2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews

Kansas City Chiefs 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Alex Smith (Kansas City)

Over his time in Philadelphia, Andy Reid made basically every quarterback he had look better than they were, allowing the Eagles to ship off Kevin Kolb, AJ Feeley, and, eventually, Donovan McNabb for 2nd round picks, even though none of the three ever did anything of note for their new team. He also revitalized the careers and Jeff Garcia and Michael Vick, who both came to Philadelphia as backups on cheap one year deals. Reid should continue his fine work with Alex Smith, a great fit for Reid’s West Coast offense. Smith was not as good as he looked in San Francisco with Jim Harbaugh, but I don’t think you can say he’ll immediately regress to the borderline starter he was before Harbaugh. The Chiefs figure to pass the ball a lot under Andy Reid so Smith is an underrated QB2.

Projection: 3850 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 1 touchdown (226 pts standard, 268 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Jamaal Charles (Kansas City)

Jamaal Charles’ career 5.8 YPC is most all-time of backs with more than 500 career carries. Sure, he’s had just 784 carries in 5 seasons: but remember who he’s had as Head Coaches, Herm Edwards, Todd Haley, and Romeo Crennel. While Andy Reid hates to run the football, when he does, he’s faithful to one back and his playbook has enough passes to backs that Charles should be able to surpass his career high of 320 touches in a season. He’ll catch plenty of Alex Smith check downs and is a solid bet to catch 55-60 passes. He’ll also see more goal line touches, more consistent work, and more room to run on a team that can actually move the football through the air this season. He’s another year removed from that ACL tear and he’s the clear lead back. He was 5th in the NFL in yards from scrimmage last season and he’s my pick to lead the NFL in that category this season, as Brian Westbrook did under Reid in 2007.

Projection: 280 carries for 1540 rushing yards, 10 total touchdowns, 58 catches for 470 yards (261 pts standard, 319 pts PPR)

WR Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City)

Bowe caught just 59 passes for 801 yards and 3 touchdowns in 13 games in 2012, the 2nd worst season of his career, but that’s actually pretty impressive considering his quarterback play. Now he gets to play in a pass heavy offense under Andy Reid with arguably the best quarterback he’s ever played with (compared to Brodie Croyle, Damon Huard, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko, Kyle Orton, and Brady Quinn) and he’s a great fit for a West Coast offense. He’s quietly one of the better receivers in the NFL in Kansas City and the arrow is definitely pointing up for him. He could surpass his career highs of 86 catches (2008) and 1162 yards (2010), though the 15 touchdowns he caught in 2010 remain largely a fluke.

Projection: 88 catches for 1220 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns (170 pts standard, 258 pts PPR)

TE Travis Kelce (Kansas City)

8/28/13: Tony Moeaki is expected to be done for the season with a fractured shoulder, but Travis Kelce might have beaten him out for the pass catching job either way. Still, with Moeaki gone, there will be plenty of playing time for the talented rookie and Alex Smith loves throwing to underneath targets so he’s worth a late round flier. Few TE2s have more upside.

Projection: 50 catches for 600 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns (84 pts standard, 134 pts PPR)

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2013 Denver Broncos Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Peyton Manning (Denver)

It’s possible that the addition of Welker can lead to be even further improved Manning, but I don’t find it that likely that Manning will surpass the arguably 2nd best season of his career (at least in terms of QB rating) in what is his age 37 season. It’s more likely that regression to the mean and normal diminishing physical skills for a 37-year-old who has recently had a serious injury lead to an inferior 2013 as compared to 2012 for Manning. Sure, Manning’s mean is still one of the best in the game, but I don’t buy that he’ll be improved over last season just because of Wes Welker’s presence on the slot. Don’t buy too high, especially in a deep year for quarterbacks.

