Year: 2015

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (4-6) at Green Bay Packers (7-3)

The Packers lost to the lowly Lions in their last home game, but they’ve generally had a ton of success at Lambeau recently. As long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 30-13-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 39-5 straight up, with an absurd +608 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 13.82 points per game. That homefield advantage seems to be priced into this line though, as the Packers are favored by 9 (up from 7 a week ago), despite the fact that they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential and the Bears rank 19th.

The Bears have also been better offensively with Jay Cutler healthy (72.62% rate of moving the chains differential in the 8 games he’s been healthy, 56.25% rate in their other 2 games) and are getting Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery back from injury this week. Tight end Martellus Bennett, wide receiver Eddie Royal, and possibly safety Antrel Rolle are out with injury, but the Bears are still healthier than they’ve been for most of this season. The Packers are pretty healthy too, but could be without center Corey Linsley on a short week and haven’t been as good offensively all season without top receiver Jordy Nelson, who tore his ACL in the pre-season. They are a great home team, but are far from a lock to blow out a decent Bears team.

The Packers are in a good spot, with a trip to Detroit on deck. Teams are 109-85 ATS before being 3+ point road favorites since 2012 and 71-50 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites over that same time period. However, so are the Bears, who host the 49ers next week. Underdogs of 6+ are 146-97 ATS before being 6+ point favorites since 1989. Lines can change so neither team is a lock to be in the spot I mentioned, but, either way, the logic holds. Both teams are have easy games on deck and should be very focused for this game. I’m taking the Packers by default at home, but I can’t put money on them unless this line goes back down to 7.

Green Bay Packers 31 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -9

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (4-6) at Detroit Lions (3-7)

The Eagles were favored by a field goal in Detroit on the early line last week, but now are 2.5 point road underdogs, a huge line movement considering the fact that close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. I typically like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. I think that’s the case here this week. The Eagles got embarrassed at home against the Buccaneers last week 45-17, but they still rank 12th on the season in rate of moving the chains differential.

They could be without quarterback Sam Bradford for the 2nd straight week this week, but he hasn’t played that well this season and backup Mark Sanchez isn’t really a downgrade. Their defense has been what’s kept them competitive this season. They just had a fluky bad week last week. The Eagles are also missing running back Ryan Mathews, tight end Zach Ertz, and possibly center Jason Kelce with injuries. Still, they’re a significantly better team than the Lions, which is not what this line suggests. Despite that, the public is all over Detroit and I love to fade the public whenever it makes sense, which it does this week.

The Lions have won 2 straight games, but still rank 30th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re healthier than they’ve been all season and are playing their best football right now as a result. They’re in a tough spot with a home game against Green Bay on deck, as teams are 76-120 ATS before being home underdogs of 3+ since 2012, but the Eagles have a trip to New England on deck and teams are 34-53 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 10+. Neither of those things is guaranteed (Detroit being 3+ point home underdogs is more likely), but the logic holds either way. Both teams have tough upcoming games. With Kelce questionable, I can’t put any money on Philadelphia unless they’re getting a field goal, but they should be the right side.

Philadelphia Eagles 19 Detroit Lions 17 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +2.5

Confidence: Low

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2015 Week 11 NFL Pick Results

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Week 11

Straight Up: 6-8

Against the Spread: 5-9

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence: 0-2

Medium Confidence: 1-1

Low Confidence: 2-3

No Confidence: 2-2

Upset Picks: 0-3

2015

Straight Up: 94-66

Against the Spread: 66-90-4

Pick of the Week: 5-6

High Confidence: 8-8

Medium Confidence: 18-21-1

Low Confidence: 17-29-1

No Confidence: 18-26-2

Upset Picks: 10-18

Since 2013

Straight Up: 444-248-2 (64.2%)

Against the Spread: 364-313-17 (53.8%)

Pick of the Week: 24-19-2 (55.8%)

High Confidence: 42-29-1 (59.2%)

Medium Confidence: 107-78-1 (57.8%)

Low Confidence: 92-89-6 (50.8%)

No Confidence: 99-98-7 (50.3%)

Upset Picks: 55-73 (43.0%)

St. Louis Rams at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (4-5) at Baltimore Ravens (2-7)

The Rams have benched Nick Foles, who they traded for and gave an extension to this off-season, for backup Case Keenum. Keenum has struggled in a decent amount of action in his career, completing 55.2% of his passes for an average of 6.65 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions across 330 attempts, but it would be hard for him to be worse than Foles has been this season. Foles has posted equally poor numbers, completing 56.6% of his passes for an average of 6.56 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions across 256 attempts and the Rams rank easily dead last in the NFL in rate of moving the chains, wasting the performance of a defense that ranks 4th in rate of moving the chains allowed.

