2013 Fantasy Football Preseason

Tennessee Titans 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Titans, Uncategorized

QB Jake Locker (Tennessee)

Locker still has upside and he’s not proven either way with just 11 starts under his belt, but I didn’t think he’d become a franchise quarterback coming out of Washington and the Titans have not seemed confident in him this off-season, saying that a “major goal” is preventing Locker from “feeling overwhelmed.” The Titans have added Ryan Fitzpatrick, a proven backup caliber talent, behind him this off-season, to replace Hasselbeck and he could see multiple starts, especially if Locker gets hurt again. Even if he does play all 16 games, he’s an inconsistent QB2 at best, though his rushing ability does give you added value.

Projection: 3500 passing yards 19 touchdowns 16 interceptions 400 rushing yards 2 rushing touchdowns (236 pts standard, 274 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Chris Johnson (Tennessee)

An improved offensive line has to be music to Chris Johnson’s ears because of how reliant on a good offensive line he is. He’s incredibly explosive through holes, but when there aren’t holes, he doesn’t do a lot to help himself, frequently dancing around in the backfield, and getting little after contact. It’s why he has such good games against bad run defenses and bad games against good run defenses. He’s as good as anyone in the NFL when the hole is there though so he could have a very good season. He could see fewer carries, but only slightly with Shonn Greene coming in. Unless he steals a bunch of touchdowns, he won’t hurt Johnson’s production too much. Johnson is also active in the passing game, catching 230 passes in 5 years and he’s missed just 1 game in his career.

Projection: 250 carries for 1200 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 44 catches for 340 receiving yards (196 pts standard, 240 pts PPR)

RB Shonn Greene (Tennessee)

Greene will serve as primarily a backup and change of pace short yardage back. He is a marginal runner with minimal explosiveness, but he does fit his new role well, even if it was an overpay to give him 10 million over 3 years to serve in that role. He’ll get the goal line carries, but there won’t be a lot of those in Tennessee’s offense. He’ll need an injury to Chris Johnson to be fantasy relevant and should only be considered a handcuff. Johnson has missed just 1 game in his career.

Projection: 110 carries for 460 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 13 catches for 80 receiving yards (84 pts standard, 97 pts PPR)

WR Kenny Britt (Tennessee)

8/27/13: I liked Kenny Britt as a sleeper because he was getting through the off-season without any off the field incidents or any injury problems. However, he’s going to miss the Titans’ final pre-season game with recurring knee problems and has reportedly had problems with swelling for a while. He might just never get healthy enough to make good on his talent. He’s still a nice sleeper, but he’s only a WR4 or WR5.

Before tearing his ACL early in the 2011 season, Britt caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns over his last 14 full games, despite inconsistent, at best, quarterback play. He struggled in 2012 with injury and off the field problems, catching just 45 passes for 589 yards and 4 touchdowns, but now he’s a year removed any off the field incidents and another year removed from that torn ACL. He’s had a great off-season and he’s still a former 1st round pick going into his age 25 season. There’s upside with him at his current ADP in the 8th or 9th round.

Projection: 55 catches for 880 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns (124 pts standard, 179 pts PPR)

WR Kendall Wright (Tennessee)

Wright caught 64 passes for 626 yards and 4 touchdowns as a 1st round rookie last year, which is above the average for a 1st round rookie. He should be better this year now that he’s not a rookie, but it might take until his 3rd year for him to truly breakout. He’ll battle with Kenny Britt and Nate Washington for playing time in an uncertain wide receiver trio and I think he’s the 2nd most talented player in that group. There’s upside with him, but he could end up being just a secondary receiver in a subpar passing offense.

Projection: 55 catches for 740 receiving yards 4 touchdowns (98 pts standard, 153 pts PPR)

WR Nate Washington (Tennessee)

8/27/13: With Kenny Britt remaining an injury risk, Nate Washington gets a stock up. He’s been Jake Locker’s preferred target this pre-season, as he was last season, but there’s not a lot of upside with him. He’s not the talent Britt can be when healthy and he’s unlikely to exceed last year’s 46/746/4 line by much in this receiving corps with the Titans’ quarterback situation.

