Month: October 2015

San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Chargers, NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (2-3) at Green Bay Packers (5-0)

I write about the Packers’ home dominance every week they play at home and there’s a good reason for that. As long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 30-11-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 38-4 straight up, with an absurd +603 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.36 points per game. This is well documented though, so we typically don’t get much line value with them at home, but they’ve still managed to cover 9 of their last 11.

I think they’re going to make it 10 of 12 this week, even though they’re favored by 10.5 points. San Diego is a solid team when they’re healthy, but they’re far from it right now. They’re expected to be without 3 starters on the offensive line for the 3rd straight week, including left tackle King Dunlap and left guard Orlando Franklin, their two best offensive linemen. On top of that, replacement left tackle Chris Hairston is expected to be out, while right guard DJ Fluker has been dealing with an ankle problem all year. They won two weeks ago with a patchwork offensive line, but that was at home against a Cleveland defense that hasn’t really been able to stop anyone this season. They should have won last week against Pittsburgh, but that was more the result of Pittsburgh’s inept quarterback play than anything San Diego’s offensive line did well. Philip Rivers is a good quarterback, but he was under siege all day and that was against a Pittsburgh pass rush that isn’t nearly as good as Green Bay’s.

Green Bay’s offense isn’t quite what it was last season, partially due to injuries in the receiving corps, but they’re still a very good offense and the defense is much improved. They rank “just” 5th in rate of moving the chains differential, but I think they’re still arguably the most talented and most complete team in the NFL. Considering, on average, they win by two touchdowns at home, they should have no problem making this another blowout in Lambeau, especially with a bye week on deck. Teams are 59-19 ATS as 6+ point home favorites going into a bye since 2002, which makes sense, as good teams with no upcoming distractions tend to take care of business. I know it’s boring, but the Packers at home are my Pick of the Week for the 2nd straight week.

Green Bay Packers 34 San Diego Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -10.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Falcons, NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (5-0) at New Orleans Saints (1-4)

The Falcons won at home last week against the Redskins in overtime on a pick six, but the fact that the Falcons had to go to overtime really hurts them this week, as they go on the road on a short week to play the Saints in New Orleans on Thursday Night Football. Unsurprisingly, teams are 4-19 ATS since 1989 on Thursday Night Football after an overtime game, including 2-14 ATS on the road, 1-13 ATS on the road after a home game, and 0-6 ATS as road favorites. All of those are small sample sizes, but it makes sense. That sequence is just so draining.

One of the most obvious negative effects of the situation is the fact that Julio Jones could be on a snap count. Jones has been dealing with a hamstring problem all year and, while he’s still played very well overall on the season, he hasn’t been quite as good over the past 2 weeks, catching 9 passes for 105 yards and 0 touchdowns, as opposed to a ridiculous 34 catches for 440 yards and 4 touchdowns in the first 3 games of the season. Playing well 3 days after an overtime game is going to be tough, even for him, and the Falcons’ weapons in the passing game after him (Roddy White, Leonard Hankerson, Jacob Tamme) are underwhelming. Despite that, the public is all over the Falcons as mere 3.5 point favorites here. This line might seem low, but the Falcons aren’t quite as good as their 5-0 record. They haven’t really played anyone good yet and, while the Saints aren’t exactly good, the Falcons have played close games with the Eagles, Giants, and Redskins and could easily have trouble with New Orleans this week on a short week, off of an overtime game.

All that being said, I wouldn’t put money on the Saints for a few reasons. For one, they’re missing significant guys with injury as well, particularly on offense, where left tackle Terron Armstead, left guard Tom DeLito, and wide receiver Marques Colston are all out. Defensively, cornerback Damian Swann is out, while defensive end Bobby Richardson is highly questionable after not practicing all week.  The Falcons have a couple guys out too, outside linebacker Justin Durant and center Mike Person, but the guys the Saints are missing are far more important, particularly Armstead. Armstead has been one of the best left tackles in the league this year when healthy and the Saints couldn’t pass protect at all last week against Philadelphia without him. On top of that, the Saints do have a harder game than the Falcons do on deck, as they have to go to Indianapolis, while Atlanta goes to Tennessee. That could provide a little bit more of a distraction and make it a little harder to focus this week, though those games are 10 days off and this is such a big rivalry that it could easily not matter.