Projection: 4500 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 20 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (292 pts standard, 362 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Montee Ball (Denver)

8/27/13: A day after being benched, Ronnie Hillman was back working with the first team offense again today. John Fox said that the Broncos will be using a running back committee, as he usually does. John Fox hates rookies, so while Ball should lead the team in touches, I think it’s generally a situation to avoid in fantasy this season, at least for drafting purposes.

Ball is the most talented of the Broncos’ running back trio, but John Fox notoriously hates playing rookies, especially at the running back position. Peyton Manning also requires his backs to pass protect and he could very well have a say in who plays running back this season. Ball played his college ball at Wisconsin, which was not a pass heavy team, even when they had Russell Wilson in 2011, so he’s understandably raw in pass protection. Ball will probably still lead the team in carries, but he’s being overvalued at this point. There are much better RB options at his current ADP so let him be someone else’s problem.

Projection: 150 carries for 660 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 17 catches for 130 receiving yards (115 pts standard, 132 pts PPR)

RB Ronnie Hillman (Denver)

8/27/13: A day after being benched, Ronnie Hillman was back working with the first team offense again today. I still think he’s the 3rd most valuable fantasy back on this team, but it’s a situation to avoid entirely. Let someone else sort out this mess.

8/25/13: Ronnie Hilman has been a mess in the pre-season. I’d take Ball and Moreno over him. He’s barely worth a late round flier at this point.

Ronnie Hillman isn’t a rookie anymore, but the 2012 3rd round pick still is a young back and at sub-200 pounds, he doesn’t have the frame to carry the load or to hold up in pass protection. He was down as low as 175 pounds as a rookie. He’s best suited as a change of pace back, though he was working as the starter in Training Camp because, again, John Fox hates rookies. I’d rather have him at his current ADP in the 9th or 10th round than Ball at his current ADP in the 4th.

Projection: 100 carries for 450 rushing yards 3 total touchdowns 23 catches for 200 receiving yards (83 pts standard, 106 pts PPR)

RB Knowshon Moreno (Denver)

8/25/13: Originally, I thought it would be Ronnie Hillman to start the season for the Broncos, but he’s been a mess in the pre-season so it’s beginning to look like Moreno is going to be the early season back and passing down complement. Montee Ball will eventually take over the starting job, like he would have if Hillman were the guy and I do expect him to lead the team in carries, but John Fox hates playing rookies.

Projection: 120 carries for 500 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 23 catches for 190 receiving yards (93 pts standard, 116 pts PPR)

WR Demaryius Thomas (Denver)

Thomas also broke out in 2012, catching 94 passes for 1430 yards and 10 touchdowns. He might not reach those numbers again, but Welker’s presence won’t eat too much into his targets as he operates in a completely different part of the field, serving as the primary deep threat. Decline by Peyton Manning as he ages is more of a threat to Thomas than anything, but he remains a WR1.

Projection: 85 catches for 1300 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns (196 pts standard, 281 pts PPR)

WR Eric Decker (Denver)

After largely being a non-factor in his first 2 years in the league, the 2010 3rd round pick Decker caught 85 passes for 1064 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. However, Wes Welker will eat much more into his targets than Demaryius Thomas so I don’t expect him to reach those numbers again.

Projection: 70 catches for 900 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns (138 pts standard, 208 pts PPR)

WR Wes Welker (Denver)

You heard it from Welker himself: “If I have to catch 112 balls, that probably means we’re in trouble.” The Broncos will spread it around more than the Patriots did. The Denver Post projects 75 catches for him. He’s also going into his age 32 season and has never been a touchdown threat. Let him be someone else’s problem. He’ll be overvalued, especially in non-PPR leagues.

Projection: 82 catches for 900 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns (120 pts standard, 202 pts PPR)

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Jacksonville Jaguars 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville)

8/20/13: Blaine Gabbert has won the Jaguars’ starting quarterback job, but don’t draft him. He’s not very good and will likely cede multiple starts to Chad Henne, like he did last year. In 10 games last year, Gabbert threw for 1662 yards and 9 touchdowns, with 6 interceptions and 56 rushing yards. I wouldn’t bet on him doing much more than that this season.

