Year: 2015

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (3-8) at Chicago Bears (5-6)

The 49ers have been the worst team in the NFL, by a wide margin, according to rate of moving the chains differential. They have a -11.74% differential and no other team in the NFL is worse than -6.29%. While the 49ers have been half passable at home, going 3-3 (4-2 ATS), including victories over winning opponents in the Falcons and Vikings, they’ve been horrendous on the road, losing all 5 games (1-4 ATS) by an average of 21.0 points per game. Their rate of moving the chains differential is -17.18% on the road, a truly awful showing, and really bad news considering they have a road game this week.

The Bears, meanwhile, rank 17th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve also been a lot better offensively when Jay Cutler has been healthy, moving the chains at a 72.16% rate in the 9 games he’s been healthy, as opposed to 56.25% in the 2 games he was hurt. Not only is Cutler healthy, but so are running back Matt Forte and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, huge parts of their offense. This will be just their 5th game having all three of them healthy this season. Given that, they shouldn’t have much of a problem winning by a touchdown or more at home against the 49ers.

Chicago Bears 24 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: Chicago -7

Confidence: Medium

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Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (6-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)

Matt Hasselbeck is 4-0 as the Colts’ starter and the Colts have moved the chains at a 73.60% rate in his 4 starts, as opposed to 69.66% in Andrew Luck’s 7 starts. Certainly getting Luck back healthy for the stretch run and playoffs is very important because, at his best, he’s way better than Hasselbeck, but Luck hasn’t played well so far this year and it’s definitely been nice for them to have a capable game manager backup quarterback like Hasselbeck this year. The Colts’ defense has also been better than it has been in recent years, though losing talented rookie defensive end Henry Anderson for the season a couple weeks ago hurts. He was a big part of why they improved. The Colts are also missing left tackle Anthony Castonzo and middle linebacker Jerrell Freeman, also key players.

The Steelers rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, but have moved the chains at a 75.00% rate in the 7 games that Ben Roethlisberger has played, as opposed to 63.64% in their other 4 games. However, they’re far from completely healthy around him, missing running back Le’Veon Bell, center Maurkice Pouncey, and left tackle Kelvin Beachum with serious injuries, three players who were key to the Steelers’ strong offense last season. Of course, if Roethlisberger continues to play like he did last week in Seattle, it might not matter that they’re missing so much talent around him, but, then again, their improved defense looked pretty bad last week.

Considering the Colts rank 14th in rate of moving the chains differential and have played better when Hasselbeck has played, this line seems high at a touchdown, even with the Colts also banged up. The Colts are also in a better spot, as they go to the lowly Jaguars next week (where they’re expected to be 1 point road favorites), while the Steelers have to go to Cincinnati. Underdogs (like the Colts) are 167-98 ATS before being favorites (as the Colts will be next week) when their opponent will next be underdogs (as the Steelers will be next week). The Steelers could also easily be 6 point underdogs in Cincinnati, arguably the toughest game of their season, and teams are 49-83 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point underdogs. If they were healthier, this would be a higher confidence pick, but I’d still put money on the touchdown with the Colts.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Indianapolis Colts 24

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +7

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (6-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)

The Falcons started the season a surprising 5-0, but have since fallen back to earth, losing 5 of 6, putting them in a fight to even make the playoffs. Considering 3 of those 5 wins were by a touchdown or less and the best team they beat was probably the Giants (a 24-20 win), that’s not too much of a surprise, but the fact remains that they’ve lost to New Orleans, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Indianapolis, and Minnesota, all teams they were favored against. Their only win in their last 5 games was by 3 in Tennessee, when the Titans were playing without starting quarterback Marcus Mariota. The Falcons have lost 7 straight games against the spread, making them just the 30th team since 1989 to do that.