Projection: 51 catches for 770 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns (107 pts standard, 158 pts PPR)

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Seattle Seahawks 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Russell Wilson (Seattle)

In the 2nd half of last season, Wilson completed 123 of 183 passes for 1652 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, rushing for 361 yards and 4 touchdowns on 58 attempts. That’s 3304 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, with 722 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns on 116 attempts over a 16 game season. He won’t match those numbers, because that would be absurd, a 120.3 QB rating with plus rushing ability, but he should surpass his rookie numbers and be a solid QB1.

Projection: 3300 passing yards 27 touchdowns 8 interceptions 550 rushing yards 6 touchdowns (315 pts standard, 369 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Marshawn Lynch (Seattle)

Marshawn Lynch has completely revitalized his career in Seattle. He struggled in his first season in Seattle, with the exception of the beast mode run in the post-season against the Saints, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, but in 2011, he averaged 4.2 yards per carry on 285 carries with 12 touchdowns. In 2012, he improved that to 5.0 yards per carry on 315 carries with another 11 touchdowns as Russell Wilson’s arm and rushing ability took the defense’s attention off of Lynch. His only real flaw is he’s caught just 51 passes in the last 2 seasons. I don’t see why Lynch can’t do something similar again in 2013, though he may see slightly fewer carries heading into his age 27 season as the Seahawks used a 2nd round pick on a running back in Christine Michael.

Projection: 280 carries for 1320 rushing yards 11 total touchdowns 25 catches for 190 receiving yards (217 pts standard, 242 pts PPR)

WR Golden Tate (Seattle)

7/30/13: Harvin is out for most of the season. Rice’s knee remains a problem. That opens the door for Golden Tate to not only enter back into the starting lineup, but for him to probably lead this team in receiving. He had 25 catches for 433 yards and 4 touchdowns in his final 8 games last season and is the Seattle receiver to own in fantasy.

Golden Tate also had a very solid year last year, as the 2010 2nd round pick broke out in his 3rd season in the league the way so many receivers do. Again, the stats didn’t show it as he caught just 45 passes for 688 yards and 7 touchdowns, but he did that on just 378 routes run, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 24th ranked wide receiver overall. However, with Harvin coming in, like with Rice, the smart money is on his production going down as he’ll be the 3rd receiver. The Seahawks ranked 26th in the NFL in 3-wide receiver sets last season, which shouldn’t significantly go up this season. His best shot at statistical and fantasy relevance is a Rice or Harvin injury, though that’s not unlikely at all.

Projection: 55 catches for 800 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (122 pts standard, 177 pts PPR)

WR Sidney Rice (Seattle)

7/30/13: The good news for Rice is that Harvin is out for most of the season, so he won’t eat into his targets. However, Rice is also getting treatment on his knee in Switzerland. He isn’t expected to miss any games, but it’s not a good sign for a player who has topped 13 games in a season just twice in his career an has missed 23 games in the last 6 seasons. It’s just a reminder than Rice is unlikely to match last season’s numbers. I’d rather have Golden Tate.

Rice played all 16 games for the 2nd time in his 6 year career last season and, while you wouldn’t know it from his stats, he played very well. He caught just 50 passes for 748 yards and 7 touchdowns, but he did that on 422 routes run (includes sacks). If he had been on a more pass heavy team like he was in 2009, his breakout season when he ran 547 routes for Brett Favre, he would have had 65 catches for 970 yards and 9 touchdowns. He’s a very solid #2 receiver, but with Harvin coming in and his history of injury problems (23 games missed in 6 seasons), the smart money is on him not matching even the 50 catches for 748 yards and 7 touchdowns he had last season.

Projection: 44 catches for 700 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (106 pts standard, 150 pts PPR)

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St. Louis 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Sam Bradford (St. Louis)

After an ankle injury limited to 10 games in his 2nd season in the league in 2011, Bradford bounced back from in his 3rd year in the league, playing all 16 games again and improving on his rookie numbers by throwing for 3702 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. With the addition of Jake Long, Tavon Austin, and Jared Cook around him, he looks poised to exceed all of those career highs in his 4th year in the league. There’s a lot of uncertainty with him, but he’s a high upside QB2.

