Month: November 2019

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans: 2019 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 10 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Titans

Kansas City Chiefs (6-3) at Tennessee Titans (4-5)

When Pat Mahomes went down in severe pain during the Chiefs’ Thursday Night Football game against the Broncos a few weeks ago, it looked like the Chiefs’ season might be over. Instead, Mahomes only missed about two and a half games, the Chiefs only lost once in his absence, and now Mahomes returns to a team that is 6-3 and still very much in the mix for a first round bye in the AFC. 

The Chiefs may have treaded water without Mahomes, but his return is undoubtedly a major boost for this team. In 32 drives in place of Mahomes, backup Matt Moore led this offense to 44 first downs and 6 offensive touchdowns on 154 plays, a 32.47% first down rate. That’s down significantly from the 44.96% first down rate the Chiefs have had in the 22 games Mahomes has started and finished over the past two seasons.

The reason the Chiefs were able to stay afloat without Mahomes is that their defense stepped up, allowing a 31.44% first down rate over the past 3 games, after allowing a 41.85% first down rate in the 22 games Mahomes started and finished over the past couple seasons. Has this defense finally turned a corner? It’s possible, but there were no major changes on this defense, so I’m skeptical they are for real based off of just three games. More likely, the Chiefs’ defense was just playing extra hard for a short stretch while their quarterback was out. Now with Mahomes back, they may not be able to maintain that level of effort. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see this whole team relax a little bit with their MVP franchise quarterback back.

If that happens, the Titans could easily catch this Chiefs’ team off guard at home in Nashville. The Titans led the league with nine games against eventual playoff opponents in 2018 and won four of them, including multi-touchdown wins over the Cowboys and Patriots. Despite the tough schedule, the Titans finished last season at 9-7, falling just short of qualifying for the post-season. This season, they have started 4-5, but they’ve been better than their record suggests.

They have a positive point differential at +5 and, while they have benefitted from the turnover margin (+5, 6th in the NFL), which tends to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, they have also missed a league leading 8 field goals, which is effectively 8 turnovers, as not only do you lose out on the 3 points, but the opposing team gets the ball at the spot of the miss. The Titans first down rate differential (13th, +1.47% in the NFL) is very similar to last season’s (14th, +1.35% in the NFL), but they’ve fallen to a 46.7% field goal percentage from 86.7%. 

Normal kicker Ryan Succop returned last week from injury and, while he went 0-3 in his season debut, he was an 86.6% field goal kicker for the Titans over the previous 5 seasons and may have just needed a game to shake off the rust. His poor performance was a big part of the reason why the Titans couldn’t pull the upset in Carolina in a game in which they won the first down rate battle by 3.95% but lost by 10.

Even though the Titans have a good chance to catch the Chiefs off guard and possibly pull the upset, they’re still 6-point home underdogs. I have the Chiefs at -1, so we’re getting significant line value with the host. The odds makers (and the public) seem to forget that the Chiefs lost at home to the Colts and Texans and nearly lost in Detroit even with Mahomes under center. Unless the Chiefs’ defense can keep up their recent intensity, this should be a close game. The Titans are my Pick of the Week.

Tennessee Titans 24 Kansas City Chiefs 23 Upset Pick +225

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +6

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers: 2019 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 10 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Packers, Panthers

Carolina Panthers (5-3) at Green Bay Packers (7-2)

The Packers surprisingly lost to the Chargers last week, but the Chargers were healthier in that game than they’ve been all season, so it’s not a huge surprise the Packers had trouble with a team that was one of the better teams in the league a year ago. The Packers are still well positioned in the NFC at 7-2 and are still one of my top ranked teams. They also tend to do well off of a loss in the Aaron Rodgers era, going 34-21 ATS off of a loss with Rodgers under center since his first season as a starter in 2008. 

The Packers also head home this week, where they are 41-21 ATS since 2011 in games Rodgers starts and finishes. They face a Panthers team that is 5-3 and that has lost just once in 6 games since inserting backup quarterback Kyle Allen into the lineup for an injured Cam Newton, but that loss came by 38, while some of their wins have been close games that could have gone either way. On the season, they have just a +5 point differential, despite benefitting from a +6 turnover margin that ranks 5th in the NFL. Turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and the Panthers rank just 21st in the league with a -2.52% first down rate differential. That lines up with my roster rankings, which have them 18th.

