San Francisco 49ers 2013 NFL Season Preview

July 21, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, 49ers, Uncategorized

Introduction

Last off-season, I predicted a down season for the 49ers for a variety of reasons. Teams that have huge jumps in win totals usually regress about half the total the following season (for the 49ers, that would have been 3.5, bringing them down to 9 or 10 wins). Teams that win 13 games like the 49ers did in 2011 on average actually only win around 9.5 games the following season anyway. The 49ers also won those 13 games thanks to virtually no injuries, especially on the defensive side of the ball, an unsustainably good turnover margin of +28, and about 8 or 9 guys on the defensive side of the ball having career best seasons. My theory was that a significantly worse turnover margin, more injuries, and about half of those guys on defense having noticeably worse seasons would bring down the 49ers’ win total.

And I wasn’t completely wrong. The 49ers went from +28 to +9 in turnover margin. Carlos Rogers, Ray McDonald, Justin Smith, and Donte Whitner all had noticeably worse seasons on the defensive side of the ball, as the 49ers gave up roughly 3 points more per game (not a huge difference, but significant). They didn’t have many injuries once again as they somehow managed to go from 8^th in adjusted games lost to 1^st in adjusted games lost. An injury to Justin Smith late in the season did really hurt their defense though, as in the 5 ½ games after he got hurt, they allowed 31.8 points per game. That’s slightly skewed by the fact that, with the exception of a week 17 game against Arizona, they faced all playoff teams in that stretch, including New England, Green Bay, Baltimore, Seattle, and Atlanta, but the injury really did hurt them.

What saved their season was actually another injury, however, as Alex Smith got hurt, allowing Colin Kaepernick to take over under center and make this a better team, in spite of the worsened turnover margin, defensive starter regression, etc. If you look at their respective records, it doesn’t look like Kaepernick really made this a much better team. Alex Smith went 6-2-1 in his 9 starts and, including playoffs, Kaepernick went 7-3. That’s not a noticeable difference, especially considering Smith did go 13-3 the season before. Even when you take into account that Smith was losing his final start to the Rams before Kaepernick came in and salvaged a tie, it still doesn’t look like Kaepernick was a significantly better quarterback just looking at records, but you have to go deeper.

While Smith played 3 eventual playoff teams in his 9 starts, Kaepernick faced 5 playoff teams in his 10 starts. That’s in addition to a game against 10-win Chicago and a trip to New Orleans. In addition, he had to go to Seattle late in the season, while Smith got to face them at home when Russell Wilson was still getting his feet wet. Even though Smith beat Seattle and Kaepernick lost his game to Seattle, they actually scored the same amount of points in those 2 games, 13. Smith also had more defensive support. In the 8 games he started and finished, the defense surrendered 12.9 points per game. In Kaepernick’s 10 starts, the defense allowed 23.5 points per game, largely due to a tougher schedule and Justin Smith’s injury. Smith also had the benefit of a defense that allowed 14.3 points per game in 2011.

How did he manage a similar record to Smith with much less defensively support? Well he led the offense to more points per game, despite a tougher schedule. While Smith led the offense to 23.6 points per game in 2012 and 23.8 points per game in 2011, Kaepernick led them to 28.8 points per game in his 10 starts. He did that despite less support on the ground from Frank Gore, who annually struggles in the 2^nd half of the season. Gore averaged 5.5 yards per carry in the first 8 games of the season, as opposed 4.0 yards per carry in the second 8 games of the regular season, though he did average 5.1 yards per carry in 3 playoff games.

With the schedule toughening, the defense about to start allowing more points, and Gore about to start struggling, the 49ers might have had a tough time making the playoffs had Smith started the 2^nd half of their season, let alone getting to the Super Bowl. Had they not come back in that St. Louis game, they would have been 6-3 after 9 games.

They allowed 20.9 points per game in the final 7 games of the regular season. If they had continued to average around the 23 and a half points per game that Smith was leading them to for the past season and a half (optimistic considering Gore and the strengthed schedule), they probably would have gone 4-3 in those 7 games, putting them at 10-6. Seattle would have won the division and the 49ers would have been battling for the 10-win Bears and the 10-win Vikings for the 2 wild card spots in the NFC. They would have been much less likely to go to the Super Bowl.

If that’s enough to convince you that going from Kaepernick to Smith saved their season, Kaepernick also made throws of much higher difficulty and skill level. ProFootballFocus grades every throw a quarterback makes. In 7 ½ regular season games, Kaepernick graded out with a +12.8 throwing the football (not even taking into account his running ability). That was almost triple Smith’s score of +4.9 in 8 ½ games. In 16 regular season games in 2011, Smith was at +16.6, which fell to +10.4 after two playoff games. Kaepernick got better in the post-season, grading out at +20.0 with the post-season taken into account.

If Gore gets off to another hot start again this season and if the defense bounces back somewhat (I don’t think they’ll allow 23.5 points per game this season), they’re going to be near impossible to beat in the 1^st half of the season and things aren’t going to get much easier for their opponents from there on out. They probably have the most non-quarterback talent in the NFL, even with a torn Achilles ending Michael Crabtree’s season, and now they actually have a top level quarterback who can win without the team needing to dominate the turnover battle.

There are a few concerns: one is the unlikely possibility that defensive coordinators have completely figured Kaepernick from an off-season of watching tape. The second one is more likely, it’s that their injury luck finally runs out (Crabtree’s torn Achilles could be just the start), but even then they should have to talent to compensate. There’s also the possibility that Justin Smith ages in a hurry (or gets hurt). He proved to be their most important defensive player last season. Without him, Aldon Smith and their secondary got completely exposed. They also probably won’t continue to recover 58.5% of their fumbles, though Kaepernick has given this team the ability to win without dominating the turnover battle.

Finally, no team has lost the Super Bowl and come back to win it the following season in over 40 years. No reigning Super Bowl loser has even made the Super Bowl the following season since the early 90s Bills. It’s why I didn’t pick the Patriots last season. Still, I like this team a lot more going into 2013 than I did going in 2012. They should be among the best regular season teams and compete for a 2^nd straight 1^st round bye. And I won’t rule out them breaking that aforementioned trend.

Quarterbacks

I mentioned Colin Kaepernick’s throwing ability in the opening, but that’s only one side of him. He’s also, obviously, a very talented runner, rushing for 568 yards and 6 touchdowns on 75 carries in about 10 ½ games. His versatility is what will make it very hard for teams to adjust to him and he has a very low chance of a sophomore slump for that reason. Also, he has no history of serious injuries and at 6-4 230 he’s very sturdy running in the open field. He led them to 5 more points per game last season than Smith and should continue to lead the 49ers to the high 20s in points per game.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

One player who should have been really helped out by Kaepernick’s presence last season is Frank Gore. Mobile quarterbacks from Tim Tebow to Vince Young to Robert Griffin to Russell Wilson all significantly helped their starting running backs because defenses have to worry about the quarterback’s ability to take off. However, Gore’s tendency to struggle in the 2^nd half of seasons got in the way of that. In 2011, he averaged 4.9 YPC in his first 8 games and 3.6 YPC in his last 8 games, while in 2012, he went from 5.5 YPC to 4.0 YPC.

That makes sense considering Gore’s age as he heads into his age 30 season. The 49ers have drafted a running back in each of the last 3 drafts, adding Kendall Hunter, LaMichael James, and most recently Marcus Lattimore. Lattimore might not see a snap this season because of injury, but with Hunter and James maturing, they should cut into Gore’s touches even more this season, in an attempt to keep him fresher down the stretch.

49ers have cut his touches per game in each of the last 2 years, from 22.6 in 2010 to 18.7 in 2011 to 17.9 in 2012. Expect that number to shrink down even more in 2013 and he’s not as big a part of the passing game under Jim Harbaugh as he used to be, catching 45 passes in the last 2 years combined after averaging 51 per year in the previous 5 years. Colin Kaepernick, who rarely checks down, threw to him even less, as he caught just 11 passes in his 10 starts. However, fewer touches could help him on a per carry basis, as could Kaepernick’s presence for a whole season.

This will probably be Gore’s last season in San Francisco as they’re unlikely to want to bring him back for his age 31 season in 2014, when he’ll be owed a non-guaranteed 6.45 million. They seem confident in the trio of Lattimore, Hunter, and James for the future. There’s also a chance he could see his abilities fall off a cliff this season, but that’s not a huge concern as they have the running back depth to compensate.

Hunter has rushed for 844 yards and 4 touchdowns on 184 carries, with 25 catches for 255 yards, in 2 seasons since going in the 4^th round in 2011. James, meanwhile, rushed for 125 yards on 27 carries with 3 catches for 29 yards in limited action as a 2^nd round rookie as Gore’s primary backup in Hunter’s absence late in the season. He also rushed for 65 yards and a score on 11 post-season attempts. Meanwhile, fullback Bruce Miller is one of the best in the game, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 7^th ranked fullback last season after ranking 9^th as a rookie in 2011.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

Their running game is also helped by an unbelievable offensive line. They were much improved overall in 2012, as opposed to 2011. In 2011, they graded out 3^rd in run blocking, 29^th in pass blocking, and 24^th in pass block efficiency. In 2012, they ranked 7^th, 1^st, and 17^th respectively in those 3 measures. The right side of their offensive line was most improved. They went into 2012 with Anthony Davis, a 2010 1^st round pick, looking like a bust at right tackle after 2 straight poor seasons, especially struggling in pass protection, and with an unknown at right guard. They “lost” incumbent Adam Snyder in free agency, but he was one of the worst guards in the league the season before. However, new starter Alex Boone was a converted tackle who had seen very little action anywhere since going undrafted in 2009 for character reasons.

Boone had a huge breakout season in his first year as a starter, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked guard, excelling as a run blocker. Davis, meanwhile, finally capitalized on his upside, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 10^th ranked offensive tackle (and 2^nd ranked right tackle behind Andre Smith), excelling as a run blocker as well.

Also capitalizing on his upside and first round talent was left guard Mike Iupati, who broke out last season, ranking 5^th on ProFootballFocus’ among guards, excelling in, yes, run blocking. Of the trio of breakout stars, he has the best chance of maintaining or even improving that level of play in 2013 and beyond because, even before his breakout season, he was ProFootballFocus, 13^th and 11^th ranked guard in 2010 and 2011 respectively. Boone and Davis are still one year wonders at this point, but they should continue playing well in 2013.

Their best offensive lineman was actually Joe Staley, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ #1 ranked offensive tackle on the blindside at left tackle. He’s another former 1^st round pick, from the 2007 draft class, and while he never did anything like what he did last season before, he’s always been a solid starter so he should continue being one of the best left tackles in the game in 2013.

Their “weak point” was center Jonathan Goodwin. He did grade out 15^th among eligible centers on ProFootballFocus, but he’s been inconsistent in the recent past and he’s heading into his age 35 season so there could be a falloff for him this season. However, if he’s your worst offensive lineman, you’re doing well. They will continue plowing open holes for their running backs and protecting Colin Kaepernick well.

Grade: A

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

One thing that people are saying could lead to Kaepernick having a sophomore slump is the loss of #1 receiver Michael Crabtree. Crabtree and Kaepernick showed tremendous chemistry last season, leading to former 1^st round pick Crabtree having a breakout year. Crabtree had 46 catches for 665 yards and 6 touchdowns in the final 8 games of the season and then added another 20 catches for 285 yards and 3 touchdowns in 3 playoff games. However, top level quarterbacks can succeed without great receivers. Kaepernick should be able to just go to the next man.

That next man is probably going to be Vernon Davis. Davis faded away big time down the stretch when Kaepernick took over. In the final 11 games of the season, including playoffs, Davis caught just 28 passes for 428 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, that was more because Crabtree got so many more targets from Kaepernick. In those 11 games, Crabtree was targeted 95 times and Davis was targeted 43 times. It wasn’t necessarily that he played poorly. He did catch 12 passes for 254 yards and a touchdown in those 3 playoff games and with a whole off-season together with Kaepernick, he should take over as their #1 receiver, which will help make up for Crabtree’s absence. It’s certainly not like Davis is untalented or anything, as he averaged 67 catches for 890 yards and 9 touchdowns per season from 2009-2011. He’s also a great run and pass blocker.

Anquan Boldin’s presence should also help make up for Crabtree’s absence. Boldin was acquired from the Ravens for a 6^th round pick as the Ravens couldn’t afford his salary. Boldin is aging, heading into his age 33 season, but he’s never been reliant on athleticism so he should age pretty well. His hands and body control won’t really age that fast. He caught 65 passes for 921 yards (both his highest totals since joining the Ravens) and 4 touchdowns last season and then exploded in the post-season, catching 22 passes for 380 yards and 4 touchdowns in 4 games, along with at least a half dozen incredible catches that the Ravens would not have won the Super Bowl without. This year, he’ll serve as a solid #2 receiver on the last year’s Super Bowl runner up, though his days as a 1000 yard receiver are probably over.

The issue is, after him, they really lack depth in the receiving corps. The only other receiver on their roster with a significant number of career catches is Mario Manningham, a marginal receiver whose status for the season is in doubt after tearing his ACL last December. After Boldin and Crabtree, their projected next 3 receivers do not have a single career catch between them. That’s because two of them are rookies and one of them did not catch a pass in his rookie season last year.

Those players are Quinton Patton, Vance McDonald, and AJ Jenkins. Jenkins and Patton will compete for the 3^rd receiver job. Jenkins was a 1^st round pick of the 49ers in 2012, but played just 47 total snaps as a rookie. The 49ers wanted to ease him into action, but I think they would have liked more than 47 snaps from him (with no catches). He just didn’t impress in practice at all. A questionable pick at the time (I thought Chris Givens, who went in the 4^th round, was a similar style player who would be a better pro), that decision looks even more questionable now.

Patton, meanwhile, is a 4^th round rookie and he could prove to be a steal. He’s not overly athletic, but he’s a great physical possession receiver, catching 183 passes for 2594 yards and 24 touchdowns in the last 2 seasons for Louisiana Tech, including a 21 catch, 233 yard, 4 touchdown game against Texas A&M in a near upset in their biggest game of the season in 2012. While he looks to have a bright future, the transition from Louisiana Tech to the NFL might be too big for him to have much of an impact as a rookie. The 49ers also have Kyle Williams at wide receiver, but he’s a depth receiver coming off a torn ACL and while his 35 career catches are more than most of the team, they’re not impressive.

Vance McDonald is the other rookie and he’ll serve as the #2 tight end, replacing Delanie Walker. Walker is a loss. Considering how much they like to use two-tight ends, he was essentially a starter, but, as good of a blocker as he was, he had lead hands and very little athleticism in the open field. McDonald, however, is incredibly raw, though he has a ridiculous upside.

One of the stars of the Combine, he ran a 4.69 40 at 6-4 267 with 34 3/8 inch arms, 10 1/8 inch hands, and threw up 31 reps of 225. He’s got upside as both a blocker and a receiver and wasn’t utilized properly at Rice, where he was essentially a big slot receiver, which is why he didn’t really produce. We’ll see how much the 2^nd round pick can contribute as a rookie. He’ll compete for the #2 tight end job with Garrett Celek, who will probably be the 3^rd tight end again. He has 4 career catches.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

As I mentioned in the opening, the defense kind of fell apart last season down the stretch. The tougher schedule had a lot to do with it, but you can also blame Justin Smith’s injury for a lot of it. As I mentioned, in the 5 ½ games after he got hurt, they allowed 31.8 points per game, though their schedule skews that number. Still, with him not on the field or with him playing at nowhere near 100%, they were not the same defense.

Smith didn’t really do a whole lot in terms of rushing the passer last season, even before the injury, with 4 sacks, 6 hits, and 21 hurries on 518 pass rush snaps, an uninspiring 6.0% pass rush rate, but he dominated against the run, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked 3-4 defensive end against the run and 5^th overall at his position. He also drew double teams with regularity, allowing Aldon Smith to see much easier blocking than most top level pass rushers, a big part of the reason why he had such a good season rushing the passer (more on that later).

However, in the post-season, he didn’t draw double teams, he managed just 2 hurries total in 3 games, and he struggled against the run. Overall, he saw a significant decline in 2012 from 2011, when he was ProFootballFocus’ highest graded defensive player overall, and, going into his age 34 season after a ridiculous workload over the past 2 seasons (2141 total snaps), he will probably continue to decline. He’s so important to their defense, so it’s a real concern for them this season.

If Smith gets hurt, it’s unclear who would take over his spot. They drafted Tank Carradine in the 2^nd round to be his future successor, but he’s coming off a torn ACL of his own, suffered back in November. He was able to work out before the draft in April so he might be good to go for the start of the season, but it’s unclear at what level he can play. The other option is Glenn Dorsey, a free agent acquisition, but he was pretty uninspiring as a starter at 5-technique in Kansas City. Besides, he’s slated to be the starting nose tackle.

Dorsey might seem like an odd fit at nose tackle considering his best role would be as a one gap penetrating defensive tackle in a 4-3, but the 49ers use a nose tackle less frequently than any other 3-4 team because they’re in sub packages so much. Dorsey will get opportunities to rush the passer from the traditional defensive tackle spot in 4-3 under packages, spelling Smith and Ray McDonald. He also can’t be as bad as Isaac Sopoaga, who really struggled in very limited action as their nose tackle last season. Ian Williams is the other nose tackle option. He’s more of a true nose tackle, but the 2011 undrafted free agent has played just 39 snaps in 2 seasons with the team.

On the other side of the formation, the aforementioned Ray McDonald will remain the starter. McDonald had a breakout season in 2011, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked 3-4 defensive end in his first year as a starter, but, as could be predicted, he didn’t play as well in 2012, grading out 9^th at his position. He wasn’t bad or anything, but it was a significant difference. He should once again be a solid starter who plays the run and rushes the passer well.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

I mentioned how much of Aldon Smith’s success was tied to Justin Smith. Aldon was 2nd in the league with 20 sacks and for a while looked on pace to break Michael Strahan’s single season record. However, because of Justin Smith, he saw much easier blocking than most top level pass rushers. ProFootballFocus takes all of this into account and they graded him out 3^rd at his position overall and 2^nd at his position in terms of rushing the passer. And when Justin got hurt, Aldon recorded one sack in his final 6 games of the season, including playoffs. If Justin starts showing his age or gets hurt again, it could really negatively affect Aldon and this pass rush as a whole. That’s an issue because of how dependent on the front 7 their secondary is, as you’ll see later.

