on 1^st down, 6 yards on 2^nd down, or the full distance on 3^rd or 4^th down) and overall he graded out as just about an average starter.

Freeman became the starter because Pat Angerer missed a lot of time with injury. When Angerer returned, he cut into the playing time of Kavell Conner, rather than Freeman. Angerer and Conner will compete for the starting job opposite Freeman this season. Conner struggled mightily in 2011 at outside linebacker, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 43^rd ranked middle linebacker out of 45 eligible 4-3 outside linebackers. The 2010 7^th round pick played much better inside in Indianapolis’ 3-4 in 2012 on 326 snaps. Angerer, meanwhile, has struggled mightily throughout his career since being drafted in the 2^nd round in 2010. The best case scenario is that Conner can win the job and play as well as an every down starter as he did last year in a more limited role. It’s a big time projection.

Grade: B-

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Secondary

One of the free agent additions in the secondary was Greg Toler, who was signed to a 3 year deal worth 15 million, a serious overpay considering injuries have limited him to 308 snaps last season and caused him to miss the entirety of the 2011 season. He played very well last season, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 27^th ranked cornerback and 15^th ranked cover cornerback despite his limited playing time, as he allowed 17 catches on 41 attempts for 266 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 6 passes and committing 3 penalties. There’s upside with him, if he can ever stay healthy, but the Colts are taking a big risk.

Toler will start opposite Vontae Davis, who has his own injury history. They acquired him from the Dolphins for a 2^nd and 5^th round pick before last season, expecting the 2009 1^st round pick to bounce back to 2010 levels, when he was ProFootballFocus’ 12^th ranked cornerback. However, he was also coming off an injury riddled 2011 season in which he played just 699 snaps and because of durability and work ethic issues, the Dolphins actually demoted him out of the starting unit in Training Camp. It was a risk and it didn’t really pay off, as he graded out below average on 606 snaps. In 4 years in the league, he’s only made 16 starts once and he’s missed 10 games over the past 2 seasons. He played really well in 2010 and he could be a bounce back candidate going into his contract year, but there’s no guarantee.

On the slot, Darius Butler returns. A flameout as a 2^nd round pick of the Patriots in 2009, Butler actually played well down the stretch once taking over as their slot back with the Colts, the 3^rd team he’s played for in his short career. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 31^st ranked cornerback and 24^th ranked coverage cornerback, doing so on just 380 snaps. He allowed 27 catches on 50 attempts for 309 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 2 passes and not committing a penalty. He ranked 2^nd in the NFL among eligible cornerbacks in QB rating allowed and 4^th in the NFL among eligible cornerbacks in QB rating allowed while on the slot. Of course, that was very limited playing time and he has never been dependable in the past. It’s going to be hard to count on him.

Given that it’s going to be very hard to count on any of their top-3 cornerbacks, it’s very possible #4 cornerback Cassius Vaughn could see serious playing time again. He actually led the team in snaps played by a cornerback, playing 840 last season and he was awful, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ absolute worst ranked cornerback, allowing 66 catches on 106 attempts for 794 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 7 passes and committing 9 penalties.

The other free agent addition in the secondary was LaRon Landry, who was signed to a 4 year deal worth 24 million. He was once one of the best safeties in the NFL, grading out 5^th in 2008 and 15^th in 2010 (with a 83^rd out of 88 eligible ranked season in between), but those days could be gone because of injuries, going into just his age 29 season. Achilles problems limited him to 512 snaps in 2011 and forced him to settle for a one year deal with the Jets last off-season, where he graded out significantly below average, ranking 65^th out of 88 eligible safeties.

He’ll play opposite Antoine Bethea, the Colts’ 3^rd longest tenured player behind Reggie Wayne and Robert Mathis. He’s been better in the past, grading out slightly above average in every season from 2008-2011, but last year graded slightly below average. It’s possible he could bounce back, but he’s never really had a great season. He’s an average to above average starter, going into his age 29 season. He hasn’t missed a game since 2007 and he’s an incredibly reliable starter, which makes him pretty much the opposite of the rest of this secondary.

Grade: C+

Head Coach

Bruce Arians won Coach of the Year for his work filling in as Interim Head Coach for Chuck Pagano last season and while Pagano coached just 4 games due to his leukemia diagnosis, he was a huge off the field inspiration to this team and locker room presence when his body allowed for it. On top of that, he put in all the work with this team before the season. You don’t just roll out of bed week 1 much improved team. He was their coach for 4 months from rookie camp to week 1 before he was even diagnosed with cancer and laid the framework for Arians to take over and have the kind of success they did. I argued the two of them should have split the Coach of the Year award. That being said, we’ve yet to see how he can do as the Head Coach of a team for a full year, so it’s tough to grade him. As I do with 1^st year Head Coaches, it’s important to temper expectations.

Grade: B

Overall

Andrew Luck will take a leap forward offensively and they have added talent defensively, so the Colts will probably play better this season, but they only played about as well as a 7-win team last season, before you even take into account their schedule. Their schedule isn’t a ton tougher this year, but they are unlikely to make a 2^nd straight playoff appearance, unless Luck takes a major leap forward.

In the division, they’ll probably take both games from Jacksonville, but they’re more likely to split with Tennessee (an improved team who they beat by a combined 10 points last season) than they are to beat Houston, a team who is on a higher level. I have them at 3-3 in the division. Outside the division, they do host Oakland, which should be a win, but Miami and St. Louis will be tougher and Denver and Seattle will both will very tough. I think they’ll win 2 or 3 of those games. On the road, they have to go to San Francisco, San Diego, Arizona, Cincinnati, and Kansas City. They were -61 on the road last season, so they’ll have a tough time winning more than a game or two of those. They’ll probably be between 6 and 8 wins, but for parity’s sake, I have them at 6-10.

Projection: 6-10 2^nd in AFC South

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Houston Texans 2013 NFL Season Preview

July 30, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Texans, Uncategorized

Introduction

In 2011, the Texans won 10 games despite having their starting quarterback and top receiver only play together in 4 games. Before Matt Schaub went down with injury and missed the final 6 games of the season, the Texans were 7-3, scoring 27.3 points per game and allowing 16.6, which would have been 5^th and 3^rd respectively over the course of the season. Those numbers translate to a Pythagorean Expectation of 12.2 wins, which would have been second in the league that season. And all of that was despite Andre Johnson playing in just 4 of those 10 games, and Arian Foster missing 3 of those games.

Even after Schaub got hurt, they finished 10-6, going 3-3 without him and a 4th ranked scoring defense (17.4 points per game) and a 2nd ranked rushing offense (2448 yards) carried this team to the AFC semis, winning a playoff game. They lost Mario Williams going into 2012, but he missed all but 5 games with injury in 2011, so it didn’t look like it would be a loss that would set the Texans back much. Going into 2012, the Texans looked poised to be one of the best teams in the league.

For the first 5 games of the season, the Texans looked every bit as good as I expected. They won their first 5 games and unlike the only other undefeated team in the league at the time, Atlanta, they were doing it in impressive fashion, either knocking off a future playoff team or winning in blowout fashion by 20 or more in 4 of those games. However, things changed after week 5, a 6 point win over the Jets (their least impressive showing at that point in the season).

They went 7-4 the rest of the way, but not in impressive fashion. From week 6 on, they got blown out at home by the Packers, blew out the Ravens (their only really impressive game), beat the Bills by 12, beat the Bears by 7, which looked more impressive at the time than it was, especially since Jay Cutler didn’t even make it to halftime. Then they won in overtime against both the Jaguars and Lions and beat the Titans by 14 before their final 4 games, where they played 4 playoff teams, New England, Minnesota, and the Colts twice, losing 3 times by double digits. After a less than impressive win over the Bengals in the post-season, they lost convincingly in New England to the Patriots in the next round.

What happened week 5? Well, against the Jets, stud middle linebacker Brian Cushing got hurt. Without him, they ranked 18th in opponents’ scoring and 13th in opponents’ yardage, after starting the season as the top yardage and scoring defense in the NFL. They also saw top cornerback Johnathan Joseph miss time and struggle through a groin injury and not play anywhere near the level they were expecting him.

They finished the season much worse than their 12-4 record would suggest. They had a less than stellar scoring differential, going +85 on the season, including +9 in their final 11 games, +2 if you include the playoffs. Overall, they had a Pythagorean Expectation of 10 wins, despite a weak schedule. They ranked 11^th in the NFL in DVOA, 19^th in weighted DVOA (weighs later games more heavily). They also were very reliant on winning the turnover battle, with a +12 turnover margin, with 29 takeaways and 17 turnovers.

That tends to be unsustainable on a year-to-year basis. For example, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers on average turn the ball over 25.5 times the following season, while teams that turn the ball over 35 or more times turn the ball over 28.1 times the following season. Teams with 20 or fewer takeaways take the ball away an average of 25.3 times the following season, while teams with 35 or more takeaways take the ball away an average of 27.3 times the following season. Teams with a turnover differential of +15 or higher have a turnover differential of +3.6 the following season, while teams with a turnover differential of -15 have a turnover differential of +1.5 the following season.

Once again, the Texans were one of the league’s top “what could have been teams,” a team that flashes greatness when totally healthy, but can’t hold it together when injuries strike. They’ll never be completely healthy and it’s not like they’ve had an absurd amount of injuries, ranking 8^th in adjusted games lost in 2012 and 11^th in 2011. They just don’t seem to be able to take hits and keep on going and it’s very possible they’re just an above average team which flashes elite ability in the perfect scenario. They’re still the best team in their division, but I think they’re behind both Denver and New England in the AFC and maybe even Baltimore.

Quarterback

In 9 games against playoff teams in 2012 (including playoffs), Matt Schaub was 207 of 320 (64.7%) for 2329 yards (7.3 YPA), 9 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, a QB rating of 85.3, leading the Texans to 23.3 points per game. In the other 9 games, he was 206 of 313 (65.8%) for 2284 yards (7.3 YPA), 15 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, a QB rating of 95.3, leading the Texans to 28.1 points per game. Going into his age 32 season, we know what he is. He’s an average to slightly above average quarterback who is noticeably better against easier opponents. He’s also missed 16 starts in 6 years as a starter and just posted his worst QB rating in 5 seasons, suggesting he may be on the decline. You can win a Super Bowl with him, but you need everything around him to be right.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Matt Schaub used to be able to rely on great production from Arian Foster. Last season, that wasn’t really the case. In fact, Foster might be the most overrated player in the NFL. A lot of this has to do with fantasy football as Foster as he’s perennially a top-5 scoring running back in fantasy football because he gets a ton of carries on a good offense. Even his fellow NFL players overrate him, as he was 8^th in the player’s top-100 list, 2^nd among running backs behind, of course, Adrian Peterson.

In reality, he didn’t have that good of a year. He averaged just 4.1 yards per carry and only had so many yards because he got 351 carries, more than anyone in the NFL and 61 more than anyone in the AFC. He also ran behind a good offensive line (ProFootballFocus’ 13^th ranked run blocking offensive line) and many backs could total those kinds of numbers behind that line with that many carries. He averaged just 2.2 yards per carry after contact, 40^th out of 59 eligible backs.

The only thing commendable about his 2012 season was that he managed to have that many carries without getting hurt, but if he had, any back filling in for him probably would have given them comparable production. Add in his surprisingly mediocre season as a pass catcher and the fact that only 8 backs graded out worse than him in pass protection and you have a guy who barely graded out above average on ProFootballFocus. He also, as did the rest of the team, faced a fairly easy schedule and 4 of his mere 5 performances were he went over 5 yards per carry came against teams that ranked 21^st or worse in YPC allowed.

Since his breakout 2010 season, Foster has been trending down. His YPC has fallen from 4.9 to 4.4 to 4.1. Losing one of the top fullbacks in the NFL in Vonta Leach after 2010 and two more starters on the offensive line after 2011 have hurt, as the Texans have gone from 3^rd to 7^th to 13^th in terms of run blocking in the last 3 seasons. Things probably won’t be much better there this season and it’s not like they’re awful upfront or anything. They just aren’t the elite run blocking offensive line they used to be when Foster was a more efficient back.

Part of it also has to do with the sheer volume of work he’s gotten over the past 3 years, as he’s had 1115 regular season touches, plus another 128 post-season touches. Last season, he led the NFL with 351 carries which is bad news for his 2013. Since 1988, only 4 of 24 running backs who led the league in carries surpassed their rushing yards total the following season. 2 of those backs were Emmitt Smith and one was a 22 year old Edgerrin James in his 2nd year in the league. The other was a 27 year old Clinton Portis, so it’s not impossible to do it several years into your career without being Emmitt Smith, but the numbers are against him. Portis also went on to break down the very next year (124/494/1) and was out of the league before his 30th birthday. Foster is 27 next month, by the way.

Since 1988, backs who lead the league in carries have averaged 367.7 carries per season, rushed for 1620.4 yards, and scored 14.3 touchdowns. The following season, they averaged 266.0 carries per season, rushed for 1063.5 yards, and scored 8.9 touchdowns. This is for two reasons. For one, it’s almost impossible to keep up that kind of production on a yearly basis and that doesn’t just apply to running backs.

What does apply to only running backs is how much they tire out. All of those carries puts a lot of tread on their tires in a short period of time. We’re talking about guys who are lucky if they have 8 year careers. Foster is already struggling through a calf injury in Training Camp. We could see a career worst season from him this year. I said the same thing about Maurice Jones-Drew last off-season. He was only 5 months older and managed just 414 yards and a touchdown on 86 carries thanks to an injury.

In the likely event that Foster struggles or gets hurt, it will open the door for Ben Tate. Tate struggled through injuries of his own in 2012, rushing for 279 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 65 carries, but in 2011, he rushed for 942 yards and 4 touchdowns on 175 carries. In the 8 games he had double digit carries, he managed 721 yards and 4 touchdowns on 133 carries. He’s a more than capable #2 back and fill in starter when necessary, assuming he doesn’t get hurt himself. He’s played just 26 of a possible 48 games in his first 3 seasons in the NFL thanks to various injuries. He should have a bigger impact this season than last though and, if he impresses, it could open the door for him to get a starting job elsewhere in 2014 as a free agent.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Texans lost 2 starting offensive linemen in the 2012 off-season, losing right guard Mike Brisiel and right tackle Eric Winston. It hurt the Texans’ run blocking, taking them down a level or two from being an elite run blocking offensive line. The effect was less noticeable in pass protection, as they went from 7^th to 11^th in terms of pass blocking grade and 7^th to 8^th in pass block efficiency.

The rock of their offensive line is left tackle Duane Brown, who has quietly emerged as maybe the best left tackle in the game, grading out 5^th among offensive tackles (2^nd among left tackles) on ProFootballFocus in 2011 and 2^nd in 2012. No other tackle can say the same and only Joe Thomas can even say he was in the top-7 tackles both seasons. Unlike Thomas, Brown is very good both in pass protection and run blocking. In some order with Thomas and Joe Staley (#1 last year), he’s a top-3 left tackle at worst. Sacks aren’t a tell all stat, but from week 16 of the 2010 season to week 7 of the 2012 season, he didn’t allow a single sack, 27 games including playoffs, and he also had just 8 penalties.

