Month: December 2015

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8)

The Colts lost in Pittsburgh 45-10 last week, but still rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 28th. Given that, I think we’re getting at least some line value with the Colts as 1 point underdogs. That’s no surprise, considering teams are 51-26 ATS off of a loss by 35 or more points since 2002. Teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed off of a loss like that. I don’t expect the Jaguars to overlook the Colts, considering the Colts still lead the division, but the Colts definitely seem undervalued.

They could also easily be embarrassed after last week’s debacle against a tough team and get back on track against a weaker team this week. The Colts generally do well against weaker teams, particularly divisional opponents in what has been arguably the weakest division in football over the past few years. Since Chuck Pagano took over in 2012, the Colts are 16-5 ATS against the division, 19-7 ATS against opponents with a losing record, and 13-3 ATS against divisional opponents with a losing record.

It also helps the Colts that they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 126-91 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 103-62 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 221-219 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.37 points per game, as opposed to 311-431 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.83 points per game.

The Colts are banged up, missing quarterback Andrew Luck, left tackle Anthony Castonzo, and middle linebacker Jerrell Freeman. Luck has been missing for a while and wasn’t playing well even when on the field, so that one doesn’t matter too much, but Castonzo is missing his 4th straight and Freeman his 2nd straight and they’ve both been missed in their absence. I still am taking the Colts for a money play, but I really wish we were getting a field goal with them.

Indianapolis Colts 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +1

Confidence: Medium

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San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 14 NFL Picks, 49ers, Browns, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (4-8) at Cleveland Browns (2-10)

The Browns have the league’s worst record, so the public seems to be confused why they’re favored here, at home against the 49ers, as the public is all over the visitor. I’m confused why they’re not favored by more. They were favored by a field goal a week ago on the early line. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense. It makes sense to do both here, so the Browns are an intriguing side.

They’re a better team than the 49ers, ranking 30th, as opposed to 32nd for San Francisco. That might not seem like a big difference, but the 49ers are so far into last place that the Browns are closer to 17th than last. Given that, it doesn’t make any sense why the line moved off of 3 (even with talented guard Joel Bitonio now out for the season with the Browns), considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal or less. I actually think the Browns should be favored by more than a field goal and that the 49ers overtime win in Chicago was a fluke, so, while teams are 56-44 ATS since 2002 after winning on the road in overtime, we’re still getting enough line value with the Browns to compensate.

The Browns are in a tough spot with a trip to Seattle on deck, for a game in which the early line has them as 13.5 point road underdogs. Teams are 88-145 ATS since 2008 before being double digit underdogs, including 17-31 ATS as favorites. However, the 49ers also have a very tough game on deck, as the early line has them as 7 point underdogs at home for the Bengals next week. Teams are 42-88 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs, since 2008. As long as the line stays under 3, the Browns should be the right side.

Cleveland Browns 19 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -1.5

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 14 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (4-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Saints 26-19 as 10 point underdogs in New Orleans earlier this year. However, there are two reasons why the Saints could easily get revenge. For one, they’re in a great spot as divisional road underdogs are 54-31 ATS in a same season regular season rematch against a team they previously lost to as divisional home favorites, since 2002. Revenge is far from uncommon in divisional matchups similar to this one. Secondly, the Buccaneers have never had much of a homefield advantage, as they are 18-35 ATS at home since 2009.

The Buccaneers are also in a bad spot, as they are expected to be road underdogs in St. Louis next week, while the Saints will be home favorites against the Lions. Favorites (like the Buccaneers) are 98-167 ATS before being underdogs (as they will be next week), if their opponent will next be favorites (like the Saints will be next week). However, the Buccaneers are only one point underdogs in St. Louis on the early line next week, so they could easily up being road favorites and the logic doesn’t really hold up either way because the Rams aren’t good enough for the Buccaneers to get caught looking forward to them. However, the Buccaneers do have to play again in 4 days on Thursday Night Football and that hurts them, as favorites are 47-70 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. With the Buccaneers favored by 5 points and about 3 in 10 games decided by 4 or fewer points, I’m confident putting money on the Saints.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 New Orleans Saints 30

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +5

Confidence: Medium

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Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (7-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-8)

The Seahawks are just 7-5, but they’ve lost to tough opponents like the Packers, Bengals, Cardinals, and Panthers (all 4 losses were within 10 points) and they’ve won 5 of their last 6. The Seahawks are relatively healthy right now. They’re missing defensive tackle Jordan Hill and running back Marshawn Lynch, but Hill isn’t that important and rookie phenom Thomas Rawls (5.57 YPC) has run much better than Lynch this season (3.76 YPC), as Lynch has been banged up all year. They once again seem to have hit their stride late in the season, as they have in every year of the Pete Carroll era (since 2011). They are 24-6 ATS in the last 8 games of the regular season over that time period and they’re in a good spot to cover again this week.