Projection: 3850 passing yards 22 touchdowns 12 interceptions 100 rushing yards 1 touchdown (234 pts standard, 278 pts 6 pt td league)

RB Daryl Richardson (St. Louis)

8/20/13: Daryl Richardson has been named the starting running back of the St. Louis Rams. He shouldn’t feel too comfortable as Isaiah Pead and/or Zac Stacy could both steal carries and even starts from him this season, but he gets moved up. Steven Jackson’s primary running back, Richardson rushed for 475 yards on 95 carries and also caught 24 passes for 163 yards. He’s a solid bet to go over 200 touches. Pead will be the change of pace back. There’s still an opportunity for Zac Stacy to eventually become a starter at some point this season if the unproven players above him on the depth chart don’t impress, but he’s not really worth drafting. He might be a nice late season waiver wire pickup if anything.

The Rams have a 3 way battle for the starting running back job and all 3 should see carries. You shouldn’t use a high pick on any of them unless one starts to run away with the job. They’re all draftable though. I consider Richardson the favorite. He was Jackson’s primary backup last season, rushing for 475 yards on 98 carries, while contributing 24 catches for 163 yards. The 7th round rookie leapfrogged 2nd round rookie Isaiah Pead on the depth chart for that job.

Projection: 180 carries for 790 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 35 catches for 250 receiving yards (140 pts standard, 175 pts PPR)

RB Isaiah Pead (St. Louis)

Pead is my 3rd favorite running back in St. Louis’ backfield. He’s draftable, but he had just 10 carries as a rookie. The 2nd rounder has talent and I’m not going to write him off or anything, but it’s certainly been a disappointing start to the career of a player who I thought was overdrafted (he’s a change of pace/passing catching back/return man).

Projection: 100 carries for 430 rushing yards 3 total touchdowns 18 catches for 130 receiving yards (74 pts standard, 92 pts PPR)

WR Chris Givens (St. Louis)

I think Givens will actually lead this receiving corps in yardage. As a mere rookie, Givens led the Rams’ nondescript receiving corps with 698 yards and caught 42 passes and 3 touchdowns. In his 2nd year in the league, he should be able to improve on them as he’s another year matured and another year more comfortable with the offense and Sam Bradford, especially since he figures to play more snaps. He averaged 1.90 yards per route run, 25th in the league out of 82 eligible wide receivers. This year, with Brandon Gibson and the oft injured Danny Amendola gone, Givens is by far the team’s leading returning receiver. Unlike the new batch of receivers, he has a year of experience in the offense and with Sam Bradford.

Projection: 56 catches for 820 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns  (112 pts standard, 168 pts PPR)

WR Tavon Austin (St. Louis)

Tavon Austin is overrated in fantasy circles. He’s just a rookie. Since 2005, 28 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 40 catches for 557 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Austin will do some nice things as a rookie and they’ll line him up in the backfield on occasion to get him his touches, but I think he’s at least a year away from being the type of player a lot of people think he already is. He might not even start as a rookie, focusing on the slot

Projection: 39 catches for 650 receiving yards and 5 total touchdowns, 20 carries for 150 rushing yards (110 pts standard, 149 pts PPR)

TE Jared Cook (St. Louis)

Jared Cook was underutilized in Tennessee and put up good per snap numbers as a receiver despite never really having great quarterback play. He has 1718 career receiving yards on 1057 career routes run, a rate of 1.63 yards per route run. For comparison, Owen Daniels had 1.63 yards per route run this season, good for 11th in the NFL. However, he doesn’t block, which is a big part of the reason why he was only a part-time player in Tennessee and he’s still relatively unproven. The Rams are paying a lot of money to find out if he can be an elite tight end in the right situation. They’ll give him every opportunity to live up to his contract, but I don’t think he will.

Projection: 45 catches for 700 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns (100 pts standard, 145 pts PPR)

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New York Giants 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Eli Manning (NY Giants)

Eli threw for 4933 yards in 2011, but other than that has never gone over 4021. He proved that 2011 was a fluke by throwing for just 3948 yards in 2012. It’s not that he’s a bad quarterback, but the Giants prefer a balanced attack. I do expect him to go over those 4021 yards this season because he’s got a loaded receiving corps with Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Myers, and Reuben Randle.

