Pittsburgh Steelers 2013 NFL Season Preview

July 15, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Steelers, Uncategorized

Introduction

The Steelers missed the playoffs in 2012 for just the 3^rd time in the Ben Roethlisberger era. Those 3 seasons have coincided with the only 3 seasons in that type span that the defense hasn’t ranked in the top-3 in points allowed. That being said, last season was hardly the defense’s fault. While they didn’t make it a ridiculous 7^th top-3 scoring defense finish in 9 years, they still finished 6^th allowing 19.6 points per game. In addition to that, they allowed the fewest yards in the NFL, allowing 4413, 239 less than 2^nd place Denver.

The offense was much more to blame, as they ranked 22^nd in the NFL, scoring just 21.0 points per game. The issues were twofold. The first was a very lackluster running game, which averaged just 3.7 yards per carry, 28^th in the NFL. The trio of Jonathan Dwyer, Isaac Redman, and Rashard Mendenhall really struggled. The second was an injury to Ben Roethlisberger, which cost him 3 and ½ games of real game action and limited him for the rest of the season upon his return. Prior to the Kansas City game where Roethlisberger got hurt, the Steelers were 5-3 and coming off a big win over the New York Giants, on a 3 game winning streak (which also included eventual playoff teams Cincinnati and Washington), and averaging 23.9 points per game.

In order to shore up their running game, they spent a 2^nd round pick on Le’Veon Bell. Bell is not an overly explosive back (his longest run of the last 2 seasons was 40 yards), but he’s incredibly consistent, capable of carrying a load, and a good pass catcher and pass protector. Bell averaged 4.7 yards per carry on 382 carries last year, catching 32 passes and scoring 13 times.

As for Ben Roethlisberger, he’s only played all 16 games once in his 9 year career. However, he’s usually been able to play well through injuries. His 2012 YPA of 7.3 was well behind his career average of 7.9 and the 2^nd lowest of his career. Going into that Kansas City game, he was completing 67.1% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. He was averaging slightly fewer yards per attempt than his career average, but in new Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley’s more conservative offense he was more accurate and better at protecting the football than usual. They also usually are able to survive without Roethlisberger, going 8-5 in the games he missed from 2004-2011, but they went just 1-2 in those games in 2012, thanks to terrible running game production and a ridiculous 8 turnover (5 fumble) loss to the Browns.

Overall, I like their chances of bouncing back this season. They probably won’t win 12 games like in 2010 or 2011, but their running game should be better and they should have better luck. Injuries probably won’t affect their season as much as they did last year and even if they “only” outgain their opponents by 909 yards again this season, they’ll probably be better than 8-8. This is still a very talented team that has gone 97-47 since drafting Ben Roethlisberger in 2004.

Quarterback

Ben Roethlisberger is one of just 7 active starting quarterbacks to have won the Super Bowl and while he’s always had a lot of help, he does belong in that top-7 or top-8 group of quarterbacks. He’s completed 63.1% of his passes for an average of 7.9 YPA, 191 touchdowns, and 108 interceptions in his career. His biggest issue is his inability to stay healthy. He’s not a particularly brittle player, but he takes a lot of hits because of his style of play. He’s also a very tough quarterback who usually plays through injuries and plays well for the most part. Last year’s broken rib was one of the exceptions.

The one concern here is his relationship with Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley. Haley and Roethlisberger would seem like a poor match because Roethlisberger’s game is not quick drop backs and short throws. While he did miss the playoffs in his first season with Haley, I don’t think you can necessarily blame Haley for that considering how well Roethlisberger was playing before getting hurt. There have been rumors of conflict, however, and I don’t think you can argue that they wouldn’t have been better off keeping Bruce Arians and not hiring Haley.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

2^nd round rookie Le’Veon Bell is expected to be the feature back for the Steelers, but Todd Haley has never been one for using just one running back. Even when he had Jamaal Charles setting a record at his disposal in 2010, he preferred to use both Charles and Thomas Jones. One of Isaac Redman or Jonathan Dwyer will steal carries away from Bell, but overall I expect their running game to be better than it was last year.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

One of the reasons for an expected improved running game is their offensive line. The 31^stranked offensive line in terms of run blocking last year, they were largely responsible for their inability to establish anything on the ground (they held up well in pass protection, however). Injuries and inexperience played a large part, but 4 of the 5 projected starters on the line have been 1^st or 2^nd round picks since 2010. They have plenty of talent.

The highest rated of the bunch coming out of school was right guard David DeCastro from Stanford. The 24^th pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, DeCastro was billed as one of the top interior offensive line prospects in recent memory. He slipped to the Steelers out of lack of need and positional value, but the Steelers had a spot for him and gladly snatched him up. However, an injury before the season limited him to 138 generally ineffective snaps late in the season. He’ll be more than a full year removed from the injury week 1 and he should be able to have a very strong 2^nd season in the league.

At center, the Steelers have another former highly rated prospect in Maurkice Pouncey, who went 18^th overall in 2010. Pouncey is an overrated player who is generally ranked among the best in the NFL at his position because of his name and the lack of mainstream statistics for evaluating interior offensive linemen. He’s been just an average to above average starter in his first 3 years in the league, despite being voted into 3 Pro-Bowls. Last season, he ranked 12^th on ProFootballFocus among centers in 14 starts, his highest ProFootballFocus rating in his career, though he really struggled in two starts at left guard. Still, he’ll be an asset for them on the line.

Starting at the tackle spots will be two former 2^nd round picks, Marcus Gilbert, from the 2011 class, and Mike Adams, from the 2012 class. Adams, the more athletic of the two, will get the first crack at the blindside job, although this is expected to be a fluid situation heading into Training Camp. Adams played 497 snaps at right tackle last season as a rookie and was pretty average, but he still has plenty of upside going forward. Gilbert, meanwhile, played pretty well as a rookie in 2011 on 905 snaps, including playoffs, but was limited to 246 snaps because of injury last season. He should be a solid starter on the right side provided he stays healthy.

The most experienced veteran on the line is Ramon Foster at left guard, who played the most snaps last season of any of their projected starters. Playing primarily at right guard last season, Foster was a solid starter and he is experienced at both left and right guard in his career. Their current projected starting 5 on the offensive line should all be at least decent. The issue, however, is potential injuries and their lack of depth. The only returning backup is Kelvin Beachum, who was slightly below average on 314 snaps as a rookie last year. Guy Whimper is the only veteran reserve and he was awful when called upon to play in Jacksonville over the past few years.

Grade: B

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

The biggest loss on offense for the Steelers this season was #1 wide receiver Mike Wallace, who signed the off-season’s biggest contract with the Dolphins. However, that won’t be as big of a loss as it seems. In 2010 and 2011, Wallace was one of the best receivers in the league, catching a combined 132 passes for 2450 yards and 18 touchdowns. However, Wallace held out long into Training Camp last off-season, putting himself above the team and was not the same all season.

Wallace was ProFootballFocus’ 91^st ranked wide receiver out of 105 eligible. He caught just 55.2% of the passes thrown his way and averaged just 13.1 yards per catch. Wallace has demonstrated for the past year or so that he’d rather get paid above anything, holding out at his team’s expense and then chasing the money and going to Miami so it was probably smart of the Pittsburgh not to lock him up long term (not like they had the cap space, but still). He could easily coast now that he’s been paid.

The receiver they chose to pay instead was Antonio Brown, who signed a much more reasonable 5 year, 42.5 million dollar extension last off-season. Brown caught 42 passes for 499 yards in the first 8 games of last season, continuing where he left off the previous season, when he caught 35 passes for 677 yards in the final 8 games of the season. However, injuries to Roethlisberger and his own personal injuries slowed him down in the 2^nd half of last season. Still, he doesn’t have a history of injury issues and he’s the clear #1 receiver now. He’s never really been a touchdown guy, catching just 7 touchdowns in his first 3 seasons in the league, but with Wallace gone that should change.

Emmanuel Sanders, who has been the 3^rd receiver for the past 2 years, moves into the starting lineup. He’s been alright in limited action and could be a decent #2 receiver now that he’s gotten the chance. The other complementary receiver will be Markus Wheaton, a 3^rd round rookie. I don’t expect him to contribute much as a rookie because rookies rarely do, but it’s worth noting that the Steelers have found Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, and Emmanuel Sanders in the 3^rd round or later. Wallace leaving takes a lot of the talent out of this receiving corps, but he wasn’t contributing much positive last season anyway and Roethlisberger should be able to make do.

The bigger loss in the receiving corps could be Heath Miller, depending on how long the veteran tight end misses with injury. He injured his knee, including a torn ACL, during week 16 last year and could start the season on the PUP, which would cost him 6 weeks at the very least. Even when he returns, it’s unclear how much he’ll be able to contribute so it’s a serious issue and a serious loss.

A very solid overall tight end, Heath Miller had the best receiving year of his career last year despite missing week 17, catching 71 passes for 816 yards and 8 touchdowns. The tight end position is a very important part of Todd Haley’s offense and Roethlisberger loves leaning on him as a safety net. The Steelers don’t really have a suitable replacement. No other tight end caught more than 7 passes for them last season. Free agent acquisition Matt Spaeth is a solid blocker at best and the same could be said about holdover David Paulson, who caught those 7 passes. It’s a more serious issue than Wallace’s departure. Overall, there are concerns here, but I like the unit’s chances of getting back in the top half of the NFL in scoring, which will go a long way towards getting them back into the playoffs, depending on how the defense plays.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

How well the defense played last season might come as a surprise to some people as they’re considered to be an old unit, but they still have a lot of talent and Dick LeBeau always knows how to get the most out of his personnel. That being said, of the 7 starters over 30 on their 2012 team, 5 of them return and are a year older. Only James Harrison and Casey Hampton are gone, with Harrison being replaced by rookie first round pick Jarvis Jones and Hampton being replaced internally by Steve McLendon and Alameda Ta’amu.