Aldon also wasn’t as productive rushing the passer as his 20 sacks would suggest, even with Justin in front of him tying up blocks. To go with those 20 sacks, he had 13 hits, and 39 hurries on 538 pass rush snaps, a 13.4% pass rush rate that’s impressive, but not as elite as 20 sacks would suggest. In terms of pass rush efficiency (sacks + .75 hits + .75 hurries per 100 snaps), he actually was behind Paul Kruger and 2^nd at his position. Geno Atkins, Brandon Graham, Cameron Wake, and Charles Johnson also did better than him in this aspect at other positions. Smith was also not an elite run player and committed 8 penalties, 2^nd most at his position. He’s a very good player, but overrated. Justin Smith’s impact, meanwhile, is underrated.

Opposite Aldon, the 49ers have Ahmad Brooks. Brooks is not nearly the pass rusher than Aldon is, but he’s much more well rounded, excelling in coverage and against the run and being used in a variety of different ways for that reason. Overall, he was ProFootballFocus’ 5^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker. He wasn’t a bad pass rusher, but graded out below average in that aspect, with 7 sacks, 10 hits, and 33 hurries on 492 pass rush snaps, a 10.2% rate. They also added Corey Lemonier in the 3^rd round of the draft to provide depth and he’s a great athlete and pass rusher, but incredibly raw so I don’t expect much from him as a rookie. If Aldon Smith becomes less productive this season rushing the passer, they could have trouble in that aspect of the game.

Meanwhile, at middle linebacker for the 49ers, things are about as good as they get in the NFL. Patrick Willis is hands down the best middle linebacker in the NFL, grading out as a top-2 middle linebacker on ProFootballFocus for 5 straight seasons, something no one else comes close to. He was their #1 ranked middle linebacker both in 2009 and 2012 and he excels in all aspects of the game.

One of the seasons Willis didn’t rank #1 was 2011 and that was because teammate NaVorro Bowman ranked #1 that season. Bowman, a 2010 3^rd round pick, slipped up a little bit in 2012 and he’s not on the same level as Willis, but no one really is. He certainly didn’t play bad, grading out as the #7 ranked middle linebacker on ProFootballFocus in his 2^nd season as a starter. There’s not a better inside linebacker pair in the NFL.

Grade: A

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Secondary

I mentioned their secondary was exposed last season down the stretch as their front 7 and pass rush play slipped. Their secondary could be even worse this season. Dashon Goldson is gone. He’s an overrated player who wasn’t worth nearly what the Buccaneers paid him, but he was still an above average starter. 1^st round rookie Eric Reid will start in his absence and he’ll probably be a downgrade, at least in his first season in the league.

Carlos Rogers could also be gone. Rogers had a down year in 2012 after a career year in 2011, as could be expected, but he still graded out above average. The 49ers are reportedly interested in making him a final cut, which would save them 4.25 million dollars. That might not be a bad idea considering he’s heading into his age 32 season and could be headed for a down season, but there’s no doubt that a top trio of cornerbacks that consists of three of Nnamdi Asomugha, Eric Wright, Tarell Brown, and Chris Culliver isn’t very imposing.

Brown is the only one of that quartet guaranteed a big role. Brown finished 2012 as ProFootballFocus’ 13th ranked cornerback, 7th if post-season is included. He didn’t allow a touchdown through the regular season, something only Cortland Finnegan and Antoine Winfield could also say among 16 game starters at cornerback. He was memorably burned for a touchdown by Julio Jones in San Francisco’s eventual NFC Championship victory over the Falcons, but that was the only touchdown he allowed all season, including playoffs, over 779 coverage snaps. He also missed just one tackle all season.

He finished the season allowing 61.1% completion on 113 attempts for 890 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions, 14 deflections, and 9 penalties. However, he really hit his stride starting week 8, grading out 2.0 (elite) or better on ProFootballFocus in 6 of his final 12 games, including 3 of 4 post-season games (Atlanta excluded). From week 8 on, he allowed 47 completions on 82 attempts (57.3%) for 551 yards (6.7 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions. In those final 12 games, he had 13 of his 14 deflections, including a 5 deflection game against Arizona week 8 that was his best game of the season.

While Carlos Rogers was technically the 49ers’ #1 cornerback, the 49ers have their cornerbacks exclusively cover one side of the field, rather than having one guy shadow the opponent’s best receiver, so Brown had plenty of chances to go against the best receivers in the league, especially down the stretch and he more than held his own. Working exclusively on the right side, Brown held Brandon Marshall to one catch for 8 yards on 3 attempts, Jordy Nelson to 1 catch for 8 yards on 2 attempts (in their post-season matchup with Green Bay), and Larry Fitzgerald to 1 catch for 15 yards on 5 attempts in 2 games.

Only Julio Jones, who burned him for 7 catches for 80 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts, got the best of him among the elite receivers he faced down the stretch. With Goldson gone and Carlos Rogers aging and probably following him out the door, Brown could have his biggest responsibilities yet this season and could be San Francisco’s de facto #1 cornerback. Based on his play last season, he seems up to the challenge.

Eric Wright probably has the 2nd best chance to make the roster, if we assume Rogers is a goner, because he has the most experience on the slot, which has been Rogers’ specialty over the past 2 seasons. Wright was recently acquired from Tampa Bay for a late round pick and he’s not that good of a defensive back. When the Buccaneers signed Eric Wright to a 5-year, 37.5 million dollar contract last off-season, it looked like an absolutely ridiculous deal. Wright was one of the worst starting cornerbacks in the NFL the prior two seasons (just ask Cleveland and Detroit fans). There was a reason he was available for a 1-year deal the previous off-season before the 2011 season.

In 2011 with the Lions, he ranked 105 of 109 eligible cornerbacks by ProFootballFocus last season, allowing a completion percentage of 62.5%, 7.0 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, all while ranking below average against the run. He was actually thrown on more than any cornerback in the league except Jabari Greer, being thrown on 120 times. It was a move that reeked of desperation for a team with no defensive back talent and plenty of cap space to burn.

However, he was arrested again for DUI earlier this month (he had a previous arrest last off-season) and that was apparently the last straw for the Buccaneers, who would have cut him outright (penalty free) and owed him no money, if they couldn’t find a trade partner. It was a pretty low risk trade for the 49ers because they aren’t giving up much (late round picks have a hard time making their roster because of their depth) and because he doesn’t have any guaranteed money, but he’s still not a great talent and there’s a chance he could be facing another suspension after another off-season DUI (last year’s was a felony and this was a misdemeanor, so that’s progress).

Culliver was their #3 cornerback, playing outside with Tarell Brown in 3-cornerback sets, when Rogers would move to the slot. He played 691 regular season snaps in that role last season because of how much they use sub packages. He graded out above average, allowing 36 catches on 73 attempts for 471 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 8 passes and committing 6 penalties. However, he struggled mightily in the post-season. He allowed 14 catches on 22 attempts for 252 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, while deflecting 2 passes and committing 3 penalties.

Asomugha is the other option and he’ll probably be on the outside looking out. He got old in a hurry after signing a massive deal with the Eagles 2 off-seasons ago. In 2011, he ranked 88^th out of 109 eligible and in 2012 he ranked 101^st out of 113 eligible. He’s going into his age 32 season this season and while he’s a better fit for the 49ers’ scheme than the Eagles’ scheme, he looks like the worst cornerback of the bunch. His speed is pretty much all gone.

Donte Whitner is the other starter in the secondary as he’ll play safety next to Eric Reid. Whitner made the Pro-Bowl last year, but only by association and because of the San Francisco Bay Area’s tendency to stuff the ballot box for All-Star games in all sports. He graded out below average and struggled mightily in coverage, especially in the post-season. In the regular season, he allowed 34 catches on 43 attempts for 330 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 3 passes and not committing a penalty. In the post-season, he allowed 8 catches on 11 attempts for 86 yards, 1 penalty, 1 deflection, and another 4 touchdowns allowed. He allowed 12 touchdowns between the regular season and the post-season, a ridiculous amount considering the 49ers allowed just 26 passing touchdowns all season. He’s a box safety and that’s about it.

Grade: B-

Head Coach

Not much explanation needed here. Harbaugh rebuilt Stanford’s football program, turning them from 1 win in 2006 to a perennial BCS bowl contender in 4 years and then won the NFL’s Head Coach of the Year Award in 2011, taking a perennial non-playoff team to the NFC Championship. The following season, he took them to the Super Bowl. He hasn’t been in the league very long, but he’s clearly one of the best.

Grade: A

Overall

Defensively, the 49ers won’t be the team that allowed 23.5 points per game in the 2^nd half of last season and the playoffs and they definitely won’t be the team that allowed 31.8 points per game in the final 5 ½ games of the season. However, they are slipping on that side of the ball. Justin Smith, the most important cog, is aging and their secondary is really lacking on talent, which will be exposed if their pass rush struggles.

Offensively though, they averaged 5 points per more game under Kaepernick last season than they did under Smith in 2011 and the first half of 2012. Even if they start allowing 17-19 points per game, they’ll still outscore opponents by about 10 points per game because I expect them to also score 27-29 points per game. They remain one of the best teams in the NFL and they are built to win a Super Bowl more than they were at this point last season because they’re not as reliant on winning the turnover battle.

In the division, they should split with Seattle, an evenly matched team that is awesome at home and not as good on the road and they’ll probably sweep both St. Louis and Arizona, so I have them at 4 or 5 wins in the division. Outside of the division, they host Green Bay, Indianapolis, Houston, Carolina, and Atlanta. That’s a rough 5 games, but they should win at least 3 of them. They also go to Tennessee, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Washington, and Tampa Bay. New Orleans will be a tough place to win and Washington won’t be a pushover, but they should still win 12 or so games.

However, I won’t predict them to win the Super Bowl or even make it back to the Super Bowl because , no team has lost the Super Bowl and come back to win it the following season in over 40 years. No reigning Super Bowl loser has even made the Super Bowl the following season since the early 90s Bills. It’s why I didn’t pick the Patriots last season. They could break that streak, but it’s more likely that it’s their turn to have a great regular season followed by a disappointing early playoff exit, following in the footsteps of Green Bay, Denver, and New England, who have done so in the last 2 seasons.

Projection: 12-4 1^st in NFC West

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New York Giants 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

July 21, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Giants, Uncategorized

QB Eli Manning (NY Giants)

Eli threw for 4933 yards in 2011, but other than that has never gone over 4021. He proved that 2011 was a fluke by throwing for just 3948 yards in 2012. It’s not that he’s a bad quarterback, but the Giants prefer a balanced attack. I do expect him to go over those 4021 yards this season because he’s got a loaded receiving corps with Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Myers, and Reuben Randle.

Projection: 4200 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (263 pts standard, 323 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB David Wilson (NY Giants)

8/29/13: I was already considering moving Wilson up because he was taking some of the goal line carries away from Andre Brown and because he was having an amazing pre-season, averaging 7.5 yards per carry. However, Andre Brown is out indefinitely with a fractured ankle and might miss the entire season. It’s the same leg he fractured last season. He’s not draftable any more, while Wilson has minimal competition for carries and is as close to being a true feature back as you can be. There’s RB1 upside here. The Giants have averaged 16.6 rushing touchdowns per season since 2004. The last time a Giants’ starting running back was also the goal line back, he scored 15 times, Tiki Barber in 2004, before Brandon Jacobs and Andre Brown. Brandon Jacobs scored 15 times in 2008 despite splitting carries. Tom Coughlin runs on the goal line.

Wilson showed a lot of explosiveness as a rookie, especially on special teams, but he only got 71 carries. That should be closer to 200 this season. However, Andre Brown will continue to steal carries from him, especially around the goal line. The coaching staff doesn’t 100% trust Wilson get and Brown is the better short yardage and passing down back.

Projection: 280 carries for 1260 rushing yards 12 total touchdowns 28 catches for 200 rushing yards (218 pts standard, 246 pts PPR)

WR Victor Cruz (NY Giants)

Cruz didn’t match the 82 catches for 1536 yards and 9 touchdowns he had in 2011, but it would have been unreasonable to expect him to do that. He still caught 86 passes for 1092 yards and 10 touchdowns and he could do even better than that this season. His one issue last season was his 12 drops.

Projection: 84 catches for 1170 receiving yards 9 touchdowns (171 pts standard, 255 pts PPR)

WR Hakeem Nicks (NY Giants)

Nicks essentially missed 4 games last season and was limited in others, catching just 53 passes for a career low 692 yards and 3 touchdowns. However, remember, he averaged 78 catches for 1122 yards and 9 touchdowns per season in 2010 and 2011 despite missing 4 combined games in those 2 seasons. He’s never played a full 16 game set and I wouldn’t expect that to change this season, but I like his chances to get back over 1000 yards and give the Giants two 1000 yard receivers.

Projection: 71 catches for 1020 receiving yards 8 touchdowns (150 pts standard, 221 pts PPR)

TE Brandon Myers (NY Giants)

Giants tight ends always seem to be productive in the passing game, regardless of who they are. Tight ends coach Mike Pope is a big part of the reason for this, as is the offensive system and Eli Manning’s tendency to throw to the tight end. Myers caught 79 passes for 804 yards and 4 touchdowns on just 101 targets last season with Carson Palmer throwing him the ball. He could match that, or even exceed that.

Projection: 74 catches for 790 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (109 pts standard, 183 pts PPR)

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Washington Redskins 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

July 21, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Commanders, Uncategorized

QB Robert Griffin (Washington)

Griffin is expected to be ready for week 1 of this season, but he has a history of knee problems so it’s unclear if he’ll be able to stay healthy for all 16 games and at what percent of his peak ability he’ll be able to play. They’re already talking about limiting his carries, which is such a big part of his game. He also shouldn’t be expected to maintain the 1.3% interception rate he had last season, even if he is healthy.

Projection: 3150 passing yards 19 passing touchdowns 9 interceptions 550 rushing yards 5 rushing touchdowns (269 pts standard, 307 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Alfred Morris (Washington)

It can be easy to forget because of what Robert Griffin did, but RG3 wasn’t the Redskins’ only rookie sensation. 6th round rookie Alfred Morris surprisingly won the starting job week 1 and did his best Terrell Davis impression for the rest of the season, rushing for 1613 yards and 13 touchdowns on 335 attempts. However, Morris owes a lot of his success to Griffin taking the attention off of him. Defenses had to focus on Griffin’s arm strength and running ability and, as a result, Morris had a lot of running room in their read option offense. Credit Morris for his vision, intelligence, and for wasting no movement, but it’s definitely worth noting that Morris rushed for just 3.2 yards per carry without Griffin against Cleveland. Morris’ running success will largely be tied to Griffin’s success and Morris also provides very little on passing downs, catching just 11 passes for 77 yards.

Projection: 300 carries for 1320 rushing yards 11 total touchdowns 10 catches for 70 yards (205 pts standard, 215 pts PPR)

WR Pierre Garcon (Washington)

Despite playing through injuries, Garcon had 633 yards on 215 routes run last season, good for 2.94 yards per route run, 2nd in the NFL among eligible wide receivers behind Andre Johnson. He was targeted 63 times, giving him a very impressive yard per target rate of over 10 per and with 63 targets on 215 routes run, he was by far Robert Griffin’s favorite target to throw to when he was on the field. Griffin was also very efficient when throwing to him, completing 69.8% of his passes for 10.0 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception, a QB rating of 116.7, 14th in the NFL among eligible wide receivers. It’s clear that Garcon has a ton of upside in his role in Washington’s offense. As long as he and Griffin can stay healthy, they he can put up big numbers. It’s a risk, but there’s a ton of upside here.

Projection: 70 catches for 1100 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (152 pts standard, 222 pts PPR)

TE Fred Davis (Washington)

Tight end Fred Davis went down with a season ending torn Achilles early in their 7th game of the season. He was brought back on a one year prove it deal that could pay dividends if he’s healthy. He’s only played in 18 full games over the past 2 seasons thanks to injury and suspension, but he has caught 82 passes for 1110 yards and 3 touchdowns in those 18 games, despite playing 12 of them with Rex Grossman as his quarterback. We’ll see how he bounces back after his injury, but he has great natural receiving ability.

Projection: 55 catches for 750 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns (99 pts standard, 154 pts PPR)

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Philadelphia Eagles 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

July 21, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Eagles, Uncategorized

QB Michael Vick (Philadelphia)

8/20/13: Michael Vick has been named the starter for the Eagles. The good news is he’ll have a better supporting cast than he did last season unless injuries strike at the same level they did last season and he has a new Head Coach in Chip Kelly who wants him to run more. Vick did look great in the pre-season in Kelly’s system and he has that Kelly has made him fall in love with the game again. That’s the good news.

The bad news is he’s almost a lock to miss 3-4 games with injury and I wouldn’t rule out him getting benched for Nick Foles or Matt Barkley later in the season, especially if the team is out of playoff contention. He’s averaged 11.8 starts per season over the last 4 years, starting 10 last season, and I think going into his age 33 season, the over/under for starts for him should be around 10.5. On top of that, he’s shown declining physical abilities as a result of age and his injury history and he’s more reliant on his physical abilities than maybe any quarterback in recent history. He was never going to age well. I think he’ll produce like a QB2 and it’s best to go with someone more reliable in a backup quarterback.

Projection: 2300 passing yards, 14 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 450 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (191 pts standard, 219 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia)

McCoy had a very solid stretch from 2010-2011, missing just 2 games and rushing for 2389 yards and 24 touchdowns on 480 carries, with 126 catches for 907 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. He looked like one of the best and most complete backs in the NFL. However, in 2012, he struggled along with the rest of the Eagles’ offense, rushing for just 840 yards on 200 carries, catching 54 passes for 373 yards and scoring just 5 total times, only twice on the ground. He also missed 4 games with injury. He should bounce back this year.

Projection: 250 carries for 1150 rushing yards 10 total touchdowns 58 catches for 470 yards (222 pts standard, 280 pts PPR)

RB Bryce Brown (Philadelphia)

Andy Reid and his pass heavy offense are gone and Chip Kelly figures to have his offense run the ball a lot. Also, Kelly favors a two back approach much more than Reid, who preferred to have one back do everything. Brown will get plenty of action as the #2 back behind LeSean McCoy. He rushed for 564 yards and 4 touchdowns on 115 carries and caught 13 passes for 56 yards last season.

