Month: March 2015

Cleveland Browns sign WR Brian Hartline

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Browns, Uncategorized

Hartline was one of the worst wide receivers in the NFL in 2014, which led to his release from the Dolphins, a move that saved Miami 5.95 million in cash and 3.15 million on the cap. Hartline played all 16 games, but caught just 39 passes in 2014. He caught just 39 passes for 474 yards and 2 touchdowns on 62 attempts (62.9%) and 490 routes run, an average of 0.99 yards per route run. He was also Pro Football Focus’ 103rd ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible.

However, he graded out above average in both 2012 and 2013, putting up 1000+ yard seasons in both of those years. Only going into his age 29 season, Hartline has a good chance to bounce back in 2015. He’s not that athletic, but he’s big, sure handed, and a good route runner. The Browns are paying just 6 million over 2 years with just 1.5 million guaranteed, which isn’t very much money. He could prove to be a nice buy low signing for a team with a big need at wide receiver.

Grade: A

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San Diego Chargers sign G Orlando Franklin

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chargers, Uncategorized

Two off-seasons ago, the Broncos stole one of the Chargers’ offensive linemen, signing Louis Vasquez to a 4-year, 23.5 million dollar deal with 13 million guaranteed. That worked out well. This off-season, the Chargers return the favor by signing ex-Bronco Orlando Franklin to a 5-year, 36.5 million dollar deal with 20 million guaranteed. Like the Vasquez deal, it’s a very solid value and will really help this team, especially given how bad their offensive line has been in recent years. Franklin will probably start at left guard in San Diego, where he played in Denver last season, but he also has experience at right tackle and could end up there in the future if DJ Fluker continues to struggle in pass protection. That versatility definitely is part of his value.

Franklin isn’t just versatile. He’s also good. Orlando Franklin has started 63 games since the Broncos drafted him in the 2nd round in 2011, 47 at right tackle from 2011-2013 and 16 at left guard last season. He’s graded out above average in each of the last 3 seasons, 12th among offensive tackles in 2012, 17th among offensive tackles in 2013, and 13th among guards in 2014. I think Franklin is a better overall player than Mike Iupati, who got 40 million over 5 years from the Cardinals, so this is definitely a good deal.

Grade: A-

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Washington Redskins sign DE Stephen Paea

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, Uncategorized

Paea was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked defensive tackle in 2014, but he was a one-year wonder as the 2011 2nd round pick graded out below average in each of his first 3 seasons in the NFL from 2011-2013. That being said, this deal is an appropriate value for him, as it pays him just 21 million over 4 years, though with 15 million guaranteed. If Paea regresses in 2015 and beyond, it’s not a huge risk and if he keeps up his strong play from 2014, he’d be one of the more underpaid players in the NFL. He also fills an obvious need for the Redskins on their defensive line. My only concern with this deal (aside from the large percentage of this deal that’s guaranteed) is that Washington runs a 3-4 defense and Paea, a 6-1 300 pound one-gap penetrator, wouldn’t seem to be a natural fit for the scheme. Paea’s former team, the Bears, is switching to a 3-4 this off-season and didn’t have much interest in bringing him back.

Grade: A-

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Oakland Raiders sign C Rodney Hudson

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Raiders, Uncategorized

The Raiders made Rodney Hudson the highest paid center in the NFL with this move, giving him 44.5 million over 5 years. Last off-season, Alex Mack and Maurkice Pouncey got 42 and 44 million respectively over the same time period in then record breaking deals. Hudson is a good center, but he’s not worth this kind of money. He’s not the best center in the NFL. He was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked center last year, but he’s a one-year wonder in terms of showing that level of play.

Hudson flashed on 136 snaps in various positions as a 2nd round rookie in 2011, before moving to center full-time in 2012. However, Hudson played just 3 games that year before going down for the season, though he showed well when healthy. Since then, he’s made all 32 starts over the past 2 seasons, grading out 17th among centers in 2013 and 3rd in 2014. He’s a solid player and one of the better centers in the game, but this is an overpay, even for a team like the Raiders with tons of money to spend and not a lot of talent.

