Month: September 2017

Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears: 2017 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0) at Chicago Bears (0-2)

This is a classic Steelers trap game. The Steelers are just 4-13 ATS as non-divisional road favorites of 4.5 or more in the Ben Roethlisberger era (since 2004). For whatever reason, this team always seems to play down to the level of their competition on the road outside of the division. That could easily happen again here. The Bears are one of the worst teams in the league, but this line is high enough for them to cover. They nearly beat the Falcons at home week 1, failing on 4 straight shots on the goal line at the end of the game in a 6-point loss. Something similar could easily happen here.

All that being said, I can’t be confident in the Bears because I hate the spot they are in. After this game, they have to turn around and play in Lambeau Field against the Packers in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. That a daunting task even on a normal week. The Bears are expected to be double digit underdogs in that game and teams are 44-70 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs, as tough upcoming games tend to be a distraction for teams. Even if the Bears don’t end up being double digit underdogs, teams are 29-48 ATS since 2012 as 7+ point underdogs before being 7+ point underdogs again, which the Bears definitely will be. This is such a tough part of the schedule for the Bears that they could lose to the Steelers by double digits even if the Steelers don’t play all that well. The Bears are the pick, but only for pick ‘em purposes.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7.5

Confidence: None

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: 2017 Week 3 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (0-2) at Carolina Panthers (2-0)

The Panthers’ defense has been incredible through the first 2 games of the season with Luke Kuechly back from the concussions that cost him time last season and with a pair of young cornerbacks (James Bradberry and Daryl Worley) taking a step forward. They’ve allowed just 23 first downs and no touchdowns through 2 games. Even against the likes of the Bills and the 49ers, those kind of numbers are impressive. Unfortunately, their offense has some major issues. Cam Newton still looks rusty after off-season surgery and their offense struggled to move the ball all game against the Bills after losing tight end Greg Olsen and center Ryan Kalil, a pair of very valuable veteran offensive players.

Olsen and Kalil will be out for an extended period of time, so the Panthers will have to adapt. Fortunately, they get to face arguably the worst defense in the league this week with the Saints coming to town. The Saints’ defense is banged up too, missing #1 cornerback Marshon Lattimore and slot cornerback Sterling Moore. Between those two and Delvin Breaux, who has been out all season, the Saints are missing their top-3 cornerbacks. They are also without a talented defensive tackle, Nick Fairley, for the season.

The Saints also have key players missing on offense, with left tackle Terron Armstead and right tackle Zach Strief both out with injuries and #2 wide receiver Willie Snead still suspended. With both teams banged up, this line is right around where it should be at 5.5. I am taking the Panthers just because the Saints have to go to London after this one and teams are understandably 11-21 ATS before going to London all-time. The Saints could easily keep it close throughout or get a backdoor touchdown late though.

Carolina Panthers 27 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against the spread: Carolina -5.5

Confidence: None

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings: 2017 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) at Minnesota Vikings (1-1)

The Vikings’ season got off to such a promising start with Sam Bradford having the game of his life in their week 1 home victory over the Saints. However, Bradford’s surgically repaired knee started giving him trouble a few days after that game and now he’s out indefinitely. Bradford was originally acquired from the Eagles for a first round pick because the Vikings lost Teddy Bridgewater to a horrific knee injury three weeks before the start of the 2016 season and needed a replacement. Bridgewater remains out, so the Vikings are in a unique position of having two franchise caliber quarterbacks on the roster and not being able to play either of them.

Instead, veteran journeyman Case Keenum started in their week 2 loss in Pittsburgh and he’ll start again this week at home for the Buccaneers. Bradford’s injury shifted this line all the way to 2.5 in favor of the visiting Buccaneers. That translates to a line of about 8 or 8.5 in Tampa Bay, which doesn’t make sense because the Bears were just 6.5 point underdogs there last week and the Vikings are still a much better team than the Bears even with Keenum under center. The Buccaneers beat the Bears 29-7, but that was largely because they won the turnover battle by 3, which is not something they can count on every week. Teams that win the turnover battle by 3, on average, have a +0.0 turnover margin the following week.