That seems to have caused the odds makers to knock them down, to the point where they might be underrated now. Teams are 15-8 ATS since 1989 as underdogs off of 7+ straight against the spread losses. I know it’s a sample size, but, again this doesn’t happen very often and it makes sense that teams in this spot would cover at a higher rate. The Falcons rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Buccaneers rank 23rd (and are missing defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, arguably their best player) and yet the Buccaneers just 2 point favorites at home, after being favored by 1.5 at home last week. I love to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, so the Falcons look like a good pick in this one.

The Falcons are also in a great spot. They lost to the Buccaneers earlier this year as home favorites in Baltimore, but teams are 54-30 ATS as divisional road underdogs in a regular season rematch against a divisional opponent they previously lost to as home favorites. Besides, the Buccaneers have had next to no homefield advantage in recent years so the location of this game doesn’t matter as much as a normal divisional matchup would. The Buccaneers are just 17-35 ATS at home since 2009. If we were getting a field goal with the Falcons, they’d be my Pick of the Week, and I’d still put money on them as 2 point underdogs. I’d take Atlanta up to field goal favorites.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +2

Confidence: High

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Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Minnesota Vikings (8-3)

The Seahawks are in a great spot here this week. While the Vikings have to play arguably the toughest game of their season in 4 days on the road on Thursday Night Football (in Arizona against the Cardinals), the Seahawks have an easy road game in Baltimore on deck, against a Ravens team that is one of the worst in the NFL. The Vikings are expected to be 6 point road underdogs, while the Seahawks are expected to be 4.5 point road favorites. Teams are 74-51 ATS before being favorites of 4 or more since 2012. On top of that, underdogs (like the Seahawks) are 167-98 ATS before being favorites (as the Seahawks will be next week) when their opponent will next be underdogs (as the Vikings will be next week). Making matters even worse for the Vikings is the short week ahead, as teams are 46-70 ATS as favorites before Thursday Night Football since 2008.

We are only getting 1 point with the Seahawks, which is unfortunate. The Seahawks only rank a few spots higher than the Vikings in rate of moving the chains differential (6th vs. 12th), which suggests this line could be accurate. However, the Seahawks have faced a much tougher schedule than the Vikings have. The Seahawks have played 5 teams with winning records, including Green Bay, Carolina, Arizona, and Cincinnati, but the Vikings have played just 3 teams with winning records, none of whom rank higher than 9th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Seahawks are probably the Vikings’ toughest opponent of the season so far, while the Seahawks have already played 4 or 5 better teams than the Vikings. The Seahawks are also not missing one of the top defensive linemen in the NFL, like the Vikings are this week, missing defensive tackle Linval Josepy.

The Seahawks are relatively healthy right now. They’re missing defensive tackle Jordan Hill and running back Marshawn Lynch, but Hill isn’t that important and rookie phenom Thomas Rawls has run much better than Lynch this season, as Lynch has been banged up all year. Rawls is second in the NFL in yards per carry and the Seahawks have won 2 of their last 3, after a 4-4 start. They do seem to be gaining a head of steam in an NFL that feels weak across the board this season. The Seahawks are 19-4 ATS in the final 8 games of the regular season in the Russell Wilson era (since 2012) and 23-6 ATS in the Pete Carroll era (since 2011). That makes sense as this organization is so well run from top to bottom. Teams like that always seem to get better down the stretch, as long as they stay healthy. I wish we were getting more points with the Seahawks, but they’re still my Pick of the Week.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Minnesota Vikings 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Seattle +1

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (7-4) at Detroit Lions (4-7)

After an impressive 6-0 start, the Packers have lost 4 of their last 5 games, including two straight home losses, to the Chicago Bears last week and to these Detroit Lions three weeks ago. The line has really adjusted in the last week, as Green Bay, who was favored by 6 points on the early line last week, is now favored by just 3 points. I love fading significant week-to-week line movements, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. Aaron Rodgers is also 23-12 ATS off of a loss in his career.