The other elite offensive lineman for the Texans is center Chris Myers, a better run blocker than pass protector, but still a very, very good center. He’s graded out in the top-8 overall in each of the last 4 seasons, including 7^th last season. Only Nick Mangold can say the same among centers. Going into his age 32 season, he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down and it’s not unheard of for interior offensive linemen to play well into their mid-30s.

Sandwiched between Brown and Myers is left guard Wade Smith. Smith was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked guard in 2010 in his first year as a starter after being very, very good in limited action in Kansas City early in his career, but he ranked 63th out of 78 eligible in 2011. Last season, he was right in the middle, just above average, but not significantly above average. That’s probably about the type of player he is, but considering his past, it’s tough to know what to predict from him though. I consider him a solid starter, however.

The right side of the offensive line is the much bigger concern. After all, they did lose the right side of their line in the 2012 off-season, without really replacing them. At right guard, the Texans used a rotation of Ben Jones and Antoine Caldwell and at right tackle they rotated Derek Newton and Ryan Harris. Harris is the only player in that quartet to grade out above average, doing so on just 416 snaps.

This season, instead of using a rotation, the Texans will be using a more traditional system at right guard and right tackle, which is good news considering how important continuity is to an offensive line. 2012 3^rd round pick Brandon Brooks will compete with 2012 4^th round pick Ben Jones for the right guard spot. Jones, despite being the lower pick, played 702 snaps to Brooks’ 101 last season, but Brooks played better in his snaps and is the higher pick so he’s seen as the favorite going into 2013.

The big guard has slimmed down to 325 pounds, which will help him be a better fit for this zone blocking scheme and even when he was bigger, he was pretty athletic, running a 4.98 40 at his Pro Day at 6-4 348 after not being invited to the Combine. We’ll see if he can translate that to the field. Jones, meanwhile, is better suited to being a utility interior lineman.

At right tackle, Derek Newton is seen as the favorite, but he was ProFootballFocus’ 65^th ranked offensive tackle out of 80 eligible last season. The 2011 7^th round pick is nothing special at best. He’ll face competition from Ryan Harris, but Harris is actually listed as the 2^nd string left tackle right now and may be headed for a swing tackle role. The Texans drafted Brennan Williams in the 3^rd round to provide competition, but he recently had knee surgery. It probably won’t cost him many regular season games, if any, but it will severely hurt the rookie’s chances at winning the right tackle job. Overall, it’s a good offensive line, but it has holes and it’s not what it used to be.

Grade: B+

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

The Texans got a vintage year from Andre Johnson in 2012, as he caught 112 passes for 1598 yards and 4 touchdowns, leading the NFL in yards per route run with 3.01 and ranking 2^nd in the NFL in yards overall behind Calvin Johnson (who played over 200 more pass snaps). Those yards were actually a career high and those catches were 2^nd in his career, pretty impressive considering he has 818 catches for 11,254 yards over 10 seasons. It was also unexpected considering he was 31 years old and coming off a season in which he played in just 7 games with injury.

However, the Texans saw the need for another receiver this off-season. Johnson has still missed 12 games in the last 3 seasons and is going into his age 32 season. The concerns about him before last season had merit. They just didn’t prove to be an issue, but they could be this season. Besides, after him, no other wide receiver had more than 64 targets last year (and that was a soon to be 32-year-old Kevin Walter who was cut this off-season). In fact, 4 of their 6 receivers last year were two tight ends, a fullback, and a running back. After Johnson and Walter, no wide receiver had more than 10 catches (Keshawn Martin), 26 targets (Keshawn Martin), or 151 yards (Lester Jean).

The Texans filled that need in the draft, using a 1st round pick on DeAndre Hopkins from Clemson. Hopkins has a bright future, but he’s just a rookie. Since 2005, 28 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 40 catches for 557 yards and 3 touchdowns per season as rookies. He’s not a serious threat to eat much into Johnson’s targets or production and the Texans better hope that Johnson can perform as an elite receiver for one more season.

As I mentioned, there’s some concern about whether or not he can do that, especially with his injury history. Johnson is 27th all-time with 11,254 receiving yards but even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Johnson has 2 years before he gets to that point, but it’s just an average so we’re within range, which means it’s time to be a little bit concerned.

Hopkins will start immediately, though more out of need than anything. He’ll see a lot of snaps in that #2 wide receiver role as the Texans don’t rotate outside receivers much, giving the mediocre Walter 837 snaps last season. He’s an above average run blocker, which will be important to the Texans because of their run heavy nature. Keshawn Martin figures to be the slot receiver. It’s a role more suited to his skill set than Lester Jean or DeVier Posey.

Martin was a 4^th round pick in 2012 and pretty inefficient as a rookie, catching 10 passes for 85 yards on 26 targets with 5 drops and a pass catch rating that would have been 5^th worst at his position on ProFootballFocus if he had been eligible, despite limited playing time. Posey was a 3^rd round pick in that same draft, but a torn Achilles suffered in January has his season in doubt. He’ll almost definitely miss the first 6 games on the physically unable to perform list. Jean, meanwhile, was undrafted in 2011, but had a lot of hype going into last season because of his physical skill set. He disappointed though, with just 6 catches. He’s going into his 3^rd year in the league, but I think it’s more likely that he’s the next Jacoby Jones (at best) than anything special.

Martin won’t see a lot of action in that slot role this season though. After Johnson and Walter, the other 3 receivers who saw action last season, Martin, Jean, and Posey, saw just 613 combined snaps, including just 351 pass snaps. That’s because the Texans rarely use 3-wide receiver sets, preferring to use two-tight end sets and fullback sets with regularity. That might change a little bit in 2013 with great pass catching fullback James Casey (who lined up as a fullback, h-back, and tight end last season on 609 snaps) gone, but new fullback Greg Jones figures to play a bunch of snaps still, especially on running downs and tight ends Owen Daniels and Garrett Graham will still see a lot of action.

Graham did well in Joel Dreessen’s old role last season, run blocking well on 334 run block snaps despite concerns about his 6-3 243 frame and adding 28 catches for 263 yards on 232 pass snaps. Despite being a #2 tight end, he played the 30^th most snaps at his position. That doesn’t sound like much, but they were the only team in the NFL with 2 tight ends in the top-30 in snaps played and that’s before you take into account James Casey’s tight-end-esque role. The intermediate passing game is a huge part of their offense.

Owen Daniels, meanwhile, remains a solid tight end, catching 62 passes for 716 yards and 6 touchdowns. He gets overlooked. The only issue with him, aside from slightly subpar run blocking is that he’s missed 15 games in the last 4 seasons combined and has failed to play in all 16 games since 2008. With Casey gone, it’ll be up to Ryan Griffin to play in 2-tight end sets if Daniels gets hurt again. He’s a mere 6^th round rookie.

Grade: B

Defensive Line

JJ Fucking Watt. At 23 years of age in his 2^nd year in the league, playing with torn ligaments in his elbow, Watt had what defensive coordinator Wade Phillips called the “absolute best” season by any defensive lineman in NFL history. Phillips would know, considering he’s been in the NFL since 1976 and has coached DeMarcus Ware, Bruce Smith, Reggie White, and Clyde Simmons, who, along with Watt, have combined for 6 of the 13 highest single season sack totals in NFL history.

I haven’t seen as much football as Phillips, but I’m inclined to agree with him. While his 21 sacks don’t break the single season record, Watt had those 21 sacks despite being an interior defensive lineman, having to fight through more junk to get to the quarterback and not having the luxury of coming from a quarterback’s blindside. You can’t say that about any other player who has ever had as many sacks in a season as Watt did last season.

He also had an NFL record 15 batted passes and played the run incredibly well. His 57 solo tackles not only led his position and not only led all defensive linemen in 2012, but they came for an average gain of 0.16 yards by the ball carrier, best in the NFL among players at any position. He also had 72 stops (tackles or sacks within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage on first down, 6 yards of the line of scrimmage on 2^nd down, and the full distance on 3^rd or 4^th down). That was best in the NFL among players at any position and he missed just 2 tackles in the process.

Along with those 21 sacks, he also had 25 quarterback hits and 30 quarterback hurries on 610 pass rush snaps, a 12.5% rate which is absolutely ridiculous for his position. He was 1^st at his position in pass rush productivity at 10.8 (sacks + .75 hits +.75 hurries). No other eligible player at his position had a pass rush productivity higher than 9.5, in addition to leading his position in run stop percentage (percentage of run snaps with a stop) by 5.3%.

He had the highest regular season grade in ProFootballFocus history (5 years, but still) of +101.8. No one else has ever posted a season of +80.0 at any position and no one has ever been higher than +49.5 at 3-4 defensive end. He was incredibly consistent, not posting a score lower than +1.9 in a single game throughout the regular season, before a -0.1 in the playoff loss to New England. He was above +4.5 in every regular season game except that +1.9 game (against Chicago). As a rookie, he ranked 5^th at his position on ProFootballFocus and played very well down the stretch, going over +4.1 in 4 of his last 8 games and over +2.4 in 6 of his last 8 (including playoffs). Last season wasn’t a fluke. It was just a supremely talented player coming into his own.

I can definitely understand why Phillips sees is as the greatest season a defensive lineman has ever had. He won the Defensive Player of the Year, winning 49 of 50 votes, and he should be the heavy early favorite to repeat in 2013, with another year of experience and a healthy elbow. He’d join Lawrence Taylor, Joe Greene, Mike Singletary, Bruce Smith, Reggie White, and Ray Lewis as the only players to win the award multiple times and join Taylor as the only one to win it in back-to-back seasons (he did it in a strike shortened season). At the end of the day, he could surpass Lawrence Taylor’s record 3 Defensive Player of the Year awards. Watt might not improve on 2012, but that will only be because it’s tough to improve on the best. There’s no non-quarterback I’d rather start a team with, hands down.

Opposite him, Antonio Smith isn’t too shabby either. He was never anything special (at best) before Wade Phillips came along before the 2011 season, but he’s ranked 8^th and 6^th among 3-4 defensive ends on ProFootballFocus in the last 2 seasons. At 6-3 274, he was a tweener in Houston’s old 4-3, but he’s been an excellent fit in Wade Phillips’ 3-4. He’s a bit undersized for a 5-technique end and he struggles against the run, but he’s great at getting to the quarterback. He’s ranked 2^nd at his position rushing the passer in each of the last 2 seasons, last year coming in 2^nd only to Watt, as he had 8 sacks, 8 hits, and 31 hurries on 548 pass rush snaps, a 8.6% rate. Watt’s presence helps him as he rarely sees double teams, but he’s an excellent pass rusher in his own right.

The only minor concern is he’s going into his age 32 season, which also happens to be a contract year. Some decline can be expected. The Texans have 2012 4^th round pick Jared Crick behind him as insurance and he might be a starter in 2014 and beyond. Crick showed well as a rookie in 2012, on 220 snaps, especially playing well against the run. He was seen as a 2^nd round talent before an injury ended his senior season early and hurt his draft stock.

In between Watt and Smith is Earl Mitchell, the nose tackle. The 6-2 296 pounder is undersized for the position, but Wade Phillips usually has undersized nose tackles. He’s only a base package player who comes off the field for a 5^th defensive back in sub packages. He’s a decent player who doesn’t play an overly important role, but he could see more snaps this season now that Shaun Cody, a mediocre reserve, is gone.

Terrell McClain, who was awful as a 3^rd round rookie in 2011 with the Panthers, is their top reserve at the position now. He played just 10 snaps last season and based on his rookie play, it’s not a good thing if he’s on the field, so Mitchell will have a bigger role, unless 6^th round rookie Chris Jones can surprise. That being said, it’s not an overly important position and the Texans still have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL because they have maybe the best pair of 5-technique ends in the NFL.

Grade: A

Linebackers

Despite JJ Watt’s presence on the defensive line (and Smith’s), the Texans got shockingly little production from their rush linebackers last season. Watt and Smith combined for 29 sacks (and that’s not even their primary job as 5-technique ends), but the rest of the team combined for just 18. After an okay first season as a starter in 2011, Connor Barwin sucked in 2012, grading out 2nd worst at his position in pass rush grade and 3rd worst overall. He managed just 4 sacks, 12 hits, and 24 hurries on 570 pass rush snaps, a pathetic 7.0% rate for his position, especially considering the play of the defensive line.

He’s gone, but it’s not like they really replaced him. Top reserve Whitney Mercilus will move into the starting lineup for him opposite Brooks Reed and rookies Sam Montgomery (3^rd round) and Trevardo Williams (4^th round) will compete to be the primary backup. Mercilus also sucked last season, managing just 6 sacks, 1 hit, and 14 hurries, including playoffs, on 310 pass rush snaps, a very poor 6.8% pass rush rate, splitting snaps with Brooks Reed opposite Connor Barwin. He was ProFootballFocus’ 29th rated 3-4 outside linebacker out of 34 eligible.

However, I loved him coming out of Illinois and he’ll line up almost exclusively at right outside linebacker, the primary pass rushing position in Wade Phillips’ scheme (the DeMarcus Ware, Connor Barwin role), rather than moving around the formation, as he did as a rookie. This could very well help him, especially since he played almost entirely on the right side in college at Illinois. It’s a projection, but I expect him to have at least a decent year.

Opposite him, Brooks Reed was the best of their 3 rush linebackers last season, grading out about average, but he too struggled rushing the passer with 3 sacks, 3 hits, and 18 hurries on 308 pass rush snaps, a 7.8% rate, despite sharing a side with JJ Watt, who ate up blockers in front of him. He made for it by playing the run well and covering well and not committing a penalty, but he’s been a poor pass rusher in his 2 seasons since being drafted in the 2^nd round in 2011. There’s been some talk of him moving to middle linebacker, which might fit his skill set better, but in order for that to happen, someone would have to step up and take his spot as a starter and even then it would leave them dangerously thin at the position.

The Texans are hoping one or both of their rookies, Sam Montgomery or Trevardo Williams can do so. They’ll probably be really disappointed with Montgomery. Athletically, he’s a poor fit for a 3-4 and he also has serious red flags. He interviewed terribly, admitting to betting in college and taking games (not plays, games) off. On top of that, he was slammed by his former coaches and reports say that the Texans may not have had the whole story when they drafted him and that no one who knew that whole story would have touched him anywhere near the 3^rd round. He’s not off to a good start, landing on the non-football injury list, coming to camp out of shape and with an ankle problem. Williams, meanwhile, seems more promising, but it’ll be hard to count on him as a rookie.

Part of the reason why there is talk of moving Reed to inside linebacker is that there’s a big hole inside next to Brian Cushing. There was way too much of Bradie James, Darryl Sharpton, Tim Dobbins, and Barrett Ruud inside last year, especially after Cushing got hurt. None of those four graded out above average. The Texans planned to select Arthur Brown in the 2^nd round to fill that void, but the Ravens traded up ahead of them to grab him.