At this point last year, I definitely would have put money on the Saints. There was a point last year where they had won 20 straight home games (18-1-1 ATS) and went 20-2 ATS off of a loss (with Drew Brees and Sean Payton) since 2008, including 12-1 ATS at home off of a loss. However, since then, they’re just 1-6 ATS at home, 5-6 ATS off of a loss, and 3-4 ATS at home off of a loss, so those trends have certainly lost some luster. I still think the Saints are the right side, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Atlanta Falcons 24 New Orleans Saints 23

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, Eagles, NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)

Chip Kelly did everything he could to put his stamp on the Eagles this off-season, changing just about everything. They swapped quarterbacks with the Rams, trading Nick Foles for Sam Bradford. They sent running back LeSean McCoy to Buffalo for middle linebacker Kiko Alonso and added both DeMarco Murray and Ryan Matthews to replace McCoy. They got rid of veteran guards Evan Mathis and Todd Herremans, even though Mathis had a great 2014, and let Jeremy Maclin sign with the Eagles, opting to replace him with 1st round rookie Nelson Agholor. On defense, veteran linebacker Trent Cole was let go, despite a strong 2014, and the Eagles re-signed the younger Brandon Graham to be their primary rush linebacker. Plus, their top-3 cornerbacks, Cary Williams, Bradley Fletcher, and Brandon Boykin are all gone, as is safety Nate Allen. Instead, they’re secondary consists of big free agent acquisition Byron Maxwell and a bunch of spare parts and rookies.

The results really haven’t been good. A 10-6 team in both 2013 and 2014, the Eagles have started 1-3 and rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential. The defense has been good, ranking 7th in rate of moving the chains allowed, thanks to a strong front 7, but their secondary has been a problem, as Maxwell ranks as Pro Football Focus’ 9th worst ranked cornerback 4 games into a 6-year, 63 million dollar deal. The offense, meanwhile, has been a disaster, as they rank 29th in rate of moving the chains. Sam Bradford has been a clear downgrade from Foles and they’ve struggled to get anything going on the ground with either of their new running backs, thanks largely to poor offensive line play. On top of that, the Eagles will be missing both middle linebackers Kiko Alonso and Mychal Kendricks with injury in this one, which hurts. The Saints will be missing talented left tackle Terron Armstead for this one and I wouldn’t put any money on them, especially since they’re not a good road team and they have to host the Falcons in like 3 days on Thursday Night Football, but they rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential and should be able to cover here as 5 point underdogs.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, 49ers, Giants, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (1-3) at New York Giants (2-2)

The Giants have rebounded from an 0-2 start, winning the last two games and putting themselves in good position to win the wide open NFC East. Some are even pointing out that the Giants could easily be 4-0, which is true, as their losses to Atlanta and Dallas were both close, but they certainly haven’t played like a 4-0 team, ranking 19th in rate of moving the chains differential. This team does a lot of good things, but they’re missing too many key contributors with injury (William Beatty, Jason Pierre-Paul, Victor Cruz, Robert Ayers) to be a good team. They’ve been overly reliant on a +6 turnover margin, which is something that’s hard to count on in any given week.

The Giants are coming off the most impressive game of their season, a 24-10 win in Buffalo against a Bills team that was considered pretty good going into the game, but now they return home and they’ve never had much of a homefield advantage in the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era, dating back to 2004. They are 52-42 (45-49 ATS) at home since 2004 (the start of the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era), outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game, as opposed to 54-43 (59-38 ATS) on the road over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.04 points per game. The 49ers also have a huge advantage because they’re a West Coast team at night playing an East Coast team. Teams tend to cover the spread about 65% of the time in that situation because, while this is essentially a late afternoon game for the 49ers, it’s a late night game for the Giants.

