Month: March 2015

Indianapolis Colts sign DE Kendall Langford

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Colts, Uncategorized

Kendall Langford was cut by the Rams earlier this off-season, but it wasn’t because he played badly last season. They cut him because his 6 million dollar salary was too much to pay for a 3rd defensive tackle and they could save that entire amount on the cap by letting him go. Langford graded out about average last season, but only saw 494 snaps as he was stuck behind recent 1st round picks Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers.

The Colts get him at less than 6 million annually on this 4-year, 17.2 million dollar deal with just 2.5 million guaranteed, which is a solid value. He’s still a starting caliber player, only going into his age 29 season, and he’ll fill a position of need for the Colts as a 3-4 defensive end. I like Langford in a 3-4 more than a 4-3 anyway. He had some success in St. Louis’ 4-3, but graded out below average twice in three seasons. In a 3-4 to start his career in Miami, he graded out above average in 2 of 4 seasons, including 7th at his position in 2009 and then 7th again in 2010. This is a solid move.

Grade: B

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Miami Dolphins trade WR Mike Wallace to the Minnesota Vikings

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Dolphins, Uncategorized, Vikings

Trade for Dolphins: It’s no secret the Dolphins have been trying to get rid of Mike Wallace all off-season and the writing on the wall got put into dark ink when the Dolphins traded for Kenny Stills. Credit them for being able to trade him, rather than outright releasing him. That has two benefits. The obvious one is the compensation, even if it is just a swap of a 7th round pick for a 5th round pick. The other benefit is that the Dolphins get out of his 3 million dollar guarantee. If they had cut him, they would have had to pay 3 million of his 9.9 million dollar salary for 2015. By trading him, his whole salary goes to Minnesota. That boosts the cap savings of getting rid of him from 2.5 million to 5.5 million and he’ll be completely off of their cap for 2016. This was a great move by the Dolphins.

Trade for Vikings: I like this move for the Dolphins. I don’t get it for the Vikings. This move allows them to release Greg Jennings, a move that will save them 5 million on the cap and 9 million in cash, but they go from one overpaid receiver to another. There’s a reason why the Dolphins were trying to get rid of Wallace so badly. Wallace is a solid receiver, but his last 1000+ yard year was in 2011, also the last season he graded out above average.

In his final year in Pittsburgh in 2012, he held out long into the off-season, which caused him to have a horrible season. His 64/836/8 slash line wasn’t terrible, but he caught just 55.2% of his targets and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 91st ranked wide receiver out of 105 eligible. That didn’t stop the Dolphins from giving Wallace a 5-year, 60 million dollar deal and he predictably didn’t live up to it, grading out below average in both seasons, putting up slash lines of 73/930/5 and 67/862/10, and reportedly quitting on his team on multiple occasions. It’s possible this trade could serve as a wake-up call for him, but it’s not worth 9.9 million to find out. Even picks aside, they overpaid for Wallace.

Grade: C-

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers sign DT Henry Melton

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Henry Melton was Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked defensive tackle in 2011 and 6th ranked in 2012, both seasons with the Bears, but he was limited to 125 snaps in 3 games in 2013 by a torn ACL. As he was playing on the franchise tag in 2013, he hit free agency last off-season and signed with the Cowboys. The Cowboys only paid 2.25 million plus incentives for Melton in 2014, but declined his 3-year, 24 million dollar option this off-season.

Melton played well when on the field in 2014, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked defensive tackle, but he had recurring knee problems and played just 433 snaps. He’s still relatively young (going into his age 29 season), he played well last season when on the field, and he could bounce back in his 2nd year since the injury. This deal will pay him 3.75 million on a one-year deal in 2015 with another 1.25 million available in incentives, so it’s pretty low risk and the upside is huge. Melton will work in rotation with Gerald McCoy and Clinton McDonald. Being reunited with Tampa Bay head coach Lovie Smith, a strong defensive mind who was Melton’s head coach in Chicago for his best years, certainly doesn’t hurt him.

Grade: A

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Oakland Raiders sign MLB Curtis Lofton

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Raiders, Uncategorized

Curtis Lofton finished 4th in the NFL in tackles with 145 last season. Given the size of this deal, 18 million over 3 years with 10 million guaranteed, I assume the Raiders didn’t actually watch Lofton play last season and just looked at the tackle stats. His 22 missed tackles led the NFL regardless of position and a lot of his tackles were him cleaning up broken plays after big gains on a New Orleans defense that was arguably the NFL’s worst in 2014. He ended the season as Pro Football Focus’ 57th ranked middle linebacker out of 60 eligible.

