Author: stevenlourie

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (4-0) at Seattle Seahawks (2-2)

Through 4 games, the Rams have been the undisputed top team in football. Not only do they rank first in first down rate differential, their +15.50% mark blows away 2nd place +8.37%. In addition to having the best first down rate in the league at a ridiculous 47.24%, the Rams also have the 5th best first down rate allowed in the league at 31.74%. They are one of two 4-0 teams, with an average margin of victory of 18.25 points per game. They may not be quite this dominant for the whole season and their schedule does get harder, but they are the clear team to beat after the first month of the season.

Fortunately or the Rams, their schedule does not get much harder this week. At one point, going to Seattle to face the Seahawks would have been a daunting task. The Seahawks are 44-10 (33-21 ATS) at home in the Russell Wilson era. They are not that dominant team anymore though. A roster already thinned by retirements and off-season losses got even thinner last week when they lost All-Pro safety Earl Thomas for the season. They also remain without talented every down linebacker KJ Wright, who has yet to make his season debut due to a knee injury. They rank 29th in first down rate at -4.29% and could easily be 1-3 if the Cardinals had made a pair of makeable field goals last week. 

The Seahawks have been especially good as home underdogs in the Russell Wilson era, going 4-0 ATS with 4 straight up wins by an average of 9.25 points per game, and this 7 point line is the most the Seahawks have been home underdogs by in Wilson’s entire career, but this line is totally justifiable, given the talent gap between these two teams. If anything, we’re still getting some line value with the Rams. I can’t take them with any confidence because this game could be Seattle’s Super Bowl, but I do expect the Rams to keep rolling this week.

Los Angeles Rams 28 Seattle Seahawks 20

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -7

Confidence: None

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2018 NFL Picks, 2018 Week 5 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Jaguars, NFL Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)

This is arguably the biggest game of the week, a potential AFC Championship preview with potential playoff seeding implications. The Jaguars come in with one loss, by 3 points at home to the Titans, while the Chiefs are undefeated. Despite that, the Jaguars are actually a little bit better of a team. Both teams have one elite unit: the Jaguars’ defense ranks 1st in first down rate allowed at 26.61% and the Chiefs’ offense ranks 2nd (behind the Rams) in first down rate at 45.78%, but the Jaguars’ offense (24th in first down rate at 33.33%) is better than the Chiefs’ defense (32nd in first down rate allowed at 46.67%). This line at 3 in favor of the hometown Chiefs suggests these two teams are equal, so we’re getting some line value with the Jaguars.

The Jaguars are also in a better spot. While this is a big game for both teams, the Chiefs may have a little bit of split focus this week with a trip to New England on deck, with the Jaguars only have the Cowboys on deck. Underdogs are 80-45 ATS before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, which the Chiefs will be next week. There’s not quite enough here to bet on the Jaguars as mere 3 point underdogs, but if the line moves up to 3.5 before gametime I may reconsider.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 23

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +3

Confidence: Low

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)

The Dolphins began the season 3-0, but then they got blown out 38-7 in New England last week. They lost by so much that they now have a negative -8 point differential on the season and a -0.84% first down rate differential. The Patriots are obviously a tough opponent, but the Dolphins had a pretty easy schedule early in the season and this week they have to go on the road and face another tough opponent in Cincinnati.

The Dolphins’ blowout loss last week cost us some line value with the Bengals, as this line shifted from 3.5 on the early line to 6 this week, but we’re still getting line value with them, as the Dolphins enter this game very banged up. They’ll likely get safety Reshad Jones back from injury this week, but cornerback Bobby McCain and defensive end Cameron Wake, two key defensive players, will sit out, joining rotational defensive ends Andre Branch and WIlliam Hayes and talented guard Josh Sitton on the sidelines. A pretty mediocre roster to begin with, the Dolphins are missing some key pieces.

The Bengals, on the other hand, are getting closer to full strength, with running back Joe Mixon returning from a two game absence and every down linebacker Vontaze Burfict making his season debut, after beginning the season with a 4-game suspension. They lost tight end Tyler Eifert and backup running back Giovani Bernard to injury last week and center Billy Price remains out with a foot injury, but Mixon and Burfict are two of their most important players. The Bengals have been a pretty good team even without them, ranking 6th in first down rate differential at 6.60%. They’re worth a bet at as 6 point favorites at home over a banged up Miami team.