All of that being said, I’m going with the Giants here. The 49ers are awful, one of the worst teams in the NFL, after all of their off-season losses. They’ve lost their last 3 games by a combined 79 points, after a random week 1 home win 20-3 over a solid Vikings team. Despite that fluky week 1 win, they’re still 31st in rate of moving the chains differential. The Giants aren’t great and don’t have a great homefield advantage, especially at night against a West Coast team, but this line is still more than reasonable. I’m not confident, but they should be the right side.

New York Giants 27 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -7

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bears, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (1-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)

The Chiefs are only 1-3, but it’s hard to blame them considering their last 3 games have all come against undefeated teams (Denver, Green Bay, and Kansas City) and they have been pretty competitive in all 3 games. The only easy game they’ve had this year was in Houston, where they won by a touchdown. That doesn’t sound terribly impressive, but that game wasn’t close until garbage time and getting a convincing win on the road, no matter who the opponent is, is still an accomplishment.

This week they get a pretty easy opponent again, the Chicago Bears, who rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential. That’s not too much worse than the Chiefs, who rank 23rd, but the Chiefs’ schedule has been a big factor in that. Besides, the Bears are incredibly banged up. They got Jay Cutler back from injury last week and he was a massive upgrade over the incompetent Jimmy Clausen, a big factor in them getting their first win of the season at home against the Raiders, but wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, wide receiver Eddie Royal, offensive tackle Jermon Bushrod, safety Antrel Rolle, and possibly outside linebacker Pernell McPhee (arguably their best player on either side of the ball) are all expected to miss this one. Kansas City, meanwhile, is basically at 100%, especially with top cornerback Sean Smith in his 2nd game back, after missing the start of the season with a suspension.

Despite that, this line isn’t that high at 9. In fact, the line has shifted from 12 to 9 from last week to this week and the public is still on Chicago, a rare instance of the public being on an underdog. I love fading huge week-to-week line movements because they’re typically an overreaction to a single week’s action, in this case, a Kansas City loss on the road against a good Cincinnati team and a last second Chicago home win over the mediocre Raiders. I also love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run. In this case, I’ll happily fade the line movement and the public and take the Chiefs.

The Bears are also in a bad spot, with a trip to Detroit, where they are expected to be 6 point underdogs, on deck. Teams are 39-59 ATS since 2012 as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs, as it’s tough for an inferior team to concentrate with another tough game on deck. The Chiefs do also have a tough game next week, as they’re expected to be 3 point underdogs in Minnesota (though they don’t have the same kind of trend working against them), and Detroit, while better than their record, isn’t a great team by any stretch of the imagination so that line could move under 6. For that reason, I don’t think there’s enough here for me to feel confident putting money on Kansas City, but I do think they should be the right side and that they should win by a comfortable amount.

Kansas City Chiefs 26 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -9

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Lions, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (3-1) at Detroit Lions (0-4)

The Lions are the league’s last remaining winless team at 0-4. Many think they should have won last week in Seattle because the refs missed a pivotal call at the end of the game, but, regardless of the outcome, they definitely got outplayed in Seattle last week, needing to rely on a +2 turnover margin and a return touchdown to even keep it close. They moved the chains at a mere 54.55% rate, while the Seahawks moved them at a 67.86% rate. On the season, they rank 24th in rate of moving the chains differential.

That suggests they’re not quite as bad as their record suggests and they’re not, especially when you take into account the brutal schedule they’ve played thus far. They started the year on the road in San Diego and Minnesota, a pair of possible playoff teams, and then week 3, when they finally got a home game, it was against Denver, another strong team. Starting the season with two road games puts a team at a serious disadvantage, not because it makes it hard to build momentum, but because teams that have their home opener week 3 usually don’t play that well that week. They cover the spread only about a third of the time and are generally less energized, as a result of all of the travelling they have to do to start the season. And then, of course, Detroit had to go to Seattle last week, one of the toughest places in the NFL to win.