McLendon will get the first crack at replacing long-time nose tackle Hampton. McClendon played incredibly well in limited action last season, both rushing the passer and stopping the run. He had 3 sacks, 2 hits, and 2 hurries on 73 pass rush snaps and also held up against the run on 62 run stopping snaps. It’s obviously a very limited sample size, but he did the same thing in 2011. His versatility will allow him to stay on the field on passing downs and play some five-technique, unlike Ta’amu, more of a pure run stuffer. Ta’amu, a 2012 4^th round pick, didn’t play a single snap as a rookie because of off the field issues, but they’re giving him another chance. He’s the clear underdog in this battle though and I expect McLendon to win and have an impact.

On the outside of their 3 man base 3-4 defensive line, three guys will rotate, former 1^st round picks Cameron Heyward and Ziggy Hood, along with veteran Brett Keisel, one of those aforementioned 5 starters over 30. Keisel was actually one of the best defensive linemen in the league in 2011, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 4^th ranked 3-4 defensive end. However, last year he was very average, grading out slightly above average as a run stopper and slightly below average as a pass rusher. 34 in September, his days of being a great defensive lineman are probably behind him, but he could still be a solid starter.

He could also see his abilities fall off a cliff and in that case the Steelers would really need Cameron Heyward and Ziggy Hood to step up, even more than they would anyway. Hood was their first round pick in 2009, but has been a rare 1^st round bust for this organization thus far. Billed as a future starter on an already aging defensive line, Hood struggled for playing time early in his career and then playing big snaps over the past two years he’s been awful. He was better against the run in 2012 than in 2011, but not great and also offered absolutely nothing as a pass rusher, recording 3 sacks, 3 hits, and 8 hurries on 495 pass rush snaps, a pitiful 2.8% rate. He was ProFootballFocus’ 31^st ranked 3-4 defensive end out of 34 eligible.

Heyward has played sparingly in his first two years in the league, playing a total of 514 snaps, but he graded out very well on 267 snaps last year and the 2011 1^st round pick has proven himself worthy of more playing time. Hood isn’t good and Keisel is aging so there will be plenty of opportunities for him and he might outright win a starting job over Hood in Training Camp. It’s very possible both Hood and Keisel, pending free agents in 2014, are in their final years with the team. Hood is a bust and Keisel could retire so Heyward is the future of the position. It would also be a major help in the short term if he could step up as a key contributor on this defensive line because right now this looks like the weakest bunch.

Grade: B

Linebackers

In the linebacking corps, the Steelers have a pair of big money linebackers, Lawrence Timmons inside and LaMarr Woodley outside. Timmons was once one of the best middle linebackers in the NFL, considered on the level of Patrick Willis. He was ProFootballFocus’ #1 rated inside linebacker in 2010 and rewarded for his strong level of play with a 5 year, 50 million dollar extension the following off-season. 2011 was a down year for him because of injuries and because he had to play outside on occasion and rush the passer, which he was very unnatural at. However, in 2012, he bounced back to an extent, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 5^th ranked inside linebacker.

LaMarr Woodley, however, wasn’t nearly as good. He too signed a giant extension following the 2010 season, re-signing for 6 years, 61.5 million as a free agent. At the time, it looked well deserved for the 2007 2^nd round pick, as he was coming off 3 straight years in the top-6 among rush linebackers on ProFootballFocus, topping out at #1 in 2009. However, his level of play has declining steeply in each of the last two seasons, to the point where he was barely a league average player last year. He’s also missed significant time with injury in each of the past two years.

Reports say that both his team and his teammates have ripped him for being out of shape and coasting once he got paid, which would certainly explain his steep decline. Early reports says he’s lost weight going into camp and is taking things more seriously, so he could turn it around, only heading into his age 29 season. That would be a welcome sight for a Steeler team that has managed just 35 and 37 sacks in the last two years respectively after leading the league with 48 in 2010. Pass rush has been the Achilles heel of this bunch over the past two years and they were actually ProFootballFocus’ worst rated pass rush team last year, after ranking 25^th in 2011. Not only are they struggling for sacks, but they aren’t getting consistent pressure either. That probably has something to do with why they have just 35 takeaways combined over the past two years, after having 35 total in 2010 (more on takeaways later).

Woodley’s longtime bookend James Harrison really wasn’t do much in terms of rushing the passer either, though his run stopping ability was still very valuable. However, his steep decline in pass rush ability and his advanced age going into his age 35 season led to the Steelers cutting him, saving 5.105 million in cap space and 6.57 million in real money. They used a first round pick on Jarvis Jones to replace him and he could easily be the first Steeler rookie to start on defense since the 2001 season. He’s obviously very talented and was a projected top-5 pick after an incredibly productive year at Georgia, before medical concerns about a preexisting spinal condition coupled with a poor workout sunk his stock and dropped him to the Steelers at 17. He could prove to be a steal.

Jones’ competition for the job will be Jason Worilds, the more veteran of the two by default, though the 25-year-old is only in his 4^th season after being taken in the 2^nd round in 2010. Once seen as a potential successor for Harrison, Worilds has actually played alright in place of injured players on the outside in his career and wouldn’t be an awful starter or anything like that, but the Steelers seem to have soured on his upside as a difference maker. Either that or they were just really high on Jones, but pre-draft rumors had them very interested in a bunch of highly rated rush linebackers. Even if Worilds doesn’t start, which looks like it will be the case, he’s definitely qualified for a reserve 3^rd linebacker role and could see more playing time if either of the starters get hurt or struggle. Neither Woodley nor Jones are sure things.

Rounding out the 4-man starting linebacker group is veteran linebacker Larry Foote, the 2^nd of the 5 over 30 starters and easily the weakest of this bunch, maybe the worst starter on defense. Foote was brought back as a starter for another season out of necessity as they had other needs in the draft and little cap flexibility in free agency, but they’ll probably make finding his replacement a priority of their 2014 off-season. The 33-year-old Foote has been a fringe starter for the Steelers for years (with a stint as a starter in Detroit in between) and while he was once a very valuable backup and smart locker room guy, his abilities have almost completely eroded and he was ProFootballFocus’ 46^th rated middle linebacker out of 53 eligible in 2012 and it’s hard to imagine him being much better in 2013.

They don’t really have a better internal option either. Stevenson Sylvester was drafted in the 5^th round in 2010 to maybe be a potential future starter, but he’s too small to be anything other than a special teamer, though he is a very solid one. Sean Spence, their 3^rd round pick in 2012, is also size challenged, but he was one of my favorite underrated prospects of that draft class because he did everything else so well in spite of his size.

Unfortunately, he suffered a nasty knee injury before the 2012 season and didn’t play a snap. He sustained nerve damage and doesn’t sound close to returning. He’ll almost definitely start the season on the PUP and maybe miss the whole season. While he personally says he’ll be back sometime this season, linebackers coach Keith Butler says it would be “miraculous” if he ever played football again, which is a shame. They also have 6^th round pick rookie Vince Williams, but it’s a longshot that he sees serious playing time this year.

Grade: B

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Secondary

The secondary is the oldest unit of the defense with 30 starters over 30, but it’s also probably the most talented. Of course, as you can imagine with an aged group like this, there are also some potential concerns. Troy Polamalu is the biggest name (and biggest hair) player of the group, but injuries have been a major concern for him recently. Instead, their defensive back MVP of late has been cornerback Ike Taylor, who has been with the team since 2003 and has been as big a part of their defensive success as anyone, but hasn’t really gotten credit for it.

Taylor went down with a broken leg week 13 last season, just another of the Steelers’ late season injuries that eventually did them in. When healthy, he allowed just 30 catches for 448 yards on 68 attempts and while he did allow 5 for touchdowns to just 1 interception, he also deflected 10 passes, though he committed 7 penalties. Still, provided the soon to be 33-year-old’s abilities haven’t fallen off a cliff, he should be an asset for them, though age is a concern. His best performance was week 7, when he shadowed AJ Green for most of his game and held him to a career low 1 catch.

Opposite him, the Steelers have had several different cornerbacks over the years, but they’ve always held up in coverage. A testament to the Steelers’ defensive greatness, when these cornerbacks move on to other teams, they don’t play as well as they did in Pittsburgh and several like Bryant McFadden and William Gay end up returning. Dick LeBeau and his defensive coaching staff deserve a lot of credit for getting the most out of players and the front office deserves a lot of credit for identifying talented players who fit their scheme.

This off-season, the Steelers lost starting cornerback Keenan Lewis, a very important part of their defense last season. Lewis parlayed that strong season into a 5 year, 26 million dollar deal with the New Orleans Saints. However, as often is the case with the Steelers, they have a talented in house replacement who can make them forget all about Lewis. That player is 3rd year cornerback Cortez Allen, a 2011 4th round pick.

Allen served as the Steelers’ 3rd cornerback last year, coming into the game in sub packages and covering the slot. He played well, allowing 45 catches on 77 attempts (58.4%) for 448 yards (5.8 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 9 passes and committing 3 penalties. Because of this, he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 17th ranked cornerback, 14th in terms of pure coverage, despite playing just 563 snaps, fewer than everyone ranked higher than him. He also ranked 14th among eligible cornerbacks in QB rating allowed. He can play both on the slot and the outside and he should be able to make them forget about Lewis as he comes into his own in his 3^rd year in the league.

William Gay, as I mentioned earlier, has returned to the Steelers. He was a starter for them in 2011 and graded out well, allowing 47 completions on 89 attempts for 506 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and 9 deflections, while committing 4 penalties. However, as is often the case when cornerbacks leave Pittsburgh, Gay struggled mightily in his one season in Arizona, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 105^th ranked cornerback out of 113 eligible, allowing 52 catches for 726 yards on 88 attempts, with 2 interceptions to 1 touchdown. He deflected just 3 passes and committed 6 penalties. He’s only 28 though, so now back in Pittsburgh, he should be more than capable as a 3^rd cornerback, coming on the field in sub packages, playing outside, and moving Allen to the slot. If there are any issues with the top-3 cornerbacks, Curtis Brown is the 4^th cornerback, though he’s been inconsistent at best in two seasons after going in the 3^rd round in 2011.

While Troy Polamalu is the better known of Pittsburgh’s safeties, it was Ryan Clark who played every game last season, except for week 1 when he had to sit out in Denver’s high altitude because of his sickle cell trait. Though he’s entering into his age 34 season, Clark seems to be getting better with age, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 9^th ranked safety in 2012, excelling in both coverage and run stuffing. At his advanced age, it’s fair to wonder how long he can keep this up though.

