Year: 2015

2015 NFL Free Agency Rankings: Running Backs

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agent Rankings, Uncategorized

1. DeMarco Murray

The Cowboys tried a very interesting approach with DeMarco Murray in 2014. Knowing he likely wouldn’t be back as a free agent at the end of the season, the Cowboys decided to ride DeMarco Murray into the ground, giving him 392 carries and not caring if it destroyed his body long-term. The results were very good as the Cowboys went 12-4 and won a playoff game on the back of Murray and his 1825 rushing yards. However, he’s a very risky signing this off-season for a variety of reasons, especially in a league where running backs are getting decreasingly valuable every year. For one, since 1988, only 4 of 26 running backs who led the league in carries surpassed their rushing yards total the following season. Those 26 backs averaged 365 carries per season, rushed for 1612 yards, and scored 14 touchdowns in the season they led the league in carries. The following season, they averaged 262 carries per season, rushed for 1053 yards, and scored 8 touchdowns. Murray already saw his YPC drop from 5.14 in the first 8 games of the season to 4.23 in the final 8. There’s a reason backs are rarely given more than 350 carries, as teams don’t want to ruin that player for the following season. The Cowboys knew Murray wasn’t coming back in 2015 though so they didn’t care. They offered him a mere 4-year, 16 million dollar deal this off-season. Murray has an injury history dating back to his collegiate days too. He made it through all 16 games in 2014 (not without a broken hand), but he missed 11 games in first 3 seasons and fell to the 3rd round of the 2011 NFL Draft because of injury concerns. Even if Murray stays healthy in 2015, he’s highly unlikely to even come within 50 carries of his 2014 total, a problem as his 4.71 YPC in 2014 was good, but not outstanding or anything. He got to 1800 yards on volume largely. He also won’t be able to bring the Cowboys’ offensive line to his next destination so his efficiency should go down too. The Cowboys were Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked team in run blocking grade. Murray should have a huge buyer beware stamp on his head.

2. Justin Forsett

Coming into 2014, Justin Forsett was a 2008 7th round pick who had never played more than 118 carries in a season in 6 seasons in the league and had 6 carries the prior season in Jacksonville. However, Forsett took advantage of the Ray Rice situation and rushed for 1266 yards and 8 touchdowns on 235 carries (5.39 YPC), grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked running back. His 5.08 career average is very nice, but he’s already going into his age 30 season and he’s a one-year wonder. After breaking out in Gary Kubiak’s offensive scheme in 2014, a union with the Atlanta Falcons makes sense for both sides. The Falcons have a running back need after cutting Steven Jackson and Kubiak disciple Kyle Shanahan is the offensive coordinator there.

3. Ryan Mathews

Matthews has talent, but injuries are a serious issue, as he’s missed 20 games in 5 seasons in the league since the Chargers made him the 12th overall pick in 2010. Mathews rushed for 678 yards and 7 touchdowns on 158 carries (4.29 YPC) in 12 games as a rookie and looked primed to become one of the better backs in the NFL after a strong 2011 season that saw him rush for 1091 yards and 6 touchdowns on 222 carries (4.91 YPC). He also had 50 catches that season. However, Mathews did not live up to the expectations in 2012, missing another 4 games, seeing just 184 carries and being limited to 3.84 YPC when on the field. Mathews finally put it all together in 2013, rushing for 1255 yards and 6 touchdowns on 285 carries, an average of 4.40 YPC (though he only caught 29 passes, significantly fewer than the 50 he caught in 2011). Unfortunately, he did that only to miss 10 games with injury the following season, rushing for 330 yards and 3 touchdowns on 74 attempts, an average of 4.46 YPC. Mathews likely isn’t going to become more durable as he goes into his age 28 season so, while he’s talented, any team that signs him needs to have a good insurance policy.

4. CJ Spiller

CJ Spiller, a 2010 1st round pick, had a fantastic 2012 campaign, rushing for 1244 yards and 6 touchdowns on 207 carries (6.01 YPC), with 43 catches for 459 yards and 3 touchdowns. He looked poised for a breakout year in 2013 as a 300+ touch back, but he struggled with injuries over the last 2 seasons (missing 8 games combined and being limited in several others) and he was never a great fit for Doug Marrone and Nathaniel Hackett’s offense. Over the past 2 seasons, he’s rushed for 1233 yards and 2 touchdowns on 280 carries (4.40 YPC), with 52 catches for 310 yards and a touchdown, combined numbers that many people thought he’d be able to surpass in 2013 alone. He hits free agency having never surpassed 207 carries with annual issues in pass protection (grading out below average in 4 of 5 seasons) and coming off the worst season of his career, 300 yards on 78 carries (3.85 YPC) in 9 games. He could be a nice buy low candidate though, as he has a 4.97 YPC average and shows clear first round talent at times. A reunion with former Head Coach Chan Gailey (now offensive coordinator of the Jets) has been rumored and would make a lot of sense. Spiller had his huge 2012 season under Gailey.

5. Frank Gore

Frank Gore has had a fantastic 10-year run with the 49ers, rushing for 11,073 yards and 64 touchdowns on 2442 carries, playing all but 12 games at one of the most physical positions in the NFL. He added 342 catches for 2883 yards and another 11 scores through the air, while being one of the best pass protecting running backs and one of the best teammates in the NFL. He was everything the 49ers could have asked out of the 2005 3rd round pick, talented, complete, durable, and a great teammate. His rushing yards rank 20th all-time and he could be bound for Canton. He’s definitely bound for the 49ers’ Ring of Honor. However, all good things must come to an end. Gore is going into his age 32 season with 2442 carries. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade and a half, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. He might not have looked it last year, but he’s close to the end. I don’t expect the cap strapped 49ers to bring him back, instead going with 2014 2nd round pick Carlos Hyde as the starter in 2015. Whoever signs Gore could be very disappointed with his play on the field because of where he is in his career.

6. Ahmad Bradshaw

Bradshaw’s 4.60 career YPC is very impressive and he’s also very useful on passing downs, both as a pass catcher and a pass blocker. However, injuries have been a serious problem for him. He’s always dealt with nagging injuries throughout his career, only playing all 16 games once in 8 seasons, but over the past 4 seasons they’ve especially cost him, as he’s missed 25 games combined in that time period. Last season, he was off to a great start to his season, rushing for 425 yards and 2 touchdowns on 90 carries (4.72 YPC) and added 38 catches for 300 yards and 6 more touchdowns through the air. However, he broke his ankle and missed the final 6 games of the season. Despite just 391 snaps, he was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked running back overall. Going into his age 29 season, Bradshaw is a serious injury risk, but he could be a solid buy low candidate on a buyer’s market for running backs.