Tampa Bay will also be without a pair of talented defensive starters, with defensive tackle Chris Baker and middle linebacker Kwon Alexander both out. The Vikings are healthy other than Bradford and Bridgewater and they have a lot of supporting talent around Keenum on both sides of the ball. Keenum is a backup caliber quarterback, but he’s not the worst backup in the world and the Vikings have a good chance to pull the upset straight up. The money line is worth a small bet at +130, but I’d need a full field goal to bet on the spread. If this line moves up between now and game time, I’ll reconsider.

Minnesota Vikings 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +2.5

Confidence: Low

Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans: 2017 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (1-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)

The Seahawks have one of the best defenses in the league, but had back-to-back disappointing offensive games to start the season. They have just 33 first downs and 1 touchdown through 2 games and are moving the chains at a mere 26.77%, almost 7% less than league average. That’s despite playing a pair of middling at best defenses, Green Bay and San Francisco. Their offensive line has been a big problem and has hurt both their pass game and their run game significantly, but their offensive line issues are nothing new.

The bigger problem is that Russell Wilson is off to a sluggish start, after playing well in spite of offensive line issues in the 2nd half of last season. He’s completed just 56.1% of his passes for an average of 5.39 YPA, and just 1 touchdown on 66 attempts and he ranks 28th among 33 eligible quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. I trust him to bounce back though, given his track record of success. Their offensive line will be a problem all year, but their offense should be better going forward and this team will likely end up as one of the best in the league again.

That being said, I have the Titans a few spots higher than them in my roster rankings right now because they are a much more complete team. They don’t have as much top level talent as the Seahawks, but they also don’t have any holes that are nearly as glaring as Seattle’s offensive line. I have this line at -3.5 in favor of Tennessee, so we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Titans at -2.5. It’s not enough for me to bet on them, but they’re the smarter choice in pick ‘em leagues and should win this game at home by a field goal or more.

Tennessee Titans 21 Seattle Seahawks 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -2.5

Confidence: Low

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions: 2017 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (2-0) at Detroit Lions (2-0)

The Lions are 2-0, but I am not sold on them. They went 9-7 last year, but they didn’t beat a single playoff team and only won one game by more than a touchdown. This season, they have defensive end Ezekiel Ansah back fully healthy, but they are without fellow defensive end Kerry Hyder and left tackle Taylor Decker, both of whom are big losses that will hurt them against better teams. They’ll be joined on the sideline this week by promising rookie linebacker Jarrad Davis, who is out with a concussion, another significant loss.

The Lions’ two victories have come against the Cardinals and the Giants, neither of whom are likely to make the playoffs. Both wins came by double figures, but they actually lost the first down rate battle in both games. They trailed 17-9 in the 3rd quarter at home against the Cardinals before David Johnson got hurt and managed just 12 first downs against a Giants defense that was without Janoris Jenkins and BJ Goodson. If not for a punt return and a 56-yard field goal, that game in New York could have been much closer.

The Falcons this week are a step up in competition, as they are almost definitely going to be a playoff team. They have one of the best offenses in the league and a young defense that is improving by the week. The Lions are catching them at a good time though, as they will be without right tackle Ryan Schraeder and top edge rusher Vic Beasley. Atlanta should still win this game, but there isn’t line value with them as 3 point road favorites. If this line drops down to 2.5 between now and gametime, I would reconsider.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Detroit Lions 27

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -3

Confidence: Low

Houston Texans at New England Patriots: 2017 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (1-1) at New England Patriots (1-1)

Ordinarily, you have to pay a pretty high premium to bet on the Patriots at home. As a result, they are just 21-21 ATS as home favorites of 7.5 or more over the past 8 seasons, despite going 35-7 straight up in those games. The casual public loves betting on New England, so we don’t usually get good line value with them. However, in this game, I think we are getting a little bit of line value with them. The Patriots are favored by 14 points, which is a lot, but this is a matchup between one of the best teams in the league and one of the worst, so you can make a case for this line being a couple points higher.

