Year: 2022

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 12 NFL Picks, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (7-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)

The Ravens have three losses, but all came by four points or fewer and all came after blowing 4th quarter leads, with the Ravens leading the league in percentage of time leading per game. In terms of point differential, the Ravens rank 7th at +49 and in schedule adjusted efficiency they rank 3rd, about seven points above average. Also healthier now than they were earlier in the year, I consider the Ravens among the best teams in the league and a true Super Bowl contender, which isn’t the consensus opinion of them, so I think they’re a little underrated, even at 7-3.

The Jaguars have been competitive in most of their games this season, but all of their losses have come by more than four points, which would have covered this spread. They have a positive point differential at +11 and a positive schedule adjusted efficiency, about a point above average (13th in the NFL), but they are five points below average in my roster rankings, suggesting they’ve overachieved their talent level and could easily regress going forward. The Ravens should be able to win this game with relative ease and my calculated line has them favored by a full touchdown, so they’re worth a bet here at 3.5.

Update: This line has dropped to 3, so I am increasing the confidence of this bet.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -3

Confidence: Medium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 12 NFL Picks, Browns, Buccaneers, NFL Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) at Cleveland Browns (3-7)

Typically significant road favorites cover at a high rate after a bye week, covering the spread 63.0% of the time as favorites of more than a field goal. At first glance, that would seem to apply to this game, with the Buccaneers favored by 3.5 points, but I don’t think the Buccaneers deserve to be favored by this much. The Browns are just 3-7, but four of their seven losses have come by three points or fewer, which would cover this spread, meaning they would have covered this spread in seven of their ten games this season, including four of their five home games.

Given that, this line seems too high. The Buccaneers have been better in recent weeks and they’re better overall than their 5-5 record suggests, ranking 10th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about two points above average, but this isn’t the same Buccaneers team that we’ve seen in the past couple years, so they shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal on the road against a competent team that is regularly competitive even in their losses.

If the Buccaneers weren’t coming off of a bye, the Browns would be my Pick of the Week, but, even with the Buccaneers being well-rested, we’re getting enough line value with the Browns for them to be worth a big bet, as my calculated line has this as a pick ‘em. The money line at +150 is also worth a bet, as the Browns should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game straight up. Even if they don’t pull the upset, about 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer, so we have a good cushion.

Cleveland Browns 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3.5

Confidence: High

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Titans

Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) at Tennessee Titans (7-3)

The Titans have won seven of their last eight games to go to 7-3 on the season, but their wins haven’t been that impressive, as their only win against a team that isn’t sub .500 came against the 6-5 Commanders and none of those wins have come by more than 10 points. Only two of their wins have come by more than a touchdown and neither win was as impressive as that suggests, as they needed a pick six to make the margin of victory bigger against the Colts, while last week’s 10-point win over the Packers came against a team in a terrible spot, playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-22 ATS all-time.

The Bengals, meanwhile, have one fewer win than the Titans, but four of them have come by more than 10 points and blowout wins are much more predictive of future winning than close wins. On the flip side, three of the Bengals’ four losses have come by three points or fewer, giving them a point differential of +50, significantly better than the Titans at +8. They’re also getting healthier, getting back stud interior defender DJ Reader last week and likely to get back top wide receiver JaMarr Chase this week.

The Bengals are favored on the road here, but they’re only favored by 2.5 points, which is pretty insignificant, with less than 1 in 10 games decided by 2 points or fewer, as opposed to 1 in 6 games decided by 3 points exactly. My calculated line has the Bengals favored by 4.5 points, so we’re getting significant line value with them. This isn’t a big bet, but in a game in which they basically just need to win to cover, the Bengals are worth at least a small bet this week.

Update: JaMarr Chase is surprisingly not playing. I already locked this bet in, so I can’t change it, but the line has dropped to 1 and I would take the Bengals even without Chase at that number.

Cincinnati Bengals 31 Tennessee Titans 26

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -2.5

Confidence: Medium

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 12 NFL Picks, Eagles, NFL Picks, Packers

Green Bay Packers (4-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)

The Packers are 4-7, a year after going 13-4, but their drop off isn’t all that surprising. Despite their record last season, the Packers finished just 10th in point differential and 11th in overall efficiency, even with an MVP season from Aaron Rodgers who, as good as he is, was no guarantee to play at quite the same level in 2022, now in his age 39 season. Add in the loss of by far their top wide receiver Davante Adams this off-season and some regression was to be expected from them, especially on offense.

In many ways, things have gone how you might expect, given the circumstances. The Packers’ defense has remained middling, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency in 2021 and 20th in 2022, but their offense has fallen off significantly, falling from 4th in offensive efficiency a year ago to 15th this season, while their horrendous special teams that ranked dead last efficiency a year ago has only been slightly better this year, ranking 29th. All in all, the Packers rank just 23rd in overall efficiency when adjusted for schedule, about 2.5 points below average, and they’ve been worse in recent weeks, since losing a pair of key defenders, Rashan Gary and De’Vondre Campbell, for an extended period of time.