I have this line calculated at Green Bay -10, giving us a ton of line value with the Packers as 5-point favorites. The line has shifted a point and a half from the early line last week as a result of the Packers’ loss, but even at -6.5 the Packers would have been an enticing bet. I like their chances of bouncing back at home a lot, against an overrated opponent, especially with a bye on deck. Home favorites of 6+ are 49-17 ATS since 2002 before a bye and, while the Packers aren’t favored by that many points, they should be, so the logic still holds. They should be focused and take care of business without any upcoming distractions. This would be my Pick of the Week if the Packers didn’t have a pair of banged up key defensive backs (Jaire Alexander and Adrian Amos), but both seem likely to play through their injuries and the Packers are otherwise healthy.

Green Bay Packers 30 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -5

Confidence: High

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts: 2019 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 10 NFL Picks, Colts, Dolphins, NFL Picks

Miami Dolphins (1-7) at Indianapolis Colts (5-3)

The Dolphins won their first game of the season last week, but that wasn’t all that surprising. Winless teams tend to be good bets this late in the season (55-31 ATS in week 8 or later) because they tend to be undervalued and highly motivated to get their first win and the Dolphins were at home facing a Jets team that didn’t rank much higher than them. The Dolphins’ win moved this line from Indianapolis -15 on the early line last week to Indianapolis -11.5 this week, but the Dolphins are unlikely to have that same motivation after winning their first game.

In fact, after basically winning their Super Bowl last week, I expect the Dolphins to be relatively flat, especially with a much bigger divisional game against the Bills on deck. The Dolphins are +7.5 on the early line and teams have a lot of trouble covering before being big home underdogs, going 43-77 ATS before being home underdogs of 6+ since 2014. On top of that, underdogs of 6+ are 59-92 ATS before being underdogs of 6+ again the following week, over that same time period.

The Dolphins being flat would be a big problem because they still rank dead last in both my roster rankings and in first down rate differential (-9.38%) and they have a much tougher matchup this week than last week. The Colts haven’t won a game by more than 7 points this season, but they haven’t lost by more than 7 points either and something tells me they won’t have much of a problem winning against a bottom level team like the Dolphins, who already have 5 double digit losses this season and 20 since the start of the 2017 season.

The Colts have an injury concern with quarterback Jacoby Brissett questionable with a knee injury, but I don’t think the drop off from Brissett to backup Brian Hoyer would be all that significant, especially in a matchup like this. Hoyer led the Colts to a loss in Pittsburgh last week in relief of Brissett, but he also threw three touchdowns on the road against a good defense and led the Colts to a +8.95% first down rate differential, with the game swinging entirely on a 97-yard pick six. With Brissett under center, I would have this line calculated at Indianapolis -14.5 and with Hoyer I would have it at Indianapolis -14, giving us line value either way. Add in the Colts being in a better spot and there’s enough to bet the Colts confidently this week.

Update: Brissett has been ruled out, but this line has dropped to 10.5 to compensate, so I still like the Colts.

Indianapolis Colts 33 Miami Dolphins 17

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -10.5

Confidence: Medium

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: 2019 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (6-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-8)

If the Bengals hadn’t benched Andy Dalton, I would have been excited about betting them this week as double digit home underdogs against the Ravens. The Ravens got a huge win at home over the Patriots last week, but that actually works against their chances of covering this week, as teams are just 27-52 ATS since 2002 after 17+ point win as home underdogs. The last instance was the Titans falling flat 38-10 in Indianapolis a week after pulling a huge home upset over the Patriots. The Ravens played last week like it was their Super Bowl and will likely have a tough time getting up for a winless Bengals team, especially with another big game on deck against the Texans. Winless teams tend to be good bets this late in the season anyway, going 55-31 ATS in week 9 or later over the past 30 seasons, as winless teams tend to be undervalued and highly motivated to get their first win.

On top of that, as impressive as their win last week was, the Ravens have also won 3 games by a combined 15 points against 3 teams who are now a combined 7-17 (including a mere 6-point home victory over these Bengals) and they lost at home by 15 to a now 2-6 Browns team. If the Ravens don’t bring their a-game, this could easily be a close matchup. The Bengals are still missing AJ Green, but are healthier coming out of their bye than they’ve been for most of the season, with players like left tackle Cordy Glenn, defensive ends Carlos Dunlap and Carl Lawson, and cornerbacks William Jackson and Darqueze Dennard all expected to play after missing varying amounts of time in the first half of the season.

Unfortunately, I can’t recommend a bet now that Dalton has been benched. Dalton’s statistical production has been arguably the worst of his career this season, but he’s also had the worst supporting cast he’s ever had around him. He was far from the problem for this winless team and benching him for 4th round rookie Ryan Finley is not a move the Bengals made to give themselves a better chance to win games this season. In a lost season, this is all about evaluating for the future, with the chance at drafting a franchise quarterback atop the draft very much in reach. The Bengals are still the pick for pick ‘em purposes, but I have this line calculated at Baltimore -10 with Finley under center, so we’re not getting enough points to bet the Bengals confidently.