Projection: 1800 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 70 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (105 pts standard, 125 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Maurice Jones Drew (Jacksonville)

MJD returns from an injury plagued season in which he played just 6 games and saw just 86 carries before going down with a foot injury. It’s possible he could bounce back this season, but he is going into his age 28 season and after all the work he had from 2009-2011 (1084 touches), it’s possible he’ll never be the same back again. He’s still suffering through lingering effects of that injury.

Projection: 250 carries for 1150 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 50 catches for 370 yards (200 pts standard, 250 pts PPR)

WR Cecil Shorts (Jacksonville)

Shorts averaged 2.31 yards per route run last season, 8th in the NFL behind Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Michael Crabtree, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Vincent Jackson, and AJ Green. In his 9 starts, he caught 47 passes for 774 yards and 5 touchdowns, which extrapolates to 84 catches for 1386 yards and 9 touchdowns over 16 games. He probably won’t reach those aforementioned extrapolated stats because defenses will key in on him more this year, but he has a very good chance to be Jacksonville’s first 1000 yard receiver since Jimmy Smith in 2005.

Projection: 70 catches for 1100 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (152 pts standard, 222 pts PPR)

WR Justin Blackmon (Jacksonville)

Blackmon had a good rookie year, with 64 catches for 865 yards and 5 touchdowns, as the 5th overall pick exceeded the average production for a 1st round rookie. However, he had over a quarter of his production in one game (a 7 catch, 231 yard performance against Houston) and he was, as you can imagine, very inconsistent. His 4 game suspension for substance abuse is a real concern, especially since he also has a DUI history and it will put a damper on his potential production this season. He could also find himself very much behind the 8-ball when he returns.

Projection: 48 catches for 640 receiving yards 4 touchdowns (88 pts standard, 136 pts PPR)

TE Marcedes Lewis (Jacksonville)

With Blackmon missing 4 games and their lack of depth at wide receiver, tight end Marcedes Lewis will be leaned on more in the passing game this season. Lewis was overpaid with a 5-year, 35 million dollar contract after an uncharacteristic 58/700/10 season in 2010, but he’s not a bad player. He’s a good blocker and his receiving numbers would be better if he had better quarterback play. Last season, he caught 52 passes for 540 yards and 4 touchdowns. He should see an increase in receiving production this season.

Projection: 50 catches for 600 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (90 pts standard, 140 pts PPR)

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Houston Texans 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Matt Schaub (Houston)

It’s hard to see Schaub playing much differently than he did last season, when he had 4008 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He remains a solid QB2, albeit one who has missed 16 games in 6 seasons as a starter.

Projection: 4000 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 20 rushing yards, 0 touchdowns (226 pts standard, 270 pts 6 pt leagues)

RB Arian Foster (Houston)

Arian Foster averaged a career low 4.1 yards per carry in 2012, thanks to the loss of two starting offensive linemen. His YPC has been trended down since he lost fullback Vonta Leach and he’s also had a lot of work over the past few years. he’s had 1115 regular season touches, plus another 128 post-season touches.

Last season, he led the NFL with 351 carries which is bad news for his 2013. Since 1988, only 4 of 24 running backs who led the league in carries surpassed their rushing yards total the following season. In that time period, backs who lead the league in carries have averaged 367.7 carries per season, rushed for 1620.4 yards, and scored 14.3 touchdowns. The following season, they averaged 266.0 carries per season, rushed for 1063.5 yards, and scored 8.9 touchdowns. Foster is already nursing a calf injury in Training Camp. He’s also seen his catches drop from 66 to 53 to 40 over the past 3 seasons. Let him be someone else’s problem.

