Month: March 2015

New York Jets sign G James Carpenter

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jets, Uncategorized

The Jets were in on all the big-time guards available in free agency this off-season, Mike Iupati, Orlando Franklin, and Clint Boling and for good reason. Right guard Willie Colon struggled last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 66th ranked guard out of 78 eligible, and is now going into his age 32 season. Meanwhile at left guard, Brian Winters has been a disaster since they drafted him in the 3rd round in 2013. He was Pro Football Focus’ 77th ranked guard out of 81 eligible as a rookie and last year he was 65th out of 78 eligible, despite playing just 381 snaps. Oday Aboushi, a 2013 5thround pick, took over the starting job from him week 7 and was better, but only by default.

However, the Jets struck out on all 3 of those guards and had to settle for James Carpenter on a 4-year, 19.1 million dollar deal with 7.5 million guaranteed. This deal is cheaper than the ones given to the other 3 guards, but Carpenter isn’t nearly as good of a player. Carpenter, a 2011 1st round pick by the Seahawks, started just 39 games in 4 seasons (31 at left guard, 8 at right tackle, where they originally wanted him to play). That’s a result of several injuries and overall poor play, as he’s graded out well below average in all 4 seasons. He shouldn’t be getting this much money. With the Jets bringing back Willie Colon at right guard and plugging in Carpenter at left guard, guard will remain a position of weakness for the Jets in 2015.

Grade: C-

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Kansas City Chiefs sign S Tyvon Branch

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Tyvon Branch will make 2.1 million this season with another 2 million available through incentives. This is a very smart, buy low, one-year prove it deal by the Chiefs. Branch has missed all but 4 games over the past 2 season with injuries, but he was once a solid safety, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked safety in 2011 and their 30th ranked safety in 2012. He’s only going into his age 29 season. After all the injuries, it’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever be the same player again, but this is a very low risk deal and he could easily be a short-term replacement for Eric Berry as a hybrid box safety/linebacker, as Berry recovers from cancer.

Grade: A

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Oakland Raiders sign S Nate Allen

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Raiders, Uncategorized

The Raiders needed safety help next to Charles Woodson, as they released Tyvon Branch, who has missed 28 games over the past 2 seasons, and Brandian Ross, who has played in Branch’s absence in each of the last 2 seasons, has struggled. This 4-year, 23 million dollar deal with 11.8 million guaranteed is a risky move for the Raiders. If Allen plays like he did last season, when he was Pro Football Focus’ 28th ranked safety, he’ll be worth it (or like he did in 2011 when he was 18th at his position), but he has a history of inconsistency.

Nate Allen has been a starter with the Eagles for 5 seasons since they drafted him in the 2nd round in 2010. Over that period of time, he’s played 74 of a possible 80 games, including 70 starts, but he has been up and down, grading out below average in 3 of 5 seasons and never having back-to-back above average seasons. His worst year came in 2012, when he graded out 84th out of 88 eligible safeties. His terrible 2012 is more than 2 years ago, he’s coming off a solid season, and he’s an experienced starter, so I don’t have a problem with him being a starter in 2015 and getting starter’s money, but this is above average starter’s money.

Grade: C+

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St. Louis Rams re-sign WR Kenny Britt

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Rams, Uncategorized

Kenny Britt has definitely had an interesting career trajectory, for better or worse. The 2009 1st round pick looked on his way to a promising career in 2010 and 2011. After averaging 1.86 yards per route run as a rookie in 2009, Britt averaged an absurd 3.07 yards per route run in 2010 and 2011, catching a combined 59 passes for 1064 yards and 12 touchdowns on a combined 347 routes run. However, a good as he was in 2010 and 2011, he only played a combined 15 games thanks to multiple injuries, including a torn ACL that derailed his career big-time.

Upon his return from that torn ACL in 2012, he averaged just 1.49 yards per route run in 14 games, after starting the season with a 1 game suspension as a result of a checkered off-the-field history that includes 9 arrests. He was noticeably slowed by surgeries to both of his knees. In 2013, his final year in Tennessee, he was a train wreck. Britt was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd worst ranked wide receiver, despite playing just 305 snaps. No one played fewer snaps and graded out worse. He only caught a third of his 33 targets, with 11 catches for 96 yards and he dropped 7 passes. He averaged just 0.48 yards per route run on 201 routes run. He was the definition of awful and also got into it with his coaches, which is why he had to settle for a minimum deal in free agency last season, rejoining ex-head coach Jeff Fisher in St. Louis.

He bounced back in 2014 with the Rams, catching 48 passes for 748 yards and 3 touchdowns, grading out above average for the first time since his injury shortened 2011 campaign. That was the most receiving yards by a Rams’ receiver since 2008, though that isn’t saying much. Britt also played all 16 games for the first time since his rookie year. I like the fit of him re-signing in St. Louis and sticking with Jeff Fisher, under whom he’s always played his best football, and he’s still only going into his age 27 season after all the ups and downs. However, I question the logic of giving Kenny Britt a 2-year, 9.05 million dollar deal with 4.3 million guaranteed in the first year. Not only am I not sure if he’s worth this kind of money, but I don’t know who else would have given him this kind of money, after his history. It’s not a bad deal though, especially for the receiver needy Rams.

Grade: B-

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Cincinnati Bengals sign DE Michael Johnson

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bengals, Uncategorized

The Buccaneers signed Michael Johnson to a 5-year, 43.75 million dollar deal last off-season, coming over from Cincinnati. Johnson struggled mightily in his one year in Tampa Bay, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 53rd ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 59 eligible on 648 snaps in 14 games. Still, I was surprised when they gave up on him after one year, as they didn’t get back the 16 million they already paid him for one-year and he could have bounced back in 2015. Much of the reason why he struggled in 2014 was probably the ankle injury that hampered him all season.