The Texans get a lot of attention for their front 7, but, when you look at the rest of their roster, this is one of the worst teams in the league right now. They’re starting a rookie quarterback behind arguably the worst offensive line in football with no receivers to throw to after DeAndre Hopkins. Even on defense, they have issues in the secondary, especially with Kevin Johnson hurt again. That all could be a recipe for disaster against a New England team that doesn’t have any upcoming distractions.

The Patriots host the Panthers next week in a game in which the Patriots are expected to be favorites of at least a touchdown. Teams that are favored by a touchdown or more are 61-36 ATS since 2012 before being favored by a touchdown or more again, as good teams tend to take care of business without upcoming distractions on their schedule. That’s what I expect to happen here. New England is worth a small bet at 14 and should win this game by at least two scores.

New England Patriots 31 Houston Texans 13

Pick against the spread: New England -14

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: 2017 Week 3 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (0-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)

Last week, when I looked at the early lines, Philadelphia -3 at home for the Giants was one of my favorites. The Eagles are legitimately one of the most talented teams in the entire league and have a great chance to win the NFC East, while the Giants are much more of a middling team, yet that line suggested these two teams were about equal. Needless to say, I am kicking myself for not locking that in last week because the Giants lost by 14 at home for the Lions on Monday Night Football and the line has subsequently jumped to 6.

We’re still getting some line value with the Eagles, who are still one of the better teams in the league, despite a loss in Kansas City last week (in a game in which the Eagles had 27 first downs to 16 for Kansas City). I have this line calculated at 7.5. However, we lost a ton of value with the line movement. The Giants were not as bad as the final score looked (24-10), as the Lions managed just 12 first downs and scored 10 points on a punt return and a 56-yard field goal, despite the fact that the Giants were without cornerback Janoris Jenkins and middle linebacker BJ Goodson.

Both Jenkins and Goodson are expected to be out again, but the Eagles are without cornerback Ronald Darby and could be without safety Rodney McLeod, which would be a big loss because backups Jaylen Watkins and Corey Graham are also out. Odell Beckham should also be closer to 100% this week, which will help this offense, and their running game could be better if Orleans Darkwa starts taking more carries away from Paul Perkins. The Eagles should still win this game by a touchdown or so, but they’re not worth betting on given how high this line is.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: Low

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills: 2017 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (2-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-1)

The Broncos pulled off the shocker of the week last week, demolishing the Dallas Cowboys by the final score of 42-17 as home underdogs. The casual public seems to have taken notice as the Broncos are one of the highest bet teams of the week, despite the fact that this line moved from 1.5 in favor of Buffalo on the early line last week to 3.5 in favor of Denver this week. I typically like to go against a significant line movement like that, especially when I can also go against the public in the process, and this game is no exception.

That’s not to say I wasn’t impressed by the Broncos last week. Despite some personnel losses and the loss of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, the Broncos still have arguably the best defense in the league. They are also noticeably improved on the ground with CJ Anderson and Jamaal Charles healthy and an improved interior offensive line. That makes life easy for Trevor Siemian, who also seems to have upped his game this season. They can definitely win 10 games and make the playoffs as a wild card in the AFC.

However, this line suggests the Broncos would be about 9 or 9.5 point favorites over the Bills in Denver. The Broncos were just 3.5 point favorites over the Chargers week 1 and they failed to cover in a game that almost went to overtime. The Bills are not 6 points worse than the Chargers, even without defensive tackle Marcell Dareus and left tackle Cordy Glenn, who are out with injuries. The Bills had an impressive week 1 victory over the Jets, which was not as close as the final score, and then nearly won in Carolina last week, in a game in which they didn’t allow a touchdown.

