Top-200 NFL Players: 151-175 (2014)

This 8-part series counts down the top-200 players in the NFL. 200 might sounds like a lot, but with 53 players on 32 teams’ rosters, that’s 1696 players. Count guys on the practice squad, guys on the PUP or the IR, and guys who are free agents, but still on teams’ radar. That’s probably 2000 players. These guys are the top 10%. Positional value doesn’t matter because if it did, this list would be too quarterback heavy.

151. TE Julius Thomas (Denver)

Last season, Julius Thomas caught 65 passes for 788 yards and 12 touchdowns on 436 routes run (1.81 yards per route run). He’s a solid pass catcher, but he’s a one year wonder (1 catch on 50 snaps in his first 2 seasons in the league after going in the 4th round in 2011) and he benefits a lot from having Peyton Manning under center. He’s also an awful blocker, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked tight end in run blocking grade. He’s still one of the better tight ends in the league though and a serious matchup problem, grading out 3rd best among tight ends in pass catching grade.

Last year: NA

152. DT Kawaan Short (Carolina)

Star Lotulelei was the Panthers 1st round pick in 2013, while Short was their 2nd rounder, but Short is better than Lotulelei, not just because he ranked higher (13th to 16th) on fewer snaps (528 to 620), but because he was more well-rounded, while Lotulelei struggled as a pass rusher and excelled against the run. Short is an overall great player and could be even better in his 2nd year in the league in 2014.

Last year: NA

153. OT Jake Long (St. Louis)

Jake Long graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked offensive tackle last season. However, he tore his ACL week 16 and, even if he is on track for week 1, he might not be 100%, especially not to start the season. It wouldn’t be as concerning if Long didn’t have an injury history. Long, the 1st overall pick in 2008, was arguably the best offensive tackle in the game from 2008-2010, grading out 10th, 2nd, and 3rd respectively on Pro Football Focus in those 3 seasons. However, back problems slowed him in 2011 and 2012, causing him to finish 20th and 46th in those 2 seasons respectively and miss a combined 6 games. Now going into his age 29 season, I expect him to be inferior to last season in 2014.

Last year: 192

154. MLB Brian Cushing (Houston)

Cushing is a dominant middle linebacker when he’s on the field. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker as a rookie in 2009, after going in the first round, winning Defensive Rookie of the Year. In 2011, he was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked middle linebacker. However, he missed 4 games with suspension in 2010, which put him behind the 8-ball and caused him to grade out below average. That’s the only season in 5 years in the league in which he graded out below average, but he’s missed 20 games over the past 2 seasons combined with leg injuries, which is a serious concern. He should be ready to go for this season, but he’s very injury prone and, even only going into his age 27 season, there are no guarantees that he can be as good as he once was, even if he stays on the field.

Last year: 100

155. OLB John Abraham (Arizona)

John Abraham was signed by the Cardinals to a 2-year, 4.6 million dollar deal last off-season in late July and he turned out to be one of the biggest steals of the off-season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 13thranked 3-4 outside linebacker last season. Despite his advanced age, this should not have been a surprise as the active all-time leader in sacks (9th all-time) and potential future Hall-of-Famer graded out in the top-4 among 4-3 defensive ends in every season from Pro Football Focus’ origin in 2007 and 2012. This issue is now he’s going into his age 36 season and he got arrested for DUI for the 2nd time in his career this off-season. He might not be facing a suspension, but he missed a lot of off-season practice while in rehab, which won’t help him fight off father time. His abilities could fall off the cliff this season, after he already showed some decline last season (as compared to 2007-2012).

Last year: NA

156. DT Terrance Knighton (Denver)

Knighton broke out in his first year in Denver, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked defensive tackle. He was one of 4 defensive tackles (Randy Starks, Marcell Dareus, Brandon Mebane) to grade out top-13 in pass rushing and run stuffing among defensive tackles. A 6-3 320 pounder with rare movement skills for his size, Knighton followed up his dominant regular season with an even stronger post-season, including a dominant, disruptive performance in the AFC Championship game against New England. He’s still a one year wonder, as he was pretty much just an average starter in the first 4 years of his career in Jacksonville, but he’s still relatively young (going into his age 28 season) so the notion that last year’s breakout season could become the new normal for him is hardly farfetched. He’s an excellent scheme fit in defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio’s system. Del Rio was the head coach who drafted him in the 3rd round of the 2009 NFL Draft with Jacksonville.

Last year: NA

157. DE Justin Smith (San Francisco)

Smith is one of the better interior defensive linemen of his era, grading out above average on Pro Football Focus in every season since their origin in 2007, maxing out at #1 among 3-4 defensive ends in 2009, 2010, and 2011. However, he’s an aging player, going into his age 35 season, who has gone from 1st at his position in 2011, to 6th in 2012, to 16th in 2013. He’s also seen his snaps go down from 947 to 840 to 796 last season and he could see closer to 700 this season.

Last year: 43

158. DE Mike DeVito (Kansas City)

Playing just 446 snaps, Mike DeVito was Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2013, with no one playing fewer snaps than him and grading out higher, and he was 4th in pure run grade. In 2012, he was 12th at his position on 554 snaps, including 12th in pure run grade. In 2011, he was 9th at his position on 414 snaps, including 4th in pure run grade. In 2010, he was 8th at his position on 552 snaps, including 2nd in pure run grade. Somehow, only Calais Campbell has also graded out top-12 among 3-4 defensive ends in each of the last 4 seasons and DeVito is doing it despite playing only half the snaps. He’s the best pure base package player in the NFL.

Last year: NA

159. OLB Derrick Morgan (Tennessee)

Derrick Morgan has been the Titans’ best edge rusher over the past 2 seasons, but he could be adversely affected by the Titans’ scheme change to a 3-4. Morgan took until his 3rd year in the league to make an impact because the 2010 1st round pick got hurt as a rookie and then struggled upon his return in his 2nd year in the league, but he’s been Pro Football Focus’ 5th and 11th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012 and 2013 respectively, showing those first round abilities. He’s especially excelled as a pass rusher, while struggling against the run. Morgan played at around 6-3 275 last season and has slimmed down to 6-3 260 to play 3-4 outside linebacker this season, a position he has very little, if any experience with. Dropping into coverage and rushing from a two-point stance are both very new for him. Between the position change and the weight loss needed for the position change, the Titans are taking a major chance tinkering with a proven player with Morgan, as they are also doing with Casey.

Last year: 74

160. WR Michael Floyd (Arizona)

Michael Floyd broke out in his 2nd year in the league in 2013, as the 13th overall pick in 2012 caught 65 passes for 1041 yards and 5 touchdowns on 107 targets (60.7%) and 569 routes run, an average of 1.83 yards per route run. He was Pro Football Focus’ 22nd ranked wide receiver last season. He’s still a one year wonder as an NFL player, after struggling as a rookie, but rookie receivers tend to struggle anyway and he’s got a ton of talent. He could be even better in his 3rd year in the league.

Last year: NA

161. G Kevin Zeitler (Cincinnati)

A 2012 1st round pick, Kevin Zeitler wasn’t as good in 2013 as he was in 2012, when he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked guard. He graded out 27th in 2013 and missed 4 games. However, going into his 3rd year in the league, he could easily have a bounce back year. Either way, there’s nothing to suggest that he won’t have another solid year at the very least.