Projection: 260 carries for 1040 rushing yards 11 total touchdowns 38 catches for 300 yards (200 pts standard, 238 pts PPR)

RB Ben Tate (Houston)

In the likely event that Foster struggles or gets hurt, it will open the door for Ben Tate. Tate struggled through injuries of his own in 2012, rushing for 279 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 65 carries, but in 2011, he rushed for 942 yards and 4 touchdowns on 175 carries. In the 8 games he had double digit carries, he managed 721 yards and 4 touchdowns on 133 carries. He’s a more than capable #2 back and fill in starter when necessary, assuming he doesn’t get hurt himself. He’s played just 26 of a possible 48 games in his first 3 seasons in the NFL thanks to various injuries. Still, he’s a very, very valuable handcuff.

Projection: 160 carries for 720 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 16 catches for 110 receiving yards (113 pts standard, 129 pts PPR)

WR Andre Johnson (Houston)

The Texans got a vintage year from Andre Johnson in 2012, as he caught 112 passes for 1598 yards and 4 touchdowns, leading the NFL in yards per route run with 3.01 and ranking 2nd in the NFL in yards overall behind Calvin Johnson (who played over 200 more pass snaps). Those yards were actually a career high and those catches were 2nd in his career, pretty impressive considering he has 818 catches for 11,254 yards over 10 seasons. It was also unexpected considering he was 31 years old and coming off a season in which he played in just 7 games with injury. However, Johnson has still missed 12 games in the last 3 seasons and is going into his age 32 season. The concerns about him before last season had merit. They just didn’t prove to be an issue, but they could be this season. He’s also never had double digit touchdowns and scored just 4 times last season.

Projection: 91 catches for 1300 receiving yards 7 total touchdowns (172 pts standard, 263 pts PPR)

WR DeAndre Hopkins (Houston)

Hopkins has a bright future, but he’s just a rookie. Since 2005, 28 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 40 catches for 557 yards and 3 touchdowns per season as rookies. He’s not a serious threat to eat much into Johnson’s targets or production. He’ll surpass the 41 catches for 518 yards and 2 touchdowns that Kevin Walter had last year though.

Projection: 50 catches for 650 receiving yards 5 total touchdowns (95 pts standard, 145 pts PPR)

TE Owen Daniels (Houston)

Owen Daniels is a very good pass catching tight end when he’s on the field and he’s only missed 2 games of the past 2 seasons, after missing 13 in the previous 2. In a weaker year for tight ends, he’s offers good value. He should be around the 62 catches for 716 yards and 5 touchdowns he had last season.

Projection: 65 catches for 740 receiving yards 5 total touchdowns (104 pts standard, 169 pts PPR)

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Indianapolis Colts 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Andrew Luck (Indianapolis)

Andrew Luck is an overrated quarterback in real life, but he was great in fantasy football last season and he should be better in both reality and fantasy next season. Pep Hamilton is coming over from Stanford to reunite with Luck as his offensive coordinator and will be installing an offense that fits his skill set better. He’ll also be better protected and another year more experienced. The Colts should still throw about 600 times, even with the team using more two-tight end sets, because both of their tight ends are comfortable pass catching, and Luck should be more efficient on those 600 throws. He also adds added value on the ground

Projection: 4350 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 270 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns (291 pts standard, 343 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Ahmad Bradshaw (Indianapolis)

8/16/13: Chuck Pagano called Bradshaw an every down back. He’ll be their lead back, with Ballard serving as a backup. The only concern is injuries.

Bradshaw was cut by the Giants this off-season going into just his age 27 season because they grew tired of his laundry list of injury problems. It took him a while to get picked up this off-season, but he’s one of the toughest running backs in the NFL, missing just 7 games in 4 years despite all the injury problems.He’s rushed for 3687 yards and 30 touchdowns on 831 carries in those 4 seasons, a 4.4 yards per carry clip, and he’s added 125 catches for 1033 yards and 2 touchdowns in the air. He’s also averaged 15.9 carries per game over the past 3 years as a starter, so being able to work in tandem with another back will help him.