7. Shane Vereen

Vereen saw just 188 snaps in 2011 and 2012 combined, but the 2011 2nd round pick was expected to be a big part of their post-Aaron Hernandez offense in 2013. He was when he was on the field, but he missed 8 games with injury. He caught 47 passes for 427 yards and 3 touchdowns on 66 targets on 200 routes run, an average of 2.14 yards per route run that was 2nd only to Darren Sproles among running backs, very impressive numbers in 8 games. Going into 2014, he was expected to put up big receiving numbers, assuming he stayed healthy. He did stay healthy, playing all 16 games, but in that sense, his 52 catches were a disappointment. Still, he hits free agency as a valuable, versatile #2 back. He’s only averaged 4.18 yards per carry on 217 carries in his career, but what he does as a pass catcher could get him close to the 3.5 million annually he reportedly covets.

8. Stevan Ridley

Ridley, a 2011 3rd round pick, rushed for 1263 yards and 12 touchdowns on 290 carries (4.36 YPC) in his 2ndyear in the league in 2012, but he’ll come cheap this off-season. There’s a reason for that. In the two seasons since, he’s rushed for 1113 yards and 9 touchdowns on 272 carries (4.09 YPC) and he’s coming off of a torn ACL he suffered midway through last season. He’s also useless as a pass catcher, with 23 catches in 52 career games and has 9 career fumbles on 672 career touches. He’ll have to settle for a one-year, prove it deal this off-season, but he could be a smart buy low option for a running back needy team. A return to New England as a backup behind LeGarrette Blount would make some sense.

9. Roy Helu

Roy Helu only has 255 carries in 4 seasons since the Redskins drafted him in the 4th round in 2011, but he’s averaged 4.44 yards per carry and where he really provides value is as a 3rd down back. In 48 career games, Helu has 129 catches for 1152 yards and 3 touchdowns and he’s been a top-5 pass blocking running back in 2 of the 4 seasons he’s been in the league. In a league that’s becoming increasingly pass heavy, Helu will have plenty of suitors for a backup job this off-season.

10. Reggie Bush

Bush never really became the otherworldly talent that the NFL was expecting him to be, after the Saints drafted the former Heisman winner 2nd overall in 2006, but after an injury plagued tenure in New Orleans that saw him max out at 157 carries, Bush became a solid starter from 2011-2013 with the Dolphins and Lions, averaging 222 carries for 1026 yards and 5 touchdowns and 44 catches for 365 yards and 2 touchdowns over that time period. Those days appear behind him now though, as he heads into his age 30 season, coming off of a season where he was more of a complementary back behind Joique Bell. Bush rushed for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns on 76 carries (3.91 YPC) and caught 40 passes for 253 yards. He also missed 5 games with injury and Theo Riddick did a solid job as the complementary back in his absence. The Lions cut Bush to save 3.5 million in cash and 1.72 million on the cap.

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2015 NFL Free Agency Rankings: Quarterbacks

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agent Rankings, Uncategorized

1. Matt Moore

Moore only attempted 29 passes over the past 3 seasons combined in Miami as Ryan Tannehill has made 48 straight starts to begin his career, but he wasn’t horrible in his last extended playing time in 2011, completing 60.5% of his passes for an average of 7.20 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He graded out 13th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus that season. The fact that he hasn’t played much in the last 3 seasons hurts him, but he’s only going into his age 31 season and got 8 million over 2 years on his last deal. He should get a similar deal this off-season from a team with more of a quarterback need than the Dolphins and he could make a few starts somewhere in 2015.

2. Brian Hoyer

Hoyer had his moments in the first extended starting experience of his career in 2014, but ultimately proved to not be anything more than a solid backup caliber quarterback. He completed 55.3% of his passes for 7.59 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 35th ranked quarterback out of 39 eligible. The former undrafted free agent’s career numbers aren’t much different, as he’s completed 56.5% of his passes for an average of 7.23 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions on 630 career attempts. He’ll probably get a chance to compete for the starting job wherever he goes next and he’ll be paid decently, but he’s not a long-term option, especially since he’s already going into his age 30 season.

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Miami Dolphins sign DT Ndamukong Suh

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Suh is a fantastic football player, one of the best defensive tackles in the game, and arguably one of the best players in the NFL regardless of position. He’s been a top-4 defensive tackle on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons, joining only Gerald McCoy as the only two players who can say that. However, there’s no way this isn’t an overpay. This deal will pay Suh 114 million dollars over 6 seasons (19 million dollars annually) with 60 million of that guaranteed. That 19 million dollar annual salary is 5th highest in the NFL regardless of position and the 4 players who make more annually than Suh will on this deal are all quarterbacks.

This is too much for any non-quarterback, except for maybe JJ Watt, but he’s on his own level. The Dolphins are paying a premium to sign Suh on the open market in a bidding war and this just simply isn’t as team friendly of a deal as the one Houston gave to Watt (6-years, 100 million with 51.8 million guaranteed) and Tampa Bay gave to McCoy (7-year, 98 million with 51.5 million guaranteed) last off-season. It’s not a terrible deal or anything, but it’s further proof that it’s always better to build through the draft and lock up your own guys than it is to build through free agency. Miami would have been better off re-signing Jared Odrick for 8 million annually and adding another top free agent to their secondary or their offensive line with the leftover money.

Grade: C+

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Philadelphia Eagles sign CB Byron Maxwell

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, Uncategorized

Byron Maxwell was at the top of my list of guys I expected to get overpaid this off-season and sure enough he was overpaid, as this deal is worth 63 million over 6 seasons, with 25 million over the first 2 years guaranteed. Maxwell was a 6th round pick in 2011, played 152 snaps in his first 2 seasons combined, and then broke into the starting lineup in 2013. He flashed top cornerback ability in limited action in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 16th ranked cornerback on 494 snaps with 5 starts. No one played fewer snaps and graded out better among cornerbacks in 2013. However, Maxwell has never shown that kind of ability over a full season, grading out about average overall in 2014 as a 13-game starter (he missed 3 games with injury) opposite Richard Sherman. He was Pro Football Focus’ 45th ranked cornerback in 2014 and allowed 63.4% completion.

Things aren’t going to get easier for him now that he’s away from Seattle’s scheme, coaching, and supporting cast. The Seahawks barely made an effort to retain him this off-season, which should have been a red flag. The Eagles had a ton of cap space and a huge need at cornerback and I like the moves they made this off-season to free up cap space, but if they’re going to spend it like this, they’re not really going to help themselves. Considering Kareem Jackson got 8.5 million annually and Brandon Flowers got 9 million annually, it’s absurd that Maxwell got 10.5 million annually. Jackson and Flowers are both better players than Maxwell is. This is going to look like the worst overpay of the off-season when we look back at it.

Grade: F

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New England Patriots 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Patriots, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Guard

The Patriots’ offensive line got better as the season went on, but it was still their Achilles heel and somewhere they need to add this off-season. They especially need help at left guard, where Dan Connolly graded out 72nd out of 78 eligible guards last season. He’s a free agent going into his age 33 season and the Patriots should aim higher in terms of a starter at that spot for next season.