Last year: 119

162. DT Henry Melton (Dallas)

The Cowboys signed Henry Melton from Chicago this off-season, reuniting him with former defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli, but he’s coming off of a torn ACL and a rough start to the 2013 season, in which he struggled mightily on 125 snaps before getting hurt. He could return to form this season, back with Marinelli, and he’s still young, only going into his age 28 season, but ACL injuries are tricky. At his best, he’s a very good defensive tackle and the 6-3 260 pounder is a fantastic fit as a one gap penetrator in a scheme like Marinelli’s. He was Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked defensive tackle in 2012 and 14th ranked defensive tackle in 2011 (grading out well above average as a pass rusher and below average as a run stopper in both seasons), after struggling on a combined 353 snaps in his first 2 seasons in the league after being drafted in the 4th round in 2009. A return to form would be much appreciated by the Cowboys, but it’s not a guarantee.

Last year: 86

163. OT Sebastian Vollmer (New England)

Sebastian Vollmer, who only played 516 snaps in 8 games before breaking his leg last season. He was dominant before the injury, on his way to probably the best season of his career in his 5th year in the league. He still graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 21st ranked offensive tackle despite the limited playing time. No offensive tackle played fewer snaps than him and graded out higher. Vollmer has been a very solid player since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2009. He’s been a top-21 offensive tackle on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 5 seasons, doing so in 2011 and 2013 despite playing 6 and 8 games respectively. The issue is he’s never played a full 16 game season and he’s missed 25 games in 5 seasons. The fact that he’s been this consistently good despite his inability to stay healthy is impressive, but he’s very hard to rely on.

Last year: 151

164. WR DeSean Jackson (Washington)

Jackson was Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked wide receiver last season, catching 82 passes for 1332 yards and 9 touchdowns, all either career highs or tying career highs. He caught 68.9% of his targets and averaged 2.45 yards per route run, 6th in the NFL. However, the Eagles still cut him because they felt he was largely a product of Chip Kelly’s system, because of his inconsistent past, and because of his salary. The Redskins are paying him less money, 24 million over 3 years, so it’s not a bad value, but expecting him to be the player he was last season is a little short-sighted. From his rookie year in 2008 to 2012, Jackson maxed out as Pro Football Focus’ 34th ranked wide receiver. He’s not historically nearly as efficient as he showed himself to be last season. He could have another strong year, but I doubt he reaches last year’s numbers.

Last year: 194

165. C Evan Dietrich-Smith (Tampa Bay)

Dietrich-Smith took over as the starting center from Jeff Saturday late in the 2012 season and played solid in limited action and then graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked center in 2013 in his first full season as a starter. He’s still just a one year wonder, but the Buccaneers are getting a steal by signing him to a 4-year, 14.25 million dollar deal this off-season.

Last year: NA

166. G Geoff Schwartz (NY Giants)

Schwartz is one of the most underrated players in football and the Giants got a steal getting him for 16.8 million over 4 years with 6.2 million guaranteed. He played well in 2010 with the Panthers, in 11 games at guard and 5 games at tackle. His composite grade would have been 5th among guard and 13th among tackles on Pro Football Focus. However, he missed the entire 2011 season with injury and was relegated to reserve work in Minnesota in 2012, impressing in limited action. In 2013 with the Chiefs, he played 549 snaps at left guard, right guard, and right tackle and his composite grade would have been 7th among guards and 15th among tackles, despite the limited playing time. Now that he’ll be a full-time starter, Schwartz has the ability to emerge as a top-10 or even a top-5 guard in the NFL.

Last year: NA

167. RB Giovani Bernard (Cincinnati)

Bernard only had 170 carries as a rookie, rushing for 695 yards and 5 touchdowns, an average of 4.09 yards per carry, but he also caught 56 passes for 514 yards and another 3 touchdowns. One of the more explosive players in space in the NFL, Bernard graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked running back overall and their 3rd ranked running back in pass catching grade, showing himself to be an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate. Bernard might not have quite as many catches this season in a run heavier offense, but there will be more opportunity for him to carry the ball in his 2nd year in the league. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is expected to be a non-factor this year, if he even makes the roster, and the Bengals will run more than they did last season.  Bernard is the lead back and could have 300+ touches.

Last year: NA

168. G Orlando Franklin (Denver)

Orlando Franklin will move to left guard from right tackle for the Broncos. That’s a risky move as Franklin was playing so well at right tackle over the past two seasons. The 2011 2nd round pick does have some left guard experience from college and left guard is generally an easier position to play, but Franklin was Pro Football Focus’ 12th and 17th ranked offensive tackle in 2012 and 2013 respectively and there’s no guarantee he’ll be as good inside.

Last year: 165

169. DE Cameron Heyward (Pitsburgh)

Cameron Heyward, a 2011 1st round pick, played 845 snaps last season and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked 3-4 defensive end last season. Last year was his first year as a starter, but he showed well as a reserve on 198 snaps in 2011 and 267 snaps in 2012, before breaking out last year. The talented 5-technique could easily have another strong season next year. The Steelers picked up his 5th year option for 2015.

Last year: NA

170. G Matt Slauson (Chicago)

Matt Slauson was Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked guard last season. That was the first year he had done anything like that, but he also graded out above average in each of his first 3 seasons as a starter in the league from 2010-2012 with the Jets. The Bears got a steal signing him on a one-year deal prior to last season and they’re getting a steal again bringing him back on a 4-year, 12.8 million dollar deal this off-season. He hasn’t missed a start in the last 4 seasons and he should have another strong season in 2014.

Last year: NA

171. DE Rob Ninkovich (New England)

A lot of teams believe in rotating their defensive ends. The Patriots apparently don’t as both Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones were among the top-2 in snaps played by defensive ends. Ninkovich played 1112 snaps, missing 52 total, and playing an average of 69.6 snaps per snaps. Still, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked 4-3 defensive end, including #1 against the run. I don’t know if Ninkovich can improve on the best season of his career as he goes into his age 30 season though. He was Pro Football Focus’ 36th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012, 10th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2011, and 17th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2010. The versatile front 7 defender has found a home for himself in New England, after being drafted in the 5th round in 2006 and bouncing around from the Saints to the Dolphins back to the Saints from 2006-2008.

Last year: NA

172. QB Tony Romo (Dallas)

Romo takes an unnecessary amount of heat. He’s coming off of a very strong season, completing 63.9% of his passes for an average of 7.16 YPA, 31 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, a QB rating of 96.7. For his career, he completes 64.6% of his passes for an average of 7.83 YPA, 208 touchdowns, and 101 interceptions. He was Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked quarterback last season, including 7th in passing grade. He’s graded out above average in 6 of 7 seasons since 2007, including 8th in 2007, 16th in 2009, 9th in 2010, 9th in 2011, and 10th in 2012. The concern with Romo isn’t a lack of clutch (whatever that means). It’s that he’s going into his age 34 season coming off of a significant back injury with his YPA declining in every season since 2011 (8.02 YPA, 7.57 YPA, 7.16 YPA) and his completion percentage declining in every season since 2010 (69.5%, 66.3%, 65.6%, 63.9%).

Last year: NA

173. WR Golden Tate (Seattle)

Golden Tate has never had a 1000 yard season, but he’s been stuck on a run heavy team in Seattle, since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2010. He caught 45 passes on 65 attempts (69.2%) for 688 yards and 7 touchdowns on 378 routes run (1.80 yards per route run) in 2012. In 2013, he caught 64 passes on 93 attempts (68.8%) for 898 yards and 5 touchdowns on 447 routes run (2.01 yards per route run). Tate will see plenty of single coverage opposite Calvin Johnson and could run 500-600 routes in a pass heavier offense. He won’t see any downgrade in terms of his quarterback’s passing ability going from Russell Wilson and Matt Stafford and he could easily have 1000 receiving yards.