Polamalu, meanwhile, is actually younger than him going into his age 32 season, but it hasn’t seemed like it the way injuries have been keeping him out of the lineup of late. He’s missed 22 games over the past 4 years and in those 22 games, they’ve allowed 20.2 points per game. With him, however, they allow just 15.5 points per game. He might be their single most important defensive player when healthy because he can impact the game with his mere presence and luckily injuries haven’t sapped his abilities when he has been able to suit up.

Despite playing in just 7 games last season, he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 13^th ranked safety last year and no one rated higher than him played fewer snaps than his 408. In 2011, when he played all 16 games, he was the highest rated safety. It’ll obviously be huge for them if he can stay healthy, despite his age. If he were to get hurt, or if Clark were to miss time, rookie 4^th round pick Sharmarko Thomas would probably step into the lineup. The Steelers traded a future 3^rd round pick to select him and obviously see him as a future starter. He lacks size, which is about it, but it could be an issue for him as he tries to stay healthy long term, much like Bob Sanders.

I mentioned the Steelers’ recent lack of takeaways, that’s something that should turn around. Since 2002, there have been 47 teams with 20 or fewer takeaways. On average, the following season, they’ve had 7.13 more takeaways the following season, which has translated to an extra 1.35 wins. Takeaways and turnovers and in general tend to be really random and the Steelers also have too much defensive talent to have this few turnovers. That will help their offense as well. They should be among the best defensive teams in the league again this season.

Grade: B+

Coaching

It’s impossible to be a lifelong Steelers fan 45 years old or younger and know what’s it’s like to have their team’s Head Coach on the hot seat. Chuck Noll coached successfully from 1969 to 1991, going 193-148 and winning 4 Super Bowls and when he retired, they hired a young defensive coordinator from Kansas City by the name of Bill Cowher. Cowher coached from 1992 to 2006, going 149-90 and winning a Super Bowl and when he retired in 2006, they hired a young defensive coordinator from Minnesota by the name of Mike Tomlin. Tomlin has gone 63-33 since and won the organization’s 6th Super Bowl title (most all time).

It’s tough to compare anyone to Cowher and Noll, but Tomlin can be mentioned in the same sentence with those two in a favorable way. He’s one of the league’s premier Head Coaches and possibly the most exciting part for Steelers fans is that he’s only 41. It could be another decade plus before the Steelers have to worry about the Head Coaching position. On top of that, they also have one of the league’s best coordinators in Dick LeBeau, who coordinates the defense. The 75 year old has been there since 2004 and has 2 Super Bowl rings in that time.

Grade: A-

Overall

The Steelers no longer have the talent they once did when they won 12 games in back-to-back seasons and made the Super Bowl twice in 4 years, but they should have a bounce back year. It took a lot of bad luck for them to finish at .500 last season, in terms of injuries and turnovers, and if they outgain opponents by as much as they did last year, it should translate into more wins. As is usually the case with teams that have a decline in wins of 4 or more like the Steelers did last year, they should bounce back at least half of that.

I think they’ll split their season series with Baltimore and while Cincinnati has had a ton of trouble beating playoff teams over the past 2 seasons, I think those two teams are evenly matched enough to split that series. I think they’ll probably take both against Cleveland, which puts them at about 4-2 in the division. Outside of the division, they host Tennessee, Chicago, Buffalo, Detroit, and Miami. They might be better than all 5 of those teams and should win at least 4. The road has been a bigger issue for them, as they’ve dropped several winnable non-divisional games there over the past few years. Games against Minnesota, Oakland, and the Jets which might seem easy could be trap games, while games in New England and Green Bay will be very tough. I have them winning 2 of those 5 and finishing at 10-6, sneaking back into the playoffs as a wild card.

Projection: 10-6 2^nd in AFC North

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2013 Cleveland Browns Fantasy Football Projections

July 8, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Browns, Uncategorized

QB Brandon Weeden (Cleveland)

8/20/13: As was expected all off-season, Brandon Weeden was named the Browns’ starting quarterback and I expect him to have a fairly long leash, even with veterans Jason Campbell and Brian Hoyer behind him. If he stays healthy, he could start all 16 games. However, he’s just a low end QB2. He should post better numbers in his 2^nd season in the league in a system that fits him better under Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner, but he won’t be that impressive.

Projection: 3550 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (184 pts standard, 216 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Trent Richardson (Cleveland)

8/27/13: So much for him being injury prone. Trent Richardson is, by all accounts, having a phenomenal pre-season and Training Camp and has gotten himself down to 225 pounds and in phenomenal shape. With Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator, he’s locked into a massive workload and should surpass the 318 touches he had last season. He averaged just 3.6 yards per carry last year thanks to injuries sapping his effectiveness, but he’s much more talented than that and he has a very strong offensive line in front of him.

Richardson struggled as a rookie through injuries, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry on 267 carries, though he did catch 51 passes and score 12 times on an overall miserable offense. Now, Richardson is struggling through injuries once again this off-season. Richardson certainly has the talent to be one of the best running back in the NFL, but the question isn’t with his talent. It’s whether or not he can stay healthy.

Projection: 280 carries for 1260 rushing yards 11 total touchdowns 56 catches for 450 receiving yards (237 pts standard, 293 pts PPR)

WR Josh Gordon (Cleveland)

One of the bright spots of the Browns’ 2012 season was the developmental of rookie Josh Gordon, a risky 2^nd round choice in the supplemental draft. Naturally, Gordon got himself suspended for the first 2 games of the season for repeated violations of the NFL’s substance abuse policy and is one strike away from being suspended for an entire season. Not only will he miss 2 games, but this could put a developing young receiver behind the 8-ball when he does return for week 3 and beyond. At this point in his career, Gordon is a great deep ball receiver and little else, playing inconsistent overall, but he could really shine in Rob Chudzinski’s offense. He’s a risky fantasy pick, however.

Projection: 54 catches for 800 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (116 pts, 170 pts PPR)

WR Greg Little (Cleveland)

Greg Little, a 2011 2^nd round pick, played better down the stretch, but only by default as he caught just 11 of his first 29 targets, including 6 drops. In the final 8 games of the season, he did catch 31 passes for 398 yards and 2 touchdowns with just 3 drops, so perhaps he’s finally turned a corner going into his 3^rd year in the league and he’ll be the #1 receiver for a couple games with Gordon suspended. He’s an unexplosive athlete, however, who is among the worst in the NFL in yards per reception and yards per reception after the catch. His future is as a #2 possession receiver at best.

Projection: 62 catches for 750 receiving yards 4 total touchdowns (99 pts, 161 pts PPR)

TE Jordan Cameron (Cleveland)

Cameron is very inexperienced having caught just 26 passes in his 2 years in the league since being drafted in the 4^th round in 2011, but the starting job is finally his with Ben Watson gone and while he might still be raw, his freakish athleticism and pass catching ability is exactly what Chudzinski and Turner want out of their tight ends. The 6-5 254 pounder ran a 4.59 with a 37.5 inch vertical at The Combine and was a basketball player at USC, much like Jimmy Graham and Antonio Gates at their respective alma maters. He’s reportedly been great this off-season and he has potential for a breakout year, though, of course, he’ll be handicapped by his quarterback play.

Projection: 45 catches for 600 receiving yards 4 touchdowns (84 pts, 129 pts PPR)

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2013 Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Football Projections

July 8, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Bengals, Uncategorized

QB Andy Dalton (Cincinnati)

In those 12 games against future playoff teams, Dalton was 250 of 445 (56.2%) for 2934 yards (6.6 YPA), 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. In the other 22 games, he’s 420 of 679 (61.9%) for 4518 yards (6.7 YPA), 35 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions. This is a concern considering the Bengals have to face 7 teams who made the playoffs in 2012, along with Pittsburgh (twice), Chicago, and what should be an improved Detroit team. I don’t expect him to match his 2012 numbers.

Projection: 3650 passing yards 25 passing touchdowns 17 interceptions 130 rushing yards 2 touchdowns (237 pts standard, 287 pts 6 pt TD leagues)

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Cincinnati)

8/29/13: BJGE is really only worth a late round pick at this point. He’s not an inefficient per carry runner and he doesn’t provide anything in the air. If he starts losing carries and goal line carries to Bernard, he’ll be useless in fantasy, except as a Bernard handcuff.

There is absolutely nothing flashy about Green-Ellis’ game. On 788 career carries, he has just 3 rushes for longer than 34 yards, but also just 3 fumbles. He also doesn’t contribute anything in the passing game with just 48 career catches. He’s good in short yardage, but he doesn’t do much other than run through holes that are blocked. He averaged just 2.1 yards per carry after contact last season after doing the same in 2011, both among the worst in the league, and he also was under 4 yards per carry for the 2^nd straight season. Bernard is the more talented back and even as a rookie will take carries away.

Projection: 150 carries for 590 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 12 catches for 70 yards (96 pts, 108 pts PPR)

RB Giovani Bernard (Cincinnati)

8/29/13: Giovani Bernard had a strong pre-season, especially around the goal line. He’s the more talented of Cincinnati’s two running backs and, while he may start the season splitting carries with BenJarvus Green-Ellis, he might not stay in that role all season. Few flex plays have more upside.

Bernard is not a full package back at just 5-8 202, but we’ve seen plenty of backs go in the 2^nd round or later with similar billings and go to be to very good running backs, including Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew. It’s unclear how much he can contribute as a rookie, however, as neither of those backs were every down guys until after their 1^st season, once they had more time in an NFL weight room. He’ll probably split carries with BJGE, but he’s the more explosive player and more of a factor in the passing game.

Projection: 190 carries for 840 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 40 catches for 320 yards (152 pts, 199 pts PPR)

WR AJ Green (Cincinnati)

AJ Green has blossomed into one of probably the top-3 wide receivers in the league before even entering the magical wide receiver 3rd year breakout year. He’s one of the top fantasy receivers (and real life receivers) in the game and I don’t see any reason why this year should be any different for him.

