2018 Week 1 NFL Picks

Instead of full write ups for my no confidence picks this week, I am doing short write ups here with links to my season previews. The previews are in depth and I don’t have much to say beyond that this week. I will have full write ups for all games as usual beginning next week.

Pick of the Week

CLE +4.5 vs. PIT

High Confidence

JAX -3 @ NYG

TEN -1 @ MIA

Medium Confidence

DET -6.5 vs. NYJ

CIN +2 @ IND

DAL +3 @ CAR

Low Confidence

NE -6 vs. HOU

BAL -7.5 vs. BUF

No Confidence

MIN -6.5 vs. SF

This line is about right, but I could see the Vikings winning by exactly a touchdown.

KC +3.5 @ LAC

I’d take the Chargers if this line was 3. The Chargers are the better team, but have no homefield advantage and have not fared well against the Chiefs in recent years.

CHI +7 @ GB

This is an accurate line. I wouldn’t be surprised by a push.

SEA +3 @ DEN

I have the Seahawks doing better than the Broncos this season, but the Seahawks will be without linebacker KJ Wright in this one, which is a big loss, so I can’t take them with any confidence this week.

ARZ -1 vs. WAS

This is an accurate line. This game is close to a toss up.

OAK +4.5 vs. LAR

I liked the Raiders a lot at +3.5 before the Khalil Mack trade, but this line didn’t move enough. Not only is Mack a huge loss on the field, but the team has to feel dejected that their best player was traded away a week before the start of the season. The Rams will take time to gel early in the season though, as they have a lot of new additions and did not play much in the pre-season.

TB +10 vs. NO

The Buccaneers played a lot of close games last year, with 7 of their 11 losses coming by a touchdown or fewer and they are an underrated team around the quarterback, but Ryan Fitzpatrick could be done as a capable passer in the NFL, so I can’t take them confidently against a good opponent.

PHI +1 vs. ATL

1-0!

Upset Picks

PHI +100 vs. ATL

CIN +115 @ IND

CLE +180 vs. PIT

DAL +130 @ CAR

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