Month: March 2014

Green Bay Packers sign OLB Julius Peppers

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Packers, Uncategorized

This contract is officially 26 million over 3 years (with another 4 million available through incentives), which seems pretty weird for a player going into his age 34 season. However, this deal has no guaranteed money after the first year, in which he’ll make 8.5 million. The Packers can easily cut him after the season, avoiding cash payments of 9.5 million in 2015, and actually save 7 million on the cap. 3.5 million (1 million in cash and a third of the 7.5 million dollar signing bonus) is the cap hit for 2014, while the other 5 million would hit the cap in 2015 if he were released (as opposed to 12 million, 9.5 in cash, 2.5 million in dead money, if he were to be on the 2015 roster). It’s essentially a 1-year, 8.5 million dollar deal which the Packers can spread on the cap over 2 seasons.

That being said, this is still way too much to pay for Julius Peppers. I like the fit of Peppers in Green Bay. Peppers is aging and no longer able to play as many snaps as he once did. He’ll rotate snaps with Nick Perry and, to a lesser extent, Clay Matthews at rush linebacker and provide needed depth at a position where Perry and Matthews have missed a combined 24 games over the past 2 seasons combined. However, Peppers is not worth 8.5 million a year anymore.

A once dominant edge rusher, who graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2008-2012 and in the top-10 among 4-3 defensive end in every season from 2008-2011, Peppers has graded out 18th and 36th among 4-3 defensive ends over the last 2 seasons respectively. Last season, he actually graded out below average and that 36th place finish came out of just 52 eligible at the position.

That’s undoubtedly due to his age and he’s unlikely to improve going forward. He’s also unfamiliar with the 3-4, after playing in a 4-3 his whole career. That’s a lesser concern that the age, especially if the Packers go to more of a hybrid scheme this year, but still a concern. Combine that with his age and this signing doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Remember that John Abraham, arguably a better player than Peppers when he was released and hit the open market in a similar stage in his career last off-season, got just 4.6 million over 2 years on a deal he signed last July. I’m shocked Peppers got this much money and got signed in March.

Grade: C-

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Oakland Raiders sign OT Austin Howard

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Raiders, Uncategorized

This is an overpay for Austin Howard, who has been a solid, but unspectacular right tackle for the Jets in 2 seasons as a starter, grading out 31st among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in 2012 and 47th in 2013. Giving him 30 million over 5 years with 15 million guaranteed looks bad in comparison to some of the deals given to right tackles recently. Sebastian Vollmer (4 years, 17 million), Andre Smith (3 years, 18 million), and Phil Loadholt (4 years, 25 million) all were re-signed last off-season and all 3 of them are better than Howard.

However, the Raiders have a ton of cap room and money to spend to get to the salary floor and they’re hardly a premium destination so they can get away with overpaying guys more than most teams. I’d much rather see them overpay someone who can be a young building block for the team than appropriately pay someone who is 30+ and won’t be around much longer, which is much of what they’ve done this off-season (Matt Schaub, Antonio Smith, LaMarr Woodley, Justin Tuck, Donald Penn). Austin Howard is only going into his age 27 season can be a fixture at right tackle for a few seasons.

Grade: B-

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Oakland Raiders sign WR James Jones

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Packers, Uncategorized

James Jones seemed like a prime candidate to get overpaid this off-season, coming over from Green Bay’s explosive passing offense and as a member of a wide receiver class in free agency that lacked difference makers after Eric Decker and Golden Tate. He has been a featured wide receiver in an explosive pass offense for the past 2 seasons and hasn’t really done much with it, totaling 784 receiving yards on 664 routes run in 2012 and 817 receiving yards on 544 routes run in 2013.

The 14 touchdowns he caught in 2012 are an outlier as he’s totaled 23 touchdowns in his other 6 seasons in the league combined. He’s a marginal starting receiver that the Packers made look better than he was and now he’s going into his age 30 season. Credit the market for not falling into the trap and to the Raiders for scooping him up at a reasonable rate, 11.3 million over 3 years. It’s not a fantastic value or anything, but Jones is a passable wide receiver and under 4 million yearly is about right for him.