Last year: NA

174. QB Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh)

Roethlisberger’s 2013 season was right in line with his career averages as he completed 64.2% of his passes for an average of 7.30 YPA, 28 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, a QB rating of 92.0. In his career, he completes 63.3% of his passes for an average of 7.85 YPA, 219 touchdowns, and 122 interceptions, a QB rating of 92.6. He was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked quarterback last season. He takes fewer shots downfield now under offensive coordinator Todd Haley, which has lowered his YPA, but he completes a higher percentage of his passes and has a better touchdown to interception ratio. Going into his age 32 season, he’s still capable of leading a team to the Super Bowl. One thing Roethlisberger did last season that was unusual is play all 16 games, something he had only done once in his career prior. He’s missed 17 games in 10 seasons and will probably miss a game or two with some sort of injury this season, as his playing style leads him to take a lot of hits.

Last year: 87

175. RB Alfred Morris (Washington)

Morris rushed for 1613 yards and 13 touchdowns on 335 carries as a 6th round rookie in 2012, an average of 4.81 YPC, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked running back in terms of rushing grade. In 2013, he rushed for 1275 yards and 7 touchdowns on 276 carries, an average of 4.62 YPC, and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked running back in rushing grade. That’s obviously not a bad season, but he wasn’t as good as he was as a rookie. The good news is that he should find more running space with a healthy Robert Griffin functioning as a dual option at quarterback. The bad news is that Jay Gruden is coming in as head coach and wants to open up the passing offense. Morris has caught 20 passes in 2 seasons and has graded out below average as a pass catcher in each of his two seasons in the league.

Last year: 56

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Top-200 NFL Players: 176-200 (2014)

This 8-part series counts down the top-200 players in the NFL. 200 might sounds like a lot, but with 53 players on 32 teams’ rosters, that’s 1696 players. Count guys on the practice squad, guys on the PUP or the IR, and guys who are free agents, but still on teams’ radar. That’s probably 2000 players. These guys are the top 10%. Positional value doesn’t matter because if it did, this list would be too quarterback heavy.

176. DT Malik Jackson (Denver)

Jackson doesn’t get a lot of recognition, even on the defending AFC Champions. The 2012 5th round pick didn’t do much as a rookie, playing 120 nondescript snaps. However, he played 601 snaps and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked 4-3 defensive tackle in 2013. He’s still a one year wonder, but he’s an obvious asset with the versatility play defensive end in base packages and defensive tackle in sub packages. The 6-5 284 pounder played a fair amount of defensive end in college at Tennessee and will continue being a significant asset on the defensive line for the Broncos, even if he isn’t “technically” a starter.

Last year: NR

177. WR Percy Harvin (Seattle)

The Seahawks clearly had big plans for Percy Harvin when they traded a 1st and 3rd round pick for him last off-season and gave him a 6-year, 67 million dollar deal. Those plans were derailed when Harvin hurt his hip and missed all but 20 regular season snaps. He made an impact in the post-season, but Harvin’s injury history is impossible to ignore. He’s missed 25 games in 5 seasons, including 22 games over the past 2 seasons. When on the field, he’s dynamic, averaging 2.45 yards per route run in his first 4 seasons in the league in Minnesota despite less than stellar quarterback play. That’s impressive even if he was being targeted on 28.75% of route run. He also adds value as a return man (115 kickoff returns for 3241 yards and 5 touchdowns) and a ball carrier (683 yards and 4 touchdowns on 107 carries). He just needs to stay healthy.

Last year: NR

178. TE Jordan Cameron (Cleveland)

Jordan Cameron broke out in his 3rd year in the league in 2013, after being drafted in the 4th round in 2011, catching 80 passes for 917 yards and 7 touchdowns. He played on one of the pass heaviest teams in the league, running 622 routes, giving him an average of 1.47 yards per route run. That’s pretty middle of the pack, but considering what he had to work with at quarterback, it’s impressive. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked tight end in pass catching grade, though he struggled mightily as a run blocker, grading out 11th worst at his position in that aspect.

Last year: NR

179. C Dominic Raiola (Detroit)

Raiola is going into his age 36 season, and he looked done as recently as 2010-2011, when he graded out below average on Pro Football Focus in both seasons, including 5th worst among centers in 2010. However, he’s put together back-to-back strong seasons over the past two seasons, grading out 13th and 2nd among centers in 2012 and 2013 respectively. At his age, he doesn’t have much time left, but he could easily have another strong season left in the tank.

Last year: NR

180. DT Damon Harrison (NY Jets)

The man affectionately known as Snacks, Damon Harrison is a massive 6-4 350 pounder. The 2012 undrafted free agent cut down on the snacks a little bit last season and moved to feasting on offensive linemen and running backs. He was easily Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked defensive tackle in terms of run stopping grade and only JJ Watt had a higher run stopping grade at any position. He doesn’t offer much as a pass rusher, with 1 sack and 9 hurries on 226 pass rush snaps, a 4.4% rate, grading out below average, but it didn’t matter that much. He was still Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked defensive tackle last season on 510 snaps and no one played fewer snaps and graded out higher. There might not be a better two-down player in the NFL. He’s still a one year wonder, playing just 22 snaps as an undrafted rookie in 2012, and his history of weight problems is concerning, but he could easily have another strong year against the run.

Last year: NR

181. DT Star Lotulelei (Carolina)

Star Lotulelei had a fantastic rookie year after the Panthers drafted him 14th overall in 2013, earning some Defensive Rookie of the Year consideration. He was Pro Football Focus’ 16th ranked defensive tackle. Lotulelei wasn’t that well-rounded, struggling as a pass rusher and excelling against the run. The 6-2 315 pounder might just be a pure two-down player (though an excellent one, grading out 5th overall against the run). That’s a concern because run stoppers are less valuable than pass rushers in the NFL. That being said, he was a first round pick just last year so he could easily become at least a decent pass rusher and allow himself to stay on the field in every situation. He’s not done developing, only turning 25 in December.

Last year: NR

182. DE Jason Pierre-Paul (NY Giants)

JPP didn’t miss that many games last season, missing 5, but he was a shell of his normal self with back and shoulder problems, grading out just about average on 583 snaps, grading out below average as a pass rusher and above average as a run stopper. Jason Pierre-Paul has 9 sacks over the past 2 seasons combined, after 16 sacks in 2011, but he’s only had one down year. In 2012, he had only 7 sacks, but he also had 4 hits and 45 hurries, giving him a solid 10.7% pass rush rate on 523 pass rush snaps. He was even better against the run and overall, grading out 3rd overall on Pro Football Focus among 4-3 defensive ends. That’s actually better than his 2011 breakout year, when he graded out 6th at his position. He wasn’t as good against the run and he only had a 9.7% pass rush rate, with 16 sacks, 14 hits, and 26 hurries on 580 pass rush snaps. JPP is expected to be 100% this season and, only going into his age 25 season, he has a very good chance to bounce back and be a top defensive end again.

Last year: 44

183. DE Charles Johnson (Carolina)

Charles Johnson signed a gargantuan 6-year, 76 million dollar deal with the Panthers following a breakout season in 2010 in which he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked 4-3 defensive end. That was his first season as a starter, so the Panthers were paying for a one-year wonder and it hasn’t quite paid off. That isn’t to say he’s been bad, as he’s been a strong pass rusher, grading out 18th, 2nd, and 11th in pure pass rushing grade in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. However, he’s graded out below average as a run stopper in all 3 seasons and has overall not proven himself to be the player he was in 2010.

Last year: 69

184. G TJ Lang (Green Bay)

TJ Lang had the best season of his career in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked guard. He’s inconsistent though. A 3-year starter with the versatility to play any position other than center if needed (but he’s best at guard), Lang graded out below average in 2012, but ranked 22nd in 2011. Last season was his first full year at right guard and that might just be the best spot for him, so he could easily have another strong year, but his history of inconsistency is worth mentioning.

