Month: March 2015

Kansas City Chiefs sign WR Jeremy Maclin

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Maclin had a great 2014 season, as he had career highs across the board in Chip Kelly’s offense, despite quarterback problems, catching 85 passes for 1318 yards and 10 touchdowns, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked wide receiver. However, he’s a one-year wonder. From 2009-2013, he missed 21 games with injury, including all of 2013 with a torn ACL. 2014 was also the first season in his career in which he graded out above average on Pro Football Focus. He was terrible in 2012, grading out 101st out of 105 eligible.

He obviously deserved to be a hot commodity on the open market this off-season, but I think the Chiefs overpaid with this 5-year, 55 million dollar deal that guarantees him 22.5 million, even though the Chiefs have huge problems at wide receiver. The fact that the Eagles, who have issues at wide receiver at well, were only willing to offer 9 million annually to Maclin is concerning, as is the fact that Maclin never did well before being in Chip Kelly’s scheme last season and now he returns to Andy Reid’s scheme, which he didn’t do that well in from 2009-2012 to start his career. Couple that with his injury history and his overall past struggles and this isn’t a very good deal. The Chiefs appear to have overpaid out of desperation, which isn’t a good move, especially for a team that doesn’t have a ton of cap flexibility.

Grade: C-

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Pittsburgh Steelers extend QB Ben Roethlisberger

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Steelers, Uncategorized

Roethlisberger’s contract was originally scheduled to expire after 2015. This new deal will keep him in Pittsburgh through 2019 and pay him 99 million over those 5 years, with escalators that can make it worth up to 108 million. It’s a lot of money, obviously, but it’s the going rate for an average or better starting quarterback. If you have a quarterback that you want to keep long-term, you need to give him this kind of deal because you know that someone else will on the open market if you don’t, given how today’s NFL is. You just better hope that the quarterback you’re giving this deal of deal to is closer to Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees or Peyton Manning than they are to Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco or Colin Kaepernick.

I think Roethlisberger is closer to the former. Roethlisberger’s issue used to be injuries, as a result of his playing style. He rarely suffered significant injuries, but he played all 16 games just once in 9 seasons from 2004-2012. However, Todd Haley has implemented an offense that has more quicker, short throws and forces the ball out of Roethlisberger’s hand quicker, which has led to him playing all 32 games over the past 2 seasons combined. It took a little bit for him to be comfortable in the new scheme, with the new playing style, but he’s completed 65.7% of his passes for an average of 7.73 YPA, 60 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions over the past 2 seasons and is coming off of a season in which he had a 103.3 QB rating, 2nd best in his career.

Last season he was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked quarterback. That’s the highest he’s ever ranked in their 8-year history, but he’s always been very solid, ranking 4th in 2007, 26th in 2008, 6th in 2009, 6th in 2010, 7th in 2011, 7th in 2012, and 11th in 2013. He’s one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL and this contract pays him appropriately. It might seem slightly concerning that this contract takes him through his age 37 season, but more and more quarterbacks have played well into their mid and late 30s over the past decade or so and the guaranteed money doesn’t run until that season. This is a good deal.

Grade: A

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Cleveland Browns extend DE John Hughes

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Browns, Uncategorized

Hughes was a 3rd round pick by the Browns in 2012. Hughes struggled as a rookie in a 4-3, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 69th ranked defensive tackle out of 85 eligible on 530 snaps, but he’s done better over the past two seasons as a 3-4 defensive end. In 2013, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked 3-4 defensive end on just 402 snaps, in a smaller, rotational role. That earned him a starting job going into 2014, but he was limited to just 5 games by injury, though he played well when on the field.

Hughes doesn’t have a huge injury history though and could absolutely bounce back in 2015 as a starter on the 3-man defensive line with Phil Taylor and Desmond Bryant. There’s a chance he could finally have the breakout year that the Browns were expecting from him last season and that would have caused him to command a lot of fair amount of money on the open market. Given that, this 4-year, 14.4 million dollar extension makes a lot of sense. It’s a smart, forward thinking move by the Browns that could absolutely pay off and, worst case scenario, he’s only guaranteed 3.56 million.

Grade: A

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Kansas City Chiefs extend G Ben Grubbs

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chiefs, Uncategorized

The Chiefs traded a 5th round pick to the Saints for Ben Grubbs last week. I said it was a decent move for the guard needy Chiefs because, while Grubbs did grade below average last season and while he is going into his age 31 season, he graded out as a top-16 guard from 2009-2013. His salary for 2015 was scheduled to be 6.6 million, but he wasn’t guaranteed anything beyond 2015 so, if he struggled again in 2016, he could be cut without penalty. The Chiefs have ripped up that old deal, however, and have given him this new 4-year, 24 million dollar deal. This new deal cuts his cap number for 2015 and his average annual salary, but in return, it gives him 8 million guaranteed, essentially ensuring that he’ll be on the roster in 2016. It’s a risky move considering he had a down year last year, but there’s a chance that guaranteeing part of his 2016 salary doesn’t end up hurting them.

