Year: 2015

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Lions, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (3-2) at Detroit Lions (1-5)

Both of these two teams are missing key defensive players for this one. The Vikings will be without Sharrif Floyd, a 3rd year defensive tackle who was one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL in 2014 and who has continued that into this season. He’s played in the first 5 games, but will miss this one. On Detroit’s side, they’ll be without outside linebacker DeAndre Levy, who was one of the best linebackers in the NFL last season. The Lions are more used to being without him though, as he’s been limited to 17 nondescript snaps in one game by a hip injury thus far this season.

Despite that, the Lions don’t rank too much worse than the Vikings in rate of moving the chains differential, 27th to 20th. Both of these two teams have faced tough schedules (Detroit has faced San Diego, Minnesota, Denver, Seattle, Arizona and Chicago, while the Vikings have faced (San Francisco, Detroit, San Diego, Denver, and Kansas City) and I think the Vikings shouldn’t be favored here in Detroit, even if only by 2 points, especially since Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson is less than 100% likely to play with an illness. However, I can’t be confident in Detroit ahead of a London game next week. Teams are just 6-18 ATS all-time before a London game, as that provides a serious distraction. I’m still taking them, but this is my lowest confidence game of the season.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Detroit Lions 23

Pick against the spread: Detroit +2

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at New York Giants (3-3)

The Giants have never really had a very good homefield advantage, at least not since 2004, the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era.  They are 53-42 (45-50 ATS) at home over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game, as opposed to 54-44 (59-39 ATS) on the road over that time period, getting outscored by an average of 0.16 points per game. On the other side, the Cowboys are 22-22 at home (14-30 ATS) since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.32 points per game, as opposed to 23-20 on the road (25-17 ATS), getting outscored by an average of 0.26 points per game. The road team generally tends to do well in NFC East matchups overall anyway, for what that’s worth. The road team in NFC East divisional matchups is 37-54 ATS since 2008. On top of that, the Cowboys are 12-3 ATS as 3.5+ point road underdogs since 2010 (4-0 ATS in the division).

However, this line has moved from 5.5 in favor of the Giants last week in the early line to 3.5 now. That cost us a lot of line value. This line is probably still a little bit too high, considering how well the Cowboys typically travel, how little homefield advantage the Giants have, and the fact that the Cowboys rank 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Giants rank 19th. We’re just not really getting enough value with the Cowboys to be too confident in them, especially considering the Cowboys are a publicly backed underdog (which I like to avoid), and considering the Cowboys host the Seahawks next week. The Cowboys are expected to be 5.5 point underdogs in that one. Teams are 71-116 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3+, 40-78 ATS over that same time period before being 4+ point home underdogs, and 39-84 ATS over that same time period before being 6+ point home underdogs. I’m still taking the Cowboys, but I’m not confident at all.

New York Giants 23 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3.5

Confidence: None

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Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars in London: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bills, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) in London

The Bills lost at home 34-21 to the Bengals last week and are in a mess of a situation injury wise, missing quarterback Tyrod Taylor, running back Karlos Williams, wide receiver Sammy Watkins, wide receiver Percy Harvin, and defensive tackle Kyle Williams. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are arguably as healthy as they’ve been all season. While they have lost right guard Brandon Linder to injury for the season, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, safety John Cyprien, middle linebacker Paul Posluszny, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, left guard Luke Joeckel, and tight end Julius Thomas have all missed time with injury thus far this season and will all play this week.

However, the Bills could still easily bounce back and cover as 4.5 point favorites here. This is technically a Jacksonville home game, but it’s in London, so it’s a neutral site game. The better team typically covers in London, going 8-4 ATS all-time, including 8-2 ATS in their last 10. It’s a small sample size, but it makes sense. Teams must hate travelling to London to play a game, but if you’re actually in contention it makes it easier to get up for this game. It doesn’t help Jacksonville’s morale that they have to give up a home game for this. Favorites also tend to be more organized teams capable of playing this type of game.

The Bills aren’t very good, ranking 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential and in a rough injury situation, but the Jaguars are even worse, even though they have improved health, as they rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Bills are 3-3 and still in the AFC playoff race so they should be able to get up for this game and beat the Jaguars by at least 5. I’m not confident at all though, as long as the line is higher than 3. Hopefully it falls before the game, but I’m not banking on it.

Buffalo Bills 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -4.5

Confidence: None

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) at Washington Redskins (2-4)

The Redskins are going into a bye here, but that’s not a good thing, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-20 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites like the Redskins are here do not. Teams who are favored by 1-5.5 points at home going into the bye are just 37-60 ATS over that aforementioned time period. Perhaps it’s that they get caught looking forward. That could easily happen to the Redskins here at home against the Buccaneers.