Projection: 120 carries for 560 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 15 catches for 90 yards (95 pts standard, 110 pts PPR)

WR DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia)

7/28/13: With Maclin going down for the season, DeSean Jackson should see an increase in targets. He’s currently the 32^nd wide receiver off the board on average, going in the 7^th or 8^th round range, but he should be his team’s leading receiver by far and he’ll give you added value on the ground as well. He’s a nice value.

Jackson has rushed just 54 times in his career in 5 seasons, going for 371 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he could see that number increase this season as he’s expected to be used somewhat in that DeAnthony Thomas role. He won’t get a ton of carries, but the Eagles will do a lot of things to get the ball in his hands because of his speed. He’ll probably also see more short throws and screens than he normally does, as they attempt to get him the ball in space, and could easily surpass his career high 62 receptions, though he probably won’t reach his career 17.5 yards per reception average.

Projection: 67 catches for 1000 receiving yards 8 total touchdowns 25 carries for 170 rushing yards (165 pts standard, 232 pts PPR)

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Philadelphia Eagles 2013 NFL Season Preview

July 21, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Eagles, Uncategorized

Introduction

The Eagles dubbed themselves the “Dream Team” after a “strong” off-season coming out of the lockout in 2011. Among the additions were Nnamdi Asomugha, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Cullen Jenkins, and Jason Babin. However, the team never lived up to expectations, going just 8-8 in 2011. Asomugha got old in a hurry, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie struggled on the slot, and while, Cullen Jenkins and Jason Babin got to the quarterback a lot, their defensive line as a whole got destroyed against the run. That wasn’t helped by terrible linebacker and safety play. On top of that, they struggled mightily in close games, lost the turnover battle at an incredible rate, and were poorly coached, especially defensively where Juan Castillo was promoted to defensive coordinator from OFFENSIVE line coach.

In 2012, hopes were higher. They had a whole off-season together. They closed 2011 well. And history suggested that they wouldn’t be as bad in close games or lose the turnover battle as badly. After a week 4 win against the Giants, they stood at 3-1, giving them 7 wins in 8 games dating back to the previous season, but they would win just once more the rest of the way. Injuries on the offensive line to Jason Peters and Todd Herremans really hurt them and veterans Asomugha, Rodgers-Cromartie, Jenkins, Babin, and Trent Cole all struggled. Juan Castillo did not improve in his 2^nd year in the job and the team tuned out to Head Coach Andy Reid’s message.

They also once again struggled mightily with turnovers, turning the ball over 37 times and forcing just 13 takeaways for a differential of -24 that was tied for the worst in the NFL. It’s tough to win any games when you do that. However, that should turn around in 2012. Not only did they do a good job of personnel and coaching staff turnover, that type of thing is inconsistent on a year-to-year basis anyway.

For example, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers on average turn the ball over 25.5 times the following season, while teams that turn the ball over 35 or more times turn the ball over 28.1 times the following season. Teams with 20 or fewer takeaways take the ball away an average of 25.3 times the following season, while teams with 35 or more takeaways take the ball away an average of 27.3 times the following season. Teams with a turnover differential of +15 or higher have a turnover differential of +3.6 the following season, while teams with a turnover differential of -15 have a turnover differential of +1.5 the following season.

Fumbles were the biggest issue for the Eagles as they lost 22 fumbles to 5 recovered defensively. They should improve on their 35.1% fumble recovery rate from 2012. That’s more luck than anything. Of course, they’ll never dominate the turnover battle or anything, as long as turnover machine Michael Vick is under center and they also have Bryce Brown, who might have the least fundamentally sound running style in the NFL. However, they’ll do much better that -24 in 2013 and that will lead to more wins. On top of that, Jason Peters and Todd Herremans returning from injury on the offensive line will really help.

Quarterback

Everyone remembers that ridiculous Madden-esque game Vick had against the Redskins in the 2010 season, but in the past 2 seasons in 2011 and 2012, he’s completed 457 of 774 (59.1%) for 5665 yards (7.2 YPA), 30 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions, while rushing for 921 yards and 2 touchdowns on 138 carries, while fumbling 21 total times. He’s also running less often than he’s ever run.

Michael Vick was never going to age well. He’s way too reliant on athleticism. While quarterbacks playing at a high level into their mid and late 30s isn’t unheard of, running backs and wide receivers doing so is pretty rare. There’s a reason for that and as Vick aged and lost some of his athleticism, it was predictable he’d struggle, especially after spending 2 years away from the game in prison. Injuries don’t help things. Vick has played all 16 games just once in his career and has missed 13 games in the last 3 years alone. Not only does that make him incredibly unreliable going forward, all those injuries have really taken a toll on him.

Andy Reid made him look better than he was, just like he did with Kevin Kolb, AJ Feeley, Donovan McNabb, etc, but even Reid couldn’t do anything with him last year as Vick had his worst quarterback rating since 2006 and the 4th fewest rushing yards of his career (behind his rookie year, when he barely played, 2003, when he missed 11 games with injury, and 2009, his first year in Philadelphia, when he barely played). There’s a reason Reid gave up on him last season, keeping him on the bench in favor of the rookie Nick Foles even when Vick was healthy and not allowing Vick to see the field until week 17, when he lost 42-7 to the Giants in the absence of an injured Foles. Going into his age 33 season, Vick is pretty washed up.

The Eagles brought back him for another season for two reasons. One, this was a historically bad quarterback draft and, aside from trading for Alex Smith, which they didn’t have interest in, there wasn’t another option to find a starting quarterback this off-season. Vick isn’t very good, but he’s still one of the top-32 quarterbacks in the NFL and deserves a starting job for that reason. Two, he is an incredibly intriguing fit in Chip Kelly’s offense and if anyone can salvage his career, it’s Kelly.

Vick won’t be handed the starting job though. He will have to compete with Nick Foles and Matt Barkley and the Eagles are doing a very good job of hiding their intentions in all phases of the game this off-season. Foles was a 3^rd round pick in 2012 and, as a rookie, he completed 60.8% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. However, he was a much better fit for Andy Reid’s offense than for Chip Kelly’s. While Kelly has expressed admiration for the quarterback he used to face in the Pac-12, he has no other ties to him and, with his lead feet, lack of pocket presence, and long release, he’s doesn’t do the things that are the fundamentals of any Chip Kelly offense.

Matt Barkley is a 4^th round rookie and he could be an intriguing choice. Barkley doesn’t have the mobility that Kelly likes, but that’s not a necessity. He’s an accurate, smart quarterback with a quick release and quick decision making ability. Kelly wants to run 75-80 plays per game and a quarterback who can move the chains, make quick audibles, and run quick plays will really help you do that. He’s the only quarterback on this roster drafted by Kelly and, while he has his flaws, he’s certainly got strengths that Kelly can build around. And on top of that, remember that their offensive coordinator is Pat Shurmur, whose system Barkley would fit perfectly. Kelly is going to have a lot more influence on the offense than Shurmur, but his presence is worth noting.

Vick is the favorite for the job, but not guaranteed to win it. If he doesn’t win the job, he might not even make the final roster. In that case, the Eagles may see the 3.5 million they gave him as a signing bonus as a sunk cost and cut him to save the 4 million he’ll be guaranteed if he’s on the week 1 roster. That wouldn’t be worth it for the Eagles if he’s not going to start and if they don’t need a backup.

Even if Vick does win the starting job, I expect this to be his final season with the Eagles (maybe in the NFL) and we’ll probably still see Foles and/or Barkley either way because of Vick’s injury history. As I mentioned, Vick has played all 16 games just once in his career and has missed 13 games in the last 3 years alone. As he ages, he’ll only be more susceptible to injuries, especially if he runs more in Chip Kelly’s offense. There’s a lot of certainty at this position and it’s really going to hold them back this season.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

I mentioned in the opening that the Eagles lost their two starting offensive tackles last season. Jason Peters was the bigger loss. Easily ProFootballFocus’ top ranked offensive tackle in 2011, Peters didn’t play a snap in 2012 after tearing his Achilles twice in the pre-season. Demetress Bell laughably attempted to replace him, but he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd worst offensive tackle in 2012 despite only making 7 starts. King Dunlap took over after that and was better, but only by default. Peters will be an obvious upgrade even in his age 31 season as long as he can stay healthy and if he can reach even close to his 2011 form, he’ll be a huge asset for this team. His athleticism makes him an especially good fit for Chip Kelly’s offense.

Herremans played 7 ½ games for the Eagles last season before he went down for the season and he played really well at right tackle, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 29^th ranked offensive tackle despite the limited playing time. In his absence, Dennis Kelly filled in and was also laughable in this attempt, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 70^th ranked offensive tackle out of 80 eligible despite his limited playing time.

He returns this season and will move back to his natural position at right guard, which will help him as he goes into his age 31 season. He’ll be a huge upgrade there over the Danny Watkins/Jake Scott combination that played there last season. Watkins was a huge bust as a 1^st round pick in 2011, struggling mightily in about a year and a half as a starter before being benched for Jake Scott, who was signed off the street mid-season. He wasn’t much better.

Meanwhile, in Herremans’ old right tackle spot, rookie 4^th overall pick Lane Johnson will start. He’s obviously got a ton of upside and, like Peters, he’s going to be a great fit in Chip Kelly’s offense because of his absurd athleticism, but he’s really raw so there will be growing pains in his first season. He’ll be an upgrade over Dennis Kelly though. The Eagles are essentially adding three big time “additions” to the offensive line this off-season and all 3 will be major upgrades.

Complimenting that trio will be Evan Mathis at left guard, who played all of last season and was the lone bright spot on the offensive line. He’s arguably the best guard in the NFL, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ #1 ranked guard in each of the last 2 seasons by a considerable margin, allowing just 1 sack total and plowing open big holes on the ground with regularity.

The only hole on the offensive line is center, where Jason Kelce also returns from injury. Kelce was ProFootballFocus’ 33^rd ranked center out of 35 eligible in 2011 as a 6^th round rookie and while he looked good to start the 2012 season, he played just 138 snaps before going on injured reserve with a knee injury. The undersized 282 pound Kelce is a good fit for Chip Kelly’s offense because of his athleticism, so we’ll see how he plays this season, and he probably will be an upgrade over Dallas Reynolds, who was ProFootballFocus’ 34^th ranked center out of 36 eligible in 2012. If he’s your worst offensive lineman, you’re in pretty good shape.

This should be a much improved offensive line. In 2012, they ranked 6^th in run blocking grade, 26^th in pass blocking grade, and 24^th in pass block efficiency. In 2011, they ranked 4^th, 14^th, and 15^th respectively in those 4 measures. In 2013, they should be much closer to where they were in 2011 than where they were in 2012 and they could even be improved on 2011. One thing that’s very good to see: they have one of the most, if not the most, athletic offensive lines in the NFL. That’s what they need to run this offense.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

I mentioned Bryce Brown’s propensity to fumbling in the opening. Brown fumbled 4 times on 128 touches last season and his atrocious running style is to blame. It was almost as if he had never watched another running back play because I’ve never seen anyone run with the football in the careless way he did. It’s very possible that Brown suffered from a severe lack of coaching as he spent one season at Tennessee in 2009, one at Kansas State ineligible after transferring in 2010, and then left the Kansas State program early in the 2011 season before declaring early for the draft in 2012. To his credit, he did seem to correct the problem shown the stretch, not fumbling in his final 4 games.

Brown was the #1 rated high school running back prospect, but he had just 104 collegiate carries because the aforementioned story. The Eagles took a risk on his natural talent in the 7^th round of the 2012 NFL Draft and it was a smart decision. A 7^th rounder is barely anything to lose and with the exception of the fumbling issue, Brown looked incredibly explosive as a rookie, taking over down the stretch for an injured LeSean McCoy. He rushed for 564 yards and 4 touchdowns on 115 carries and caught 13 passes for 56 yards. He had 2 very impressive starts against Carolina and Dallas, rushing for 347 yards and 4 touchdowns on 43 attempts, but fumbled 3 times in those 2 games. He didn’t fumble the rest of the way, but rushed for just 76 yards on 40 carries in those final 4 games.

Andy Reid and his pass heavy offense are gone and Chip Kelly figures to have his offense run the ball a lot. Also, Kelly favors a two back approach much more than Reid, who preferred to have one back do everything. Brown will get plenty of action as the #2 back behind LeSean McCoy. He’ll spell him often and occasionally he might line up on the field at the same time as McCoy.

McCoy, however, will remain the starter. McCoy had a very solid stretch from 2010-2011, missing just 2 games and rushing for 2389 yard and 24 touchdowns on 480 carries, with 126 catches for 907 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. He looked like one of the best and most complete backs in the NFL. However, in 2012, he struggled along with the rest of the Eagles’ offense, rushing for just 840 yards on 200 carries, catching 54 passes for 373 yards and scoring just 5 total times, only twice on the ground. He also missed 4 games with injury. He should bounce back this year. He will see at least double Brown’s carries and both backs are good fits for Chip Kelly’s speed based offense.

Grade: A-

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Wide Receivers/Tight End

In addition to McCoy and Brown getting a bunch of carries, wide receiver DeSean Jackson could also see carries. Jackson has rushed just 54 times in his career in 5 seasons, going for 371 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he could see that number increase this season as he’s expected to be used somewhat in that DeAnthony Thomas role. He won’t get a ton of carries, but the Eagles will do a lot of things to get the ball in his hands because of his speed. He’ll probably also see more short throws and screens than he normally does, as they attempt to get him the ball in space, and could easily surpass his career high 62 receptions, though he probably won’t reach his career 17.5 yards per reception average.

He’s got great long speed and great short area agility, but he’s not a great route runner and he doesn’t go over the middle well. In 71 career games, he’s caught 274 passes for 4785 yards and 23 touchdowns, but he’s only once played all 16 games in 5 seasons, missing 9 games total, including the final 5 games of last season. Because of the missed time with injury, he caught just 45 passes for 700 yards and 2 touchdowns last season.

His complement, Jeremy Maclin, is also fast, but he’s a better route runner. The 2009 1^st round pick has never had a 1000 yard season, but he’s been very close in all 4 seasons and he’s caught 258 passes for 3453 yards and 26 touchdowns in 59 career games. Like Jackson, he’s only played all 16 games once, missing 5 games total, and he should get close to 1000 yards again. One of the draws to Philadelphia for Chip Kelly had to have been how many speedy players they have on offense, at all positions.

Jason Avant isn’t that speedy, but he’s a good slot receiver, who has caught 156 passes for 1900 yards and 2 touchdowns in the last 3 seasons in that role. He’ll continue to serve in that role this season, but it’s unclear if he’ll be utilized as much as he has been in the past. He’s heading into his age 30 season and the Eagles figure to use much more two-tight end sets than they have in that past. He’s unlikely to see anywhere near the 727 snaps (482 pass snaps) he’s averaged over the past 3 seasons.

It makes sense that they’d use two-tight ends more often because they plan to run more often. Kelly has certainly signaled a move in that direction with his off-season moves these past few months, drafting Zach Ertz in the 2^nd round and signing fullback/tight end James Casey to go with decent incumbent starter Brent Celek. They’ll also throw out of this set to tight ends often because all 3 of those guys can catch passes.

Ertz was known for his pass catching at Stanford, catching 69 passes for 898 yards and 6 touchdowns last season as a starter. The 6-5 249 pounder ran a 4.76 at the Combine and put up 24 reps of 225 pounds. Casey moved all around the formation in Houston last season and figures to do the same again this season in Philadelphia. Primarily a fullback, Casey played 609 snaps last season, which would have led the position had they all been as a traditional fullback. He didn’t block that well, but he led the position in pass catching grade and caught 34 passes for 330 yards and 3 touchdowns. Celek doesn’t block that well either, but he’s averaged 59 catches for 744 passes and 5 touchdowns. Whoever wins the quarterback job will have plenty of guys to throw to.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

Defensively, the Eagles are switching up schemes in a major way too, going to a 3-4 from a wide nine 4-3, but the problem is their personnel doesn’t fit it well at all. Fletcher Cox remains on the defensive line, converting from a defensive tackle to a 5-technique defensive end. He has the size and athleticism to excel in that position and, coming out of Mississippi State, I thought that would be his best position in the pros. He’ll still play inside some at defensive tackle as the Eagles are expected to use a hybrid scheme with 4-3 under sub packages, but the scheme change will definitely do him some good. He’s also expected to play a fairly full set of snaps as he’s by far the Eagles’ best end after letting go of Cullen Jenkins, Derek Landri, and Mike Patterson.

Cox finished the 2012 season as ProFootballFocus’ 18th rated defensive tackle on just 526 snaps, grading out above average as both a run stuffer and a pass rusher. With 4 sacks, 6 hits, and 14 hurries on 303 pass rush snaps, he finished 13th among eligible defensive tackles in pass rush efficiency and he was also 20th in run stop percentage. Even better news for the Eagles, he got better as the season went on, especially as a pass rusher as he had 3 sacks, 4 hits, and 10 hurries in weeks 10-16 (he didn’t play week 17 with injury). He could finish the year as a top-10 five-technique defensive end.

After him, things are pretty bleak on the defensive line. With Jenkins, Landri, and Patterson gone, Cedric Thornton is moving into the starting job opposite Cox after the 2011 undrafted free agent graded out negatively on 406 snaps last season. The Eagles drafted Bennie Logan in the 3^rd round but the 6-2 309 pounder is not a natural fit for a 3-4 end position. He’ll serve primarily as a nickel rusher inside next to Cox in 4-3 sub packages, though it’s unclear how much of an impact he can have as a rookie. Thornton, meanwhile, will be a base end and I don’t expect him to play that well.

At nose tackle in base packages, the Eagles have Isaac Sopoaga, signed from the 49ers. However, Sopoaga really struggled in San Francisco on the rare occasions they actually used a nose tackle. He played just 335 snaps for them last season, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 4^th lowest ranked defensive tackle despite the limited snap count, struggling mightily against the run and rushing the passer. Heading into his age 32 season, he’s unlikely to get better.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The one player who will most negatively be affected by a switch to a 3-4 defense is Brandon Graham. Graham, a 2010 1^st round pick, finally was last season and came into his own in a big way. Despite making just 6 starts, he had 7 sacks, 7 hits, and 31 hurries, doing so on 220 pass rush snaps, a pass rush rate of 20.5%. His pass rush efficiency (sacks + .75 hits + .75 hurries per snap * 100) was 17.3 which led his position. For comparison, the next highest player at any position was Cameron Wake at 12.9. He also played the run well and overall graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd ranked 4-3 defensive end despite his limited playing time, only behind Wake.

