Month: October 2017

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)

The Bills aren’t getting a lot of attention, but they’ve been a pleasant surprise so far. They’re 3-1 with wins over Denver and Atlanta and their only loss was in Carolina in a game they had a chance to win at the end. Their receiving corps are a major problem, especially with de facto #1 receiver Jordan Matthews now injured, but their defense has overperformed under new head coach Sean McDermott, who has always gotten the most out of his defenses, they have a solid running game, and they have a capable quarterback under center in Tyrod Taylor. Losing Matthews hurts, but they do get talented left tackle Cordy Glenn back from injury for the first time since week 2, to add to what was already a capable offensive line. They could easily push for a playoff spot in the AFC.

That being said, the Bengals aren’t much worse than the Bills, despite their 1-3 record. They too have a strong defense, especially with guys like Adam Jones, Shawn Williams, and Vontaze Burfict back after missing the start of the season, and their offense has been better since firing offensive coordinator Ken Zampese. Their offensive line will be a problem all year, but they have some playmakers around Andy Dalton, so they’re not one of the worst offenses in the league like they appeared to be to start the season. I have this line calculated at -2 in favor of the Bengals at home. At +3, The Bills are the smarter pick for pick ‘em purposes, but I wouldn’t bet anything on either side in this game.

Cincinnati Bengals 17 Buffalo Bills 15

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: None

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (3-1) at Detroit Lions (3-1)

The Panthers entered the season on my underrated list, but they’ve had bad injury luck thus far. They’ve lost tight end Greg Olsen and center Ryan Kalil, two of their most important offensive players, for an extended period of time, while Cam Newton has not looked sharp in his return from shoulder surgery. This week, safety Kurt Coleman is added to the list of injured starters, while left tackle Matt Kalil could also be out after barely practicing this week with a groin injury. The Panthers might actually be a little overrated right now, following their upset win in New England. It’s not that beating the Patriots in New England isn’t impressive, but the Patriots have not been as good this season and they were in a tough spot with another game in 4 days. Prior to that game, the Panthers lost 34-13 at home to the Saints.

The Lions, meanwhile, were on my overrated list coming into the season. They went 9-7 last season, but they had just 1 win by more than a touchdown and no wins over playoff teams and they lost left tackle Taylor Decker and defensive end Kerry Hyder with injuries before the season even started. They’re 3-1, but they’ve lost the first down battle in all 4 games, despite not playing that tough of a schedule, with games against the Cardinals, who was leading until David Johnson got hurt, the Giants, who held them to 12 first downs, the Falcons, who beat them despite being -3 in takeaways, and the Vikings, who were starting Case Keenum at quarterback.

However, I think we’re actually getting a little bit of line value here because Carolina is a little overrated after last week’s win. I have these two teams about equal, so this line should be at -3, but it’s at -2 instead. That’s not a ton of line value so I can’t be that confident in the Lions, but they should be able to beat a banged up Carolina team at home by a field goal or more, so they should be the right pick in pick ‘em leagues. I wouldn’t recommend betting on the Lions this week though.

Detroit Lions 23 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against the spread: Detroit -2

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (0-4) at New York Giants (0-4)

The Chargers are 0-4 on the season and are now 9-27 over the past 3 seasons, but they’ve been ridiculously unlucky. They are just 4-19 in games decided by a touchdown or less over that time period and a whopping 10 of their 27 losses have come by 3 points or fewer. That’s very relevant considering this line is 3.5 in favor of the hometown Giants. The Chargers are also unlucky to play in front of the home crowds that they play in front of, as they attract a disproportionately large amount of road fans to their games, a problem that has only gotten worse in Los Angeles. As a result, they have little to no homefield advantage. They’re just 5-14 ATS at home since 2015, but 11-6 ATS on the road.

They’re on the road here and frankly that might be a welcomed sight for this team at this point. At least you expect road crowds to cheer against you. At the very least, the Chargers won’t be nearly at as much of a disadvantage on the road as regular teams. They almost won in Denver earlier this year. The Giants are better than their 0-4 record too, but the Chargers are the better of these two teams and the Giants are also banged up, missing center Weston Richburg and possibly missing defensive ends Jason Pierre-Paul and Olivier Vernon. Those three are all key players and, even if JPP and Vernon play, they could be limited and have not been playing well so far this season. The Chargers have a good chance to win this straight up and, even if they don’t, I like their chances of keeping this within a field goal.