While the Seahawks host the Browns next week, against whom they’ll be favored by 13.5 points, according to the early line, the Ravens host the Chiefs, against whom they’ll be underdogs of 5 points. Road favorites are 90-65 ATS before being favored again when their opponent will next be underdogs, since 2012. Going even further into it, favorites of 6+ (like the Seahawks this week) before being favorites of 6+ again (like the Seahawks next week) are 80-42 ATS since 2012, as superior teams tend to take care of business without an upcoming distractions. On the Ravens’ side, teams are 45-84 ATS before being home favorites of 4+and 23-55 ATS before being home favorites of 6+, since 2012. On top of this, road favorites off of a road win (like the Seahawks) are 45-32 ATS since 2008, as long as they are in their 2nd of two road games.

All of that being said, this line is way too high at 12. That’s a major shift from last week, when the Seahawks were favored by just 4.5 on the early line. I love fading significant line movements whenever they make sense as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. The line movement does make some sense. The Seahawks are coming off of a huge victory (38-7 in Minnesota). and the Ravens are pretty banged up, missing quarterback Matt Schaub, left tackle Eugene Monroe, and tight end Crockett Gillmore (in addition to all of the major players they have on injured reserve like quarterback Joe Flacco, running back Justin Forsett, wide receiver Breshad Perriman, wide receiver Steve Smith, tight end Dennis Pitta, and outside linebacker Terrell Suggs).

Jimmy Clausen will start for the Ravens, after being signed mid-season from the Bears. He started for the Bears in Seattle earlier this year, in Jay Cutler’s absence, and the Bears picked up just 7 first downs in that one, not a surprise, considering Clausen is one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. He doesn’t have much talent around him and I don’t expect the Ravens to move the ball easily, but the Ravens’ defense has played well this season, especially of late. They rank 12th in rate of moving the chains allowed, despite the injury to Suggs and off-season losses of Haloti Ngata and Pernell McPhee. That’s a big part of the reason why the Ravens haven’t lost by more than 8 all season, a trend I could definitely see them continuing this week. The Seahawks rank 6th in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Ravens rank 22nd and, even as banged up as they are, they still should be the right side when getting this many points. I just can’t bring myself to put money on it.

Seattle Seahawks 16 Baltimore Ravens 6

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +12

Confidence: Low

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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San Diego Chargers (3-9) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-5)

The Chargers are just 3-9, one of the worst records in the NFL, but rank 14th in rate of moving the chains differential. How can that be? Well, their record is largely the result of a 3-5 record in games decided by a touchdown (3-6 in games decided by 8 points or fewer), a -8 turnover margin, a -5 return touchdown margin, a -8.2 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -3.7 net punt margin. On the season, they’ve actually outgained their opponents. None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team, but rather that they have the framework of a decent team and just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 7 of 12 games and could easily be 5-7, 6-6, or even 7-5.

Because of this, I’ve been putting money on them pretty religiously of late, but that’s been a mistake because they’ve been at home in 4 of their last 6 games. The Chargers have had basically no homefield advantage this season. They seem to have no fans in San Diego, so their stadium has been overrun with visiting fans pretty much every game this year, meaning they essentially have to play 16 road games this season. I feel bad for the few Chargers fans who do show up because they’re going to lose their team, but the Chargers have a borderline obligation to move up to Los Angeles if this continues. It’s not fair to the team to not have any true home games and it also really hurts their chances of signing key free agents. The Chargers are 1-6 ATS at home this season. I should have known earlier in the season not to bet them at home, but I know now and better late than never.

On the road is a different story. The Chargers have covered their last 3 road games and, while they’re 3-2 ATS on the road overall this season, one of their non-covers was a 5 point loss as 3 point underdogs in Cincinnati against the Bengals, who turned out to be one of the best teams in the league. The Chargers have just one double digit road loss this season and, if they can keep it close on the road against the Bengals and Packers (two teams the Chiefs have lost to), they should be able to keep it close in Kansas City.

Given all of that, this line is way too high at 10.5. The line was actually 8 last week, but it has since shifted and I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. The public is still on the Chiefs though because they remember the Chiefs’ 33-3 win in San Diego a few weeks ago. It was a bad loss, but that was the Chargers’ worst performance of the season (and arguably the Chiefs’ best), so it’s important not to focus on that game too much, especially since we know that the game being in San Diego isn’t really an advantage for the Chargers. The Chargers are also in a great spot in this one, hosting the lowly Dolphins next week, a game in which the Chargers are expected to be favored. Double digit underdogs are 54-32 ATS since 2002 before being favorites.

