Year: 2017

Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2017 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (3-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2)

Both of these teams are off to surprising 3-2 starts, but I think the Jaguars are a little bit more for real than the Rams. Two of the Rams’ three wins came against the Colts and 49ers, two of the worst teams in the league, and they barely beat the latter. They also beat the Cowboys in Dallas, but the Cowboys were without Sean Lee and are not the same team as last year, so that’s not that impressive. Meanwhile, the Jaguars’ 3 wins have come against the Texans, Ravens, and Steelers, by a combined 80 points. Their +56 point differential is significantly better than the Rams’ +31 point differential, despite a tougher schedule.

The Rams are definitely improved offensively this season, but they still have problems on both sides of the ball. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have obvious problems in the passing game and on the offensive line, but they play incredible defense and can execute a conservative offense effectively if their defense plays like it can. I have these two teams about 2 points apart in my rankings, so we’re getting significant value with the Jaguars as mere 2.5 point favorites at home. The Jaguars should be able to win this game by a field goal or more, so the home team should be a smart bet in this one.

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 Los Angeles Rams 14

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville -2.5

Confidence: Medium

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2017 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-0)

This line shifted from 2.5 in favor of the Chiefs on the early line last week to 4.5 this week, crossing through key lines of 3 and 4. Typically, line movements like that are overreactions to a single week of play and create line value and this game is no different. The line moved because the Steelers lost 30-9 at home last week to the Jaguars, but that was largely because of a -4 turnover margin and turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis.

Teams coming off of a game in which they had a -4 turnover margin, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.1 that following game. A prime example of the inconsistency of turnover margins is the Steelers’ opponent last week the Jaguars, who league the lead with a +10 turnover margin after finishing with a -16 turnover margin in 2016. Given the inconsistency of turnover margins, I still have this line calculated at -2.5, so we’re getting some line value with the Steelers at +4.5, especially since about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or less.

The Steelers’ offense has not been what we’re used to from them, but they’re finally healthy on the offensive line and their defense is as good as it’s been in years. The Chiefs rank 1st in first down rate at 42.63%, but they are unlikely to continue averaging 5.70 yards per carry and they will probably turn the ball over more often over the final 11 games of the season, after just 1 turnover in their first 5 games (the all-time record is 10 turnovers in a 16-game season). They’re also banged up offensively, missing center Mitch Morse, right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, #2 receiver Chris Conley with injury. Meanwhile, they haven’t been the same defensively since losing safety Eric Berry for the season.

They’ve trailed in the 2nd half in 3 of 5 games and rank just 7th in first down rate differential at +3.63%. They’ve had closer calls than their box scores would suggest and the Steelers could easily steal one here, especially since the Chiefs have to play again in 4 days against the Raiders on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 59-90 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. Even if the Steelers don’t win straight up, I still like their chances of keeping this one close and covering as 4.5 point underdogs.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 23

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +4.5

Confidence: High

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans: 2017 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (0-5) at Houston Texans (2-3)

The Browns are 0-5 and tied for the 2nd worst turnover margin in the league at -7. Fortunately for them, turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. For example, the Browns were -2 against the Jets last week and teams that post a -2 turnover margin, on average, have a turnover margin of -0.1 the following week. If you look at other numbers as well, there’s really no week-to-week correlation between turnover margins. That’s great news for a team that has actually moved the ball pretty well this season when they aren’t turning the ball over.

The Browns rank 25th in first down rate differential, which isn’t great, but it’s better than their record suggests and their -2.34% mark is not terrible. They have 8 more first downs than they’ve allowed (103 vs. 95) and they rank 15th in first down rate at 34.45%, above the league average. They haven’t won a game, but they’ve won the first down margin between in 3 of 5 games, including last week’s 17-14 home loss to the Jets, a game in which the Browns had 3 drives down inside the Jets’ 5-yard line that did not result in points (interception, fumble, failed 4th down conversion) and missed 2 field goals (39-yard and 52-yard). The Browns lost by 3 despite winning the first down battle 22-14.

