Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

Seattle Seahawks (7-4) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4)

The Seahawks beat the Cardinals in Seattle in impressive fashion last week, but they are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 46-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 44-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.80 points per game at home. This is opposed to a 24-42 record away from home (28-37-1 ATS), getting outscored by 3.76 points per game. This season, they are 2-3 on the road, as opposed to 5-1 at home. On the road, they’ve moved the chains at a 77.18% rate, as opposed to 76.81% for their opponents, a differential of 0.37%.

They’re even worse on the road as road underdogs, going 15-25 ATS in that spot since 2007, including 9-18 ATS as road underdogs off a home game. This is only the 3rd time they’ve been road underdogs over the past 2 seasons, but for good reason (the other two instances were last year in San Francisco and two weeks ago in Kansas City). They aren’t as good as they were last season (the fact that they’ll be without Brandon Mebane and Max Unger this week doesn’t help) and San Francisco is solid.

San Francisco isn’t quite as good as their record, ranking 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 71.47% rate, as opposed to 70.98% for their opponents, a differential of 0.49%. However, they’re still solid and Seattle only ranks 9th, moving the chains at a 75.89% rate, as opposed to 72.15% for their opponents, a differential of 3.74%. As I said, they aren’t as good this season, especially on the road. San Francisco definitely deserves to be home favorites here. As they did in their other two instances as road underdogs over the past two seasons and as they did in their previous two trips to San Francisco with Russell Wilson, I expect the Seahawks to lose straight up here.

San Francisco is also in the better spot as their next game is in Oakland. They will have absolutely no distractions with such an easy game coming up in ten days, while Seattle has another tough game in Philadelphia up next, where they could once again be road underdogs. San Francisco, meanwhile, will almost definitely be significant road favorites. Teams are 87-57 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, including 55-33 ATS before being 4+ point favorites, and 23-7 ATS before being 7+ point favorites. I have confidence that the 49ers will win here.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Seattle Seahawks 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -1

Confidence: Medium




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