The Redskins are also pretty banged up right now, missing starting cornerbacks DeAngelo Hall and Chris Culliver and top wide receiver DeSean Jackson, but that’s nothing new for this team. Bashaud Breeland has played well as their top cornerback and their defensive front 7 has been great, as their defense has ranked 9th in rate of moving the chains allowed. Their offense has had problems without DeSean Jackson, ranking 26th in rate of moving the chains, but they still rank 16th overall in rate of moving the chains differential and their offense does get left tackle Trent Williams back this week. They really missed him in a road loss to the Jets last week. Prior to that, they almost beat the Falcons in Atlanta, losing on a pick six in overtime. They could have also beaten Miami if not for a return touchdown.

They’re way better than Tampa Bay, who has the 5th worst point differential in the NFL and who ranks 31st in rate of moving the chains differential. Even with that trend working against them and all their injuries and the Buccaneers relative lack of injuries (only defensive tackle Tony McDaniel), I still like the Redskins this week. There is too much of a talent disparity between these two teams for the Redskins to only be favored by 3.5 points at home. It’s not enough for me to put money on the Redskins, but they should be the right side.

Washington Redskins 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against the spread: Washington -3.5

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (5-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-4)

On paper, this line is too high at 6.5. The Falcons are good, a 5-1 team that ranks 8th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re coming off of a loss in New Orleans last week, but now they’re in their 2nd straight road game, which helps, and Matt Ryan is 25-12 ATS off of a loss in his career. The Titans, however, despite their record, actually rank 11th in that stat. They got blown out by the Dolphins at home last week, but they also blew out the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay week 1, lost by a combined 3 points to Buffalo and Indianapolis, and were a few plays away from a much different game in Cleveland.

However, they also hadn’t had many injuries until now. Not only is Perrish Cox, a talented starting cornerback, out for this one, quarterback Marcus Mariota is also out, obviously a huge loss. Zach Mettenberger is starting in his absence. Mettenberg flashed as a 6th round rookie last year, but ultimately showed why he fell so far in the draft, which is the reason Mariota was drafted 2nd overall. He’s got some nice tools, but he’s a backup caliber quarterback and a significant downgrade from Mariota.

The Falcons, meanwhile, have no notable injuries. They also don’t have an upcoming distraction, hosting the Buccaneers next week, in game in which they are expected to be 8 point favorites.  Big favorites tend to cover before being big favorites again, as 6+ point favorites are 109-67 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point favorites again. This makes sense, as good teams tend to take care of their business pretty easily when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. I’m hesitant to put money on the Falcons as favorites of quite this many, especially with the public all over them, but they should be the right side.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -6.5

Confidence: Low

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Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (1-5) at Arizona Cardinals (4-2)

I’m pretty torn on this one. On one hand, the Ravens are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 119-86 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 97-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 203-210 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.46 points per game, as opposed to 294-407 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.94 points per game. On top of that, the Ravens, despite being 1-5, haven’t lost by more than 6 all season. Their 5 losses have come by a combined 22 points. Those facts are relevant, considering this line is 9.

That being said, this is probably the toughest game the Ravens have had all season. They played the Bengals, but that was in Baltimore and this is in Arizona. They played the Broncos in Denver, but the Broncos aren’t as good as their 6-0 record and the Ravens still had Terrell Suggs for most of that game. They’ve really missed him. The Cardinals are “just” 4-2, but they actually rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential and have won that battle in all 6 of their games. In their 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence for why a team is good. The Cardinals, despite 2 losses, have been very dominant through the first 6 weeks of the season.

Who they’re dominating is a concern though. They haven’t played a very tough schedule, playing New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco, St. Louis, Detroit, and Pittsburgh (with Michael Vick/Landry Jones). However, the Ravens aren’t much better than any of those teams. In fact, they lost to the 49ers in San Francisco last week. Despite most of their games being close, they only rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential. Sure, they could easily be 3-3, but their one win came in overtime so they could just as easily be 0-6. They’re more talented that that suggests and they ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014, but they’ve lost Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, Pernell McPhee, Darian Stewart, and Torrey Smith from that team, as well as offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, and that’s had a noticeable effect on this team. They’re not very good.

The Cardinals could easily have another blowout victory this week and cover this 9 point line. It helps that they have no upcoming distractions, as they head to Cleveland next week, where they are expected to be 4 point favorites over the Browns. Teams are 105-80 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites and 68-48 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites. The Cardinals aren’t guaranteed to be 4+ point road favorites, but the logic would still hold either way. I’m going with the Cardinals, but this line is way too high for me to be confident.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Baltimore Ravens 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -9

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Chargers, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-4)

The Chargers are 2-4, but they’re much better than their record, as they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve only had a negative rate of moving the chains differential in 2 of 6 games, in Cincinnati and in Minnesota, two teams that are a combined 9-2. They won the chains battle in Green Bay last week, where it’s borderline impossible to win. The Chargers still lost the game by a touchdown, getting stopped on 4th down on the goal line at the last second, but it was still a very impressive performance, especially given that the Packers were going into a bye. The week prior, they lost at home to the Steelers, but they dominated the chains battle and could have easily won by 10+ if they didn’t throw a pick six, give up a long touchdown, and drop 3 interceptions. Aside from a few plays, they were clearly the better of those two teams.