Not only are turnover margins inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, but the Browns also made a smart, proactive decision to improve their turnover margin by benching quarterback DeShone Kizer, who has been responsible for 11 of the Browns’ 13 turnovers, despite playing just 81.1% of the team’s offensive snaps. In addition to the turnovers, Kizer was completing just 50.9% of his passes for an average of 5.35 YPA. The 2nd round rookie was a disaster in 5 starts and will be replaced by 2016 5th round pick Kevin Hogan, who has significantly outplayed him in limited action this season, completing 68.9% of his passes for 9.92 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Hogan might not be great in his first career start, but going with him instead of Kizer increases their likelihood of winning this game.

Their big mistake might have been not going to Hogan sooner, as the Browns’ schedule has been pretty easy so far (Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, NY Jets) and gets harder going forward. They get lucky this week though, as they head to Houston to face a Texans team that just lost their two best defensive players, defensive end JJ Watt and outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus, for the season with injuries. The Texans’ offense is improved with rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson under center and 2nd year wide receiver Will Fuller playing well since his return from a broken collarbone, but they still have major problems on the offensive line and now have major problems on defense too.

They shouldn’t be favored by double digits against anyone. This line was -8.5 a week ago on the early line, but moved to 10 despite the losses of Watt and Mercilus because people are overreacting to the Browns’ loss to the Jets, a game the Browns likely would have won if they had played Hogan all game. The one concern with taking the Browns is that the Texans are going into a bye and teams are 65-24 ATS as 6+ point home favorites before a bye since 2002, but the Texans shouldn’t be favored by this many points and will have a very hard time covering as 10 point favorites without Watt and Mercilus. I have this line calculated at -5.5 in favor of the Texans, so we’re getting a ton of line value with the visitors. This is my Pick of the Week.

Houston Texans 23 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +10

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers: 2017 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) at Carolina Panthers (4-1)

Ordinarily, in a Thursday night non-conference matchup like this, the smart move is to take home favorites, as they are 35-18 ATS all-time. It makes sense that better teams would cover at a high rate at home on a short week. Unfortunately, the Panthers, home favorites here, are not the better of these two teams, as I have these two teams about 2 points apart in my rankings. Both teams are 4-1, but the Panthers are not a top level team without Greg Olsen and Ryan Kalil, who remain out of the lineup on offense. The Panthers have had good offensive performances in the past 2 weeks against a pair of bad defenses (Detroit and New England), but they were held to just 13 points at home in week 3 by the Saints, who are not a good defense either.

The Eagles are by far the best defense the Panthers have faced all season, especially with Fletcher Cox expected back from a 2 game absence on defense, after practicing in full on Wednesday. The Eagles are likely going to be without right tackle Lane Johnson on a short week with a concussion, but they still have overall the more talented roster. On the season, they are +28 in first downs and +2 in offensive touchdowns, while the Panthers are +14 and +0 in those 2 categories respectively. We’re getting good line value with the Eagles, who are worth a bet at +3.5. I would hold off on +3 though, as about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal exactly.

Also, by request, I’m going to be posting lines I lock in early in the week during my Thursday Night writeups this season, so readers can lock them in before they move. These are not all my picks for the week, just picks where I think the line may move in an unfavorable direction (usually underdogs). The rest of the writeups will continue to be posted over the weekend as normal.

CLE +10 @ HOU

PIT +4.5 @ KC

Carolina Panthers 24 Philadelphia Eagles 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3.5

Confidence: Medium

2017 Week 5 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

GB +2 @ DAL

High Confidence Picks

MIN -3 @ CHI

SEA +1.5 @ LAR

Medium Confidence Picks

CLE +2 vs. NYJ

OAK -2.5 vs. BAL

LAC+3.5 @ NYG

Low Confidence Picks

TEN +1.5 @ MIA

JAX +7.5 @ PIT

PHI -6.5 vs. ARZ

DET -2 vs. CAR

IND -1.5 vs. SF

No Confidence Picks

TB +5.5 vs. NE

BUF +3 @ CIN

KC PK @ HOU

Upset Picks

SEA +105 @ LAR

TEN +105 @ MIA

GB +110 @ DAL

CLE +110 vs. NYJ

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) at Houston Texans (2-2)

The Texans dropped 57 points on the Titans last week, picking up 33 first downs in the process. That performance was night and day from their week 1 performance in a 29-7 loss to the Jaguars. The obvious difference is the quarterback, as week 1 starter Tom Savage was benched at halftime against the Jaguars and replaced with first round pick Deshaun Watson, but Watson’s career didn’t get off to a great start either. He struggled to move the ball in the second half against Jacksonville week 1 and then again in Cincinnati week 2, before taking a big step forward against a weak New England defense week 3.