They only addressed the position this off-season by signing Joe Mays late in the off-season, after he was cut by the Broncos. He’s a pretty mediocre starter who was benched early last season before eventually ending up on injured reserve with a broken leg. He doesn’t represent much of an upgrade. The Texans will be giving the mediocre (at best) Sharpton another shot, provided he doesn’t get hurt like he always does. He’s already on the non-football injury list with a bad groin, after spending much of the off-season struggling to come back from a late season hip injury. That’s part of the reason why they signed Mays, who figures to get the first great at the job if Sharpton can’t go. Even if that situation, he might only be a two-down player.

Cushing, meanwhile, is coming back from his own injury, that aforementioned torn ACL. He’ll be 11 months removed from it by week 1 so he should be good to go, but it’s possible that he won’t be the same player he was before, at least early in the season. I mentioned how much this defense went downhill after he got hurt. That wasn’t all him, but it had something to do with it, especially considering their atrocious depth at the position. Prior to his injury, the 2009 1^st round pick was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked middle linebacker in 2011 and on to his way to another good season before the injury. He was also ProFootballFocus 2^nd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in the Texans’ old 4-3 in 2009, winning Defensive Rookie of the Year, with a suspension shortened season in between. He’s easily their best linebacker in a unit full of question marks.

Grade: B-

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Secondary

As I mentioned earlier, Johnathan Joseph suffered a groin injury mid-season and wasn’t the same. Fortunately for them, 2010 1^st round pick Kareem Jackson finally came into his own in his 3^rd year in the league. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 13^th ranked cornerback last season, allowing 44 completions on 94 attempts for 611 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 10 passes and committing 5 penalties.

He was pretty bad in his first 2 years in the league, so I’ll have to see it again and he rarely covers opponent’s #1 cornerbacks, so I can’t consider him elite or anything, but he’s a very important part of this secondary. If Joseph can bounce back this year, it will make their secondary so tough to throw on because they’ll no longer be able to just throw away from Joseph and pick on the other side of the field.

Joseph was ProFootballFocus 9^th ranked cornerback in 2011 in his first year in Houston and had graded out positively for the previous 4 seasons, including a 6^th place ranking in 2009. He was off to a similarly good start in 2011, allowing 8 completions on 19 attempts for 86 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 2 passes and not committing a penalty. However, a groin injury suffered before week 4 limited him the rest of the way, causing him to miss 2 games in the process. He allowed 44 completions on 73 attempts for 552 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception the rest of the way, while deflecting just 4 passes and committing 4 penalties. He finished the season as ProFootballFocus’ 43^rd ranked cornerback, just above average. He’s an obvious bounce back candidate, only going into his age 29 season.

Brice McCain will continue to work the slot, after re-signing for 3 years this off-season. The 2009 6^th round pick has been their #3 cornerback dating back to 2010, moving to the slot in 2011. He played well on the slot in 2011, allowing a 48.7 QB rating on slot snaps, but wasn’t nearly as good there in 2012, with a 92.8 rating on slot snaps, and he was awful when he tried to play outside in Joseph’s absence. He was also awful in 2010 as an outside cornerback. At best, he’s a solid slot cornerback who can’t play on the outside, which makes sense given that he’s just 5-9 180. He could be pushed by Brandon Harris, a 2011 2^nd round pick who hasn’t done anything in his two years in the league, playing just 205 snaps. He’s starting to look like a bust.e wH

The Texans lost starting safety Glover Quin this off-season, which wasn’t a huge loss. He’s an average starter who was overpaid by the Lions, who gave him 25 million over 5 years. The problem is the Texans made an even bigger overpay to replace him, signing Ed Reed for 15 million over 3 years. Reed is a future Hall of Famer, but he’s also coming off a season in which he ranked below average overall, turning 35 in September, and dealing with a bad hip that could cost him regular season games.

The Texans reportedly didn’t know of Reed’s hip injury and eventual need for surgery before signing him (while the Ravens did), so this looks like a big mistake on their part. His days as a solid starter are gone and they may be lucky if they get 12 games out of him from the looks of it. He had surgery in late April. 2^nd round rookie DJ Swearinger could be seeing more action than they expected. He was drafted as the heir apparent to Reed, but it’s tough to count on him as a rookie.

At the other safety spot, Danieal Manning remains an above average starter. He’s going into his age 31 season so his best days might be behind him (he was ProFootballFocus’ 7^th ranked safety in 2010), but he’s graded out positively in each of the last 4 seasons since moving from cornerback to safety. He’s not over the hill yet. It’s not a perfect secondary, but they could very well have one of the best cornerback duos in the NFL and that counts for a lot.

Grade: A-

Head Coach

Once a perennial candidate to be fired (at least in the media), Gary Kubiak has strung together 10 and 12 win seasons and rewarded the Texans for being patient with him, ignoring the calls for his job for continuity’s sake. After Bill Belichick, Marvin Lewis, and Tom Coughlin, he’s the 4^th longest tenured Head Coach in the NFL (along with Sean Payton and Mike McCarthy, who also came in before the 2006 season). It’s helped him greatly that he’s added Wade Phillips to his coaching staff to coordinate the defense, allowing Kubiak to focus on offense, where the Mike Shanahan disciple is an underrated game planner, play caller, and strong schematically, with his signature zone blocking offensive line and two-tight end heavy offense.

Grade: B+

Overall

As I mentioned in the opening, I think the Texans are a good team that flashes greatness, but something always goes wrong (usually injuries that they can’t excel in spite of). I could say that the Texans will be one of the best teams in the NFL this season now that Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, Brian Cushing are all healthy at the same time (it’s happened just 6 times in the last 2 seasons, all wins), but the NFL is messy. Nothing will ever be a perfect world. I’ve given up projecting them as that top, top level team.

That being said, they’re by far the best team in their division. I’ll get into why the Colts are overrated in their write up, but the Titans and Jaguars aren’t going to be tough opponents. They should go 5-1 in their division again. Outside the division, they host Seattle, St. Louis, Oakland, New England, and Denver. Seattle, New England, and Denver will be tough opponents, but the Seahawks aren’t good on the road and St. Louis and Oakland should be easier wins. They should go at least 3-2 in those 5 games. They also go to Baltimore, San Francisco, San Diego, Arizona, and Kansas City. Baltimore and San Francisco will be tough places to win and Kansas City is underrated and San Diego could even be tough late at night on Monday Night Football week 1, but they should win at least 2 of those games. 10-6 seems about right.

Projection: 10-6 1^st in AFC South

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Arizona Cardinals sign OLB John Abraham and OT Eric Winston

July 25, 2013 stevenlourie Cardinals, Uncategorized

After the draft, I ranked the top-18 remaining free agents and John Abraham (#1) and Eric Winston (#3) were both very high on that list. The Cardinals snatched them up in one day and they both will help two very weak points on the Cardinals’ team, their pass rush and their offensive line. However, both of them are kind of odd fits. Abraham will have to move to outside linebacker in the Cardinals’ 3-4 for the first time in his career and the 6-4 269 pounder seems like an odd fit for the position, especially going into his age 35 season.

He’ll get opportunities to rush the passer from the defensive end position in sub packages though and he is still easily the best pass rusher on a team that was led in sacks last season by a middle linebacker who has since been suspended. After middle linebacker Daryl Washington and interior defensive lineman Calais Campbell, no player on their team had more than 4 sacks last season. Before Abraham, their rush linebacker stable consisted of Sam Acho, one of the worst pass rushers in the league last season, Lorenzo Alexander, a 30-year-old career backup, 4^th round rookie Alex Okafor, and the injury prone O’Brien Schofield, a mediocre player who has since been waived upon the addition of Abraham.

Abraham is no longer capable of playing a full set of snaps because of his declining durability and mediocre run stopping skills. In an effort to keep him fresh, the Falcons played him on fewer than 70% of their snaps last season and his next team may have to go even lower than that as he ages. However, he can still have a major impact for a team, provided his skills haven’t fallen off a cliff in his age 35 off-season. Despite his limited snaps last year, he was still one of the league’s most productive pass rushers, totaling 10 sacks, 8 hits, and 36 hurries on 436 pass rush snaps, a 12.4% pass rush rate. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ #5 end both overall and rushing the passer and he ranked 6th in pass rush efficiency.

Winston, meanwhile, is purely a right tackle, which is one of the only spots on their offensive line where they don’t have a real problem. Bobby Massie played great in the 2nd half of last season, allowing no sacks, 4 hits, and 7 hurries after allowing 13 sacks, 2 hits, and 35 hurries in the first 8 games of the season. The light really seemed to turn on for the 4th round rookie. Now he’ll have to move to right guard, where he has no experience. Winston, however, has graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 5th and 9th rated right tackle in the NFL in 2011 and 2012 respectively, doing so in two different schemes. Winston and Abraham came cheap (Abraham got 6 million over 2 years and Winston’s terms haven’t been disclosed) and while they’re odd fits, they’ll help this football team at a reasonable price.

Grade: A

Seattle Seahawks 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

July 25, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Seahawks, Uncategorized

QB Russell Wilson (Seattle)

In the 2^nd half of last season, Wilson completed 123 of 183 passes for 1652 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, rushing for 361 yards and 4 touchdowns on 58 attempts. That’s 3304 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, with 722 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns on 116 attempts over a 16 game season. He won’t match those numbers, because that would be absurd, a 120.3 QB rating with plus rushing ability, but he should surpass his rookie numbers and be a solid QB1.

Projection: 3300 passing yards 27 touchdowns 8 interceptions 550 rushing yards 6 touchdowns (315 pts standard, 369 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Marshawn Lynch (Seattle)

Marshawn Lynch has completely revitalized his career in Seattle. He struggled in his first season in Seattle, with the exception of the beast mode run in the post-season against the Saints, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, but in 2011, he averaged 4.2 yards per carry on 285 carries with 12 touchdowns. In 2012, he improved that to 5.0 yards per carry on 315 carries with another 11 touchdowns as Russell Wilson’s arm and rushing ability took the defense’s attention off of Lynch. His only real flaw is he’s caught just 51 passes in the last 2 seasons. I don’t see why Lynch can’t do something similar again in 2013, though he may see slightly fewer carries heading into his age 27 season as the Seahawks used a 2nd round pick on a running back in Christine Michael.

Projection: 280 carries for 1320 rushing yards 11 total touchdowns 25 catches for 190 receiving yards (217 pts standard, 242 pts PPR)

WR Golden Tate (Seattle)

7/30/13: Harvin is out for most of the season. Rice’s knee remains a problem. That opens the door for Golden Tate to not only enter back into the starting lineup, but for him to probably lead this team in receiving. He had 25 catches for 433 yards and 4 touchdowns in his final 8 games last season and is the Seattle receiver to own in fantasy.

Golden Tate also had a very solid year last year, as the 2010 2nd round pick broke out in his 3rd season in the league the way so many receivers do. Again, the stats didn’t show it as he caught just 45 passes for 688 yards and 7 touchdowns, but he did that on just 378 routes run, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 24th ranked wide receiver overall. However, with Harvin coming in, like with Rice, the smart money is on his production going down as he’ll be the 3rd receiver. The Seahawks ranked 26th in the NFL in 3-wide receiver sets last season, which shouldn’t significantly go up this season. His best shot at statistical and fantasy relevance is a Rice or Harvin injury, though that’s not unlikely at all.

Projection: 55 catches for 800 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (122 pts standard, 177 pts PPR)

WR Sidney Rice (Seattle)

7/30/13: The good news for Rice is that Harvin is out for most of the season, so he won’t eat into his targets. However, Rice is also getting treatment on his knee in Switzerland. He isn’t expected to miss any games, but it’s not a good sign for a player who has topped 13 games in a season just twice in his career an has missed 23 games in the last 6 seasons. It’s just a reminder than Rice is unlikely to match last season’s numbers. I’d rather have Golden Tate.

Rice played all 16 games for the 2nd time in his 6 year career last season and, while you wouldn’t know it from his stats, he played very well. He caught just 50 passes for 748 yards and 7 touchdowns, but he did that on 422 routes run (includes sacks). If he had been on a more pass heavy team like he was in 2009, his breakout season when he ran 547 routes for Brett Favre, he would have had 65 catches for 970 yards and 9 touchdowns. He’s a very solid #2 receiver, but with Harvin coming in and his history of injury problems (23 games missed in 6 seasons), the smart money is on him not matching even the 50 catches for 748 yards and 7 touchdowns he had last season.

Projection: 44 catches for 700 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (106 pts standard, 150 pts PPR)

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Seattle Seahawks 2013 NFL Season Preview

July 25, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Introduction

The Seahawks were an incredibly different team at home and on the road last season, going 8-0 at home and 3-5 on the road. At home, they outscored opponents by 18.5 points per game (30.4-11.9), beating 4 eventual playoff teams, and on the road, they outscored opponents by just 2.3 points per game (21.1-18.8), despite playing just 1 eventual playoff team (a loss in San Francisco). It wasn’t just one unit getting significantly worse as their defense and their offense each essentially went a touchdown in each direction when they went on the road.

Things got better on the road as the Seahawks got better as the season went on (7-1 in their final 8 games) and Russell Wilson really came into his own, but only 3 of their final 8 games were on the road and while they beat Chicago and Buffalo, they also lost to Miami. In the post-season, they could have easily lost to the Redskins in Washington if Robert Griffin hadn’t gotten hurt up 14-0 and they followed that up with a loss in Atlanta the following week.

This isn’t a new thing. Going back to 2007, they are 15-37 on the road, getting outscored by 6.63 points per game, and 32-18 at home, outscoring opponents by 6.32 points per game. For that reason, I think the Seahawks aren’t as good talent wise as they appear. It’s not that they are an elite team that has issues on the road. I think that they’re a very solid team that plays like an elite team at home and shows their true colors on the road. Their incredible home crowd and home field advantage is a huge part of the team and makes them appear better than they are.

Fortunately for them, that crowd isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. If anything, it’s only going to get louder and more powerful now that the team is in contention. They’re attempting to break a world record for stadium volume in their home opener week 2. On top of that, they appear to be a more talented team than the one that won 11 games last season.

They’re a young team that should be improved with another season of experience, especially Russell Wilson, who set the world on fire in the 2^nd half of last season (albeit playing just 3 road games and 2 eventual playoff teams, both at home). They’ve added Percy Harvin and Antoine Winfield and might now have the best slot cornerback and slot receiver in the NFL. An injury to Chris Clemons on their defensive line hurts, but they’ve added Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett to help make up for that. Home field advantage taken into account, this looks like one of the most talented teams in the league on paper.