Projection: 100 catches for 1400 receiving yards 10 touchdowns (200 pts, 300 pts PPR)

WR Mohamed Sanu (Cincinnati)

Mohamed Sanu had a very nondescript rookie year, catching 16 passes for 154 yards and 4 touchdowns as a 3rd round rookie out of Rutgers. However, I love his fit in Cincinnati, with Andy Dalton having a weaker arm than most franchise quarterbacks, with Jay Gruden leading a West Coast Offense as offensive coordinator, and especially with AJ Green opposite him. Before the draft, I gave Sanu a 2nd round grade and compared him to former Bengal receiver TJ Houshmanzadeh, saying that the perfect fit for him would be for him to play opposite a deep threat like Houshmanzadeh did with Chad Johnson/Ochocinco and just eat up all the underneath targets. Little did I know that Sanu would be drafted by the Bengals, who were in need of a possession receiver like him to play opposite deep threat AJ Green. There’s some upside here late.

Projection: 50 catches for 600 yards 5 touchdowns (90 pts, 140 pts PPR)

TE Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati)

Gresham has made 2 Pro Bowls in his career, but he’s an underrated player who drops a lot of passes (10 last year, including 2 in their playoff loss), commits a lot of penalties (9), and doesn’t run block well. The Bengals brought in Tyler Eifert for that reason and will run more two-tight end sets, which will cut into Gresham’s targets. Look elsewhere.

Projection: 53 catches for 650 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (95 pts, 148 pts PPR)

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2013 Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Football Projections

July 8, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Steelers, Uncategorized

QB Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh)

Roethlisberger was on pace for 4406 yards, 32 touchdowns, and just 8 interceptions at the halfway point last season, before getting hurt and missing 3 ½ games. He wasn’t the same once he returned either. Unfortunately, Roethlisberger has played in all 16 games just once in his career. He should be improved over last year’s 3265 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, but he won’t reach those extrapolated numbers.

Projection: 3750 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (260 pts standard, 316 pts 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh)

8/31/13: Dwyer’s release is also good news for Bell, as it’s a sign that Bell is farther along in his recovery than originally thought. He’s out of his walking boot and while he’ll miss at least 4-6 weeks with an injury that tends to linger, his value is on the rise. The only concern is that Redman impresses in his absence, but Redman will probably go back to being just a passing down back upon Bell’s return.

8/21/13: Steelers rookie running back Le’Veon Bell is expected to miss at least 6-8 weeks with a Lisfranc injury and he could be a candidate for the injured reserve with designation to return, which would put him out until at least week 9 and his status is even more up in the air than that. There’s no guarantee he’ll be the feature back upon return either. In his absence, the underwhelming trio of Isaac Redman, Jonathan Dwyer, and La’Rod Stephens-Howling will split carries. Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley likes rotating backs anyway. It’s a fantasy situation to avoid.

A rookie 2^nd round pick, Bell is not an overly explosive back (his longest run of the last 2 seasons was 40 yards), but he’s incredibly consistent, capable of carrying a load, and a good pass catcher and pass protector. Bell averaged 4.7 yards per carry on 382 carries last year, catching 32 passes and scoring 13 times. He is expected to be the feature back for the Steelers, but Todd Haley has never been one for using just one running back. Even when he had Jamaal Charles almost setting a per carry record at his disposal in 2010, he preferred to use both Charles and Thomas Jones.

Projection: 150 carries for 630 rushing yards and 5 total touchdowns 23 catches for 150 receiving yards (108 pts standard, 131 pts PPR)

RB Isaac Redman (Pittsburgh)

8/31/13: The Steelers have cut Jonathan Dwyer. This is good news for Isaac Redman, who will be pretty much the feature back until Le’Veon Bell returns, with just change of pace backs La’Rod Stephens-Howling and Felix Jones behind him on the depth chart. It’s still not a great fantasy situation, but Redman isn’t a bad late round pick by any stretch of the imagination.

Projection: 140 carries for 630 rushing yards and 4 total touchdowns 25 catches for 200 receiving yards (107 pts standard, 132 pts PPR)

WR Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh)

Brown caught 42 passes for 499 yards in the first 8 games of last season, continuing where he left off the previous season, when he caught 35 passes for 677 yards in the final 8 games of the season. However, injuries to Roethlisberger and his own personal injuries slowed him down in the 2^nd half of last season. Still, he doesn’t have a history of injury issues and he’s the clear #1 receiver now. He’s never really been a touchdown guy, catching just 7 touchdowns in his first 3 seasons in the league, but with Mike Wallace gone that should change.

Projection: 78 catches for 1030 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (145 pts standard, 223 pts PPR)

WR Emmanuel Sanders (Pittsburgh)

Emmanuel Sanders moves into the starting lineup as the clear #2 receiver on an offense that usually is productive in fantasy leagues for wide receivers. He’s got some talent and has shown it at times over the first few years of his career as a reserve. There’s some value here.

Projection: 51 catches for 750 receiving yards 4 touchdowns (99 pts standard, 150 pts PPR)

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2013 Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Football Projections

July 2, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Ravens, Uncategorized

QB Joe Flacco (Baltimore)

7/28/13: Anquan Boldin was Joe Flacco’s leading receiver last year and Dennis Pitta was the guy who was supposed to step up as the top complement to 3^rd year deep threat Torrey Smith. Now Pitta is out for the season with Boldin gone and it’s just Torrey Smith and a bunch of question marks in the receiving corps. Flacco will make do because that’s what good quarterbacks do. He might not have a secondary go to receiver, but he’ll throw the ball around and I do believe that a full season of Bryant McKinnie at left tackle and Jim Caldwell at offensive coordinator will help him and that he should be able to maintain some of his post-season gains. But I’m obviously knocking down a bit with Pitta done for the year.

Throughout his 5 year career, he’s been a very inconsistent week to week quarterback, but an incredibly consistent year to year quarterback, proving himself to be a slightly above average quarterback and nothing more. His completion percentages have always fallen between 57.6% and 63.1%. His YPAs have always fallen between 6.7 and 7.4. His touchdowns have always fallen between 20 and 25 (with the exception of his rookie year) and his interceptions have always fallen between 10 and 12. Of course, that all changed in the post-season and while I don’t expect him to keep that up, I do expect him to have his career best regular season this year.

Projection: 3900 passing yards 26 touchdowns 11 interceptions 70 rushing yards 2 touchdowns (257 pts standard, 309 pts 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Ray Rice (Baltimore)

Ray Rice’s 257 carries in 2012 were his lowest since 253, when Willis McGahee was still around. With Bernard Pierce coming on as a very capable backup, that number could be even lower this season. The good news, however, is that Rice averaged a career high 5.3 YPC in 2009 when his carries were lower and Pierce’s presence will help him stay fresh. Also with Anquan Boldin gone, expect Rice’s catch total to be closer to his career high of 78 than his 4-year low of 61 in 2010. The only concern is if the bigger Pierce starts taking away goal line carries, but there are no indications that will happen.

Projection: 240 carries for 1130 rushing yards 10 total touchdowns 75 catches for 650 yards (238 pts standard, 313 pts PPR)

RB Bernard Pierce (Baltimore)

Pierce came on big time down the stretch as a 3rd round pick rookie. Playoffs included, he rushed for 734 yards on 147 carries last year, a 5.0 YPC clip. In his final 12 games, including playoffs, he rushed for 586 yards on 117 carries. He’ll probably see about half of Rice’s carries, but because he doesn’t do much in the passing game, the only way he becomes a fantasy starter is if the ever durable Rice gets hurt or he starts stealing goal line carries. He’s still a very valuable handcuff and arguably the best backup running back in the NFL.

Projection: 130 carries 620 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 12 catches for 80 yards (100 pts standard, 112 pts PPR)

WR Torrey Smith (Baltimore)

7/28/13: Smith gets a stock up with Pitta going down because he’s really their only reliable receiver remaining. The Ravens are really hoping that the talented young receiver finally puts everything together and has a breakout year in his 3^rd year in the league and even if he doesn’t take a big leap forward in terms of his play, he should have a much better statistical year based purely on the sheer number of targets he’ll receive.

The Ravens will need Torrey Smith to step up opposite him as the new #1 receiver with Anquan Boldin gone. Smith has flashed in his first two years in the league after the Ravens took him in the 2nd round in 2011, catching 50 passes for 841 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2011 and 49 passes for 855 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2012, but he’s yet to put it all together as a consistent receiver and something more than just an inconsistent deep threat. However, going into his 3rd year in the league, a year when young receivers typically breakout, he’s got a very good chance to. With Boldin gone, he should get a career high in targets and have his best statistical season, possibly going over 1000 yards.

Projection: 63 catches for 1100 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns (164 pts standard, 227 pts PPR)

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2013 Baltimore Ravens NFL Season Preview

July 2, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Ravens, Uncategorized

Introduction

Going into the 2012 playoffs, many people believed that the Baltimore Ravens were one of the weakest playoff teams and one of the most unlikely to go all the way. Some people even thought they were the worst playoff team and they had good reason to believe so. No playoff team had fewer than the Ravens’ 10 wins. They were coming from the weaker conference (the AFC was 25-39 against the NFC on the season and AFC division winners did not beat a single NFC playoff team in the regular season). No playoff team was “colder” than the Ravens were, having lost 4 of their final 5 games and having just fired their offensive coordinator a few weeks ago. And even when they had a strong record at 9-2, they had done so by winning 5 games by a field goal or less. They were a Ray Rice 4^th and 29 conversion (and a questionable call to boot) and a Ben Roethlisberger injury away from not even making the playoffs.