Grade: B+

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Houston Texans trade QB Matt Schaub to Oakland Raiders

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Raiders, Uncategorized

Trade for Oakland: I understand the Raiders need to spend a certain amount of money over the next 3 seasons to get to the salary floor for the 2013-2016 period (after being unable to spend much cash last season because of all the dead money on their cap). However, the Raiders, for some reason, have seemed much more interested in shelling out this cash to over 30 veterans rather than re-signing their own talented young building blocks and signing talented under 30 players from other teams.

I would have much rather seen them overpay under 30 building blocks a little bit, giving them the financial incentive they needed to play for a franchise with as poor a recent history as the Raiders, rather than signing guys in the tail end of their careers. Right now their best young player is probably Sio Moore. I like Sio Moore, but the Raiders need to be in a better position than this. Stefen Wisniewski, their center, is another young building block, but they’ve shown no urgency in getting a long-term deal done with him ahead of his contract year in 2014.

Jared Veldheer and LaMarr Houston, two of their few young building blocks from last year, are out, while guys like Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, Antonio Smith, and Donald Penn, who won’t be around at any time the Raiders can hope to be good, are in. Vance Walker and Pat Sims, two underrated cogs in the machine and part of the reason why the Raiders were passable defensively last season, are not with the team any more.

Walker is now in Kansas City, while Sims remains on the open market. Tuck, Smith, and Woodley are solid players, but I don’t think going from Houston, Walker, and Sims to them makes them more talented on the defensive line, just older. Donald Penn is an upgrade over what they had at left tackle for most of last season with Veldheer hurt, but he’s an obvious downgrade from a healthy Veldheer.

I really liked the Tarell Brown move as I think he’ll provide a massive upgrade at cornerback for cheap, albeit only for one year. Austin Howard, though he was overpaid, will upgrade right tackle. Matt Schaub, who they traded for today, also will represent an upgrade over guys like Matt McGloin and Terrelle Pryor, but the Raiders are now projected to have 30+ year old starters at 9 of 22 positions in 2014, a weird spot for a team whose #1 priority needs to be building for the future. Letting talented young players go and replacing them with aging veterans really seems to lack direction. Now, they seem to be going all in for a 6-10 season next year, even at the expense of playing time for youngsters.

All that being said, I’m not as down on Matt Schaub as others. He’s an obvious upgrade over Matt McGloin and Terrelle Pryor. Last year was miserable for Schaub, as he completed 61.2% of his passes for an average of 6.45 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, getting benched regularly for the likes of Case Keenum and TJ Yates and putting up a quarterback rating of 73.0, close to 18 points lower than the season before. He’s going into his age 33 season so he’s on the decline, but I don’t know if the decline is quite as rapid as last year made it look. He’s not the 90s QB rating guy he was from 2008-2012 anymore, but that doesn’t mean that his low 70s QB rating from last year wasn’t somewhat fluky.

He would have been a smart stopgap starter at quarterback on the open market for a team that needed one. But to trade a draft pick (even a late round one) and pay him 11 million dollars when he would have been available for no draft pick compensation and probably in the neighborhood of 5-7 million yearly on the open market in a week doesn’t make any sense. The Raiders were worried he’d sign elsewhere so they panicked and trade for him. Panicking because you think you’re going to lose out on Matt Schaub is not a smart move. He’s not a top-20 quarterback anymore.

Grade: C

Trade for Houston: As for Houston, this is an obvious win for them. They were going to cut him to save 4 million in cap space and 11 million in cash. Instead, they are able to get something for him and still take on the cap and in cash. Their compensation in return for Schaub is minimal, but it’s better than nothing.