New head coach Sean McDermott has improved defenses wherever he’s gone and seems to have done the same in Buffalo. They also have the more trustworthy quarterback in this game, as I trust Tyrod Taylor more than Trevor Siemian. The Broncos are definitely the better team overall, but they’re on the road and I like getting this many points at home with the better quarterback. I have this line calculated at -1 in favor of the Broncos, so we’re getting significant line value at 3.5. About 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, so, even if the Bills don’t win straight up, they have a decent chance to still cover the spread.

One thing that could benefit the Broncos is that this is just their first road game of the season. Teams are 44-33 ATS since 1989 in week 3 when it’s their first road game of the season. However, favorites are just 9-12 ATS over that time period. On top of that, teams tend to struggle after a home upset victory, going 112-140 ATS in that spot since 2008, including 31-44 ATS as favorites. That’s likely because teams tend to be overrated and overconfident after those type of victories. I’m not sure if the Broncos will be overconfident, but they are a little overrated right now, so the Bills are worth a small bet.

Denver Broncos 17 Buffalo Bills 16

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2017 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (1-0) at New York Jets (0-2)

Both of these teams are in tough spots here this week. The Dolphins travel to London to face the Saints next week and teams understandably seem to struggle before London trips, going 11-21 ATS all-time. Making matters worse, they had to play on the west coast last week and had their home opener moved to week 11 because of Hurricane Irma. They’re in the middle of a stretch where they have to go to Los Angeles, New York, and London before they get to play a home game back in Miami.

The Jets, meanwhile, could be sluggish after travelling to Buffalo and Oakland to start their season. Teams that have their home opener week 3 are 26-53 ATS since 1989. Miami’s travel schedule might not catch up with them for another week or so and the Jets have had a rough start to their season both in terms of travel and on field performance.They have allowed 16 more first downs and 6 more offensive touchdowns than they’ve gained so far this season, both worst in the NFL. They’re arguably the least talented team in a decade.

It’s hard to pick the Jets under any circumstances right now, but I do think this line is a little high at 6.5. I have it calculated at 5, purely because I don’t think the Dolphins are good enough to be favored by this many points against anyone. They won last week in Los Angeles against the Chargers, but that’s because the Chargers blew numerous chances to win it. That being said, I have no interest in betting on them right now unless we’re getting serious line value. This could easily be a 7 or 10 point Miami victory, even if they don’t play very well. This is a no confidence pick.

Miami Dolphins 24 New York Jets 20

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +6.5

Confidence: None

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts: 2017 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (0-2) at Indianapolis Colts (0-2)

The Colts have been one of the worst teams in the league this season, but injuries are the major reason why. Obviously the injury to Andrew Luck is the big one, but they’re also missing top cornerback Vontae Davis, talented hybrid safety/linebacker Clayton Geathers, and starting center Ryan Kelly. The Browns enter this game with significant injuries too though, and unlike the Colts, they are not that good even when healthy.

Rookie defensive end Myles Garrett, the #1 overall pick in the draft, remains out with a high ankle sprain and will be joined on the sideline this week by linebacker Jamie Collins, who has a concussion. Those are arguably their two best defensive players, from a defense that wasn’t good to begin with. The Colts are significantly better with Jacoby Brissett under center than Scott Tolzien and could move the ball pretty easily in this one.

The Browns could also move the ball against Indianapolis’ weak defense, but these two teams are about even and this line suggests that the Browns are a whopping 4.5 points better than the Colts. With Cleveland now missing Collins, I actually have the Colts one spot better in my roster rankings, so we’re getting good value with the Colts as home underdogs here. The Colts are also in a better spot as home underdogs tend to cover off of a loss as home underdogs, going 75-57 ATS in that spot since 2002. The Browns, meanwhile, host the Bengals next week in a game in which they are expected to be home underdogs and road favorites are 52-73 ATS since 2002 before being home underdogs. The Colts should win this outright by a field goal or more.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Cleveland Browns 20 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +1.5

Confidence: Medium