Washington Redskins (4-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (3-4) at London
Typically, the favorite covers in these London games, as they have done in 10 of the last 14 London games. Playing a neutral site game overseas makes for an unusual week and it makes sense that the better team would have an advantage and would be better equipped to deal with the situation. That was definitely the case last week with the Giants as 3 point favorites over the lowly Rams, who turned it over 4 times in a loss. In this game, the Bengals are favored by a field goal. However, I’m not going to take the Bengals this week because these two teams are more or less even in my book. Usually it makes sense to assume that the favorite will both win and cover in a game like this, but only when the team that’s favored deserves to be favored, which is not the case in this game.
The Redskins actually enter this game 8 spots higher than the Bengals in first down percentage differential, as they rank 16th, while the Bengals rank 24th. The Bengals have had a tougher schedule, but it’s hard to argue they’re a significantly better team than the Redskins. There’s not quite enough here for me to take the Redskins (that changes at 3.5), but we’re getting some line value with them and they should be the right side. If the Bengals win, there’s a good chance this is still a field goal game at worst.
Cincinnati Bengals 24 Washington Redskins 23
Pick against the spread: Washington +3