Year: 2020

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks: 2020 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2020 NFL Picks, 2020 Week 5 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (1-3) at Seattle Seahawks (4-0)

Russell Wilson has been one of the top quarterbacks in the league throughout his career, but he’s never started a season this well, completing 75.2% of his passes for an average of 9.38 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, with 95 rushing yards in 4 games. The Seahawks overall rank 2nd in the league with a 44.80% first down rate, only behind the Green Bay Packers. This is as talented of an offensive supporting cast as Wilson has ever had, but there’s no denying how valuable Wilson has been for this team thus far. Wilson has somewhat famously never gotten an MVP vote, but it’s safe to say he’ll be in the mix this year if he continues playing this well.

The concern for the Seahawks is that, as well as Wilson is playing, they still aren’t blowing out most of their competition. They won by 13 points week 1 against the Falcons, but the Falcons are one of the worst teams in the league and their other three wins have come by one score, including games against the Cowboys and Dolphins. This isn’t anything new, as the Seahawks won 10 of their 11 wins by one score last season.

The Seahawks’ defense, which ranks 19th in first down rate allowed at 40.68%, is a definite concern, as the Seahawks could see some of their close wins turn to losses if Wilson falls back to earth the rest of the way. Those defensive concerns are even bigger this week with the Seahawks missing safety Jamal Adams due to injury, as Adams is arguably their best defensive player and the top safety in the league.

The Seahawks face a 1-3 Vikings team at home in Seattle this week, but they won’t have their normal homefield advantage and the Vikings are better than their record suggests, as they’ve had some things go against them that are very inconsistent week-to-week, like their -4 turnover margin (5th worst in the NFL), their 22.22% fumble recovery rate (2 of 9, including 1 for 7 on fumbles forced), and the 15 of 15 field goals that opponents have hit against them.

In fact, the Vikings actually rank just slightly behind the Seahawks in first down rate differential (+4.12% vs. +3.84%), despite the fact that they’ve faced a much tougher schedule. DVOA doesn’t have them quite as close, but the Vikings rank 13th, 7 spots behind the Seahawks, which still suggests we’re getting significant line value with the visitor. They should be able to keep this game close like most teams do with the Seahawks and they should also have a better chance to come in and get the straight up win than most expect, especially if Wilson has an off game.

My only concern with this game is the Seahawks are going into their bye, which is usually a good spot for a big home favorite. Since 2002, home favorites of 7+ are 63-25 ATS before a bye. However, the Seahawks are barely 7-point favorites and these two teams are more evenly matched than this line suggests, so I’m not sure this trend applies. My calculated line is just Seattle -4.5, giving the Seahawks 1.5 points for homefield advantage. I don’t like the Vikings as much as my typical Pick of the Weeks, but I don’t see a better option this week. I would be surprised if Seattle was able to win this game by multiple scores, barring some fluky outlier plays.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Minnesota Vikings 27

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears: 2020 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) at Chicago Bears (3-1)

I’ve been on the Buccaneers in a big way for the past three weeks, because I’ve felt their defense was being very underrated, and they’ve covered in all three instances, but unfortunately it seems the line has caught up, as the Buccaneers have gone from being 3-point favorites in this game in Chicago on the early line last week to 5.5-point favorites this week. That takes away all line value, as that is my exact calculated line. I’m still taking the Buccaneers, but it’s purely because it’s a short week and the better team tends to be at even more of an advantage on a short week. 

Non-divisional favorites of a field goal or more typically cover at about a 61.6% rate on Thursday nights, and, though that drops to 55.6% for road favorites, I wonder how much that will matter without normal crowds. We haven’t seen a big road favorite on Thursday yet, so there are no data points to look at, but it makes sense that the Buccaneers would have a better chance than the typical Thursday road favorites of covering. That’s not enough to bet on the Buccaneers and this would likely be a no confidence pick if this was a normal week, but on a short week, I think it’s more likely we get a strong performance from the Buccaneers than the Bears, so I’d recommend them for pick ‘em purposes.