Grade: B-

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New Orleans Saints trade G Ben Grubbs to the Kansas City Chiefs

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chiefs, Saints, Uncategorized

Trade for Saints: The Saints came into the off-season in rough shape cap wise. Getting rid of Grubbs hurts, but it’s an understandable move. Grubbs was a top-16 guard on Pro Football Focus for 5 straight seasons from 2009-2013, but graded out slightly below average last season and now he’s going into his age 31 season. The Saints save 6.6 million in cash and 3.6 million on the cap by letting him got (they also got him completely off their cap for 2016) and getting at least something back in return for him (a 5th rounder) is nice.

Grade: B-

Trade for Chiefs: The Chiefs had arguably the worst guard play in the NFL last season, as Zach Fulton and Mike McGlynn graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 64th and 78th ranked guard respectively out of 78 eligible last season. They will have Jeff Allen back from injury in 2015, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 60th ranked guard out of 81 eligible in 2013 and missing a whole season with injury probably doesn’t help his future. Grubbs wasn’t great last season and he’s aging, but he’ll only be 31 next season and he could easily bounce back, as he was a dominant player from 2009-2013. The Chiefs aren’t paying much for him, a 5th round pick and 6.6 million in 2015, and can cut him without penalty after the season if he continues struggling, so it’s a solid move.

Grade: B

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New Orleans Saints sign RB CJ Spiller

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Saints, Uncategorized

This contract isn’t inappropriate for a player of Spiller’s skill set, as Spiller will make 18 million over 4 years with 9 million guaranteed. That’s the 2nd most a running back has gotten on the open market after DeMarco Murray this off-season, but you can make an argument that Spiller was the 2nd best back available through free agency this year. CJ Spiller, a 2010 1st round pick, had a fantastic 2012 campaign, rushing for 1244 yards and 6 touchdowns on 207 carries (6.01 YPC), with 43 catches for 459 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He looked poised for a breakout year in 2013 as a 300+ touch back, but he struggled with injuries over the last 2 seasons (missing 8 games combined and being limited in several others) and he was never a great fit for Doug Marrone and Nathaniel Hackett’s offense. Over the past 2 seasons, he’s rushed for 1233 yards and 2 touchdowns on 280 carries (4.40 YPC), with 52 catches for 310 yards and a touchdown, combined numbers that many people thought he’d be able to surpass in 2013 alone.

He’s never surpassed 207 carries with annual issues in pass protection (grading out below average in 4 of 5 seasons) and he’s coming off the worst season of his career, 300 yards on 78 carries (3.85 YPC) in 9 games. However, he has a 4.97 YPC average and shows clear first round talent at times. While this isn’t a great value for him, it’s not inappropriate. The value isn’t my issue with this deal.

My issue with this deal is the Saints came into the off-season in the least financially flexible situation, but they’ve committed 8.5 million annually to Mark Ingram and CJ Spiller combined, more than DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy both got from the Eagles and Bills respectively (and I wasn’t a fan of either of those deals either). The Saints have already had to trade Jimmy Graham and Ben Grubbs and now reportedly will have to cut Jahri Evans to make this deal work. Those were three functional or better players for them last season. The Saints would have been better off drafting a rookie in the mid rounds to pair with Khiry Robinson, keeping one of their guards or finding a replacement on the open market, and investing more in their terrible defense, rather than committing this many resources to the running back position.

Grade: C+

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Indianapolis Colts sign RB Frank Gore

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Colts, Uncategorized

The Colts had a huge hole at running back. Trent Richardson didn’t pan out at all after the Colts traded a 1st round pick for him and was released this week. Ahmad Bradshaw is a free agent who has missed 25 games in the past 4 seasons combined and who was coming off of a broken ankle. Boom Herron flashed in limited action last season, but is unproven and has serious fumbling problems. That being said, the Colts will probably live to regret giving Frank Gore a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal and guaranteeing him 6.5 million of the 7.5 million he’s scheduled to make over the next 2 seasons.

Gore’s rushing yards rank 20th all-time and he could be bound for Canton. However, he’s also going into his age 32 season with 2442 carries. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade and a half, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. He might not have looked it last year, but he’s close to the end. This deal reminds me of when the Falcons signed an aging Steven Jackson two off-seasons ago. The Colts could easily feel the need to let Gore go next off-season, but they’d only save 1 million by doing that because they’ll still owe him 3 million dollars in guaranteed money either way.

Grade: C

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Baltimore Ravens re-sign RB Justin Forsett

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Ravens, Uncategorized

Justin Forsett was one of the best running backs in the NFL in 2014. He took advantage of the Ray Rice situation and rushed for 1266 yards and 8 touchdowns on 235 carries (5.39 YPC), grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked running back. However, he’s going into his age 30 season and he’s a one-year wonder. Coming into 2014, Justin Forsett was a 2008 7th round pick who had never played more than 118 carries in a season in 6 seasons in the league and had 6 carries the prior season in Jacksonville. He was able to have a breakout year in Gary Kubiak’s system, but now Kubiak is gone.