Last year: NR

185. OT Anthony Collins (Tampa Bay)

Many fans might not have heard of Anthony Collins, but the NFL sure knows who he is. He’s been the Bengals’ swing tackle for years and he’s always shown well when given the chance, grading out above average on Pro Football Focus in limited action in every season since 2009. In 2013, he was given his biggest chance yet, with Andrew Whitworth moving to left guard in place of the injured Clint Boling and Anthony Collins taking over at left tackle. Collins played a career high 592 snaps and didn’t allow a sack or quarterback hit all season, finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 23rd ranked offensive tackle despite the limited action. He got a well-deserved 5-year, 30 million dollar deal from the Buccaneers this off-season to be their left tackle.

Last year: NR

186. WR Kendall Wright (Tennessee)

2012 1st round pick Kendall Wright broke out in his 2nd year in the league in 2013. Wright only averaged 11.5 yards per reception and only scored twice and in his career he only averages 10.8 yards per reception and only has 6 touchdowns, but he gobbles up underneath targets and dominates that part of the field. Wright caught 94 passes on 134 targets (70.1%) and totaled 1079 yards on 539 routes run, an average of 2.00 yards per route run, 21st among eligible wide receivers. He also had more than half of his yardage after the catch, as he totaled 583 yards after the catch and averaged 6.2 yards per catch after the catch. That was 10th at his position among eligible wide receivers. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked wide receiver and he could easily be better in his 3rd year in the league, a common breakout year for wide receivers. He can become a more complete receiver by catching more passes downfield.

Last year: NR

187. OT Zach Strief (New Orleans)

A late bloomer, Zach Strief has only been a starter for 3 years in his career and he’s already going into his age 31 season. He’s also missed 10 games in 3 seasons and struggled through injury in 12 games in 2012, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 52nd ranked offensive tackle out of 80 eligible. He’s also only a pure right tackle, which isn’t quite as valuable as someone who can play on the blindside. However, he’s been dominant in his other two seasons as a starter, grading out as Pro Football Focus 12th ranked offensive tackle (6th ranked right tackle) in 2011 and 9th ranked offensive tackle (1st ranked right tackle in 2013).

Last year: NR

188. G Justin Blalock (Atlanta)

Blalock was the only Falcons’ offensive lineman last season to make more than 10 starts and grade out above average, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 23rd ranked guard. This is nothing new for him as he’s made every start but 2 since his rookie year in 2007, including 100 straight dating back to 2007, and he’s graded out above average in each of his last 4 seasons, maxing out at 12th among guards in 2010.

Last year: NR

189. WR Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona)

Fitzgerald has gone under 1000 yards receiving in each of the last 2 seasons. His 71/798/4 line in 2012 was understandable because he had supremely terrible quarterback play, but even with better quarterback play, he only caught 82 passes for 954 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2013. That’s obviously still very solid, but this is the guy who averaged 94 catches for 1309 yards and 10 touchdowns per 16 games from 2005-2011, even though he never really had great quarterback play, except for those couple Warner years. Now in his 30s, going into his age 31 season, he’s simply not the same player any more. He’s still really good, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked wide receiver last season (though just 25th in pass catching grade), catching 63.6% of his passes for an average of 1.59 yards per route run, but he falls down this list.

Last year: 47

190. S Donte Whitner (Cleveland)

He is an inconsistent player who graded out slightly below average on Pro Football Focus in each season from 2007-2010 in Buffalo and who allowed 12 touchdowns in regular season and post-season combined in 2012 on a 49ers team that allowed just 26 total passing touchdowns in the regular season and post-season combined. However, he graded out 8th among safeties in 2011 and 6th among safeties in 2013. He seemed to fix his coverage problems last season, grading out 5th in that aspect, and we’ll see if that continues.

Last year: NR

191. MLB Brandon Spikes (Buffalo)

Brandon Spikes was Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked middle linebacker last season, but that’s a little misleading. That was fueled solely by his run play as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ first ranked middle linebacker in terms of run grade by a mile, but he ranked 38th out of 55 middle linebackers in terms of coverage grade. He also played only 694 snaps as a part-time two-down player. He’s a pure base package player in a league that’s devaluing pure base package players, though he’s an excellent one at that. This isn’t a new thing for him. In 2012, he graded out 9th among middle linebackers, including 1st as a run stopper, playing just 742 snaps. In 2011, he graded out 18th among middle linebackers, 19th in run grade, and played 364 snaps. In 2010, he graded out 9th among middle linebackers, 4th in run grade, and played 356 snaps. He also has a history of injury and issues with the coaching staff. All this being said, he is phenomenal at what he does.

Last year: NR

192. CB Brandon Boykin (Philadelphia)

Brandon Boykin is a 5-9 182 pounder who can only play the slot. However, the 2012 4th round pick was Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked cornerback last season on 635 snaps, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out higher. He was even better in pure coverage grade, grading out 2nd in that aspect. He also graded out above average on 526 snaps as a rookie. He’s played a combined 107 snaps not on the slot over the past 2 seasons combined and he’ll have to remain purely a slot cornerback this season, but he’s the best pure slot cornerback in the NFL.

Last year: NR

193. WR Eric Decker (NY Jets)

Eric Decker is going to get a massive downgrade at the quarterback position going from Peyton Manning to Geno Smith. The last time he played with a quarterback other than Peyton Manning, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 82nd ranked wide receiver out of 115 eligible and averaged just 1.28 yards per route run, 65th out of 95 eligible. That was in 2011 with the combination of Tim Tebow and Kyle Orton, which is comparable to what Decker will be dealing with in New York. That being said, it’s unfair to suggest that he’s not an improved player since 2011. While much of his increased production since then was due to the arrival of Peyton Manning, he’s still an improved player. He’s averaged 1.80 and 2.03 yards per route run over the past 2 seasons respectively, grading out 36th and 11th in those two seasons respectively among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus, peaking in his contract year. The 2010 3rd round pick not a true coverage changing #1 receiver, he’s not overly explosive, and he drops too many passes (29 drops compared to 216 catches over the past 3 seasons). However, he is going to be easily the Jets’ best wide receiver this season and he’s incredibly reliable around the goal line (32 touchdowns in the last 3 seasons, including 8 even in 2011).

Last year: 186

194. WR Anquan Boldin (San Francisco)

The 49ers’ leading receiver last season was Anquan Boldin, who caught 85 passes for 1179 yards and 7 touchdowns on 123 targets (69.1%) and 462 routes run, an average of 2.55 yards per route run. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked wide receiver overall last season. The issue is he’s going into his age 34 season. There’s still a good chance he doesn’t show serious decline this season, in spite of that. He didn’t show any decline last season. In fact, he had one of the best seasons of his career, going above 1000 yards for the first time since 2009. He also doesn’t have a significant injury history and has only missed 4 games over the past 5 seasons combined. On top of that, he’s never been someone reliant on his athleticism, dominating with his ability to make contested catches first and foremost, and that’s not something that’s going to go away with age as fast as athleticism might. He won’t be as good as last season though.

Last year: NR

195. C Travis Frederick (Dallas)

Frederick was a surprise pick as the 31st overall pick in 2013, but he impressed as a rookie, grading out 7th at his position. He struggled in pass protection, grading out 32nd out of 35 eligible in that aspect, which is unfortunate considering pass protection is more important than run blocking, but he was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked run blocking center and he could be even better in his 2nd year in the league in 2014.