It’s also going to be hard for Keenum to be much of an improvement, considering his limited skill set and that he’ll have to work with the same receiving corps and offensive line that Foles had to work with, both units that are arguably the worst in the NFL. Because of how poor the offense is, the Rams rank 28th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite a strong defense. Their defense hasn’t been quite as good in recent weeks anyway, thanks to injuries to Alec Ogletree, defensive end Chris Long, and especially defensive end Robert Quinn. Long could return this week, but missing Quinn again is a huge absence, considering he’s one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL when healthy.

The Ravens aren’t very good either, ranking 25th in rate of moving the chains differential. After ranking 3rd in that statistic in 2014, the Ravens have lost wide receiver Torrey Smith (free agency), wide receiver Steve Smith (injury), outside linebacker Pernell McPhee (free agency), defensive lineman Haloti Ngata (cap casualty), outside linebacker Terrell Suggs (injury), and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak (now Denver’s head coach). Now they’ve lost starting center Jeremy Zuttah for the season and could be without left guard Kelechi Osemele with injury as well. Still, they’re a better team than the Rams, which is not what this line suggests at 2.5. Considering close to 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, I’m going to take the Ravens as less than field goal favorites, though I’m not confident.

Baltimore Ravens 17 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (4-5) at Atlanta Falcons (6-3)

The Falcons are 6-3, but not as good as their record. Their 3 losses came against New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco. Just 2 of their 6 wins have come by more than a touchdown and the toughest team they’ve beaten is probably Philadelphia, who they only beat because they were at home and Philadelphia missed a makeable field goal at the end of the game. The Falcons have exceeded pre-season expectations, but aren’t too much more talented than their 4-win team from 2013 or their 6-win team from 2014. They’ve simply lucked out getting close wins (4-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less) and playing easy opponents.

They would seem to have lucked out again, given that they’re facing the Colts without Andrew Luck, who is missing the first of multiple games with a lacerated kidney. Luck is certainly a better player than backup Matt Hasselbeck and has more upside, but Luck was not playing well when on the field this season, completing 55.3% of his passes for an average of 6.42 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Hasselbeck is a solid, experienced backup and played well in two spot starts in place of Luck earlier this year. The Colts moved the chains at a 73.85% rate in those 2 games, as opposed to 69.66% in their other 7 games with Luck.

Given that, the Falcons should not be favored by 5 points here over the Colts. They rank 12th on the season in rate of moving the chains differential, as their defense has been solid this season (11th), allowing them to be competitive, despite inconsistencies and struggles at the quarterback position. They’ve had a way tougher schedule too, facing Carolina, Denver, New England, and the Jets, who would all be the toughest opponent Atlanta has seen all season. They haven’t played any of those teams without Luck, but they should still be able to keep it close in Atlanta. Close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, including 3 of the Falcons’ wins, so as long as the line is 4.5 or more, the Colts should be the right side.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Indianapolis Colts 23

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +5

Confidence: Low

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Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (2-7) at Miami Dolphins (4-5)

The Cowboys are 2-7, but are favored here by 1.5 points in Miami. That’s because, of their 7 losses, 5 of them have come by less than a touchdown. As a result, they rank 23rd in rate of moving the chains, not bad as their record. The Dolphins rank 24th, but the Cowboys are getting Tony Romo back from injury for the first time since week 2 (when they were 2-0). The Cowboys are going to be missing top linebacker Sean Lee with injury, but the Dolphins are without defensive end Cameron Wake, offensive tackle JuWuan James, and linebacker Jelani Jenkins.

The Cowboys are in a tough spot though, playing again in 4 days, against the Panthers in Dallas, on Thanksgiving. Favorites are 43-68 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night game. On top of that, they could easily be home underdogs next week and road favorites are 19-36 ATS before being home underdogs since 2012. The early line has that game as a pick ‘em, but the line could easily become 1 or 2 in favor of Carolina. Either way, they have a tough game coming up in a few days and are in a bad spot as a result of that.

It does help the Cowboys that they’re in their 2nd straight road game.  Teams are 43-29 ATS since 2008 as road favorites off of a road loss in their 2nd of two road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 215-215 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.42 points per game, as opposed to 300-420 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.92 points per game. I’m going to take them because they should win and we’re getting field goal protection and then some with them, but I’m not confident.