New York Giants 24 Los Angeles Chargers 23

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (2-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-2)

The Titans had a week from hell last week, as they lost 57-14 in Houston in a game in which they lost quarterback Marcus Mariota with an injury. It was an eerily similar game to their 38-17 loss in Jacksonville in week 16 of last season, when Mariota broke his leg. Those are the only two losses by more than 10 points for a Tennessee team that has generally played well over the past couple seasons. They were even able to win at home against the Texans without Mariota week 17 last year.

Mariota’s injury isn’t as serious as last season, as he only has a hamstring pull, but his mobility will be severely limited in this one, if he can even play. Given that they’re playing the Dolphins, they may opt to hold him out. The Dolphins are one of the worst teams in the league and should be 0-3 right now, if not for 2 missed makeable field goals by the Chargers week 1. They rank dead last in first down rate differential at -9.07%, despite a relatively easy schedule (Chargers, Jets, and Saints). They can beat them with a run heavy offense and Matt Cassel under center.

The Titans are also in a good spot as teams tend to bounce back off of blowout losses, going 54-29 ATS since 2002 after a loss by 35 or more. Teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed after big losses like that and they tend to bounce back as a result. That being said, I can’t take them with any confidence as 3 point road favorites, even as bad as the Dolphins are. I have this line calculated right at -3, with Tennessee’s uncertainty at quarterback factored in, and I wouldn’t want to bet anything on the Titans even if Mariota does end up playing, given how limited he would be. This is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

Sunday Update: Marcus Mariota is out for the Titans and the line has shifted to -1.5 in favor of the Dolphins. Even with Matt Cassel out there instead of Mariota, I have this line at -2.5 in favor of the Titans, so we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Titans, even if it’s between the field goals. The Dolphins are a terrible team and are in a tough spot in what will be a week 5 home opener for them. Teams are 27-55 ATS since 1989 in week 3 home openers and the Dolphins have already played games in Los Angeles, New York, and London before returning home to Miami, where they have little homefield advantage anyway (27-42 ATS since 2008, including 12-27 ATS as favorites). The Titans had a bad week last week, but are still a talented team and they should be able to execute a run heavy offense well enough to bounce back from a blowout and win this game. This is still only a low confidence pick, but it’s worth a small bet on the money line at +105.

Tennessee Titans 19 Miami Dolphins 17 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +1.5

Confidence: Low

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (0-4) at Indianapolis Colts (1-3)

These are two of the worst teams in the league, but I think the 49ers are a little worse, at least as long as talented rookie middle linebacker Reuben Foster remains out with injury. The Colts, meanwhile, are actually getting healthier, with cornerback Vontae Davis returning last week and center Ryan Kelly back in the lineup this week. Quarterback Andrew Luck and safety Clayton Geathers remain out indefinitely, so this team still has problems, but I think the Colts’ roster is a little bit more talented than the 49ers’ right now.

This line, -1.5 in favor of the hometown Colts, suggests the opposite, that the 49ers are a little bit better. That might be true if Scott Tolzien was still the Colts’ quarterback, but Jacoby Brissett has done a decent job stabilizing this offense after Tolzien’s week 1 disastrous performance. We’re getting a couple points of line value with the Colts, who haven’t lost at home in regulation this season. They should be able to beat the 49ers, but there’s not enough for me to be that confident in them this week.

Indianapolis Colts 23 San Francisco 49ers 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -1.5

Confidence: Low

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (2-2) at Cleveland Browns (0-4)

Going into the season, the Jets were seen as one of the worst teams in recent memory and a legitimate candidate to go 0-16, after completely gutting their roster this off-season. However, they’ve managed to win two games in a row, so the general public is starting to think they might not be so bad. The Browns were favored by 4 in this game on the early line last week, but now this line is even, which is a significant line movement given that about 30% of games are decided by 4 points or less. That’s partially because the Browns got blown out by the Bengals, but I think the public is overrating the Jets because of their record.