Also, despite their 11 wins, they still didn’t meet their Pythagorean Expectation last season, outscoring opponents by a total of 167 points and posting a Pythagorean Expectation of 12.4 wins, tied with the Patriots for best in the NFL last season. Given that they played a tougher schedule than the Patriots last season, you could easily make an argument that this was the best regular season team in the NFL last season and DVOA would agree. Not only were they DVOA’s top rated team last season, they were the 6^th highest ranked team in DVOA’s history, dating back to 1991, behind the 1991 Washington Redskins (Super Bowl Champs), the 2007 New England Patriots (Super Bowl runner ups), the 2010 New England Patriots (eliminated in the divisional round at home by Mark Sanchez…wait what?!), the 1996 Green Bay Packers (Super Bowl Champs), and the 1995 San Francisco 49ers (eliminated in the divisional round).

So they were probably the best team in the NFL last season, despite being one of the youngest teams in the NFL, and they’ve added more talent in the off-season. So what’s the problem? Well, it’s fourfold. The first issue is that they were ridiculous lucky in terms of injuries, ranking just 4^th in the NFL in adjusted games lost. This type of thing tends to be more luck than anything. For example, the previous season they were 27^th.

They’ve already lost Chris Clemons for an undisclosed amount of time and Percy Harvin, who they added in the off-season, is one of the more injured prone stars in the NFL and already may need hip surgery. Sidney Rice also has a history of injury problems, as does left tackle Russell Okung, and I don’t have to tell you how much it would hurt if something were to happen to Russell Wilson or Richard Sherman. I’m not saying something will, but history suggests the injury bug won’t be as friendly to them this season as it was last season.

They also benefitted from a turnover margin of +13, with 31 takeaways and 18 turnovers. That tends to be unsustainable on a year-to-year basis. For example, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers on average turn the ball over 25.5 times the following season, while teams that turn the ball over 35 or more times turn the ball over 28.1 times the following season. Teams with 20 or fewer takeaways take the ball away an average of 25.3 times the following season, while teams with 35 or more takeaways take the ball away an average of 27.3 times the following season. Teams with a turnover differential of +15 or higher have a turnover differential of +3.6 the following season, while teams with a turnover differential of -15 have a turnover differential of +1.5 the following season.

Interceptions are very unpredictable for defensive backs. A cornerback can have 8 interceptions in a season and 3 in another and not play any worse. That’s just the nature of the position and the pitfall of judging a cornerback purely on interception numbers. Darrelle Revis is one of the best cornerbacks in the game and since a 6-interception season in 2009, he has 5 total in 31 games. Part of it is teams will just throw away from him more. I know he has Brandon Browner opposite him, but Revis had Antonio Cromartie opposite him. Part of it is he’ll just get fewer good balls to pick off. Either way, he should have fewer interceptions and the Seahawks, overall, should have a less impressive turnover margin in 2013.

The third issue is just that teams that have significant win improvements tend to regress about half of that amount the following season. It’s just an average, but it’s just a rule of thumb in the NFL to note. The fourth issue is their schedule and the fact that they play most of their tough opponents on the road. Of the 6 games they play against reigning playoff teams from last season, 4 of them are on the road. They also go to Carolina and the Giants and have two nationally televised games against divisional opponents in Arizona and St. Louis that won’t be easy. Remember, those two teams beat them last season and, while the Seahawks are improved, so are they. Also, 4 of those games are 1 PM ET starts on the in the Eastern Time Zone (Indianapolis, the Giants, Carolina, and Atlanta).

There could be 4 or 5 losses on that road schedule so even if they go undefeated at home against (not unlikely considering they don’t face any tough teams outside of San Francisco and maybe Minnesota or a sucks on the road New Orleans team), they might not win more than 11 or 12 games. In any other division, that wouldn’t be a big deal, that might mean 2^nd place in the NFC West behind the 49ers, which would mean winning the Super Bowl would once again require winning 4 games away from home. I don’t think this team can do that. If they’re going to win the Super Bowl, I think they’re going to have to win the division. The circumstances with the schedule and with San Francisco being in their division I think will prevent them from doing so.

Quarterback

As I mentioned earlier, Russell Wilson set the world on fire in the 2^nd half of the season and even into the playoffs. After a 4-4 start in which he completed 61.4% of his passes for an average of 7.0 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions (with 36 carries for 128 rushing yards), leading the team to 17.5 points per game, he went 8-2 the rest of the way, completing 66.1% of his passes for an average of 9.1 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions (with 488 yards and 5 touchdowns on 73 carries), leading the team to 32.4 points per game.

However, he’s just not as good on the road. He completed just 63.6% of his passes for an average of 7.5 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions on the road, a QB rating of 86.1. That’s opposed to 64.6% completion, 9.2 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions at home, a QB rating of 123.6. And I already mentioned the Seahawks scored about 9 fewer points per game on the road than at home. Wilson was better on the road as the season went on, completing 65.1% of his passes for an average of 8.7 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and an interception, a QB rating of 107.6, but it wasn’t as good. He still went just 3-2 (would have been 2-3 if Griffin hadn’t gotten hurt), and while he did score 29.2 points per game, that was down about 6 points from his 2^nd half home stats.

And of course, I don’t expect him to keep up his 2^nd half stats into the entire 2013 season because that would be ridiculous. He’ll still be a great home quarterback and I don’t expect him to lose a home game, but there’s no denying that he’s a noticeably worse quarterback on the road, no matter how well he’s playing. If he were drafted by any team other than the Seahawks, even if they had the same supporting cast, playbook, and coaching staff, he would not be as good of a quarterback. He wouldn’t be bad, but it would be noticeably worse (though you could say the same thing about Drew Brees). And I think there are at least 4 or 5 road games he’ll lose next season and I don’t think he’s capable of winning 4 straight away from Seattle to win the Super Bowl.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Marshawn Lynch has completely revitalized his career in Seattle. He was acquired from the Bills for just a 4^th round pick in 2010 because he hadn’t lived up to his potential and because he had a history of off the field problems. He struggled in his first season in Seattle, with the exception of the beast mode run in the post-season against the Saints, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, but in 2011, he averaged 4.2 yards per carry on 285 carries with 12 touchdowns.

In 2012, he improved that to 5.0 yards per carry on 315 carries with another 11 touchdowns as Russell Wilson’s arm and rushing ability took the defense’s attention off of Lynch. Everything has gone about as well as the Seahawks could have hoped when they acquired him in 2010, with the exception of a DUI last off-season. It looks like a change of scenery was all the 2007 1^st round pick needed. His only real flaw is he’s caught just 51 passes in the last 2 seasons.

I don’t see why Lynch can’t do something similar again in 2013, though he may see slightly fewer carries heading into his age 27 season as the Seahawks used a 2^nd round pick on a running back in Christine Michael. This marks the 2^nd straight draft they’ve brought in a running back and 2012 4^th round pick Robert Turbin isn’t exactly a poor runner either, rushing for 354 yards on 80 carries and adding 19 catches as Marshawn Lynch’s primary backup and a passing down specialist.

Michael just adds another talented back to their stable. With Russell Wilson adding 94 carries of his own, no team ran the ball more often than the Seahawks in 2012, who ran 536 times to 438 pass plays (including sacks). That means they ran on 55.0% of their offensive plays. Even with Wilson going into his 2^nd season in the league, I don’t expect that to change this season and Michael’s addition only adds to that likelihood.

Even when Wilson broke out in the 2^nd half of last season, he passed just 22.5 times per game, which was actually less than the 26.25 times per game he passed in the 1^st half of the season. Part of that was they were playing with a lead more, but the point is, I don’t expect the Seahawks to pass much more than they did last season. They’ll still be a run heavy team with Lynch leading the way, two talented backups, and Wilson’s own scrambling ability. They’re a solid bet to lead the league in rushing.

Grade: A

Wide Receivers/Tight End

Another player who will add to their ground game production is Percy Harvin, their big off-season addition. The wide receiver Harvin has rushed for 683 yards and 4 touchdowns on 107 carries in 4 seasons with the Vikings and the run heavy, read option loving Pete Carroll could give him upwards of 30 carries this season. Of course, Harvin’s biggest asset will be his receiving ability, but those projecting big time numbers for him this season are mistaken.

Harvin has been very efficient on a per snap basis over the past 2 seasons. 1652 receiving yards on 651 routes run, which is among the most efficient in the NFL. And yes, he was doing that with mediocre quarterback play, but he was also his team’s only option and targeted relentlessly, which won’t be the case in Seattle. He was targeted 199 times on those 651 routes run, 30.6% of the time. With Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, Zach Miller, and all them in Seattle, he won’t be targetted nearly as frequently and they also won’t pass nearly as much.

And, of course, he’s a solid bet to get hurt. While he’s only missed 10 games in his 4 year NFL career, he’s coming off a 9-game season last year, which also happened to be the first time in his career he was an every down player and not just a slot specialist. He’s never played more than 623 snaps in a season. He has serious durability issues and there’s already concern about his hip, as of this writing, on the first day of Seahawks Training Camp. He may need surgery.

I think 1000 yards receiving is incredibly optimistic for him. I think the best case scenario is the Seahawks run 500 pass plays (62 more than they did last season), Harvin plays 450 of those pass snaps (28 more than any Seattle receiver did last season), is targeted 100 times and catches 80 passes for 1000 yards (12.5 yards per reception, almost a full yard above his career average). More likely, he is somewhere below that, though, assuming he stays moderately healthy, he’ll save his fantasy value (if you’re into that kind of thing) with his rushing yardage and the fact that he should surpass his career high of 6 touchdowns.

Sidney Rice will line up opposite him. Rice played all 16 games for the 2^nd time in his 6 year career last season and, while you wouldn’t know it from his stats, he played very well. He caught just 50 passes for 748 yards and 7 touchdowns, but he did that on 422 routes run (includes sacks). If he had been on a more pass heavy team like he was in 2009, his breakout season when he ran 547 routes for Brett Favre, he would have had 65 catches for 970 yards and 9 touchdowns. He was ProFootballFocus’ 13^th ranked receiver last year. He’s a very solid #2 receiver, but with Harvin coming in and his history of injury problems (23 games missed in 6 seasons), the smart money is on him not matching even the 50 catches for 748 yards and 7 touchdowns he had last season.

Golden Tate also had a very solid year last year, as the 2010 2^nd round pick broke out in his 3^rd season in the league the way so many receivers do. Again, the stats didn’t show it as he caught just 45 passes for 688 yards and 7 touchdowns, but he did that on just 378 routes run, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 24^th ranked wide receiver overall. However, with Harvin coming in, like with Rice, the smart money is on his production going down as he’ll be the 3^rd receiver. The Seahawks ranked 26^th in the NFL in 3-wide receiver sets last season, which shouldn’t significantly go up this season. His best shot at statistical and fantasy relevance is a Rice or Harvin injury, though that’s not unlikely at all.

Doug Baldwin will be the 4^th receiver and while he’s talented, he’s unlikely to come anywhere near the 29 catches for 366 yards and 3 touchdowns he had last season. Still, he’s a more than capable 4^th receiver and the Seahawks have come a long way from 2011, when Baldwin actually led the team by catching 51 passes for 788 yards and 4 touchdowns out of sheer necessity as an undrafted free agent rookie. Add in Zach Miller, a solid all-around tight end, and this is a talented bunch. 5^th round rookie Luke Willson will serve as the 2^nd string tight end, in place of the injured Anthony McCoy, who is already on injured reserve with a torn Achilles. Willson wasn’t a great blocker in college, but he has great natural receiving ability and can serve as more of a move tight end with Miller capable of serving as an inline tight end.

Grade: A-

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Offensive Line

The Seahawks’ weakest unit on either side of the ball is their offensive line and it isn’t really that close. While left tackle Russell Okung and center Max Unger are coming off very strong seasons, the rest of their offensive line is a mess and Okung and Unger might not even play as well this season. Okung graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 15^th ranked offensive tackle in 2012, as the 6^th overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft allowed just 1 sack all season (partially due to Russell Wilson’s mobility but still) and run blocked well, though he committed 13 penalties, 2^nd worst at his position.

However, he has a history of injury problems, as he was limited to 556 snaps as a rookie and then struggled mightily through injuries in 2011, grading out below average on 799 snaps. He could have a 2^nd straight strong season, but he could also get hurt again. Unger, meanwhile, was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked center last season, but was largely a league average player before that. I don’t doubt he can have another strong season, but I’ll need to see it again before I can consider him a top level center.

Unfortunately, that’s where the good news ends on the offensive line for the Seahawks. Breno Giacomini will once again line up at right tackle, where the mediocre career backup as ProFootballFocus’ 69^th ranked offensive tackle out of 80 eligible last season. At right guard, Paul McQuistan is in a similar career situation, though he wasn’t quite as bad last season and he has the ability to play both right and left guard depending on where he’s needed. Still, he’s a below average player.

Opposite McQuistan at guard, the Seahawks tried 3 different players last season, James Carpenter, John Moffitt, and JR Sweezy. Carpenter was a first round pick in 2011 and the surprise pick looks well on his way towards being a bust. Injuries have limited him to 352 snaps in 2 seasons and he didn’t play well at all during those snaps and he’s already been moved inside to guard from right tackle, where he was originally supposed to bookend Okung.

Sweezy, meanwhile, saw 311 snaps last season as a 7^th round rookie who played defensive tackle the year before at NC State and he played about as well as you would expect, grading out 71st out of 81 eligible guards despite the limited playing time. John Schneider and Pete Carroll have made a lot of smart decisions, but I have to make fun of them for that one. Sweezy said he hadn’t played offensive line since middle school. How did they decide to convert him to offensive line? Did they watch his middle school tape?

Moffitt, a 3^rd round pick from that same draft as Carpenter, has been absolutely awful thus far in his career, grading out as the 3^rd worst guard in 2011 despite playing just half the snaps. He was only slightly better in 2012. Carpenter will get the first crack at being the starting left guard, but it looks like a position of major weakness, much like right guard and right tackle.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

As I mentioned, Chris Clemons tore his ACL in the playoff win over Washington. He’s a very strong candidate to start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list as he’ll be just 8 months removed from the injury week 1. That would cost him 6 games and even when he returns, it’s hard to imagine the 32-year-old playing as many snaps per game as he did last season, especially with Cliff Avril being added to the mix.

An absolute steal in a trade from Philadelphia (he arrived as a throw-in in a deal that send Darryl Tapp to the Eagles for a 4^th rounder), Clemons has been a top-11 4-3 defensive end on ProFootballFocus in all 3 seasons as a starter with the Seahawks, playing the Leo role in Pete Carroll’s defense. Last season, he had his worst season with the Seahawks, grading out “just” 11^th overall at his position, though 4^th in terms of rushing the passer with 11 sacks, 11 hits, and 37 hurries on 511 pass rush snaps, a 11.5% pass rush rate. However, his poor run grade (5^th worst at his position) hurt his grade. He’ll see mostly pass rush snaps this season when he does play.

