Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

Kansas City Chiefs (1-1) at Green Bay Packers (2-0)

Green Bay’s home success over the past few years is really remarkable and last week even the Seahawks couldn’t beat them there. I don’t give the inferior Chiefs much chance. As long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 28-11-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 36-4 straight up, with an absurd +579 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.48 points per game.

I really think you can’t just use the standard 3 points for Green Bay’s homefield advantage. You need to use like 4, 5, or 6 points at least. If we assume that, then the only way we’re not getting line value is if Kansas City is only a couple points worse than the Packers. Even with the Packers missing key parts from an offense that had virtually no injuries last season, with Jordy Nelson and Bryan Bulaga out and Eddie Lacy and Davante Adams expected to play, but not 100%, this is still a very good team, especially at home. 7 points is too low.

The Packers are also in a great spot, with a trip to San Francisco on deck. That’s means the Packers really have no upcoming distractions. The early line on that game is 6.5 points. Teams are 104-75 ATS since 2010 before being 4+ point road favorites and 69-47 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point road favorites. On top of that, 6+ point home favorites are 81-50 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites since 2002. I like the Packers a good amount this week.

Green Bay Packers 31 Kansas City Chiefs 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -7

Confidence: Medium

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