Update: This line has surprisingly dropped to 3.5 in most places, due to heavy sharp action. I don’t know why the sharps are on the Bears and 4 and 5 aren’t key numbers, but I may consider betting Tampa Bay, especially if this line goes all the way down to 3. Stay tuned.

Update #2: While we’re waiting for this line to hopefully drop to 3, I want to lock in Minnesota +7 for this weekend. I’ll still have a full writeup this weekend as normal, but I was planning on being on the Vikings heavily if Jamal Adams doesn’t play for the Seahawks and he was ruled out early. I don’t want to risk that line dropping from a touchdown, so I’m locking it in now.

Final Update: I’ve been going back and forth on this one, but I think a bet is justified. With the Buccaneers having Leonard Fournette surprisingly active and Mike Evans confirmed active despite missing practice all week on a short week, I have this line calculated at Tampa Bay -6 and they are in a good spot as well. As much as I’d much rather this line be 3, the Buccaneers should win by at least 6-7 points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -3.5

Confidence: Medium

2020 Week 4 NFL Pick Results

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Week 4

Total Against the Spread: 9-5-1

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence Picks: 1-0

Medium Confidence Picks: 3-1-1

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 5-1-1

Low Confidence Picks: 3-3

No Confidence Picks: 1-1

Upset Picks: 0-0

2020

Total Against the Spread: 32-29-2

Pick of the Week: 2-2

High Confidence Picks: 4-2

Medium Confidence Picks: 8-8-1

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 14-12-1

Low Confidence Picks: 15-9

No Confidence Picks: 3-8-1

Upset Picks: 2-2

All-Time (Since 2013)

Total Against the Spread: 1011-864-57 (53.80%)

Pick of the Week: 75-45-5 (62.00%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 483-354-24 (57.49%)

Upset Picks: 156-176-1 (47.00%)

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-0)

At one point it looked like this game might not go on as scheduled, with Patriots quarterback Cam Newton testing positive for coronavirus on Saturday, at the same time a Chiefs practice squad player tested positive. However, after re-testing both teams, it appears to be isolated to the two players and this game will go on as scheduled, with the obvious difference being that the Patriots will have to start to veteran backup Brian Hoyer rather than Cam Newton. 

That’s clearly an impactful absence, as Newton has been one of the more effective quarterbacks in the league this season, leading an offense that ranks 2nd in the league with a 45.77% first down rate. More so than the passing game, the Patriots’ run game figures to be significantly affected by the switch to Hoyer, as the threat of Newton taking off and running has helped propel this running game to 5.09 yards per carry (5th in the NFL), as opposed to a 25th ranked 3.81 yards per carry last season, when they ranked 21st in first down rate even with Tom Brady under center. 

The Patriots’ offensive line is better this season, but their wide receivers aren’t and their defense has taken a big step back, ranking 22nd in first down rate allowed after leading the league in that metric by a wide margin in 2019. Because of how many teams around the league have been plagued with injuries, the Patriots still rank 21st in my roster rankings even without Cam Newton and they do still have a solid supporting cast, but it’s hard to see this being a competitive game anymore.

Of course, the line has shifted to compensate, with the Patriots opening up as 10.5-point underdogs when the line was re-posted, after being 7-point underdogs earlier in the week. I was originally leaning towards New England, possibly for a bet, with my calculated line being -4.5, but without Newton, that calculated line shifts up to 9.5 points. We’re still getting a little bit of line value with the Patriots, who may be better prepared for the abrupt shift because they are going to a quarterback who has been in the system for years, while the Chiefs spent all week game planning for a very different kind of quarterback, but there’s way too much uncertainty for this to be worth betting.

Kansas City Chiefs 27 New England Patriots 17

Pick against the spread: New England +10.5

Confidence: Low

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (3-0)

The Packers won last week in New Orleans to push their record to 3-0. Making that more impressive is the fact that they were without top wide receiver Davante Adams and top defensive lineman Kenny Clark, who has actually missed each of the past two seasons. Both players are expected to return this week after getting limited practices in every day this week, but that’s not a guarantee and the Packers have other key players who are questionable, with both center Corey Linsley and cornerback Jaire Alexander missing practice on Friday. On top of that, top linebacker Christian Kirksey, blocking tight end Marcedes Lewis, and starting wide receiver Allen Lazard are expected to miss their first game of the season this week.