Watson’s week 4 game was easily his best performance yet and a big part of that was the return of Will Fuller from injury. A first round pick in 2016, Fuller had an up and down rookie year, showing blazing speed, but struggling with drops, before missing the first 3 games of this season with a broken collarbone. He looked like a new receiver in his first game back and that, along with the improved play of Watson, helped lead to arguably the best single game offensive performance by any team all season. Fuller and Watson might not always be that good this season and they still have major problems on the offensive line, but they run the ball well with Watson under center and have a pair of talented outside receivers in DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller that Watson can hit off of play action. At the very least, their offensive outlook looks better than it did at the start of the season.

This week, they face a banged up Kansas City team. The Chiefs are 4-0, but they’re going to be missing 4 week 1 starters with injury in this one, center Mitch Morse, guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, safety Eric Berry, and outside linebacker Dee Ford. The Chiefs have had some close calls so far this season and aren’t as good as their record suggests, but I still have them about 4 points better than Houston. This line is a pick ‘em, suggesting that the visiting Chiefs are about 3 points better. We’re not getting any real line value with the Chiefs, but they’re probably the smarter choice in a game that’s close to a toss up.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Houston Texans 16

Pick against the spread: Kansas City PK

Confidence: None

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (2-2) at Chicago Bears (1-3)

The Vikings have had some of the worst injury luck in the league over the past couple seasons and the injury bug struck again in last week’s loss to the Lions, when promising rookie running back Dalvin Cook tore his ACL, ending his season. The good news is they get quarterback Sam Bradford back from a 3-game absence with a bone bruise on his knee. The Vikings were incredibly cautious with Bradford, who has had two surgeries on that knee, so he’s probably close to 100% if they’re letting him play.

That’s bad news for the Bears, as Sam Bradford had arguably the best game of his career in week 1 before getting hurt. The Bears’ defense isn’t as bad as the defense of the New Orleans Saints, the Vikings’ week 1 opponent, but they’re not nearly as talented as they were when they entered the season, with middle linebacker Jerrell Freeman, safety Quintin Demps, and outside linebacker Willie Young out for the season and middle linebacker Danny Trevathan suspended for this game for an illegal hit in last week’s loss to the Packers.

Bradford should have a good game against them, as he has been playing the best football of his career since arriving in Minnesota last year and he has an improved supporting cast around him in 2017, even with Dalvin Cook out. His top-2 receivers, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, have both taken steps forward and the Vikings have better running backs and offensive linemen this season, after making several additions this off-season, including left tackle Riley Reiff, right tackle Mike Remmers, and new starting running back Latavius Murray.

The Vikings also have a strong defense, so if they can stay healthy, they could be one of the more complete teams in the league. Against a banged up Bears team with a first-time starting quarterback in Mitch Trubisky, the Vikings should be favored by more than 3 points. I have this line calculated at -6.5 in favor of the Vikings, so we’re getting good line value with an underrated Vikings team. The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because the Vikings could get caught looking forward to Green Bay next week, but I still give them a good chance to cover both this week and likely next. This is a high confidence pick.

Minnesota Vikings 20 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -3

Confidence: High

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)

The Bills aren’t getting a lot of attention, but they’ve been a pleasant surprise so far. They’re 3-1 with wins over Denver and Atlanta and their only loss was in Carolina in a game they had a chance to win at the end. Their receiving corps are a major problem, especially with de facto #1 receiver Jordan Matthews now injured, but their defense has overperformed under new head coach Sean McDermott, who has always gotten the most out of his defenses, they have a solid running game, and they have a capable quarterback under center in Tyrod Taylor. Losing Matthews hurts, but they do get talented left tackle Cordy Glenn back from injury for the first time since week 2, to add to what was already a capable offensive line. They could easily push for a playoff spot in the AFC.