Grade: A

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Denver Broncos sign DE Demarcus Ware

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Broncos, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

DeMarcus Ware has had a fantastic career. From 2008-2011, he was a top-4 3-4 outside linebacker on Pro Football Focus in every season. However, he’s going into his age 32 season and he’s shown some cracks and signs of decline over the last 2 seasons. In 2012, he was “just” Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker and last season he missed the first 3 games of his career, as injuries piled up, and finished 8th among 4-3 defensive ends.

It’s really nitpicking, but he’s heading into the twilight of his career and he’s unlikely to go anywhere but down in terms of his abilities going forward. He’s still a very good pass rusher, but the Broncos are paying him here like the elite pass rusher he isn’t anymore. I was shocked to see Ware get this kind of deal going into his age 32 season, worth 30 million dollars over 3 seasons with the first two seasons at 20 million dollars guaranteed. The Broncos are guaranteeing someone 20 million for their age 32 and 33 season. No non-quarterback deserves that. If anyone comes close, it might be Ware, but he doesn’t deserve that. His average salary of 10 million yearly is 6th among defensive ends (both 4-3 and 3-4) and he’s not that caliber of a player anymore.

Grade: C+

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Jacksonville Jaguars sign DE Chris Clemons

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Jaguars, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Chris Clemons struggled last year on 585 snaps, but that was because he was coming off of a torn ACL suffered in January. That, combined with his age (going into his age 33 season), his salary, and the presence of Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett in Seattle, got him cut. However, he was Pro Football Focus’ 4th, 10th, and 11th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2010, 2011, and 2012 respectively. When healthy, he can really play and he’ll be a great fit in Jacksonville, where he reunites with Gus Bradley, Jacksonville’s current head coach and the defensive coordinator in Seattle during those 2010, 2011, and 2012 seasons.

There are three concerns with this deal. One is obviously Clemons’ age, as he goes into his age 33 season. Two is obviously the torn ACL he suffered last January. He’ll be about 20 months removed from that by week 1 of the 2014 season, but there’s a chance that, combined with his age, he’s never close to the same player again. Fortunately, there is just 5.475 million guaranteed on this deal so it could be just a 1-year, 5.475 million dollar deal if it doesn’t work out (the max value is 17.5 million over 4 years, with 4.5 million available through incentives).

The third concern goes back to the age. The Jaguars have signed 3 defensive ends this off-season (Clemons, Jason Babin, and Red Bryant) who are all over 30 this off-season. Like the Raiders, they’re a bad team with a ton of cap space and, like the Raiders, I don’t really understand the direction they’re going. It’s still a strong deal though. If I had to guess, Clemons has an obvious average season this year for the Jaguars and the money is right.

Grade: A-

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Seattle Seahawks re-sign DE Michael Bennett

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Every off-season it’s the same thing. Teams with bad general managers like the Vikings overpaid guys like Everson Griffen (5 years, 42.5 million), while teams with good general managers like the Seahawks are able to get guys like Michael Bennett (4 years, 28.5 million) on good values. Part of the reason why they were able to get Bennett for so cheap is because they won the Super Bowl last year and Bennett wanted to stay with a contender, but the reason they won the Super Bowl was because they were well built. This kind of thing fuels itself and the Seahawks are definitely in a good situation.

This 28.5 million dollar deal over 4 years has 16 million guaranteed. The Seahawks signed the underrated Bennett last off-season on a ridiculous 1-year, 4.8 million dollar deal and he was a big part of their Super Bowl run. He seems to be rewarding them for taking a chance of him and for the success they were able to have last season. Bennett was Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 4-3 defensive end last season. In 2011 and 2012, he was 7th and 7th respectively. He’s the only 4-3 defensive end to grade in the top-7 in each of the last 3 seasons. He deserves to be paid like a top-5 defensive end, but this contract is only 12th among defensive ends in average salary. This is a steal.

