Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3)
The Cowboys have been horrible as home favorites since 2010, going 7-22 ATS in that situation. This isn’t unique to them as the whole NFC East recently has had less homefield advantage than average recently. At home, the NFC East is 73-82 since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.05 points per game and going 59-93 ATS. On the road, they are 74-78, getting outscored by an average of 2.34 points per game and going 80-70 ATS. As you can imagine, road teams in NFC East divisional games tend to do well, going 24-14 ATS over that time period as divisional road underdogs.
I’m not that confident in Philadelphia though because they are the inferior team and we’re not really getting any line value with them. The Cowboys rank 12th, moving the chains at a 76.22% rate, as opposed to 73.83% for their opponents, a differential of 2.39%. The Eagles are one spot behind them at 13th, moving the chains at a 71.83% rate, as opposed to 70.05% for their opponents, a differential of 1.78%. However, their offense hasn’t been good with Mark Sanchez under center, moving the chains at a 70.48% rate over the past 3 games. That’s about a percent and a half worse, despite the fact that they were facing Carolina (30th in rate of moving the chains allowed), Green Bay (29th), and Tennessee (31st). That’s about as easy of a schedule as you can get for an offense.
That’s also despite having Chip Kelly at head coach and despite the offensive line finally getting healthy. Even though Nick Foles wasn’t playing well himself, Sanchez has proven to be an inferior quarterback to Foles, which shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. They’ve put up some big point totals recently, scoring 45 against Carolina and 43 against Tennessee, but both were powered by 3 return touchdowns, were isn’t a sustainable way to put up points. The Eagles have a solid defense, but the Cowboys are the toughest defense that Sanchez has faced (that’s not saying much) and they could give him trouble. I’m still taking the Eagles here on the road, but I’m not confident.
Philadelphia Eagles 24 Dallas Cowboys 23 Upset Pick +155
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3