That being said, the Bengals aren’t much worse than the Bills, despite their 1-3 record. They too have a strong defense, especially with guys like Adam Jones, Shawn Williams, and Vontaze Burfict back after missing the start of the season, and their offense has been better since firing offensive coordinator Ken Zampese. Their offensive line will be a problem all year, but they have some playmakers around Andy Dalton, so they’re not one of the worst offenses in the league like they appeared to be to start the season. I have this line calculated at -2 in favor of the Bengals at home. At +3, The Bills are the smarter pick for pick ‘em purposes, but I wouldn’t bet anything on either side in this game.

Cincinnati Bengals 17 Buffalo Bills 15

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: None

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (3-1) at Detroit Lions (3-1)

The Panthers entered the season on my underrated list, but they’ve had bad injury luck thus far. They’ve lost tight end Greg Olsen and center Ryan Kalil, two of their most important offensive players, for an extended period of time, while Cam Newton has not looked sharp in his return from shoulder surgery. This week, safety Kurt Coleman is added to the list of injured starters, while left tackle Matt Kalil could also be out after barely practicing this week with a groin injury. The Panthers might actually be a little overrated right now, following their upset win in New England. It’s not that beating the Patriots in New England isn’t impressive, but the Patriots have not been as good this season and they were in a tough spot with another game in 4 days. Prior to that game, the Panthers lost 34-13 at home to the Saints.

The Lions, meanwhile, were on my overrated list coming into the season. They went 9-7 last season, but they had just 1 win by more than a touchdown and no wins over playoff teams and they lost left tackle Taylor Decker and defensive end Kerry Hyder with injuries before the season even started. They’re 3-1, but they’ve lost the first down battle in all 4 games, despite not playing that tough of a schedule, with games against the Cardinals, who was leading until David Johnson got hurt, the Giants, who held them to 12 first downs, the Falcons, who beat them despite being -3 in takeaways, and the Vikings, who were starting Case Keenum at quarterback.

However, I think we’re actually getting a little bit of line value here because Carolina is a little overrated after last week’s win. I have these two teams about equal, so this line should be at -3, but it’s at -2 instead. That’s not a ton of line value so I can’t be that confident in the Lions, but they should be able to beat a banged up Carolina team at home by a field goal or more, so they should be the right pick in pick ‘em leagues. I wouldn’t recommend betting on the Lions this week though.

Detroit Lions 23 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against the spread: Detroit -2

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (0-4) at New York Giants (0-4)

The Chargers are 0-4 on the season and are now 9-27 over the past 3 seasons, but they’ve been ridiculously unlucky. They are just 4-19 in games decided by a touchdown or less over that time period and a whopping 10 of their 27 losses have come by 3 points or fewer. That’s very relevant considering this line is 3.5 in favor of the hometown Giants. The Chargers are also unlucky to play in front of the home crowds that they play in front of, as they attract a disproportionately large amount of road fans to their games, a problem that has only gotten worse in Los Angeles. As a result, they have little to no homefield advantage. They’re just 5-14 ATS at home since 2015, but 11-6 ATS on the road.

They’re on the road here and frankly that might be a welcomed sight for this team at this point. At least you expect road crowds to cheer against you. At the very least, the Chargers won’t be nearly at as much of a disadvantage on the road as regular teams. They almost won in Denver earlier this year. The Giants are better than their 0-4 record too, but the Chargers are the better of these two teams and the Giants are also banged up, missing center Weston Richburg and possibly missing defensive ends Jason Pierre-Paul and Olivier Vernon. Those three are all key players and, even if JPP and Vernon play, they could be limited and have not been playing well so far this season. The Chargers have a good chance to win this straight up and, even if they don’t, I like their chances of keeping this within a field goal.

New York Giants 24 Los Angeles Chargers 23

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +3.5

Confidence: Medium