Tampa Bay’s loss is Cincinnati’s gain, as they get Johnson back, which fills a huge need they had at defensive end last season in his absence, and they get him far cheaper than he would have been last off-season, as this deal will pay him 24 million over 4 years. Johnson has a good chance to bounce back this year now that he’ll be healthier and now that he’s back in Cincinnati. Ex-defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer is gone, but the Bengals promoted internally with Paul Guenther so the system didn’t really change.

Prior to last season’s down year, Johnson was one of the better edge rushers in the NFL, hence why he got the big contract. A highly athletic 2009 3rd round pick who struggled to put it all together in the first 3 years of his career, grading out below average in every season from 2009-2011, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012 and then proved it again on the franchise tag in 2013, grading out 4th at his position. This is a relatively low risk deal that has strong potential to be a steal.

Grade: A

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Indianapolis Colts re-sign S Mike Adams

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Colts, Uncategorized

Mike Adams has been in the league for 11 years, since 2004, but last season was arguably the best of his career, as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked safety and made the first Pro-Bowl of his career. This is the same guy whose career looked like it could have been over until the Colts signed him in June of last off-season. He’s going into his age 34 season and the Colts can’t expect him to repeat the best season of his career again, but he was a solid starter in 2011, 2012, and 2013, grading out above average in 2011 and 2012 and only slightly below average in 2013. He should still be a starting caliber player for 2015 and the Colts are risking very little by bringing him back, giving him just 4.25 million over 2 years with nothing guaranteed beyond a 1.2 million dollar signing bonus. He can earn another 500K if he makes the Pro-Bowl again in either of the next two seasons.

Grade: A

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Kansas City Chiefs re-sign S Ron Parker

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Ron Parker had a strong market this off-season so I’m not surprised that the Chiefs had to give him a 5-year, 25 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed to keep him and they did need secondary help. However, that doesn’t mean this wasn’t an overpay. Parker, an undrafted free agent in 2011, played 122 snaps in the first 3 seasons of his career from 2011-2013. He saw a ton of action last season, playing 1037 snaps between cornerback and safety, but he struggled at both spots, grading out below average at cornerback and safety, including 73rd out of 87 eligible safeties on 745 snaps.

His versatility is nice for a Kansas City secondary in flux, but Jimmy Wilson, a comparable player with more experience, got just 4.6 million over 2 years from Kansas City’s division rival San Diego. That’s more than Parker will make guaranteed in the first year of this deal. Marcus Gilchrist, a significantly better player, got 22 million over 4 years from the Jets. Given that, this is one of the off-season’s bigger overpays.

Grade: D

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Chicago Bears sign S Antrel Rolle

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bears, Uncategorized

Antrel Rolle was Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked safety in 2013, but that slipped all the way down to 81st out of 87 eligible in 2014. His 2014 season was more in line with his recent play as he’s graded out below average in 5 of the last 6 seasons. He’s going into his age 33 season now so his play won’t get any better going forward. In spite of that, the Bears are paying him like a starter, giving him a 3-year, 11.25 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed.

The Bears did need help in their secondary as projected starting safeties Ryan Mundy and Brock Vereen could have been upgraded, but this move won’t upgrade either of them. Mundy and Vereen, as mediocre as they are, graded out 36th and 54th respectively last season. Rolle can also play slot cornerback, but he won’t upgrade incumbent Demontre Hurst on the slot. Hurst isn’t a great cornerback, but he graded out 51st among cornerbacks last season. This deal is a big overpay, even though it’s not a ton of money. The only redeeming quality of this deal is that there’s no guaranteed money beyond the first year so they can get out of it next off-season, but 5 million over a year is still too much to guarantee Rolle.

Grade: C-

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Cincinnati Bengals re-sign G Clint Boling

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bengals, Uncategorized

Talented guards Orlando Franklin and Mike Iupati got 5-year deals worth 36.5 million and 40 million respectively with 20 million and 22 million guaranteed respectively from the Chargers and Cardinals respectively this off-season. I like both of those deals and thought they were solid values, but the deal Clint Boling signed to stay in Cincinnati is the best of the trio I think. Boling’s deal will only pay him 26 million over 5 years with just 5 million guaranteed.

Boling, a 2011 4th round pick, barely played as a rookie (175 snaps), but he’s been a starter over the past 3 seasons, making 44 of 48 starts (2 of which were at right tackle) and grading out above average in all 3 seasons. He was Pro Football Focus’ 22nd ranked guard in 2012, 18th ranked in 2013, and 19th ranked in 2014. He’s quietly one of the better guards in the NFL and this is a very good value for him.

Grade: A

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Philadelphia Eagles re-sign QB Mark Sanchez

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, Uncategorized

Everyone was quick to say that Mark Sanchez had turned it around in Philadelphia last year working with Chip Kelly instead of Rex Ryan, but he didn’t maintain his high level of play. He completed 64.1% of his passes for an average of 7.83 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, mediocre numbers in today’s NFL. Out of the league in 2013 because of injury, Sanchez has ranked 27th (2014), 37th (2012), 36th(2011), 27th (2010), and 39th (2009) on Pro Football Focus since being drafted in 2009.

He’s somehow made 76 starts over that period of time, but if he has to make starts for the Eagles in 2015, because Sam Bradford gets hurt again or something, they’ll be in trouble. Still, this deal, worth 9 million over 2 years with 5.5 million guaranteed and likely unattainable incentives worth up to 16 million, is pretty reasonable when you compare it to what guys like Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, and Josh McCown got this off-season and what guys like Chad Henne, Matt Cassel, and Michael Vick got last off-season. Sanchez is a bottom rung starting quarterback, but he’s an above average backup.

Grade: B+

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