Month: October 2015

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at Washington Redskins (1-2)

Despite being without running back DeMarco Murray, middle linebacker Mychal Kendricks, middle linebacker Kiko Alonso, and defensive end Cedric Thornton, 4 above average starters, the Eagles were able to upset the Jets in New York as 3.5 point underdogs last week. This week, they get Kendricks and Murray back, but I don’t love the Eagles chances of pulling off another win for a number of reasons, this time in Washington as 3 point favorites.

For one, the Eagles are still banged up. Alonso and Thornton might not have been missed too much last week and Murray and Alonso might be back, but it’s still not good to be missing two talented starters from your defense. You’re not guaranteed to be able to overcome that every week just because you were able to do so one time, as the Eagles did last week. The Eagles were also really reliant on turnovers and a return touchdown last week, things that are hard to rely on every week, winning the turnover battle by 3 and returning a punt for a touchdown in the 7 point win. Teams that have a turnover margin of 3+ have a turnover margin on average of +0.1 the following week. The Redskins have injury issues too, missing wide receiver DeSean Jackson, cornerback DeAngelo Hall, and middle linebacker Perry Riley, and possibly cornerback Chris Culliver, but I still think the Eagles are missing more.

The Eagles are also in a bad spot, as a result of last week’s win, as favorites are just 4-19 ATS since 1989 during week 4 after winning their first game of the season in week 3. Despite that and the fact that they probably aren’t quite deserving of being field goal favorites here in Washington, where the Redskins have played decently this season, the public is still all over the Eagles, as Philadelphia is one of the most heavily bet sides of the week. I like fading the public whenever it makes sense and I think it does here. I wouldn’t put money on the Redskins, unless we were getting 3.5 or 4 points and even then I still maybe wouldn’t, but they should be the right side. The only reason I wouldn’t put money on the Redskins, besides their injuries, is because they have the harder game next week, going to Atlanta, while Philadelphia just hosts the Saints, but it’s still enough to scare me off.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Redskins 23

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (3-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)

Typically, the better team not only prevails but also covers when they don’t have any distractions on the horizon and the Panthers are in a good situation as a result, as they are 3.5 point road favorites in Tampa Bay this week, ahead of their week 5 bye. Road favorites of 3+ points going into a bye are 37-23 ATS since 2002. Tampa Bay also has no distractions on the horizon, with Jacksonville in town next week, but typically not having a distraction benefits the better team more. The Panthers have also typically done well against weaker opponents in the Cam Newton/Ron Rivera era, since 2012, going 18-12 ATS against teams with a losing record, including 11-5 ATS on the road.

On top of that, the Panthers have played drastically better than the Buccaneers this season, ranking 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 32nd for the Buccaneers. I don’t like using that statistic quite this early in the season because there aren’t enough data points, but it’s consistent with what we saw last season, when the Panthers finished 14th and the Buccaneers finished 30th. The Buccaneers thought they improved themselves this off-season, adding guys like Jameis Winston, Henry Melton, and Bruce Carter, but Winston has struggled mightily as a rookie, Carter has already lost his starting job, and injuries have wreaked havoc on this team, as they are missing cornerback Johnthan Banks, center Evan Smith, tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and possibly left tackle Donovan Smith with injuries for this one. Meanwhile, top defensive player Gerald McCoy is at less than 100% with a shoulder problem. The Panthers are missing Luke Kuechly for the 3rd straight week with a concussion, but they’ve still played well without him, while the Buccaneers have not played well at all this season.

The Buccaneers have also never really had much of a homefield advantage. Since 2009, they are 14-35 at home, getting outscored by an average of 6.20 points per game, as opposed to 17-33 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 6.12 points per game. On top of that, the Buccaneers are just 15-33 ATS at home over that time period and have already gotten destroyed at home by the Titans by the score of 42-14 week 1. They haven’t won at home since week 14 of 2013. This line seems too low and I’m happy to lay the points.

Carolina Panthers 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (3-0)

No other team has been as successful in the first 3 weeks of the season as the Arizona Cardinals. Not only do they rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, they also rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains and 1st in rate of moving the chains allowed. Of course, they’ve also had arguably the league’s easiest schedule, beating New Orleans (0-3), Chicago (0-3), and San Francisco (1-2), none of whom seem likely to even sniff the post-season. The Rams might be the toughest opponent they’ve had yet and they’ve not very good either, 1-2 and also unlikely to sniff the post-season. I’m curious to see if the Cardinals, who are playing drastically better than they did last season, can keep it up once the schedule gets tougher, but we won’t find out this week.