Clemons not being at 100% will hurt, but, as I mentioned, the Seahawks did add Cliff Avril to the mix this off-season. Avril is undersized, but was a natural fit in a wide nine scheme in Detroit and is a perfect fit for the Leo role in Seattle. He’s not the same pass rusher Clemons is when healthy, grading out well above average, above average, and average in the last 3 seasons in that aspect, and he also struggles against the run as well. He might be at his best and most efficient when he doesn’t play a full set of snaps (like he did in 2010, his best season, when he played 649 snaps), which is good because the Seahawks do have a lot of defensive end depth, especially when Clemons returns.

On the other side, Red Bryant will start in base packages. Bryant doesn’t get any pass rush, but that’s not what he’s out there for. He’s out there to hold down the edge against the run and he usually does a great job of that. However, last season he actually graded out below average in that aspect and because of his poor pass rush ability (0 sacks, 0 hits, and 11 hurries on 343 pass rush snaps, 3.2% pass rush rate), he was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd lowest ranked 4-3 defensive end, despite playing just 641 snaps. That’s part of the reason why the Seahawks ranked 23^rd in YPC allowed. He played through a foot injury all season though, so maybe he’ll bounce back. He did get off to a great start to the season in the first 3 weeks of the season.

In sub packages, Bruce Irvin will continue to come in and rush the passer. A surprise pick as the 15^th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, Irvin had 10 sacks as a rookie as a part time player. However, he wasn’t as good as that would suggest. To go with those 10 sacks, he had just 12 hits and 20 hurries on 344 pass rush snaps, an impressive 12.2% rate, but not as impressive as 10 sacks as a part-time player would suggest. He graded out above average as a pass rusher, but struggled against the run, grading out average overall. He especially struggled against the run in his one start against Atlanta, with Chris Clemons out. Michael Turner, who hadn’t done anything all year, trampled the Seahawks for 98 yards on 14 carries and Irvin was a big part of the reason why.

He must have proved to the coaching staff that he could never be a starter on the defensive line because the Seahawks converted him to linebacker this off-season. He’ll play the Von Miller role, playing the run as a two-down linebacker on running downs in base packages and then moving to the line to rush the passer as a defensive end in sub packages. It’s a better role for his skill set, but it could take him a little bit to adjust to playing linebacker and he’s also suspended for the first 4 games of the season for Adderall.

With Irvin and Clemons out early in the season, free agent acquisition Michael Bennett will probably play more end early in the season, though he was signed to be a situational rusher at defensive tackle, coming over from Tampa Bay. Bennett is incredibly versatile and well rounded, lining up at two positions (end and tackle) with the Buccaneers and grading out well above average both against the run and as a pass rusher.

In 2011, he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 7th rated 4-3 defensive end in a more limited role, excelling against the run at 6-4 274, but also accumulating 4 sacks, 6 hits, and 28 hurries on 338 pass rush snaps, a 11.2% pass rush rate. In 2012, he led the Tampa Bay defensive line in snaps, grading out 7^th among 4-3 defensive ends again. Along with Cameron Wake and Greg Hardy, he was one of three 4-3 defensive ends to grade out in the top-10 as a run stopper and pass rusher and he accumulated 9 sacks, 14 hits, and 48 hurries on 600 pass rush snaps, a 11.8% pass rush rate.

Along with him at defensive tackle, the Seahawks have Tony McDaniel and Brandon Mebane. Mebane is a consistently above average starter who can rush the passer and stop the run. He’ll lead the position in snaps. McDaniel will take over Alan Branch’s old run stuffing role. Branch was a one dimensional player, but exceled in that role, topping out as ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked run stopping defensive tackle in 2011. McDaniel, a mediocre career backup, won’t do as well. He’ll face competition from Clinton McDonald, another career backup, and Jaye Howard, a 2012 4^th round pick who played just 22 snaps as a rookie.

Grade: B

Linebackers

As I mentioned, Bruce Irvin will be moving to linebacker and playing the 3^rd linebacker role in base packages, a role vacated by veteran LeRoy Hill, who did alright in that role last season. In the 4 games Irvin will miss with suspension, Malcolm Smith will start in that role. The 2011 7^th round pick has flashed in 236 career snaps in reserve, but he’s still a mystery. Fortunately, it’s not that important of a position.

KJ Wright and Bobby Wagner will continue to play the every down linebacker roles. Wright graded out above average in his first season in that role and the 2011 4^th round pick also played well in the two-down linebacker role as a rookie. Wagner, meanwhile, played incredibly well as a 2^nd round rookie last season, grading out 2^nd on ProFootballFocus among middle linebackers. He finished 2^nd in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting behind Luke Kuechly and actually played better than Luke Kuechly at the same position. The Seahawks are in good hands with these two young every down linebackers.

Grade: A-

[yard_barker]

Secondary

I mentioned Richard Sherman in the opening. After Russell Wilson, he’s their most indispensible player. In his 2^nd year in the league, the 2011 5^th round pick allowed 41 catches on 87 attempts for 634 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, while deflecting 14 passes and committing 5 penalties. He was ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd ranked cornerback last season and, though he ranked below average against the run, he was by far their top cover cornerback. He might not pick off 8 passes again, but as I mentioned, that won’t necessarily mean he has a worse season. He played well as a rookie as well, grading 16^th in more limited action and the 25-year-old might not have peaked yet. He’s arguably the top cornerback in the NFL. Darrelle Revis is more proven and has had better seasons than Sherman had last year, but he’s also coming off a torn ACL and 3 years older.

Brandon Browner does a solid job opposite him, grading out 22^nd among cornerbacks, allowing 34 catches on 63 attempts for 421 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 7 penalties and missing 4 games with suspension. He improved over a solid first season in the league in 2011, coming over from the CFL, and he’s a young and very capable #2 cornerback opposite Sherman. Opposing quarterbacks will probably throw away from Sherman more this season and Browner looks like he can hold up to extra attention.

They might be the best outside cornerback duo in the NFL and they added arguably the best slot cornerback in the NFL this off-season, signing Antoine Winfield from Minnesota. Winfield was actually ProFootballFocus’ top ranked cornerback last season, though he wasn’t quite as good as that would suggest. A lot of that was run grade as he was by far the best run stopping cornerback in the league, but he only ranked 19^th in coverage grade, allowing 60 catches on 90 attempts for 575 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 6 passes and committing 2 penalties. He also didn’t cover much downfield and he’s going into his age 36 season with a recent history of injury problems, missing 17 games in the last 4 seasons combined.

However, he’ll be a natural fit as a part time player on the slot. He ranked 13^th in the NFL in slot coverage QB rating allowed last season. He’s a great fit for the Seahawks physical man-to-man coverage scheme as well and, of course, he’ll help stuff the run. He’ll be a sizeable upgrade on the Marcus Trufant/Jeremy Lane/Byron Maxwell/Walter Thummond quartet who were their primary depth cornerbacks last season.

The Seahawks also have a great pair of safeties who complement each other well, with Kam Chancellor playing up closer to the box, playing 54.4% of his snaps within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage, 7^th in the NFL among eligible safeties, and Earl Thomas serving as the deep center field safety. Chancellor, a 2010 5^th round pick, is one of the biggest safeties in the NFL at 6-3 232. He didn’t play as well in 2012 as he did in his breakout 2011 season, when he was ProFootballFocus’ 5^th ranked safety, as he ranked 21^st in 2012, but he is one of the top-10 or so safeties in the NFL.

Thomas, meanwhile, is just a little bit behind that. He’s a little overrated because of his tendency to take bad routes to the ball and miss tackles (17 missed tackles last season, 4^th in the NFL, and 29 in the last 2 seasons), but he was ProFootballFocus’ 8^th ranked safety in 2012 and their 34^th ranked in 2011. He’s clearly an above average safety though and they have one of the best safeties duos in the NFL. This might overall be the best secondary in the NFL. They ranked 3^rd in the NFL allowing 6.2 YPA last season, ranking 1^st in coverage grade on ProFootballFocus, and they could be even better this season.

Grade: A

Head Coach

Last season, I said in Seattle’s preview that Pete Carroll doesn’t get his name mentioned enough with the best coaches in the NFL, but he should. Now, a season later, he does. He’s rebuilt this team from a 5-11 veteran team to an 11-5 exciting, young team in 3 seasons (going 25-23 and winning 2 playoff games). Along with GM John Schneider, he’s discovered and developed a ton of young talent during his time with the Seahawks.

Chris Clemons was a situational player who he turned into one of the better pass rushers in the league. KJ Wright and Richard Sherman were 4th and 5th round picks respectively in 2011. Brandon Browner was in the CFL. He got Marshawn Lynch for a 4th round pick. Kam Chancellor was a 5th round pick. Bobby Wagner was a 2^nd round pick. Russell Wilson was a 3^rd round pick. Russell Okung and Earl Thomas were 1^st round picks, but they’ve also developed into top level players. He also did a fantastic job at the collegiate level at USC.

Grade: A-

Overall

As I mentioned in the opening, with their home field advantage factored in, this might be the most talented team in the NFL, but they only get 8 home games and they could have a hard time winning more than 3 or 4 of their tough road games. They could once again run the table at home and still not win the division and have to go on the road throughout the post-season.

I have them going 4-2 in the division, splitting with San Francisco and dropping one in either St. Louis or Arizona, nationally televised games in places they lost last season. Outside of the division, they host Jacksonville, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and New Orleans and they shouldn’t have much problem winning all 5 of those games. They also go to Carolina, Indianapolis, Houston, Atlanta, and New York. That’s three 2012 playoff teams, a Giants team that won 9 games last season, and 2013 sleeper in Carolina, and 4 of those games are on the East Coast at 1 PM ET. They should lose about 3 of those games, to put them at 11-5 for the 2^nd straight season.

Projection: 11-5 2^nd in NFC West

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St. Louis 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

July 24, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Rams, Uncategorized

QB Sam Bradford (St. Louis)

After an ankle injury limited to 10 games in his 2nd season in the league in 2011, Bradford bounced back from in his 3rd year in the league, playing all 16 games again and improving on his rookie numbers by throwing for 3702 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. With the addition of Jake Long, Tavon Austin, and Jared Cook around him, he looks poised to exceed all of those career highs in his 4th year in the league. There’s a lot of uncertainty with him, but he’s a high upside QB2.

Projection: 3850 passing yards 22 touchdowns 12 interceptions 100 rushing yards 1 touchdown (234 pts standard, 278 pts 6 pt td league)

RB Daryl Richardson (St. Louis)

8/20/13: Daryl Richardson has been named the starting running back of the St. Louis Rams. He shouldn’t feel too comfortable as Isaiah Pead and/or Zac Stacy could both steal carries and even starts from him this season, but he gets moved up. Steven Jackson’s primary running back, Richardson rushed for 475 yards on 95 carries and also caught 24 passes for 163 yards. He’s a solid bet to go over 200 touches. Pead will be the change of pace back. There’s still an opportunity for Zac Stacy to eventually become a starter at some point this season if the unproven players above him on the depth chart don’t impress, but he’s not really worth drafting. He might be a nice late season waiver wire pickup if anything.

The Rams have a 3 way battle for the starting running back job and all 3 should see carries. You shouldn’t use a high pick on any of them unless one starts to run away with the job. They’re all draftable though. I consider Richardson the favorite. He was Jackson’s primary backup last season, rushing for 475 yards on 98 carries, while contributing 24 catches for 163 yards. The 7th round rookie leapfrogged 2nd round rookie Isaiah Pead on the depth chart for that job.

Projection: 180 carries for 790 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 35 catches for 250 receiving yards (140 pts standard, 175 pts PPR)

RB Isaiah Pead (St. Louis)

Pead is my 3rd favorite running back in St. Louis’ backfield. He’s draftable, but he had just 10 carries as a rookie. The 2nd rounder has talent and I’m not going to write him off or anything, but it’s certainly been a disappointing start to the career of a player who I thought was overdrafted (he’s a change of pace/passing catching back/return man).

Projection: 100 carries for 430 rushing yards 3 total touchdowns 18 catches for 130 receiving yards (74 pts standard, 92 pts PPR)

WR Chris Givens (St. Louis)

I think Givens will actually lead this receiving corps in yardage. As a mere rookie, Givens led the Rams’ nondescript receiving corps with 698 yards and caught 42 passes and 3 touchdowns. In his 2nd year in the league, he should be able to improve on them as he’s another year matured and another year more comfortable with the offense and Sam Bradford, especially since he figures to play more snaps. He averaged 1.90 yards per route run, 25th in the league out of 82 eligible wide receivers. This year, with Brandon Gibson and the oft injured Danny Amendola gone, Givens is by far the team’s leading returning receiver. Unlike the new batch of receivers, he has a year of experience in the offense and with Sam Bradford.

Projection: 56 catches for 820 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns (112 pts standard, 168 pts PPR)

WR Tavon Austin (St. Louis)

Tavon Austin is overrated in fantasy circles. He’s just a rookie. Since 2005, 28 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 40 catches for 557 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Austin will do some nice things as a rookie and they’ll line him up in the backfield on occasion to get him his touches, but I think he’s at least a year away from being the type of player a lot of people think he already is. He might not even start as a rookie, focusing on the slot

Projection: 39 catches for 650 receiving yards and 5 total touchdowns, 20 carries for 150 rushing yards (110 pts standard, 149 pts PPR)

TE Jared Cook (St. Louis)

Jared Cook was underutilized in Tennessee and put up good per snap numbers as a receiver despite never really having great quarterback play. He has 1718 career receiving yards on 1057 career routes run, a rate of 1.63 yards per route run. For comparison, Owen Daniels had 1.63 yards per route run this season, good for 11th in the NFL. However, he doesn’t block, which is a big part of the reason why he was only a part-time player in Tennessee and he’s still relatively unproven. The Rams are paying a lot of money to find out if he can be an elite tight end in the right situation. They’ll give him every opportunity to live up to his contract, but I don’t think he will.

Projection: 45 catches for 700 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns (100 pts standard, 145 pts PPR)

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St. Louis Rams 2013 NFL Season Preview

July 24, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Rams, Uncategorized

Introduction

Football is a game of parity. A team sees an average change of 3 wins per season in either direction and teams that have big improvements on average regress about half of that the following season and vice versa. The Rams have been doing quite a bit of bouncing around in the past few years, going from 1 win to 7 wins to 2 wins to 7 wins and a tie. Unfortunately, they haven’t been able to bounce into the playoffs at any point and if history is any indication, they are due to bounce back down, at least a little bit.

There were a couple unsustainable things that led to the Rams’ win improvement last season. They were 6^th in the league in adjusted games lost, meaning they had significantly fewer injuries than the league average. This was a season after they ranked dead last in that category in 2011. They also exceeded their Pythagorean Expectations by a whole win (assuming a half win for the tie) as they were outscored by 49 points on the season and had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6.5 wins, 23^rd in the NFL. They did have a really tough schedule last season, but things don’t look much easier this season.

The Rams will have to hope that all of the talent they’ve added through free agency in the past few off-seasons have paid off and that they will continue climbing the wins ladder because they are legitimately a more talented team. They’ve signed Harvey Dahl, Cortland Finnegan, Scott Wells, Kendall Langford, Jake Long, and Jared Cook to significant contracts in the last 3 off-seasons, to go with Robert Quinn, Michael Brockers, Alec Ogletree, and Tavon Austin added in the first round of the last 3 drafts. Austin, Long, and Cook are the big additions of this off-season as the Rams made surrounding Sam Bradford with more talent the single primary concern of their off-season.