Projection: 220 carries for 920 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 35 catches for 280 receiving yards (168 pts standard, 203 pts PPR)

RB Vick Ballard (Indianapolis)

8/16/13: Chuck Pagano called Bradshaw an every down back. He’ll be their lead back, with Ballard serving as a backup. Ballard is still a valuable handcuff because of injuries, but he’s moving down.

Ballard took over the starting job from Donald Brown week 5 and averaged 15.8 carries a game from that point on, rushing for 814 yards and 2 touchdowns on 211 carries with 17 catches for 152 yards and a touchdown. He averaged just 3.9 yards per carry, but you can blame his offensive line for that somewhat (he averaged a decent 2.5 yards per carry after contact) and he’s the type of back who would be better in tandem with another back. That’s where Ahmad Bradshaw comes in. He’ll probably lead the team in carries, but both backs will carry the ball and Bradshaw will work on 3rd downs. Ballard will get short yardage and goal line looks, though Andrew Luck scored 5 of the team’s 11 rushing touchdowns last year.

Projection: 110 carries for 480 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 15 catches for 120 receiving yards (84 pts standard, 99 pts PPR)

WR Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis)

Wayne turns 35 this November. Over the next 2-4 years, Wayne can be expected to go from top flight receiver to complementary player to gone. That’s just what happens to receivers around this age. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Wayne already showed some signs of slowing down in the 2nd half of last season, catching “just” 45 passes for 520 yards and 2 touchdowns. He could have another big year, but let him be someone else’s problem.

Projection: 75 catches for 1020 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (138 pts standard, 213 pts PPR)

WR TY Hilton (Indianapolis)

8/26/13: It doesn’t look like TY Hilton is going to beat out veteran Darrius Heyward-Bey for a starting job. Hilton had 26 catches for 506 yards and 5 touchdowns in his final 8 games last season, despite making just 1 start, but the Colts are planning on using more two-tight end sets and fewer three-wide receiver sets this season with Bruce Arians gone and Pep Hamilton coming in. They also won’t emphasis the deep passing game as much as they did last season, when Luck led the NFL in pass attempts 20+ yards downfield through the air, which is where Hilton wins as a route runner. He could still beat out DHB at some point this season and I think he’d be a better pick for the starting job, but he’s being overdrafted at his current ADP in the 6th round.

Since 2005, 28 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 40 catches for 557 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. I don’t have the numbers for the descending rounds, but they are almost definitely lower. And Hilton, a 3rd round rookie, greatly exceeded these first round numbers, catching 50 passes for 861 yards and 7 touchdowns. In his 2nd year in the league, he should improve on those numbers. Donnie Avery is gone so Hilton is expected to be a starter and Reggie Wayne is aging. In his final 8 games of last season, he caught 26 passes for 506 yards and 5 touchdowns in his final 8 games, almost more yardage than Reggie Wayne. He’s a dark horse to lead this team in receiving.

Projection: 58 catches for 940 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns (130 pts standard, 188 pts PPR)

WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (Indianapolis)

8/26/13: I don’t know why, but Darrius Heyward-Bey seems to have beaten out TY Hilton for the starting job. He’s not that great, but the Colts passing offense could make him fantasy relevant. Donnie Avery was incredibly inefficient last season, yet he still managed 60 catches for 781 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s worth a look as a depth receiver.

Projection: 57 catches for 850 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns (115 pts standard, 172 pts standard)

TE Dwayne Allen (Indianapolis)

Allen is not just a great blocker, but he also had 45 catches for 521 yards and 3 touchdowns on 368 routes run (1.41 yards per route run). Going into his 2nd year in the league in an offense that focuses more on the tight ends, he should exceed those numbers, though the Colts’ two tight ends will probably keep each other from being fantasy relevant.

Projection: 50 catches for 620 receiving yards 4 touchdowns (86 pts standard, 136 pts PPR)

TE Coby Fleener (Indianapolis)

He was pretty mediocre as a rookie and disappointed as a pass catcher, catching just 26 passes for 281 yards and 2 touchdowns on 252 routes run (1.12 yards per route run). Still, he’s a natural pass catcher who should have an improved 2nd season in the league. Having his old offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton should help. However, again, the two tight ends will probably keep each other from being fantasy relevant.