However, at the end of the day, it was the Ravens hoisting the Lombardi, going through Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, as well as hotshot 1^st year starting quarterbacks Andrew Luck and Colin Kaepernick in the process. All 4 of the quarterbacks they beat were perceived to be better quarterbacks than Joe Flacco, the Ravens’ 5^th year starting quarterback, a maddeningly inconsistent and boringly nondescript signal caller who was in the final year of his contract after the Ravens didn’t lock him up lock-term the previous off-season. Flacco outplayed all 4 of them in their matchups, completing 57.9% of his passes for an average of 9.1 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

Of course, the Ravens wouldn’t have been even in the AFC Championship if Rahim Moore had stayed in his assignment on a routine prevent play, but they were hardly the first team to need a “miracle” type play to eventually win the Super Bowl. From the Tuck Rule ruling to the David Tyree catch, it seems like this type of thing has become more the norm than a fluke in recent years. What the Ravens really proved at the end of it all was, once again, that the playoffs are a completely new season. Once you make the playoffs, the regular season doesn’t matter. Most playoff teams are very evenly matched and it all comes down to game to game execution and who gets hot at the right time. It’s what makes the NFL so hard to predict, even more so than other sports, and why you can never write any playoff team off.

So what led to the Ravens’ transformation from the regular season to the post-season? It was partially just getting hot, but there is much more to it than that. The way I see it, it was 5 things. The first one is the most recognized by the media, the return of Ray Lewis. Lewis didn’t play particularly well, contrary to what his tackle total said. All tackles are not created equal, or at least they should not be, and Lewis only had 11 tackles within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage on 1^st down, 6 yards on 2^nd down, and the full distance on 3^rd and 4^th down. He also got toasted in coverage on several occasions. However, his presence on the field and in the locker room coming back from what was supposed to be a season ending injury had a huge intangible value.

The second reason was the habitually inconsistent Joe Flacco just purely playing 4 straight games of very strong football. The third, fourth, and fifth reasons have to do with Flacco’s strong play and were contributing factors to it, in addition to just what Flacco was able to accomplish on his own. The third reason was the strong play of Anquan Boldin, who made at least a half dozen amazing catches and Flacco could not have won the Super Bowl without him.

The 4^th reason was Bryant McKinnie. The veteran left tackle barely played in the regular season because of weight issues, but he got his weight right for the playoffs and made his first start of the season in the first round of the playoffs. This allowed Michael Oher and Kelechi Osemele to shift to their more natural positions of right tackle and left guard respectively. This led to Joe Flacco being sacked on just 4.5% of his drop backs in the post-season and pressured on just 27.6%. For comparison, he was sacked on 6.1% of his drop backs and pressured 32.4% of his drop backs in the regular season.

The 5^th reason was offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell. Ordinarily, firing your offensive coordinator after week 14, as the Ravens did in 2012 after an overtime home loss to the Redskins, is the equivalent of waving a white flag. However, for the Ravens it was a move that had needed to be done for years as Cam Cameron was consistently overmatched as a play caller on a weekly basis. That was obvious. What was not obvious was how much of an upgrade Jim Caldwell, a first time signal caller, would be.

The biggest thing Caldwell did was letting Flacco unleash and throw downfield most often, rather than forcing him to run a more conservative offense. It had looked for years like Flacco was always holding something back and he might actually be more accurate 15 yards downfield than 5-10 yards downfield. In 6 full games with Caldwell as his offensive coordinator, Flacco threw downfield 20+ yards or more 41 times, an average of 6.8 times per game. In 13 games with Cam Cameron, he threw downfield 20+ yards or more 80 times, an average of 6.2 times per game. Of those 41 throws, he completed 20 for 714 yards and 6 touchdowns, with no interceptions.

Of course, he would not be able to load up for that many throws downfield if it weren’t for his offensive line giving him better protection and he would not have completed that many if it weren’t for Anquan Boldin and his own improved consistency, so it all really works together. Anquan Boldin is now gone, as is Ray Lewis, and Flacco might not be able to keep up that level of consistency for 16 games, but Jim Caldwell returns, as does Bryant McKinnie, and Flacco may have turned a corner as a quarterback. He probably won’t become the type of player Aaron Rodgers did after he got hot late in the season and in the post-season en route to winning the Super Bowl, but he could easily become the type of player Eli Manning became after doing so the first time in 2007.

All of that is a big part of the reason why I believe the Ravens will be a better team in 2013 than 2012. The other part of the reason is that I actually believe they have a more talented roster. This might sound ridiculous considering all they lost early in free agency. Ray Lewis retired, as did long time starting center Matt Birk. Ed Reed signed with the Texans and linebackers Dannell Ellerbe and Paul Kruger, who came on big time in their playoff run, signed with the Dolphins and Ravens respectively. For cap reasons, Anquan Boldin was traded to the 49ers and Bernard Pollard and Vonta Leach were cut. Also gone are defensive starters, Cary Williams and Ma’ake Kemoeatu, making it a total of 10 starters gone from their Super Bowl winning team.

However, the Ravens did not panic and let the off-season come to them, as could have been expected from GM Ozzie Newsome, one of the best in the business. Super Bowls are never won on the first day of free agency. That’s when mediocre teams like the Dolphins panic and overspend, but the good teams like the Ravens, Patriots, Steelers, 49ers, Giants, Packers, Saints, and Falcons never make big moves on that day and instead focus on smart signings, strong drafting, and careful cap management. You can say that it’s because those teams don’t need as much because they are already good, but none of them were built on big free agent signings.

The Ravens drafted very well, adding two first round prospects in the first 2 rounds of the draft in Matt Elam and Arthur Jones, who will replace Ed Reed and Ray Lewis respectively (technically Elam will play strong safety and replace Bernard Pollard, but safeties are so interchangeable these days that I think the statement still counts as true given than Elam is the future of the Ravens’ safety position).

Jones, their 2^nd round pick, might actually be the better of the two football players. A borderline 1^st round prospect before a hernia injury hurt his stock, the Ravens moved up for him in the later part of the 2^nd round and very well could have had a 1^st round grade on him. Jones was one of my favorite draft prospects this year. He’s undersized, but like 2^nd round picks Bobby Wagner and Lavonte David last year, he does everything else so well that it doesn’t matter so much. Remember, Ray Lewis was once considered undersized. It’s an unfair comparison at this point, but it’s worth noting. They also added defensive lineman Brandon Williams and fullback Kyle Juszczyk in the 3^rd round and 4^th rounds respectively, who will replace Ma’ake Kemoeatu and Vonta Leach respectively.

In addition to their strong draft, they made a number of smart free agency signings. Michael Huff was signed to a cheap 3 year deal to play safety next to Matt Elam. He was a cap casualty by the Raiders, but he is still a solid starter and a great value. Daryl Smith was signed to a one year deal from Jacksonville. He’s going into his age 31 season and missed most of last year with injury, but was one of the best linebackers in the league in 2011. He’ll play inside with Arthur Brown. Chris Canty was signed after being cut by the Giants to provide defensive line depth. They also traded a conditional late round pick to the Colts for AQ Shipley, who played well in place of injury at center last year. He’ll compete with 2012 4^th round pick Gino Gradkowski to replace Matt Birk.

Even when the Ravens made a big money signing it was a good value. After the Broncos made him a cap casualty, the Ravens signed Elvis Dumervil to a 5 year, 26 million dollar deal (with an extra 9 million available through incentives). It was a great value considering Paul Kruger got 40.5 million over 5 years from the Browns, despite the fact that he was only a one year starter. Dumervil, meanwhile, has 42 sacks in his last 3 healthy seasons, including playoffs, and is only 2 years older, going into just his age 29 season. He’s very one dimensional, but he’s better in a 3-4, having his career best year in 2009 under Mike Nolan in Denver, and should play even better in Baltimore’s scheme (similar to a Mike Nolan type defense) than he did in the last 2 seasons in Denver.

While I believe the Ravens are a better team this season, I don’t believe they’ll repeat as Super Bowl champs. I don’t think they were the most talented team in the league last year, but you don’t have to be. The regular season is about talent level. The post-season is about getting hot and executing. It’s the nature of a single elimination post-season. It’s very, very tough to be that one team out of 32 teams to win it all and there are more talented teams than them out there. They’ll also have everyone gunning for them and giving them their best as Super Bowl champs. There’s a reason why no defending Super Bowl champ has won a single playoff game since the 2004 Patriots.

However, they will have a strong regular season and prove the doubters about their off-season wrong. Their over/under of 8.5 wins is a joke and they should easily finish over .500. I do believe they’ll exceed their 10 win total from 2012 and go into the post-season in better standing than they did last year. Once they get there, it’ll all be about executing the best over a 5 week span like they did last year.

Quarterback

I already went into depth about Joe Flacco in the extended intro. Throughout his 5 year career, he’s been a very inconsistent week to week quarterback, but an incredibly consistent year to year quarterback, proving himself to be a slightly above average quarterback and nothing more. His completion percentages have always fallen between 57.6% and 63.1%. His YPAs have always fallen between 6.7 and 7.4. His touchdowns have always fallen between 20 and 25 (with the exception of his rookie year) and his interceptions have always fallen between 10 and 12.

Of course, that all changed in the post-season and while I don’t expect him to keep that up, I do expect him to have his career best regular season this year. Bryant McKinnie and Jim Caldwell will continue to have a big impact. He’s not a top level quarterback like Manning or Brady or Rodgers, but I consider him an elite quarterback comparable to guys like Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. One concern here is if Flacco were to get hurt, backups Tyrod Taylor and Caleb Hanie are not very good. They are arguably among the worst backup quarterbacks in the NFL. However, Flacco hasn’t missed a game in 5 seasons and what good team wouldn’t be screwed if their quarterback were to get hurt.

Grade: A-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

If there’s one thing that’s going to prevent Flacco from having his best regular season, it’s his receiving corps. Anquan Boldin is the most important player that they didn’t replace at all. With the exception of Aaron Mellette in the 7^th round of the draft, they didn’t add a single receiver this off-season. Jacoby Jones will start in Boldin’s absence. While he had that memorable play against Denver to send it to overtime, Jones should be nothing more than a depth receiver. He’s had chances to start in his career, but has never had more than 51 catches for 562 yards in a season.

The Ravens will need Torrey Smith to step up opposite him as the new #1 receiver with Anquan Boldin gone. Smith has flashed in his first two years in the league after the Ravens took him in the 2^nd round in 2011, catching 50 passes for 841 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2011 and 49 passes for 855 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2012, but he’s yet to put it all together as a consistent receiver and something more than just an inconsistent deep threat. Game to game consistency is his biggest issue. In 38 career games (including playoffs), he’s gone over 50 yards just 16 times, but he does have 5 games of 120 yards or more. However, going into his 3^rd year in the league, a year when young receivers typically breakout, he’s got a very good chance to. With Boldin gone, he should get a career high in targets and have his best statistical season, possibly going over 1000 yards.