Last year: NR

196. TE Marcedes Lewis (Jacksonville)

Lewis’ raw pass catching totals don’t seem that good (206 catches for 2577 yards and 20 touchdowns since 2009 in 73 games), but he’s averaged 1.58 yards per route run since 2009, including 1.37 yards per route run last season. He’s limited by the way the Jaguars utilize his skill set limits his pass catching production (in addition to poor quarterback play. Since 2009, he has 1 pass block snap for every 3.53 routes he runs, which means he pass blocks more often than almost any tight end. The Jaguars also very rarely line him up off the line. Since 2009, only 31.7% of his routes run have come on the slot, which means he lines up off line as infrequently as almost any tight end in the game. He’s graded out above average every season since 2009 and he was a top-10 tight end in every season from 2009-2012, maxing out at #2 overall in 2010. Much of that is run blocking grade for the punishing 6-6 261 pounder, but he graded out above average as a pass catcher in 3 of those 4 seasons. He didn’t do so last season and he only graded out slightly above average overall and also missed 5 games with injury. That’s a concern as he heads into his age 30 season. However, he should remain an asset for them as long as he stays on the field and the 2006 1st round pick only missed a combined 3 games from 2006-2012.

Last year: NR

197. WR Randall Cobb (Green Bay)

A 2011 2nd round pick, Cobb caught 25 passes on 31 targets (80.6%) for 375 yards and a touchdown on 174 routes run as a rookie, an average of 2.16 yards per route run. He then had a breakout year in 2012, catching 80 passes on 102 targets (78.4%) for 954 yards and 8 touchdowns on 422 routes run, an average of 2.26 yards per route run. He was Pro Football Focus’ #11 ranked wide receiver that season. He looked on his way to a similar season in 2013, but injuries derailed that, limiting him to 6 games. He caught 31 passes on 40 targets (77.5%) for 433 yards and 4 touchdowns on 209 routes run, an average of 2.07 yards per route run. Going into his contract year this year, without much of an injury history, he should have another year similar to 2012, but he is still a one year wonder.

Last year: 141

198. RB DeMarco Murray (Dallas)

DeMarco Murray had the best season of his career in 2013, rushing for 1121 yards and 9 touchdowns on 217 attempts, an average of 5.17 YPC. He also added 53 catches for 350 yards and a touchdown through the air. He was Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked running back overall and had the 7th highest elusive rating last season with 53 broken tackles on 270 touches and 2.71 yards per carry after contact. I’m skeptical whether or not he can repeat that kind of season, given his injury history. He’s been banged up dating back to college, even missing 2 games last season, and missing a combined 11 games in 3 seasons in the league. He’s never played more than 14 games in a season and the 270 touches he had last season blew his previous career high of 196 out of the water.

Last year: NR

199. OT Anthony Castonzo (Indianapolis)

Anthony Castonzo essentially played every snap at left tackle last season, 1088 out of 1093 possible. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 27th ranked offensive tackle, well above average.He was a 2011 1st round pick and is now going into his 4th year in the league. The Colts picked up his 5th year option for 2015 this off-season. He’s graded out above average in all 3 years he’s been in the league, improved every year, and has missed a combined 5 snaps over the past 2 seasons combined.

Last year: NR

200. TE Jordan Reed (Washington)

Reed, a 3rd round rookie last season, missed 7 games with concussions, but still graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked tight end last season despite playing just 384 snaps. He was very well-rounded too, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked pass catching tight end and 13th ranked run blocking tight end. Reed caught 45 passes on 60 attempts (75.0%) for 499 yards and 4 touchdowns on 228 routes run, an average of 2.19 yards per route run, 3rd in the NFL. If he stays healthy, he could have a breakout year in 2014.

Last year: NR

Customizable 2014 Fantasy Football Rankings

Download here: fantasy-football-2014

Instructions:

1. Enable editing on the excel sheet.

2. Input your league scoring system into the scoring settings tab (the first tab). This tab is defaulted to standard ESPN scoring settings.

3. If using non-standard scoring, go to the QB, RB, WR, and TE tabs and sort the QB and RB tabs by column H, the WR tab by column G and the TE tab by column F. Then go to the rankings tab and sort the entire thing by column C. These are your customized rankings.

4. If you disagree with any of my statistical projections on the QB, RB, WR, or TE tab, you can change them and then re-sort the rankings tab to get new rankings.

5. Unfortunately, this is not customizable for leagues with non-standard roster types (two QB, two TE, etc.). This may be coming next season.

6. No defenses or kickers are ranked. Always draft a defense in the 2nd to last round and play the matchups weekly (Philadelphia is a good draft pick because they are playing Jacksonville week 1). As for kickers, never draft one before the final round.

St. Louis Rams Fantasy Football Projections 2014

QB Sam Bradford (St. Louis)

Bradford had shown signs of becoming the long-term answer at quarterback for the Rams last season. Bradford completed 60.7% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in 2013. That TD:INT ratio looks pretty good, but I put more stock in completion percentages and YPAs because they show you what happens on a greater percentage of snaps. Even if Bradford has a breakout season, he won’t throw an interception on just 1.5% of throws like he did last season.

Bradford set a career high in completion percentage and had the 2nd best YPA of his career, but neither 60.7% nor 6.44 YPA is really that impressive. On top of that, Bradford went down with a torn ACL after 7 games and missed the rest of the season. We’ve seen better quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Robert Griffin, Carson Palmer) all struggle in their first season back from that type of injury so it doesn’t really bode well for his chances. He’s now has a torn ACL, a serious knee injury, and a serious shoulder injury on his resume in the last 5 seasons, dating back to his final season at Oklahoma.

3500 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 80 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (208 pts standard)

RB Zac Stacy (St. Louis)

Zac Stacy only averaged 3.89 yards per carry (973 yards and 7 touchdowns on 250 carries) last season, including just 3.59 yards per carry in the 2nd half of the season (625 yards and 7 touchdowns on 174 carries). Stacy rushed for 2.45 yards per carry after contact, as the 5-8 216 pounder ran with great power and strength, but he didn’t average a high YPC overall because he doesn’t have great burst or ability to turn into a 2nd gear. There’s a reason he fell to the 5th round in the 2013 NFL Draft. The Rams drafted Tre Mason in the 3rd round and he’ll be his primary backup. Mason could cut into Stacy’s carries. Stacy carried the ball 249 times in his 12 starts (an average of 20.75 carries per game, 332 carries over 16 games). He’ll be lucky if he gets to 280 carries this season. There are better RB2s.

260 carries for 1070 yards, 8 total touchdowns, 28 catches for 170 yards (172 pts standard)

WR Tavon Austin (St. Louis)

The 8th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Tavon Austin only caught 40 passes for 415 yards and 4 touchdowns on 62 attempts (61.5%) on 305 routes run, an average of 1.37 yards per route run as a rookie. He contributed as a runner (9 carries for 151 yards and a touchdown) and a return man (18 kickoff returns for 398 yards and 33 punt returns for 280 yards and a touchdown), but not as a pass catcher. That’s led to a lot of people calling him a bust, but I think that’s really premature.

Rookie wide receivers rarely do anything. Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks and they had 58/780/8 and 48/756/4 respectively as rookies. Austin could be a lot better in his 2nd year in the league. He finished the season out well, catching 9 passes for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns in his final 4 games. That’s 844 yards and 8 scores over a 16-game season. There’s upside with him in the late rounds.

60 catches for 740 yards and 5 touchdowns, 100 rushing yards (114 pts standard)

WR Kenny Britt (St. Louis)

Kenny Britt is one of the real fantasy wild cards this season. The 2009 1st round pick looked on his way to a promising career in 2010 and 2011. After averaging 1.86 yards per route run as a rookie in 2009, Britt averaged an absurd 3.07 yards per route run in 2010 and 2011, catching a combined 59 passes for 1064 yards and 12 touchdowns on a combined 347 routes run. However, a torn ACL suffered 3 games into 2011 derailed his career big-time. As good as he was in 2010 and 2011, he only played a combined 15 games thanks to multiple injuries, including that torn ACL. He averaged just 1.49 yards per route run in 2012.