The Chargers are banged up in this one, missing wide receivers Steve Johnson and Dontrelle Inman, defensive end Corey Liuget, and cornerback Brandon Flowers, but they’ve been banged up all season. The Chargers’ offense hasn’t been the same since losing top wide receiver Keenan Allen, but the Chiefs are banged up right now too, missing safety Husain Abdullah, defensive end Mike DeVito, and, most importantly, outside linebacker Justin Houston. Houston is one of the best edge rushers in the league and the Chiefs defense did not look the same without him in Oakland last week. The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because the Chiefs are favored by 5 on the early line in Baltimore next week and teams are 75-51 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites and 46-30 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites, since 2012. The Chargers are the right side though.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 San Diego Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: San Diego +10.5

Confidence: High

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Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (5-7) at Chicago Bears (5-7)

The Bears rank just 24th in rate of moving the chains, but have been better when Jay Cutler has been healthy this season. In Cutler’s 10 starts, they’ve moved the chains at a 71.60% rate, as opposed to 56.25% in the 2 games Cutler missed his injury. Granted, those two games Cutler missed were against Seattle and Arizona, arguably the two toughest defenses they’ve faced, so they probably wouldn’t have had much success either way, but this is just the Bears’ 6th game with Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, and Alshon Jeffery all healthy so they are probably more talented than their rank in rate of moving the chains suggests.

The Bears rank 15th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite a below average offense, because of an above average defense that ranks 10th in rate of moving the chains allowed. Vic Fangio has done a fantastic job turning this once awful unit around in a hurry in his first season as defensive coordinator. However, they’re expected to be without outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, who is having a borderline All-Pro caliber season in his first year in Chicago, for this one, which really hurts.

They’re also missing tight end Martellus Bennett and wide receiver Marquess Wilson, which will make it easier for defenses to focus on Alshon Jeffery. The Redskins rank 23rd in rate of moving the chains differential and have a couple injuries of their own (cornerback Chris Culliver, defensive end Stephen Paea, and middle linebacker Perry Riley), but none of those are that major and about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less so I don’t think the Bears deserve to be favored by 3.5 here, especially considering they have just 2 wins by more than a field goal and one win by more than four points all season.

The Bears are also in a tough spot, with a trip to Minnesota on deck. With their season essentially over, the Bears could get caught looking past the Redskins to the division rival Vikings. The Redskins, meanwhile, host the Bills next week, an easier game, and one in which they’re expected to be favored. Favorites (like the Bears) are 98-167 ATS before being underdogs (as they will be next week) if their opponent will next be favorites (like the Redskins will be next week). I like the Redskins a good amount.

Chicago Bears 20 Washington Redskins 19

Pick against the spread: Washington +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (6-6) at Carolina Panthers (12-0)

The Falcons have lost 5 straight games and 6 of 7 since starting 5-0, to drop them down to 6-6. They still rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, but it has to be mentioned that the Falcons have played arguably the league’s easiest schedule thus far and have still been only able to put up overall average results. Their toughest opponents have been the likes of the Saints, Giants, Colts, Vikings, and Eagles and the Panthers are about a touchdown better than all of those teams.

The Panthers come into this game ranking 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, against a tougher schedule that has included Seattle and Green Bay, and should be favored by at least double digits against a mediocre Falcons team that has not been playing good football of late. I had the Falcons as one of the least talented teams in the league coming into the year. They shocked a lot of people with their 5-0 start, including me, but they didn’t beat anyone of note during that stretch, won just 2 games by more than a touchdown, and have played awful since, with their only other win coming by 3 against a Tennessee team that was missing quarterback Marcus Mariota.

Making matters worse for them is the fact that the Panthers don’t have any upcoming distractions, as they head to the Giants next week, where they’re expected to be 3.5 point favorites, according to the early line. Teams are 114-89 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites and 75-51 ATS over that same time period before being 4+ point road favorites. The Falcons don’t have any upcoming distractions either, going to Jacksonville next week, but not having any distractions tends to benefit the better team more and the Panthers should be able to win by at least two scores. As long as this line is under double digits, I have no problem putting money on the Panthers.

Carolina Panthers 27 Atlanta Falcons 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina -9

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at New York Jets: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (3-9) at New York Jets (7-5)

The Titans are coming off of a win, their 3rd of the season and an impressive offensive performance in a 42-39 victory. Despite having one of the worst records in the league for the 2nd straight year, the Titans are above the worst teams in the league in rate of moving the chains differential, coming in at 25th. They’ve also been significantly better offensively with Marcus Mariota healthy, as he is now. In the 2 games he missed with injury, they moved the chains at a 57.41% rate, as opposed to 73.68% in his 10 starts. However, the Titans are far from healthy right now, as wide receiver Kendall Wright and outside linebacker Derrick Morgan, key players on both sides of the ball, will join starting cornerback Jason McCourty, who is on injured reserve, on the sideline.