Defensive End

Dominique Easley was drafted in the first round in 2014, but he struggled through knee problems as a rookie, grading out below average on 270 snaps as a rookie. His knee issues date back to his collegiate days, as he tore both of his ACLs in college. He should have a bigger role in 2015, but he’s hard to trust going forward. Vince Wilfork, meanwhile, could be a cap casualty this off-season, while Chris Jones, a 2013 undrafted free agent, has struggled in each of his first 2 seasons in the NFL. In 2013, he was Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked defensive tackle and he graded out 42 out of 47th eligible 3-4 defensive ends in 2014. The Patriots need to add to their defensive line this off-season.

Running Back

With Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen set to hit free agency, the Patriots need to replenish depth behind LeGarrette Blount, a solid lead back, but tough to trust and useless in the passing game. James White is a 2014 4th round pick who struggled on 31 snaps as a rookie, while Jonas Gray had a 201 yard game and did little else after that. They especially need a complementary back who can help in the passing game like Kevin Faulk, Danny Woodhead, and Shane Vereen have done before for the Patriots, assuming they don’t re-sign Vereen.

Outside Linebacker

Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich are a solid edge rusher duo, regardless of scheme, but they had no depth behind them in 2013, which is why they played 1142 and 1114 snaps respectively, 1st and 2nd among 4-3 defensive ends in snaps played respectively. The Patriots added Akeem Ayers for depth purposes in 2014 when Chandler Jones got hurt and he did well in that role, but he’s a free agent this off-season. If he’s not retained, they’ll need to replenish depth, especially with Ninkovich going into his age 31 season and coming off the first season in which he graded out below average in 5 seasons as a starter.

Cornerback

There’s a chance Darrelle Revis won’t be back with the Patriots in 2015, as they need to work out a long-term deal with him to avoid paying him 20 million next season. That would leave Brandon Browner, Logan Ryan, and Kyle Arrington as their top-3 cornerbacks, but none of those 3 players are #1 cornerbacks and Browner could be a cap casualty after committing 19 penalties in 12 games this season. He’s owed 5.5 million non-guaranteed in 2015 and the Patriots can save that entire amount on the cap by letting him go.

Safety

If Devin McCourty isn’t retained as a free agent this off-season, they’ll need to replace him. Duron Harmon is an internal option, but the 2013 3rd round pick has only played 714 snaps in 2 seasons in the league so, while he’s flashed, he’s unproven and they’ll need to find competition for him in the case that McCourty leaves.

Key Free Agents

S Devin McCourty

McCourty entered the NFL as a cornerback, moved to safety in the middle of the 2012 season and has pretty much been dominant wherever he’s been. He’s graded out above average in all 5 seasons he’s been in the league since the Patriots drafted him in the 1st round in 2010 and, with the exception of 2011, he’s been an elite player in every season. In 2010, he was Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked cornerback. In 2012, his composite grade across cornerback and safety would have been 5th among cornerbacks and 4th among safeties. And in the last two seasons, he’s been Pro Football Focus’ 1st and 8th ranked safety respectively. He and Eric Weddle are the only two safeties to grade out in the top-8 in each of the last 2 seasons. The top safety in this free agency class, McCourty is expected to get between 8-9 million annually, which would make him one of the highest paid safeties in the NFL. He’d be worth it.

OLB Akeem Ayers

Akeem Ayers, a 2011 2nd round pick, graded out above average in each of his first 3 seasons in the league with the Titans, including 4th among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2013. However, the Titans’ incompetent new regime didn’t seem to know how to use him and he played just 10 snaps for them before being traded to the Patriots for a swap of late round picks mid-season. In New England, they had no problem figuring out how to use him and he provided much needed depth as a 3-4 outside linebacker, grading out above average on 390 snaps. There’s a reason why the Patriots were Super Bowl winners this year and the Titans went 2-14. Ayers can play both 4-3 and 3-4 outside linebacker, but he’s a better pass rusher than he is in coverage so he’s probably a better fit for a 3-4, where he’ll get more pass rush opportunities. On a strong edge rush market, Ayers could be a nice, cheap option for teams in need of pass rush help.

RB Shane Vereen

Vereen saw just 188 snaps in 2011 and 2012 combined, but the 2011 2nd round pick was expected to be a big part of their post-Aaron Hernandez offense in 2013. He was when he was on the field, but he missed 8 games with injury. He caught 47 passes for 427 yards and 3 touchdowns on 66 targets on 200 routes run, an average of 2.14 yards per route run that was 2nd only to Darren Sproles among running backs, very impressive numbers in 8 games. Going into 2014, he was expected to put up big receiving numbers, assuming he stayed healthy. He did stay healthy, playing all 16 games, but in that sense, his 52 catches were a disappointment. Still, he hits free agency as a valuable, versatile #2 back. He’s only averaged 4.18 yards per carry on 217 carries in his career, but what he does as a pass catcher could get him close to the 3.5 million annually he reportedly covets.

RB Stevan Ridley

Ridley, a 2011 3rd round pick, rushed for 1263 yards and 12 touchdowns on 290 carries (4.36 YPC) in his 2nd year in the league in 2012, but he’ll come cheap this off-season. There’s a reason for that. In the two seasons since, he’s rushed for 1113 yards and 9 touchdowns on 272 carries (4.09 YPC) and he’s coming off of a torn ACL he suffered midway through last season. He’s also useless as a pass catcher, with 23 catches in 52 career games and has 9 career fumbles on 672 career touches. He’ll have to settle for a one-year, prove it deal this off-season, but he could be a smart buy low option for a running back needy team. A return to New England as a backup behind LeGarrette Blount would make some sense.

G Dan Connolly

Dan Connolly is a smart, versatile interior offensive lineman who can play both guard positions and center, but he’s graded out below average in 3 of the last 4 seasons, including 67th out of 81 eligible guards in 2013 and 72nd out of 78 eligible guards in 2014. Going into his age 33 season, he should be a reserve next season. The Patriots should find an upgrade at left guard this off-season and bring Connolly back on a cheap deal as a reserve and a veteran presence.

Cap Casualty Candidates

CB Darrelle Revis

Darrelle Revis is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, grading out 3rd in 2008, 2nd in 2009, 18th in 2010, 1st in 2011, 1st in 2013, and 4th in 2014, with a torn ACL in 2012 that didn’t slow his career down in between. However, Revis is owed 20 million in 2015, including a 12.5 million dollar bonus scheduled to be paid out on the first day of free agency. The Patriots never really intended to pay him that when they signed him last off-season. There’s a small chance they do, given how good he is, but more likely he’ll be released, saving them 20 million on the cap. The Patriots would then try to bring him back on a long-term deal as a free agent. Their preferred option would be to work out an extension with him before then, but that’s no guarantee.

DE Vince Wilfork

Wilfork wasn’t bad in his first season back from a torn Achilles, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked 3-4 defensive end, but he’s going into his age 34 season and the Patriots can save 8.5 million in cash and 8.067 million on the cap by letting him go this off-season. He’s a fan favorite, he’s been with the team for 11 years, and he played well last season, but that’s just too much to pay to an aging player when you have cap problems and other players to keep long-term.