Quarterback

The Rams have a lot tied into Sam Bradford. They gave him 50 million guaranteed before he even took an NFL snap as they took him with #1 pick of the 2010 NFL Draft, the final one of the non-rookie salary cap era. They also essentially traded Robert Griffin in favor of keeping Bradford as their quarterback when they had the opportunity to bring in Griffin through the draft last April. And so far, it’s really unclear what they have in him. There’s reason to be optimistic certainly, but he’s a big mystery.

Bradford had a very good rookie season, completing 60.0% of his passes for an average of 6.0 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions, setting the NFL record for completions by a rookie, attempts by a rookie, and consecutive attempts without an interception by a rookie, leading the previously 1-win Rams to a respectable 7-9 record. However, 2011 was a lost season, as injuries caused him to miss 6 games and limited him to 53.5% completion, 6.1 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in a 2-14 campaign.

Bradford bounced back in his 3^rd year in the league, playing all 16 games again and improving on his rookie numbers by completing 59.5% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in a 7-8-1 season. It was a respectable season by a young quarterback, but when you look at what even younger quarterbacks in Cam Newton, Robert Griffin, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick (technically Kaepernick is 5 days older), Andrew Luck, Matt Stafford, and even Andy Dalton (9 days older, but whatever) have done, Bradford’s young career pales in comparison.

He’s on better footing than Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Mark Sanchez, Blaine Gabbert, and Josh Freeman on the young quarterback totem pole as all 5 of those quarterbacks could lose their starting job this season, but at some point, Bradford will have to start proving he’s the type of guy who can win you a Super Bowl. That season could be this year as he has undoubtedly his most talented offensive supporting cast and you can give him a pass because of the crap he’s played with around him so far, but I need to see it from him first to make sure he’s not just Alex Smith, someone who is good enough to keep his job and that’s it. Needless to say, it’s a huge year for him.

Grade: C+

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

While Bradford has an improved supporting cast this season, I do think the players they brought in are being overrated, at least in terms of what they can add this season. It’s undoubtedly a better group, but there are still issues. For one, 8th overall pick Tavon Austin is still just a rookie. Since 2005, 28 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 40 catches for 557 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Austin will do some nice things as a rookie and they’ll line him up in the backfield on occasion to get him his touches, but I think he’s at least a year away from being the type of player a lot of people think he already is. He might not even start as a rookie.

Austin is competing for a starting job with relative veterans Chris Givens, Austin Pettis, and Brian Quick. Givens is the one I’m actually most excited about and the player I think will lead this team in receiving. He was just a 4^th round pick in 2012, but I had a borderline 2nd round grade on him coming out of Wake Forest, ahead of teammate Quick, a 2^nd rounder in that same class, and ahead of 49er 1st round pick AJ Jenkins. After Kendall Wright, I thought he was the best speed receiver in the class, after a junior season in which he averaged 16.0 yards per catch on 83 catches for 1330 yards and 9 touchdowns. He has adequate size at 5-11 198 with steady hands, great route running ability, and recorded a 4.41 40 at The Combine.

As a rookie, he led the Rams’ nondescript receiving corps with 698 yards and caught 42 passes and 3 touchdowns. What he did as a rookie was not only above average for a rookie receiver, but above average when compared to rookie receivers drafted in the 1st round, as the statistic I mentioned earlier suggests. I don’t have the numbers for the descending rounds, but they are almost definitely lower. Givens, a 4th round rookie, exceeded these first round numbers. In his 2nd year in the league, he should be able to improve on them as he’s another year matured and another year more comfortable with the offense and Sam Bradford, especially since he figures to play more snaps.

Givens didn’t see significant action until week 4 and only played in 386 of the team’s 641 pass snaps, which was 113 less than Brandon Gibson, who led the team. He averaged 1.90 yards per route run, 25th in the league out of 82 eligible wide receivers. This year, with Brandon Gibson and the oft injured Danny Amendola gone, Givens is by far the team’s leading returning receiver. Unlike the new batch of receivers, he has a year of experience in the offense and with Sam Bradford.

Austin Pettis, meanwhile, is actually listed as the other starter right now and that might continue to be the case going into week 1, with the raw Austin focusing on the slot early in his rookie year. Either way, he’ll see a lot of action. The 2011 3^rd round pick is going into the 3^rd season that is so often a breakout year for young receivers, but I don’t know if he has the talent to be more than a marginal starter at best going forward because he really lacks speed, athleticism, and after the catch ability. He’s probably best suited for a depth role. He’s caught 57 passes for 517 yards and 4 touchdowns in his first 2 seasons in the league as a depth possession receiver.

Brian Quick will also see a lot of action as the Rams figure to get all 4 of their young receivers action. Quick was, as I mentioned earlier, a 2^nd round pick as a rookie last year, but he was very much upstaged by the 4^th round pick Givens as a rookie, catching just 11 passes for 156 yards and 2 touchdowns. Still, he’s got a lot of talent and you can never write a talented receiver off after just one season, especially one that was always expected to be a project transitioning from Appalachian State to the NFL. He should be improved this season.

Jared Cook, by default, is the veteran of the group as the aforementioned 3 receivers are all in their 3rd year or younger. There might be too much youth here, especially with a young signal caller under center. Cook was given a 5 year, 38.5 million dollar contract this off-season, with 19 million guaranteed, but that looks like a serious overpay.

Also in the mix at tight end is Lance Kendricks, a 2011 2^nd round pick. He’s not a bad 2^nd string tight end, but he doesn’t complement Cook well because he can’t block at all either. He’s undoubtedly the 2^nd best receiving tight end on their roster, catching 45 passes for 529 yards and 4 touchdowns in his 2^nd season in the league last year, but he could lose playing time to blocking specialist Cory Harkey, a 2012 undrafted free agent who is a solid blocker, but can’t pass catch at all.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

The other big time off-season addition they made was on the offensive line, where they signed Jake Long to a 4-year, 34 million dollar deal with 16 million guaranteed to play left tackle. Long is a household name because he was the 1^st overall pick of the Dolphins in 2008 and because he deservingly made the Pro-Bowl in each of his first 4 seasons in the league. However, after ranking 10^th, 2^nd, and 2^nd on ProFootballFocus in 2008, 2009, and 2010 respectively, injuries helped drop him to 21^st in 2011 and all the way down to right around league average in 2012. There’s a reason the Dolphins didn’t seem too eager to bring him back and why the Rams gave him an extensive physical before signing him. If he can stay healthy, they’re getting a steal, but that’s a big if and this might look like a big overpay in 2 years’ time because of his injury history.

At the very least, Long’s presence on the blindside will allow Rodger Saffold to kick to right tackle. Saffold wasn’t happy about the positional switch earlier this off-season, but has since calmed down and I think it fits his skill set better. He’s been pretty good on the blindside when healthy in his career, though he’s missed 13 games in 3 seasons and been limited in several others with injuries, but I think he could be one of the better right tackles in the league if he were to stay healthy. That’s a big if however for the 2010 2^nd round pick. He’s going into a contract year, so maybe he’ll have a big year. Worst case scenario, he’ll be better than the Jason Smith/Barry Richardson mix they’ve been trotting out there at right tackle in the last few seasons. The lead footed Joe Barksdale is his backup so they’ll be in trouble if he can’t stay healthy.

On the interior of their offensive line, the Rams have two other big money offensive linemen in right guard Harvey Dahl and center Scott Wells. Dahl has been with the Rams for 2 seasons and he’s graded out significantly below average in each of the last 2 seasons. He’s been a reliable above average starter for years dating back to his days with the Falcons and the only concern here is that he’s heading into his age 32 season. It shouldn’t be an issue yet though.

Wells, meanwhile, graded out as an above average center in the previous 4 seasons before coming to St. Louis from Green Bay last off-season, including top-10 grades in 2008, 2010, and 2011, topping out at 4^th in 2011. However, injuries limited him to 434 below average snaps in 2012. There’s definitely potential for a bounce back year, but he’s also going into his age 32 season and, unlike Dahl, he’s shown signs of slipping up so there’s definitely reason for concern here, especially considering they gave him the richest contract ever for a center last off-season.

Rounding out the line at left guard will be one of three players, Chris Williams, Shelley Smith, or Rok Watkins. Chris Williams is a former first round pick (2008) bust of the Chicago Bears who has bounced all over the offensive line before winding up with the Rams last season after being a mid-season cut. He once again struggled with the Rams, playing significantly below average on 88 snaps. Smith, meanwhile, graded out significantly below average on 360 snaps last season in the 2010 6^th round pick’s first real action in the NFL. Watkins, meanwhile, was a 5^th round rookie last season who played 37 snaps week 1, struggling mightily before going on season ending injured reserve. It’s a position of serious weakness on an overall improving offensive line. The talent is there though, more so than it’s ever been in Sam Bradford’s career.

Grade: B

Running Backs

While the Rams have made major additions to their receiving corps and offensive line, they actually had a significant loss at running back as long time bell-cow back Steven Jackson signed with the Atlanta Falcons this off-season. Jackson is on the decline and the Rams didn’t put forth much effort into trying to bring him back, but he leaves behind an uncertain situation. In his absence, the Rams will have a 3-way battle for the starting job and all 3 backs figure to see carries.

Daryl Richardson was Jackson’s primary backup last season, rushing for 475 yards on 98 carries, while contributing 24 catches for 163 yards. The 7^th round rookie leapfrogged 2^nd round rookie Isaiah Pead on the depth chart for that job. Pead is also in the mix at running back this season, after just 10 carries as a rookie. The 2^nd rounder has talent and I’m not going to write him off or anything, but it’s certainly been a disappointing start to the career of a player who I thought was overdrafted (he’s a change of pace/passing catching back/return man). The 3^rd back is 5^th round rookie Zac Stacy who I think could prove to be a steal. The 5-9 210 pounder is a very hard runner. Whatever happens, it’s a position of much youth and uncertainly, much like most of their offense.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

On the defensive line, the Rams have a trio of former 1^st round picks and a big contract free agent signing and it’s a big part of the reason why they had an NFL best 56 sacks last season. However, that’s a little misleading. They were ProFootballFocus’ 17^th ranked pass rush team and while I won’t argue that they were the 17^th best pass rush team in the league last year, looking purely at sack numbers doesn’t tell the whole story.

Their most talented defensive lineman is Chris Long, the 2^nd overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. Long is legitimately one of the best pass rushing defensive linemen in the NFL, with 12 sacks, 9 hits, and 55 hurries on 568 pass rush snaps, a 13.3% rate. However, he got destroyed against the run, which is nothing new for him. Since 2010, he’s been one of the worst run stopping 4-3 defensive ends in the NFL, grading out dead last in that aspect in both 2010 and 2011 and 4^th worst in 2012.

However, he’s simultaneously been one of the best pass rushing defensive linemen in the league since his breakout 2010 season, ranking 7^th in that aspect in 2011 and 4^th in that aspect in both 2010 and 2012. Overall, he’s graded out as a significantly above average defensive lineman in the last 3 seasons, but his run play prevents him from being considered one of the top 4-3 defensive ends in the NFL in my book.

Opposite him, Robert Quinn, the 14^th overall pick in 2011 NFL Draft, had 11 sacks in his first season as a starter. That’s an impressive total, but he benefitted incredibly from Long’s presence opposite him and even with Long, he still managed just 8 hits and 26 hurries on the season on 541 pass rush snaps, a 8.3% rate. You can’t just look at sack numbers because they don’t tell you anything about how long the quarterback held the ball, what kind of blocking the pass rusher faced, and who actually forced the sack. Quinn benefitted from good luck in all 3 of those aspects and was not the pass rusher those 11 sacks suggest. He also got blown up against the run and overall he was ProFootballFocus’ 57^th ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 62 eligible. The former 1^st round pick could be better this season, however.

The Rams also frequently use 3 defensive end sets on passing downs with reserves William Hayes and Eugene Sims coming into the game on passing downs. Sims struggled mightily to get pass rush with 3 sacks, 4 hits, and 4 hurries on 244 pass rush snaps, a pathetic 4.5% rate. Hayes was better, but still pretty average rushing the passer with 7 sacks, 6 hits, and 11 hurries on 225 pass rush snaps, a 10.7% rate. He excelled as a run stuffer though, ranking 5^th among 4-3 defensive ends in that aspect.

The 3^rd former 1^st round pick on the line is Michael Brockers, the 14^th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. Injuries delayed his debut until week 4, but the rookie still started 12 of 13 games upon his return, playing 615 snaps and grading out above average, especially against the run. He should be even better in his 2^nd season in the league as he’s healthy and he doesn’t turn 23 until December. He was really raw coming out of LSU.

Brockers will once again start inside next to Kendall Langford. Langford signed a 4-year, 24 million dollar contract last off-season, but got blown up against the run in his first season playing 4-3 defensive tackle after spending his early career as a 5-technique defensive end in Miami. He rushed the passer alright though, with 4 sacks, 3 hits, and 13 hurries on 411 pass rush snaps, a 4.9% rate. That’s not great for a defensive tackle, but it’s passable. The Rams were obviously counting on more from him when they gave him that contract though, so they’ll have to hope he bounces back. They don’t really have much of another option at the position if he doesn’t as Jermelle Cudjo, a mediocre backup, is their only other experienced player at the position.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Before last season, the Rams signed middle linebacker James Laurinaitis to a 5 year, 41.5 million dollar deal that was a real overpay. Laurinaitis is a great leader on the field and always puts up big tackle numbers, but those tackles are more often filler than substance. Of his 482 total tackles in the last 4 seasons, last than half, 221, were within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage on first down, 6 yards on second down, or the full distance on 3^rd or 4^th down. I’m not saying he’s a bad player, but he’s graded out below average in 3 of his 4 seasons and he’s nowhere near the middle linebacker that Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Daryl Washington, even youngsters Luke Kuechly and Bobby Wagner are. His deal was a serious overpay for a team that’s spent a lot of money in the last few off-seasons and seems headed for salary cap hell.

Laurinaitis will play every down once again, as will 1^st round rookie Alec Ogletree. Ogletree was regarded as having top-10 talent, but fell to the Rams at 30^th overall (after a trade down) because of off the field and work ethic concerns. We’ll have to see how this works out for the Rams, but it was certainly a risk for them. It’s not like it wasn’t a position of need, however.