The Packers have also been especially bad on the road this year, going 1-5 with a -37 point differential away from Lambeau, as opposed to 3-2 with a -4 point differential at home, which is nothing new for them, as they have consistently underperformed on the road with Aaron Rodgers, whose QB rating drops 10 points on the road, far above the league average. Despite that, the Packers are only 6.5-point underdogs in Philadelphia, where the Eagles have won by more than a touchdown in four of their five home games.

The Eagles aren’t quite as good as their 9-1 record, as they’ve benefitted from a league best +12 turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week, but they also rank 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 5.5 points above average, which is predictive, and they are the top team in my roster rankings, so, even if they’ve benefitted from turnovers, it’s hard to argue they’re not at least one of the top few teams in the league. Given that, this line is way too low, as my calculated line favors the Eagles by 11, even before taking into account Aaron Rodgers’ relative struggles on the road. The Packers seem to be a little overrated based on the name value of their quarterback, while the Eagles are getting great value at -6.5. This is my top pick this week.

Philadelphia Eagles 30 Green Bay Packers 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Chicago Bears at New York Jets: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bears, Jets, NFL Picks

Chicago Bears (3-8) at New York Jets (6-4)

The Jets’ offense was embarrassed last week in New England, averaging 2.10 yards per play and converting first downs at a 11.76% rate in a 10-3 loss, but they also had a dominant performance on defense once again and, overall, they rank first in the league in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency. Their offensive performance was obviously abysmal, but they were facing the second ranked defense in the league in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency and they are highly unlikely to be that bad two weeks in a row, especially since they’ve made a change at quarterback, which can’t make things worse. 

The Jets only rank 25th in the league in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, but that’s still a lot better than they looked last week and, overall, they rank 15th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about a half point above average. It also helps that the Jets will face a much easier defense this week, as the Bears rank 26th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency and have been even worse since trading away Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn. They’ll also be without talented rookie safety Jaquan Brisker this week due to injury.

The Bears’ offense has been somewhat keeping them afloat in recent weeks while their defense has struggled mightily, but that’s almost entirely due to the play of quarterback Justin Fields, as they lack a significant amount of talent around him on offense, and Fields is considered highly questionable this week to play through a shoulder injury. The injury is to his non-throwing shoulder, but it could still affect his play and the Bears might prefer to play it safe with their young signal caller, sitting at 3-8, with their season going nowhere, especially given Fields’ propensity to take off and run, taking extra hits in the process.

Even if Fields plays and is limited, my calculated line favors the Jets by 6.5, so we’re getting line value with the Jets at -5.5 either way, especially if Fields is ruled out, in which case my calculated line would jump to 9.5. I don’t think I want to bet on this game right now, but the Jets should be the right pick for pick ‘em purposes and, depending on Fields’ status and where this line settles, I may ultimately end up putting some money on the Jets.

New York Jets 20 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -5.5

Confidence: Low

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 12 NFL Picks, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Texans

Houston Texans (1-8-1) at Miami Dolphins (7-3)

A week ago on the early line, the Texans were 9.5-point underdogs on the early line, but this line has since ballooned to 14. The Dolphins were on bye last week and didn’t play, so this line movement is purely the result of the Texans’ loss to the Commanders last week and the Texans subsequent decision to bench quarterback Davis Mills for backup Kyle Allen. That seems to be an overreaction though, as one bad game shouldn’t cause that big of a line movement, while the switch from Mills to Allen is largely a lateral move, as Mills was arguably the worst starting quarterback in the league.

The Dolphins are undefeated in the seven games that Tua Tagovailoa has started and finished this season, but they aren’t exactly blowing teams out, with just one win that would have covered this 14-point spread. The Texans, meanwhile, have been competitive in most of their losses, with just one loss that would have covered this spread. The Texans are also in a better spot, as the Dolphins could easily overlook the team with the worst record in the league, with a much tougher game against the 49ers on deck. Teams cover at just a 41.6% rate all-time as favorites of a touchdown or more when they are facing an opponent with a winning percentage that is 50% less than their next opponent’s winning percentage, which is the case here. This isn’t a big bet, but the Texans are bettable this week.

Miami Dolphins 27 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: Houston +14

Confidence: Medium

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 12 NFL Picks, Commanders, Falcons, NFL Picks

Atlanta Falcons (5-6) at Washington Commanders (6-5)

A week ago on the early line, the Commanders were favored by three points at home over the Falcons, but this line has since shifted to four, a significant shift, as about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. Normally significant line movements like that tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play and I think that’s the case here, as my calculated line is still at Washington -3. When a home team is favored by exactly a field goal, that usually means they are slightly, but not significantly better than their opponents and I think that’s the case here, whereas a four point line would only be justified if the Commanders were significantly better.