WR Danny Amendola

Danny Amendola was signed by the Patriots to a 5-year, 28.5 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago to be the long-term replacement for Wes Welker. That didn’t happen, though fortunately for the Patriots, Julian Edelman became what they were expecting Amendola to become. Amendola missed 4 games with injury in 2013 and, though he played all 16 games in 2014, he struggled mightily overall and was well behind Edelman and Brandon LaFell on the depth chart. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 93rd ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible on 466 snaps. He played well in the post-season, but that might not be enough for him to stick around. His 4.5 million dollar salary for 2015 is non-guaranteed and too rich for a mediocre, injury prone #3 wide receiver. The Patriots would save 2.1 million on the cap by letting him go.

CB Brandon Browner

Brandon Browner did some nice things for the Patriots after his return from suspension, but his 15 penalties in 9 games was absurd and caused him to grade out below average overall, 19 penalties in 12 games if you include the post-season. That has been a perennial issue for him. The Patriots can save 5.5 million in cash and cap space by letting him go this off-season. Obviously, it’s much easier to give up on him if they are able to re-sign Revis. I’d like to see them keep Revis, let Browner go and go forward with Revis, Logan Ryan, and Kyle Arrington as their top-3 cornerbacks in 2015.

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Seattle Seahawks 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Position of Need

Wide Receiver

The Seahawks traded Percy Harvin to the Jets mid-season. It was a good move, as he was reportedly a team cancer and either way they were probably going to cut him this off-season, as his play on the field was not living up to his non-guaranteed 10.5 million dollar salary for 2015. Credit them for getting something for him. However, whiffing on the trade that sent Harvin to the Seahawks from the Vikings for a 1st and 3rd round pick has left them stuck with Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse as their top-2 wide receivers. Baldwin is a solid player, but Kearse can be upgraded and neither is a #1 receiver. The Seahawks like 2014 2nd round pick Paul Richardson’s long-term potential, but, he tore his ACL late in 2014 and his 2015 is in doubt as a result.

Guard

Left guard James Carpenter is a free agent this off-season and, after grading out below average in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league since the Seahawks drafted him in the 1st round in 2011, he could easily not be back in 2015. Meanwhile at right guard, JR Sweezy has graded out below average in all 3 seasons he’s been in the league since being drafted in the 7th round in 2012. Guard help is needed this off-season.

Defensive Tackle

Kevin Williams, Tony McDaniel, Jordan Hill, and Brandon Mebane were the Seahawks’ top 4 defensive tackles in terms of snaps played in 2014 and all 4 graded out below average, a weakness on an overall strong Seattle defense. Williams is a free agent going into his age 35 season. McDaniel and Mebane could be cap casualties, as the Seahawks would save 3 million and 5.5 million respectively on the cap by letting them go, though both were significantly better in 2013. Hill, meanwhile, is a 2013 3rd round pick with only 431 career snaps in 2 seasons. This is easily somewhere they could add this off-season.

Cornerback

Byron Maxwell is widely expected to be out of the Seahawks’ price range as their #2 cornerback opposite Richard Sherman. With Jeremy Lane doubtful for the start of next season after somehow breaking his arm and tearing his ACL on the same play in the Super Bowl, cornerback help is needed this off-season. Tharold Simon is a 2013 4th round pick with 305 career snaps in 2 seasons and was horrible in the post-season for the Seahawks, while Marcus Burley has played 328 snaps in 2 seasons since entering the league as an undrafted free agent in 2013. The Seahawks usually rely on the draft and promoting from within at cornerback, but they could sign someone like Tramon Williams in free agency. The veteran would come relatively cheap and John Schneider was in Green Bay when the Packers brought him to town.

Tight End

Zach Miller missed 13 games with injury in 2014 and is expected to be a cap casualty this off-season. In his absence, Luke Willson, Tony Moeaki, and Cooper Helfet saw the majority of the snaps at tight end. Willson has been solid thus far in his career, grading out around average on 415 snaps as a 5th round rookie in 2013 and on 579 snaps in 2014, but they need another tight end. Moeaki was signed mid-season and will be a free agent this off-season, while Helfet has played 249 snaps in 3 seasons since going undrafted in 2012. When the Seahawks were trying to trade Percy Harvin, they tried to get Julius Thomas from Denver and Jordan Cameron from Cleveland. Both of those players will be free agents this off-season so the Seahawks could make a run at one or both of them to pair with Willson.

Offensive Tackle

Center Max Unger was the only Seahawks offensive lineman to play a snap last season and grade out above average, so guard isn’t the only problem spot on Seattle’s offensive line. Russell Okung is probably locked into the left tackle position for his contract year in 2015, though there’s a small chance that the oft injured former 1st round pick could be a cap casualty. Justin Britt was a 2nd round pick in 2014 and will probably get another chance at right tackle. However, Okung has graded out above average on Pro Football Focus just once in 5 seasons and has missed 21 games in those 5 seasons with injuries, while Britt was Pro Football Focus’ 74th ranked offensive tackle out of 84 eligible in 2014.

Key Free Agents

CB Byron Maxwell

The “other” member of the Legion of Boom, Maxwell broke into the starting lineup in 2013 in the middle of the 2011 6th round pick’s 3rd season in the NFL. Maxwell played 494 snaps in 2013, made 5 starts in place of a suspended Brandon Browner, and graded out 16th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. The Seahawks let Browner walk the following off-season and Maxwell became a full-time starter in 2015, making 13 starts (missing 3 with injury). However, he was only a league average starter when on the field, according to Pro Football Focus. Widely considered the top cornerback on the open market, Maxwell is expected to get more than 10+ million dollars annually, which would be a massive overpay. He’s still inexperienced. He hasn’t played as well as people think. And he could easily struggle outside of Seattle’s system and supporting cast.

OLB Malcolm Smith

Malcolm Smith was Super Bowl MVP in Super Bowl 47, one of the more anonymous Super Bowl MVP’s in NFL history. Smith played a good game, but there were more deserving candidates, as Smith didn’t even play half the snaps in that game (34 of 71). He just happened to make a few splash plays that we remember. Smith also wasn’t even a starter that season, playing just 490 snaps. However, he was still Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker that season, despite the limited action, with no one playing more snaps and grading out better. He’s still inexperienced and he struggled in 2014, but he’s overall played well when given a chance and could be starting somewhere next season.

DT Kevin Williams

Kevin Williams was available into June last off-season, even though he had graded out above average in 7 straight seasons on Pro Football Focus, including in the top-9 from 2007-2012 and 27th in 2013. The reason for that is because he was going into his age 34 season and had a hard time finding someone who would pay him what he wanted. He eventually agreed to a 1-year, 2.1 million dollar deal with the Seahawks. He came within a play of his first Super Bowl victory, but he graded out below average for the first time in Pro Football Focus’ existence (since 2007) and played just 445 snaps. Now going into his age 35 season, he could be close to the end of the line. He’ll have to settle for a cheap, one-year deal somewhere this off-season if he wants to keep playing.