Jo Lonn Dunbar actually graded out above average as an every down linebacker for them last season, but did so on a very strong run grade (3^rd among 4-3 outside linebackers) and a strong blitzing grade with 5 sacks, 5 hits, and 9 hurries on 135 blitzes (further reason why I think it’s unlikely they match the 56 sacks they had last season). He struggled miserably in coverage, as could be expected from him, grading out worst at his position in that aspect, and he’ll be a much better fit in the 3^rd linebacker spot. He’ll certainly be an upgrade over Rocky McIntosh, who graded out 37^th out of 43 eligible 4-3 outside linebackers in that spot last year despite being a part time player. Jo Lonn Dunbar has a chance to be one of the better two-down linebackers in the NFL. He’ll come off the field on obvious passing downs for an extra defensive back.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Rams spent big money bringing Cortland Finnegan to St. Louis and reuniting him with former Head Coach Jeff Fisher last off-season, but he was largely a disappointment in his first season with the Rams. After grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd ranked cornerback in 2011, he was below average overall in 2012, allowing 77 catches on 105 attempts for 747 yards, though he didn’t allow a touchdown and had 3 interceptions. He also just deflected 3 passes and missed 11 tackles, though he was penalized just twice. He’s really been up in down in his career as he ranked 96^th out of 100 eligible in 2010 before that great 2011 season and he was a slightly above average player in both 2008 and 2009. It’s tough to know what to expect from him this season, but a bounce back wouldn’t really surprise me. He covers the slot in 3-cornerback sets, in addition to starting and covering #1 receivers.

The other starter for the Rams is Janoris Jenkins, a 2012 2^nd round pick. Jenkins kept his nose clean in his first season in the NFL as off the field issues got him kicked off the Florida team and dropped him to the 2^nd round after he transferred to North Alabama. He did some good things and some bad things on the field as a rookie. He scored 3 times on interception returns, though his overall total of 4 interceptions isn’t particularly impressive. However, he also missed a position leading 18 tackles and allowed 66 catches on 107 attempts for 715 yards and 5 touchdowns, while deflecting 10 passes and committing 2 penalties to go with those 4 interceptions. Overall, he graded out below average, ranking 101^st out of 113 eligible cornerbacks as a rookie, but he should be more consistent in his 2^nd season in the league.

Trumaine Johnson is also a 2^nd year defensive back. He’ll be the 3^rd cornerback and play outside with Jenkins when Finnegan moves to the slot. Johnson took over that role about halfway through last season from veteran Bradley Fletcher and played extremely well on 366 snaps, making 3 starts. Despite the limited playing time, Johnson was ProFootballFocus’ 25^th ranked cornerback, allowing 22 catches on 42 attempts for 308 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and not committing a penalty. The big 6-2 205 pounder also played the run well. He was a 3^rd round pick last April, but not for lack of talent. The Montana product also had off the field issues. He’ll see more playing time in his 2^nd season in the league and could really show himself as one of the better #3 cornerbacks in the league and set himself up for a future starting job.

It’s possibly Johnson’s future as a starter could be at safety, considering his size and the fact that the Rams have much bigger holes at safety than cornerback. In fact, they might have the worst safety duo in the NFL. Craig Dahl and Quentin Mikell do not return as starters. Dahl won’t be missed that much because he was one of the worst safeties in the league last season, but Mikell was still an above average starter, playing the run well and showing himself to be an exceptional blitzer (3 sacks, 2 hits, and 9 hurries on 65 blitzes).

In their absence, the Rams will start Darian Stewart and TJ McDonald. Stewart was one of the worst starting safeties in the NFL in 2011, grading out 83^rd out of 87 eligible before seeing just 82 snaps as a pure reserve in 2012. Rams fans shouldn’t be excited to see him back in the starting lineup after he missed 20 tackles in 2011. McDonald, meanwhile, is a mere 3^rd round rookie and he was a reach at that. The next Taylor Mays, the USC product has great speed and size (6-2 219, 4.59 40), but he’s a penalty prone, undisciplined tackler who can’t cover. Both of their safeties will be exposed early and often.

Grade: B-

Head Coach

Jeff Fisher was out of the league in 2011 after being fired by the Tennessee Titans, but he remains a solid Head Coach. He held out for the right opportunity and was a hot commodity on the open market last offseason, deciding on St. Louis over Miami. He finished with a 142-120 record over 16+ seasons in Tennessee and was the longest tenured Head Coach in the league when he was finally fired. In his 16 full seasons, he’s finished at .500 or above 11 times. He made the playoffs 6 times, finishing 5-6 with one trip to the Super Bowl in 1999. In his first season with the Rams in 2011, he took them from 2-14 to 7-8-1 and has made them a competitive young team.

Grade: B

Overall

The Rams are undoubtedly a more talented team this season, but they would have probably seen another bounce down (at least a few games) this season if they hadn’t added the extra talent. I just have a hard time seeing them improve on last year’s record in the loaded NFC. They have talent, but they’re not a great team or anything and you look at the rest of the NFC, I don’t know if there’s a single NFC team that you can say, they’re definitely worse than the Rams. Someone has to lose all those games. I’m not saying they’ll lose a ton of games, but it’s more likely they go 4-12 than make the playoffs. Overall, I have them somewhere in between and making a small bounce back down wins wise. They’ll be a pesky opponent for playoff caliber teams though, as they’ve proven with wins over Seattle, Washington, and San Francisco last year that they can pull upsets.

That being said, they’ll be lucky to win one game against San Francisco and Seattle this year. Both of those teams are just significantly more talented. I’ll give them one and a season split with Arizona for a 2-4 divisional record. Outside the division, they host Jacksonville, Tennessee, Chicago, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay. Jacksonville and Tennessee should be pretty easy wins and they could pull an upset over New Orleans, a poor road team. Chicago and Tampa Bay won’t be unwinnable either, so I have them at 3-2 in those 5 games. However, trips to Dallas, Atlanta, Houston, Carolina, and Indianapolis will be tough. They’ll be lucky to win one of those games

Projection: 6-10 3^rd in NFC West

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Arizona Cardinals 2013 NFL Season Preview

July 23, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Cardinals, Uncategorized

Introduction

When a team has a pre-season over/under win total of 6 or less, the over actually hits roughly 2/3rds of the time. It makes sense. The NFL is a parity filled league in which teams’ win totals change an average of 3 games per season. Teams that were bad the previous season, which are usually the teams with low over/unders, are usually not quite as bad the following season (and vice versa). This season, only three teams have pre-season over/under win totals of 6 or less, Jacksonville, Oakland, and Arizona.

Jacksonville and Oakland make sense. They had 2 of the top-3 picks in the draft last season, winning 6 games between them last season (Jacksonville, 2, Oakland, 4), but Arizona won 5 games last season and, unlike Jacksonville and Oakland, they seem significantly improved overall this season as compared to last season. I don’t love going over the 5.5 number on any of those 3 teams, but Arizona is the only team I would consider putting money on, which, given history, isn’t a bad idea.

The Cardinals’ largely return the same roster from last season, but they are significantly improved at two crucial spots, quarterback and Head Coach. Ken Whisenhunt wasn’t a bad coach at all, but, despite trying a ton of different quarterbacks, the only one the supposed offensive genius had success with was Kurt Warner, who took them to a Super Bowl.

New Head Coach Bruce Arians, meanwhile, was probably the best Head Coaching hire of the off-season. It’s rare that someone like Arians is available on the Head Coaching market and it took a special set of circumstances. Arians was actually the Coach of the Year last season in Indianapolis, taking over for the cancer stricken Chuck Pagano after week 3 and guiding the Colts to a playoff berth and the 2^nd biggest single season turnaround in NFL history. The only reason he was available was because Pagano is in remission and set to take over as Head Coach once again. He was the only option on the market who wasn’t completely inexperienced or a retread who had recently been fired.

Prior to taking over as Interim Head Coach of the Colts last season, Arians was the offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh, where he guided many successful offenses (including a Super Bowl victory) in 5 seasons in that role. In Indianapolis, his work with rookie Andrew Luck and the Colts’ young offense was noticeable and he also demonstrated incredible leadership in very troubling times. If anyone can get the Cardinals’ stagnant offense off the ground, it’s Bruce Arians.

Stagnant might be too nice of a term. In 3 seasons since Kurt Warner retired, the Cardinals have scored 18.1 points per game (26^th), 19.5 points per game (24^th), and last season a pathetic 15.6 points per game (31^st). Last season, they ranked dead last in the NFL in yards per attempt (5.6) and yards per carry (3.4), while allowing a league leading 58 sacks. That’s the stagnant offense trifecta. Their leading passer had 1169 passing yards and their leading rusher had 356 rushing yards. The last team to average fewer than the 4.1 yards per play they averaged last season was the 2008 Cincinnati Bengals and every team in the league averaged at least a half yard more per play than they did last season.

Quarterbacks

Things were probably the worst under center. Kevin Kolb did well to start the season, leading a game winning drive week 1 in relief of an injured John Skelton en route to an improbable 4-0 start. He actually went 4-2 overall in his 6 games, completing 59.6% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, guiding a solid defense (16.2 points per game allowed in those 6 games) and not making a lot of mistakes.

However, when he was lost for the season, things became so bad it was actually really funny unless you were a Cardinals fan. The terrible trio of John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, and Brian Hoyer combined to complete 228 of 425 (53.6%) for 2214 yards (5.2 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions, a quarterback rating of 53.2. You could have put a drunken Derek Anderson or a purple dranked up JaMarcus Russell under center and gotten better production than that trio gave you.

The only game they won the rest of the way required them to get two pick sixes, another interception to start a drive on their opponent’s 3 yard line, and a 4^th down stop deep in their opponent’s territory followed immediately by a 31 yard touchdown run. They gained 196 yards all game. If they had to play another 16 games with that trio under center, I guarantee you they would have not won more than 2 games at best and both of them would have required multiple return touchdowns/acts of God.

John Skelton is now in Cincinnati fighting to make their roster as their 3^rd quarterback. Ryan Lindley remains on the Cardinals’ roster for the moment as the clear 3^rd quarterback. There’s a very small chance the 6^th round rookie from San Diego State was just incredibly overwhelmed being thrust into action like that last season, but if you watch his collegiate tape his accuracy was miserable there as well. Brian Hoyer, the only quarterback of the 3 who looked like he belonged on an NFL roster, is now in Cleveland, competing with Jason Campbell for the backup quarterback job.

Kevin Kolb is also gone as the Cardinals decided they had enough of the overpaid, injury prone quarterback. As I mentioned, the Cardinals also have a new quarterback along with Bruce Arians to help them fix this stagnant offense. Kolb has been replaced with a more durable option in Carson Palmer. Palmer isn’t great by any stretch of the imagination, but he’ll still be a million times better than what they trotted out there in the final 10 games of last season.

The soon to be 34-year-old is what he is at this point in his career and could be on the decline. He is a better fantasy quarterback than real quarterback. In reality, he turns the ball over too much, is too inefficient inside the red zone, and produces too much of his production in garbage time, which is why he was able to throw for 4000 yards with a 85.3 QB rating on a 4-12 team that scored 18.1 points per game last season in Oakland. However, he’ll have a much better group of supporting playmakers (more on that in a minute) and a great offensive minded Head Coach in Bruce Arians who is going to give him a lot of opportunities to make things happen downfield and accumulate yards.

Wide Receivers/Tight End

At the very least, he’ll be able to get the ball to a good group of receivers, which, again, makes him a million times better than what they had last season. You never would have been able to tell from their stats, but this is a very talented receiving corps. Larry Fitzgerald is one of the great receivers of his generation. However, he has sadly never really had great quarterback play, except for those couple Warner years, but he’s always produced. Last year, however, was too much for even him to handle as Arizona’s pathetic quarterback play limited him to 71 catches for 798 yards and a career low 4 touchdowns. From 2005-2011, Fitzgerald averaged 94 catches for 1309 yards and 10 touchdowns per 16 games and he’s only missed 4 games with injury in his career. I expect him to bounce back.

What was lost in Arizona’s miserable 2012 season was that wide receiver Andre Roberts had a breakout year, as so many receivers do in their 3rd year in the league, just no one noticed because his production was limited by the guys throwing him the ball. Roberts’ 64 catches for 759 yards and 5 touchdowns not only were all career highs, but they are pretty close to what Larry Fitzgerald produced and he did so on 40 fewer targets and 80 fewer pass snaps. Like the rest of this Arizona receiving corps, Roberts will benefit from improved quarterback play. He’ll probably rotate snaps in 2-wide sets with promising 2nd year Michael Floyd, but there will be enough 3-wide sets and enough yards to go around for both young receivers to get on the field.

Michael Floyd is the really exciting one. Floyd was a 1st round pick of the Arizona Cardinals last year, taken with the 13th pick at the urging of Larry Fitzgerald, who felt that Floyd could be what Anquan Boldin once was, someone to take the bracket coverage off of Fitzgerald. However, because of this fantasy football centric/immediate results world we live in, Floyd was seen as largely a disappointment.

However, when you look at history, there is nothing disappointing about his rookie year. Receivers, even 1st round picks, take at least a year to come around. Since 2005, 28 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 40 catches for 557 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Floyd’s 45 catches for 562 yards and 2 touchdowns are actually right in line with that and he got better as the season went on, catching 32 passes for 435 yards and a touchdown in his final 8 games, culminating in a 8 catch for 166 yards and a touchdown performance week 17.

Plus, he did that despite some of the worst quarterbacking in the NFL. It’s no surprise that Floyd’s big game week 17 came in the first game he played serious snaps with even a legitimate NFL backup caliber quarterback under center in Brian Hoyer, who went 19 of 34 for 225 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. He and Palmer should be able to hook up for some good production, as he figures to see plenty of single coverage. He could have a breakout year as a complement opposite Larry Fitzgerald.

Rob Housler, meanwhile, is the tight end. Housler caught 45 passes for 417 yards last year, which isn’t much, but again, consider who the Cardinals’ quarterbacks were. His 1.07 yards per route run were just a touch under Larry Fitzgerald’s 1.18. With a legitimate quarterback under center now, heading into his 3rd year in the league, the athletic 2011 3rd round pick could have a breakout year and establish himself as a solid pass catching tight end. He doesn’t block much though. Jeff King, the blocking tight end, will continue to come in during two-tight end sets. It’s a highly underrated receiving corps and at the very least, Carson Palmer should be able to let that show.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Things are not as good at running back and on the offensive line as they are in the receiving corps, but they should be improved over last season at the very least. As I mentioned in the opening, the Cardinals ranked dead last in the NFL rushing for 3.4 yards per carry and didn’t have a rusher go for more than 356 yards. They had optimism going into the season with 2009 1^st round pick Beanie Wells and 2011 2^nd round pick Ryan Williams. Wells was coming off a breakout 245/1047/10 season from the year before and Williams was set to return after missing his rookie year with injury.

However, both struggled immensely. Wells averaged 2.7 yard per carry coming off off-season knee surgery and Williams averaged just 2.8 yards per carry, coming off his own injury problems. Williams went down for the season with a shoulder injury after week 5 and Wells missed 8 games of his own with injury before coming back and continuing to struggle. He famously said before the final game of the season that he was auditioning for the other 31 teams in that game. He didn’t see the field at all, putting himself in Ken Whisenhunt’s doghouse with his comments and this off-season he was cut. He remains a free agent at still 24 years old this off-season (25 in August). All of this led to way too much of Alfonso Smith (3.6 yards per carry on 60 carries) and LaRod Stephens-Howling (3.2 yards per carry on 110 carries) in Arizona’s backfield.