Graham played so well that the Eagles benched and cut Jason Babin, who had 18 sacks the season before and who was having a decent season. Once Graham took over as a starter for the final 6 games of the season, his play really flourished as he had 5 sacks, 3 hits, and 17 hurries on 131 pass rush snaps, a 19.1% pass rush rate. Graham, however, is a poor fit for a 3-4 defense and because of the scheme change, one of the league’s most promising pass rushers won’t even start this season. The Eagles signed Connor Barwin to a 6-year, 36 million dollar deal to start over him this off-season. Graham figures to only play in sub packages on clear passing downs as a pass rush specialist in a 4-3. That’s an immense waste of his talents. If I were a 4-3 team, I’d give up a 2^nd rounder for him in a heartbeat.

Barwin has experience in a 3-4, playing in that scheme in the last 2 seasons in Houston, but he’s nowhere near the pass rusher that Graham was last season, even at his best. The 2009 2^nd round pick had 12 sacks in 2011 in his first season as a starter, with 18 hits and 24 hurries on 520 pass rush snaps, a solid 10.4% pass rush rate, but he struggled against the run and overall wasn’t as good as the raw numbers suggested. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 19^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker out of 28 eligible.

In 2012, he was even worse. He managed just 4 sacks, 12 hits, and 24 hurries on 570 pass rush snaps, a pathetic 7.0% rate for his position. He graded out 2^nd worst at his position in pass rush grade and 3^rd worst overall. That was not only a massive overpay, but he’ll block one of the best young pass rushers in the NFL from starting. This whole scheme change looks like a mistake.

Opposite him, Trent Cole isn’t a natural fit for the 3-4 either, though he’ll keep his starting job. Going into last season, Cole was one of the best pass rushers in the NFL. In 2008, he was ProFootballFocus’ 6^th ranked 4-3 defensive end. In 2009, he ranked 3^rd and in 2010 and 2011 he led the way at the position. However, he struggled by his standards in 2012, grading 22^nd. He had 4 sacks, 13 hits, and 29 hurries on 432 pass rush snaps, a 10.6% pass rush rate, good, but well below his standards. Those 4 sacks paled in comparison to the 63 he had in the previous 6 seasons combined.

If the Eagles were still running a 4-3, I’d like his chances for a bounce back season, but instead he has to learn a whole new 3-4 scheme, one that he’s not a natural fit for at 6-3 270. Going into his age 31 season, I don’t see him getting much better this season. He’s reportedly looked like a “fish out of water” in this new system this off-season. He’ll probably only have a positive impact in sub packages rushing the passer from a 4 man front. With no guaranteed money on his contract after this season, this could sadly be his final season in Philadelphia.

Another player who doesn’t fit the 3-4 defense is DeMeco Ryans. In fact, the Texans traded him for a 4^th round pick last off-season because he didn’t fit their 3-4. He was ProFootballFocus’ 17^th ranked middle linebacker last season in Philadelphia 4-3 playing every down, but in 2011, he was just a two-down linebacker in Houston’s 3-4 and graded out just about average, 22^nd at his position. He can’t be happy about this switch. While he’ll continue to play every down, it’s really only because they don’t have another option.

The only returning linebacker who is probably happy about this switch is Mychal Kendricks, a 2012 2^nd round pick who played in a 3-4 in college at California. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 42^nd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker out of 43 eligible as rookie in 2012, particularly struggling against the run. He should be better in his 2^nd season in the league in a more natural position, but then again, he couldn’t exactly have been worse. I still don’t expect big things from him.

Grade: B-

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Secondary

As bad as the Eagles were defensively last season, 29^th in the NFL allowing 27.8 points per game, their secondary was by far their worst defensive unit of all. Not only they did completely fail to force turnovers (as I mentioned earlier), they ranked 26^th in the NFL allowing 7.6 YPA. They also struggled to tackle, missing 62 as a unit. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Nnamdi Asomugha graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 98^th and 101^st ranked cornerbacks out of 113 eligible, while Nate Allen and Kurt Coleman graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 84^th and 85^th ranked safeties out of 88 eligible.

Credit them for bringing in an entirely new starting crew in the secondary. Asomugha and Rodgers-Cromartie are both gone, while Allen and Coleman are mere reserves at the moment and might not even make the final 53 man roster. However it’s unclear how much of an upgrade they’ll be (though they should force more takeaways, if only because of how inconsistent that is on a year-to-year basis).

At cornerback, they brought in Bradley Fletcher from St. Louis and Cary Williams from Baltimore. Williams will probably be their #1 cornerback because he’s, by the default, the better of the two. The 2008 7^th round pick has graded out as a league average played in 2 seasons as a starter though so there’s not a lot to get excited about here other than the fact that he’s not Asomugha or Rodgers-Cromartie.

Fletcher, meanwhile, was a 3^rd round pick in the 2009 draft. His only season as a starter was 2010 when he graded out slightly above average. In 2011, he missed pretty much the whole season with a torn ACL, playing just 4 games. When he returned in 2012, it was in a reduced role as he played just 374 snaps, including just 20 in the final 7 weeks of the season after getting benched for rookie Trumaine Johnson as the 3^rd cornerback. The Eagles are taking a chance that another year removed from that torn ACL will allow him to bounce back and become a solid starter again.

Brandon Boykin will remain the nickel back. He was the only defensive back who graded out above average for them last season, grading out just above average on 526 snaps as a rookie. He only fell to the 4^th round because of an injury and because he was 5-9. If he was 6-0 and healthy he would have gone in the 1^st round and I thought he was the best cover cornerback in that draft class after Morris Claiborne. He carved out a niche on the slot and will only be better in his 2^nd season in the league. He’s a bright spot.

At safety, the Eagles rolled the dice with two injury prone safeties, bringing in Kenny Phillips from the Giants and Patrick Chung from New England. Phillips is one of the best safeties in the NFL when healthy, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 7^th and 6^th ranked safety in 2010 and 2011 respectively. Even in 2012, when he played just 304 snaps with injury, he still graded out as their 15^th ranked safety despite the limited playing time. In addition to last season’s knee problems, he was also limited to 719 snaps in his first two seasons in the league in 2008 and 2009 with knee problems and he’s already had microfracture surgery. It’s a risk that could definitely pay off, but it’s a big risk nonetheless.

Chung, meanwhile, has missed 14 games in the last 4 seasons since the Patriots took him in the 2^nd round out of Oregon in 2009. He’s played pretty well when healthy and the Oregon connection with Chip Kelly probably had a lot to do with why they brought him in. Kelly is going to know his former player better than maybe any other coach in the NFL. He’s still a risky addition. If either gets hurt, that would mean that Allen, Coleman, 5^th round rookie Earl Wolff, or Colt Anderson, a special teamer who struggled in 4 starts last season, would see action.

Grade: C+

Head Coach

Chip Kelly is the biggest Head Coach mystery in the NFL. Not only do we not know if his offense will work in the NFL, we don’t even know what type of offense he’s going to run. He’s done a great job of keeping things secretive this off-season. He’s clearly a smart man with innovative ideas (not just offensively, but in how he has his team practice). He has a great deal of collegiate success and he’s much more versatile than he’s given credit for, but it’s very tough to give him a grade. I have no idea how the Chip Kelly era in Philadelphia will go.

Grade: B

Overall

The Eagles will once again struggle defensively largely due to an ill-advised switch to a 3-4 base defensive scheme that their personnel doesn’t fit, but they should be improved over last season as I expect them to force more takeaways. Offensively, their turnover number should go down and they’ll probably have better health with Jason Peters, Todd Herremans, DeSean Jackson, and LeSean McCoy all coming back from injuries that cost them serious time last season.

They won’t be a good team turnover wise, but even if they were to improve to -10 from -24 it would do them a world of difference. They actually outgained opponents by 174 yards last season, despite a 4-12 record, and were only -0.2 in terms of yards per play differential. They play in too tough of conference though to make the playoffs and they might still be the worst team in their division.

I have them going 2-4 in divisional action, splitting with 2 of Dallas, Philadelphia, or the Giants. Outside the division, they host San Diego, Kansas City, Arizona, Detroit, and Chicago. Detroit and Chicago should be tough ones, but San Diego and Arizona are easier so I could see them winning 2 or 3 of those games at home. They also go to Denver, Tampa Bay, Oakland, Green Bay, and Minnesota. They should win in Oakland and Minnesota and Tampa Bay will be winnable, but Denver and Green Bay won’t be. I think they’ll win 2 of those games and finish with 7 wins, an improvement, but not enough to get into the playoffs.

Projection: 7-9 4^th in NFC East

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Washington Redskins 2013 NFL Season Preview

July 20, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Commanders, Uncategorized

Introduction

Last season, the Redskins won 10 games, including their last 7 regular season games, and could have easily won at least one playoff game, up 14-0 before Robert Griffin hurt his knee and became a shadow of his healthy self for the remainder of the game, before eventually tearing his ACL late in the 4^th quarter. Injuries were the story of the season for the Redskins. Three of their 6 losses (their first 3 losses of the season) were largely the result of injuries.

First, the Redskins lost Josh Wilson, Adam Carriker, and Brian Orakpo in a week 2 loss by a field goal in St. Louis. Then, they lost Trent Williams in an eventual loss to the Bengals. Finally, Griffin himself went down with a lead in an eventual loss to the Falcons. If not for those injuries, they could have had an even better record. Overall, they ranked 29^th in the NFL in adjusted games lost to injury last year. And in spite of that, they still made the playoffs with a good chance at a playoff win, and they finished the season as ranked 8^th in DVOA (6^th in weighted DVOA, which puts higher weight on games later in the season).

However, injuries remain a concern going into 2013. Brian Orakpo is expected to return and he’ll be a big time “addition” and they may, overall, on the season lose less to injury, the status of Robert Griffin’s knee is a serious concern. His knee knocked him out of action twice (after a concussion knocked him out the first time around), causing him to miss the end of the Baltimore game, the entirety of the Cleveland game, and severely limited him against Seattle in the playoffs, before knocking him out for good.

He’s expected to be ready for week 1 of this season, but he has a history of knee problems so it’s unclear if he’ll be able to stay healthy for all 16 games and at what percent of his peak ability he’ll be able to play. They’re already talking about limiting his carries, which is such a big part of his game. There’s significant sophomore slump potential for him for that reason.

The sophomore slump isn’t limited to individual players. Teams who have big win improvements usually the regress the following season, on average about half of the improvement. The Redskins improved 5 games last season so they can be expected to regress about 2.5 wins, though that’s obviously just an average. They could regression fewer or more wins than that or even improve, but the concept is worth noting.

I think they’ll lose fewer than 2.5 wins off that 10 win total, but I do expect some regression because they were so reliant on winning the turnover battle last season. The Redskins turned the ball over just 14 times in 2012, as opposed to 31 takeaways, a +17 differential. That tends to be inconsistent on a year-to-year basis, however.

Griffin threw just 5 interceptions all season on 393 attempts, a ridiculous, but unsustainable 1.3% interception rate. For comparison sake, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have career interception rates of 2.7%, while Tom Brady has a career interception rate of 2.1%. Even Aaron Rodgers, who has the lowest interception rate in NFL history among eligible quarterbacks, has a career interception rate of 1.7%.

Griffin is good, but he’s not THAT good. Tom Brady had an even better interception rate of 0.8% in 2010 before seeing that “balloon” to 2.0% in 2011. Griffin will see his “balloon” as well, especially if he plays hurt. And if Kirk Cousins has to play several games, it will really hurt their team turnover rate. Cousins flashed in limited action last season, but still had an interception rate of 6.3%. That’s unsustainably high and a small sample size, but he’ll be a clear downgrade interception-wise if he has to step into the lineup for a significant period of time.

Griffin is never going to throw a ton of interceptions though, and not just because he’s a great quarterback. It’s because, at least the way they ran things last season, they are a run heavy team. They rely heavily on Alfred Morris on the ground and Robert Griffin taking off on his own, and Griffin averaged just 26.2 pass attempts per game in his 15 starts, among the lowest in the NFL. He could see that number increase if they want to cut his carries to protect him, but he’ll probably never be tossing it around 35 times per game.

However, when you run as much as the Redskins do, you run the risk of fumbling and the Redskins certainly did a lot of that last season, fumbling 26 times, tied for 4^th most in the NFL. However, they lost just 6 of those fumbles and overall they recovered a league leading 67.4% of fumbles that hit the ground, best in the NFL. That’s unsustainable and largely luck. For example, they wouldn’t have even made the playoffs last season if they hadn’t recovered their own fumble in the end zone against the Giants in a must win game last season. I don’t think they’ll dominate the turnover battle nearly as much as they did last season and that will lead to some of the win total regression that usually follows big win improvements.

Quarterbacks

I wrote about Griffin’s unsustainable interception rate in the opening, but other than that I have nothing but positive things to write about him. He was the rightful Offensive Rookie of the Year in a stacked year for that award and if it weren’t for his injury concerns, I’d say he has the best future of any of the young quarterbacks in the NFL today. Here was my argument for him being Offensive Rookie of the Year.

I’d like to start this by saying that I don’t see Andrew Luck as a legitimate contender for this award. Stats aren’t everything, but sometimes stats are too blatant to ignore. Griffin and Wilson were 3rd and 4th in QB rating, Luck was 26th. He took the Colts from 2 wins to 11 wins, but he did it against an incredibly easy schedule and with almost no convincing wins. He won just 2 games by more than a touchdown and just 3 games against .500 or better teams. A 9-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less is impressive, as were his league leading seven game winning drives, but when you remember most of those came against the likes of Tennessee, Detroit, Kansas City, and Buffalo, it’s not so impressive.

So that leaves us with Robert Griffin and Russell Wilson from arguably the best rookie quarterback class ever. I’m going with Griffin. Russell Wilson was never counted on to be a savior. The Seahawks won 7 games last year with 14 games of a banged up Tarvaris Jackson (7-7) and 2 games of Charlie Whitehurst (0-2) under center. They had the #7 scoring defense in 2011 and the #1 scoring defense in 2012. Wilson, as good as he was, had plenty of help.

Griffin, meanwhile, was the Redskins’ savior. They literally put all of their eggs in one basket with him, trading away three 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick for him, naming him the starting quarterback about 2 days after the draft, and building their entire new innovative offense around him. They asked him to single handedly turn around a 5-win team and he did that.

The Redskins’ had the league’s 21st rated defense in 2011 and it was even worse in 2012, despite having much less pressure on them thanks to the offense, as they ranked 22nd. Injuries were to blame as they were without top pass rusher Brian Orakpo for most of the year and also lost starters Brandon Meriweather and Adam Carriker for most of the year as well.

Injuries weren’t limited to defense, as Griffin was playing without expected right tackle Jammal Brown all season, lost talented tight end Fred Davis midseason, and played without #1 receiver Pierre Garcon for most of the year. And he still took them to the playoffs, where they were leading Wilson’s Seahawks 14-0 before he got hurt (it’s not a post-season award, but this is worth mentioning).

Plus, unlike Wilson, Griffin played well all year. Through 8 games, Wilson had 8 touchdowns to 7 interceptions (with one touchdown that should have been an interception) and the Seahawks were 4-4. After a 5 interception in two weeks stretch, in which the Seahawks lost to the Rams and barely beat the Panthers, there were calls for Wilson to be benched. Griffin never played that badly. He never had a multi-interception game, throwing just 5 all year, and even when the Redskins were 3-6 heading into the bye, Griffin still had an 8 to 3 touchdown to interception ratio.

Again, injuries are the one concern. He takes a lot of hits because of his style of play and unlike guys like Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton, he’s not particularly big and sturdy. He now has a concerning history of knee injuries dating back to his collegiate days and he might also be a walking (well…running) concussion. Injuries are the reason I even have to discuss Kirk Cousins here when I usually don’t talk about backup quarterbacks. We could be seeing him play significant action this season.

Cousins was an unconventional pick, to say the least, when the Redskins drafted him in the 4^th round in the same draft they traded 3 first round picks and a second round pick to acquire Robert Griffin. However, there’s nothing wrong with using a mid-round pick on a backup quarterback. Teams with established starting quarterbacks (Giants, Patriots, Steelers, etc.) have done it in the very recent past. If you’re drafting for starting needs in the 4^th round, you’re in trouble.

There was never going to be any quarterback controversy considering their relative price tags and it was highly unlikely that Griffin would be threatened by Cousins. Griffin once had the confidence to say he’d go to Indianapolis and beat out Peyton Manning if that was what he had to do to start. It was a non-story. Any idiot could have seen that (hello Skip Bayless).

However, Cousins is now seen as one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL and I don’t think that’s quite deserved yet. He’s known for leading the comeback against Baltimore and beating Cleveland in a spot start, but he attempted just 2 throws against Baltimore and the Browns are, well, the Browns. He also struggled mightily in relief against both Atlanta and Seattle, combining to go 8 for 19 for 142 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. There’s a reason he went in the 4^th round and he’s yet to prove he’s anything but a backup quarterback in the NFL. If they have to count on him to play significant snaps in 2013, they’re in trouble.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

It can be easy to forget because of what Robert Griffin did, but RG3 wasn’t the Redskins’ only rookie sensation. 6^th round rookie Alfred Morris surprisingly won the starting job week 1 and did his best Terrell Davis impression for the rest of the season, rushing for 1613 yards and 13 touchdowns on 335 attempts. However, Morris owes a lot of his success to Griffin taking the attention off of him. Defenses had to focus on Griffin’s arm strength and running ability and, as a result, Morris had a lot of running room in their read option offense. Credit Morris for his vision, intelligence, and for wasting no movement, but it’s definitely worth noting that Morris rushed for just 3.2 yards per carry without Griffin against Cleveland.