The Cardinals are only favored by a touchdown here, despite the fact that they’ve won their first 3 games by an average of 25.67 points per game, winning each game by at least 12 points. As a result, the public is all over them, as the Cardinals as the most heavily backed team this week thus far. Typically I like to fade the public on heavy leans because they always lose money in the long run, but they might have the right side in this one. In addition to being significantly inferior to the Cardinals, the Rams are also in a terrible spot with another tough game, a trip to Green Bay, on deck. Teams are just 70-95 ATS since 2010 as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs again and the Rams are expected to be 9 point underdogs next week. Arizona, meanwhile, goes to 0-3 Detroit next. I’m not that confident, but Arizona should be the right side.

Arizona Cardinals 24 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -7

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at Miami Dolphins in London: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (2-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-2) in London

The Dolphins fell flat on their face in their home opener last week, losing 41-14 to the Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins, for some reason, haven’t had much of a homefield advantage in recent years, going 13-12, getting outscored by an average of 0.04 points per game, at home, while going 12-15, getting outscored by an average of 2.08 points per game, on the road, since 2012, the start of the Ryan Tannehill/Joe Philbin era. Maybe that’s why they’ve agreed to give up one of their Miami games to play a game in London as the “home team” this week. They played in London as the road team last year and blew the Raiders out by the score of 38-14. I think having that experience of travelling across the ocean to play in London, which the Jets don’t really have, gives them an advantage.

The Dolphins have been the biggest disappointment in the league, in my opinion. They were arguably the best non-playoff team in the league last season, finishing 10th in rate of moving the chains differential. I thought they improved on the offensive line, improved in the receiving corps, and improved on defense, thanks to the massive addition of Ndamukong Suh, this off-season. They still had some issues at guard, cornerback, and safety, but I thought they could be a top-5 team. That hasn’t happened, as they are coming off of an embarrassing home loss and are 1-2, ranking 24th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite an easy schedule.

The Dolphins might not ever reach their potential until they get rid of Joe Philbin and this coaching staff and, if that’s true, it’s important that they get rid of them soon, to save this season. With 9 players scheduled to take up a combined 101 million on their 2016 cap, this team went all in on this season and will be in salary cap hell for a few off-seasons afterwards as a result. They need to get results on the field as soon as possible. I still think they’re talented enough to turn it around though and I like their chances as 2 point underdogs here against the Jets. The Dolphins were in a very similar situation last year going into this game and turned their season around.

The Jets have had a solid start to their season going 2-1 and ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, after ranking 28th a season ago. I do think they’re an improved team, thanks to several off-season additions, including Darrelle Revis and Brandon Marshall, but also Ryan Fitzpatrick. Ryan Fitzpatrick has continued to play solidly, as he did in Tennessee in 2013 and Houston in 2014, and might be the best quarterback they’ve had since Chad Pennington was healthy. They’re also getting Eric Decker and Chris Ivory back this week, after neither played last week with injuries in their first loss of the season. I still think the Dolphins are more talented, despite what the first 3 weeks have shown, and I like them in this spot, so they should be able to cover, but I’m not confident, especially with left tackle Branden Albert once again out with a hamstring problem.

Miami Dolphins 20 New York Jets 17 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +2

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (2-1) at Denver Broncos (3-0)

The Broncos are one of seven 3-0 teams in the league right now, but they only rank 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, worst among undefeated teams. Their defense has been great, improving on a strong 2014 in their first season with Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator, but their offense ranks 25th in rate of moving the chains, as the offensive line has struggled mightily, CJ Anderson has looked slow, and Peyton Manning, while still capable, has looked every bit of 39 years old. The Vikings, meanwhile, are 2-1 and rank 19th in rate of moving the chains differential, after winning back-to-back home games against Detroit and San Diego.