Dallas Cowboys 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -1.5

Confidence: None

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-5)

The Eagles are only favored by 6 points here over the Buccaneers this week, after being favored by 8 points in the early line last week. I think that’s too low, as the Eagles rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Buccaneers rank 26th in rate of moving the chains. The Eagles are going to be without quarterback Sam Bradford in this one, but I’m not so sure that Mark Sanchez is much of a downgrade. Sanchez is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL and the Eagles offense has struggled this season, ranking 20th in rate of moving the chains. They’ve been carried by a defense that ranks 6th.

I can’t be confident in the Eagles for two reasons. For one, they’re missing running back Ryan Mathews and possibly left tackle Jason Peters with injury, while Tampa Bay is just missing defensive end George Johnson. The second reason is that the Eagles play in Detroit on Thanksgiving in 4 days. Favorites are 43-68 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night game. The Eagles have a strong defense and should be able to cover as 6 point favorites at home here over Tampa Bay, but I’m not confident.

Philadelphia Eagles 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: None

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New York Jets at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (5-4) at Houston Texans (4-5)

I’m torn on this one. On one hand, I think this line is probably too high at 3.5 in favor of the visiting Jets in Houston. The Texans are no pushover and have won 3 of their last 4 games, including last week in Cincinnati against the previously undefeated Bengals. They rank 15th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re likely going to be missing quarterback Brian Hoyer, who has been playing well, but their defense is solid too, ranking 12th in rate of moving the chains allowed, and TJ Yates probably isn’t a huge downgrade from Hoyer.

The Jets, meanwhile, rank 5th, though they are probably going to be without talented defensive end Sheldon Richardson. Considering close to one in four games are decided by a field goal or less, the Jets shouldn’t be favored by 3.5 here. However, the Texans are in a bad spot. Teams are 36-58 ATS since 1989 off of a road victory as 10+ point underdogs and the Texans could be overconfident after last week’s victory in Cincinnati. That win wasn’t totally fluky as the Texans are a solid team, but there were definitely some fluky aspects to it. The Texans are still the pick, but it’s a no confidence pick.

New York Jets 16 Houston Texans 13

Pick against the spread: Houston +3.5

Confidence: None

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Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (5-4) at New England Patriots (9-0)

Ordinarily, I would be all over the Patriots here. They should be favored by more than 7.5 points at home against the Bills, as they rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bills rank 21st. They’re also in a great spot, as they will be favored by 5.5 points (according to the early line) in Denver next week. Teams are 71-49 ATS before being road favorites of 4+, 43-29 ATS before being road favorites of 6+, and 29-13 ATS before being road favorites of 7+, since 2012.

However, the Patriots are so banged up that it’s hard to trust them. A week after losing running back Dion Lewis for the season with a torn ACL, the Patriots lost wide receiver Julian Edelman for likely the rest of the regular season with a broken foot last week. Those guys are such a big part of their offense that they’re almost certainly going to struggle to move the ball as well as they have thus far this season. Danny Amendola should be able to play decently in a larger role in Edelman’s absence, but he won’t be able to nearly replace both Edelman and Lewis by himself.

They obviously still have Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, but they need a 2nd and 3rd option to step up in the passing game. They get offensive tackles Sebastian Vollmer and Marcus Cannon back from injury this week, but they’re still missing left tackle Nate Solder for the year. And, on the defensive side, top linebacker Jamie Collins is out for the 3rd straight game. I’m still taking New England, but I can’t bring myself to put any money on them unless the line goes under a touchdown.

New England Patriots 30 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against the spread: New England -7.5

Confidence: Low

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Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) at San Diego Chargers (2-7)

The Chargers had their bye last week and it came at a perfect time, as it allowed them to get much healthier. Left tackle King Dunlap, left guard Orlando Franklin, tight end Antonio Gates, and safety Eric Weddle, all of whom have missed significant time with injury in recent weeks, all come out of the bye healthy. That’s great news because they’re all key players and the Chargers have been one of the most banged up teams in the league this season. They’re still missing top wide receiver Keenan Allen for the season and right guard DJ Fluker and wide receiver Malcom Floyd will join him this week, but they’re still significantly healthier than they normally are.

Despite all of their injuries, the Chargers have been a solid team this season. You wouldn’t know it from their record, as they’re 2-7, but they rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential. Their record is largely the result of a 2-5 record in games decided by a touchdown, a -5 turnover margin, a -3 return touchdown margin, a -6.6 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -6.2 net punt margin. None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team though, but rather that they have the framework of a good team and just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 6 of 9 games and could easily be 4-5, 5-4, or even 6-3. The Chiefs only rank 14th in rate of moving the chains differential, so it’s surprising that they’re favored by more than a field goal here on the road in San Diego, especially considering close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. That’s enough for me to take the Chargers with confidence.

San Diego Chargers 23 Kansas City Chiefs 20 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: San Diego +3.5

Confidence: High

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