Cincinnati Bengals 30 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -6

Confidence: Medium

Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (1-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)

The Chargers are 2-2, but they’ve been a pretty underwhelming team. Their two wins have come against the Bills and 49ers, two of the worst teams in the league, and they won by just 2 points against the 49ers. In their other two games, they’ve lost by double digits to the Chiefs and Rams. Their offense has been great, ranking 5th in first down rate at 41.94%, but their defense has not nearly been the same without the injured Joey Bosa, ranking 28th in first down rate allowed at 41.87%.

The Chargers also don’t have much homefield advantage, as they barely have any fans in Los Angeles. With the Raiders, a former Los Angeles team, in town this week, I expect the crowd to be primarily Raiders fans. The Raiders are not a good team either and they’re in a tough spot with a trip to London on deck. Teams are 15-23 ATS all-time before a trip to London. They should be able to keep it within the 5, but I can’t take them with any confidence.

Los Angeles Chargers 31 Oakland Raiders 27

Pick against the spread: Oakland +5

Confidence: None

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (2-1-1) at Detroit Lions (1-3)

A couple weeks ago, the Packers were 3 point favorites in Washington and I picked the Redskins to pull the upset, which they ended up doing by the final score of 31-17. The Packers are road favorites again this week in Detroit, but there are several differences in this game. Aaron Rodgers is healthier, getting in a full week of practice this week. The Packers aren’t coming off of a 70 minute tie with the Vikings like they were a couple weeks ago. The Packers are also facing a much easier opponent. While the Redskins are an underrated team that can compete for a playoff spot in the tough NFC, the Lions are just 1-3 and have not played well against playoff caliber opponents in recent years, going 1-11 against eventual playoff teams in 2016-2017 combined.

The Lions did beat the Patriots in Detroit a couple weeks ago, but the Patriots were not at 100% with defensive end Trey Flowers and safety Patrick Chung out with injury and the way the Lions have played in the rest of their games suggests that game against New England will look like an outlier on their schedule when all is said and done this season. The Lions are a pretty mediocre team overall, primarily due to a terrible defense. They’re also missing arguably their best offensive lineman, right guard TJ Lang, with a concussion, which is a big blow to this offense. Despite that, the Packers are only 1 point favorites in this game, down from 3 in the Washington game. We’re getting good line value with them this week and they’re worth a bet.

Green Bay Packers 33 Detroit Lions 27

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -1

Confidence: Medium

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (3-1) at Buffalo Bills (1-3)

The Titans pulled off an upset win over the Eagles in overtime last week, but they are not nearly in as good of a spot this week. Last week, they only had this easy game against the Bills on deck, while the Eagles had an NFC Championship rematch with the Vikings on deck. This week, the Titans have a much tougher game at home against the Ravens up next. The Titans are 1 point home underdogs in that game on the early line and road favorites tend to struggle before being home underdogs, going 20-40 ATS since 2012.

I know it’s only one point and that line could easily change, but the logic still makes sense. Sandwiched in between a big overtime win over the defending Super Bowl champions and another big game against a possible division winner, the Titans could overlook the Bills a little bit. We’ve also lost a lot of line value with the Titans as a result of their win last week, with this line moving from 3 to 5.5 in favor of the Titans.

All of that being said, I’m still taking the Titans in this one. The Bills are arguably the worst team in the NFL and should only be picked unless you’re getting great line value with them, which is not the case this week, even with the line movement. The Titans are a solid team now that they’re healthy, with quarterback Marcus Mariota and the stud offensive tackle duo Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin returning from injury in recent weeks, and could easily beat the Bills by a touchdown or more even if they don’t play their best game on the road.

Tennessee Titans 20 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -5.5

Confidence: None

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-2-1)

This line was Baltimore -1 a week ago, but it has since shifted to Baltimore -3, a fairly significant line movement, considering about 1 out of 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. That’s because the Ravens won in Pittsburgh last week, but the Steelers have been an underwhelming team all year and were not nearly as good as their record last season either. Just 5 of their 14 wins over the past 2 seasons have come by more than 7 points, including just 2 since the midpoint of last season, a span of 13 games.

The Ravens are overrated coming off of that win, as many now regard them as a contender in the AFC. They are 3-1, but have yet to beat a top level team and most of their wins last season came against backup quarterbacks. They get cornerback Jimmy Smith back from suspension this week, but key defensive lineman Michael Pierce is highly questionable as he continues to deal with a foot injury he suffered a few weeks ago.

The Ravens a solid team, but they shouldn’t be favored by a field goal on the road against a quality Browns team. The Browns lost last week in Oakland, but they basically had a win taken off the board by an overturned first down that did not look conclusive. If not for that and some blunders in the kicking game early in the season, the Browns could actually be 4-0 right now or at least 3-1. They continue to be underrated because they’re the Browns, but they’re much better quarterbacked this season and have a good chance to win this one straight up at home.