Grade: C+

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New England Patriots re-sign S Devin McCourty

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Patriots, Uncategorized

The Patriots were unable to re-sign Darrelle Revis, but they did well to bring back Devin McCourty before the start of free agency. It was a weak safety market so McCourty easily could have been overpaid, but this deal, which pays him 47.5 million over 5 years with 28.5 million guaranteed, is appropriate for someone of McCourty’s skill set. It’s right in the middle in total money, annual salary, and guaranteed money between what Earl Thomas got last off-season and what Jairus Byrd got last off-season. Thomas re-signed for 40 million over 4 years with 27.725 million guaranteed, while Byrd signed for 4 million over 6 years with 28 million guaranteed.

It’s a lot of money, but McCourty is arguably the best safety in the NFL. He entered the NFL as a cornerback, moved to safety in the middle of the 2012 season and has pretty much been dominant wherever he’s been. He’s graded out above average in all 5 seasons he’s been in the league since the Patriots drafted him in the 1st round in 2010 and, with the exception of 2011, he’s been an elite player in every season. In 2010, he was Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked cornerback. In 2012, his composite grade across cornerback and safety would have been 5th among cornerbacks and 4th among safeties. And in the last two seasons, he’s been Pro Football Focus’ 1st and 8th ranked safety respectively. He and Eric Weddle are the only two safeties to grade out in the top-8 in each of the last 2 seasons. This deal isn’t a great value or anything, but it’s a solid move.

Grade: B+

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New York Jets sign CB Darrelle Revis

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jets, Uncategorized

Revis was reportedly going to give the Patriots the right to match any offer he got elsewhere, so we can safely assume that the Patriots’ final offer was less than this 5-year, 70 million dollar deal with 39 million guaranteed that Revis got from his former team, the New York Jets. That shouldn’t be a surprise, considering the Patriots’ history of not paying top dollar to players who are 30 or older, with the obvious exception of Tom Brady. That generally has served them well, but I think Revis is the type of player you make an exception for and that they should have paid up. Conversely, as much as the Jets paid him, they’re still getting a good deal with Revis and a borderline steal, especially considering how big of a need they have at cornerback.

Darrelle Revis is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, grading out 3rd in 2008, 2nd in 2009, 18th in 2010, 1st in 2011, 1st in 2013, and 4th in 2014, with a torn ACL in 2012 that didn’t slow his career down in between. He’s bounced around from the Jets to the Buccaneers to the Patriots back to the Jets over the past few seasons for a few reasons. He tore his ACL in 2012 and then was traded to the Buccaneers for a 1st round pick ahead of his contract year. Tampa Bay then let him go rather than paying him $16 million in 2014 and the Patriots did the same this off-season, rather than paying him $20 million in 2015. However, he’s arguably the best cornerback in the NFL, one of the best players in the entire NFL, and absolutely deserves this long-term security, even going into his age 30 season. He’s yet to show a single sign of slowing down thus far.

Grade: A-

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Jacksonville Jaguars sign OT Jeremy Parnell

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jaguars, Uncategorized

In the Cowboys’ off-season preview, I mentioned that they could re-sign Parnell instead of Doug Free if they saw Pernell as a younger, cheaper option at right tackle. So much for that. Free got 15 million over 3 years from the Cowboys with 6 million guaranteed. Pernell got almost as much in guarantees as Free got in total value as this deal guarantees him 13 million and is worth a maximum value of 32 million over 5 years.

I also mentioned that Parnell could be this off-season Anthony Collins, a backup who has flashed in limited action that gets paid to be a starter somewhere this off-season. I also said that Parnell wouldn’t get as much as Collins got because his history wasn’t as clean, but Collins only got 30 million over 5 years from Tampa Bay last off-season, with nothing guaranteed beyond the first year (he was recently cut after struggling mightily in 2014).

The Jaguars have money to spend and need to spend to get to the salary floor and they had a hole at right tackle, but this is way too much money to commit to a player like Pernell who has made 7 starts in 6 years in the league since going undrafted in 2009. Five of those starts came in 2014 and he was Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked offensive tackle despite playing just 388 snaps last year, with no one grading out better than him on fewer snaps. However, prior to 2014, Pernell had only played 294 snaps in his career combined and had never graded out above average. Given that Free got just 15 million over 3 years and Bryan Bulaga got just 33.75 million over 5 years, there’s no way this wasn’t an overpay.

