Month: September 2018

New England Patriots at Detroit Lions: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (1-1) at Detroit Lions (0-2)

The Patriots lost last week in Jacksonville, but they get a much easier game this week in Detroit. The Lions have gone 9-7 in back-to-back seasons, but they have finished with a negative first down rate differential both seasons. They’ve had a productive passing game, but have really struggled to run the ball and play defense. They fired head coach Jim Caldwell and replaced him with Bill Belichick understudy Matt Patricia to bring more toughness, but have gotten off to an 0-2 start and now get by far their toughest game of the season, after starting with the Jets and 49ers. The Lions have not been good against tougher competition in recent years, going just 1-11 against eventual playoff teams since 2016.

Despite their loss last week, the Patriots are still an obvious playoff caliber team, even with their receiving corps in flux with Julian Edelman suspended for the first 4 games. They added Josh Gordon this week and, even if he doesn’t play more than a quarter of the snaps as a decoy, he can impact this game because he shifts coverages. Their defense is not healthy, missing defensive end Trey Flowers and safety Patrick Chung with concussions, but the Lions are far from healthy either, with cornerback Darius Slay, right guard TJ Lang, and defensive end Ezekiel Ansah all highly questionable with injuries. The Patriots have also been great off of a loss in the Belichick era, going 47-24 ATS after a loss since 2000 (37-18 ATS with Tom Brady). I wish the Patriots were healthier, but they should be focused after the loss and they should be able to take care of business and win by more than a touchdown against an inferior team that has not fared well against higher level competition.

New England Patriots 37 Detroit Lions 27

Pick against the spread: New England -6.5

Confidence: Medium

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (1-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-1)

This line is at 3, suggesting these two teams are about even. A couple weeks ago, that would have been true, but the Falcons have had serious injury losses early in the season, with running back Devonta Freeman, left guard Andy Levitre, defensive end Takkarist McKinley, linebacker Deion Jones, and safety Keanu Neal all going down in the first 2 weeks of the season. With the Falcons’ roster as it currently is, I have the Saints 5 points better than the Falcons, which would make this line around New Orleans -2.

The Saints have gotten off to a slow start, as they’ve failed to cover twice as big home favorites, losing to the Buccaneers week 1 and coming close to losing to the Browns week 2, which is probably why the line is where it is. I’m not that concerned though. Their schedule has been tougher than it originally looked, as the Buccaneers followed up their win with a win over the Saints, while the Browns could easily be 3-0 right now if they had a competent kicking unit.

The Saints have also typically gotten off to slow starts in recent years, going 2-12 ATS and 3-11 straight up in the first 2 weeks of the season since 2012, before going 50-38 ATS the rest of the year (4-2 ATS in week 3). It’s possible some of that slow start could carry over into this game, but I expect them to be completely focused for a big divisional game and they have the talent edge with the Falcons missing several key contributors. I’m not quite confident enough in the Saints for this to be my Pick of the Week this week, but this is too good of a number to pass on.

New Orleans Saints 33 Atlanta Falcons 30 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3

Confidence: High

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-1-1)

The Jets got screwed by the schedulers early in the season, as they played a Monday night game week 1 and now have to play a Thursday night game week 3, their 3rd game in 11 days. This scheduling quirk has not happened often, but the track record of teams in that Thursday night game is not good, as they are just 5-8 ATS, finishing an average of 4 points behind the spread, including just 1-5 ATS in the last 6 instances. That record alone doesn’t prove anything, but it makes sense that the Jets would be a little bit more tired than the Browns this week.

Making matters worse, the Jets have to go on the road on a short week. Home teams understandably do better on short weeks than road teams and that’s especially true when you exclude games between familiar division opponents and games where the road team is significantly better than the home team. Non-divisional home favorites are 30-15 ATS on Thursday Night Football (with both teams on short rest) all-time. That’s the case here as the Jets are not a significantly better team than the Browns. I actually have the Browns a point better than the Jets in my rankings, so we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Browns as 3 point home favorites.