Given that, this line at 6.5 might seem too high, but the Broncos are also in such a good spot that I’m actually going with the Broncos this week, especially without a huge public lean on Minnesota. The Broncos go to Oakland next week, so they don’t have any real distractions on the horizon. The Vikings don’t either, going into a bye, but the better team usually prevails and covers without a distraction on the horizon. The Broncos are projected to be 6.5 point favorites in Oakland next week. Teams are 105-65 ATS since 2010 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again and teams are 64-43 ATS before being 4+ point favorites, 41-26 ATS before being 6+ point favorites, and 27-12 ATS before being 7+ point road favorites since 2012. As long as this line is under a touchdown, the Broncos should be the right side, but I wouldn’t put money on it.

Denver Broncos 23 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against the spread: Denver -6.5

Confidence: Low

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Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-3)

At one point, the Saints had won 20 straight home games, covering in all but 2 of them, but now they’ve lost 6 straight home games, all as favorites. They are favored here again at home, though only by 3.5 points, against a Dallas team that is so banged up right now and just lost pretty easily at home to an average at best Atlanta team. Not only are they missing Tony Romo and Dez Bryant from an offense that had next to no injuries last season, but they’re also missing rookie defensive end Randy Gregory and suspended free agent acquisition Greg Hardy, though they will get defensive end Jeremy Mincey back from a concussion this week after he missed last week’s game against Atlanta. This line isn’t giving the Saints nearly the same respect at home as they are used to, which increases their chances of covering.

The Saints are also getting a few key players back from injury, as Drew Brees, who missed his first game with injury in over a decade last week, returns, as do key defensive backs Jairus Byrd and Keenan Lewis, who will be making their season debuts. Guard Jahri Evans will miss his 2nd straight game with a knee injury and they made a weird move by sending starting defensive tackle Akiem Hicks to the Patriots for a backup tight end and, after a rough off-season, this team is still a far cry from even last year’s team, but I think they have a good chance of beating the Cowboys by at least 4 and covering here. The Cowboys are 18-8 ATS as road underdogs since 2010, but it’s unclear how the loss of the starting quarterback will affect that.

It definitely helps the Saints that the Cowboys are in a terrible spot, hosting New England next week, against whom they will are expected to be 8.5 point home underdogs. Teams are 35-74 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point home underdogs, 19-49 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs, and 12-28 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough game coming up that serves as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. I think it’s probably both in this situation.

The Saints have to go to Philadelphia next week, which isn’t easy, but they’re still in a much better situation. On top of that, Drew Brees is 24-8 ATS since 2008 off of a loss as long as Sean Payton is coaching, including 16-5 ATS at home off a loss. He’s only 4-6 ATS off of a loss over the past 2 seasons, including 2-4 ATS at home off of a loss, so that trend has definitely lost some luster too, like their homefield advantage, but the Saints should be the right side here. I wouldn’t put money on it though.

New Orleans Saints 27 Dallas Cowboys 21

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3.5

Confidence: Low

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New York Giants at Buffalo Bills: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (1-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-1)

The Bills have had a great start to their season. Their defense has been as good as advertised, with the exception of a game against New England, who no one has been able to stop this season, while their offense has exceeded expectations thanks to the emergence of quarterback Tyrod Taylor and rookie running back Karlos Williams, as well as the addition of Richie Incognito in free agency. In addition to the loss to New England, the Bills have beaten both the Dolphins and Colts easily.

I didn’t think Taylor would play that well because he fell to the 6th round in 2011 and didn’t make his first career start until his 5th year in the league this year. Typically, guys like that don’t have much success because it’s a league where having a quarterback is so important that a starting caliber quarterback doesn’t usually fall through the cracks like this. I sided with the odds, which is usually the right move, but he’s beaten the odds so far, completing 74.4% of his passes for an average of 9.15 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. It’ll be interesting to see if this can continue. It’s only been 3 games and the league could still figure him out, but he’s been good so far.

The Bills are pretty banged up this week, missing 4 starters, LeSean McCoy, Sammy Watkins, Aaron Williams, and John Miller with injury. The Giants are banged up too, missing Robert Ayers, Jason Pierre-Paul, Victor Cruz, and William Beatty with injury, but they’ve been missing those guys for most of the season. They’ve also led the league in adjusted games lost to injury in each of the last 2 seasons. The Bills’ injuries are new. The Giants are also typically a better team on the road than they are at home. They are 52-42 (45-49 ATS) at home since 2004 (the start of the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era), outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game, as opposed to 53-43 (58-38 ATS) on the road over that time period, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game.