However, as much as I love fading significant week-to-week line movements and as much as I love taking a quarterback like Rodgers off of a loss, I can’t take the Packers this week, even as mere 3 point favorites. I don’t think the line movement is an overreaction, as much as it is a correction. The Packers’ offense hasn’t been the same all season, since losing Jordy Nelson to a torn ACL in the pre-season, and, while their defense was covering for them early in the year, it’s regressed back to normal over the past few weeks, hence the 1-4 stretch.

The Packers certainly are not a bad team, ranking 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they’re not good enough to be favored here by a field goal, as Detroit ranks 25th in that statistic. That might sound like a big difference, but most of the league is bunched up in the middle this year. Green Bay is closer to 25th than they are to 4th. I can’t have any sort of confidence in the Lions either, without getting a couple more points, but they should be the right side, especially since the public is all over Green Bay. The public always loses money in the long run, so I like to fade them whenever it makes sense. It’s a no confidence pick of Detroit to start week 13.

Green Bay Packers 24 Detroit Lions 23

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3

Confidence: None

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2015 Week 12 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Week 12

Straight Up: 9-7

Against the Spread: 10-6

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence: 1-0

Medium Confidence: 5-1

Low Confidence: 3-3

No Confidence: 1-1

Upset Picks: 2-2

2015

Straight Up: 103-73

Against the Spread: 76-96-4

Pick of the Week: 5-7

High Confidence: 9-8

Medium Confidence: 23-24-1

Low Confidence: 20-32-1

No Confidence: 19-27-2

Upset Picks: 12-20

Since 2013

Straight Up: 453-255-2 (64.0%)

Against the Spread: 374-319-17 (54.0%)

Pick of the Week: 24-20-2 (54.5%)

High Confidence: 43-29-1 (59.7%)

Medium Confidence: 112-79-1 (58.6%)

Low Confidence: 95-92-6 (50.8%)

No Confidence: 100-99-7 (50.3%)

Upset Picks: 57-75 (43.2%)

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Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, Browns, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (3-7) at Cleveland Browns (2-8)

This has been the season from hell for the Ravens. After going 11-5, winning a playoff game, and finishing the season 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential a year ago, the Ravens lost outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, wide receiver Torrey Smith, and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak this off-season. And then during the season, they’ve lost 1st round pick wide receiver (and Torrey Smith replacement) Breshad Perriman, wide receiver Steve Smith, outside linebacker Terrell Suggs, center Jeremy Zuttah, and, as of last week, quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Justin Forsett for the season with injury. They’re also likely going to be missing offensive linemen Kelechi Osemele and Eugene Monroe with injury this week.

As a result, the Ravens are 3-7, rank 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, and are even less talented than that suggests now with Flacco, Forsett, Osemele, and Monroe all out. The Ravens have to go with a backfield of quarterback Matt Schaub, a 34-year-old making his first start since 2013, when he really struggled with the Texans, and running back Javorius Allen, a 4th round rookie who has averaged 3.89 yards per carry on 64 carries in his career, behind a patchwork offensive line. That has flipped this line from Baltimore being favored by 2.5 on the early line last week to now being 3.5 point underdogs.

The Browns aren’t any better though and they might be worse. The Browns rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential and shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal against anyone other than San Francisco. It’s possible looking back in a week that I’ll say that the Ravens should be added to that list and it’s very possible I don’t know quite how bad the Ravens will be without Flacco, Forsett, Monroe, and Osemele, but I’d like the Browns a lot more as 3 point favorites than 3.5 point favorites because about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal.

The Ravens are also in a better spot. They lost to the Browns earlier this year as home favorites in Baltimore, but teams are 53-30 ATS as divisional road underdogs in a regular season rematch against a divisional opponent they previously lost to as home favorites. On the other side, the Browns host the Bengals next week, a game in which they are expected to be 7 point home underdogs. Teams are 23-53 ATS since 2012 before being 6+ point home underdogs and 14-31 ATS over that same time period before being 7+ point home underdogs. I can’t put any money on the Ravens, but they’re the pick here.

Update: The line has jumped to 4.5. I’ll bite. Even if the Browns win, close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or less. The Ravens are in a better spot and the Browns shouldn’t be favored by more than four points over anyone except maybe the 49ers.