I can’t bet the Packers confidently given all their injury questions, but if they have most or all of their questionable players in the lineup, I think they’re worth a bet. Not only would we be getting some line value with the Packers (my calculated line is Green Bay -10 if Green Bay’s questionables are active), but the Packers are in a great spot at home as big favorites before a bye. Since 2002, home favorites of 7+ are 63-25 ATS before a bye. I’m leaving this as a low confidence pick for now, but if the Packers are relatively healthy, this line is too low. Even if they’re missing key players, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they were still able to take care of business before a bye against this underwhelming Falcons team.

Update: Both Clark and Adams are out again for the Packers. The line has dropped to 5 to compensate, but my calculated line dropped to 6.5, so we’re not getting much value. The Packers are still my pick, but I’m leaving this as a low confidence pick.

Green Bay Packers 34 Atlanta Falcons 27

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -5

Confidence: Low

Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (0-3) at Houston Texans (0-3)

Both of these teams qualified for the post-season last year, but they’ve both gotten off to 0-3 starts that will make it tough for them to make it back to the post-season, even with an extra wild card spot being added. With both teams desperately wanting to avoid going 0-4, this will be essentially a must win game for both teams. A lot of attention has been given to the brutal start to their season that the Texans have had schedule wise, as they’ve faced the Ravens, Chiefs, and Steelers, but the Vikings’ schedule hasn’t been much easier, as they’ve faced the Packers, Colts, and Titans. 

The Vikings have also outplayed the Texans. While the Texans have ranked 27th in first down rate differential at -4.45%, the Vikings have actually ranked 11th at +2.76%, with their struggles being primarily due to a -5 turnover margin that is the third worst in the NFL. Turnover margins are very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so the Vikings won’t necessarily continue struggling with turnovers just because they have in the first three games and they’ve had some other fluky things go against them as well, including teams making 12 of 12 field goals against them and converting 4 for 4 on 4th down (as opposed to 0 for 2 for the Vikings).

Despite the Vikings’ early edge and the fact that the Texans won’t have a normal homefield advantage, the Texans are favored by 3.5 points at home. Given that about 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, this line is way too high. My calculated line is Houston -1, so Minnesota is worth a small bet this week. The two most likely outcomes of this game are either team winning by a field goal, two results that would both be covers for the Texans.

Houston Texans 24 Minnesota Vikings 23

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (3-0) at Miami Dolphins (1-2)

The Seahawks have gotten off to an impressive 3-0 start, but their defense hasn’t been great, ranking 23rd in first down rate allowed, primarily due to their struggles on the defensive line. Their defensive line was expected to be a weakness coming into the season, but the Seahawks’ talented secondary looked like it could make up for that and it hasn’t been quite as good as expected. Making matters worse, cornerback Quinton Dunbar will miss his second straight game with an injury, while stud safety Jamal Adams will join him for his first game sidelined, further weakening their defense.

The Seahawks have a relative easy matchup this week in Miami, but they do have to travel cross-country and Miami has the kind of offense that can move the ball relatively easily on this defense, especially in garbage time. I wouldn’t expect the Seahawks to lose this game, but the Dolphins could easily keep it relatively close or come up with a backdoor cover late. My calculated line suggests we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Seahawks as 5.5-point road favorites, but I’m not confident in them at all.

Seattle Seahawks 33 Miami Dolphins 27

Pick against the spread: Seattle -5.5

Confidence: None

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-2-1)

The Bengals haven’t done a lot of winning in the past couple years, finishing with the worst record in the league at 2-14 in 2019 and getting off to an 0-2-1 start in 2020, but they’ve generally been pretty competitive. Of their 14 losses last season, 8 of those came by 8 points or fewer, while their two losses this season have come by a combined 8 points. They finished last season 24th in first down rate differential at -3.47%, not great, but better than their league worst record suggested, and this year they should be better with the addition of quarterback Joe Burrow and the return of top receiver AJ Green and left tackle Jonah Williams from injuries that cost them all of 2019. So far, the Bengals have been decent in first down rate differential, despite their lack of a win, ranking 18th in the NFL in this early season with a -0.70% first down rate differential. 

