Houston Texans (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)

Both teams are in terrible spots here. The Jaguars have to go to Baltimore next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs and teams are 44-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. Meanwhile, the Texans have to go to Indianapolis next week, where they are projected to be 7 point underdogs. Favorites of 6 or more are just 46-80 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more since 2002. Even worse, teams are 17-32 ATS since 1989 as road favorites of 4+ before being road underdogs of 4+.

I’m taking the Jaguars because this line is too high and the public is all over Houston. This line has shifted from 3.5 to 6 from last week to this week. I love fading a huge line movement whenever it makes sense and I think it does here because this line should be right around where it was last week, according to rate of moving the chains differential. The Texans rank just 22^nd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 71.62% rate, as opposed to 73.00% for their opponents, a differential of -1.38%. Meanwhile, the Jaguars rank 30^th, moving the chains at a 65.71% rate, as opposed to 72.87% for their opponents, a differential of -7.15%. I also love fading the public whenever it makes sense and I think it does here. I’m not confident in Jacksonville though.

Houston Texans 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +6

Confidence: None

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