The Browns haven’t technically won a game yet, but they are clearly an improved team over last year, coming within a competent kicking unit of possibly being 2-0 against a pair of 2017 playoff teams. The Jets won big week 1 in Detroit, but finished with just the 7th best first down rate differential at +5.94% that week and didn’t have a touchdown drive of more than 6 plays all game, benefitting from short fields off turnovers (5 takeaways), big plays on offense (2 touchdowns of 40+ yards), and return touchdowns (2 return touchdowns), all of which tend to be fluky and inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. Last week, they lost at home to a mediocre Dolphins team. I think the Browns have a good chance to cover the 3 and finally break into the win column this week.

Cleveland Browns 20 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -3

Confidence: Medium

2018 Week 2 NFL Pick Results

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Week 2

Total Against the Spread: 10-6

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence Picks: 1-1

Medium Confidence Picks: 3-1

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 4-3

Low Confidence Picks: 4-0

No Confidence Picks: 2-3

Upset Picks: 1-0

2018

Total Against the Spread: 20-11-1

Pick of the Week: 1-1

High Confidence Picks: 2-2

Medium Confidence Picks: 4-3

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 7-6

Low Confidence Picks: 6-0

No Confidence Picks: 7-5-1

Upset Picks: 3-1-1

All-Time (Since 2013)

Total Against the Spread: 711-619-37 (53.37%)

Pick of the Week: 52-35-2 (59.55%)

High Confidence Picks: 82-61-6 (57.05%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 203-156-6 (56.44%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 337-252-14 (57.05%)

Low Confidence Picks: 195-183-13 (51.53%)

No Confidence Picks: 179-184-10 (49.33%)

Upset Picks: 110-137-1 (44.56%)

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: 2018 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (1-0)

This is the toughest game of the week to predict just because we don’t know what kind of shape Aaron Rodgers is going to be in. Rodgers came back in the second half last week after sustaining a knee injury and led the Packers back from down 20 to win the game, but he barely practiced at all this week and the oddsmakers are not buying that he will be at full strength and make it through the whole game, hence why the Packers have opened as 2.5 point home underdogs. That’s tied for the most points the Packers have gotten in a home regular season game with Aaron Rodgers under center since 2009, as the Packers are a ridiculous 33-6 at Lambeau since 2012 in regular season games Rodgers starts and finishes.

Of course, their opponents this week have something to do with the line too, as they face a Minnesota team that is one of the best in the NFC. Making matters even worse for Rodgers, the Vikings have a tremendous pass rush and were the team that essentially ended his season with a broken collarbone last season. They would be a tough matchup even with a healthy Rodgers, but I would have this line at Green Bay -3.5 if Rodgers was fully healthy, so we’re getting 6 points of line value to compensate for Rodgers’ uncertainty. Given that, I’m going to take the Packers this week, but I can’t take them with any confidence.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Green Bay Packers 23

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +2.5

Confidence: None

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams: 2018 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (0-1) at Los Angeles Rams (1-0)

This was the biggest line movement of any game this week, as the Cardinals went from 8.5 point underdogs on the early line last week to 13 point underdogs this week. The Rams did post the 5th best first down rate differential of any team in the league in a 20 point win in Oakland, while the Cardinals posted the 2nd worst first down rate differential in a 18 point loss at home to the Redskins, but the Raiders are a mediocre team, while the Redskins are solid, so I don’t understand why the line shifted so much. I have the line calculated at -11, so we’re getting some line value with the Cardinals at 13. It would take a lot for me to bet against the Rams right now, but the Cardinals are the pick for pick ‘em pool purposes.

Los Angeles Rams 31 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona +13

Confidence: None

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears: 2018 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (0-1) at Chicago Bears (0-1)

Before the season started, I had the Seahawks making the post-season. They almost made it last season and their offensive line and running game would likely be better and their defense was still solid, despite some of the big names they’ve lost. However, the Seahawks are now dealing with a lot of injury problems. One stud linebacker KJ Wright missed week 1 with injury and is now expected to miss week 2 as well, while fellow stud linebacker Bobby Wagner will also be out this week. On top of that, starting cornerbacks Shaq Griffin and Tre Flowers could both be out with injury and, on the offensive side of the ball, #1 receiver Doug Baldwin is out with injury.