I still have them ranked dead last in my roster rankings, especially given that they’re missing talented edge defender Kony Ealy with injury. Their first win came at home against the Dolphins, who are one of the worst teams in the league and who was playing in London the following week, and their second win came in overtime at home against the Jaguars, a middling team at best who had just returned from London. Despite the easy schedule and the two wins, they still rank just 28th in first down rate differential. Their defense has been middle of the pack, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 34.34% rate, but their offense has been horrendous, only picking up first downs at a 29.11% rate. On paper, this is still arguably the least talented team in the league, so it shouldn’t be a surprise if they ultimately end up with only 3-5 wins when all is said and done.

They get another easy game this week, but they have to travel to Cleveland after spending the last two games at home and they’ve looked pretty bad on the road thus far. As bad as the Browns are, I still have them one point better than the Jets, so I have this line at -4, which is where the line was before the significant line movement. I love fading significant week-to-week line movements as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play. The Jets are also in a tough spot with a huge home game against the Patriots on deck. Teams are 20-43 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 7 or more and the Jets are underdogs of 9.5 on the early line. There’s enough line value here for me to make a small bet on the Browns, but it’s hard to be too confident in them right now, even if all they have to do is win at home against a terrible team.

Sunday Update: This line has jumped to Cleveland +2 and the money line is now worth a play at +110.

Cleveland Browns 24 New York Jets 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +2

Confidence: Medium

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

The Jaguars lost last week in overtime to the Jets, but they were likely not 100% focused for the Jets the week after their London game, so it wasn’t that concerning of a performance. They’re still 2-2 and they’re still a capable opponent. Their passing game has major problems, given their situation at quarterback, in the receiving corps, and in pass protection, but they have one of the best defenses in the league and run the ball effectively, so they’ll be able to win some games without having to open up their passing game.

The Steelers are a tough opponent, so this is probably not one of those games, but the Jaguars can definitely make this a close game. They have the advantage on defense and they’re not a team that typically gets blown out, losing just 6 games by more than a touchdown over the past 2 seasons, despite going 3-13 in 2016. Just one of their last nine losses has come by more than 10 points. I have this line calculated at 6.5, so we’re getting a little bit of line value at 7.5. You could make a case that the Jaguars are the toughest team the Steelers have faced this season, as they’ve played the Browns, Bears, Ravens, and the Case Keenum led Vikings.

The Jaguars are also in a better spot than the Steelers, who have to turn around and play one of the tougher games of their season next week in Kansas City against the undefeated Chiefs, which could be a bit of a distraction for them as they prepare for the Jaguars this week. The Jaguars, meanwhile, will host the Rams in a non-conference game that probably isn’t much of a distraction. Underdogs typically cover before being favorites if their opponent will next be underdogs, going 60-38 ATS in that spot since 2014. The Steelers are only 2.5 point underdogs and the Jaguars are only 1 point favorites on the early line, but the reasoning makes sense regardless. There’s not quite enough here for me to be confident in the Jaguars, but I do see this being a close game.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +7.5

Confidence: Low

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (2-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)

The Cardinals finished the 2015 season #1 in first down rate differential when they finished 13-3 and then they finished #1 in that metric again in 2016, despite going 7-8-1, as they could have easily won 10-12 games if not for numerous special teams errors in close games. They missed a game winning field goal against New England. They allowed a long punt return to set up the winning score against the Rams. They had a blocked punt and a number of missed field goals in the tie against the Seahawks. They allowed a kickoff return touchdown in a 6-point loss to the Vikings. And against Miami, in a 3-point loss, special teams cost them 7 points on 3 plays with a missed field goal, a missed extra point, and a blocked extra point that was returned for 2 points. Had they made the playoffs, they would have been a difficult opponent.

However, this Cardinals team is not the same team as the past 2 seasons. They lost five defensive starters in free agency, including defensive end Calais Campbell, safety DJ Swearinger, and safety Tony Jefferson, all of whom were among the best players in the league at their position in 2016. On top of that, they’ve been ravaged by injuries, losing running back David Johnson, left guard Mike Iupati, and, most recently, outside linebacker Markus Golden for the season with injury, three other key contributors from 2016. They now have one of the least talented rosters in the league. They’re 2-2, but their only two wins have come in overtime against the 49ers and the Colts, two of the worst teams in the league.