Projection: 44 catches for 600 receiving yards 4 touchdowns (84 pts standard, 128 pts PPR)

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Tennessee Titans 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Jake Locker (Tennessee)

Locker still has upside and he’s not proven either way with just 11 starts under his belt, but I didn’t think he’d become a franchise quarterback coming out of Washington and the Titans have not seemed confident in him this off-season, saying that a “major goal” is preventing Locker from “feeling overwhelmed.” The Titans have added Ryan Fitzpatrick, a proven backup caliber talent, behind him this off-season, to replace Hasselbeck and he could see multiple starts, especially if Locker gets hurt again. Even if he does play all 16 games, he’s an inconsistent QB2 at best, though his rushing ability does give you added value.

Projection: 3500 passing yards 19 touchdowns 16 interceptions 400 rushing yards 2 rushing touchdowns (236 pts standard, 274 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Chris Johnson (Tennessee)

An improved offensive line has to be music to Chris Johnson’s ears because of how reliant on a good offensive line he is. He’s incredibly explosive through holes, but when there aren’t holes, he doesn’t do a lot to help himself, frequently dancing around in the backfield, and getting little after contact. It’s why he has such good games against bad run defenses and bad games against good run defenses. He’s as good as anyone in the NFL when the hole is there though so he could have a very good season. He could see fewer carries, but only slightly with Shonn Greene coming in. Unless he steals a bunch of touchdowns, he won’t hurt Johnson’s production too much. Johnson is also active in the passing game, catching 230 passes in 5 years and he’s missed just 1 game in his career.

Projection: 250 carries for 1200 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 44 catches for 340 receiving yards (196 pts standard, 240 pts PPR)

RB Shonn Greene (Tennessee)

Greene will serve as primarily a backup and change of pace short yardage back. He is a marginal runner with minimal explosiveness, but he does fit his new role well, even if it was an overpay to give him 10 million over 3 years to serve in that role. He’ll get the goal line carries, but there won’t be a lot of those in Tennessee’s offense. He’ll need an injury to Chris Johnson to be fantasy relevant and should only be considered a handcuff. Johnson has missed just 1 game in his career.

Projection: 110 carries for 460 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 13 catches for 80 receiving yards (84 pts standard, 97 pts PPR)

WR Kenny Britt (Tennessee)

8/27/13: I liked Kenny Britt as a sleeper because he was getting through the off-season without any off the field incidents or any injury problems. However, he’s going to miss the Titans’ final pre-season game with recurring knee problems and has reportedly had problems with swelling for a while. He might just never get healthy enough to make good on his talent. He’s still a nice sleeper, but he’s only a WR4 or WR5.

Before tearing his ACL early in the 2011 season, Britt caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns over his last 14 full games, despite inconsistent, at best, quarterback play. He struggled in 2012 with injury and off the field problems, catching just 45 passes for 589 yards and 4 touchdowns, but now he’s a year removed any off the field incidents and another year removed from that torn ACL. He’s had a great off-season and he’s still a former 1st round pick going into his age 25 season. There’s upside with him at his current ADP in the 8th or 9th round.

Projection: 55 catches for 880 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns (124 pts standard, 179 pts PPR)

WR Kendall Wright (Tennessee)

Wright caught 64 passes for 626 yards and 4 touchdowns as a 1st round rookie last year, which is above the average for a 1st round rookie. He should be better this year now that he’s not a rookie, but it might take until his 3rd year for him to truly breakout. He’ll battle with Kenny Britt and Nate Washington for playing time in an uncertain wide receiver trio and I think he’s the 2nd most talented player in that group. There’s upside with him, but he could end up being just a secondary receiver in a subpar passing offense.