G James Carpenter

James Carpenter was a surprise 1st round pick by the Seahawks in 2011 and he’s been a rare mistake of the John Schneider front office. He’s started just 39 games in 4 seasons (31 at left guard, 8 at right tackle, where they originally wanted him to play). That’s a result of several injuries and overall poor play, as he’s graded out well below average in all 4 seasons. His versatility could serve him well on the open market, but it’s debatable whether struggling at multiple spots counts as versatility. He shouldn’t be guaranteed a starting spot for 2015.

Cap Casualty Candidates

TE Zach Miller

Zach Miller was signed to a 5-year, 33 million dollar deal four off-seasons ago, but he was forced to take a pay cut down to 6 million over the final 2 years of the deal last off-season. Miller followed that up by missing 13 games with injury in 2014. Owed 3 million non-guaranteed in 2015, Miller is not expected to be back in his age 30 season. The Seahawks can save that whole amount on the cap by letting him go.

DT Brandon Mebane

The Seahawks signed Mebane to a 5-year, 25 million dollar deal four off-seasons ago. He was great in 2013 on the Super Bowl team, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked defensive tackle, but that wasn’t the norm for him, as he graded out below average in the other 3 seasons of the contract. In 2014, he missed 7 games with a torn hamstring and played just 289 snaps. Going into an age 30 contract season, Mebane is owed 5.5 million guaranteed, which might just be too much for him, as good as he was in 2013. The Seahawks would save that entire amount on the cap by letting him go.

DT Tony McDaniel

Like Mebane, McDaniel had a strong 2013 season that looks fluky when you look at the rest of his career. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked defensive tackle in 2013, but that’s one of just two seasons where he’s graded out above average in the last 8 years. In 2014, he ranked 72nd out of 81 eligible defensive tackles. All of the guaranteed money on the 2-year, 5.75 million dollar deal he signed last off-season has been paid out, so the Seahawks can cut him ahead of an age 30 contract year and save 3 million in cash and cap space.

OT Russell Okung

Russell Okung was the 6th overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft and he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked offensive tackle, but that type of dominance has been rare from him and he generally hasn’t lived up to his potential. He’s graded out below average in his other 4 seasons in the NFL, never played all 16 games in a season, and missed 21 games in 5 seasons with injury. He’ll probably be back for his contract year in 2015, but the Seahawks can save 5 million in cash and cap space by letting him go, so it’ll probably be a consideration.

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San Diego Chargers re-sign CB Brandon Flowers

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chargers, Uncategorized

Flowers was Pro Football Focus’ 85th ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible in 2013, which led to his release from Kansas City, but, aside from that, he’s been one of the best cornerbacks in football over the last 6 years. From 2009-2012, Flowers graded out in the top-9 among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons, the only cornerback in the NFL who could say that, and then he bounced back in 2014, grading out 15th with the Chargers on a one-year prove it deal.

The 5-10 189 pounder doesn’t fit every scheme and he was a horrible fit for Bob Sutton’s man press scheme in Kansas City in 2013, but San Diego clearly knows how to use him and he’s one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL when used properly. He’s only going into his age 29 season and this 4-year deal worth a total of 36 million is a very good value for him, considering Kareem Jackson got 8.5 million annually and Byron Maxwell is expected to clear 10 million annually.

Grade: A

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Buffalo Bills extend RB LeSean McCoy

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bills, Uncategorized

When the Bills swapped Kiko Alonso for LeSean McCoy earlier this week, a lot of people didn’t get it. After all, McCoy is a better player than Alonso. While that might be true, it could easily not be a true a year or two from now, as Alonso is going into his age 25 season and McCoy is going into his age 27 season at a position with a very short careerspan. Then there’s the issue of money. McCoy was owed 24.5 million over the final 3 seasons of his deal, while Alonso was owed 1.7 million over the final 2 seasons of his deal, with an option to be signed cheaply for 2017 as well as a restricted free agent.

If that wasn’t bad enough, the Bills made matters worse by ripping up McCoy’s original deal and replacing it with a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal with 26.25 million guaranteed. They kind of had to do that, as McCoy was not happy about being traded to Buffalo, but it’s still way too much money. If McCoy plays like he did in 2013 for each of the next 3 seasons, he’ll be worth that 26.25 million guaranteed, but that’s doubtful and not just because of his age.

That 2013 season is the only season he’s ever graded out above 10th on Pro Football Focus among running backs. He’s a good running back with one great season on his resume. He’s not a great running back. Given how much the running back position has been devalued in the NFL, I’m not even sure McCoy would have gotten this kind of deal if he was a free agent this off-season. The Bills are giving him this deal AND giving up a promising young linebacker for him. It’s going to backfire long-term for a team that needs to retain Jerry Hughes and Marcell Dareus long-term and add to an offensive line that ranked 32nd on Pro Football Focus in run blocking last season. For comparison, Philadelphia ranked 1st. McCoy can’t be happy about that. Maybe that’s why he demanded this extension.

Grade: D

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Green Bay Packers 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Packers, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Middle Linebacker

AJ Hawk and Brad Jones were the week 1 starters for the Packers at middle linebacker last season, but both had atrocious seasons. Hawk was the starter the whole season, but graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 52nd ranked middle linebacker out of 60 eligible. Jones only made the one start and played just 211 snaps on the season so he didn’t qualify for Pro Football Focus’ middle linebacker rankings, but no middle linebacker played fewer snaps than he did and graded out worse. Both could be cap casualties this off-season, while reserve Jamari Lattimore, who played 366 snaps last season, is a free agent this off-season. Sam Barrington is a young player they like, but he struggled on 285 snaps in 2014, after playing just 1 snap as a 7th round rookie in 2013. Things were so bad at the position that they played Clay Matthews inside from time to time this season, but he’s much better outside so that’s not a long-term solution. They need help at this position badly this off-season.

Defensive Tackle

BJ Raji missed the entire 2014 season with a torn biceps, leaving mediocre journeyman Letroy Guion to man the nose. Guion predictably struggled, grading out below average, and he was also arrested in the off-season for possession of marijuana and a firearm. He’s a free agent this off-season, as is Raji. This is a position they’ll need to find help at this off-season.

Tight End

As good as the Packers’ receiving corps is, they really didn’t get anything from the tight end position last season. Andrew Quarless led the team with 29 catches for 323 yards and 3 touchdowns from the tight end position. Richard Rodgers, a 2014 3rd round pick, could be better in his 2nd season in the league in 2015, but this is still somewhere they could add this off-season.

Offensive Tackle

At left tackle, David Bakhtiari has made all 32 starts over the past 2 seasons, since the Packers drafted him in the 4th round in 2013, but he’s graded out below average in each of those 2 seasons. Meanwhile, right tackle Bryan Bulaga is a free agent and could easily not be back next season. If he leaves, they could move Bakhtiari to right tackle, where he might find life easier, but they would need to find a new left tackle, which won’t be easy this off-season. Either way, offensive tackle help will be needed if Bulaga isn’t retained.

Wide Receiver

If the Packers are able to bring Randall Cobb back, they’ll have a strong trio with him, Jordy Nelson, and Davante Adams, a 2014 2nd round pick. If Cobb isn’t back, all of a sudden, they’ll have problems. Adams flashed as a rookie, but overall graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 99th ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible. He could be a lot better in his 2nd year in the league, but he’ll be tough to trust as a starter and their depth behind him is suspect.