Morris’ running success will largely be tied to Griffin’s success and Morris also provides very little on passing downs, catching just 11 passes for 77 yards. Even though Morris had 324 more carries than him, Evan Royster actually played 180 pass plays to Morris’ 293. Royster is the favorite to continue that passing down specialist role, but he’ll have to hold off the oft injured Roy Helu, who might be more talented. They also used late round picks on Chris Thompson (5^th round) and Jawan Jamison (7^th round) because that’s just Mike Shanahan’s thing.

I also have to give mention to fullback Darrel Young, even though I don’t normally mention fullbacks. Young had a major breakout season in his 4^th year in the league last season as he was a perfect fit for the read option offense and their zone blocking scheme. He was as big a part of their offensive success as any fullback in the NFL. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 6^th ranked fullback, 8^th in run blocking, and also contributed as a runner and a pass catcher, with 14 carries for 60 yards and 8 catches for 109 receiving yards.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

I mentioned Trent Williams earlier in the introduction in the injury section. He didn’t miss serious time or anything, but his absence for the majority of the game against Cincinnati really hurt their chances of winning that game in an eventual 7 point loss. That’s because the former 4^th overall pick from the 2010 NFL Draft class has emerged as one of the best left tackles in the game. His movement ability makes him a perfect fit for this offense.

He was ProFootballFocus’ 19^th ranked offensive tackle last season, 13^th among left tackles, and the prior season he graded out 26^th overall despite missing 6 games with injury and suspension. He’s very good in both pass protection and run blocking and his only issue is penalties and he’s totaled 16 in 26 games in the past 2 seasons. He is their only offensive lineman who had a strong season in both 2011 and 2012 and he’s a strong bet for another strong season.

Overall, they were a better offensive line in 2012 than 2011 without a lot of difference personnel wise. They went from being ProFootballFocus’ 30^th ranked run blocking offensive line to their 9^th ranked. They also improved in pass protection as well. They went from being 26^th ranked in pass protection grade and 28^th in pass block efficiency to 19^th and 17^th respectively in those two categories.

One of the big reasons for their improvement was the breakout season of center Will Mongtomery, who improved from a below average starter to ProFootballFocus’ 5^th ranked center in 2012. He’ll have to prove he can do it again, but he should be an asset for them. Chris Chester at right guard also had a big improvement, going from ProFootballFocus’ 8^th worst eligible guard in 2011 to their 15^th best in 2012. 2011 looks like the outlier when you look at his career, as he’s usually been an above average starter, though he’s never done anything like what he did in 2012.

Right tackle Tyler Polumbus is the only player on their offensive line who has graded out below average in each of the last two seasons, playing really poorly in both seasons. In 2011, he only played 289 snaps as a reserve and wasn’t eligible for ProFootballFocus’ rankings, but if he had been, he would have ranked 64^th out of 77 despite such a limited snap count. In 2012, he ranked 76^th out of 80 eligible and if he does win the starting job again this season, he won’t be any better. He’s been a terrible player whenever he’s been called upon in his career.

He will have to beat out Jeremy Trueblood and Tony Pashos for the job, but that won’t be that hard, even for Polumbus. Trueblood ranked 72th out of 76 eligible in 2011 and barely played in 2012, losing his job. Pashos, meanwhile, is heading into his age 33 season and coming off a season in which he didn’t play at all due to injury so while he’s had some solid years in the past, those days are probably long behind him. Tom Compton, a 2012 6^th round pick, could also be in the mix, but they seem to prefer him as the backup left tackle. Whoever starts at right tackle, probably Polumbus, it will be a position of serious weakness.

The other position of weakness on their offensive line last season was left guard, where Kory Lichtensteiger started after tearing his ACL and missing most of the 2011 season. Lichtensteiger held up very well in pass protection, but was terrible as a run blocker. There’s a reason they averaged just 4.4 yards per carry behind the left guard, as opposed to 5.5 yards per carry elsewhere. He was ProFootballFocus’ worst ranked run blocking guard and also commited 10 penalties, grading out 72th out of 81 eligible overall. He’s never really been that great. 2012 3^rd round pick Josh LeRibeus could push him for the job in camp, but I don’t know how much better he’ll be. Like right tackle, it’s a position of weakness, but they have a strong starter at left tackle and they should get good play at center and right guard again. It’s not a bad offensive line.

Grade: B

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

One area particularly hit by injuries was their receiving corps. The Redskins gave Pierre Garcon a 5-year, 42.5 million dollar contract last off-season, even though he had never had a 1000 yard season, despite playing with Peyton Manning for most of his career. The Redskins took a major chance giving Garcon that kind of money, banking on his natural athleticism and skill set allowing him to break out as the X receiver in Mike Shanahan’s offense, as the #1 target out of the shadows of others in Indianapolis’ loaded receiving corps, with Robert Griffin leading a downfield throw based offense. Garcon was only 25 and that point and the Redskins were really expecting a breakout year from him.

Midway into the 1st quarter of the Redskins’ week 1 game against the Saints last year, the Redskins looked pretty smart. Granted it was very, very early in the season, but Griffin targeted Garcon on 4 of his first 5 throws, including an 88 yard touchdown, as Garcon had 4 catches for 109 yards and a touchdown midway through the first quarter of an eventual upset of the Saints in New Orleans. However, Garcon hurt his foot and left the game immediately following his touchdown and did not return to the game, playing only 8 snaps total.

Garcon would return for week 4 and week 5, but he would only catch 4 passes for 44 yards in those 2 games, struggling through his injury and would not return again until week 11. Garcon was still not healthy after returning, only playing in 306 of his team’s 445 snaps over those 7 games, not exactly what the Redskins were hoping to get from their #1 receiver. However, Garcon was still very productive, in spite of his more limited role, catching 36 passes for 480 yards and 3 touchdowns in those 7 games.

Overall on the season, Garcon had 633 yards on 215 routes run, good for 2.94 yards per route run, 2nd in the NFL among eligible wide receivers behind Andre Johnson. He was targeted 63 times, giving him a very impressive yard per target rate of over 10 per and with 63 targets on 215 routes run, he was by far Robert Griffin’s favorite target to throw to when he was on the field. Griffin was also very efficient when throwing to him, completing 69.8% of his passes for 10.0 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception, a QB rating of 116.7, 14th in the NFL among eligible wide receivers. It’s clear that Garcon has a ton of upside in his role in Washington’s offense.

Garcon’s issue remains injuries as his foot is still not 100% and in addition he had off-season shoulder surgery. However, the shoulder is expected to be a non-issue and his foot should be better than it was last season. Assuming he plays close to a full set of snaps and isn’t overly limited on the field by his foot, Garcon could have an incredibly productive season, though much depends on Griffin’s health. Griffin is expected to throw more and run less to protect himself from injuries so the Redskins figure to pass more than the 442 times they did last year. Garcon could easily end up as one of the league’s top-10 receivers and a Pro-Bowler in 2013, but this is all speculative.

Despite all his issues, Garcon still led the team with 633 receiving yards, which speaks to their lack of depth after him. It’s not that their other receivers are bad, but they lack another impact receiver. In Garcon’s absence, Josh Morgan, Leonard Hankerson, and Santana Moss led the team in snaps played from the wide receiver position.

Josh Morgan, a marginal talent, had 48 catches for 510 yards and 2 touchdowns on 393 routes run and caught just 4 passes for more than 20 yards. Moss caught 41 passes for 573 yards and 8 touchdowns on 328 pass snaps as the primary slot receiver, but, at age 34, he could be very close to done. Hankerson, a 2011 3^rd round pick, caught 38 passes for 543 yards and 3 touchdowns on 307 routes run. He’s got the most upside of the aforementioned trio, but may never be anything more than a decent starting receiver. He’s going into his 3^rd year though and that’s when receivers tend to breakout, so we’ll see what he has.

Garcon wasn’t the only receiver they had miss serious time with injury. Tight end Fred Davis went down with a season ending torn Achilles early in their 7^th game of the season. He was brought back on a one year prove it deal that could pay dividends if he’s healthy. He’s only played in 18 full games over the past 2 seasons thanks to injury and suspension, but he has caught 82 passes for 1110 yards and 3 touchdowns in those 18 games, despite playing 12 of them with Rex Grossman as his quarterback. We’ll see how he bounces back after his injury, but he has great natural receiving ability. He’s not much of a blocker though.

In Davis’ absence, Logan Paulsen moved into the starting lineup. He’s pretty much the opposite of Davis, a good blocker, but little else. He caught just 25 passes for 308 yards and 1 touchdown on 265 pass snaps. He and Davis would work well together on two-tight end sets if Davis can stay healthy and bounce back. If Davis and Garcon can stay healthy and play well, this will be an improved receiving corps.

Grade: B

Defensive Line

I mentioned Adam Carriker in the injury section. He wasn’t exactly a big loss, but he was an injury worth noting. A well below average starter in 2011, Carriker went down with injury week 2 this season so he barely saw any action. He was replaced by Jarvis Jenkins, who actually played better than Carriker did in 2011, though he graded out below average overall because of his inability to get to the quarterback. They’ll compete for that job this season, but Jenkins likely has the upper hand. He also has the higher upside, as a 2011 2^nd round pick. Last season was his first in the NFL after a serious injury caused him to miss all of 2011. He could easily be better this season.

Whoever wins that battle will only play in base 3-4 packages as a 5-technique end. The other two starting defensive linemen, Stephen Bowen and Barry Cofield, play every down and stay in when they go to sub packages. Cofield lines up on the nose in base packages, but he’s really playing out of position. The 6-4 303 pounder is undersized for the position and has never been a good run player even back when he played with the Giants in their 4-3. Last year, he was at his worst against the run, as only one player graded out worse than him against the run on ProFootballFocus.

However, his pass rush ability makes up for it and it’s what makes him a dangerous player in sub packages. He had just 3 sacks last season, but 15 hits and 17 hurries on 505 pass rush snaps, a 6.9% pass rush rate. He’s a decent starter overall. Bowen is a decent starter overall as well, grading out just below average in each of the last 2 seasons as a starter, after excelling as a reserve in Dallas in 2010. Chris Baker is another player to note as a solid situational run stopper. He graded out above average on 206 snaps last season.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The big player returning from injury is Brian Orakpo, a top level rush linebacker who was also lost for the season in that week 2 game, tearing his pectoral. In 2011, he was excellent, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 7^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker, struggling against the run, but excelling as a pass rusher. He had 10 sacks, 6 hits, and 43 hurries on 390 pass rush snaps, a 15.1% pass rush rate. He ranked 4^th at his position in pass rush grade and 5^th in pass rush efficiency. His return to full strength would be huge.

Opposite him, Ryan Kerrigan stepped up big time in his 2^nd season in the league. The 16^th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft did struggle against the run, but had 9 sacks, 9 hits, and 51 hurries on 587 pass rush snaps, a 11.8% rate. He was ProFootballFocus’ 9^th ranked rush linebacker overall, 7^th ranked in terms of pass rush, and ranked 8^th in pass rush efficiency. He could be even better with another year under his belt and with Orakpo back to take the pressure off of him. They could be a very formidable duo and, at the very least, they’ll benefit from Rob Jackson and Lorenzo Alexander not splitting reps at one rush linebacker spot. They did some nice things, but struggled to get to the quarterback. Alexander is gone and Jackson will be a reserve.

At middle linebacker, their situation is not nearly as good. Perry Riley, who played very well in the 2^nd half of 2011 after taking over as the starter, did not continue that in 2012. He wasn’t bad, but the 2010 4^th round pick did grade out below average. I don’t know if he’ll be much better than that in 2013. London Fletcher, meanwhile, is the bigger name, but he did not play well at all, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 51^st ranked middle linebacker out of 53 eligible.

He couldn’t cover or shed blocks in the running game at all. Only 34 of his 115 total tackles were within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage on 1^st down, 6 yards on 2^nd down, or the full distance on 3^rd or 4^th down and he also missed a position leading 21 tackles, among the most in the NFL at any position. He also allowed more receiving yards and receptions in coverage than any other middle linebacker and only Perry Riley allowed more touchdowns among middle linebackers.

He made his 4^th consecutive Pro-Bowl, but only on name recognition (and maybe to make up for the fact that he somehow didn’t make a Pro-Bowl until 2009). Fletcher has had a great career and is arguably the all-time leader in tackles depending on who you ask and his 240 consecutive games streak is incredibly impressive. He’s been long overlooked and should be a Hall of Famer eventually and he might be the best undrafted free agent of all time, but now he’s actually overrated based on name. Heading into his age 38 season, he’s the oldest defensive player in the NFL and should hang them up soon. This is probably his last season.

If either Riley or Fletcher struggles to the point where they are benched, Keenan Robinson, drafted in the 4^th round in 2012 to be a potential successor to Fletcher, would enter the starting lineup. I don’t know how much positive we can expect from him though. He played a nondescript 68 snaps as a rookie and 4^th rounders rarely become starters.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Redskins ranked 22^nd in the NFL, allowing 7.4 yards per attempt last season, and it doesn’t look like things will be much better this season. They only made one change in their top-3 cornerbacks, swapping out Cedric Griffin as the 3^rd cornerback for free agent acquisition EJ Biggers. Biggers actually graded out above average last season with Tampa Bay, but the 2009 7^th round pick was one of the worst cornerbacks in the league in 2011 and graded out significantly below average in the two seasons he saw significant action in Tampa Bay. He reunites with former Head Coach Raheem Morris, who is the defensive backs coach in Washington, but Biggers had his worst years under Morris so I don’t know how that will help.

The Redskins did cut starting cornerback DeAngelo Hall this off-season, but he returns after taking a significant pay cut. He couldn’t find much money on the open market and it’s understandable why. Hall has graded out negatively in 4 of the last 5 seasons after signing that massive contract with the Raiders before the 2008 season (he didn’t even last a whole season before being cut). In 2012, he allowed 76 catches on 114 attempts for 1050 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 9 passes and committing 8 penalties. Only Sean Smith was thrown on more than him, only Patrick Robinson allowed more passing yards, and only Cortland Finnegan allowed more receptions. He played the run well and blitzed well to save his grade, but he’s not good in coverage at all. He ranked 90^th out of 113 eligible cornerbacks in pure coverage grade.

The lone solid player they had at cornerback last season was Josh Wilson, their de facto #1 cornerback. He’s been slightly above a league average starter in the past 2 seasons since an improbable breakout season in Baltimore in 2010 landed him a 3-year deal. They also have 2^nd round rookie David Amerson in the mix, but he probably won’t see much action this season. He was drafted more for the future with Hall and Biggers signed to 1-year deals and Wilson entering his contract year.

Things aren’t much better at safety. Their best safety is probably Brandon Meriweather, but he can’t stay healthy. He played just 44 snaps last season thanks to a lingering knee injury, which he had 2 separate setbacks on, including a torn ACL suffered week 11. His status for the start of the season is in doubt and it’s not like he’s that great of a player when healthy anyway. He’s made 2 Pro Bowls, but that was largely a farce and he bounced around to 3 different teams in a calendar year after being a final cut of the Patriots before the 2011 season. Before grading out positively on those mere 44 snaps last season, he graded out negatively in each of the last 2 seasons.

Assuming he’s healthy, Meriweather will start in one spot, but that’s a doubt and it’s unclear who will start in the other spot. None of the options are that impressive. Reed Doughty, Jordan Pugh, and DeJon Gomes have never shown themselves to be starting caliber players while Phillip Thomas and Bacarri Rambo are mere rookies, Thomas going in the 4^th round and Rambo in the 6^th. Amerson could also be in the mix because he has safety size, but he’s just a rookie too and he’d be learning a new position. Thomas is probably the early favorite, and while he has talent, it’s very, very hard to rely on a 4^th round rookie starter. There’s just not a lot of talent in this secondary overall.

Grade: C

Head Coach

There was some doubt for a while in his first 2 seasons in Washington, but Mike Shanahan showed last season why he is still one of the better Head Coaches in the NFL. He has two Super Bowl rings and while he hasn’t won one since 1998, he has the pieces in Washington that you could envision him eventually winning another one. Robert Griffin and Alfred Morris did their best John Elway and Terrell Davis impressions as mere rookies last season.

Grade: A-

Overall

While this team rightfully has very high hopes for the future, I think they’ll take one step back this season before taking two steps before in 2014 and beyond. It’s just how these types of things work. They’ll have a bit of a sophomore slump. While they’ll have better injury luck overall, Griffin’s situation with the knee and the fact that they were so reliant on winning the turnover battle last season will hurt them.

In the division, I have them going 3-3, either splitting with all 3 teams or splitting with one of Dallas or New York, getting swept by the other and sweeping the Eagles. They’re the 3^rd best team in this division, though it’s a tight one. Outside of the division, they have the toughest schedule of any team in the division because they won the division last season. They host Detroit, Chicago, San Diego, Kansas City and San Francisco. San Francisco will be a really tough game, but they should win at least 2, probably 3 of the other 4 games. On top of that, they go to Green Bay, Oakland, Denver, Minnesota, and Atlanta. Green Bay, Denver, and Atlanta will be tough places to win, but they should win the other 2, giving them 8 total wins. That’s not quite that aforementioned 2.5-game expected decline, but it’s close. That sounds reasonable.

Projection: 8-8 3^rd in NFC East

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers trade CB Eric Wright to the San Francisco 49ers

July 19, 2013 stevenlourie 49ers, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Trade for Tampa Bay: When the Buccaneers signed Eric Wright to a 5-year, 37.5 million dollar contract this off-season, it looked like an absolutely ridiculous deal. Wright was one of the worst starting cornerbacks in the NFL the prior two seasons (just ask Cleveland and Detroit fans). There was a reason he was available for a 1-year deal the previous off-season before the 2011 season. In 2011 with the Lions, he ranked 105 of 109 eligible cornerbacks by ProFootballFocus last season, allowing a completion percentage of 62.5%, 7.0 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, all while ranking below average against the run. He was actually thrown on more than any cornerback in the league except Jabari Greer, being thrown on 120 times. It was a move that reeked of desperation for a team with no defensive back talent and plenty of cap space to burn.

In 2012, he graded out below average on 518 snaps before the best possible thing that could happen for the Buccaneers happened: Wright got suspended for 4 games for performance enhancing drugs. That suspension voided all the guaranteed money on Wright’s deal and gave them all the leverage in the off-season, as they restructured his contract down to 1 year and a non-guaranteed 1.5 million for the 2013 season (rather than just cutting him outright). However, he was arrested again for DUI earlier this month (he had a previous arrest last off-season) and that was apparently the last straw for the Buccaneers, who would have cut him outright (penalty free) and owed him no money, if they couldn’t find a trade partner. Given that, credit them for actually getting something for him, even if it is just a conditional late round pick.