The Chargers are banged up going into this one, with safety Eric Weddle, one of the best defensive players in the league, expected to miss this one. Tight end Antonio Gates could join him, after not practicing all week, meaning he’s probably on the doubtful side of questionable. However, they’ve been banged up all year. Cornerbacks Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett have both dealt with injury, as have offensive linemen King Dunlap and Orlando Franklin. Flowers and Verrett are fully healthy now and Dunlap and Franklin are expected to return this week, a huge boost for an offensive line that has struggled without them.

The Raiders, meanwhile, rank 15th in rate of moving the chains, much better than normal for this franchise, but still significantly behind San Diego. Plus, while the Chargers are arguably healthier now than they’ve been all season, the Raiders were dealt their first major injury blow of the season in their last game, losing Justin Tuck for the season. Tuck was such a huge part of a surprisingly strong Oakland front 7 and he’ll be very much missed. The Raiders deserve to be underdogs of more than 4, especially given that they have a tough test at home against the Jets next week, a game in which they are expected to be 3+ point home underdogs.

Teams are 71-116 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3+ and 40-78 ATS over that same time period before being 4+ point home underdogs. The Raiders are not guaranteed to be 3+ point home underdogs, but, even if they aren’t, the logic still holds. They have a much tougher upcoming game than the Chargers, who go to Baltimore to face a Ravens team that could be 1-6 if they lose in Arizona as big underdogs this week. That difference could show on the field. There’s not enough here for me to put money on the Chargers, but they should be the right side.

San Diego Chargers 27 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against the spread: San Diego -4

Confidence: Low

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New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (2-4) at Indianapolis Colts (3-3)

The Colts are in a bunch of spots that they’ve been historically good in since Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano arrived in 2012. The Colts are 19-9 ATS at home (including a cover last week as 9.5 point home underdogs in a loss to the Patriots), 14-3 ATS off of a loss, and 8-2 ATS at home off of a loss. On top of that, they are 16-4 ATS in week 5 or later against opponents who have a winning percentage of less than 50% like the Saints here. The Colts have always had trouble with tougher opponents, but they’re a covering machine in easy situations like this, at home, against an easy opponent, and coming off of a loss that dropped the line a little bit.

The line has been dropped from 6.5 in the early line last week to 4.5 this week, as a result of Indianapolis’ home loss to the Patriots and the Saints home win over the Atlanta Falcons. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense, as they tend to be overreactions to one week. This game will be no exception, as we’re getting a good amount of line value with the Colts. The Colts rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Saints only rank 21st.

This is despite the fact that the Colts were without Andrew Luck for 2 of their 6 games and now he’s going into his 2nd game back. The Colts will be without safety Mike Adams in this one, but, compared to early in the season, when they had all sorts of guys banged up, the Colts are in a relatively good injury situation right now. The Saints are too, only missing cornerback Keenan Lewis, after struggling with injuries early on, but there’s no way they should be just 4.5 point underdogs in Indianapolis against a relatively healthy Indianapolis team. They should be at least touchdown underdogs, especially given Indianapolis’ homefield advantage. The Saints’ defense is atrocious, even when healthy, and should have major problems slowing the Colts’ now healthy offense.

The only reason why the Colts are my Pick of the Week or a high confidence pick is because they do have a tough game next week in Carolina, which could provide a distraction. The Saints, meanwhile, host the New York Giants, which is an easier game. Underdogs are 113-70 ATS since 2010 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, as teams tend to be more focused than their opponent in spots like that. Still, I like the Colts chances of covering in this one. This line is too low and the Colts always bounce back off of a loss and always take care of business at home against bad opponents.

Indianapolis Colts 30 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -4.5

Confidence: Medium

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New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Jets, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

New York Jets (4-1) at New England Patriots (5-0)

The Patriots are in a good spot this week, as they are 9 point favorites before being favored by a bunch of points again next week, as they’re expected to be 10.5 point favorites at home over the Miami Dolphins. Big favorites tend to cover before being big favorites again, as 6+ point favorites are 109-67 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point favorites again. This makes sense, as good teams tend to take care of their business pretty easily when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. That being said, I’m still going with the Jets as 9 point underdogs for a bunch of reasons.