Projection: 4200 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (263 pts standard, 323 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB David Wilson (NY Giants)

8/29/13: I was already considering moving Wilson up because he was taking some of the goal line carries away from Andre Brown and because he was having an amazing pre-season, averaging 7.5 yards per carry. However, Andre Brown is out indefinitely with a fractured ankle and might miss the entire season. It’s the same leg he fractured last season. He’s not draftable any more, while Wilson has minimal competition for carries and is as close to being a true feature back as you can be. There’s RB1 upside here. The Giants have averaged 16.6 rushing touchdowns per season since 2004. The last time a Giants’ starting running back was also the goal line back, he scored 15 times, Tiki Barber in 2004, before Brandon Jacobs and Andre Brown. Brandon Jacobs scored 15 times in 2008 despite splitting carries. Tom Coughlin runs on the goal line.

Wilson showed a lot of explosiveness as a rookie, especially on special teams, but he only got 71 carries. That should be closer to 200 this season. However, Andre Brown will continue to steal carries from him, especially around the goal line. The coaching staff doesn’t 100% trust Wilson get and Brown is the better short yardage and passing down back.

Projection: 280 carries for 1260 rushing yards 12 total touchdowns 28 catches for 200 rushing yards (218 pts standard, 246 pts PPR)

WR Victor Cruz (NY Giants)

Cruz didn’t match the 82 catches for 1536 yards and 9 touchdowns he had in 2011, but it would have been unreasonable to expect him to do that. He still caught 86 passes for 1092 yards and 10 touchdowns and he could do even better than that this season. His one issue last season was his 12 drops.

Projection: 84 catches for 1170 receiving yards 9 touchdowns (171 pts standard, 255 pts PPR)

WR Hakeem Nicks (NY Giants)

Nicks essentially missed 4 games last season and was limited in others, catching just 53 passes for a career low 692 yards and 3 touchdowns. However, remember, he averaged 78 catches for 1122 yards and 9 touchdowns per season in 2010 and 2011 despite missing 4 combined games in those 2 seasons. He’s never played a full 16 game set and I wouldn’t expect that to change this season, but I like his chances to get back over 1000 yards and give the Giants two 1000 yard receivers.

Projection: 71 catches for 1020 receiving yards 8 touchdowns (150 pts standard, 221 pts PPR)

TE Brandon Myers (NY Giants)

Giants tight ends always seem to be productive in the passing game, regardless of who they are. Tight ends coach Mike Pope is a big part of the reason for this, as is the offensive system and Eli Manning’s tendency to throw to the tight end. Myers caught 79 passes for 804 yards and 4 touchdowns on just 101 targets last season with Carson Palmer throwing him the ball. He could match that, or even exceed that.

Projection: 74 catches for 790 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (109 pts standard, 183 pts PPR)

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Washington Redskins 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Robert Griffin (Washington)

Griffin is expected to be ready for week 1 of this season, but he has a history of knee problems so it’s unclear if he’ll be able to stay healthy for all 16 games and at what percent of his peak ability he’ll be able to play. They’re already talking about limiting his carries, which is such a big part of his game. He also shouldn’t be expected to maintain the 1.3% interception rate he had last season, even if he is healthy.

Projection: 3150 passing yards 19 passing touchdowns 9 interceptions 550 rushing yards 5 rushing touchdowns (269 pts standard, 307 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Alfred Morris (Washington)

It can be easy to forget because of what Robert Griffin did, but RG3 wasn’t the Redskins’ only rookie sensation. 6th round rookie Alfred Morris surprisingly won the starting job week 1 and did his best Terrell Davis impression for the rest of the season, rushing for 1613 yards and 13 touchdowns on 335 attempts. However, Morris owes a lot of his success to Griffin taking the attention off of him. Defenses had to focus on Griffin’s arm strength and running ability and, as a result, Morris had a lot of running room in their read option offense. Credit Morris for his vision, intelligence, and for wasting no movement, but it’s definitely worth noting that Morris rushed for just 3.2 yards per carry without Griffin against Cleveland. Morris’ running success will largely be tied to Griffin’s success and Morris also provides very little on passing downs, catching just 11 passes for 77 yards.

Projection: 300 carries for 1320 rushing yards 11 total touchdowns 10 catches for 70 yards (205 pts standard, 215 pts PPR)

WR Pierre Garcon (Washington)

Despite playing through injuries, Garcon had 633 yards on 215 routes run last season, good for 2.94 yards per route run, 2nd in the NFL among eligible wide receivers behind Andre Johnson. He was targeted 63 times, giving him a very impressive yard per target rate of over 10 per and with 63 targets on 215 routes run, he was by far Robert Griffin’s favorite target to throw to when he was on the field. Griffin was also very efficient when throwing to him, completing 69.8% of his passes for 10.0 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception, a QB rating of 116.7, 14th in the NFL among eligible wide receivers. It’s clear that Garcon has a ton of upside in his role in Washington’s offense. As long as he and Griffin can stay healthy, they he can put up big numbers. It’s a risk, but there’s a ton of upside here.