Cleveland Browns 19 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (7-3) at Atlanta Falcons (6-4)

The Falcons started the season a surprising 5-0, but have since fallen back to earth, losing 4 of 5, putting them in a fight to even make the playoffs. Considering 3 of those 5 wins were by a touchdown or less and the best team they beat was probably the Giants (a 24-20 win), that’s not too much of a surprise, but the fact remains that they’ve lost to New Orleans, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, and Indianapolis, all teams they were favored against. Their only win in their last 5 games was by 3 in Tennessee, when the Titans were playing without starting quarterback Marcus Mariota.

The Falcons are also missing talented running back Devonta Freeman in this one, which was caused the line to shift from 3 on the early line last week to 1 now. Even though about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal or less, the line movement makes sense, given how important Freeman is to this offense. The Falcons rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Vikings rank 11th, but, again, the Falcons have had an incredibly easy schedule, with their toughest opponents being the likes of the Colts, Giants, Eagles, and Saints. They haven’t played a single team with a winning record. The Vikings are the best team they’ve faced thus far and they have to do so without a key player. Given that, the Vikings should win, but the 1 point we’re getting with them isn’t enough for me to have any confidence in them on the road.

Update: Harrison Smith is a surprise inactive for the Vikings, a big deal considering he’s one of the best safeties in the NFL. The spread has jumped to 2, which isn’t enough to compensate, so I’m switching sides on this one. Not that it matters because I wouldn’t touch either side without getting a field goal.

Atlanta Falcons 23 Minnesota Vikings 20

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -2

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (5-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)

This line was a field goal a week ago on the early line, but has since jumped to 6. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but, in this case, I think the line is just catching up to how good the Chiefs are. They’ve won 4 straight, including huge wins in Denver and San Diego over the past 2 weeks by a combined score of 62-16, following a tough early season schedule that caused them to start 1-5. Of their 5 losses, 4 of them came against Green Bay, Denver, Cincinnati, and Minnesota, all likely playoff teams, and their other loss came by one point against the Bears, a decent team. They rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, led by a defense that ranks 9th in rate of moving the chains allowed and that has been a lot better since getting top cornerback Sean Smith back from the suspension that cost him the first 3 games of the season.

The Bills, meanwhile, rank 22nd, so the Chiefs being favored by 6 makes a lot of sense. This line might even be too low, if anything. The Chiefs are banged up, missing defensive end Allen Bailey, guard Ben Grubbs, and possibly running back Charcandrick West, who seems to be a gametime decision. However, so are the Bills, who are missing defensive tackle Kyle Williams, defensive end Mario Williams, and guard John Miller. On top of that, quarterback Tyrod Taylor has a shoulder injury and is less than 100%. It’s tough to pick a side in this one with the line shooting up to 6, but the Chiefs should be the right side.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -6

Confidence: None

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New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (4-6) at Houston Texans (5-5)

The Texans won last week, 24-17 at home against the Jets, to improve their record to 5-5. After a 1-4 start, the Texans are right in the thick of the playoff race in the AFC. Last week’s win came as home underdogs and teams are 42-71 ATS since 2012 off of a win as home underdogs, including 7-20 ATS at home. However, the Texans have moved up to 10th in rate of moving the chains differential and they are a better team than the Saints, who rank 17th. That’s not what this line suggests, as the Texans are just 3 point favorites at home. The Texans also get cornerback Kareem Jackson back from injury, after a 4 game absence.

The Saints also have a tough upcoming game, as they host the Carolina Panthers, a game in which they’re expected to be 4 point home underdogs, according to the early line. That number could jump even higher after the Panthers’ huge win over the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving, which improved them to 11-0. Teams are 77-120 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, 44-81 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, and 23-53 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs, as teams tend to get caught looking ahead before such a big home game. I’m not confident in them, but I’m taking the Texans.

Houston Texans 24 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against the spread: Houston -3

Confidence: Low

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