The Jets, meanwhile, are essentially injury free and they have been one of the least injured teams in the league all season. They have just one player listed as questionable, no one listed lower than questionable, and no one of note on injured reserve. They were missing talented center Nick Mangold with injury for a stretch, but he returned two weeks ago, and talented cornerback Darrelle Revis, who has missed the past two games with a concussion, returns this week. Mangold’s return has had a noticeable impact on the offense and Revis’ return should have a similar impact on the defense, though they played alright without him. The Jets rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential and, fully healthy like they are now, they are a force to be reckoned with and a team that should be favored by more than a touchdown over a banged up Titans squad.

The Titans are also in a tough spot, with a trip to New England on deck, for a game where the Titans will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Underdogs of 6+ are 42-65 ATS before being underdogs of 6+ again, since 2012, as it’s very tough for an inferior team to keep the game close if they have an upcoming distraction like that. Furthermore, all teams are 35-54 ATS before being double digit underdogs, over that same time period, for similar reasons. It’s just too much of a distraction having such a huge game like that on deck. Combining the two, underdogs of 6+ are 18-44 ATS before being double digit underdogs, since 2010. The Jets are in a good spot, coming off of a road overtime win (56-44 ATS since 2002) and are distraction free, with a trip to Dallas on deck. They should be able to take care of business here at home pretty easily and they are my Pick of the Week.

New York Jets 27 Tennessee Titans 13

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (8-4) at Arizona Cardinals (10-2)

Aside from the opening game of the season, when the New England Patriots hosted the Pittsburgh Steelers, this is the first non-divisional Thursday Night game of the season. I was disappointed a couple years ago when they decided to do primarily divisional games on Thursday. Not only does the NFL lose quality of performance by having what would otherwise be a good divisional game on a short week, but, from a picking perspective, it can be very tough to predict who is going to cover a Thursday Night divisional game.

Ordinarily, the better team tends to cover on Thursday Night, as long as they are at home, because better teams that don’t have to travel are at a serious advantage on a short week, but not in a divisional game because the teams are so familiar with each other. Divisional home favorites on Thursday Night are 22-21 ATS since 2002, but non-divisional home favorites, like the Cardinals here, are 26-12 ATS, including 12-3 ATS as favorites of 7+.

The Cardinals are favored by 9 here. They were only favored by 6 a week ago on the early line and typically I like to fade that kind of significant week-to-week line movement because it tends to be an overreaction to a single week of play, but I don’t mind it here. The Cardinals are coming off of a resounding 27-3 victory in St. Louis, a game in which they won the first down battle 29 to 9, while the Vikings are coming off of a resounding 38-7 home loss to the Seattle Seahawks, a game in which they lost the first down battle 25-9.

The Vikings are also going to be without defensive tackle Linval Joseph for the 2nd straight week and are also missing safety Harrison Smith and outside linebacker Anthony Barr, three of their best players. The Cardinals, who have the fewest first downs allowed AND the most first downs gained in the NFL this season, rank 1st in rate of moving the chains by a wide margin, while the Vikings are down in 18th and are even less talented than that suggests because of those three key absences, so, while this line seems high, I don’t mind laying all these points. The Cardinals should be the right side.

Arizona Cardinals 27 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona-9

Confidence: Medium

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Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (6-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-6)

The Texans started the season 1-4, but have won 5 of their last 6 games. This is a legitimate team in a generally weak NFL this season, as they rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential. Brian Hoyer isn’t the best quarterback in the world or anything, but his job is made easy by a defense that ranks 7th in rate of moving the chains allowed. They’ve beaten the Jets and Bengals recently with backup quarterback TJ Yates playing, because of how good their defense has been recently.

They’re also arguably the healthiest team in the NFL, as they don’t have a single player listed as anything lower than probable. Arian Foster is their only key player on injured reserve and he barely played this season, totaling just 390 yards from scrimmage on 74 touches. Jadeveon Clowney being healthy and showing his #1 overall pick talent in recent weeks has been huge for them and they got cornerback Kareem Jackson back from a 4 game absence last week. They’re coming off probably their best defensive performance of the season last week, allowing a Saints offense that ranks 5th in rate of moving the chains to move the chains at a mere 58.33% rate. There’s a very good chance they carry that over into this week, against a much weaker offense.

The Bills, meanwhile, rank 20th in rate of moving the chains differential and have plenty of injuries. Kyle Williams and Percy Harvin are out for the season and have been since week 5 and week 6 respectively. Defensive end Mario Williams returns from a 1 game absence, but he hasn’t played well this season and the Bills are also missing right guard John Miller, right tackle Seantrel Henderson, running back Karlos Williams, and outside linebacker Nigel Bradham. Despite that, they’re favored by 3.5. Given that close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, I’m confident enough in the Texans to put money on them.

Houston Texans 13 Buffalo Bills 10 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Houston +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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