The Jaguars have exceeded expectations after being expected to be one of the worst teams in the league, but they still only rank 23rd in first down rate differential at -2.47% and their 30th ranked defense is the kind of unit that could land this team among the worst in the league overall when all is said and done if their offense can’t continue playing at a high level (9th in first down rate). I don’t have the Jaguars as the worst team in the league and quarterback Gardiner Minshew can lead them to a few wins this season that they shouldn’t have otherwise had, like Ryan Fitzpatrick did for the expected league worst Dolphins in 2019, but the Jaguars rank just 29th in my roster rankings, so the 21st ranked Bengals have a significant edge in that as well. Despite that, this line suggests these two teams are about even, favoring the Bengals by just 2.5 points at home.

My calculated line is Cincinnati -5.5, even with minimal homefield advantage this year, so we’re getting good line value with the Bengals in a game where they have to win by only a field goal at home to cover. Unfortunately, the Bengals are in a couple of bad spots. Not only are they likely to be tired after last week’s tie, a spot in which teams are 9-17 ATS over the past 30 seasons, but they also have a big look ahead game on deck, going to Baltimore to face the Ravens, a game in which they are 16.5 point underdogs on the early line. Teams are 40-74 ATS since 2016 before being underdogs of 10 points or more, as that tends to serve as a big upcoming distraction. I’m still taking the Bengals for pick ‘em purposes, but I wouldn’t recommend betting on them.

Cincinnati Bengals 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -2.5

Confidence: Low

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (0-2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-1)

This has been an especially brutal year for injuries in the NFL, but it’s possible no team is as banged up on one side of the ball as the Eagles are on offense. On the offensive line, they were already without left tackle Andre Dillard, left guard Isaac Seumalo, and right guard Brandon Brooks and now they’ll also be without veteran Jason Peters, who was signed originally to replace Brooks at right guard and had been playing left tackle since Dillard went down. 

In the receiving corps, the Eagles are missing tight end Dallas Goedert and incredibly are without their top-4 wide receivers, leaving them with just two healthy wide receivers on the active roster (45 career catches between them), with the rest of the spots to be filled with practice squad players. The Eagles are much healthier on defense, but their offensive injuries are a major problem, especially since quarterback Carson Wentz is struggling independent of the problems around him. Overall, I have the Eagles just 26th in my roster rankings right now.

This week, the Eagles get to play a 49ers team that is also dealing with significant injury absences, including quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, running backs Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert, cornerbacks Richard Sherman, Akhello Witherspoon, and Emmanuel Mosley, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, and defensive ends Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, and Solomon Thomas, but the 49ers are still significantly more talented than the Eagles in their current state. They have one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league in Nick Mullens, fresh off an easy victory over the Giants in his first start of the season last week, and he’ll get a pair of valuable weapons back from injury this week in Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, though Samuel is expected to be limited. Overall, I have them 4.5 points better than the Eagles in my roster rankings.

Given that the 49ers are favored by a touchdown at home, where they’ll have minimal crowd noise, we aren’t really getting line value with them. The 49ers are in a much better spot though, for a couple reasons. For one, the Eagles could be exhausted after playing the Bengals to a tie last week and teams are understandably 9-17 ATS after a tie over the past thirty seasons. On top of that, while the Eagles have to turn around and go to Pittsburgh for another tough matchup next week, the 49ers have another easy game on deck at home against the Dolphins.

Favorites of 7+ are 102-59 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 7+ again, while underdogs of 7+ are 55-90 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 7+ again. Combining the two, favorites of 7+ are 27-5 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 7+ again when their opponent will be underdogs of 7+ again the following week. Good teams tend to take care of business against bad teams without upcoming distractions on their schedule, while bad teams tend to struggle to keep it close against good teams with another tough game on deck. All of those conditions should be true this week. There’s not quite enough here for the 49ers to be worth betting with this line being where it is, but they should be the right side.

San Francisco 49ers 21 Philadelphia Eagles 13

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -7

Confidence: Low