Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

Chicago Bears (0-2) at Seattle Seahawks (0-2)

A popular pick to win the NFC again this season, the Seattle Seahawks have started the season 0-2. It’s not that bad though and they have a very good chance to bounce back in a huge way this week for a variety of reasons. For one, they haven’t really played that badly, losing in overtime as small road favorites against a decent St. Louis team and then losing by 10 in Green Bay, where the Packers are borderline unstoppable.

Now they return home for their first game of the season. It’s typically bad to have your home opener week 3 because teams that have their first home game week 3 tend to be less energized and it shows, as teams in that situation are 22-43 ATS since 1989. However, the Seahawks have had such a strong homefield advantage over the past few years that it’ll still be home sweet home. Since Russell Wilson arrived in 2012, they are 26-3 at home (20-9 ATS), outscoring opponents by an average of 13.34 points per game, as opposed to 16-13 on the road (17-12 ATS), outscoring opponents by an average of 5.72 points per game.

The Seahawks are also 10-3 ATS off of a loss since 2012. I know that trend didn’t predict the outcome last week correctly, but that’s not a reason to ignore it, especially with the Seahawks returning home and especially with Kam Chancellor returning from a holdout. 0-2 teams that made the playoffs the previous season typically play well week 3 anyway, going 18-9 ATS since 2002. I’m not confident in the Seahawks because this line is too high for me to be confident at 15, even with Jay Cutler out for the Bears. Covering that line is a tough task for a team that hasn’t really gotten their offense going and that is playing their first home game of the season week 3, against a Chicago team playing their first road game of the season (40-27 ATS since 1989). The Seahawks should be the right side though.

Seattle Seahawks 27 Chicago Bears 10

Pick against the spread: Seattle -15

Confidence: None

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