Projection: 55 catches for 740 receiving yards 4 touchdowns (98 pts standard, 153 pts PPR)

WR Nate Washington (Tennessee)

8/27/13: With Kenny Britt remaining an injury risk, Nate Washington gets a stock up. He’s been Jake Locker’s preferred target this pre-season, as he was last season, but there’s not a lot of upside with him. He’s not the talent Britt can be when healthy and he’s unlikely to exceed last year’s 46/746/4 line by much in this receiving corps with the Titans’ quarterback situation.

Projection: 51 catches for 770 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns (107 pts standard, 158 pts PPR)

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Seattle Seahawks 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Russell Wilson (Seattle)

In the 2nd half of last season, Wilson completed 123 of 183 passes for 1652 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, rushing for 361 yards and 4 touchdowns on 58 attempts. That’s 3304 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, with 722 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns on 116 attempts over a 16 game season. He won’t match those numbers, because that would be absurd, a 120.3 QB rating with plus rushing ability, but he should surpass his rookie numbers and be a solid QB1.

Projection: 3300 passing yards 27 touchdowns 8 interceptions 550 rushing yards 6 touchdowns (315 pts standard, 369 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Marshawn Lynch (Seattle)

Marshawn Lynch has completely revitalized his career in Seattle. He struggled in his first season in Seattle, with the exception of the beast mode run in the post-season against the Saints, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, but in 2011, he averaged 4.2 yards per carry on 285 carries with 12 touchdowns. In 2012, he improved that to 5.0 yards per carry on 315 carries with another 11 touchdowns as Russell Wilson’s arm and rushing ability took the defense’s attention off of Lynch. His only real flaw is he’s caught just 51 passes in the last 2 seasons. I don’t see why Lynch can’t do something similar again in 2013, though he may see slightly fewer carries heading into his age 27 season as the Seahawks used a 2nd round pick on a running back in Christine Michael.

Projection: 280 carries for 1320 rushing yards 11 total touchdowns 25 catches for 190 receiving yards (217 pts standard, 242 pts PPR)

WR Golden Tate (Seattle)

7/30/13: Harvin is out for most of the season. Rice’s knee remains a problem. That opens the door for Golden Tate to not only enter back into the starting lineup, but for him to probably lead this team in receiving. He had 25 catches for 433 yards and 4 touchdowns in his final 8 games last season and is the Seattle receiver to own in fantasy.

Golden Tate also had a very solid year last year, as the 2010 2nd round pick broke out in his 3rd season in the league the way so many receivers do. Again, the stats didn’t show it as he caught just 45 passes for 688 yards and 7 touchdowns, but he did that on just 378 routes run, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 24th ranked wide receiver overall. However, with Harvin coming in, like with Rice, the smart money is on his production going down as he’ll be the 3rd receiver. The Seahawks ranked 26th in the NFL in 3-wide receiver sets last season, which shouldn’t significantly go up this season. His best shot at statistical and fantasy relevance is a Rice or Harvin injury, though that’s not unlikely at all.

Projection: 55 catches for 800 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (122 pts standard, 177 pts PPR)

WR Sidney Rice (Seattle)

7/30/13: The good news for Rice is that Harvin is out for most of the season, so he won’t eat into his targets. However, Rice is also getting treatment on his knee in Switzerland. He isn’t expected to miss any games, but it’s not a good sign for a player who has topped 13 games in a season just twice in his career an has missed 23 games in the last 6 seasons. It’s just a reminder than Rice is unlikely to match last season’s numbers. I’d rather have Golden Tate.

Rice played all 16 games for the 2nd time in his 6 year career last season and, while you wouldn’t know it from his stats, he played very well. He caught just 50 passes for 748 yards and 7 touchdowns, but he did that on 422 routes run (includes sacks). If he had been on a more pass heavy team like he was in 2009, his breakout season when he ran 547 routes for Brett Favre, he would have had 65 catches for 970 yards and 9 touchdowns. He’s a very solid #2 receiver, but with Harvin coming in and his history of injury problems (23 games missed in 6 seasons), the smart money is on him not matching even the 50 catches for 748 yards and 7 touchdowns he had last season.