Projection: 70 catches for 1100 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (152 pts standard, 222 pts PPR)

TE Fred Davis (Washington)

Tight end Fred Davis went down with a season ending torn Achilles early in their 7th game of the season. He was brought back on a one year prove it deal that could pay dividends if he’s healthy. He’s only played in 18 full games over the past 2 seasons thanks to injury and suspension, but he has caught 82 passes for 1110 yards and 3 touchdowns in those 18 games, despite playing 12 of them with Rex Grossman as his quarterback. We’ll see how he bounces back after his injury, but he has great natural receiving ability.

Projection: 55 catches for 750 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns (99 pts standard, 154 pts PPR)

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Philadelphia Eagles 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Michael Vick (Philadelphia)

8/20/13: Michael Vick has been named the starter for the Eagles. The good news is he’ll have a better supporting cast than he did last season unless injuries strike at the same level they did last season and he has a new Head Coach in Chip Kelly who wants him to run more. Vick did look great in the pre-season in Kelly’s system and he has that Kelly has made him fall in love with the game again. That’s the good news.

The bad news is he’s almost a lock to miss 3-4 games with injury and I wouldn’t rule out him getting benched for Nick Foles or Matt Barkley later in the season, especially if the team is out of playoff contention. He’s averaged 11.8 starts per season over the last 4 years, starting 10 last season, and I think going into his age 33 season, the over/under for starts for him should be around 10.5. On top of that, he’s shown declining physical abilities as a result of age and his injury history and he’s more reliant on his physical abilities than maybe any quarterback in recent history. He was never going to age well. I think he’ll produce like a QB2 and it’s best to go with someone more reliable in a backup quarterback.

Projection: 2300 passing yards, 14 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 450 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (191 pts standard, 219 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia)

McCoy had a very solid stretch from 2010-2011, missing just 2 games and rushing for 2389 yards and 24 touchdowns on 480 carries, with 126 catches for 907 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. He looked like one of the best and most complete backs in the NFL. However, in 2012, he struggled along with the rest of the Eagles’ offense, rushing for just 840 yards on 200 carries, catching 54 passes for 373 yards and scoring just 5 total times, only twice on the ground. He also missed 4 games with injury. He should bounce back this year.

Projection: 250 carries for 1150 rushing yards 10 total touchdowns 58 catches for 470 yards (222 pts standard, 280 pts PPR)

RB Bryce Brown (Philadelphia)

Andy Reid and his pass heavy offense are gone and Chip Kelly figures to have his offense run the ball a lot. Also, Kelly favors a two back approach much more than Reid, who preferred to have one back do everything. Brown will get plenty of action as the #2 back behind LeSean McCoy. He rushed for 564 yards and 4 touchdowns on 115 carries and caught 13 passes for 56 yards last season.

Projection: 120 carries for 560 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 15 catches for 90 yards (95 pts standard, 110 pts PPR)

WR DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia)

7/28/13: With Maclin going down for the season, DeSean Jackson should see an increase in targets. He’s currently the 32nd wide receiver off the board on average, going in the 7th or 8th round range, but he should be his team’s leading receiver by far and he’ll give you added value on the ground as well. He’s a nice value.

Jackson has rushed just 54 times in his career in 5 seasons, going for 371 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he could see that number increase this season as he’s expected to be used somewhat in that DeAnthony Thomas role. He won’t get a ton of carries, but the Eagles will do a lot of things to get the ball in his hands because of his speed. He’ll probably also see more short throws and screens than he normally does, as they attempt to get him the ball in space, and could easily surpass his career high 62 receptions, though he probably won’t reach his career 17.5 yards per reception average.