Update: Glenn is still out for the Bengals despite practicing in full all week. That doesn’t change my pick, however, as I still like the Bengals chances of keeping this relatively close with the Ravens in a bad spot, but not enough to bet on it.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Cincinnati Bengals 16

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +10.5

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders: 2019 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 10 NFL Picks, Chargers, NFL Picks, Raiders

Los Angeles Chargers (4-5) at Oakland Raiders (4-4)

The Chargers had an impressive 26-11 victory over the Packers last week, but that wasn’t necessarily surprising. The Chargers, who went 12-4 last season, are as healthy as they’ve been all season. Left tackle Russell Okung, edge defender Melvin Ingram, and tight end Hunter Henry all healthy back healthy and playing well after missing significant time, leaving safety Derwin James as their only key injury absence. 

James was one of the top safeties in the league last season, but even without him the Chargers are a playoff caliber team. They rank 12th in my roster rankings and, despite their early season injuries, the Chargers actually rank 11th in first down rate differential on the season at +2.54%, albeit against an easy schedule. With all five of their losses coming by a touchdown or less, the Chargers rank 13th in point differential at +15, despite not benefiting from turnovers, at -3.

The most impressive part of the Chargers’ win was that they played so well at home, in front of a crowd that had so many Packers fans that the game might as well have been in Lambeau. The Chargers have underwhelmed at home since moving to Los Angeles, where they have no fans, going 7-12-1 ATS, but the flip side of that is they’ve traveled well, going 14-6-2 ATS away from Los Angeles. 

Despite the Chargers’ impressive win, this line has not moved significantly in the past week, going from Oakland -2.5 on the early line last week to Los Angeles -1 this week, which barely matters because only about 8% of games are decided by 2 points or fewer. Using 1 point for homefield advantage instead of the standard 3 points because the Chargers travel so well, this line suggests that the Chargers are only a couple points better than the Raiders, which I disagree with.

While the Chargers are a playoff caliber team now that they are healthier, the Raiders still are a middling team at best, ranking 24th in point differential at -34 and 26th in first down rate differential at -3.98%. They’ve faced a tougher schedule than the Chargers and could have their starting five offensive linemen together for this game for the first time all season if center Rodney Hudson can return from a one-game absence, but both Hudson and right tackle Trent Brown are dealing with injuries that could limit them or be re-aggravated mid-game. Their defense, meanwhile, is still horrendous, allowing the second highest first down rate differential in the league at 41.53%. I have these two teams about four points apart, suggesting the Chargers should be favored by a field goal on the road (and by five points if this game was in Los Angeles). In a game the Chargers just need to win to cover, they’re worth a small bet this week.

Los Angeles Chargers 23 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -1

Confidence: Medium

Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs: 2019 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (6-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-3)

Pat Mahomes has not officially been ruled out for the second straight week, as he works back from a dislocated kneecap, but he worked with the second team in practice all week and is not expected to start this game, with oddsmakers already putting up a line of Minnesota -4 before an official confirmation on Mahomes’ status. I’m hesitant to lock this game in before confirmation, but if Mahomes does not play and this line remains about the same, I expect to make a wager on the Vikings.

It’s not exactly a bold take to say that the Chiefs are significantly worse without Mahomes, but they’ve fallen from a 44.96% first down rate with Mahomes over the past 2 seasons to a 32.29% first down rate with backup Matt Moore, who has quarterbacked this offense to just 27 first downs and 4 offensive touchdowns on 96 snaps across 18 drives. The Chiefs’ defense has allowed a 41.09% first down rate since the start of last season, so they need Mahomes back in a hurry if they’re going to lock down a first round bye in the AFC. 

The Chiefs are getting healthier on defense with stud defensive tackle Chris Jones back from injury, but they’ve struggled even with him on the field over the past two seasons, so he won’t fix their defensive issues by himself. The Chiefs could also still be without defensive end Frank Clark and slot cornerback Kendall Fuller, a pair of above average starters, who are listed questionable for this game, and they have injury problems around the quarterback on offense as well. 

Left guard Andrew Wylie returns from a 3-game absence, but right guard Laurent Duvarney-Tardif will take his spot on the sideline and left tackle Eric Fisher will miss his 7th straight game. I have the Vikings, one of the top teams in the NFL, calculated as 8.5-point road favorites in this matchup, so I’d take the Vikings as 4-point favorites confidently if I knew Mahomes was guaranteed to be out. This is yet another game I’ll likely be updating tomorrow morning.

Sunday Update: Mahomes is officially out. The line has jumped to 5.5, but 5 is not a key number, so I still like the Vikings for a small bet as long as the line remains under 6. Clark and Fuller are also out for Kansas City.