This is nothing new for him. Lofton was Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked middle linebacker in 2011 in the final year of his rookie deal with the Falcons, which landed him a 5-year, 27.5 million dollar deal from the Saints the following off-season. However, he graded out below average in all 3 seasons with the Saints, with his worst year coming last year. There’s a reason the Saints released him, a move that saved them 7.25 million in cash and 4.25 million on the cap. Lofton gets slightly less annually in Oakland than 7.25 million, but this is still a big overpay. It’s actually more per year than he got on his last deal. He’ll be an upgrade on Miles Burris, but only by default as Burris was Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked middle linebacker by a wide margin in 2014.

Grade: D

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Oakland Raiders sign DT Dan Williams

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Raiders, Uncategorized

After it became clear that the Raiders, loaded with cap space and dealing with a huge hole at defensive tackle, would not land Ndamukong Suh, speculation immediately tied Terrance Knighton to the Raiders. It made sense given that Knighton had broken out as one of the better defensive tackles in the NFL over the past 2 seasons under new Oakland head coach Jack Del Rio’s tutelage in Denver, where Del Rio was the defensive coordinator, but ultimately they seemed to be scared off by the weight concerns that killed Knighton’s market this off-season. While signing Knighton to a same 1-year, 4 million dollar prove it deal that the Redskins signed him to would have been a good move, signing Dan Williams to this 4-year, 25 million dollar deal with 15 million guaranteed is also a solid value.

Dan Williams was a first round pick by the Cardinals in 2010 as a 6-2 327 pounder with rare movement and pass rush abilities for his size. Williams never quite lived up to his billing, maxing out at 428 snaps and primarily just playing in base packages, but he graded out above average in 4 of 5 seasons, including each of the last 3 seasons and he had his best season in his contract year in 2014. He played all 16 games for the first time in his career and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked defensive tackle on just 427 snaps.

On top of that, he actually graded out above average as a pass rusher, something he’s done in each of the last 2 seasons after grading out below average in that aspect in each of his first 3 seasons. It’s possible his best football is still ahead of him, going into his age 28 season, and I’m excited to see him get more pass rush opportunities in Oakland’s 4-3. He’ll work inside in rotation with veteran Antonio Smith and Justin Ellis, who flashed as a 4th round rookie in 2014. Williams should set a career high in snaps in 2015 and could have a breakout year.

Grade: A-

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Jacksonville Jaguars sign CB Davon House

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jaguars, Uncategorized

So far this off-season, the Jaguars have given 32 million over 5 years to a guy who has been in the league 6 years and maxed out at 388 snaps in a season (Jeremy Parnell), 20.5 million over 5 years to a guy who has been in the league 6 years and maxed out at 398 snaps in a season (Dan Skuta), and now 25 million over 4 years to a guy who has been in the league 4 years and maxed out at 472 snaps in a season (Davon House). It’s an interesting strategy for a team with a ton of money to play with. All 3 of these players have flashed in limited action and the Jaguars think they’re finding diamonds in the rough, but the league generally is smart enough to not let guys slip through the cracks that many times and they’re overpaying based on what other teams around the league would have paid.

This deal is the best of the trio I think. Not only is House younger (only going into his age 26 season), but he’s only been on one team in his career, so it’s not like he’s bounced around the league unable to find starting work like the other 2 players. House, a 2011 4th round pick, just happens to have been stuck on a team with solid cornerback depth thus far in his career in Green Bay. I’m not surprised he got starting cornerback money and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if there was a market for his services around this rate, so it’s far less likely that Jaguars were outbidding other teams by a significant amount for House than it is in the cases of Skuta and Pernell. That alone doesn’t make it a good move, but House has always graded out around average in his career and could definitely break out as a starter in Jacksonville in 2015 and beyond. It’s an overpay, but it’s not egregious.

Grade: C-

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Jacksonville Jaguars sign OLB Dan Skuta

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jaguars, Uncategorized

What?!?! This deal has to be easily the most surprising deal of the off-season, as I never expected Skuta to get anything close to 20.5 million over 5 years and it’s hard to imagine the Jaguars were bidding against any team willing to offer Skuta even half of this money. I like Skuta as a player. The amount of different positions Skuta has played in the NFL is incredible. He’s played 4-3 defensive end, fullback, 4-3 outside linebacker, 4-3 middle linebacker, 3-4 outside linebacker, and 3-4 middle linebacker, while excelling on special teams.