For one, the Patriots don’t deserve to be 9 point favorites here. They’re good, arguably the best team in the league, as they rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, carrying over their strong play from down the stretch in 2014 into 2015, but the Jets are also a very good team, ranking 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, just one spot below the Patriots. The Patriots are much more likely to finish the season in the top-3 and are the more talented team on paper, but the Jets are much improved from last season.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has bounced back well from a broken leg that ended his 2014 season and has continued his surprisingly solid play from 2013 and 2014 in Tennessee and Houston, giving the Jets arguably the best quarterback they’ve had since Chad Pennington. Wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker give him a pair of solid targets to throw to and running back Chris Ivory has broken out as a legitimate feature back. Meanwhile, a veteran offensive line has rolled back the clock a little bit and played very well.

Defensively, new head coach Todd Bowles has improved a defense that was already pretty solid to begin with, in large part due to big contributions from free agent acquisition cornerback Darrelle Revis and first round pick defensive end Leonard Williams. Last week, the Jets got defensive end Sheldon Richardson, one of the best defensive players in the game in 2013 and 2014, back from a 4 game suspension, adding to an already stacked 3-man defensive front in their 3-4 defense, with Damon Harrison, Leonard Williams, and Muhammad Wilkerson. They rank #1 by a wide margin in rate of moving the chains allowed and could give the Patriots’ offense a lot of problems. This is the toughest game of the Patriots’ season thus far and they shouldn’t be favored by much more than 4 or 5 points. We’re getting great value with the Jets at +9, even with the Patriots having an easy game on deck. The Jets shouldn’t be 9 point underdogs anywhere.

On top of that, the Patriots’ easy game next week might not be as easy as it seems, as they have to turn around and face the Dolphins in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. That hurts them, as teams, particularly favorites, struggle before Thursday Night Football, as having another game in 4 days understandably provides a distraction. Favorites are 41-66 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. I wouldn’t worry too much about that aforementioned trend about 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites because the Jets are such a tough opponent and the Patriots’ next game is in 4 days.

The Jets, meanwhile, also have a relatively easy game on deck, as they head to Oakland, where they’re expected to be 3 point road favorites. Teams are 105-80 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites and 68-48 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites. The Jets aren’t guaranteed to be 3+ point road favorites, but the logic would still hold either way. This is a way more important game for the Jets than their next game will be and that should show on the field, especially against a New England team that has to play again in 4 days. The Jets are also in a much better injury situation, with no one of note expected to miss this game, besides backup running back Bilal Powell. The Patriots, meanwhile, were already without left tackle Nate Solder for the season going into last week and now are also without replacement left tackle Marcus Cannon, along with defensive end Jabaal Sheard and Dont’a Hightower, very big parts of their defense. I’d take the Jets +9 easily.

New England Patriots 24 New York Jets 20

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +9

Confidence: High

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Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (2-4) at St. Louis Rams (2-3)

One of the most important things to look at when picking a side against the spread is who the teams are playing next. Typically, the difficulty of a team’s upcoming matchup seems to at least correlate with their likelihood of covering this time. In this game between the Browns and Rams in St. Louis, the Browns have easily the tougher upcoming matchup, as they host the NFC West leading Arizona Cardinals, while the Rams host the bottom dwelling San Francisco 49ers. While the Browns are expected to be 4 point home underdogs, the Rams are expected to be at least 6 point home favorites next week. Teams are 71-123 ATS since 2010 before being 4+ point home underdogs and 109-67 ATS over that same time period as 6+ point favorites (as the Rams are here as 6.5 point favorites) before being 6+ point favorites (as the Rams are expected to be again next week against the 49ers).

However, the Rams really do not deserve to be favored by 6.5 points, as they rank 30th in rate of moving the chains differential, thanks to a pitiful offense that moves the chains at the league’s worst rate. Through 5 games, they have just 72 first downs to 97 for their opponents. There’s a very good chance they finish with 6 wins or fewer this season and teams that finish with that few wins only cover the spread about a quarter of the time as favorites of 6 or more. It’s a tough trend to use because you don’t always know that a team won’t win that many games, especially early in the season like this, but I’m making an educated guess.

Besides, the Browns, while they have their own issues, rank 18th in rate of moving the chains differential, so there’s really no reason the Rams should be favored by 6.5 here at home. They’re not 3.5-4 points better than the Browns. They should be favored by only like 2 points, even with an easy game on deck for the Rams and a tougher one on deck for the Browns. The Browns are missing defensive backs Joe Haden and Tashaun Gipson with injury in this one, but neither of them have been playing that well anyway. Meanwhile, the Rams are without outside linebacker Alec Ogletree and defensive end Chris Long from a defense that is keeping this team afloat. As long as this line is higher than 6, I have no problem putting money on the Browns.

St. Louis Rams 17 Cleveland Browns 16

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +6.5

Confidence: Medium

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