Minnesota Vikings 27 Kansas City Chiefs 16

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -5.5

Confidence: Medium

Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders: 2019 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (3-3-1) at Oakland Raiders (3-4)

The Raiders only lost by a field goal in Houston last week, but they lost the first down battle 29-15. While the Texans’ three touchdowns came on long drives, the Raiders scored twice on plays of 46+ yards, which is very tough to do week-to-week. Even with that loss being close on the scoreboard, the Raiders’ four losses this season have come by an average of 14.75 points per game, while their three wins have come by an average of 6.00 points per game, giving them a -41 point differential that ranks 24th in the NFL. In terms of first down rate differential, they rank 27th at -4.15%.

The Lions aren’t much better, but we’re getting some line value with them as 3-point road underdogs, especially if Raiders center Rodney Hudson is unable to play through an ankle injury. The Raiders are also on a tight turnaround before next week’s Thursday game against the division rival Chargers and favorites only cover about 45% of the time before Thursday Night Football. The Lions have some key players uncertain with injuries as well (defensive tackles A’Shawn Robinson and Damon Harrison), so I may ultimately end up deciding to make a bet on the Lions. I’ve been saying this a lot this week, but this is another game that I might update tomorrow morning.

Sunday Update: There has been no update on Hudson this morning and I think all the +3s will disappear if he doesn’t play, so I’m leaving this as is.

Final Update: Hudson is inactive, while Harrison and Robinson are active for Detroit. I have this line calculated at Oakland -1 and, with the Raiders in a tough spot before another game in 4 days, I think the Lions have a good spot to pull the small upset

Detroit Lions 27 Oakland Raiders 26 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3

Confidence: Medium

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2019 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-4)

The Steelers have been one of the most impacted by injury teams in the league this season. The big injury was obviously to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who went down for the season with an elbow injury in the first half of the second game of the season. With backup Mason Rudolph under center for most of the season, the Steelers have fallen to 21st in first down rate at 34.35%, a year after ranking 6th in at 40.55% in 2018. They’ve also suffered a major injury on defense as well, with All-Pro caliber defensive end Stephon Tuitt out for the season with a torn pectoral, though they have more talent on defense to make up for his absence, led by Cameron Heyward and TJ Watt, who have also played at an All-Pro level in 2019. This week, the Steelers will also be without starting running back James Conner and starting left guard Ramon Foster. 

The Colts have also been very impacted by injuries. They’ve had 7 expected starters miss time with injury this season: wide receiver TY Hilton, cornerbacks Kenny Moore and Pierre Desir, safeties Malik Hooker and Clayton Geathers, linebacker Darius Leonard, and defensive end Jabaal Sheard. They were as healthy as they’ve been all season in a near home loss to the Broncos last week, but this week they could be without Desir, Hilton (already ruled out), Hooker, and defensive end Justin Houston. Despite the Colts’ 5-2 record, these two teams aren’t far apart, as all seven games the Colts have played have been decided by seven points or less. I tentatively have this line calculated at Pittsburgh -3, factoring in the Colts’ injury situation, but it’s hard to make a definitive call on this game without knowing the status of Desir, Hooker, and Houston. I’ll likely have an update tomorrow morning. 

Sunday Update: Houston and Hooker will both play, despite not practicing Friday. I have this line calculated at Pittsburgh -2, so there’s not enough here to take the Steelers with confidence.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh PK

Confidence: Low

Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Chargers: 2019 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (7-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-5)

The Chargers have gotten off to a disappointing 3-5 start, a year after going 12-4, but all five of their losses were decided by a touchdown or less and they are getting healthier as the season has gone on. They’ve already gotten back tight end Hunter Henry (who ranks first in the NFL in yards per game by a tight end), talented defensive end Melvin Ingram, and top offensive lineman Russell Okung, who is likely to pull a full set of snaps this week after being limited in his return last week. They rank 12th in my roster rankings and could go on a surprise run down the stretch.

Unfortunately, they are only 3.5-point home underdogs here against the Packers. Not only are the Packers one of the top teams in the league, but the Chargers have next to no homefield advantage in Los Angeles (6-12-1 ATS since moving there, as opposed to 14-6-2 ATS on the road) due to their inability to draw home fans. The Packers are one of the most popular teams in the country, so I imagine the vast majority of fans at this game will be rooting for the road team. With the Chargers lack of homefield advantage taken into account, I have this line calculated at Green Bay -4.5, so, while we’re not getting much line value with the Packers at -3.5, they seem like the right side.

Green Bay Packers 31 Los Angeles Chargers 27

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -3.5

Confidence: None