Defensive End

Mike Daniels has been fantastic as a starting 3-4 defensive end over the past 2 seasons, but they need help opposite him. Datone Jones was drafted in the first round in 2013 to be a starter and he flashed last season, but he’s played just 586 snaps in 2 seasons. He should have a bigger role in 2014, but their depth is suspect. Josh Boyd struggled in 2014 and might be moving to nose tackle in 2015.

Key Free Agents

WR Randall Cobb

Randall Cobb didn’t see a ton of action as a 2nd round rookie in 2011, but he had a strong, efficient 2012 season, catching 80 passes for 954 yards and 8 touchdowns on 102 targets (78.4%) and 422 routes run (2.26 yards per route run). He was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked wide receiver that season. Cobb was set for a bigger role in 2013 and everyone expected a breakout year. He was on his way to that before missing 10 games with a broken leg and finished the season with 31 catches for 433 yards and 4 touchdowns in just 6 games. In 2014, he played all 16 games and picked up right where he left off. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked wide receiver and caught 91 passes for 1287 yards and 12 touchdowns on 125 targets (72.8%) and 574 routes run (2.24 yards per route run). Only going into his age 25 season, Cobb is going to get paid a lot of money on his next contract, wherever he ends up signing.

OT Bryan Bulaga

Bulaga has been a starter for the Packers since they drafted him in the 1st round in 2010, making his debut as a starter in week 5 of 2010. However, despite that, he’s only made 48 starts in 5 seasons, as he’s missed 30 games with injuries over that time period, including all of 2013 with a torn ACL. When on the field, he’s been up and down. He struggled mightily as a rookie, grading out 71st out of 78 eligible in 2010, but he ranked 7th among offensive tackles on 12 starts in 2011. In 2012, he graded out below average in 9 starts before missing all of 2013, but he returned in 2014 to make 15 starts and grade out 16th among offensive tackles. He’s easily the best offensive tackle available on the open market, despite his inconsistent past, and he’ll get a good amount of money on the open market, but he’ll be a risky signing for whoever signs him.

CB Tramon Williams

Williams is going into his age 32 season so he won’t command a huge annual salary or much if any guaranteed money beyond 2015, but he should still be a solid starter next season. He’s not the player he was in 2009, when he graded out 9th, or 2010, when he graded out 8th, but he’s graded out above average in 6 straight seasons and made 95 of 96 starts over that time period. Something around 3 years, 17 million, with 7 million guaranteed would be appropriate for him. Seattle has been rumored to be interested in him, as they have a cornerback need and GM John Schneider was part of the team that originally brought Williams to Green Bay. A return to Green Bay is also an option.

CB Davon House

House, a 2011 4th round pick, has been buried on the depth chart in Green Bay over the past 4 seasons, playing just 1201 defensive snaps combined over that time period, all over the past 3 seasons. However, he’s flashed whenever he’s been on the field, grading out either above average or just slightly below average in each of the last 3 seasons. House reportedly is looking for 7 million dollars annually on the open market. I don’t expect him to get that, even on a weak cornerback market, but I do expect him to be starting somewhere next year to be compensated accordingly.

DE BJ Raji

BJ Raji was reportedly offered a 5-year, 40 million dollar extension two off-seasons ago, heading into his contract year, after a 2012 season in which he graded out 7th among 3-4 defensive ends, and turned it down. He has to be kicking himself now. Raji had a horrible contract year, grading out dead last among 3-4 defensive ends in 2013. As a result, he had to settle for a one-year, 4 million dollar prove it deal with the Packers, after not finding anything to his liking on the open market. Things went from bad to worse for Raji, as he tore his biceps and missed the entire 2014 season. Versatile enough to play anywhere on a 3-man defensive line, inconsistency has always been an issue for Raji. After barely playing as a rookie, he ranked 35th out of defensive tackles in 2010, had a strong playoff run en route to the Packers’ Super Bowl victory, but ranked 87th out of 88 eligible defensive tackles in 2011, before that strong 2012 campaign. Now he has a serious injury on his resume. He won’t have a big market this off-season.

DT Letroy Guion

With Raji out for the season, Guion started 15 games at nose tackle, but he struggled, grading out 61st out of 81 eligible defensive tackles. This is nothing new for him. He’s graded out below average in 6 of 7 seasons since he came into the league as a 5th round pick in 2008, including 5 straight. In 2012, he ranked 86 out of 86th eligible defensive tackles and in 2013 he was 60th out of 69 eligible. Especially after getting arrested for possession of marijuana and a firearm this off-season, he won’t draw big market.

Cap Casualty Candidates

MLB Brad Jones

Brad Jones was drafted in the 7th round in 2009 by the Packers as an outside linebacker, but, after playing a combined 763 snaps in the first 3 years of his career at outside linebacker, the Packers moved him inside in 2012 and he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked middle linebacker on 687 snaps. That earned him a 3-year, 11.75 million dollar deal, but he’s been a massive disappointment since signing that deal, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 28th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible in 2013 and playing just 211 snaps in 2014. In 2014, no one played fewer snaps and graded out worse than Jones at middle linebacker. He’s not a serious candidate to be a starter inside next season so the Packers will probably let him go to save 3.75 million in cash and cap space for 2015.

MLB AJ Hawk

AJ Hawk has made 139 starts for the Packers since they drafted him 5th overall in 2006, but he’s only graded out above average once on Pro Football Focus in their 8 year history and the Packers have cut his salary and renegotiated his contract several times. He might be at the end of his line with the Packers, going into his age 31 season. He came off the bench 3 times last season, the first time he played in a game in which he wasn’t a starter in his career, and he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 52nd ranked middle linebacker out of 60 eligible. The Packers can save 3.5 million in cash and cap space by letting him go this off-season.

OLB Mike Neal

Mike Neal, a 2010 2nd round pick, started his career as an oft used 3-4 defensive end, but the Packers moved him to 3-4 outside linebacker for 2013, a weird move considering his 6-3 294 pound size. Neal struggled in his first season at outside linebacker, grading out 40th out of 42 eligible, but the Packers gave him a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal last off-season. He wasn’t better in 2014, grading out 46th out of 46 eligible. With Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, and Nick Perry all under contract for 2015, the Packers don’t need to bring Neal back at a non-guaranteed 3 million dollar salary. They’d save that entire amount on the cap by letting him go this off-season.

OLB Julius Peppers

When the Packers signed Julius Peppers to a 3-year, 26 million dollar deal last off-season, it was more of a 1-year, 8.5 million dollar prove it deal for an aging future Hall-of-Famer, who graded out below average in 2013 with the Bears and got released. That was all that was guaranteed in that deal. Peppers certainly did prove it, flashing vintage form in his first experience in a 3-4 as a much needed edge rusher opposite Clay Matthews. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker. Still, he’s going into his age 35 season so he’s no guarantee to be back at his non-guaranteed 9.5 million dollar salary for 2015. The Packers could save 7 million on the cap by letting him go this off-season and have him off their cap completely for 2016. A restructured deal is also an option.