In 2013, his final year in Tennessee, he was a train wreck. He only caught a third of his 33 targets, with 11 catches for 96 yards and he dropped 7 passes. He averaged just 0.48 yards per route run on 201 routes run. He was the definition of awful and also got into it with his coaches, which is why he had to settle for a minimum deal in free agency. He’s reportedly dominating off-season practices though, which is why he’s listed as a starter. I’m still skeptical, but he’s only going into his age 26 season, we know he has insane natural talent, and he has every reason to give 110%.

40 catches for 600 yards and 4 touchdowns (84 pts standard)

TE Jared Cook (St. Louis)

The Rams’ leading receiver in 2013 was tight end Jared Cook, who caught 51 passes for 671 yards and 5 touchdowns. Still, he didn’t really live up to the insane 5-year, 35.11 million dollar deal he got last off-season. That deal was undeserved as he’s not much of a run blocker and he’s maxed out at 49 catches for 759 yards and 3 touchdowns. My guess is either he or Austin leads this team in receiving yards, but Austin has more upside. Cook is a low end TE1 at best.

54 catches for 700 yards and 5 touchdowns (100 pts standard)

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Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Football Projections 2014

QB Carson Palmer (Arizona)

Palmer completed 63.3% of his passes last season for an average of 7.47 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions, a solid QB rating of 83.9. However, he’s going into his age 35 season and could hit a wall in terms of his abilities at any time at his age. The Cardinals drafted Logan Thomas in the 4th round for that reason. He’s a weak QB2.

4000 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 21 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (207 pts standard)

RB Andre Ellington (Arizona)

6th round rookie Andre Ellington rushed for 652 yards and 3 touchdowns on 118 carries in 2013, an average of 5.52 yards per carry. He also added 39 catches for 371 yards and a touchdown through the air. However, he didn’t see that many touches, even though lead back Rashard Mendenhall averaged just 3.17 yards per carry. Mendenhall is now gone so Ellington will become the lead back. The Cardinals seem to have finally realized what they have with him as they’ve been talking him up as a feature back all off-season.

Ellington is only 5-9 199 and the Cardinals were concerned about his ability to carry a load, which could have some merits, but he was definitely deserving of a bigger role. The 2013 6th round pick probably won’t average 5.52 yards per carry again this season, in a bigger role, but he should still average a high YPC and he could approach 300 touches as a three down back. The Cardinals have no real competition for him with only Jonathan Dwyer and Stepfan Taylor behind him on the depth chart.

240 carries for 1130 yards, 7 total touchdowns, 50 catches for 450 yards (200 pts standard)

WR Michael Floyd (Arizona)

Floyd broke out in his 2nd year in the league in 2013, as the 13th overall pick in 2012 caught 65 passes for 1041 yards and 5 touchdowns on 107 targets (60.7%) and 569 routes run, an average of 1.83 yards per route run. He’s still a one year wonder as an NFL player, after struggling as a rookie, but rookie receivers tend to struggle anyway and he’s got a ton of talent. He could be even better in his 3rd year in the league.

68 catches for 1080 yards and 8 touchdowns (156 pts standard)

WR Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona)

While Floyd’s career is on the up, Larry Fitzgerald’s career is on the way down, as he heads into his age 31 season. Fitzgerald has gone under 1000 yards receiving in each of the last 2 seasons. His 71/798/4 line in 2012 was understandable because he had supremely terrible quarterback play, but even with better quarterback play, he only caught 82 passes for 954 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2013. That’s obviously still very solid, but this is the guy who averaged 94 catches for 1309 yards and 10 touchdowns per 16 games from 2005-2011, even though he never really had great quarterback play, except for those couple Warner years. Now in his 30s, he’s simply not the same player any more.

75 catches for 900 yards and 7 touchdowns (132 pts standard)

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Seattle Seahawks Fantasy Football Projections 2014

QB Russell Wilson (Seattle)

Russell Wilson, a 2012 3rd round pick, has proven to be one of the greatest draft steals in NFL history. Obviously he got a lot of help from his supporting cast en route to winning the Super Bowl in his 2nd season in the league, but he did a lot of it on his own, completing 63.6% of his passes for an average of 8.09 YPA, 52 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions in 2 seasons in the league (100.6 QB rating). He’s also added 1028 yards and 5 touchdowns rushing on 190 carries (5.41 YPC) in 2 seasons. He’s locked in as a QB1 again.

3200 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 500 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns (282 pts standard)

RB Marshawn Lynch (Seattle)

Lynch, a former first round pick run out of Buffalo, has completely turned around his career over the past 3 seasons in Seattle, rushing for 4051 yards and 35 touchdowns on 901 carries (4.50 yards per carry) and adding 87 catches for 724 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air. However, there’s some reason for concern. Lynch is going into his age 28 season with 1753 career carries. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. And after players have their drop off, they average just 169 carries per season at 3.52 yards per carry and just 5 touchdowns, so they’re really a non-factor as a back. Lynch is 52nd all-time with 7389 rushing yards.

He’s not at the level where the Seahawks should be worried that his abilities completely fall off a cliff, but age is starting to become a factor. He could show some decline this season, especially since he’s had 988 regular season touches over the past 3 regular seasons combined. Last season, he had 403 touches including post-season, most in the NFL. That’s especially concerning considering his violent running style. On top of that, Lynch missed a significant amount of off-season practices with a holdout, which won’t help him.

270 carries for 1160 yards, 10 total touchdowns, 30 catches for 220 yards (198 pts standard)

RB Christine Michael (Seattle)

The good news is the Seahawks have Christine Michael waiting in the wings behind him. The 2013 2nd round pick didn’t do much as a rookie, with 18 carries for 79 yards and just 26 snaps played, but he’s drawn rave reviews this off-season going into his 2nd year in the league. He’ll siphon some carries off from Lynch as they try to keep the veteran fresh and take over as the lead back in 2015 and beyond. Given the success in running backs drafted outside of the first round over the past few years, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he turned into an above average starter long-term. He’s worth a late round pick in re-draft leagues, especially for Lynch owners, and he’s definitely worth your attention in dynasty and keeper leagues.

100 carries for 460 yards, 3 total touchdowns, 10 catches for 90 yards (73 pts standard)

WR Percy Harvin (Seattle)

The Seahawks acquired Percy Harvin from the Vikings for a 1st and 3rd round pick last off-season, but he only played 20 snaps thanks to injury. Harvin was dominant in Minnesota, averaging 2.45 yards per route run in his first 4 seasons in the league despite less than stellar quarterback play. He also adds value as a ball carrier (683 yards and 4 touchdowns on 107 carries).

However, he’s missed 25 games in 5 seasons, including 22 games over the past 2 seasons. If he’s on the field, he should average over 2 yards per route run (while adding value as a runner and a return man), even if he doesn’t get targeted as frequently as he did in Minnesota (targeted on 28.75% of routes run), but his statistical production will be limited by how run heavy the offense is and injuries are still an obvious concern. He’s never had more than 1000 yards or 390 routes run in a season and I don’t expect either of those things to change this season.

60 catches for 780 yards and 6 touchdowns, 150 rushing yards (129 pts standard)

WR Doug Baldwin (Seattle)

Doug Baldwin hasn’t been incredibly productive in his career thus far, as the 2011 undrafted free agent has posted lines of 51/788/4 and 50/778/5 in 2011 and 2013 respectively, with a 29/366/3 line in 2012 in between. However, much of that is because of much of a run heavy team the Seahawks are. He averaged 1.83 yards per route run (on 425 routes run) in 2013 and he’s averaged 1.91 yards per route run in his career. He’s only a low upside late round pick though, even with Golden Tate and Sidney Rice gone. He’s a better real football player than fantasy football player.