Grade: A

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St. Louis Rams re-sign G Rodger Saffold

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Rams, Uncategorized

Rodger Saffold originally signed a 5-year, 42.5 million dollar deal with the Raiders, which would have made him the 2nd highest paid left tackle this off-season on a loaded left tackle market, which would have been an atrocity. However, Saffold failed his physical when Raider team doctors (possibly at the behest of an angry Marc Davis, the Raiders owner) said Saffold would need surgery immediately on his shoulder. Leave it to the Raiders to have to be saved from a massive deal by a failed physical.

After that mess was over, Saffold has now ended up signing back with the Rams for 31.7 million over 5 years. He’ll presumably play right guard with the Rams because they have reportedly felt all along that that’s his best position in the NFL. Saffold, a 2010 2nd round pick, has played left tackle, right tackle, and right guard in his career and, while he’s had some success at both left and right tackle, he was borderline dominant in 6 starts at right guard down the stretch for the Rams last season. Injuries are a concern, especially after the failed physical, as he’s missed 17 games over the past 3 seasons combined, but the Rams apparently feel much more comfortable with his shoulder than the Raiders and they desperately need right guard help after cutting Harvey Dahl. They needed offensive line help in general.

31.7 million over 5 years is a lot to pay for a guard. Assuming he will be a guard, he’d be the 10th highest paid guard in the NFL in terms of average salary. He could be a top-10 guard, and one with the versatility to play both tackle positions if necessary. He certainly looked like one down the stretch last season, but that was only in 6 starts and his injury history matters. They may have overpaid a bit, especially after the failed physical in Oakland deflated his market. I don’t know who else would have signed him to this kind of contract. That being said, it’s not a terrible deal. The worst part might be that they guaranteed 19.5 million to someone this injury prone. That’s only 1.5 million less than the Raiders guaranteed.

Grade: B-

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Oakland Raiders sign OT Donald Penn

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Raiders, Uncategorized

This contract is way better than the one the Raiders gave to Rodger Saffold (5 years 42.5 million). The Raiders lucked out when Saffold failed his physical, though it is pretty pathetic that the Raiders needed a failed physical to prevent them from making a massive mistake. That being said, Donald Penn at 9.6 million over 2 years, with only 4.2 million in the first year guaranteed, is a very solid deal. Penn was cut by the Buccaneers because he was overpaid and they had a chance to get a better offensive tackle (Anthony Collins) for less money.

However, he’s still a solid player who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 31st ranked offensive tackle last season and who has graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 6 seasons. He’s going into his age 31 season and he has a history of weight problems, but he’s still a solid starting left tackle and he’s being very reasonable paid. That being said, it’s another case of the Raiders signing an over 30 player. What is their end game with this rebuild? They had plenty of cap room. Why didn’t they bring back Jared Veldheer to man the blindside or go after another top left tackle?

Grade: B+

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Oakland Raiders sign DT Antonio Smith

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Raiders, Uncategorized

This is another one of the Raiders’ weird signings of 30+ year old players (currently 5 starters on defense are 30+). As I’ve said, this is a weird approach for a team that needs to focus on a two or three year rebuild. However, I like this move a little bit more than the Justin Tuck and LaMarr Woodley deals. It’s a little bit cheaper (9 million over 2 years) and they’re getting a similar caliber player to Tuck and Woodley. Smith is going into his age 33 season, but he’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 8th, 6th, and 18th ranked 3-4 defensive end in each of the last 3 seasons respectively. He’s especially excelled as a pass rusher, grading out 2nd, 2nd, and 5th respectively purely in pass rush grade over those 3 seasons respectively.

One concern is that he might be too small to play defensive tackle in a 4-3 at 6-4 285. He was already a liability against the run in Houston’s 3-4, but now he’ll be even closer to the center of the formation so his size could be an even bigger issue. Before 2011, he really was a player without a position, before Wade Phillips found the perfect role for him in Houston’s 3-4, giving him plenty of opportunities to be a one gap penetrator and get after the quarterback, even at the expense of the run. I don’t know how well he’ll fit schematically in Oakland, but I think this signing has a chance to be a good one, even if the Raiders’ entire off-season direction confuses me.

Grade: B+

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