They won’t really miss Wright. Obviously they have Darrelle Revis, but they also have Jonathan Banks and Leonard Johnson. Banks, a 2^nd round rookie, will step into the starting lineup for Wright and while he’s unproven, he has much more upside. Johnson, meanwhile, could be a diamond in the rough as the 3^rd cornerback. He went undrafted in 2012 after running a 4.71 40 at 5-10 196, but played well as a rookie, grading out above average on ProFootballFocus. He’s a good press cornerback and will probably move Banks to the slot in 3-cornerback sets.

Grade: A

Trade for San Francisco: This is a pretty low risk trade for the 49ers because they aren’t giving up much (late round picks have a hard time making their roster because of their depth) and because he doesn’t have any guaranteed money, but he’s still not a great talent and there’s a chance he could be facing another suspension after another off-season DUI (last year’s was a felony and this was a misdemeanor, so that’s progress). He’ll compete with Nnamdi Asomugha and incumbent Chris Culliver for the 3^rd cornerback job, which gets a lot of action in San Francisco’s defense. Whoever wins that battle will line up opposite Tarell Brown with Carlos Rogers (who led the NFL in slot snaps played last season) on the slot. Wright is probably the favorite and could be the most talented of the bunch. He’s a good fit for the 49ers’ coverage scheme and their front 7 could make him look better than he is.

Grade: B

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New York Giants 2013 NFL Season Preview

July 19, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Giants, Uncategorized

Introduction

The Giants won the Super Bowl in 2011, but failed to make the playoffs in 2012. What happened? Well, nothing really. Their win total didn’t change at all, but while 9 wins allowed them to sneak into the playoffs and eventually take it the distance in 2011, 9 wins had them on the outside looking in last season. It was as I predicted before the season and just a reminder that the Giants were not an elite team, but rather a good team capable of getting hot and going the distance (as they’ve done on 2 occasions). In fact, in 9 seasons of the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era, they’ve surpassed 10 wins just twice. If they had made the playoffs in 2012, they would have been one of the scarier teams in the post-season on their sheer level of unpredictability, but, at the end of the day, they didn’t.

You could actually argue that they played better in 2012 than in 2011, at least regular season wise. They scored more and allowed fewer points in the 2012 season than in 2011, as they improved their offensive output from 24.8 points per game to 26.8 points per game and improved their defense from 25.0 points per game allowed to 21.5 points per game allowed. While they had a Pythagorean Expectation of 8 wins in 2011, allowing roughly the same amount of points as they scored, in 2012, they had a Pythagorean Expectation of 10 wins, 9^th best in the NFL and behind only Chicago in terms of non-playoff teams. They also ranked 7^th in DVOA.

Usually that is a predictor of a future increase of wins and on top of that, they did so despite a lot of injuries, ranking 25^th in the NFL in adjusted games lost. However, there are a few reasons why they won’t have a big wins increase. For one, while they suffered a lot of injuries last year, none of them were to key contributors, which the exception of Hakeem Nicks and Kenny Phillips, the latter of whom is no longer with the team.

They didn’t lose anyone like Jason Pierre-Paul to injury, but that’s a real concern for them going into 2013 as, in June, JPP had the same back procedure that everyone is freaking out that Gronk had. He’s in doubt for the first month of the season and, unlike Hakeem Nicks, his absence can’t be masked by Eli Manning and strong receiving depth. After Manning, JPP is their most indispensible player and they already have concerns about his health and the season hasn’t started yet. They also had the oft injured William Beatty healthy last season and playing well at the all-important left tackle position, but that might not continue considering he played just 1261 snaps in his first 3 seasons combined due to injury.

They also were really reliant on winning the turnover battle in 2012, with a +14 turnover differential. That tends to be inconsistent on a year-to-year basis, however. For example, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers on average turn the ball over 25.5 times the following season, while teams that turn the ball over 35 or more times turn the ball over 28.1 times the following season. Teams with 20 or fewer takeaways take the ball away an average of 25.3 times the following season, while teams with 35 or more takeaways take the ball away an average of 27.3 times the following season. Teams with a turnover differential of +15 or higher have a turnover differential of +3.6 the following season, while teams with a turnover differential of -15 have a turnover differential of +1.5 the following season.

Winning the turnover battle was a big part of the reason why they were able to rank 12^th in the NFL in opponent’s scoring, allowing 21.5 points per game, despite serious issues in their defensive back 7. Those issues haven’t really been fixed this season and things could be even worse if JPP has to miss significant time with injury. They’ll be a better team than they were last season and I don’t doubt they’ll be able to match the 26.8 points per game they scored last season, especially if Nicks can stay healthy, but their issues defensively could keep them out of the playoffs in the absolutely loaded NFC. Their chances of winning the NFC East, the NFC’s weakest division, might be better than their chances of winning a wild card spot.

Quarterbacks

Eli Manning proved he’s an elite quarterback by winning his 2^nd Super Bowl, but as far as elite quarterbacks go, he’s on the lower end of the spectrum. He rarely posts huge regular season numbers like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, or his brother Peyton, or huge win totals, and the Giants have only once ranked in the top-5 in scoring offense.

In 11 years as a starter, Tom Brady has missed the playoffs once and won a playoff game in all but 3 years. Peyton Manning has missed the playoffs just twice in his 14 season long NFL career, though he has suffered 8 exits without a postseason win. Aaron Rodgers, though more inexperienced than the quarterbacks already mentioned, has missed the playoffs once in his 5 year NFL career and won at least won playoff game twice in those five years, the same amount as Eli Manning has in 9. Eli Manning has had two incredible six week stretches in his career, leading to those 2 Super Bowls, and I’m sure the Giants wouldn’t trade 2 Super Bowls in 5 years for anything, but there’s something to be said for consistency and consistent excellence.

He’s a very good quarterback capable of getting hot and taking a team the distance and he’s incredibly scary because you never know what you’re getting from him, he makes throws that are near impossible, more so than maybe any other quarterback in the NFL, he can come back from any hole, and he’s at his best when he’s doubted.

He’s also a big part of the reason why the Giants have frequent 2nd half swoons. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, the same season as Eli Manning became the starter, the Giants are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 30-42 in the second 8 games of the season. Eli Manning is not completely to blame, but his numbers are noticeably worse in the 2nd half of the season. His completion percentage drops about 3%. His YPA drops about 7/10ths of a yard per attempt. And his touchdown to interception ratio goes from 111/61 to 100/83.

This year, he completed 62.6% of his passes in the first half of the season, as opposed to 56.6% in the 2nd half, while averaging 7.8 YPA to 6.8. Only his touchdown to interception ratio (12/8 to 14/7) was improved in the 2nd half of the season. He once again had a strong season overall and you can’t really blame the Giants’ failure to make the playoffs on him, but he didn’t drag the Giants into the playoffs like the aforementioned trio has in the past.

Grade: A-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

One of the reasons why, in 2012, Eli led the Giants to the most points he’s ever led the Giants to in his career is his strong receiving corps. Even with Hakeem Nicks essentially missing 4 games and being limited in others, playing just 683 snaps and catching just 53 passes for a career low 692 yards and 3 touchdowns, the Giants still surrounded Eli with good receivers. Everyone knows about Victor Cruz. He didn’t match the 82 catches for 1536 yards and 9 touchdowns he had in 2011, but it would have been unreasonable to expect him to do that. He still caught 86 passes for 1092 yards and 10 touchdowns and he could do even better than that this season. His one issue last season was his 12 drops.

In Nicks’ absence, Domenik Hixon, Rueben Randle, and Ramses Barden combined for 72 catches for 1085 yards and 5 touchdowns. Hixon is gone, but Randle should be improved as the clear #3 receiver in his 2^nd season in the NFL, after going in the 2^nd round in the 2012 NFL Draft. Louis Murphy and Barden will serve as solid depth receivers. Randle will give them 3 talented wide receivers with Cruz and Nicks, assuming the latter can stay healthy. Remember, he averaged 78 catches for 1122 yards and 9 touchdowns per season in 2010 and 2011 despite missing 4 combined games in those 2 seasons. He’s never played a full 16 game set and I wouldn’t expect that to change this season, but I like his chances to get back over 1000 yards and give the Giants two 1000 yard receivers.

Tight end Martellus Bennett is gone and he was one of the better all-around tight ends in the NFL last season, but they’ve signed Brandon Myers to replace him and he should be able to do so coming over from Oakland. The Raiders had one of the least talented rosters in the NFL last season thanks to a decade of poor drafting and recent salary cap hell. One of several positions without a clear proven starter for the Raiders last year was tight end. When 4th year tight end Brandon Myers, a 2009 6th round pick, won the starting job, he was described as a decent blocker and little else and for good reason.

He had just 32 career catches in his 3 year career to that point, including just 7 in 5 starts in place of an injured Kevin Boss the year before. He wasn’t a premium draft pick, going in the 6th round and he didn’t have special athleticism. After not being invited to The Combine, he ran a 4.79 40 at 6-3 250 at his Pro Day in 2009, with a 31 inch vertical and 17 reps of 225.

However, Myers really surprised as a pass catcher, catching 79 passes for 804 yards and 4 touchdowns, leading the team in receiving ahead of bigger names like Darrius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore. He did this on just 101 targets, a very impressive 78% catch rate, and he was sure handed, dropping just 6 passes. He ranked 8^th among eligible tight ends in terms of yards per route run.

While he managed just 10.2 yards per catch, and 3.6 yards after the catch per catch, both towards the bottom of the league, he did break 8 tackles and, because of his high catch rate, the Raiders actually averaged a very impressive 8.0 YPA throwing to Myers last year, over a full yard over the 6.8 YPA Raider quarterbacks averaged on the season. Overall, Raider quarterbacks had a 100.7 QB rating when throwing to Myers, well above their overall 82.5 rating.

Surprisingly, the one area Myers really struggled with was blocking, both pass and run blocking, which was supposed to be the only thing he was good at. No tight end graded out worse as a run blocker on ProFootballFocus than Myers, which actually led to him being the 2nd worst rated overall tight end, despite his great play in the passing game. However, it was revealed after the season he played most of last year with a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder, which really effected his blocking. With an off-season to heal, he should do a better job of blocking in 2013.

Myers hit the open market this off-season and did not command a big deal, signing for just 2.25 million over 1 year in New York with the Giants. One of the things that is noteworthy is that Giants tight end coach the legendary Mike Pope requires his tight ends to be great blockers to get on the field so the fact that they signed him and are listing him as a starter is a good sign for his ability to bounce back as a blocker.

One other thing about New York and tight ends that is noteworthy is that Giants tight ends always seem to be productive in the passing game, regardless of who they are. Mike Pope is a big part of the reason for this, as is the offensive system and Eli Manning’s tendency to throw to the tight end. The Giants took Jeremy Shockey in the 1st round in 2002 and turned him into one of the league’s best tight ends.

Injuries didn’t allow him to play a full 16 game set in 6 seasons with the Giants, but he averaged 70 catches for 796 yards and 5 touchdowns per 16 games, back before the days of tight ends really putting up huge numbers. For his efforts, he was named to the Pro-Bowl 4 times in 6 seasons. However, when he got hurt down the stretch in their eventual Super Bowl winning 2007 season, a no name rookie named Kevin Boss took over and did well enough for the Giants to win without Shockey.

Boss ended up driving Shockey out of town that off-season, as the Giants got a 2nd and 5th round pick for him from the Saints, a good haul. The Saints, however, would not get what they paid for, as Shockey last just 3 years in New Orleans, averaging 59 catches for 615 yards and 3 touchdowns per 16 games despite Drew Brees throwing him the ball. He spent a final nondescript season in Carolina in 2011 before being forced to retire (technically he hasn’t retired, but if you’ve been out of the league for at least a year, you’re essentially retired) at age 31, due to lack of interest in his services around the league.

Boss, meanwhile, did a solid job filling in for Shockey, averaging 39 catches for 527 yards and 6 touchdowns per 16 games in 3 years as a starter, despite being just a 5th round pick in 2007. He earned himself a multiyear deal in Oakland and lasted just one year before getting cut. He then went to Kansas City, where the same thing happened and now he remains a free agent at just age 29, after 31 catches in the last 2 years combined.

Boss was replaced by Jake Ballard, a similar player, a blocker first that put up surprising pass catching numbers in 2011, catching 38 passes for 604 yards and 4 touchdowns. After he tore his ACL in the Giants’ Super Bowl victory, the Giants waived him and replaced him with Martellus Bennett. Bennett was a former 2^nd round pick of the Cowboys, but largely a blocker first who had caught just 85 passes for 848 yards and 4 touchdowns in 4 seasons. Bennett nearly matched those numbers in his one year in New York, catching 55 passes for 626 yards and 5 touchdowns, before signing a multiyear deal with the Bears, only to be replaced by Myers on the cheap.

Myers now comes to New York as the most NFL proven tight end they’ve brought to the team in at least over a decade and he should be able to continue to get his in the passing game as the 3rd option after Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. Assuming he also bounces back as a blocker, by the end of the season, we may be able to call Myers one of the most complete all-around tight ends in the NFL. Not bad for a 6th round pick with limited athleticism. Even if Nicks misses some time again, Eli has plenty of players to talented players to throw to.

Grade: A

Running Backs

One of the other things that led to the Giants scoring a bunch of points in 2012 was the rebirth of their running game. In 2012, at least in the regular season, they ranked dead last in rushing yards and yards per carry, thanks to injuries Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs playing through injuries. However, in 2012, Bradshaw turned things around and power back Andre Brown emerged as a good complement to Bradshaw. Bradshaw is gone now, but 2012 1^st round pick David Wilson will take over his old role and split carries with Brown.

Brown rushed for 385 yards on 73 carries and also scored 8 times as the short yardage power back. He should get more carries this year because the coaching staff doesn’t 100% trust David Wilson yet and because Brown is the better passing down back. Brown could get double digit touchdowns this season, though Wilson will probably lead the team in rushing yards. Wilson showed a lot of explosiveness as a rookie, especially on special teams, but he only got 71 carries. That should be closer to 200 this season. Brown and Wilson will serve as a strong complement to the passing game.

Grade: B

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Offensive Line

The Giants really improved their offensive line play in 2012. After ranking 32^nd on ProFootballFocus on pass protection, 25^th in run blocking, and 32^nd in pass blocking efficiency in 2011, they ranked 18^th in pass protection, 4^th in run blocking, and 26^th in pass block efficiency in 2012. There were several big differences. One of the best differences was William Beatty staying healthy at left tackle. As I mentioned in the opening, Beatty, a 2009 2^nd round pick, played just 1261 snaps in his first 3 seasons in the NFL, but he put it all together in his contract year in 2012, playing all 16 games and graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 12^th ranked offensive tackle. I have questions about whether or not he can keep that up, especially now that he has long-term security with a 5-year contract.

Meanwhile, at left guard, Kevin Boothe had a breakout season in his first full season as a starter, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 20^th ranked guard. He’s already going into his age 30 season though and had never done anything like that in the past, struggling in limited action as a reserve throughout his career. Let’s see if he can do that again. Center David Baas and right guard Chris Snee also had much improved seasons in 2012. Snee’s poor 2011 season looks like the outlier in his career and, going into his age 31 season, he should once again be an above average starter. Baas, meanwhile, has been up and down in his career, playing both center and guard. He’s an average interior offensive starter at best.

Right tackle was the only spot on the line where they struggled last season, with Sean Locklear and David Diehl splitting time. In order to fix this problem, they drafted Justin Pugh in the first round. Pugh is a very accomplished collegiate left tackle, but was expected to fall out of the first round because of short arms. The Giants took him anyway and insisted they didn’t believe his short arms caused a problem on tape. They won’t be as big of an issue on the right side, but he may still end up at guard long term. Overall, it’s a talented offensive line, but it has a lot of questions and they should play somewhere between where they played in 2011 and 2012. They’ll once again score a bunch of points in 2013.

Grade: B

Defensive Line

I mentioned how Jason Pierre-Paul is the Giants 2^nd most indispensible player after Eli Manning. The common belief is that he had a down season in 2012, when he had 7 sacks, after having 16 in 2011. However, that’s the trouble with just looking at sack numbers. He wasn’t really worse as a pass rusher at all with 4 hits and 43 hurries on 523 pass rush snaps, to go with those 7 sacks, a 10.3% pass rush rate. In 2011, he had those 16 sacks, but just 14 hits and 26 hurries on 580 pass rush snap, a pass rush rate of 9.7%. In terms of pass rush efficiency (sacks + .75 hits + .75 hurries per 100 snaps), he was at 8.4 in 2012, better than the 8.2 he was at in 2011. He was also a better run stopper in 2012 than 2011. He was good in 2011, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 5^th ranked 4-3 defensive end against the run, but he led the position in that aspect in 2012.

Overall, he was ProFootballFocus’ 6^th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2011 and 4^th ranked in 2012. If he misses more than a couple of games, they’ll really miss him and it will really hurt if he doesn’t come back at 100%. They have a lot of defensive end depth because that’s GM Jerry Reese’s thing, but JPP’s potential absence will compromise their ability to run their signature 3 and 4 defensive end sets, where JPP and/or Justin Tuck line up inside at defensive tackle.

After Jason Pierre-Paul, they have Tuck, Mathias Kiwanuka, and Damontre Moore. Tuck has had back-to-back down regular seasons after grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 10^th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2010 and he didn’t carry his strong 2011 post-season into last season. He’s really been around a league average player over the past 2 seasons, last season grading out slightly above average against the run, but slightly below average rushing the passer, with 4 sacks, 8 hits, and 20 hurries on 390 pass rush snaps, 8.2%, and only playing 662 snaps overall. Injuries have sapped his abilities and going into his age 30 contract year, I don’t see him getting much better. This might be his last season with the team.