52 catches for 750 yards and 5 touchdowns (105 pts standard)

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San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Football Projections 2014

QB Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco)

In the 8 games Kaepernick played with Michael Crabtree last season, Kaepernick completed 59.2% of his passes for an average of 7.78 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in those 8 games, numbers more reminiscent of 2012. That’s as opposed to 56.7% completion, 7.41 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in their other 11 games. Now he has a full season of Michael Crabtree healthy, to go with Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis, and Steve Johnson. The 49ers’ receivers are now more talented than their running backs and with NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, and Glenn Dorsey all expected to miss significant time with injury on defense, their defense won’t be as good, which will force them to pass more often. There’s a lot of potential here.

3750 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 400 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns (302 pts standard)

RB Frank Gore (San Francisco)

Frank Gore is going into his age 31 season with 2187 career touches. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade, the average one has his last 1000-yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. And after players have their drop off, they average just 169 carries per season at 3.52 yards per carry and just 5 touchdowns, so they’re really a non-factor as a back. Gore is “only” 29th all-time with 9,967 rushing yards and he could easily see his abilities completely fall off of a cliff this season or suffer some sort of significant injury.

He already showed signs of decline last season, rushing for 1128 yards and 9 touchdowns on 276 carries, an average of just 4.09 yards per carry. That’s the worst YPC season of his career. He was even worse in the 2nd half of the season, averaging 3.61 yards per carry on 164 carries in his final 10 games, going over 4 yards per carry in just 3 games and totaling 3 touchdowns. He also doesn’t do much as a pass catcher anymore, with 61 catches for 489 yards and a touchdown over the past 3 seasons combined.

210 carries for 840 yards, 7 total touchdowns, 15 catches for 100 yards (136 pts standard)

RB Carlos Hyde (San Francisco)

Carlos Hyde, a 2nd round rookie, will be Gore’s primary backup and has a good chance of being their lead back long-term. He could end up having a significant role as a rookie if Gore gets hurt or declines significantly this season. That’s certainly not unlikely, so Hyde is worth a late round flier, especially for owners who ended up with Gore.

120 carries for 520 yards, 5 total touchdowns, 18 catches for 140 yards (96 pts standard)

WR Michael Crabtree (San Francisco)

Down the stretch in 2012, Crabtree looked on his way to finally becoming the top receiver the 49ers envisioned he’d become when they drafted him 10th overall in 2009. After Kaepernick took over as the starter full time in week 11, Crabtree caught 61 passes for 880 yards and 8 touchdowns in 10 games, including playoffs. That’s 98 catches for 1408 yards and 13 touchdowns over 16 games. The issue is he tore his Achilles in May of 2013, which caused him to miss 11 games in 2013 and limited him upon his return.

Last season, he caught 34 passes for 487 yards and a touchdown in 8 games (including playoffs), 68 passes for 974 yards and 2 touchdowns over 16 games, which is nowhere near as good as he was down the stretch in 2012, but incredibly impressive considering he was just 6-8 months removed from that injury. Assuming he’s healthy, and he should be as he’ll be 16+ months removed from his injury, Crabtree could surpass his career best line of 85/1105/9 from 2012, when he was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked wide receiver, catching 72.0% of targets for an average of 2.55 yards per route run. The 49ers will pass more often this season with Frank Gore aging and their defense taking big hits this off-season and Crabtree should be Kaepernick’s #1 guy.

84 catches for 1160 yards and 9 touchdowns (170 pts standard)

WR Anquan Boldin (San Francisco)

The 49ers’ leading receiver last season in Crabtree’s absence was Anquan Boldin, who caught 85 passes for 1179 yards and 7 touchdowns on 123 targets (69.1%) and 462 routes run, an average of 2.55 yards per route run. Unlike Davis, he didn’t have his production affected by Crabtree’s return. In fact, he was even more productive with Crabtree in the lineup, as he caught 49 passes for 682 yards and 3 touchdowns in the 8 games that Crabtree played, as opposed to 52 passes for 724 yards and 5 touchdowns in the other 11 games.

The issue is he’s going into his age 34 season. That being said, he didn’t show any decline last season. In fact, he had one of the best seasons of his career, going above 1000 yards for the first time since 2009. He also doesn’t have a significant injury history and has only missed 4 games over the past 5 seasons combined. On top of that, he’s never been someone reliant on his athleticism, dominating with his ability to make contested catches first and foremost, and that’s not something that’s going to go away with age as fast as athleticism might. He won’t be as good as last season though. He could also see fewer targets just because Crabtree is now 100%. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he finished with a receiving yards total between 837 and 921, like he did in every season from 2010-2012.

68 catches for 910 yards and 7 touchdowns (133 pts standard)

TE Vernon Davis (San Francisco)

One player that Crabtree’s return will hurt is tight end Vernon Davis. When Crabtree is in the lineup, Kaepernick tends to ignore Vernon Davis. In 18 games with Crabtree in the lineup and Kaepernick under center, including playoffs, Davis has 43 catches for 679 yards and 8 touchdowns and he has 38 catches for 623 yards and 9 touchdowns in the other 10 games he’s played with Kaepernick under center. The 49ers haven’t passed enough for both Crabtree and Davis to put up big numbers. The good news is the 49ers might open it up more this season, with their defense taking big hits this off-season and their pass catchers now being better than their running backs, which would get Davis more targets. Don’t expect huge things from him though.

48 catches for 700 yards and 7 touchdowns (112 pts standard)

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Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Football Projections 2014

RB Adrian Peterson (Minnesota)

Peterson didn’t repeat the 2000 rushing yard season he had in 2012, but he still impressed, rushing for 1266 yards and 10 touchdowns on 279 carries, an average of 4.54 YPC. In his career, he’s rushed for 10,115 yards (already 27th all-time) and 86 touchdowns on 2033 carries, an average of 4.98 YPC. There is minor concern with his age as he goes into his age 29 season with 2033 career carries and he’s not the pass catcher that either Jamaal Charles or LeSean McCoy is, but he’s locked in as a top-3 running back.

310 carries for 1460 yards and 12 touchdowns, 32 catches for 250 yards (243 pts standard)

WR Greg Jennings (Minnesota)

Jennings was dominant in Green Bay from 2007-2011, averaging 2.12 yards per route run over that stretch (5532 yards on 2604 routes). However, he missed 3 games with injury in 2011 and then another 8 in 2012 and that seemed to sap his abilities. He averaged just 1.28 yards per route run in 2012 and, though he was healthier last year, he averaged just 1.62 yards per route run. Going into his age 31 season, there isn’t a lot of upside here.

61 catches for 760 yards and 4 touchdowns (100 pts standard)

WR Cordarelle Patterson (Minnesota)

The 29th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Patterson flashed his incredible athleticism, rushing for 158 yards and 3 touchdowns on 12 carries and returning 43 kickoffs for 1393 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also averaged 6.4 yards per catch after the catch and broke 10 tackles on 45 catches, but he showed serious issues with route running, catching just 10 passes farther than 10 yards downfield and just 3 passes farther than 20 yards downfield. He was limited primarily to short routes and screens and also dropped 5 passes. He caught 45 passes on 72 targets (62.5%) for 469 yards and 4 touchdowns on 292 routes run (1.61 yards per route run). He’s expected to have a bigger role in his 2nd year in the league and he has the natural ability to have a breakout year, but he’s only going into his age 23 season so there should be no surprises if he continues to be raw.