Dennis Pitta is another receiver that will have to step up in Boldin’s absence. The “other” tight end from the 2010 class that featured Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, and Aaron Hernandez (oops), Pitta really came on down the stretch, catching 44 passes for 518 yards and 8 touchdowns in his final 10 games (excluding week 11 and week 17 when he barely played), including playoffs, which extrapolates to 70 catches for 829 yards and 13 touchdowns over 16 games. He’ll be their #2 receiver this year and take over as the primary possession receiver to Torrey Smith’s deep threat. Pitta’s only weakness is run blocking, which he doesn’t do very well.

Ed Dickson is the other tight end, but he’s not nearly as good. Not only does he provide very little as a receiver, catching just 21 passes for 225 yards and no touchdowns, but he was an awful run blocker, grading as ProFootballFocus’ 6^th worst run blocking tight end, 2^nd worst if you take the post-season into account. That’s especially bad considering he’s supposed to be the blocking tight end, coming in primarily on running plays and two-tight end sets. He was better as a pass catcher in 2011, catching 54 passes for 528 yards and 5 touchdowns, but he’s never been a good run blocker. The higher drafted of the Ravens two tight ends from the 2010 draft class, Dickson is clearly the inferior and a pure backup caliber player.

The 3^rd receiver is Deonte Thompson, an undrafted free agent who caught just 5 passes as a rookie. The Ravens like his 4.32 speed at 6-0 206 and have been encouraged by his off-season. They are hoping he’ll eventually beat out the marginal Jacoby Jones for the starting job at some point this season, but that might be shooting a little high for him. The fact that he’s the 3^rd receiver right now shows just how thin this receiving corps is and is a problem considering how much 3-wide sets have become a part of the league these days. Young receivers David Reed, Tommy Streeter, and Tandon Doss are also in the mix, but none have established themselves like Thompson this off-season. The receivers comprising that trio are all mid to late round picks from the 2010-2012 drafts who have yet to do much as pros.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

While his receiving corps is a concern, Joe Flacco’s running backs are anything but. Not only is Ray Rice one of the best starting running backs in the NFL, but Bernard Pierce might be the best backup running back in the NFL. Pierce came on big time down the stretch as a 3^rd round pick rookie. Playoffs included, he rushed for 734 yards on 147 carries last year, a 5.0 YPC clip. In his final 12 games, including playoffs, he rushed for 586 yards on 117 carries.

He took carries away from Ray Rice, whose 257 carries were his lowest since 2009, when Willis McGahee was still around, and he’ll probably take more away from him this season. However, Rice has publicly said he doesn’t mind and it’ll probably be good for both of them as it’ll keep them both fresh. That’ll be important for Rice as he heads into his late 20s. It might sound weird, but he’s already at 1216 career carries, which is more than halfway to the point where even great running backs see their abilities fall off a cliff and that doesn’t take into account the extra 311 touches he’s had from catches. He’s never had a serious injury in his career, but father time is undefeated and Pierce will help him lengthen his career.

Expect Pierce to get about a third of the carries between the duo, maybe 120-125 to Rice’s 240-250. Rice will still get plenty of catches though, especially with Boldin gone. He’s averaged 69.5 catches per season over the past 4 years, but will probably be closer to the 78 he had in 2009 or the 76 he had in 2011 than the 63 he had in 2010 or the 61 he had in 2012. I expect him to be 2^nd on the team in catches.

The one concern for their running game is the loss of Vonta Leach. Leach was a cap casualty after they drafted Kyle Juszczyk in the 4^th round. Juszyzck is a great fullback prospect (it’s very rare that one goes in the 4^th round), but he’s still just a rookie. Leach was ProFootballFocus’ top ranked fullback in each of the past two seasons and the 3^rd ranked in 2010. He was cut because he was making a ridiculous amount for a fullback on a cap scrapped team, but he’s still a very good player. Just ask Arian Foster, who has seen his YPA drop from 4.9 to 4.4 to 4.1 since Leach left Houston two years ago. It’s worth mentioning that Rice’s highest career YPA came in 2009 (5.3), when Leach was not around and when McGahee served as a capable complement.

Grade: A

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Offensive Line

Fortunately for the running backs, the Ravens have a very good offensive line, which is also fortunate for Joe Flacco. I already went into detail about how Bryant McKinnie’s presence at left tackle helped this offensive ine in pass protection in the playoffs, but they were a very good run blocking offensive line as well. McKinnie’s weight and age (34) are both concerns, but also long as he’s in shape, he should be able to solidify the much important blindside.

Michael Oher will play right tackle, where he’s been much more comfortable in his career (ironic for the star of The Blindside). Kelechi Osemele will play left guard, where the 2012 2^nd round pick looks like he could be on his way to being a very good player given his skill set and the way he played last post-season. Marshal Yanda is the other guard and probably their best offensive lineman. He started his career as a right tackle, but since moving to right guard, Yanda has ranked 3^rd and 2^nd among ProFootballFocus’ guards in the past 2 seasons respectively and heading into just his age 29 season I don’t see why he can’t continue to do so and make his 3^rd straight All-Pro. He’s equally good in pass protection and run blocking.

The lone new starter from their post-season offensive line will be at center, where one of Gino Gradkowski or AQ Shipley will take over for Matt Birk. Gradkowski played just 89 snaps as a rookie after being taken in the 4^th round, but he was drafted to be Birk’s heir apparent and should win the starting job. Shipley was brought in to give them another option just in case.

He came cheap both in salary and draft pick compensation and he actually graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 15^th ranked center in 2012, despite just starting 5 games (and playing half of 2 others) in place of an injured Samson Satele for the Colts. Though he’s an inexperienced player, I believe he could be a solid starter if given a chance. He run blocked well and gave up just 5 total pressures (0 sacks). Center is the most concerning spot on the line and along with McKinnie’s possible weight and age problems, they are the only real concerns on a very good overall offensive line for the Ravens.

Grade: A-

Defensive Line

Of the 10 starters they lost this off-season, 7 were on defense, but, as mentioned in the opening, they did a good job adding talent to replace them. While they lost 3 starters in the secondary and 3 in the linebacking corps, their defensive line is going to very much resemble the one they had last season. The Ravens play a base 3-4 defense with 3 down linemen, though they use a lot of sub packages and hybrid schemes.

One significant difference is that the Ravens will be having Haloti Ngata play more nose tackle, at least in 3-4 sets. He won’t be just a true nose tackle though and he’ll continue to be an every down defensive lineman. He led the whole front 7 in snaps played last season and could easily do so again this year. He struggled a bit through injuries and wasn’t quite as good as he normally is, but he was still ProFootballFocus’ 11^th ranked 3-4 defensive end, 9^th if you include playoffs.

His strength is stopping the run, which is why he is a natural fit to play the nose, but he generates some pass rush too, grading out above average and totaling 6 sacks, 14 hits, and 28 hurries on 609 pass rush snaps, a 7.9% pass rush rate. That’s why he’s able to stay on the field every down. With Lewis and Reed gone, the 29-year-old will be counted on to be a leader and he should have a better 2013 than 2012 now that he’s fully healthy.

The reason Ngata will be able to focus on playing nose tackle is because the Ravens added Chris Canty to rotate at 3-4 defensive end with Pernell McPhee and Arthur Jones. They did this rather than signing a pure nose tackle like veteran Ma’ake Kemoeatu was for them last year. He’s gone, but he won’t be a big loss as he’s a 34-year-old who graded out below average overall last year and who still remains a free agent as of this writing. 2010 2^nd round pick Terrence Cody was also deemed not fit to start by the Ravens. He’ll be a pure rotation player on the inside at best.

Canty comes over from New York, where he was a cap casualty. He missed the first 6 weeks of the season with a knee injury and only played 300 snaps overall, but he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 19^th ranked defensive tackle regardless. He’s scheme versatile, playing in both a 4-3 and a 3-4 in his career and doing so well, which makes him a good fit for the Ravens’ scheme. He should be a solid starter, assuming he doesn’t get hurt again, as he’s just in his age 31 season. Marcus Spears is another free agent edition, but he won’t play as much, if he even makes the roster. He’s a pure backup player who graded out below average on 394 snaps for the Cowboys last season.

Spears will slot behind holdovers Arthur Jones and Pernell McPhee, along with Canty. McPhee and Jones both graded out above average as starting 3-4 defensive ends, ranking 18^th and 16^th respectively at the position on ProFootballFocus, 13^th and 12^th respectively if you take into account their strong post-seasons. Both can play defensive tackle and defensive end in 4-3 packages. Brandon Williams is the other player who figures to be on the defensive line rotation. The 3^rd round pick rookie will compete with Terrence Cody to be the primary backup nose tackle and could cost Cody his roster spot. The Ravens have a lot of players who will rotate on their defensive line and overall I like their base defensive line more than last year’s with Canty taking Kemoeatu’s snaps and Ngata getting healthier.

Grade: B+

[yard_barker]

Linebackers

In 4-3 packages, Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil will serve as the defensive ends, but in base 3-4 packages, they’ll be the rush linebackers. Courtney Upshaw will be the primary backup at that position and Pernell McPhee has also been taking some snaps at rush linebacker, for what it’s worth, despite being around 280 pounds. Upshaw is also around 280 pounds as well, though they want him to lose weight. If he has a serious role in his 2^nd year after being taken in the 2^nd round out of Alabama, it will be as a pure two down run stopper, much like Jarret Johnson used to be.

He was an awful pass rusher as a rookie, showing no burst off the snap and recording just 2 sacks, 7 hits, and 13 hurries on 364 pass rush snaps, a 6.3% rate. Only 2 players graded out worse among 3-4 outside linebackers as a pass rusher and he also struggled in coverage, as you could expect at his size. However, he was the highest rated player at the position in terms of stopping the run. There won’t be a lot of snaps available behind Dumervil and Suggs though. The only reason Upshaw saw a significant amount of snaps last season was because Suggs missed 6 games with injury. In the post-season, he was a clear backup.