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Indianapolis Colts 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Colts, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Running Back

The Colts thought they were set at running back when they traded a 2014 1st round pick for Trent Richardson, who went 3rd overall in 2012. That pick ended up being 26th overall and you could argue the Colts were buying low on Richardson at the time, but it turns out Cleveland sold them a dud. Richardson has rushed for 977 yards and 6 touchdowns on 316 carries (3.09 YPC) in his 2 years with the Colts. He also has had issues with the coaching staff, which got him suspended for their playoff game against New England and the first week of next season. The Colts will try to get out of his fully guaranteed contract for 2015, but even if they don’t, I expect them to just let him go and eat the money. They don’t see Richardson as being worth their 53 man roster. Ahmad Bradshaw led the Colts in total yards per game by a running back last year and was a fantastic overall player. He rushed for 425 yards and 2 touchdowns on 90 carries (4.72 YPC) and added 38 catches for 300 yards and 6 more touchdowns through the air. However, he went down for the season with a season ending injury once again. Bradshaw has had injury problems his whole career, missing 25 games in the last 4 seasons combined. He’s also a free agent going into his age 29 season. They can’t trust he’ll be their lead back again 2015. Boom Herron rushed for 4.50 YPC on 78 regular season carries, but saw that figure dip to 3.78 YPC on 45 post-season carries. He also fumbled 4 times on 166 touches in the regular and post-season combined. He’s best as a complementary #2 back behind another back they add this off-season. They’ve been linked to Frank Gore, DeMarco Murray, and a reunion with Ahmad Bradshaw. It’s also a deep running back draft.

Center

AQ Shipley began the season as the starting center and, even though Pro Football Focus gave him positive marks, he was benched for undrafted rookie Jonotthan Harrison. Shipley is expected to be non-tendered as a restricted free agent this off-season. Harrison played about as you’d expect from an undrafted rookie, grading out 35th out of 41 eligible. Khaled Holmes was drafted in the 4th round in 2013 to be the center of the future, but he’s struggled on 193 snaps thus far in his career. Help is needed at the position.

Guard

Jack Mewhort did a solid job as a rookie, grading out about average in 14 starts, 13 at left guard and one at right tackle. He should be locked in as the starter at left guard going into 2015. However, right guard is a huge hole. Lance Louis and Hugh Thornton split time there last season and, despite limited action, graded out 62nd and 48th respectively out of 78 eligible guards on Pro Football Focus. Louis has struggled throughout his career, never grading out above average in any season since entering the league in 2009, was out of the league entirely in 2013, and now is going into his age 30 season. Thornton, meanwhile, has shown nothing since the Colts drafted him in the 3rd round in 2013, struggling last year and grading out 69th out of 81 eligible on 889 snaps as a rookie. Neither one is a long-term starting option and the same is true of Donald Thomas, who has played 2 games over the last 2 seasons thanks to injury and could be a cap casualty this off-season. They need to find a long-term starter this off-season.

Outside Linebacker

Robert Mathis had a strong 2013 season, but he missed all of 2014 with a torn Achilles and he’ll be in his age 34 season in 2015. It’s very possible he’s near the end of the line. The Colts predictably didn’t get any pass rush in his absence, as Bjoern Werner was inconsistent in his 2nd season in the league, after being drafted in the first round in 2013, and Erik Walden also struggled. Both players graded out below average. Edge rush is a need. The connection between Chuck Pagano, former Ravens’ offensive coordinator, and Pernell McPhee, a top free agent edge rusher formerly of the Ravens, is obvious.

Cornerback

Vontae Davis and Greg Toler seem locked in as the Colts’ starting cornerbacks for 2015, even though the latter graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 99th ranked cornerback out of 108 eligible in 2014. However, they need to add depth at the position and competition for Toler as #3 cornerback Darius Butler is a free agent this off-season and might not be back. He’s graded out below average in each of the last 2 seasons, so maybe they should bring in an upgrade in his place.

Defensive End

Arthur Jones had a rough first year in Indianapolis, after signing a 5-year, 33 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season. Jones missed 7 games with injury and struggled when on the field, grading out 40th out of 47 eligible 3-4 defensive ends on just 371 snaps. He could bounce back in his 2nd season with the Colts in 2015, but Cory Redding, arguably their best defensive lineman, is a free agent going into his age 35 season this off-season. If he retires or leaves as a free agent, they’ll need to replenish depth. Adding more depth isn’t a bad idea either way.

Wide Receiver

TY Hilton is arguably one of the best receivers in the game and Donte Moncrief is a promising 2014 3rd round pick who will have a bigger role in his 2nd year in the league after flashing as a rookie, but the Colts need depth at the position. Hakeem Nicks and Reggie Wayne are both coming off of awful seasons in which they graded out 105th and 106th respectively out of 110 eligible wide receivers. Both are free agents and I don’t expect either one to be back. They’ve already said that they won’t be bringing Wayne back. That will leave them devoid of wide receivers with any sort of experience after Hilton.

Safety

La’Ron Landry was a starter for the Colts at safety going into last season, but he was suspended for 4 games due to performance enhancing drugs and didn’t regain his starting job upon return. He graded out slightly above average on 417 snaps, but he was below average on 799 snaps in the first year of his 4-year, 24 million dollar deal in 2013. He’s a cap casualty candidate, while Mike Adams and Sergio Brown, who finished the season as the starters, are both free agents this off-season, Adams going into his age 34 season. Depending on what happens at this position this off-season, this could be somewhere they need to add.

Offensive Tackle

Gosder Cherilus will be back in 2015 in the 3rd year of a 5-year, 34.5 million dollar deal he signed two off-seasons ago. The Colts would take a 1.8 million dollar cap hit by letting him go. However, Cherilus graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 70th ranked offensive tackle out of 84 eligible on the right side this season and finished the season on IR with a groin and shoulder injury and had off-season knee surgery. Cherilus is going into his age 31 season and the Colts need competition for the injury prone player who struggled in 2014.

Key Free Agents

S Mike Adams

Mike Adams has been in the league for 11 years, since 2004, but last season was arguably the best of his career, as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked safety and made the first Pro-Bowl of his career. This is the same guy whose career looked like it could have been over until the Colts signed him in June of last off-season. He’s going into his age 34 season and anyone who signs him this off-season can’t expect him to repeat the best season of his career again, but he was a solid starter in 2011, 2012, and 2013, grading out above average in 2011 and 2012 and only slightly below average in 2013. He should still be considered a starting caliber safety for 2015. There’s reportedly a lot of mutual interest between Adams and the Colts in a reunion.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw

Bradshaw’s 4.60 career YPC is very impressive and he’s also very useful on passing downs, both as a pass catcher and a pass blocker. However, injuries have been a serious problem for him. He’s always dealt with nagging injuries throughout his career, only playing all 16 games once in 8 seasons, but over the past 4 seasons they’ve especially cost him, as he’s missed 25 games combined in that time period. Last season, he was off to a great start to his season, rushing for 425 yards and 2 touchdowns on 90 carries (4.72 YPC) and added 38 catches for 300 yards and 6 more touchdowns through the air. However, he broke his ankle and missed the final 6 games of the season. Despite just 391 snaps, he was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked running back overall. Going into his age 29 season, Bradshaw is a serious injury risk, but he could be a solid buy low candidate on a buyer’s market for running backs.