Grade: D

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New Orleans Saints trade TE Jimmy Graham to Seattle Seahawks for C Max Unger

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Saints, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Trade for Saints: I think you can say this is the most surprising move of the day. With probably the least financial flexibility of any team in the NFL, the Saints came up with a creative way to get under the cap for this year and give them added flexibility long-term and it involved parting ways with a player they gave a 4-year, 40 million dollar deal to last off-season. Jimmy Graham and the remaining 27 million over 3 years go to the Seahawks in the deal, along with a 4th rounder, while Seattle’s first round pick comes back to New Orleans along with center Max Unger, who is owed just 9 million over the next 2 seasons.

A lot of Saints fans will undoubtedly be sad to see Jimmy Graham go, but I like this move for them. There’s a drop off in talent from Graham to Unger and their offense immediately becomes worse as a result of this move, but the difference in value between a 1st and 4th round pick is significant, as is the difference in these two players’ contracts. Besides, Unger will slot in at a position of need for the Saints at center and he’s a very solid player.

Unger was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked center last season, despite playing just 385 snaps. No one played fewer snaps and graded out better at the position. He missed 10 games with injury last season and the Seahawks desperately missed him when he was out of the lineup. Injuries have been an issue for him in the past as he’s missed 29 games in 6 seasons in the league with injury. Inconsistency is also a problem as, while he was dominant on the field last season and while he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked center in 2012, those are the only two seasons he’s been in the top-10 among centers on Pro Football Focus. Still, he’s graded out above average in 5 of 6 seasons in the NFL and getting him at 9 million over 2 years is a better value than Graham over 27 million over 3, which is very important for the Saints. Add in the swap of picks and I think the Saints made a smart move.

Grade: A

Trade for Seahawks: As I hinted at above, I think the Saints were the winners here. This trade kind of reminds me of the Percy Harvin deal, when the Seahawks were so desperate for a playmaker that they overpaid. Graham should work out in Seattle much better than Harvin did and he fills a huge need for them. Graham for 27 million over 3 years is by no means a bad contract, but they gave up a first round pick and an underpaid center for him. The Seahawks’ offensive line is now in terrible shape as Unger was the only offensive lineman on the roster to grade out positively last season.

Grade: C+

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Indianapolis Colts sign OLB Trent Cole

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Colts, Uncategorized

The Eagles cut Cole earlier this month, but that doesn’t mean he can’t still play well. He was cut because he was owed 10.025 million in cash and the Eagles freed up 8.425 million in cap space by letting him go. Freeing up cap space has been a big theme for the Eagles in Chip Kelly’s first off-season controlling personnel and they decided they wanted to go forward with Connor Barwin, Marcus Smith, and a re-signed Brandon Graham over Cole. Cole has still graded out above average in every season of Pro Football Focus’ 8-year existence, including 7th among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2013 and 19th in 2014.

Cole takes less annually in Indianapolis on this deal, 8 million, which is more appropriate. It’s also a short-term deal, 2-years, 16 million, which is good because Cole is going into his age 33 season. Outside of 8 million in the first season, Cole isn’t guaranteed anything else in this deal and can be cut without being owed any more money next off-season if he doesn’t work out. For a Colts team that needed edge rush help, it’s a smart move.

Grade: B+

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Buffalo Bills re-sign OLB Jerry Hughes

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bills, Uncategorized

Jerry Hughes was a bust in Indianapolis as a first round pick in 2010, playing a combined 240 snaps in 2010 and 2011 and then struggling in his first serious action in 2012, grading out 25th out of 34 eligible 3-4 outside linebackers. The Bills acquired him after that season for basically nothing and he shed that bust label quickly, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013 and their 14th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2014.

This deal will pay him 45 million over 5 years with 22 million guaranteed. It’s a lot of money, but it’s an appropriate value for Hughes. The Bills are moving back to a 3-4 under Rex Ryan in 2015, so Hughes will move back to rush linebacker, but he shouldn’t have any problem with it. As I mentioned earlier, his breakout 2013 campaign came in a 3-4, when Mike Pettine was the Bills’ defensive coordinator. Pettine happens to be a Rex Ryan disciple, as he was Ryan’s former defensive coordinator, and they run very similar schemes.

Grade: B+

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