I already spoke about Dumervil in the opening. I think he’s a perfect fit in Baltimore. He excelled in a hybrid type scheme in 2009 under Mike Nolan, with 17 sacks, 7 hits, and 31 hurries on 419 pass rush snaps, a 13.1% rate. In 2011 and 2012 (after missing 2010 with injury), he wasn’t quite as good in Denver’s pure 4-3. He totaled 25 sacks, 18 hits, and 72 hurries on 1121 pass rush snaps in those 2 seasons, a 10.3% pass rush rate. He struggles against the run, but that won’t be as big of a deal in a base 3-4 and so did Paul Kruger. Dumervil should be able to at least come close to replacing Kruger’s pass rush production. Kruger had 15 sacks, 17 hits, and 43 hurries on 528 pass rush snaps, a 14.3% pass rush rate.

The other thing that will be huge for the Ravens is Suggs getting back to full health. Suggs essentially played through 2 season ending injuries last season, an incredibly valiant effort, but really did not produce, certainly not like the 2011 Defensive Player of the Year was used to. He played the run well, but had just 4 sacks, 6 hits, and 16 hurries on 379 pass rush snaps, a 6.8% rate. Post-season included, he was ProFootballFocus’ 26^th ranked rush linebacker out of 33.

That was a far cry from 2011, when he ranked 3^rd at his position, leading the position against the run and accumulating 14 sacks, 12 hits, and 37 hurries on 600 pass rush snaps, a 10.5% rate. He’s always been better against the run than rushing the passer, but he can also get after the quarterback. Assuming the soon to be 31-year-old didn’t wreck his body doing what he did last year, he should bounce back and the duo of him and Dumervil should actually give the Ravens an improved pass rush, despite losing Kruger, who was still relatively unproven and definitely overpaid by Cleveland.

On the inside, Daryl Smith and Arthur Brown will start, with Jameel McClain as the primary reserve and Upshaw maybe making an occasional cameo, considering he has been working out inside at times this off-season. Brown is a 2^nd round pick rookie, but he’s incredibly talented and as long as he’s healthy, I don’t see why he can’t be an above average starter and maybe even Defensive Rookie of the Year. Linebackers don’t usually have much of a transition period.

Smith, meanwhile, was ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2011, but has never played inside in a 3-4 before and played in just 117 snaps last year due to injury and is 31. The former concern should be eased by the fact that the Ravens run a hybrid, but the latter two are legitimate concerns. Still, it was a worthwhile signing and could easily get them a cheap, above average starter. McClain, as the top reserve, is a mediocre player coming off a serious neck injury. Upshaw might be their best option here in case of injury considering his run stuffing ability.

While Ray Lewis and Dannell Ellerbe are gone at middle linebacker, Smith and Brown aren’t a real downgrade. Lewis barely played last season until the playoffs and when he was on the field, he didn’t play well. His leadership will be missed, but his on the field play can easily be replaced. Ellerbe, meanwhile, was a solid starter, ranking 14^th among middle linebackers, but again I think he can be replaced. With Suggs healthy, I think this will be a better linebacking corps than it was last year.

Grade: B+

Secondary

One lost defensive starter that the Ravens didn’t replace is Cary Williams, but they could do even better than replacing him as Lardarius Webb is set to return from a torn ACL. While Williams is a very average starter who has graded out slightly below league average overall in the past 2 seasons, Webb was ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd ranked cornerback in 2011, allowing a 54.9% completion rate, 6.4 YPA, and no touchdowns, while picking off 8 interceptions, deflecting 12 passes, and committing 5 penalties.

He was off to another good start in 2012, allowing 11 catches on 24 attempts for 111 yards, no touchdowns, 1 interception, 3 deflections, and 2 penalties, but he tore his ACL week 6. He tore his other ACL earlier in his career, so it’s a concern, but he’s only heading into his age 28 season and if he comes back recovered and doesn’t get hurt again, he should be a more than capable #1 cornerback, something they lacked last season.

Opposite him, it will be a battle between Jimmy Smith and Corey Graham, a battle the Ravens are likely rooting for Smith to win. Smith was their first round pick in 2011, but he hasn’t played well in his first 2 years in the league. He’s got more natural talent though, while Graham is more of a slot cornerback than anything, and he’s reportedly finally gotten himself into shape going into a crucial 3^rd year in the league. If he can establish himself as a solid starter opposite Webb with Graham on the slot, this is a very good cornerback group. A positive sign from Smith: he allowed just 10 catches for 85 yards on 17 attempts with 3 deflections from week 15 on, after returning from an injury.

At safety, Michael Huff will take Ed Reed’s old free safety spot. Huff isn’t a future Hall of Famer like Reed is, but he might actually be an upgrade. He’s younger, going into his age 30 season, and he’s a solid starter. Last year, he played cornerback because of injuries and graded out slightly above average. In 2011, he was slightly below average at safety and in 2010 he was great at safety, grading out 2^nd at the position on ProFootballFocus. Meanwhile, Reed ranked 50^th out of 82 eligible safeties on ProFootballFocus. An aging player, Reed is close to done, while Huff can provide at least a year or two of solid starter caliber play. He also came at 6 million over 3 years, while Reed signed in Houston for 15 million over 3 years.

Matt Elam will replace Bernard Pollard at strong safety. Pollard rated 56^th out of 82 eligible safeties, something Elam should be able to at least do as a rookie. Overall, like the other 2 units of their defense, I think the secondary will be better than it was last year. Webb’s return will be a big part of that. The Ravens ranked an uncharacteristic 12^th in points allowed last year, allowing 21.5 points per game. I like their chances to get back in the top-10 this year. Offensively, they were a top-10 team, scoring 24.9 points per game, a number I think they can improve on slightly as well.

Grade: B+

Head Coach

John Harbaugh is just 1 of 5 active Head Coaches with a Super Bowl ring (Belichick, McCarthy, Tomlin, Coughlin) and the Ravens have made the playoffs in each of his first 5 years with the team, winning 67.7% of his games, including a 9-4 post-season record. They’ve won a playoff game in each of those 5 seasons and made 3 AFC championships. No NFL Head Coach has won more playoff games, overall games, and made more conference championships in his first 5 years as a Head Coach than John Harbaugh. He’s still slightly overshadowed by his brother Jim, even in victory, but he more than deserves his due.

Grade: A

Overall

I mentioned in the opening that I think the Ravens win more regular season games than they did last year. In the division, I think they win at least 4 or 5 games. They’ll probably beat Cleveland both times and Pittsburgh at least once. Cincinnati has talent, but Andy Dalton has shown a severe inability to beat playoff caliber teams. Assuming they play their starters in both games against the Bengals, they should win both of those games, but they do play them week 17 and could rest starters in the right situation, as they did last year in an eventual loss.

Outside of the division, they host Houston, Green Bay, Minnesota, New England, and the Jets. The Jets should be an easy home victory and I think Minnesota is going to have a tougher season this year than last. Houston, Green Bay, and New England are very tough opponents and they probably won’t win all 3, though they are a good home team. I think they come out of those 5 games with 3 or 4 wins, which puts them at 8-3 through the 11 mentioned games.

The road has been a trickier place for them, as they’re just .500 on the road in the past 4 seasons. They go to Denver, Miami, Buffalo, Chicago, and Detroit. I think they have a very good chance to win in Denver considering how well Super Bowl champs do week 1 and how disrespected they’ll probably feel as underdogs of more than a touchdown, but I don’t see more than 3-2 in those 5 games. Overall, I have them at 11-5 and winning their division for the 3^rd straight year. I don’t think they should be considered the Super Bowl favorite, but they’re a better team than they were last year. Once again, it’ll be all about executing in January and February. They’ll be in the mix, but I think Denver and New England both have more talent and possibly Houston as well.

Prediction: 11-5 1^st in AFC North

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2013 San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Football Projections

June 15, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, 49ers, Uncategorized

QB Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco)

In 10 starts last year, including playoffs, Kaepernick threw for 2406 yards, with 14 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 502 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 3850 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 803 rushing yards, and 8 touchdowns. Michael Crabtree is out, but Vernon Davis, who did nothing for him until late in the playoff run last year, should be able to make up for his absence along with veteran Anquan Boldin, 2^nd year receiver AJ Jenkins and a pair of rookies Quinton Patton and Vance McDonald. I’m not going to quite project those stats for him because he won’t catch anyone by surprise this year, but he’s still a projected top-5 fantasy quarterback.

Projection: 3600 passing yards 22 touchdowns 9 interceptions 700 rushing yards 7 touchdowns (326 pts standard, 370 pts 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Frank Gore (San Francisco)

For the 3^rd straight year, the 49ers have drafted a running back. While Marcus Lattimore might not play a snap this year due to injury, it’s just another reminder that the 49ers feel Gore doesn’t have much left. Heading into his age 30 season, Gore has played all 16 games in each of the last 2 years after doing so just once in his first 6 seasons, but the reason for that is because the 49ers have cut his touches per game in each of the last 2 years, from 22.6 in 2010 to 18.7 in 2011 to 17.9 in 2012. Expect that number to shrink down even more in 2013 with Kendall Hunter returning from injury and LaMichael James getting a bigger role and he’s no lock to play all 16 games.

It’s also worth noting that he’s tired out down the stretch in each of the last 2 seasons. In 2011, he averaged 4.9 YPC in his first 8 games and 3.6 YPC in his last 8 games, while in 2012, he went from 5.5 YPC to 4.0 YPC. He’s also not as big a part of the passing game under Jim Harbaugh as he used to be, catching 45 passes in the last 2 years combined after averaging 51 per year in the previous 5 years. Colin Kaepernick, who rarely checks down, threw to him even less, as he caught just 11 passes in his 10 starts. Gore is a RB2, but one with little upside and a lot of downside considering his age and the amount of competition in the backfield.