Projection: 67 catches for 1000 receiving yards 8 total touchdowns 25 carries for 170 rushing yards (165 pts standard, 232 pts PPR)

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Dallas Cowboys 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Tony Romo (Dallas)

In his career, Romo has completed 64.7% of his passes for an average of 7.9 YPA and 177 touchdowns to 91 interceptions, good for a career QB rating of 95.6, 5th highest all-time behind Aaron Rodgers, Steve Young, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning. The 19 interceptions he threw last season, which led the league, tied a career high and was the same amount he threw in his last two full seasons combined. The Cowboys might not throw 658 times in 2012, which was 3rd most in the NFL and 90 more attempts than any Cowboy team in the Tony Romo era. However, this is more and more becoming a passing league and while they’d probably prefer not to have to pass that many times in 2013, they’ll still be a pass heavy team that should throw the ball at least 600 times.

Projection: 4450 passing yards for 29 touchdowns 15 interceptions 50 rushing yards 1 touchdown (275 pts standard, 333 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB DeMarco Murray (Dallas)

DeMarco Murray might be a little overrated off of the 25 carry/253 yard performance against St. Louis in his first NFL start as a 3rd round rookie in 2011. That was a completely hapless Rams defense at the time and if you take out that game, he’s averaged just 4.4 yards per carry in his career. Last season, he averaged 4.1 yards per carry and since his first 4 starts, he’s managed just 866 yards on 225 carries, a 3.8 YPC clip. He’s not as proven as people think. He’s also been hampered by numerous injuries, missing the end of his rookie season in 2011 and being limited to 161 carries in 2012. Injuries can not only keep a running back off the field, but also sap his explosiveness and Murray has injury issues dating back to his collegiate days at Oklahoma. There’s a reason he fell to the 3rd round.

Projection: 200 carries for 840 rushing yards and 7 total touchdowns 37 catches for 290 yards (155 pts, 192 pts PPR)

WR Dez Bryant (Dallas)

Bryant has always had all the talent in the world and, as is often the case with wide receivers, he finally put everything together in his 3rd year in the league in 2012, catching 92 passes for 1382 yards and 12 touchdowns and playing in all 16 games for the first time. He also closed 2012 incredibly well, catching 50 passes for 879 yards and 10 touchdowns in his final 8 games. This off-season has actually been his first without any sort of off the field distraction so he could be even better in 2013. He finally seems to have turned a corner.

Projection: 94 catches for 1440 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns (216 pts, 310 pts PPR)

WR Miles Austin (Dallas)

Miles Austin caught 66 passes for 943 yards and 6 touchdowns last season, rebounding from an injury plagued 2011 season. He might never produce the kind of numbers he had in 2009 and 2010, when he averaged 75 catches for 1181 yards and 9 touchdowns per season, because of Dez Bryant’s emergence and Jason Witten’s presence, and his final 8 game production from 2012 is concerning (25 catches for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns), but he’s only 29 and you can do a lot worse.

Projection: 55 catches for 840 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns (120 pts, 175 pts PPR)

TE Jason Witten (Dallas)

Witten is one of the most dependable players in the NFL regardless of position. He hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year in 2003, signing a waiver to play through a ruptured spleen week 1 of last season and his worst season since his rookie year was 2006, when he still caught 64 passes for 754 yards and 1 touchdowns. Since 2004, his 2nd season in the league, he’s averaged 86 catches for 956 yards and 5 touchdowns per season and only going into his age 31 season coming off a career high in catches, I see no reason why that wouldn’t continue.

Projection: 88 catches for 980 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns (128 pts, 216 pts PPR)

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay)

The Buccaneers are an incredibly inconsistent team. It’s no surprise they’re this inconsistent when their quarterback is this inconsistent. It wasn’t just last year. They went 3-13 in 2009, 10-6 in 2010, and then 4-12 in 2011 as Josh Freeman posted 10/18, 25/6, and 16/22 touchdown to interception ratios in those 3 seasons respectively. Last year, he started the year with a 5/4 TD/interception ratio in their first 4 games, then had a 16/3 ratio in their next 6, and then a 5/9 ratio on that 5 game losing streak, before having a decent game against Atlanta. In wins, he had a 97.6 QB rating, which is comparable to Tom Brady’s and Ben Roethlisberger’s. In losses, that rating was 71.4, which is comparable to Chad Henne and Mark Sanchez. He’s an inconsistent QB2, who might not keep his job all season. Look elsewhere.