Osi Umenyiora is gone, but he was really a league average player as well of late. Mathias Kiwanuka, a tweener linebacker/defensive end, will move back to the defensive line this year full time, playing there on all downs, rather than just passing downs. His passing down role won’t change and he had 3 sacks, 5 hits, and 14 hurries on 246 pass rush snaps, a mediocre 8.9% rate. On running downs, he could really struggle on the line. Despite his size at 265, he was a below average run stopping linebacker last season and moving to the line won’t help that. For what it’s worth, he was great as a run stopping linebacker in 2011, but his best role will be as a situational rusher and nothing more.

Moore is a 3^rd round pick rookie. At one time, he was seen by the draftnik community as a top-5 pick as 20-year-old coming off an incredibly productive season at Texas A&M, but off the field concerns, character concerns, and athleticism concerns sunk his stock all the way to the 3^rd round. He’ll be a pure sub package rusher as a rookie, but he could have to see significant snaps early in the season if JPP misses any games.

Because of how often their defensive ends move inside to defensive tackle, the Giants’ defensive tackles don’t play as many snaps as most teams’ defensive tackles. That being said, they still have a good one in Linval Joseph, a 2010 2^nd round pick. Joseph has graded out above average in the last 2 seasons as a starter, ranking 21^st among defensive tackles in 2012. Opposite him, they had issues last season. Chris Canty was limited to just 9 games with injuries and the 33-year-old Rocky Bernard played above average on 396 snaps, 2^nd most among Giant defensive tackles.

Canty and Bernard are gone and have been replaced with two former Eagle veterans. The first is Cullen Jenkins, who is going into his age 32 season. He gets washed against the run, but had 4 sacks, 1 hit, and 25 hurries on 388 pass rush snaps, a 7.7% pass rush rate. He’ll be best in a rotational role and he’s not getting any younger, but he’ll be an asset for them. The other one is Mike Patterson, who was limited to 136 snaps last season because of brain surgery. He was ProFootballFocus’ 20^th ranked defensive tackle in 2011, but going into his age 30 season, his best days should be behind him. He’ll be a rotational player as well.

The Giants also have a pair of recent 2^nd round picks in the mix, giving them 3 recent 2^nd round picks at defensive tackle (including Joseph). Johnathan Hankins is a 2^nd round pick rookie who will play a situational role stopping the run at 319 pounds as a rookie. Marvin Austin is the other one, but for a variety of different reasons, he’s played just 109 snaps in the last 3 seasons, dating back to his final season at North Carolina, when he was suspended for the whole season. He might be on the roster bubble.

The Giants were once known as one of the best pass rush teams in the NFL, but last year they were just ProFootballFocus’ 14^th ranked pass rush team and they could be even worse this season if Jason Pierre-Paul misses significant time with injury. He’s really the only above average player on this line (with the exception of maybe Linval Joseph), though he is a true blue chip stud when healthy and they have a lot of decent rotational players.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

With Mathias Kiwanuka moving to the defensive line and Chase Blackburn and Michael Boley both gone, the Giants are returning none of their three starting linebackers from 2012. That’s not such a bad thing. They didn’t play that well (there’s a reason Boley is still a free agent and Blackburn is a reserve/special teamer in Carolina). Kiwanuka and Boley ranked 38^th and 41^st out of 43 eligible 4-3 outside linebackers last season and Blackburn ranked 43^rd out of 53 eligible middle linebackers. However, none of the 6 candidates for the 3 open spots are that good either.

Keith Rivers is the most experienced of the group. A 2008 1^st round pick, he was once a solid linebacker in Cincinnati, but injuries derailed his career (he missed 29 games from 2008-2011) and the Bengals sent him to the Giants for a late round pick last off-season. He graded out negatively on 238 snaps last season as a reserve with the Giants last season. Aaron Curry is another former 1^st round pick linebacker. He struggled mightily with the Seahawks for 2 ½ years before being sent to the Raiders for a late round pick. After a mediocre half season there in 2011, he played just 18 snaps with them last season thanks to injuries.

At middle linebacker, Dan Connor was a reserve in Carolina for 4 seasons and did well in limited action when injuries struck. He was signed by the Cowboys to a multiyear deal to be a starter last off-season, but lost to Bruce Carter in the battle for the job in the pre-season and barely played before being cut this off-season and snatched up by the Giants. He’ll battle Mark Herzlich for the starting job. Herzlich had his collegiate career derailed by cancer, which is the only reason why he went undrafted in 2011, but he’s cancer free and he’s done well to stay on the Giants roster over the past 2 seasons, though he did grade out negatively on 176 snaps last season.

The other two linebackers are Jacquian Williams and Spencer Paysinger, both from the 2011 draft class, Williams as a 6^th rounder and Paysinger as an undrafted free agent. Paysinger has played nondescript 187 snaps as a reserve in 2 seasons and, while Williams made a few starts as a rookie, he’s graded out negatively on 814 career snaps. These 6 will do battle for 3 spots and I’d be surprised if more than one took a starting job and did even an average job. It’s a group without a lot of talent.

Grade: C

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Secondary

Things aren’t much better in the secondary as they had ProFootballFocus’ 110^th and 111^th ranked cornerbacks out of 113 eligible last season. Corey Webster was #110, allowing 59 catches on 96 attempts for 988 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 7 passes and committing 6 penalties. Jayron Hosley was #111, allowing 33 catches on 47 attempts for 467 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 2 passes and committing 4 penalties.

Webster has been better in the past and could be better this season, but he’s also going into his age 31 season so his best days are probably behind him. Hosley was a 3^rd round rookie and could be better in his 2^nd season in the league, but he might not be. After all, he was just a 3^rd rounder and 3^rd round picks turn into starters just about 30% of the time, so I don’t have huge expectations for them.

With Webster slipping, Prince Amukamara has been the de facto #1 cornerback. In his first full season as a starter after missing most of his rookie year with injuries, Amukamara played pretty well in 12 games (he missed 4 with more injuries), grading out about league average, allowing 33 catches on 63 attempts for 375 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 4 passes and committing 4 penalties. Going into his 3^rd year in the league, the 2011 1^st round pick could have his best year in 2013, but he needs to stay healthy first. Webster and Amukamara will start with Hosley once again serving as the 3^rd cornerback, focusing on the slot.

Hosley could see more playing time than the 465 snaps he played last season because he’ll probably be the sole nickel back. Last season, when Kenny Phillips was healthy, Antrel Rolle would play there on passing downs, allowing the Giants to get 3 safeties on the field. Rolle played better in that role down around the line of scrimmage rather than back as a safety, but with Phillips now in Philadelphia, he’ll probably focus on being more of a true safety this year. After ranking in the bottom 10 among eligible safeties in 2010 and 2011, Rolle “improved” in 2012 and ranked 63^rd out of 88 eligible. He’s an overrated and overpaid player who especially struggles in coverage. Going into his age 31 season, things won’t get better and they’ll probably get worse considering his past.

Stevie Brown served as the 3^rd safety with Rolle and Phillips (who played incredibly well whenever he was healthy) last year and when Phillips got hurt, Brown stepped up big time as a starter in his absence. He’ll be a full time starter this year. He probably won’t repeat the 8 interceptions he had last season (remember how inconsistent turnovers are) and it’s important not to grade players purely on what they do on 8 snaps, but Brown graded out above average on 846 snaps last year, excelling in coverage, struggling a bit against the run and not committing a penalty in his first season of real action. We’ll have to see if he can keep it up. Will Hill is also in the mix and could serve as the 3^rd safety, moving Rolle to the slot on passing downs, if they feel the need to do that. Hill has a checkered past, but graded out positively on 218 snaps as an undrafted rookie last season.

Overall though, it’s a very poor back 7. They ranked 31^st in the NFL allowing 8.1 yards per attempt this season and I don’t know why they’d be much improved over that this season. They also won’t force as many turnovers as they did last season, which they were really reliant on to get stops last season. This figures to be a worse defensive team than they were last season and that’s what will stop them from having a big win improvement.

Grade: C+

Head Coach

Tom Coughlin is one of the longest tenured Head Coaches in the NFL and the Giants have largely taken on his identity. While he’s often been written off by the media as someone who will be fired after the season after yet another late season swoon, he always comes back and the Giants have always had solid seasons under his leadership, including the two Super Bowls which have probably earned him job security for life. It’s tough to lead non-elite regular season teams all the way to a Super Bowl victory, getting the team to believe in the seemingly impossible, but Coughlin has done so twice. This season should be no different for him. They’ll be a solid team that competes for a playoff spot and they may have a stronger 1^st than 2^nd half. If they get in the playoffs, they’ll once again be scary.

Overall

I’ll predict the Giants season in two halves since they pretty much always fade in the 2^nd half of the season. They have 3 divisional games in the first half of the season, both games against Philadelphia and a game in Dallas. They should win both Philadelphia games, but a trip to Dallas will be tougher, though they’re actually a better road team than home team. They should go 2-1 or 3-0 in those 3 games. Outside the division, they host Denver and Minnesota, two games they should split. They also have trips to Carolina, Kansas City, and Chicago. Those are 3 good teams, but they’re a good road team so I’ll give them 2 wins in those if I have them at 2-1 (or 1 win if I have them at 3-0) in the 3 divisional games and 1-1 in the other 2 games, putting them at 5-3 going into a conveniently placed week 9 bye.

After the bye, they have a home game against Dallas and both games against Washington in the division, and I think they’ll go 1-2 in those 3 games, putting them at 3-3 or 4-2 in the division. They host Green Bay, Oakland, and Seattle. Oakland should be a win and they should split the Green Bay/Seattle games. Seattle isn’t a good road team and that’s an early start. That puts them at 8-6 with games in San Diego and Detroit. I think they could win both of those games, which puts them at 9 or 10 wins, which sounds about right. I have them just below Dallas in the division and losing out in a tough Wild Card battle in the NFC.

Projection: 9-7 2^nd in the NFC East

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Dallas Cowboys 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

July 17, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Cowboys, Uncategorized

QB Tony Romo (Dallas)

In his career, Romo has completed 64.7% of his passes for an average of 7.9 YPA and 177 touchdowns to 91 interceptions, good for a career QB rating of 95.6, 5^th highest all-time behind Aaron Rodgers, Steve Young, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning. The 19 interceptions he threw last season, which led the league, tied a career high and was the same amount he threw in his last two full seasons combined. The Cowboys might not throw 658 times in 2012, which was 3^rd most in the NFL and 90 more attempts than any Cowboy team in the Tony Romo era. However, this is more and more becoming a passing league and while they’d probably prefer not to have to pass that many times in 2013, they’ll still be a pass heavy team that should throw the ball at least 600 times.

Projection: 4450 passing yards for 29 touchdowns 15 interceptions 50 rushing yards 1 touchdown (275 pts standard, 333 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB DeMarco Murray (Dallas)

DeMarco Murray might be a little overrated off of the 25 carry/253 yard performance against St. Louis in his first NFL start as a 3^rd round rookie in 2011. That was a completely hapless Rams defense at the time and if you take out that game, he’s averaged just 4.4 yards per carry in his career. Last season, he averaged 4.1 yards per carry and since his first 4 starts, he’s managed just 866 yards on 225 carries, a 3.8 YPC clip. He’s not as proven as people think. He’s also been hampered by numerous injuries, missing the end of his rookie season in 2011 and being limited to 161 carries in 2012. Injuries can not only keep a running back off the field, but also sap his explosiveness and Murray has injury issues dating back to his collegiate days at Oklahoma. There’s a reason he fell to the 3^rd round.

Projection: 200 carries for 840 rushing yards and 7 total touchdowns 37 catches for 290 yards (155 pts, 192 pts PPR)

WR Dez Bryant (Dallas)

Bryant has always had all the talent in the world and, as is often the case with wide receivers, he finally put everything together in his 3^rd year in the league in 2012, catching 92 passes for 1382 yards and 12 touchdowns and playing in all 16 games for the first time. He also closed 2012 incredibly well, catching 50 passes for 879 yards and 10 touchdowns in his final 8 games. This off-season has actually been his first without any sort of off the field distraction so he could be even better in 2013. He finally seems to have turned a corner.

Projection: 94 catches for 1440 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns (216 pts, 310 pts PPR)

WR Miles Austin (Dallas)

Miles Austin caught 66 passes for 943 yards and 6 touchdowns last season, rebounding from an injury plagued 2011 season. He might never produce the kind of numbers he had in 2009 and 2010, when he averaged 75 catches for 1181 yards and 9 touchdowns per season, because of Dez Bryant’s emergence and Jason Witten’s presence, and his final 8 game production from 2012 is concerning (25 catches for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns), but he’s only 29 and you can do a lot worse.

Projection: 55 catches for 840 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns (120 pts, 175 pts PPR)

TE Jason Witten (Dallas)

Witten is one of the most dependable players in the NFL regardless of position. He hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year in 2003, signing a waiver to play through a ruptured spleen week 1 of last season and his worst season since his rookie year was 2006, when he still caught 64 passes for 754 yards and 1 touchdowns. Since 2004, his 2^nd season in the league, he’s averaged 86 catches for 956 yards and 5 touchdowns per season and only going into his age 31 season coming off a career high in catches, I see no reason why that wouldn’t continue.

Projection: 88 catches for 980 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns (128 pts, 216 pts PPR)

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Dallas Cowboys 2013 NFL Season Preview

July 17, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Introduction

When the Cowboys signed Tony Romo to a 6-year, 108 million dollar contract extension with 55 million dollars guaranteed this off-season, it got a lot of criticism, as could be expected. After all, Romo is the media’s favorite whipping boy, for whatever reasons. And, yes, when you compare it to the contracts of other top flight quarterbacks, it looks like an overpay.

However, I say about that extension the same thing I said when the Ravens paid Joe Flacco: if the Cowboys hadn’t kept him, teams would have been lining up to “overpay” him. There’s absolutely no doubt in my mind Romo could have gotten that kind of money on the open market. Just ask fans of the Bills or the Cardinals or the Jaguars or the Browns how much they wish it could be their team paying Romo that kind of money to play quarterback for them. Because, at the end of the day, there are two types of teams in the NFL, teams with quarterbacks you can win with and teams without and, because of Romo, the Cowboys are the former.

In his career, Romo has completed 64.7% of his passes for an average of 7.9 YPA and 177 touchdowns to 91 interceptions, good for a career QB rating of 95.6, 5^th highest all-time behind Aaron Rodgers, Steve Young, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning. He has a career record of 55-38 and while he has a reputation for not being clutch, he has led 18 4^th quarter comebacks in those 55 wins and he has a career record of 19-19 in games decided by a touchdown or less. He also has the highest 4^th quarter QB rating of any active quarterback. He may only be 1-3 in the post-season in his career, but, like with Matt Ryan, it’s not fair to judge a quarterback’s entire career on 4 games. I don’t understand why he takes the type of criticism he does.

Romo has a reputation for being someone who throws a lot of interceptions, but his career interception rate of 2.8% is barely higher than Peyton Manning’s 2.7% career interception rate (Drew Brees is also at 2.7%). In fact, the 19 interceptions he threw last season, which led the league, tied a career high and was the same amount he threw in his last two full seasons combined. Eli Manning led the league with 25 interceptions in 2010 and his 2011 turned out to be pretty good. Romo’s interception total should regress to the mean in 2013.

Turnovers were an issue overall for the Cowboys in 2012 as they had a turnover differential of -13 and managed just 16 takeaways. That tends to be inconsistent on a year-to-year basis, however. For example, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers on average turn the ball over 25.5 times the following season, while teams that turn the ball over 35 or more times turn the ball over 28.1 times the following season. Teams with 20 or fewer takeaways take the ball away an average of 25.3 times the following season, while teams with 35 or more takeaways take the ball away an average of 27.3 times the following season. Teams with a turnover differential of +15 or higher have a turnover differential of +3.6 the following season, while teams with a turnover differential of -15 have a turnover differential of +1.5 the following season.

They should be better in that aspect this season and for that reason a better team. They actually have a good deal of talent on both sides of the ball so as long as they don’t get in their own way turnover wise or continue struggling to produce takeaways defensively, they should be an improved team in 2013. Of all the divisions in the NFC, theirs is the weakest and the most up for grabs. They should contend for the division title and the trip back to the post-season that would come with it.

Quarterback

I talked extensively about Romo in the opening and I’m not going to repeat myself. Just know that you can win a Super Bowl with Romo as your quarterback and that the media criticism of him is incredibly unfounded. The Cowboys haven’t had the supporting cast to complement him in a while, but I think this might be their most talented team in years.

Grade: B+

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

What really helps Romo is the development of #1 wide receiver Dez Bryant. Bryant has always had all the talent in the world and, as is often the case with wide receivers, he finally put everything together in his 3^rd year in the league in 2012, catching 92 passes for 1382 yards and 12 touchdowns and playing in all 16 games for the first time. Among eligible wide receivers, only Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker had higher quarterback ratings when thrown to than Bryant, as Romo completed 67.2% of his passes for an average of 10.1 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions when throwing to Bryant, a QB rating of 123.2.

He closed 2012 incredibly well, catching 50 passes for 879 yards and 10 touchdowns in his final 8 games and while you never like to see a receiver drop 11 passes in a season, 7 of those came in the first 7 games of the season. This off-season has actually been his first without any sort of off the field distraction so he could be even better in 2013. He finally seems to have turned a corner.

Romo also has one of the best tight ends in the NFL as Jason Witten led all tight ends with 110 catches for 1039 yards last year, to go with 3 touchdowns. Witten and Bryant were one of just five receiver duos in the NFL to each have 1000 yards receiving and the only one to feature a tight end. Witten is one of the most dependable players in the NFL regardless of position. He hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year in 2003, signing a waiver to play through a ruptured spleen week 1 of last season and his worst season since his rookie year was 2006, when he still caught 64 passes for 754 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Since 2004, his 2^nd season in the league, he’s averaged 86 catches for 956 yards and 5 touchdowns per season and only going into his age 31 season coming off a career high in catches, I see no reason why that wouldn’t continue. He’s also a phenomenal run blocker who has graded out significantly above average in that aspect on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 5 seasons. There’s a reason he was their #3 ranked tight end last season.

Miles Austin almost made it 3 receivers with over 1000 yards last season as he caught 66 passes for 943 yards and 6 touchdowns, rebounding from an injury plagued 2011 season. He might never produce the kind of numbers he had in 2009 and 2010 again, when he averaged 75 catches for 1181 yards and 9 touchdowns per season, because of Dez Bryant’s emergence and Jason Witten’s presence, and his final 8 game production from 2012 is concerning (25 catches for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns), but he’s only 29 and as your 3^rd option, you can do a lot, lot worse.