Cleveland Browns 19 Baltimore Ravens 17 Upset Pick +145

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3

Confidence: Medium

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (1-2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)

This game is a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship, with the Vikings returning to Philadelphia, where they lost 38-7 last year. The common narrative is that both teams have disappointed since then and that seems to be reflected in this line, as the Eagles are just 3 point favorites at home, suggesting that these two teams are about even, but the Eagles are much better positioned coming into this game.

The Vikings rank 23rd in first down rate differential at -2.15%, while the Eagles rank 7th at +2.95%. The Vikings’ secondary has surprisingly struggled and is now without starting cornerback Trae Wayne with a concussion, while their defensive line is not nearly the same with Everson Griffen out. A defense that suffered next to no injuries last season is showing it’s cracks. On offense, their passing game has been potent, but they’ve struggled to run the ball with Dalvin Cook in and out of the lineup with injuries and an offensive line that struggles to block.

The Eagles, meanwhile, haven’t played quite as well as they did last year, but Carson Wentz looks great in his return, which is the most important thing, now going into his 3rd straight start, and they could easily be 3-1 right now, after an overtime loss in Tennessee last week. If the Eagles were 3-1 right now, I think they’d be favored by at least 4.5 points, probably 6 points in this game. Even in a loss, the Eagles played well on the road against a solid team.

The Eagles are not fully healthy with running back Darren Sproles, defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan, safety Rodney McLeod, and defensive end Derek Barnett out, but they weren’t fully healthy last year either. They’ve also gotten running back Jay Ajayi and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery back from injury and overall still have one of the best rosters in the NFL. The Vikings are a solid team, but I have this line calculated at Philadelphia -7.5, so we’re getting great line value with the Eagles this week. My one concern with the Eagles is that they have to play the Giants again in 4 days on Thursday Night Football, but this is a much bigger game for them. Without another obvious choice this week, the Eagles are my Pick of the Week.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Minnesota Vikings 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at Houston Texans (1-3)

The Texans picked up their first win of the season last win in Indianapolis, but they’ve still gotten off to a disappointing start to their season. Expected to be Super Bowl contenders, the Texans are just 1-3 with their only win coming in overtime against a team that’s 1-4. The Texans have been better than their record and Deshaun Watson has continued to play at a high level in his 2nd season in the league, but the Texans have struggled to pass protect and to run the ball and their defense has been underwhelming.

This line suggests the Texans are a little bit better than the Cowboys, but I think that’s backwards. The Cowboys probably aren’t going to make the playoffs in the loaded NFC, but they’re not a bad team either. They’re without Sean Lee with injury, but young linebackers Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith have played well in his absence and they get their top interior pass rusher David Irving back from suspension this week.

The Cowboys have also been a good road team in recent years, going 36-30 on the road since 2010 (+0.09 points per game), while going just 34-34 at home (+1.19 points per game). The Cowboys have a national fanbase that typically fills road stadiums pretty well and I would expect a lot of Cowboys fans at this game in Houston. I would only give the Texans about a 1-1.5 points for homefield advantage this week rather than the typical 3, so I have this line calculated at even. The Cowboys are worth a play at +3.5 and have a good chance to win straight up.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Houston Texans 23 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (0-4) at San Francisco 49ers (1-3)

A week ago, this line favored the 49ers at home by 2.5, but the line shifted to 4 this week. That might not look like much, but only 4% of games are decided by 2 points or fewer, as opposed to 24% of games decided by 4 points or fewer. That line movement is likely because the 49ers did not look as bad as expected in their first game with backup quarterback CJ Beathard in the lineup, losing by 2 in Los Angeles to the Chargers as 10.5 point underdogs. I think that’s an overreaction. The Chargers’ defense has been terrible this season without Joey Bosa, so that’s not really that impressive and the Cardinals easily could have won their first game of the season against the Seahawks last week if they hadn’t missed two makeable field goals.

Without Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers have arguably the weakest roster in the NFL and Garoppolo isn’t their only injury, with left tackle Joe Staley and top cornerback Richard Sherman both looking like gametime decisions. The Cardinals aren’t much better, but they have more upside with rookie quarterback Josh Rosen making his 2nd career start and this line suggests that the 49ers are better. I have this line calculated at San Francisco -1, so we’re getting significant line value with the visitors. They’re worth a bet.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Arizona Cardinals 23

Pick against the spread: Arizona +4

Confidence: Medium