56 catches for 720 yards and 5 touchdowns, 120 rushing yards (114 pts standard)

TE Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota)

Kyle Rudolph only averaged 1.11 yards per route run in his first 2 seasons in the league, as the big bodied tight end was used primarily as a blocker and ran just 30.1% of his routes off of the line of scrimmage.  In 2013, he looked on his way to a much better receiving year, as he averaged 1.34 yards per route run, running about 40.3% of his routes from off the line. Unfortunately, he went down for the season with a foot injury after 8 games. However, now he returns for his contract year and tight end guru Norv Turner is coming in. Rudolph has slimmed down to 6-6 260 from 275 and will be used more as a pass catcher and line up all over the formation in passing situations, much like Turner did with Antonio Gates in San Diego and Jordan Cameron in Cleveland. It wouldn’t be ridiculous to expect him to average 1.50 yards per route run (especially with better quarterback play) and for him to be 2nd on the team in receiving.

58 catches for 720 yards and 6 touchdowns (108 pts standard)

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Chicago Bears Fantasy Football Projections 2014

QB Jay Cutler (Chicago)

Last season, in his first season under Marc Trestman, Jay Cutler set a career high in QB rating, completing 63.1% of his passes for an average of 7.38 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, a QB rating of 89.2, significantly better than his career average of 84.6. He was even better before suffering an ankle injury week 7, completing 65.9% of his passes for an average of 7.51 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. The issue is he hasn’t played a full season in 2009. If I had to guess, Cutler will have worse numbers than the combined 4450 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions Bear quarterbacks (Cutler and Josh McCown) threw last season.

4100 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 180 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (280 pts standard)

RB Matt Forte (Chicago)

Last season Forte was the definition of a three-down back, leading the position in snaps played with 940, 50 snaps more than any other running back in the NFL. It’s rare to find a running back who is well-rounded enough to stay on the field for every passing down and he was a big part of their passing game last season. He rushed for 1339 yards and 9 touchdowns on 289 carries, 4.63 YPC. He also caught 74 passes for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns. If he doesn’t get injured or decline, he should have another strong season, but there’s a good chance he does get injured or decline. He’s going into his age 29 season with 1892 career touches in 6 seasons so it’s starting to become a concern.

270 carries for 1190 yards, 10 total touchdowns, 65 catches for 540 yards (233 pts standard)

WR Brandon Marshall (Chicago)

Marshall has had some issues with teammates and off-the-field, but on-the-field, he’s been as steady as they come, with 7 straight 1000 yard seasons in which he’s missed a combined 4 games. As a result, he’s already 55th all-time in receiving yards with 9050. If I had to guess over/under last year’s 100 catches for 1295 yards and 12 touchdowns, I’d guess under because I don’t expect the Bears to have as good quarterback play this season, with McCown gone, but he’s still a low end WR1.

90 catches for 1220 yards and 9 touchdowns (176 pts standard)

WR Alshon Jeffery (Chicago)

Jeffery caught 89 passes for 140 targets (63.6%) for 1421 yards on 601 routes run, an average of 2.36 yards per route run. He isn’t as proven as Marshall and he didn’t draw as much coverage as Marshall did last season, but he was more productive than him in the passing game last season. He also added 106 yards on the ground. Going into his 3rd year in the league, Jeffery could easily be just as, if not more productive next season.

82 catches for 1240 yards and 9 touchdowns, 80 rushing yards (186 pts standard)

TE Martellus Bennett (Chicago)

A talented backup in Dallas, dominant as a run blocker, but working sparingly in the passing game behind Jason Witten, Bennett, a 2009 2nd round pick, has broken out as a starter over the past 2 seasons, averaging 60 catches for 693 yards and 5 touchdowns. He should post similar numbers as a low-end TE1 again this season.

59 catches for 710 yards and 5 touchdowns (101 pts standard)

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Detroit Lions Fantasy Football Projections 2014

QB Matt Stafford (Detroit)

Stafford, the first overall pick in 2009, struggled in his first 2 years in the NFL, missing 19 games and completing 54.5% of his passes for an average of 5.92 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions. However, he’s played all 48 games over the past 3 seasons, completing 60.6% of his passes for an average of 7.24 YPA, 90 touchdowns, and 52 interceptions. He’s also been better than his numbers, as he had 46 passes dropped in 2011 (most in the NFL), 49 passes dropped in 2012 (2nd most in the NFL), and 59 passes dropped in 2013 (most in the NFL). Now he gets Golden Tate and Eric Ebron added into the mix, which turns their receiving corps from a weakness into a strength. He’s an underrated fantasy asset.

4725 passing yards, 33 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (305 pts standard)

RB Reggie Bush (Detroit)

The Lions are planning on scaling back Bush’s role as a runner, as new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi comes over from the Sean Payton coaching tree in New Orleans and plans to use Bush as they did with Darren Sproles in New Orleans. Sproles caught an average of 77 passes over the past 3 seasons. Reggie Bush has caught an average of 44 over the past 3 seasons and could catch 60 passes this season. At the same time, he could see his carries drop down from 223 to the 140-160 range, as he goes into his age 29 season.

160 carries for 720 yards, 4 total touchdowns, 60 catches for 540 yards (150 pts standard)

RB Joique Bell (Detroit)

Any loss in carries by Bush will be the benefit of Joique Bell, which Bush has said publicly he is fine with. The Lions have been a pass happy, 3-wide receiver team over the past 3 seasons, averaging 680 pass attempts over the past 3 seasons. Now they will be more of a traditional offense. They used their first round pick on Eric Ebron, which means they’ll use more two-tight end sets (though they obviously still have the ability to throw out of two-tight end sets). They signed a traditional fullback in Jed Collins, who comes with Lombardi over New Orleans. They also gave a 3-year, 9.3 million dollar extension to restricted free agent Joique Bell, who figures to lead the team in carries in their new more traditional offense. The 5-11 220 pounder is their best traditional runner.

Bell doesn’t have as many breakaway runs as Bush, but he had 65 first downs on 219 touches last season, while Bush had 68 first downs on 277 touches. The Lions could easily be getting a steal with that 3-year deal. Over the past 2 seasons, Bell has been one of the more important backup running backs in the NFL. Last season, he played 562 snaps, 23rd most in the NFL among running backs. In the past 2 seasons, he’s averaged 4.29 yards per carry, while serving as a valuable goal line back (11 touchdowns) and receiver out of the backfield (105 catches).

200 carries for 860 yards, 8 total touchdowns, 60 catches for 500 yards (184 pts standard)

WR Calvin Johnson (Detroit)

Johnson had a “down year” in 2013 with 84 catches for 1492 yards and 12 touchdowns, his lowest catch and yardage totals since 2010. That was really only because he missed 2 games with injury (after playing all 16 games in the previous 2 seasons). Last season was actually the best season of Johnson’s career in terms of yards per route run, as he averaged 2.72 yards per route run. He’s averaged 2.55 yards per route run over the past 3 seasons since Stafford broke out as a starter. He’s the #1 wide receiver in fantasy football and real football.

95 catches for 1650 yards and 14 touchdowns (249 pts standard)

WR Golden Tate (Detroit)

The Lions signed Golden Tate to a 5-year, 31 million dollar deal with 13.25 million guaranteed this off-season. Golden Tate has never had a 1000 yard season, but he’s been stuck on a run heavy team in Seattle, since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2010. He caught 45 passes on 65 attempts (69.2%) for 688 yards and 7 touchdowns on 378 routes run (1.80 yards per route run) in 2012. In 2013, he caught 64 passes on 93 attempts (68.8%) for 898 yards and 5 touchdowns on 447 routes run (2.01 yards per route run). Tate will see plenty of single coverage opposite Calvin Johnson and could run 500-600 routes in a pass heavier offense. He won’t see any downgrade in terms of his quarterback’s passing ability going from Russell Wilson and Matt Stafford and he could easily have 1000 receiving yards.

74 catches for 1020 yards and 8 touchdowns (150 pts standard)

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