All that being said, the Ravens are only giving him 9 million over 3 years. That’s not a lot of money to bet that Forsett will continue to be starting caliber. It’s a smart move for a cap strapped team that would have had a big problem at running back if Forsett wasn’t re-signed. Lorenzo Taliaferro is an unproven 2014 4th round pick with 68 career carries, while Bernard Pierce has a mere 3.78 YPC average in his career.

Grade: A

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Philadelphia Eagles sign RB Ryan Mathews

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, Uncategorized

When I first saw these numbers, 11.5 million over 3 years with 5 million guaranteed, I thought it was a great deal for the Eagles. Mathews obviously has an injury history, playing all 16 games just once in 5 seasons, including missing 20 games combined, including 10 last season. However, when he’s healthy, he has feature back potential. In 2011, he rushed for 1091 yards and 6 touchdowns on 222 attempts (4.91 YPC), with 50 catches for 455 yards. In 2013, he rushed for 1255 yards and 6 touchdowns on 285 attempts (4.40 YPC), with 26 catches for 189 yards and another touchdown.

This deal is less money than Frank Gore (3-year, 12 million with 7.5 million guaranteed), Shane Vereen (3-year, 12 million with 5 million guaranteed), and Mark Ingram (4-year, 16 million, with 7.6 million guaranteed). Mathews is significantly younger than Gore, has the feature back potential that Vereen doesn’t have, and is more proven than Mark Ingram. However, that all changed when the Eagles signed DeMarco Murray as well.

It’s hard to tell what Chip Kelly is doing. I loved the LeSean McCoy trade, but, ever since then, every move he’s made has been head scratching, except the Brandon Graham deal. This still isn’t a bad deal value wise, but it’s a lot of money for a backup running back and it’s just a weird move on both sides. Why wouldn’t the Eagles find a cheaper backup and why wouldn’t Mathews sign somewhere like Arizona or Jacksonville or Oakland or Dallas or back to San Diego where he could get more work?

This kind of reminds me of when the Chargers signed Donald Brown to a 3-year, 10.5 million dollar deal last off-season even though they already had Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead. It wasn’t a bad value, but it didn’t make any sense. I don’t expect Mathews to rush for 2.62 YPC like Brown did last season. That was just a weird thing that happened, unrelated to the weird decision to sign him to starter’s money to be a backup. However, I don’t expect this move to work out and it’s not a move I like.

Grade: C+

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Philadelphia Eagles sign RB DeMarco Murray

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, Uncategorized

People criticized the Eagles for trading LeSean McCoy for Kiko Alonso because Alonso isn’t as good of a player as McCoy is. However, two weeks later, the Eagles have found their replacement for McCoy, giving DeMarco Murray a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal with 21 million guaranteed, similar to the extension that McCoy signed upon being traded to the Bills. If you assume Murray and McCoy are equal, all the Eagles really did was sign Kiko Alonso to a 2-year, 1.7 million dollar deal, which is an outrageous bargain. It’s not hard to find a replacement for McCoy when you have all that money freed up by trading him away. It is, however, very, very difficult to find talented 25-year-old middle linebackers available for pennies on the open market.

However, that’s just more evidence that the McCoy/Alonso trade was a brilliant move by the Eagles. Everything the Eagles have done since then has been pretty head scratching and that includes this trade for Murray. Murray was the NFL’s rushing leader last season, but this is a massive overpay. I wrote in my Cowboys off-season preview that Murray was one of the top candidates to be overpaid this off-season and that he should come with a buyer beware label on his forehead, for a variety of reasons.

For one, since 1988, only 4 of 26 running backs who led the league in carries surpassed their rushing yards total the following season. Those 26 backs averaged 365 carries per season, rushed for 1612 yards, and scored 14 touchdowns in the season they led the league in carries. The following season, they averaged 262 carries per season, rushed for 1053 yards, and scored 8 touchdowns. Murray already saw his YPC drop from 5.14 in the first 8 games of the season to 4.23 in the final 8. There’s a reason backs are rarely given more than 350 carries, as teams don’t want to ruin that player for the following season. The Cowboys knew Murray wasn’t coming back in 2015 though so they didn’t care. They offered him a mere 4-year, 16 million dollar deal this off-season.

Murray has an injury history dating back to his collegiate days too. He made it through all 16 games in 2014 (not without a broken hand), but he missed 11 games in first 3 seasons and fell to the 3rd round of the 2011 NFL Draft because of injury concerns. Even if Murray stays healthy in 2015, he’s highly unlikely to even come within 50 carries of his 2014 total, a problem as his 4.71 YPC in 2014 was good, but not outstanding or anything. He got to 1800 yards on volume largely. He also was helped out drastically by the Cowboys offensive line, as the Cowboys were Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked team in run blocking grade. Going into the season, I thought DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews were similar players, guys with every down back potential, but significant injury histories. Obviously, they had very different 2014s, as Mathews missed a significant amount of time with injury, while Murray finally stayed healthy and led the NFL in rushing, but there’s no reason Murray should get this kind of money, while Mathews got 11.5 million over 3 years.

Grade: D

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