Projection: 220 carries for 990 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 20 catches for 160 yards (163 pts standard, 183 pts PPR)

WR Anquan Boldin (San Francisco)

Anquan Boldin had a great post-season last year and is their #1 wide receiver after the injury to Michael Crabtree, but he’ll probably be overdrafted. He turns 33 in October and while his production has been hanging in the 837-921 yard range over the last 3 seasons, I think it’s unlikely he gets across that 1000 yard threshold this year and he certainly won’t match Michael Crabtree’s 1105 yards. Vernon Davis is a better bet to lead the 49ers in receiving yards.

Projection: 65 catches for 880 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (124 pts standard, 189 pts PPR)

TE Vernon Davis (San Francisco)

Vernon Davis caught just 41 passes for 548 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2012 and was even worse in the 2^nd half of the year as he didn’t show any chemistry with new quarterback Colin Kaepernick, catching 16 passes for 174 yards and 1 touchdown in the final 8 games of the regular season. However, that changed in the post-season, as he caught 12 passes for 254 yards and a touchdown in 3 games. With another off-season working with Kaepernick, Davis should continue that kind of production and is the favorite to lead the team in receiving with Michael Crabtree out. He and Boldin are the only veteran receivers they have and Davis is simply more talented, younger, and more familiar with Kaepernick.

Projection: 58 catches for 900 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (132 pts standard, 190 pts PPR)

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2013 Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Football Projections

June 15, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Cardinals, Uncategorized

QB Carson Palmer (Arizona)

Carson Palmer is a better fantasy quarterback than real quarterback. In reality, he turns the ball over too much, is too inefficient inside the red zone, and produces too much of his production in garbage time, which is why he was able to throw for 4000 yards with a 85.3 QB rating on a 4-12 team that scored 18.1 points per game last season in Oakland. He’s a year older now and there won’t be as many chances for garbage yards in Arizona, where the defense isn’t nearly as atrocious as the Raiders’ league worst in 2012.

However, he’ll have a much better group of supporting playmakers as Larry Fitzgerald is one of the game’s best receivers, Andre Roberts has emerged as a solid complimentary option, and Michael Floyd and Rob Housler both have big time upside. He also gets a great offensive minded Head Coach in Bruce Arians who is going to give him a lot of opportunities to make things happen downfield and accumulate yards. He should approach 4000 yards again and be a solid QB2, albeit one with minimal upside.

Projection: 3900 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 40 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (222 pts standard, 270 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Rashard Mendenhall (Arizona)

Mendenhall was an overrated running back thanks to fantasy football in his first 4 years in Pittsburgh. He would accumulate a lot of yards and touchdowns, but benefitted largely from the offense he played on and the large volume of carries he received, averaging just 4.2 yards per carry and doing little in the passing game. Last year he bottomed out, limited to 51 carries by injury, averaged 3.6 yards per carry, and didn’t score, but he lands in a good situation in Arizona.

He’s a year and a half removed from the torn ACL and reunites with his former offensive coordinator Bruce Arians on a team that ranked dead last in rushing yards and yards per carry last season. Ryan Williams still has some upside on the depth chart behind him if he can ever stay healthy and they drafted a pair of intriguing backs in the late rounds, but Mendenhall will get the first crack at early down work, with Williams serving as the chance of pace back so there’s some value here. He’s the Arizona back to own if you’re into that kind of thing.

Projection: 180 carries for 740 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 20 catches for 140 receiving yards (130 pts standard, 150 pts PPR)

RB Stepfan Taylor (Arizona)

8/25/13: Ryan Williams just can’t get healthy. The Cardinals are shopping him ahead of final cuts and could cut him if they can’t find a taker. He’s not worth drafting anymore. 5th round rookie Stepfan Taylor is the handcuff you want for injury prone Rashard Mendenhall.

Projection: Projection: 120 carries for 520 receiving yards 4 total touchdowns 15 catches for 110 receiving yards (87 pts standard, 102 pts PPR)

WR Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona)

One of the great receivers of his generation, Larry Fitzgerald has sadly never really had great quarterback play, except for those couple Warner years, but he’s always produced. Last year, however, was too much for even him to handle as Arizona’s pathetic quarterback play limited him to 71 catches for 798 yards and a career low 4 touchdowns. From 2005-2011, Fitzgerald averaged 94 catches for 1309 yards and 10 touchdowns per 16 games and he’s only missed 4 games with injury in his career. Carson Palmer isn’t great or anything, but he should be able to allow Fitzgerald to bounce back in a big way and approach those averages.

Projection: 80 catches for 1200 receiving yards 8 touchdowns (168 pts standard, 248 pts PPR)

WR Andre Roberts (Arizona)

8/26/13: With Floyd locking up the starting job, Andre Roberts will mostly just be the slot receiver this year. There’s still room for production with him in that role because the Cardinals will be passing a lot and passing out of 3-wide sets, but he’s just a late round pick.

What was lost in Arizona’s miserable 2012 season was that wide receiver Andre Roberts had a breakout year, as so many receivers do in their 3^rd year in the league, just no one noticed because his production was limited by the guys throwing him the ball. Roberts’ 64 catches for 759 yards and 5 touchdowns not only were all career highs, but they are pretty close to what Larry Fitzgerald produced and he did so on 40 fewer targets and 80 fewer pass snaps. Like the rest of this Arizona receiving corps, Roberts will benefit from improved quarterback play. He’ll probably rotate snaps in 2-wide sets with promising 2^nd year Michael Floyd, but there will be enough 3-wide sets and enough yards to go around for both young receivers to get theirs.

Projection: 57 catches for 750 receiving yards 4 touchdowns (99 pts standard, 156 pts PPR)

WR Michael Floyd (Arizona)

8/26/13: Michael Floyd has locked up a starting job. He has big upside opposite Larry Fitzgerald in Bruce Arians’ offense.

Because of this fantasy football centric/immediate results world we live in, Floyd was seen as largely a disappointment as a 1^st round rookie last year. However, when you look at history, there is nothing disappointing about his rookie year. Receivers, even 1st round picks, take at least a year to come around. Since 2005, 28 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 40 catches for 557 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Floyd’s 45 catches for 562 yards and 2 touchdowns are actually right in line with that and he got better as the season went on, catching 32 passes for 435 yards and a touchdown in his final 8 games, culminating in a 8 catch for 166 yards and a touchdown performance week 17.

Plus, he did that despite some of the worst quarterbacking in the NFL. The Cardinals ranked dead last in the NFL, averaging 5.6 YPA, 28th totaling 3005 yards, 31st totaling 11 touchdowns, and led the NFL with 21 interceptions. The only serviceable one of the bunch, Kevin Kolb, only played the first 6 weeks of the season and Floyd only played 162 of 424 snaps in those 6 games, 38.2%. The rest of Arizona’s quarterbacks threw 3 touchdowns to 18 interceptions. It’s no surprise that Floyd’s big game week 17 came in the first game he played serious snaps with even a legitimate NFL backup caliber quarterback under center in Brian Hoyer.

Projection: 65 catches for 900 yards and 6 touchdowns (126 pts standard, 191 pts PPR)

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Da’Quan Bowers

June 8, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, that player is defensive end Da’Quan Bowers.

When Da’Quan Bowers tore his Achilles in May of 2012, he was presumed to be lost for the season. However, as has been happening more and more often lately, Bowers was able to return within 6 months and played in the Buccaneers’ final 10 games. Bowers didn’t play much, serving mostly as a situational pass rusher, but returning for a partial season undoubtedly helped Bowers in his long-term development. Heading into his 3^rd year in the league, that should prove to be very valuable for Bowers, a 2^nd round pick out of Clemson during the 2011 NFL Draft.

Bowers also played pretty well in limited action last year, with 3 sacks, 5 hits, and 9 hurries on 200 pass rush snaps and 5 run stops on 60 run snaps. Overall, he graded out above average on ProFootballFocus. Now even further removed from that injury and fully healthy, Bowers could easily have a breakout 3^rd year in 2013, assuming he stays healthy. Injury concerns were the reason for his fall from the top-10 to the 50^th pick in 2011, but he’s certainly got plenty of talent.

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Chicago Bears Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Major Wright

June 8, 2013 stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Bears, Uncategorized

Major Wright’s season was very similar to the Chicago Bears’ season. The Bears started the season 7-1 before finishing the season 3-5 in their final 8 games and missing the playoffs. Wright, similarly, had a great start to his season, but finished but just above average. In his first 8 games, Wright graded out above average on ProFootballFocus 6 times, including 3 games above +1.0 and 2 games above +2.0. He was only -1.0 once in those 8 games.

Overall, he was my mid-season pick to represent the NFC in the Pro-Bowl from the strong safety position. He had 14 tackles for offensive failure, also known as stops (within 4 yards of the LOS on 1^st round, 6 yards on 2^nd down, and the full distance on 3^rd or 4^th down) and only missed 3 tackles on the season. In coverage, he was thrown at 17 times, allowing 11 completions for 132 yards and no touchdowns, while picking off 3 passes, deflecting 1 pass, and committing 1 penalty.

However, in the final 8 games, he was positive in just 4 games, above +1.0 twice, never above +2.0, and below -1.0 twice, including a season worst -5.2 game against the 49ers week 11 that killed his chances of being a very highly rated player on the season. In that game, he allowed 4 completions for 54 yards and his first touchdown of the season on 4 attempts, missing 2 tackles, committing 1 penalty, and only recording 1 stop. Combined in his 8 games, he missed 7 tackles to 11 stops, allowed 12 catches for 131 yards on 20 attempts for 2 touchdowns, 1 interception. He deflected 1 pass in those 8 games and had 2 penalties.

He finished the season above average in both coverage and against the run, but was only 23^rd among safeties on ProFootballFocus. Now heading into his 4^th year in the league, Wright, a 2010 3^rd round pick, doesn’t turn 25 until July and still has plenty of upside. He’ll need to improve his consistency and his tackling, but he has a chance to grade out as one of the better safeties in the league.

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Football Fan Spot

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Year: 2013

Pittsburgh Steelers 2013 NFL Season Preview

2013 Cleveland Browns Fantasy Football Projections

2013 Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Football Projections

2013 Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Football Projections

2013 Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Football Projections

2013 Baltimore Ravens NFL Season Preview

2013 San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Football Projections

2013 Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Football Projections

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Da’Quan Bowers

Chicago Bears Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Major Wright