Projection: 3650 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 200 rushing yards, 1 touchdown (224 pts standard, 268 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Doug Martin (Tampa Bay)

While Martin did catch 49 passes as a rookie, the most impressive thing he did, by far, is rush for 1454 yards and 11 touchdowns on 319 carries, emerging as a true, complete feature back from the word go. As is the case with all running backs, his ability to replicate that in 2013 is dependent on whether or not he stays healthy. He does have a history of injuries from his days at Boise State, but he was still an incredible find with the 31st pick of the 2012 NFL Draft, after the Buccaneers traded back into the first to grab him, jumping ahead of the Giants, who were ready to take him one spot later.

Projection: 300 carries for 1350 rushing yards 12 total touchdowns 50 catches for 450 rushing yards (252 pts standard, 302 pts PPR)

WR Vincent Jackson (Tampa Bay)

The Buccaneers signed Vincent Jackson to a 5-year 55.5 million dollar contract last off-season that appeared risky at the time. Jackson, who had previously held out 10 games because he wanted to get paid, appeared to just be chasing the money going to Tampa Bay and could have easily just coasted. He was also going into his age 29 season so he was on the downside of his prime and probably wouldn’t get any better. However, Jackson somehow turned in the best season of his career, catching 72 passes for 1384 yards and 8 touchdowns.

Projection: 65 catches for 1200 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (162 pts standard, 227 pts PPR)

WR Mike Williams (Tampa Bay)

Jackson’s presence reinvigorated Mike Williams, who no longer had to deal with opponent’s #1 cornerbacks. Williams himself also deserves credit for getting himself back into shape after a miserable 2nd season in the league in 2011. All of this led to the 2010 4th round pick totaling 63 catches for 996 yards and 9 touchdowns opposite Jackson. Williams was 4 yards away from giving the Buccaneers two 1000 yard receivers, something only Denver (Thomas/Decker), New Orleans (Colston/Moore), Atlanta (White/Jones), and Dallas (Bryant/Witten) could also say.

Projection: 65 catches for 1000 receiving yards 8 touchdowns (148 pts standard, 213 pts PPR)

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Atlanta Falcons 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Falcons, Uncategorized

QB Matt Ryan (Atlanta)

Dirk Koetter’s arrival in Atlanta led to Matt Ryan attempting a career high 615 passes last season, which led to a career high in completions (422), yards (4719), and touchdowns (32). He was also the most efficient he’s ever been on a per play basis, ranking 5th in the NFL with a 99.4 QB rating, a career high. Also a career high was his 68.6% completion percentage and his 7.7 yards per attempt were the 2nd highest of his career. While he did throw 14 interceptions, his interception rate of 2.3% was actually right in line with his career average. He could see inferior production this season as a result of a tougher schedule, though not a lot inferior.

Projection: 4500 passing yards 30 touchdowns 15 interceptions 100 rushing yards 1 touchdown (286 pts standard, 346 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Steven Jackson (Atlanta)

Steven Jackson can’t be worse than Michael Turner, but Falcons fans might not be getting the guy they’re expecting. He turns 30 in July and has 2395 career carries. He’s 26th all-time in rushing yards at 10,135, but the average top-25 all-time running back has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. And after players have their drop off, they average just 169 carries per season at 3.5 yards per carry and just 5 touchdowns, so they’re really a non-factor as a back. He should have one more good year in him, but there are no guarantees at this point in his career.

Projection: 200 carries for 860 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 30 catches for 250 rushing yards (159 pts standard, 189 pts PPR)

RB Jacquizz Rodgers (Atlanta)     

With Jackson coming in, it’s unclear what role Rodgers will have. Rodgers did well in 2012, catching 53 passes, to go with 94 carries, but Jackson is also a good pass catcher and unlike Turner will stay on the field in passing downs. Rodgers should go back to being a true backup and he’ll be insurance in case father time finally beats Jackson. Jackson doesn’t have a ton of explosive burst at this point in his career so Rodgers’ speed will serve well as a complement.

Projection: 110 carries for 480 rushing yards 3 total touchdowns 40 catches for 300 receiving yards (96 pts standard, 136 pts PPR)

WR Julio Jones (Atlanta)

Julio Jones is heading into his 3rd year in the league, a year when receivers tend to break out, as if a receiver who caught 79 passes for 1198 yards and 10 touchdowns in his age 23 season could break out any more. I expect him to be their leading receiver though.