DE Cory Redding

Redding was arguably the best defensive lineman the Colts had last season, at least he was in terms of Pro Football Focus grade. He finished the season as their 18th ranked 3-4 defensive end, struggling against the run (just like the rest of the front 7), but getting good pass rush. The problem is he’s going into his age 35 season so it’s hard to trust him going forward. The 12-year veteran also had a strong season in 2013, grading out 11th at his position, but he ranked 27th out of 34 eligible in 2012 and could regress to that level in 2015 given his age. Still, he’s graded out above average in 3 of the last 4 seasons and he won’t break anyone’s bank so he’ll be a solid, cheap signing for a team with a need on the defensive line. There’s mutual interest between him and the Colts in a reunion. A reunion with his former team the Baltimore Ravens, who have a depth need on the defensive line, is another option.

S Sergio Brown

Sergio Brown was an undrafted free agent out of Notre Dame in 2010 and flashed on 94 snaps as a rookie with the Patriots. As a result he was given a starting job in 2011, but quickly lost it for poor performance and went on to play just 61 snaps over the next 2 seasons, both with Indianapolis. However, Brown got another chance at a starting job in 2014 when Laron Landry got suspended and made the most of it, playing well and keeping the job after Landry’s return. All in all, he made 8 starts and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 24th ranked safety. He might get some looks as a starter on the open market this off-season, but any team that signs him needs to remember his history prior to 2014 isn’t great.

CB Darius Butler

Butler was a 2nd round bust of the Patriots in 2009 and bounced around from the Patriots to the Panthers to the Colts by 2012. Butler graded out below average in 2 of his first 3 seasons in the league, but had the best season of his career in 2012 with the Colts, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 31st ranked cornerback on 380 snaps, earning a 2-year deal worth 4 million that off-season. Butler remained inconsistent though, grading out below average in each of the last 2 seasons. Butler has never played more than 704 snaps in a season, averages 501 snaps a season, and has graded out below average in 4 of 6 seasons in the NFL. He’s a purely a depth cornerback and should come cheap this off-season.

WR Hakeem Nicks

Nicks is only going into his age 27 season, but he’s had a swift fall from grace thanks to leg injuries and will have a hard time finding work this off-season. Nicks, a 2009 1st round pick, looked like one of the best young receivers in the NFL from 2009-2011. He averaged 2.30 yards per route run in 2009 on 344 routes run, 2.32 yards per route run in 2010 on 453 routes run, and 2.08 yards per route run in 2011 on 572 routes run. However, those averages fell to 1.74 yards per route run on 398 routes run in 2012 and 1.70 yards per route run on 527 routes run in 2013. He was forced to settle for a 1-year, prove it deal with the Colts last off-season, worth 3.6 million, and he didn’t even come close to being worth that in easily the worst season of his career. Nicks was Pro Football Focus’ 105th ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible. He caught 38 passes for 405 yards and 4 touchdowns on 68 attempts (55.9%) and 425 routes run (0.95 yards per route run). He was benched down the stretch for rookie Donte Moncrief and saw just 17 snaps in the AFC Championship. Injuries have completely sapped his explosiveness. He’ll have to settle for another one-year deal this off-season and won’t come close to getting 3.6 million.

WR Reggie Wayne

Reggie Wayne has had a fantastic career could be bound for the Hall-of-Fame, but when he suffered a torn ACL in the middle of his age 35 season in 2013, it was a death sentence for his career. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. It looks like Wayne’s last 1000 yard season will be 2012, looking back at his career. His 2013 and 2014 seasons were the two lowest yardage totals of his career since 2003. It was understandable in 2013, as he only played 7 games, but in 2014 he played 13 and just did not even resemble himself. He caught 64 passes for 779 yards and 2 touchdowns on 110 attempts (58.2%) and 570 routes run (1.37 yards per route run) and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 106th ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible. Going into his age 37 season, Wayne has already been told by the Colts that he will not be back in 2015. He reportedly wants to keep playing, but the call might never come.

Cap Casualty Candidates

RB Trent Richardson

Trent Richardson’s tenure with the Colts went about as bad as it could have. After they acquired him mid-season in 2013 for what turned out to be the 26th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Richardson rushed for 977 yards and 6 touchdowns on 316 carries (3.09 YPC) in his 2 years with the Colts. He also has had issues with the coaching staff, which got him suspended for their playoff game against New England and the first week of next season. The Colts will try to get out of his fully guaranteed contract for 2015, but even if they don’t, I expect them to just let him go and eat the money. They don’t see Richardson as being worth their 53 man roster.

OLB Shaun Phillips

The Titans signed Phillips to a 2-year, 4.5 million dollar deal last off-season, but ended up waiving him mid-season after he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 43rd ranked 3-4 outside linebacker out of 46 eligible on 362 snaps. No one played fewer snaps and graded out worse at his position. The Colts claimed him on waivers, but he played 98 nondescript snaps for the Colts. He’s not worth the 2.65 million non-guaranteed he’s owed next season and the Colts can save that entire amount on the cap by letting him go.

G Donald Thomas

The Colts signed Thomas to a 4-year, 14 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, which looked like a good idea at the time as Thomas graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 21st ranked guard in 2012 in 7 starts with the Patriots and looked like a budding starter. However, Thomas played just 72 snaps in 2 seasons with the Colts, missing 30 games with injury. The Colts can save 3.25 million on the cap and 3.5 million in cash this off-season by letting him go.

S LaRon Landry

The Colts signed Landry to a 4-year, 24 million dollar deal two off-season, but Landry graded out below average in 2013 on 799 snaps (he missed 4 games with injury). He entered 2014 as the starter, but lost his starting job after he got suspended for 4 games for performance enhancing drugs. He overall graded out above average on 417 snaps in 2014 and Mike Adams and Sergio Brown, who ended the season as the starters, are both free agents, and the Colts aren’t in dire need of cap space, but they could still cut Landry to save 2.25 million in cap space and 4 million in cash this off-season. He’ll also be off their cap entirely next off-season if they do that, which could help them extend Andrew Luck long-term. He’s going into his age 31 season in 2015 anyway.

OLB Robert Mathis

Robert Mathis graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013, as he led the NFL in sacks with 19, but he missed all of 2014 with a torn Achilles and is now going into his age 34 season. The Colts gave him a 1-year, 4 million dollar extension mid-season to keep him from being a free agent this off-season, but it was really more of an option for them because it didn’t give him any guaranteed money. The Colts could cut Mathis this off-season and save 4 million in cash and cap space. They probably won’t do that, but he reportedly had a setback with his recovery (no surprise given his age) and there’s a chance they could pull the trigger at some point.

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