Despite that, this line has stayed still at 3 points in favor of the hometown Bears, which suggests these two teams are about even. The Seahawks did not play well in Denver last week, finishing with a -9.80% first down rate differential and just 13 first downs to Denver’s 25, despite only losing by 3 points, and they figure to struggle even more this week, given all of the players they are missing. The Bears are still a top-10 team in terms of talent with the addition of Khalil Mack, despite their late game meltdown against the Packers. I still don’t fully trust Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, but they’ve improved their scheme and talent around him and they have a great defense, so this line is too good to pass on.

Chicago Bears 24 Seattle Seahawks 15

Pick against the spread: Chicago -3

Confidence: High

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2018 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0)

The Buccaneers pulled off the biggest upset of week 1, going into New Orleans and beating the reigning NFC South champs by 8 points as 10 point underdogs. How well 35-year-old backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick played in the absence of the suspended Jameis Winston was a big surprise, but it wasn’t a surprise that the Buccaneers were able to play the Saints competitively. Despite a tough schedule and despite Winston being out or limited with injury for half of the season, the Buccaneers were still better than their 5-11 record in 2017, going just 2-7 in games decided by 7 points or fewer and finishing 12th in first down rate differential at +1.13%. Before the Winston suspension, I considered the Buccaneers a sleeper in the NFC.

Last week’s win in New Orleans moved this line significantly, with the Eagles going from being 6 point favorites to 3.5 point favorites, which makes the Buccaneers a much less attractive bet. Fitzpatrick is no guarantee to continue playing well, given his age and history of inconsistency, and the Buccaneers are also missing their top-2 cornerbacks with both Brent Grimes and Vernon Hargreaves out with injury.

The Buccaneers also had a negative first down differential last week, despite the win (-2.54%). Their offense (50.00%) played well, but their defense was horrendous (52.54%). Nick Foles and the Eagles’ offense should find it much easier to move the ball this week than in their opener against the Falcons, especially given the Buccaneers’ injuries at cornerback. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers’ offense faces a much tougher test this week against the Eagles’ defense than last week in New Orleans and Fitzpatrick could easily regress. I’m still taking the Buccaneers for pick ‘em purposes, but there’s no line value with them at 3.5, so they’re not worth a bet.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +3.5

Confidence: None

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2018 Week 2 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (0-1) at Dallas Cowboys (0-1)

The Cowboys are one of the more shorthanded teams in the league right now. A promising young defense is missing it’s best interior pass rusher David Irving with a suspension and one of it’s most promising young players safety Xavier Woods with injury, while their offense is not nearly the same without All-Pro center Travis Frederick, who remains out indefinitely with a rare illness. Dak Prescott has not shown the ability to play well when he doesn’t have a strong supporting cast and, with the offensive line being a shell of it’s 2016 self and the receiving corps losing both Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, he does not have a strong supporting cast right now and the defense isn’t good enough to compensate.

The Cowboys lost their opener 16-8 in Carolina last week, against an also banged up Carolina team that should have been beatable for the Cowboys, who typically play well on the road. Now the Cowboys return home, but they haven’t had much homefield advantage in recent years. While they’ve done well on the road as a result of a national fanbase, going 36-29 on the road (37-28 ATS) since 2010, they are just 32-34 at home (24-42 ATS) over that same time period.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, they don’t have a tough opponent this week, with the Giants coming to town. Casual bettors seem to think the Giants are much improved this year because of the return of Odell Beckham and the addition of Saquon Barkley, but they still have major problems on the offensive line and at quarterback and their defense is not nearly as good as it was when they made the postseason in 2016, especially with Olivier Vernon out for the start of the season. This line is only 3 points, so the Cowboys should be able to cover, but I wouldn’t recommend betting them.

Dallas Cowboys 26 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -3

Confidence: Low