Williams is set to return this season. Injuries have limited him to 58 carries in his first 2 years in the league. Throw in an injury riddled final season at Virginia Tech in 2010 and you’ve got the definition of an injury risk. He clearly came back too early from his torn patellar tendon last year, before that unrelated shoulder injury ended his season. At this point, his knee is probably as good as it’s going to get and he’s still a talented back with plenty of opportunity (at only 23 years of age) in Arizona’s backfield if he can prove himself, but he might be damaged goods at this point.

Williams will compete for lead back duties and split carries with Rashard Mendenhall. Mendenhall, a 1^st round pick of the Steelers’ in 2008, rushed for 3309 yards and 29 touchdowns in three seasons as the starter in Pittsburgh, but he wasn’t as good as those numbers would suggest. He was largely a volume rusher, with 794 carries in those 3 seasons, an average of just 4.2 yards per carry and even that had a lot to do with his surrounding offensive talent. He also contributes very little on passing downs, with just 66 catches in those 3 seasons. Last season, a torn ACL suffered in January limited him to 51 carries for 182 yards.

However, he’s another year removed from that injury this year and he reunites with former offensive coordinator Bruce Arians and there’s some bounce back potential here. Williams has by far the most upside though. I expect Mendenhall to handle most of the early down work and Williams to serve as a change of pace and passing downs back, at least early in the season. The two of them don’t make a particularly impressive running back committee, but they should, at the very least, be an upgrade over the mess they had at running back last season.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

Things on the offensive line are very similar to how they are at running back, not good, but not as bad as they were last season. I mentioned the league leading 58 sacks allowed last season. Things weren’t actually as bad as that made it seem. When hits and hurries are factored into the equation in a measure known as pass block efficiency, they actually ranked 30^th in the NFL (though they were ProFootballFocus’ worst rated pass blocking offense). That’s not good, but it’s a little bit better than dead last.

On top of that, while their starting offensive tackles surrendered 25 sacks in the first 8 games of the season (more than double any other starting tackles in the NFL at that point in the season), they surrendered just 7 in the final 8 games of the season. What happened? Well, for one, turnstile D’Anthony Baptiste, who allowed 12 sacks in those first 8 games, got benched for 7^th round rookie Nate Potter and played just 75 snaps the rest of the way. Despite his limited playing time, Baptiste still managed to grade out as ProFootballFocus’ 79^th ranked offensive tackle out of 80 eligible.

Potter wasn’t great or anything, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 67^th ranked offensive tackle in his limited time, but he wasn’t as bad as Baptiste, allowing just 7 sacks. The 2012 7^th round pick could be better in his 2^nd season in the league. He’ll compete with Levi Brown, who is returning from a triceps injury that cost him all of 2012.

Brown isn’t good or anything, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 6^th worst rated offensive tackle in 2009 and worst rated offensive tackle in 2010, but he did show signs down the stretch in 2011 before getting hurt, grading out 57^th out of 76 eligible for the season and allowing just 2 sacks in his final 7 games of the season, grading out positively in all 7. At the very least, he’s a good run blocker and he’s not D’Anthony Baptiste, though he’s nowhere near the “elite” left tackle Bruce Arians is trying to sell him to the media as.

Meanwhile, at right tackle, Bobby Massie somehow didn’t give up a single sack from their 9^th game of the season on, after allowing 13 sacks in the first 8 games of the season, including 6 sacks in one game against St. Louis week 5. The 4^th round rookie just hit his stride and though he still graded out as ProFootballFocus 72^nd ranked offensive tackle, he graded out alright against the run overall and really improved in pass protection down the stretch. In his 2^nd season in the league, he might actually be an above average right tackle. He unfortunately doesn’t have the foot speed to ever be considered a legitimate candidate to move to the blindside.

The developmental of Massie and Potter, as well as the return of Levi Brown, made the Cardinals not feel the need to draft an offensive tackle in the 1^st round this off-season. That might not have been the worst idea considering they would have had to reach for one at 7^th overall, though they should have really added one at some point. Instead, they used that pick to shore up the inside of their offensive line, drafting Jonathan Cooper out of North Carolina.

That was the first time a true interior offensive lineman had been drafted above 15^th overall in 15 years, but it wasn’t a bad move. They needed the guard help and it was a historically poor draft in terms of top level talent. Cooper is one of the best guard prospects in a long time and might have more Pro-Bowl potential than any player in the entire draft even if he is just a guard. The Titans made a similar move 3 picks later, taking Chance Warmack from Alabama.

Cooper will slot in immediately at his natural spot at left guard and it would not surprise me if he was a very good starter in his first year in the league. Cooper will move Daryn Colledge to right guard. Colledge isn’t a bad player or anything, but it makes more sense to play Cooper in his natural spot. Colledge is a marginal at best starter who will compete with intriguing 4^th round rookie Earl Watford for the starting right guard job. Watford has generated a lot of buzz this off-season, but the transition from James Madison to the NFL might be too much for him to win the starting job as a rookie. They’d be better off going with the veteran.

Meanwhile, at center, Lyle Sendlein will return from a season ending torn MCL. He too is a marginal starter, though he’s a well-regarded captain of this offensive line and a great locker room guy. Overall, it’s not a great offensive line and they still lack at the all-important left tackle position, but they should be better than they were last season.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

As I said in the opening, the Cardinals’ defense only allowed 16.2 points per game in the first 6 games of the season. That wasn’t totally a fluke. The previous season, they allowed 18.3 points per game in their final 9 games. That’s a solid 15 game stretch where they were allowing in the teens in terms of points per game. They did allow 26.0 points per game in the final 10 games of the season, but you can blame the offense’s inability to stay on the field and to establish good field position for that. In terms of defensive DVOA, they ranked 6^th last season (but dead last offensively).

However, there are several reasons why I don’t think they’ll play quite that well this season, the most prominent being the uncertainty of middle linebacker Daryl Washington with off the field issues, which I’ll get into later. Washington is one of 3 big time building blocks for this season, one in each level of the defense and without him, things just aren’t the same.

On the defensive line, the building block is Calais Campbell. Despite missing 3 games with injury last season, he still graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked 3-4 defensive end, behind only JJ Watt and Muhammad Wilkerson. That’s nothing new for him as he graded out 2^nd in 2011, 8^th in 2010, and 4^th in 2009. The 2008 2^nd round pick has emerged as one of the best defensive linemen in football in relative obscurity in Arizona. He’s worth every penny of the 5-year, 55 million dollar contract the Cardinals gave him before the 2012 season, after making him their franchise player. He’s still only going into his age 27 season.

Opposite him, Darnell Dockett used to be a similar kind of player. In 2011, he was ProFootballFocus’ 7^th ranked 3-4 defensive end, but in 2012, he ranked dead last at his position. He spent a lot of time this off-season blaming ex-defensive coordinator Ray Horton’s scheme for that, but Campbell didn’t seem to mind it and Dockett did just fine under Horton the previous season. It’s possible a switch to a more penetrating scheme under new defensive coordinator Todd Bowles will revitalize him and he is a better fit for a scheme that allows him to move around, rather than plugging two gaps, but it’s also possible that going into his age 32 season, his best days are behind him.

At nose tackle, the Cardinals have 2010 1^st round pick Dan Williams. Williams hasn’t been a bad player in his first 3 seasons in the league, but he hasn’t been able to be much more than a part-time player and a pure two-down nose tackle. He stops the run well, but little else and he’s also had weight and conditioning problems that have earned him a spot in former coaches’ doghouses. Going into his 4^th season in the league, he may be counted on to play a new career high in snaps (right now it’s 428) and play more passing downs and rush the passer with Dockett on the decline. We’ll see if he can handle it. David Carter is another option. The 2011 6^th round pick has been solid in reserve the last 2 seasons.

Grade: B

Linebackers

As I mentioned earlier, stud middle linebacker Daryl Washington has a laundry list of off the field problems. Washington is already suspended for the first 4 games of the season in violation of the league’s substance abuse policy, but he could be facing additional games as his domestic assault case plays out in court. He’s been working with the 2^nd team defense this off-season and while he’ll probably regain a starting job whenever he returns, it’s a clear message that he’s walking a thin line.

In his absence, Karlos Dansby and Kevin Minter will be the starters. Minter is a 2^nd round rookie so we’ll see what he has. Dansby, meanwhile, returns to Arizona after 3 seasons in Miami. He’s a versatile player who can play 4-3 middle linebacker, 4-3 outside linebacker, and 3-4 inside linebacker, which will be his primary position in Arizona. He graded out above average as ProFootballFocus’ 13^th ranked middle linebacker last season, but he was cut in favor of the younger Dannell Ellerbe and took a while to find a new home. Heading into his age 32 season, we might not be able to expect him to be anything more than an average starter this season.

Certainly, Dansby and Minter will not have anywhere near the kind of impact that Daryl Washington had last season, though it’s good to see that Paris Lenon, who graded out as the 2^nd worst middle linebacker in the league last year, is no longer a starter. Washington was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked middle linebacker last season and the 2010 2^nd round pick is only going into his age 27 season. He excels at pretty much everything, especially stopping the run and blitzing the quarterback. The latter is actually probably where he’ll be missed the most.

No team blitzed their middle linebackers more last season than the Arizona Cardinals, with a rush linebacker usually taking their spot in coverage. It wasn’t just Washington. Washington’s 154 blitz snaps were actually 2^nd at his position behind Lenon (who was not nearly as good). It’s unclear if the Cardinals will continue to do that under new leadership defensively, but as long as Washington is on the field, they’d be stupid not to at least utilize Washington in that manner. He’s much better blitzing than he is in coverage as he had 9 sacks, 4 hits, and 10 hurries on those 154 blitzes. No middle linebacker graded out better blitzing the quarterback and it wasn’t even close. It wasn’t a fluke either as in 2011 he was 2^nd at his position in terms of blitzing grade, with 6 sacks, 5 hits, and 19 hurries on 141 blitzes.

The reason this will probably be where he’s missed most is because they have absolutely no one who can get to the quarterback from the outside. Despite Washington’s strong play as a blitzer and Campbell’s strong play on the defensive line, they still graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 23^rd ranked team in terms of rushing the passer. Even though rushing the passer is not their primary job, Campbell and Washington still combined for 16 of the team’s 39 sacks. They’ll really struggle to get to the quarterback without him.

Sam Acho was ProFootballFocus’ 30^th ranked rush linebacker out of 34 eligible, particularly struggling rushing the passer. O’Brien Schofield, who started just 9 games due to injury, wasn’t much better, ranking 26^th despite limited playing time. The oft injured Schofield is now buried on the depth chart, but not behind anyone they can expect much from. Alex Okafor is a mere 4^th round rookie, while free agent acquisition Lorenzo Alexander is a 30-year-old career backup and special teamer. Even Tim Fugger, a 2^nd year undrafted free agent who didn’t play a snap for the team last season, is ahead of Schofield. It’s not a promising group.

Grade: C+

Secondary

The Cardinals also suffered some off-season losses in the secondary, losing starting safeties Adrian Wilson and Kerry Rhodes. Wilson was a declining player who was benched in sub packages down the stretch, so he won’t be a huge loss, but Kerry Rhodes was actually ProFootballFocus’ 4^th ranked safety last season and he only remains unsigned as of this writing because of his age (31) and asking price.

In their absence, the Cardinals will start Yeremiah Bell and Rashad Johnson. Bell had somewhat of a bounce back year with the Jets last season, grading out just below average, but that was because he rarely played outside of the box. In 2011, with Miami, he was ProFootballFocus’ 74^th ranked safety out of 87 eligible. Heading into his age 35 season, he could be one of the worst starting safeties in the league this season.

3^rd round rookie Tyrann Mathieu would get the first crack of replacing Bell in the starting lineup should he expectedly struggle, though he’s undersized and inexperienced. Johnson, meanwhile, is a below average career backup who saw some action down the stretch in sub packages last season in place of Wilson. The 2009 3^rd round pick played just 115 snaps last season and seems unlikely to be anything more than a marginal starter at best.

Fortunately, the Cardinals should expect an even better season from Patrick Peterson, the building block of their secondary. Peterson is a little overrated right now. That’s not to say he’s not a good player. However, he made the Pro-Bowl as a rookie in 2011 for his return skills and not for his coverage skills, as he graded out 102^nd out of 109 eligible cornerbacks and, while he improved to 18^th in 2012, he still was not deserving of the Pro-Bowl nod he got as a cornerback. However, going into his 3^rd year in the league, he has a chance to breakout as legitimately one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. He has that kind of talent and he’s only 23. It’s unclear if he’ll continue to return punts now that he’s their legitimate #1 cornerback.

Opposite him, however, things are a mess. Incumbent starter William Gay is gone, which isn’t bad because he was ProFootballFocus’ 105^th ranked cornerback out of 113 eligible last season, but replacements Jerraud Powers (81^st) and Antoine Cason (107^th) aren’t much better. They’ll compete for the starting job with 2012 3^rd round pick Jamell Fleming, who graded out below average on 277 snaps as a rookie last year. Javier Arenas, a decent slot cornerback and nothing more, will also be in the mix for snaps on the slot. Whoever wins the #2 and #3 cornerback jobs, they will be positions of weakness.

Calais Campbell and Patrick Peterson are really the only two players on defense who you can expect to be something more than an average starter. Washington belongs in that sentence as well as long as he’s on the field, but that’s a question mark. However, as good as those 3 are, they just have a lot of average at best defensively, which is why I can’t see them being the 6^th best defense in the league like DVOA said they were last year and why I can’t see them allowing in the teens scoring wise even if their offense improves as it should.

Grade: C+

Head Coach

I think I’ve already said everything I can about Bruce Arians. I can’t remember a time when a reigning Coach of the Year switched teams in the off-season. This was absolutely the best hire they could make and it gives them their best chance of turning things around offensively. Even though he has just one year of Head Coaching experience, he excelled in that one year and he excelled as an offensive coordinator as well prior to that.

Grade: B+

Overall

While I expect the Cardinals to surpass their over/under projection of 5.5 wins, it won’t be by much. This is a much improved team, but they play in a loaded conference and an especially loaded division so I don’t see much more than 6 or 7 wins for them. They’ll be lucky to take one from Seattle and San Francisco in those 4 games and lucky to split with St. Louis. They’ll win 1 or 2 divisional games.

Outside of the division, they host Detroit, Carolina, Atlanta, Houston, and Indianapolis. All 5 of those teams might be better than them so they’ll be lucky to get 2 wins out of those 5. So far, I have them at 3 or 4 wins. Fortunately, they have trips to Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Philadelphia, with only a trip to New Orleans appearing unwinnable. They should be able to get another couple of wins there and get to that 6 win total.

Projection: 6-10 4^th in NFC West

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Year: 2013

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