Given all of that, I don’t think the Lions are going to be one of the worst teams in the league all season. They also get key defensive player DeAndre Levy back this week, after he missed the first 4 games of the season with a hip injury, and right guard Larry Warford is also expected to play, after being limited to 97 snaps thus far this season with injury. It’s not all good in injury land, as starting defensive tackles Haloti Ngata and Tyrunn Walker will both miss this week, Ngata with a week-to-week injury and Walker after being put on injured reserve with a broken ankle last week, ending his season. However, Levy returning is the biggest deal out of all of those injury developments. Things are looking up for the Lions overall.

That being said, they’re probably going to have to wait another week to get their first win, as they once again face a very tough opponent, the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals lost their first game of the season last week, at home against St. Louis, but they did win the first down battle 26 to 13 and move the chains at a higher rate than the Rams in that 2 point loss, so they definitely didn’t play badly. They only lost because they lost the turnover battle by 3 and that tends to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. Teams with a turnover margin of -3 in a game, on average, have a turnover margin of -0.1 the following week, so the Lions won’t be able to count on turnovers to help them win this game, even after winning the turnover battle in Seattle last week.

The Cardinals still rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, even after last week’s loss, but it’s important to remember that their schedule has been the opposite of Detroit’s, as they’ve faced New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco, and St. Louis. There’s a good chance that, even without any wins, the Lions are the best team they’ve faced thus far. Still, if I had to pick, I’m taking the Cardinals against the spread as 3.5 point road favorites here, though I’m not confident at all, especially with the public all over Arizona. The Lions should be able to get off the snide next week, when they host Chicago. The Lions are in a good spot with no upcoming distractions, ahead of that easy game against the Bears, but the Cardinals also are, as they head to Pittsburgh next week to take on the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers, and, like I said, if I have to pick, the Cardinals should be the right side.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (4-0) at Oakland Raiders (2-2)

The Broncos are one of six remaining undefeated teams, but haven’t been as dominant as they typically have been in the Peyton Manning era. Their matchups with Baltimore, Kansas City, and Minnesota all could have gone a different way, while their 24-12 win in Detroit wasn’t that much less of a nail biter. They rank just 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, dominating on defense, ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains allowed, but their offense has not been very good at all, ranking 24th in rate of moving the chains. Peyton Manning’s age is definitely showing in his age 39 season and their offensive line and running back play have been awful. They’re still a top team in the AFC because they have one of the most talented teams in the league and are coached by legendary defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, but this is probably overall the worst Denver team in the Peyton Manning era.

The Raiders, meanwhile, are not as bad as they usually are and rank 18th in rate of moving the chains differential. I don’t think they’re a real playoff contender or anything, as evidenced by their loss in Chicago last week and their week 1 blowout loss at home against the Bengals, but they’re definitely going to be tougher for the Broncos than they usually are. That being said, the Broncos should still be the right side here as 5 point road favorites in Oakland.

The Broncos are in a good spot because they’re projected to be big road favorites again next week in Cleveland. The early line has them favored by 5.5 points. Teams are 101-74 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, 64-44 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites, and 41-26 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you’re about to play an easy opponent, so you don’t have any real upcoming distractions. Two, you’re a really good football team. In this scenario, it’s a little bit of both. The Raiders don’t have any upcoming distractions either, heading into a bye, but usually not having an upcoming distraction benefits the better team more than the underdog. I’m not confident in the Broncos or anything, but they’re my pick.

Denver Broncos 20 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: Denver -5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-0)

Currently, the Bengals are projected to be 1.5 point underdogs in Buffalo next week, according to the early line. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are projected to be 7.5 point favorites at home for Carolina next week.  Favorites are 67-111 ATS since 2010 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites, so the Bengals are technically in a bad spot this week. On top of that, this line shifted from the Seahawks being favored by 2.5 points to Cincinnati being favored by a field goal in one week and I typically love to fade huge week-to-week line movements because they’re usually the result of overreaction to one week.