Projection: 80 catches for 1240 receiving yards 10 touchdowns (184 pts standard, 264 pts PPR)

WR Roddy White (Atlanta)

Roddy White is heading into his age 32 season, so some statistical drop off is to be expected. He’s already noticeably less explosive than he was in his prime and he averaged just 3.6 yards average catch per catch last season. He’s much more of a possession receiver than anything else at this point in his career, though a very good one at that.

Projection: 85 catches for 1200 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (162 pts standard, 247 pts PPR)

TE Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta)

Tony Gonzalez, meanwhile, is even older, heading into his age 37 season and his 2.7 yards after catch per catch were even less than White’s. His mere 10.0 yards per catch also shows a lack of explosiveness and while he was a great possession receiver last year, he did have 13 fewer catches the year before and 23 fewer two years before that. I think it’s much more likely that his production falls off drastically than White’s.

Projection: 70 catches for 770 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (113 pts standard, 183 pts PPR)

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New Orleans Saints 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Saints, Uncategorized

QB Drew Brees (New Orleans)

There was concern about how Brees would do without Sean Payton last season, but he did fine, completing 63.0% of his passes for an average of 7.7 YPA, 43 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions, while leading the NFL’s #3 ranked scoring offense. He’s now thrown for 5000 yards in 3 of the last 5 seasons, including the past 2, the first quarterback in NFL history to do so. Since 2008, he’s completed 2114 of 3134 (67.5%) for 24730 yards (7.9 YPA), 190 touchdowns, 83 interceptions.

Projection: 5000 passing yards 39 touchdowns 16 interceptions 50 rushing yards 0 rushing touchdowns (329 pts standard, 407 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Mark Ingram (New Orleans)

Mark Ingram will once again be the lead back and hoping to get things together in his 3rd year, after going in the 1st round in 2011. He’s averaged just 3.9 yards per carry since and had just 278 carries, struggling through injuries. He could breakout this season though and the Saints seem confident in him, trading away their top insurance option in Chris Ivory.

Projection: 200 carries for 880 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 12 catches for 100 yards (146 pts standard, 158 pts PPR)

RB Darren Sproles (New Orleans)

Darren Sproles is essentially more of a slot receiver than a running back. He’s had 135 carries and 161 catches in the last 2 seasons and is a threat to score at any time, scoring 17 touchdowns. I don’t know why his role would change this season.

Projection: 60 carries for 300 yards 8 total touchdowns 77 catches for 670 receiving yards (145 pts standard, 222 pts PPR)

RB Pierre Thomas (New Orleans)

Pierre Thomas is the primary backup and has done a good job, rushing for 4.8 yards per carry in his career, though he’s maxed out at 147 carries. He’s also been a big part of the passing game as well, catching 188 passes in 66 games in the past 5 seasons.

Projection: 100 carries for 460 yards 4 total touchdowns 40 catches for 340 receiving yards (104 pts standard, 144 pts PPR)

WR Marques Colston (New Orleans)

Marques Colston gets a reputation for being injury prone and he has had a bunch of knee surgeries, but he’s only missed 10 games in 7 seasons and he’s been nothing if not reliable. With the exception of 2008 (when he played a career low 11 games), he’s caught 70 passes for 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns in every season of his career. Last season, he once again had big time production, catching 83 passes for 1132 yards and 10 touchdowns while not missing a game. He’s only 30 and he has great chemistry with Drew Brees so he should once again be Drew Brees’ top receiver.

Projection: 80 catches for 1070 receiving yards 8 touchdowns (155 pts standard, 235 pts PPR)

WR Lance Moore (New Orleans)

Lance Moore had 1000 yards last year, catching 65 passes for 1041 yards and 6 touchdowns. He’s an underrated receiver who has the talent to be an incredibly productive receiver when he has an opportunity and the starting job opposite Colston is all his, but he’s had a history of injuries, so that’s a concern.

Projection: 60 catches for 880 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (130 pts standard, 190 pts PPR)

TE Jimmy Graham (New Orleans)

Jimmy Graham was the Saints’ leading receiver in 2011, catching 99 passes for 1310 yards and 11 touchdowns, but injuries led to a league leading 15 drops in 2012 and he “only” caught 85 passes for 982 yards and 9 touchdowns in 15 games in 2012. He should get back over 1000 this season though.

Projection: 82 catches for 1020 receiving yards 9 touchdowns (156 pts standard, 238 pts PPR)

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