The Eagles, meanwhile, are 3-1 with wins over the Redskins, Giants, and Chargers and they won the first down battle in their loss in Kansas City. They finished last year 7-9, but 6 of their 9 wins came by a touchdown or less. This season, they have Lane Johnson back (5-1 with him last season), an improved receiving corps, and a more confident Carson Wentz under center. They could easily finish with 10-12 wins and win the NFC East, as they have one of the more talented rosters in the league.

However, I can’t take them with much confidence as 6.5 point favorites for two reasons. For one, they’re banged up as well in this one, as top cornerback Ronald Darby remains out after injured his ankle week 1, while stud defensive tackle Fletcher Cox will miss his 2nd straight game with injury. I still have this line at 10.5, but the Eagles have to play again on Thursday Night 4 games after this one, which puts them in a tough spot. Favorites are just 58-90 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. They should be the right side, but this I’d need the line to go down to 5.5 to think about betting on them. They’re a smart survivor pick though.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Arizona Cardinals 14

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6.5

Confidence: Low

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (2-2)

The big injury that gets attention in this game is the back injury to Derek Carr, who will be replaced by backup EJ Manuel at least this week, as he recovers from a small fracture. However, the Raiders are basically healthy other than that and the Ravens have lost significantly more to injury this year, with a league most 16 players on injured reserve. Their injuries issues have gone back to before the season even started, most importantly losing cornerback Tavon Young, tight end Dennis Pitta, and left guard Alex Lewis for the year before week 1.

Despite that, the Ravens started 2-0, but they have lost their last 2 games by a combined score of 70-16. What happened? Well, the competition has gotten tougher, as the Ravens’ wins came over the Bengals and the Browns and their losses have come against the Jaguars and Steelers. Their turnover margin has also regressed to the mean, as they’ve posted a -5 turnover margin over the past 2 weeks, after posting a +7 in the first 2 weeks of the season. But the biggest reason they’ve struggled has been the absence of guard Marshal Yanda and defensive tackle Brandon Williams, both of whom were healthy for the first 2 games. Those two were their best offensive and defensive linemen respectively.

Williams could be back in the next couple weeks, but Yanda is out for the year. The Ravens have struggled mightily offensively ever since Yanda when down, including in the 2nd half against the Browns week 2, which is no surprise because he’s arguably the best right guard in football. Without him and Williams against the Raiders, this is still far from an easy game, even with Manuel under center for the Raiders. Even without Carr, I have the Raiders 2 points better than the Ravens, so they should be favored by around 5 points here at home instead of 2.5. There’s enough line value here for a small bet on the Raiders.

Oakland Raiders 20 Baltimore Ravens 15

Pick against the spread: Oakland -2.5

Confidence: Medium

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Los Angeles Rams (3-1)

The Seahawks were favored by 3 points on the early line last week, but this line has since shifted a full 4.5 points to favor the Rams by 1.5 points. Typically I love fading significant week to week line movements like that because they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play. This game is no different. The line moved because the Rams pulled an upset victory in Dallas, despite the fact that the Seahawks had their best game of the season, beating the Colts in blowout fashion 46-18. However, the Cowboys are an overrated team that is not as good as last season and that was missing its best defensive player, linebacker Sean Lee.

Even without Lee, the Cowboys are still arguably the toughest opponent the Rams have faced this season, so their 3-1 record doesn’t tell the whole story. Their other two wins came against two of the worst teams in the league, the 49ers and Colts, and they lost at home to the Redskins. The Seahawks haven’t beaten a good team yet this year, but their two losses came on the road against the Packers and Titans, who are better than anyone the Rams have played, and they have much more of a proven history than the Rams.

I don’t deny the Rams are significantly improved offensively this season, with Jared Goff showing improvement, improved talent around him, and improved coaching but this line suggests they’re only 1.5 points worse than the Seahawks, which I think is very premature for a team that was one of the worst in the league a year ago. I have this line calculated at -3.5 in favor of the Seahawks and that doesn’t even take into account that this game could have a very Seahawks heavy crowd. The Rams don’t have quite the same problem attracting fans in Los Angeles as the Chargers do, but they’ve struggled to sell their stadium out so far and the Seahawks have a big national following. The Rams are just 2-6-1 ATS in LA since moving there before the 2016 season. The Seahawks are a smart pick as long as we’re getting points.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Los Angeles Rams 13 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Seattle +1.5

Confidence: High