The Falcons are a game behind the Commanders in the standings, but they actually have a slight edge in schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 11th, while the Commanders rank 17th. My roster rankings have the Commanders as the better team, as the Falcons have largely overachieved their talent level this season, while the Commanders are significantly healthier now than they were earlier in the year and have played better since turning to Taylor Heinicke under center, but, either way, these two teams are closer together than this line suggests. There isn’t quite enough here for the Falcons to be worth betting, but the most likely outcome of this game is the Commanders winning by a field goal, so the Falcons at +4 should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Washington Commanders 27 Atlanta Falcons 24

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +4

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 12 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Chargers, NFL Picks

Los Angeles Chargers (5-5) at Arizona Cardinals (4-7)

This game is a tough call. I think both of these teams are overrated and not as good as their record. The Chargers are 5-5, but their five wins have come by a combined 23 points, while their five losses have come by a combined 54 points, giving them a point differential of -31 which ranks 23rd in the NFL. They’re even worse in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 27th, about five points below average, which is more predictive than point differential. They’re getting a little bit healthier with talented wide receiver Keenan Allen returning last week, but they also remains without their other talented wide receiver Mike Williams, stud left tackle Rashawn Slater, expected top cornerback JC Jackson, and stud edge defender Joey Bosa, who would be among their best and most important players if healthy.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 4-7 with a -56 point differential, fourth worst in the NFL, despite a +3 turnover margin, which is not consistent week-to-week. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, they rank 25th, about four points below average, and they are even worse in my roster rankings, about 7.5 points below average, as injuries continue to mount, primarily on the offensive line, where they are missing four expected starters. Meanwhile, their defense is also without top cornerback Byron Murphy.

I’m going to take the Chargers in this game for pick ‘em purposes for two reasons. One is that this line favors the Chargers by 2.5 and, while that’s right where I have this line calculated, the single most likely outcome of this game is the Chargers winning by exactly a field goal, as they are the better team and field goals are the most common margin of victory. On top of that, the Chargers tend to be better than expected on the road, as a result of their lack of homefield advantage in Los Angeles, going 27-16 ATS on the road since moving in 2017, as opposed to 17-27 ATS at home. This is a no confidence pick, but the Chargers seem like the better side. I would probably take the Cardinals at +3 though. That’s how close this one is for me.

Los Angeles Chargers 31 Arizona Cardinals 28

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -2.5

Confidence: None

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bills, Lions, NFL Picks

Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Detroit Lions (4-6)

A week ago on the early line, the Bills were 10-point favorites for this game in Detroit, but the line has since moved to 9.5. That’s not a huge line movement, but 10 is a key number, with about 6% of games decided by exactly 10 points, and the line movement happened despite the fact that the Lions will be missing top cornerback Jeff Okudah and their starting guards Evan Brown and Jonah Jackson this week. The primary reason for the line movement is the Lions pulled the upset over the Giants last week, but that is not as impressive as it might seem, as the Giants were an overrated team that was nowhere near as good as their 7-2 record, with all seven of their wins coming by one score and five coming against teams that are among the worst in the league (4-7 or worse).

The Bills, meanwhile, almost always blow out their opponents, with an average margin of victory of 20.4 points across 19 wins over the past two seasons (19-10), and they are favored by 12.5 points on my calculated line against a mediocre Lions team that is missing several key players due to injury. There isn’t enough here for the Bills to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes, as this seems likely to be the Bills’ 18th double digit win over the past two seasons.

Buffalo Bills 31 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -9.5

Confidence: Low

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 12 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants, NFL Picks

New York Giants (7-3) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)

A week ago on the early line, the Cowboys were 6.5 point favorites, but this line has since shifted all the way to 10, as a result of the Cowboys’ blowout win in Minnesota and the Giants’ blowout loss in Detroit. Normally I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements like this because they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play, but in this case I think the line movement is justified, not only because of the results of last week, but also because the Giants are now missing their two best cornerbacks, Adoree Jackson and Fabian Moreau, as well as several offensive linemen. On top of that, I think the line was too low at 6.5 to begin with.

The Giants are 7-3, but that’s a very misleading record. In addition to their blowout loss to a sub .500 Lions team last week, their second multi-score loss of the season, the Giants’ seven wins have all come by one score, with just two coming against teams that are currently better than 4-7. As a result, the Giants have just a +1 point differential, despite a relatively easy schedule. The Cowboys have the same record at 7-3, but they have a +84 point differential (2nd best in the NFL), despite facing a tougher schedule. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Cowboys rank 7th, 4.5 points above average, while the Giants rank 27th, 4.5 points below average.

That’s despite the fact that the Cowboys were without starting quarterback Dak Prescott for five games earlier this season. He has since returned and the Cowboys are now relatively healthy overall, while the Giants are going the other way injury wise, leading to the Cowboys having a 12-point edge in my roster rankings. Given that, we’re actually still getting some line value with the Cowboys, as my calculated line favors them by 14 points. I wouldn’t bet on the Cowboys at 10, but if this line drops down to 9.5, they would be worth betting at that number and, either way, the Cowboys are the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Dallas Cowboys 27 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: Dallas -10

Confidence: Low