The Giants are also in great spot with no upcoming distractions, hosting the 49ers next week. Teams unsurprisingly tend to cover in these spots, going 115-79 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008. The Bills go to Tennessee next week, which isn’t too hard, but I like the Giants’ spot more because they don’t have to go on the road next week. On top of that, week 4 underdogs who just won their first game of the season week 3 are 32-10 ATS since 1989. I wish this line was higher than 5 (though the odds makers might be trying to keep the line low to so there aren’t big sharp bets on Buffalo) and I can’t be too confident with the line this low, but the Giants should be the right side.

Buffalo Bills 16 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +5

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-0)

I had the Falcons as one of the least talented teams in the league on paper going into the season, but they’ve started 3-0. What’s gone differently? Well, the Matt Ryan to Julio Jones connection hasn’t just been great, it’s been record breaking, as Jones has caught 34 passes (most in the first 3 games of the season in NFL history) for 440 yards and 4 touchdowns. The offensive line and running game have also performed better than I expected, but, other than that, not much.

They still don’t have a good 2nd option in the passing game. They haven’t exactly needed one yet, but Jones probably won’t catch the 181 passes for he’s on pace for (which would beat the current single season record by 38) so lack of a 2nd option is still somewhat of a concern. The defense, meanwhile, has still been awful, aside from top cornerback Desmond Trufant. The Falcons are 3-0, but they could have easily lost against both Philadelphia and the Giants and then got the Cowboys when they were down, missing both Tony Romo and Dez Bryant, along with a bunch of guys at defensive end. Their awful defense still allowed the depleted Cowboys’ offense to move the ball up and down the field with ease for most of the game.

However, the Falcons could still easily move to 5-0 without breaking a sweat or really playing that well, hosting the Texans this week and then the Redskins next week. Facing the NFC East, the AFC South, and playing in the week NFC South, the Falcons are going to end up having one of the easiest schedules in the league this season. Division rival Carolina, who has also had a very easy schedule, is also 3-0 without being very talented. The Falcons are in a great spot here with another easy game on deck. Teams are 105-65 ATS since 2010 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again, as the better team usually takes care of business with no upcoming distractions. The Texans, meanwhile, have a tough game on deck as they host the Indianapolis Colts in a few days on Thursday Night Football.

I still don’t love taking an average at best Atlanta team as 6.5 point favorites that much. The Texans aren’t very good either, but this line is still probably too high, especially since it’s moved from 3.5 to 6.5 in a week. That feels like an overreaction to Atlanta being 3-0, though I do think the line was too low to begin with. Texans are also in a good spot, as week 4 underdogs who just won their first game of the season week 3 are 32-10 ATS since 1989. The Texans also could be getting both Duane Brown and Arian Foster back from injury. It’s unclear how much either will play or how effective either will be in their first game back, but it’s definitely a benefit to have arguably your two best offensive players back on the field. I’m ultimately taking the Texans and fading the public, who is heavy on the Falcons, but I’m not confident.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Houston +6.5

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (1-2) at San Diego Chargers (1-2)

The Chargers are 1-2, but their losses both came on the road against Cincinnati and Minnesota, a pair of solid teams. They still rank 19th in rate of moving the chains differential, decent considering they’ve had a tougher schedule than most teams. They finished last season 13th and I thought they’d be even better than that this season, a goal that is certainly still in reach as the schedule gets easier. A borderline playoff team in 2013 and 2014, the Chargers’ secondary is significantly better than it was in 2013 thanks to the additions of Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett, while their offense should be significantly healthier than it was in 2014, when they led the league in adjusted games lost to injury.

The Chargers schedule does get easier this week as a mediocre at best Browns team comes to town. The Browns have a talented defense and a strong offensive line, but next to no offensive skill position players and a bunch of guys who are underperforming defensively. Their defense has the talent to turn it around and could do so this week, but they’re still an easier matchup for San Diego than anyone else they’ve played this season.

The Chargers’ offensive line is banged up as they’ll likely be missing 3 starters, left tackle King Dunlap, left guard Orlando Franklin, and center Chris Watt with injury, while right guard DJ Fluker is still working back from an ankle sprain, but they’re back at home now and also get both Flowers and Verrett back from injury. Flowers missed last week’s game in Minnesota, while Verrett was knocked out after 20 snaps with a foot problem. Both should start and play well this week, cancelling out some of their injuries on the offensive line. Despite their record, they definitely deserve to be favored by at least the 7 points they’re favored by here.

