Buffalo Bills (5-4) at Miami Dolphins (5-4)
The Bills might be the team with the biggest disparity in terms of their record versus how well they’ve actually played. They may be 5-4, but they’re nowhere near as good as their record. They move the chains at a 65.17% rate, as opposed to 67.93% for their opponents, a differential of -2.76% that ranks 22nd in the NFL. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are also 5-4, but they’re significantly better. They move the chains at a 73.99% rate, as opposed to 69.23% for their opponents, a differential of 4.76% that ranks 5th in the NFL. That suggests that the Dolphins should be favored by more than the 5.5 points they are favored by here.
However, the Dolphins are in a terrible spot, as they head to Denver next week, while the Bills host the lowly Jets. Teams are 59-42 ATS since 2002 as divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, while divisional home favorites are 98-114 ATS before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2002. Combining the two, teams are 62-99 ATS since 2010 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. I’m going to go with the trends and take the Bills, fading the public in the process, but I’m not confident at all.
Miami Dolphins 17 Buffalo Bills 13
Pick against the spread: Buffalo +5.5
Confidence: None
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Football Fan Spot 
Just wondering if you have any numbers that could suggest the Bills move the chains at a better rate with Orton at QB?
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They have been better, but it’s still not good.
In their first 4 games, they were at 63.30%.
In the previous 5 games, they’ve been at 66.46%
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