The Cowboys have a great top receiving trio. All of their receiving numbers might be a little inflated because the Cowboys passed the ball 658 times in 2012, which was 3^rd most in the NFL and 90 more attempts than any Cowboy team in the Tony Romo era. However, this is more and more becoming a passing league and while they’d probably prefer not to have to pass that many times in 2013, they’ll still be a pass heavy team that should throw the ball at least 600 times and you can’t deny their receiving talent.

The Cowboys also spent 2^nd and 3^rd round picks adding to this receiving corps, which was a need considering the only other player after their top 3 who had more than 262 receiving yards was Kevin Ogletree, who is now in Tampa Bay. 3^rd round pick Terrance Williams will compete with 3^rd year pro Dwayne Harris, a 2011 6^th round pick who caught all 17 of his career receptions in the 2012 season, for the #3 wide receiver job. Williams appears to have the upper hand in that battle and should be able to win it. Williams is a straight line speedster who was incredibly productive at Baylor, but needs to work on his route running. Whoever wins that job will line up outside and push Austin to the slot in 3-wide receiver sets, which they ran on 51% of offensive snaps in 2012.

That number could be lower in 2013 though. In 2011, they used two-tight end sets much more frequently than in 2012 and the reason for that was the loss of Martellus Bennett, following the 2011 season. Bennett was a 2^nd round pick of the Cowboys’ in 2008 and while he was trapped behind Witten on the depth chart, he was secretly one of the best #2 tight ends in the NFL and saw the field frequently. There’s a reason he turned into one of the better all-around tight ends in the NFL once he got a starting job in New York in 2012. However, with John Phillips as the #2 tight end in 2012, they just weren’t able to do the same sort of things. Phillips played just 342 snaps, fewer than Bennett had in any season and he too is also gone as a free agent this off-season.

Seeing the opportunity to upgrade that spot, they used a 2^nd round pick on Gavin Escobar, from San Diego State, and he should see the field plenty as a rookie. He’s not the same type of inline blocker than Bennett was, but he’s a more fluid athlete and pass catcher. He’ll be used more as a move tight end with Witten able to block inline and he’ll allow the Cowboys to get back to the two-tight end sets they love. Williams and Escobar add to this receiving corps’ depth and allow them more versatility and it really is overall one of the best receiving corps in the NFL.

Grade: A

Running Backs

One of the reasons why the Cowboys passed so much in 2012 was because they couldn’t get anything going on the ground. They averaged just 3.6 yards per carry, tied for 2^nd worst in the NFL, rushed for just 1265 yards, 2^nd worst in the NFL, and ran the ball just 355 times, also 2^nd worst in the NFL. DeMarco Murray might be a little overrated off of his 25 carry/253 yard performance against St. Louis in his first NFL start as a 3^rd round rookie in 2011. That was a completely hapless Rams defense at the time and if you take out that game, he’s averaged just 4.4 yards per carry in his career. Last season, he averaged 4.1 yards per carry and since his first 4 starts, he’s managed just 866 yards on 225 carries, a 3.8 YPC clip. He’s not as proven as people think.

He’s also been hampered by numerous injuries, missing the end of his rookie season in 2011 and being limited to 161 carries in 2012. Injuries can not only keep a running back off the field, but also sap his explosiveness and Murray has injury issues dating back to his collegiate days at Oklahoma. There’s a reason he fell to the 3^rd round. In Murray’s absence last year, the Cowboys rushed Felix Jones, Lance Dunbar, and Phillip Tanner, who combined to rush for 538 yards on 157 carries, a pathetic 3.4 YPC.

Seeing the need for an insurance policy behind Murray, the Cowboys used a 5^th round pick on Joseph Randle out of Oklahoma State, who will see carries should Murray get hurt or struggle. He has a good chance to see action, but I don’t know how effective he’ll be. He was just a 5^th round rookie and he’s a one speed back who did most of his work in open space in college and his measurables, 4.63 40 at 6-0 204, don’t impress.

Grade: C+

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Offensive Line

Part of the reason why they’ve struggled on the ground of late has been their poor offensive line play, though they are a better run blocking offensive line than pass blocking, ranking 26^th on ProFootballFocus in terms of pass protection and 23^rd in pass blocking efficiency last season. Seeing the problem, they spent a first round pick on an offensive lineman.

The problem is they reached for Wisconsin’s Travis Frederick, a self-proclaimed “2^nd or 3^rd round offensive lineman.” While I don’t have much doubt Frederick will be a solid starter in the NFL, the time for drafting solid starting interior offensive linemen isn’t the 1^st round. That being said, he will be an upgrade for them on the offensive line, though it’s unknown where he’ll play. He has the versatility to play both guard and center and they need help at both spots.

Right guard is the position where they need the most help. They signed career backup Mackenzy Bernadeau to be their starter at right guard last season for some reason and it went exactly as you’d expect. Bernadeau graded out well below average at right guard and was even worse in 2 starts at center. At center, Ryan Cook actually did a solid job in 13 games, but it’s going to be hard to count on the career backup long term. Cook was only out there because Phil Costa was hurt.

Costa, who will start at center if Frederick plays guard, graded out above average last year on 126 snaps before getting hurt, but he was ProFootballFocus’ 30^th ranked center out of 35 eligible in 2011. Frederick will be able to plug one of these holes, but not both and I don’t think he’ll be a big time impact player. At left guard, Nate Livings actually played pretty well, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 16^th ranked guard in 2012, but in 2011 he was 52^nd out of 78 eligible and 2012 was the first season he graded out above average, so I don’t know how reliable he can be.

Things aren’t much better at right tackle. After a strong 2010 season, the Cowboys rewarded left tackle Doug Free with a 4 year, 32 million dollar contract with 17 million guaranteed, even though he was only a one year starter. He proved to be a one year wonder. He struggled at left tackle in 2011 and was moved to right tackle this year, in hopes of turning things around.

He didn’t turn things around. In fact, he was worse. He was one of the worst tackles in the league, allowing 6 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 42 quarterback hurries, while committing a league leading 15 penalties. He split time with Jeremy Parnell down the stretch, who didn’t impress either. Free ranked 66th out of 80 eligible tackles on ProFootballFocus. He restructured his contract this off-season to stay with the team and will compete with Parnell, who graded out below average on 267 snaps in his first serious playing time since going undrafted in 2009. They’ve been linked to free agent right tackle Eric Winston, who would be a tremendous upgrade, but they won’t meet his asking price. If it comes down, which it could if he’s remains unsigned in 2 weeks’ time, he could be a Cowboy.

Their best offensive lineman is left tackle Tyron Smith. Smith was their right tackle in 2011 and played so well, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked offensive tackle, that he got to move to the blindside for 2012. He didn’t play as well, committing 11 penalties and struggling some in pass protection, but he run blocked incredibly well, 8^th among offensive tackles in terms of run blocking, and overall graded out above average. The 9^th overall pick in 2011, he is only 22 (23 in December) so he still has plenty of upside and could emerge as an above average blindside protector this season. Their offensive line has plenty of issues still though.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

The Cowboys actually have a lot of defensive talent, but didn’t really play like it last season, allowing 25.0 points per game, 24th in the NFL. Part of this had to do with their inability to force turnovers, which should be better in 2013, as I mentioned earlier. However, a lot of the blame could fall on Rob Ryan, their Defensive Coordinator at the time. He has since been fired and replaced with Monte Kiffin.

Kiffin is an odd fit in Dallas because of cornerbacks Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne. They spent big resources on Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne last off-season, but both fit a man press scheme better than Kiffin’s signature Cover 2. Kiffin says he won’t force the scheme on the cornerbacks, but why hire Kiffin if you aren’t going to run the Tampa 2? Kiffin is a good coordinator, but this is a weird fit and it looks like Jerry Jones only did it for the attention and his big name.

That being said, Kiffin will move their front 7 to a 4-3 alignment, which fits their personnel much better. DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer will move from rush linebacker to defensive end. They were among the best pass rushing duos in the NFL last season. Spencer, who was franchised for the 2^nd straight off-season this off-season, actually graded out as ProFootballFocus’ top ranked rush linebacker last season. While last season was the first season he had big time sack numbers, he’s always gotten consistent pressure and been one of the best run stopping rush linebackers in the NFL. He’s been in the top-13 at the position in each of the last 5 seasons, grading out above average in all 5 seasons. Last season, Spencer had 11 sacks, 2 hits, and 27 hurries on 318 pass rush snaps, a 12.6% pass rush rate.

Ware, meanwhile, has the bigger name, but was the inferior overall player last year. He rushed the passer really well, grading out 3^rd at his position only behind Clay Matthews and Aldon Smith, producing 14 sacks, 13 hits, and 32 hurries on 454 pass rush snaps, a 13.0% pass rush rate. However, his struggles against the run, in coverage, and his position leading 9 penalties can’t be ignored.

He’s only going into his age 31 season and from 2008-2011 he was in the top-4 at his position on ProFootballFocus. Both are among the best edge rushers in the league and while neither has ever played in a 4-3, I don’t have too many concerns about how they’ll adjust, especially considering nickel and dime packages in a 3-4 and a 4-3 aren’t that different. They are, however, the lightest defensive end duo in the NFL, so they could have some issues against the run. Tyrone Crawford, a 2012 3^rd round pick, will be the 3^rd defensive end. He graded out positively on 303 snaps as a rookie and at 274 pounds, he’ll help against the run in certain situations. He can also line up inside on passing downs.

Inside at defensive tackle, Jay Ratliff and Jason Hatcher will start. Ratliff will be a better fit in a 4-3 than he was in a 3-4 because he’s at his best when he’s penetrating and getting up the field, rather than playing nose tackle. The issue is he’s going into his age 32 season and coming off a season where he played just 269 snaps due to injury. After restructuring his contract this off-season, he’s unlikely to be back in 2014 and beyond, but from 2008-2011 he was a top-11 defensive tackle on ProFootballFocus in all 4 seasons despite playing slightly out of position, so there’s some hope for a strong year from him in his new position.

Hatcher, meanwhile, might not be as good of a fit for the scheme. At 6-6 285, he’s undersized for a defensive tackle, but not quick enough to play defensive end. In a 3-4, this “tweener” was a perfect fit as a 5-technique because of his combination of size, speed, and length, but it’s unclear how he’ll fit in a 4-3. For what it’s worth, he was incredible last season, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 4^th ranked 3-4 defensive end, but that was really the first season he had ever done anything like that, though he had always been good in limited action. They’ll have to hope he can be even close to that good in their new scheme.

Sean Lissemore will serve as the 3^rd defensive tackle. Like Tyrone Crawford, his role will be more as a run stopper than anything. All across their starting defensive line, they have great pass rushers who are undersized and going to struggle stopping the run, but that’s how Monte Kiffin’s defensive lines usually are. They’re built on size and pass rush, as opposed to size and physicality. They were ProFootballFocus’ 8^th ranked pass rushing team last season and have a chance to be even better than that this season.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Despite their small defensive line, they might not struggle to stop the run. That’s because they have two excellent linebackers. Sean Lee and Bruce Carter are also a little smaller than the average linebacker, but they’re so fast and sticky that they are very hard to engage in the running game and they’re both excellent fits for Monte Kiffin’s new scheme. Injuries are the only issue here.

Lee has a history of injury issues dating back to his collegiate dates at Penn State, part of the reason why he fell to the 2^nd round in 2010. As a reserve as a rookie, he played incredibly well on 169 snaps. In 2011, in his first full season as a starter, he was ProFootballFocus’ 14^th ranked middle linebacker. In 2012, he was off to an incredible start before getting hurt and missing 10 games with a toe injury, but he was still ProFootballFocus’ 6^th ranked middle linebacker despite playing just 336 snaps. He absolutely has the potential to be one of the top-3 middle linebackers in the league, especially in this new scheme, should he stay healthy. At his best, maybe only Patrick Willis is better than him.

Bruce Carter will play outside as an every down linebacker alongside Lee. When the Cowboys selected Bruce Carter in the 2nd round of the 2011 NFL Draft, they were taking a real chance. Carter had first round ability, with legitimate 4.4-4.5 speed at 6-1 241 and great weight room strength, throwing up 25 reps of 225 at The Combine, but was widely expected to go on day 2 because he had torn his ACL in the prior November. Not only would he likely not contribute as a rookie, he was a real question mark going forward. He couldn’t run the 40 at The Combine and it was a question whether he’d ever be able to regain that same explosiveness.

The Cowboys didn’t wait long into the 2nd day to take him, taking him 40th overall with the 8th pick of the 2^nd round, doing so despite having 3 established middle linebackers ahead of him, Keith Brooking, Bradie James, and Lee and also despite running a 3-4 scheme that Carter didn’t seem to be a natural fit for. He’d be playing 3-4 middle linebacker, a position more focused on size and strength, coming up to plug the run, rather than speed, instincts, and athleticism, making plays in space. His sideline to sideline speed would not be best utilized in that scheme.

Carter predictably barely played as a rookie, but in his 2nd year in the league in 2012, with Brooking and James gone, Carter beat out free agent signee Dan Connor, widely perceived as the favorite for the job after landing a multiyear deal in free agency. Carter eventually became an every down linebacker at middle linebacker after injuries knocked out Sean Lee for the season, but once again, injuries found Carter when he dislocated his elbow on Thanksgiving and had to be put on IR. Still, despite only playing 625 snaps and despite playing out of position, Carter graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 15th ranked inside linebacker out of 62 eligible, with only 3 players ranked higher than him that played fewer snaps than him.

Now going into his 3rd year in the league, Carter is healthy again, but more importantly the scheme has changed. Carter will be moving outside to weakside linebacker, where he will play every down in the role that Derrick Brooks thrived in with the Buccaneers for so many years under Kiffin. Carter’s skill set fits that role perfectly as his natural athleticism, instincts, and range will be allowed to shine. Provided he stays healthy, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Carter emerged as one of the best outside linebackers in the NFL this season.

The 3^rd linebacker will be Justin Durant. He’ll primarily be a run stopper and come off the field in passing downs for an extra defensive back. He’ll be a perfect fit for this role. He’s not a well-rounded player at all, but in the last three years, he’s graded out as ProFootballFocus 1^st (2010), 7^th (2011), and 8^th (2012) ranked 4-3 outside linebacker on ProFootballFocus. Barring injury, this is one of the best linebacking corps in the NFL. I like this front 7 a lot as a whole.

Grade: A

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Cornerbacks

Brandon Carr is their #1 cornerback. He’s an overrated player who wasn’t worth what they paid him last off-season. He played pretty well in Kansas City when he had Brandon Flowers to cover #1 receivers opposite him, but he had his worst season since his rookie year last season as Dallas’ #1 cornerback. Still, he graded out as a league average player, allowing 51 catches on 87 attempts for 644 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 8 passes and committing 3 penalties.

What would really help Carr is if Morris Claiborne could develop into a #1 cornerback. The 2012 6^th overall pick certainly has the upside, but he struggled as a rookie, grading out below average and allowing 48 catches on 69 attempts for 571 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 7 passes and committing 8 penalties. He should be better in his 2^nd season in the league, but he might be a year away from developing into a top flight cornerback, if he’s ever going to.

Orlando Scandrick will be the slot cornerback and with Mike Jenkins gone, he should see more than the 339 snaps he played last season. He graded out about league average, allowing 20 catches on 39 attempts for 222 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and committing 3 penalties. He never developed into the player they expected him to be when they prematurely gave him a “forward thinking” 5 year, 25 million dollar contract with 10 million guaranteed two off-seasons ago. Owed 3.5 million in 2014, this could be his last season with the team, so the Cowboys drafted BW Webb in the 4^th round. Webb will be their 4^th cornerback this season.

The Cowboys may use 4 cornerbacks more than most teams, like they did last year with Jenkins, because of their lack of talent at the safety position. It could be even worse this season. They’ve essentially got 5 guys competing for two spots and none of them are very impressive. Barry Church started last year as a starter before tearing his Achilles. He’s only played in 399 snaps in his career since going undrafted in 2010 and hasn’t played very well, but he should win one of the starting jobs because of his salary. In yet another “forward thinking” extension by Jerry Jones, the Cowboys extended him for 4 years, 12.4 million last year after he tore his Achilles, even though he had another year left on his contract.

Will Allen, a career backup and special teamer going into his age 31 season, is another option. He graded out about average on 432 snaps with the Steelers last season. Danny McCray, who played in Church’s absence last season, graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 77^th ranked safety out of 88 eligible despite playing just 658 snaps. Matt Johnson is an inexperienced 2012 4^th round pick who didn’t play a snap last season. JJ Wilcox, meanwhile, is a 3^rd round pick rookie who is incredibly raw. There’s not a lot to like here at safety and it’s really the weakness of their defense. However, they still have a lot of defensive talent and barring major injury or major issues adjusting to the new scheme by some of their premier players, they should be an improved defensive group next season and they should force more takeaways as well.

Grade: B-

Head Coach

Jason Garrett gets a lot of criticism, but unlike Tony Romo, he does deserve a lot of it. His Cowboy teams have largely underachieved over the years, doing so last year while committing 118 penalties, 3^rd most in the NFL. His name has been thrown around as a coach who could potentially get fired and if they don’t make it back to the playoffs this season, this could be it for him. He’s already had play calling duties taken away from him.

Grade: C+

Overall

As I said in the opening, the NFC East is really wide open. Washington won the division with 10 wins last year and they could easily not match that because of Robert Griffin’s health questions and because of the ridiculous fumble luck they had last season. The Giants are obviously a candidate to bounce back, but they still have major questions in their defensive back 7. Philadelphia, meanwhile, remains a mystery. The Cowboys could easily go 4-2 or better in divisional play.

Outside of the division, they host St. Louis, Denver, Minnesota, Oakland, and Green Bay. Denver and Green Bay will be tough games, but they could win one of those games and they should win the other 3. On the road, they go to Kansas City, San Diego, Detroit, New Orleans, and Chicago. New Orleans should be a very tough one and Detroit and Chicago won’t be easy, but Kansas City and San Diego will be easier and they should win 2 or 3 of those games. They should be able to win the 10 or 11 games it will take to win this division.

Projection: 11-5 1st in NFC East

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Year: 2013

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