They’re also in a much better spot here than the Browns. While the Browns have another tough game on deck, a trip to Baltimore to play the division rival Ravens, against whom they are expected to be 8.5 point underdogs, the Chargers get to stay home and take on the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers, a game in which they are expected to be 6.5 point favorites. Teams are 105-65 ATS since 2010 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again, and, conversely, teams are just 70-95 ATS since 2010 as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs again.

Combining those two trends, 6+ point favorites are 34-13 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point favorites again when their opponent will next be 6+ point underdogs. The Chargers are the significantly better team and should take care of business without any upcoming distractions against a Browns team that has a big upcoming distraction. The Chargers’ offensive line injury situation scared me off of making this my Pick of the Week, but I’d still put money on the Chargers.

San Diego Chargers 23 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against the spread: San Diego -7

Confidence: High

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Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (3-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)

The 49ers have lost their last 2 games by margins of 25 (43-18) and 40 (47-7) respectively and now they face Green Bay, one of seven 3-0 teams remaining and arguably the best team in the NFL. The Packers should be able to win by double digits and cover this 9.5 point spread with ease right? Well, the public seems to think so, going heavy on the Packers this week, but, as is often the case, I’m going the other way. I love to fade heavy public leans whenever it makes sense because the public always loses money in the wrong run and doing so makes sense here.

For one thing, the 49ers’ two big losses were both on the road, but now they return home, where they looked very good week 1 in a 20-3 win over a solid Minnesota team. That was only one game, but their huge losses in Pittsburgh and Arizona were only two games and I feel like people probably just ignore their strong week 1 performance at home in favor of focusing on their two weak performances on the road. The 49ers aren’t a very good team, but they’re better than they’ve been the last two weeks.

Teams tend to bounce back off of back-to-back losses of 21+ anyway, going 41-25 ATS in that spot since 2002. On top of that, teams are 50-25 ATS since 2002 off of a loss by 35+. That’s because teams tend to be underrated, overlooked, and embarrassed off of awful showings like that. I can’t tell you for certain that the Packers will overlook them a little bit or that the 49ers will play harder trying to avenge two awful losses, but it does make sense that both sides would do that and I do think the 49ers are undervalued here as 9.5 point underdogs. This line was just 6.5 a week ago in the early line and a 3 point shift across the key number of 7 is a significant shift. Not only do I love fading the public, but I especially love fading the public when doing so also means I’m fading a huge line movement. Huge line movements like that from week-to-week are usually brought about by overreactions to a single week of play.

The Packers, meanwhile, are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. While they are 39-7, outscoring opponents by an average of 12.04 points per game, at home, they are just 26-20 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of just 1.28 points per game. They barely covered as 7 point favorites in Chicago earlier this year in their only other road game this season, winning by just 8, after trailing for a large portion of the game against a Bears team that is comparable to this San Francisco team. The Packers are also now more banged up than they were in that game week 1. They’re still missing wide receiver Jordy Nelson, but now they’re also missing right tackle Bryan Bulaga and likely both safety Morgan Burnett and Nelson’s replacement Davante Adams with injuries.

The Packers have had great performances at home over the past 2 weeks, but they’re far being from that same powerhouse on the road and they could easily find themselves in another battle on the road with an inferior team, this time one that is fighting for their pride and also essentially fighting for their season. It’s also worth mentioning that the 49ers have beaten the Packers in 4 straight contests. This is far from the same San Francisco team, but Green Bay defensive coordinator Dom Capers is still around and he’s never been able to figure out Colin Kaepernick’s dual threat abilities.

The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because Green Bay has another easy game on deck, hosting the Rams, against whom they are expected to be 9 point favorites. Teams are 105-65 ATS since 2010 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again, as they have no upcoming distractions. Meanwhile, the 49ers play the Giants on the road next week and are expected to be 7 point underdogs in that one. Teams are just 70-95 ATS as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs again. However, the Giants aren’t very good either and I really don’t think the 49ers will overlook the Packers just because they’re facing the Giants next week. A solid showing by the 49ers here this week could also easily drop that line closer to 4 or 5, which is where it should be. I’d still put money on San Francisco this week.

Green Bay Packers 24 San Francisco 49ers 20

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +9.5

Confidence: Medium

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