All of that being said, I think the Bengals are one of the best teams in the NFL and should be able to win this game at home, which could easily shift that line in Buffalo to favor Cincinnati and nullify that trend.  On top of that, I think that this line movement wasn’t an overreaction to one week, but was more the odds makers correcting themselves. The Bengals definitely didn’t deserve to ever be home underdogs to really anyone and even at a field goal, I think this line is too low.

Seattle is certainly not a bad team, ranking 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, better than their 2-2 record suggests, but the Bengals have played significantly better than the Seahawks this year, ranking 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, and I think are the better team. That’s not what this line, at 3 in favor of the home team Cincinnati, suggests, but I think the Bengals should be able to win this one by a field goal or more and shift next week’s line, especially with Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch set to miss his 2nd straight week with injury and talented Cincinnati safety George Iloka expected to return from a 1 week absence. I’m not confident in the Bengals, but they should be the right side.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Seattle Seahawks 17

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -3

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Pittsburgh Steelers at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, Chargers, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at San Diego Chargers (2-2)

Those who follow me know I love to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to one week. This game features one of those, as the early line had San Diego favored by 6.5 and they’re now favored by 3.5. Normally I can understand why the line movement occurred (even if I don’t necessarily agree that it should have), but this time I actually don’t understand it at all. Why would this line move 3 points in Pittsburgh’s favor? Because they went to overtime against Baltimore? Because San Diego only beat Cleveland by a field goal? That doesn’t make any sense.

The Steelers rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Chargers rank 14th, so this line would definitely make sense if Ben Roethlisberger was healthy, but he’s not and will miss his 2nd straight game after injuring his knee week 3 against St. Louis. Michael Vick will start again and hasn’t played well in Roethlisberger’s absence, completing 24 of 32 and not throwing an interception, but only producing 163 yards and a touchdown, despite having a strong supporting cast around him.

That shouldn’t be a surprise. Vick remained unsigned late into the off-season after being utterly ineffective in limited action last season, completing 52.9% of his passes for an average of 4.99 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked quarterback, despite playing just 281 snaps. No one played fewer snaps than him and graded out worse. The Jets moved the chains at a pathetic 64.44% rate in the games in which he played at least 50% of the snaps, even worse than when Geno Smith played, when they moved them at a 69.18% rate.

After the Steelers moved the chains at a 78.65% rate in their first 3 games of the season with Roethlisberger starting, they moved them at a 61.29% rate last week at home against Baltimore in Vick’s first start. Vick is also now 4-18 ATS since 2012, which is ridiculously awful, and he’s not getting better, going into his age 35 season now. He’s a massive downgrade from Roethlisberger, who was playing like arguably the best quarterback in the league before going down and this line should be at least a touchdown in San Diego, based on the difference in talent level between these two teams.

The Chargers do have their own injuries, as left guard Orlando Franklin and left tackle King Dunlap will be out for the 2nd straight game, while wide receiver Steve Johnson will join them, but they do get center Chris Watt back after a one game absence and tight end Antonio Gates back, after he missed the first 4 games of the season with suspension. Besides, their offense played fine last week against the Browns. The issue was their defense and they do have a very weak front 7, but I still like their chances of beating the Steelers by at least 4 points here in San Diego, especially with the Steelers also missing wide receiver Martavis Bryant and linebacker Ryan Shazier with injuries, in addition to Roethlisberger.

The Chargers also have a huge advantage because they’re a West Coast team at night playing an East Coast team. Teams tend to cover the spread about 65% of the time in that situation because, while this is essentially a late afternoon game for the Chargers, it’s a late night game for the Steelers. The only reason I can think for this line being so low is that the Chargers have to go to Green Bay next week, where they are expected to be 9 point underdogs, but the Steelers have to play the Cardinals next, which isn’t much easier. The Steelers are expected to be 2.5 point home underdogs in that one. There’s not even a lot of public action on the Chargers, so it’s more likely that this is just an inaccurate line by the odds makers than a trap line. With even action, I’m confident in the Chargers covering.