In Jacksonville, he’ll probably play the Bruce Irvin role in Jacksonville’s Seattle style defense, playing as a base 4-3 outside linebacker who rushes the passer from the edge in sub packages occasionally. Skuta has graded out above average in 3 of the last 4 seasons, including 2 straight, including a 2013 campaign in which he was Pro Football Focus’ 16th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker on just 304 snaps in San Francisco, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out better at the position. However, he’s never played more than 398 snaps in a season (setting that career high in 2014) and he’s already going into his age 29 season.

I don’t think this move is quite as bad as it looks at first glance and quite as bad as a lot of people are making it out to be. Skuta is a solid role player who could breakout as a solid starter in 2015 and beyond and, while this is an overpay, the Jaguars have cap space, need to spend to hit the salary floor, and need to kind of overpay to get people to come join a team that’s struggled so much in recent seasons. However, it’s still a pretty big overpay by the Jaguars. He’s a projection to an every-down role. He’s not that young. And the list of guys who break out as starters for the first time in their 7th season in the league isn’t very long. The league is generally smart enough for guys not to fall through the cracks that many times.

Grade: D

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Jacksonville Jaguars sign DE Jared Odrick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jaguars, Uncategorized

This deal is a much better value than the 6-year, 114 million dollar deal with 60 million guaranteed that the Miami Dolphins gave to Ndamukong Suh, even for a team like Jacksonville with plenty of money to spend and the need to spend to get guys to play for a franchise that has struggled mightily in recent years. Odrick, who Suh replaces in Miami, gets 42.5 million over 5 years with 22 million guaranteed from the Jaguars. The Dolphins would have been much better off re-signing Odrick and using the additional 10 million or so annually to fill multiple other holes in their secondary and on their offensive line.

Back to the Jaguars, this is a solid value for them. Odrick has been Pro Football Focus’ 16th and 19th ranked defensive tackle over the past 2 seasons respectively. It’s a bit of an overpay for a guy whose play falls just short of elite, but it’s still a decent move. My one concern is the Jaguars will probably play Odrick at both defensive end and defensive tackle in the Red Bryant/Michael Bennett role in Gus Bradley’s Seattle style front. The Jaguars even released Bryant after making this move. Odrick has experience at both positions, but he struggled mightily early in his career as both a 3-4 and a 4-3 defensive end, including 59th out of 62 eligible 4-3 defensive ends in 2012. It’s possible those days are past him, but I like him more as a pure interior player.

Grade: B

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Jacksonville Jaguars sign TE Julius Thomas

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Julius Thomas played 50 snaps in his first 2 seasons in the league, catching 1 pass, after the incredibly athletic former basketball player was drafted in the 4th round in 2011. He broke out in 2013, catching 65 passes for 788 yards and 12 touchdowns, but he was limited by injuries in 2014, catching 43 passes for 489 yards and 12 touchdowns in 13 games. Thomas is a poor run blocker, has never played all 16 games in a season, and a lot of his passing game production was the result of getting to play with Peyton Manning.

I pegged him as a candidate to be overpaid on the open market this off-season and, sure enough, he was, as the Jaguars gave him 46 million over 5 years with 24 million guaranteed. This makes him the 2nd highest paid tight end in the NFL behind Jimmy Graham, who, by the way, got traded earlier this week. I understand the Jaguars needed to add talent this off-season and had a lot of cap room to work with, but this is definitely an overpay and one that they could easily live to regret down the line. Thomas won’t be nearly as productive with Blake Bortles as he was with Peyton Manning.

Grade: C-

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Green Bay Packers re-sign OT Bryan Bulaga

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Packers, Uncategorized

Bulaga has been a starter for the Packers since they drafted him in the 1st round in 2010, making his debut as a starter in week 5 of 2010. However, despite that, he’s only made 48 starts in 5 seasons, as he’s missed 30 games with injuries over that time period, including all of 2013 with a torn ACL. When on the field, he’s been up and down. He struggled mightily as a rookie, grading out 71st out of 78 eligible in 2010, but he ranked 7th among offensive tackles on 12 starts in 2011. In 2012, he graded out below average in 9 starts before missing all of 2013, but he returned in 2014 to make 15 starts and grade out 16th among offensive tackles.

Given that, he was a very risky signing. It’s tough to know what to make of this 5-year, 33.75 million dollar deal. It’s a much better value than the 5-year, 32 million dollar deal the Jaguars gave to Jeremy Pernell and has 7 career starts this off-season, but that’s not saying much. Bulaga also probably would have gotten more money on the open market had the Packers allowed him to hit the open market, but, again that’s not really saying much. It’s not a terrible value, but it’s hard to say it’s a great move, given the level of risk involved with Bulaga.

Grade: B-

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