San Diego Chargers 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 16

Pick against the spread: San Diego -3.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, Browns, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (1-3) at Baltimore Ravens (1-3)

The Baltimore Ravens have had a tough start to their season. They played their first 2 games on the road, in Denver and Oakland, losing both. The Oakland game was one they should have won and needed to win, but there’s no shame in losing in Denver and both games were very close. Then they hosted the Bengals week 3, their only game at home thus far this season, a very tough game, not just because the Bengals are one of the best teams in the NFL, but because teams typically struggle in week 3 home openers (as a result of all the travelling they had to do to start the season) and because they had a divisional clash in Pittsburgh in 3 days on Thursday Night Football the following week.

The Ravens lost another excruciatingly close game against the Bengals week 3 and then won an excruciatingly close overtime game in Pittsburgh last week, against the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers. You can make the argument that the Ravens should be 0-4, but you can just as easily make the argument that the Ravens should be 4-0 with wins over Denver and Cincinnati, two currently undefeated teams.

In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, the Ravens rank 26th (actually worse than the Browns, who rank 25th). I don’t think that’s representative of how good the Ravens are though and it’s important to remember that it’s early and they’ve dealt with a lot of difficult situations. They aren’t the same team that finished 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014, but I think their actual talent level is much closer to that than to where they currently fall in those rankings. Meanwhile, the Browns are playing very similarly to last season (when they finished 26th), so I think their current ranking is much more representative of them than the Ravens’ is.

Part of the reason why the Ravens aren’t as good this season is injuries (in addition to off-season losses of Haloti Ngata, Pernell McPhee, and Torrey Smith) and the Ravens are incredibly thin in the receiving corps for this one, missing expected starting tight end Crockett Gilmore and expected starting wide receivers Steve Smith and Breshad Perriman with injury from a receiving corps that was thin to begin with. The Smith injury is new, but Gilmore’s and Perriman’s aren’t and this line did seem to move to compensate for the Smith injury. The Ravens were 8.5 point favorites in the early line last week, but are only 6.5 point favorites now.

Conversely, I don’t think the line appropriately compensated for Eugene Monroe’s expected return from a concussion that knocked him out week 1. James Hurst had been playing at left tackle in his absence and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked offensive tackle through 4 weeks. Monroe’s return could really help an offensive line that was really good last season, but hasn’t been thus far this season. Meanwhile, the Browns are expected to be without talented safety Tashaun Gipson in this one, after being relatively injury free thus far this season.

This is the easiest game of the Ravens’ season thus far and I think they have a good chance to beat the Browns by quite a bit and cover this 6.5 point line. Not only is this is easiest opponent of their season, but they have no upcoming distractions with a trip to San Francisco on deck, while the Browns have to host the Broncos next week in arguably the toughest game of their season, a game in which they are expected to be 5.5 point underdogs. Teams are 66-111 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, 35-76 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, and 19-50 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you’re about to host a very tough opponent, serving as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. With the Browns, I think it’s both. In addition, home favorites are 93-61 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites when their opponent will next be home underdogs.

On top of that, The Ravens are typically a much better team at home than on the road in the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era and they’re in a much better spot against a much easier opponent than their first home game. They are 47-12 at home since 2008, outscoring their opponents by an average of 10.08 points per game, as opposed to 36-36 on the road, outscoring their opponents by an average of just 1.00 points per game. They’re also 22-13 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of a touchdown or less over that time period, as they are here.

It does help the Browns that they are in their 2nd straight road game, after losing in San Diego last week. Teams are 118-84 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 96-58 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 199-206 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.40 points per game, as opposed to 291-401 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.93 points per game. That being said, as long as this line is less than a touchdown, I’m still confident enough to put money down on Baltimore.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -6.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]