Projection: 44 catches for 700 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (106 pts standard, 150 pts PPR)

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St. Louis 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Rams, Uncategorized

QB Sam Bradford (St. Louis)

After an ankle injury limited to 10 games in his 2nd season in the league in 2011, Bradford bounced back from in his 3rd year in the league, playing all 16 games again and improving on his rookie numbers by throwing for 3702 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. With the addition of Jake Long, Tavon Austin, and Jared Cook around him, he looks poised to exceed all of those career highs in his 4th year in the league. There’s a lot of uncertainty with him, but he’s a high upside QB2.

Projection: 3850 passing yards 22 touchdowns 12 interceptions 100 rushing yards 1 touchdown (234 pts standard, 278 pts 6 pt td league)

RB Daryl Richardson (St. Louis)

8/20/13: Daryl Richardson has been named the starting running back of the St. Louis Rams. He shouldn’t feel too comfortable as Isaiah Pead and/or Zac Stacy could both steal carries and even starts from him this season, but he gets moved up. Steven Jackson’s primary running back, Richardson rushed for 475 yards on 95 carries and also caught 24 passes for 163 yards. He’s a solid bet to go over 200 touches. Pead will be the change of pace back. There’s still an opportunity for Zac Stacy to eventually become a starter at some point this season if the unproven players above him on the depth chart don’t impress, but he’s not really worth drafting. He might be a nice late season waiver wire pickup if anything.

The Rams have a 3 way battle for the starting running back job and all 3 should see carries. You shouldn’t use a high pick on any of them unless one starts to run away with the job. They’re all draftable though. I consider Richardson the favorite. He was Jackson’s primary backup last season, rushing for 475 yards on 98 carries, while contributing 24 catches for 163 yards. The 7th round rookie leapfrogged 2nd round rookie Isaiah Pead on the depth chart for that job.

Projection: 180 carries for 790 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 35 catches for 250 receiving yards (140 pts standard, 175 pts PPR)

RB Isaiah Pead (St. Louis)

Pead is my 3rd favorite running back in St. Louis’ backfield. He’s draftable, but he had just 10 carries as a rookie. The 2nd rounder has talent and I’m not going to write him off or anything, but it’s certainly been a disappointing start to the career of a player who I thought was overdrafted (he’s a change of pace/passing catching back/return man).

Projection: 100 carries for 430 rushing yards 3 total touchdowns 18 catches for 130 receiving yards (74 pts standard, 92 pts PPR)

WR Chris Givens (St. Louis)

I think Givens will actually lead this receiving corps in yardage. As a mere rookie, Givens led the Rams’ nondescript receiving corps with 698 yards and caught 42 passes and 3 touchdowns. In his 2nd year in the league, he should be able to improve on them as he’s another year matured and another year more comfortable with the offense and Sam Bradford, especially since he figures to play more snaps. He averaged 1.90 yards per route run, 25th in the league out of 82 eligible wide receivers. This year, with Brandon Gibson and the oft injured Danny Amendola gone, Givens is by far the team’s leading returning receiver. Unlike the new batch of receivers, he has a year of experience in the offense and with Sam Bradford.

Projection: 56 catches for 820 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns  (112 pts standard, 168 pts PPR)

WR Tavon Austin (St. Louis)

Tavon Austin is overrated in fantasy circles. He’s just a rookie. Since 2005, 28 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 40 catches for 557 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Austin will do some nice things as a rookie and they’ll line him up in the backfield on occasion to get him his touches, but I think he’s at least a year away from being the type of player a lot of people think he already is. He might not even start as a rookie, focusing on the slot

Projection: 39 catches for 650 receiving yards and 5 total touchdowns, 20 carries for 150 rushing yards (110 pts standard, 149 pts PPR)

TE Jared Cook (St. Louis)

Jared Cook was underutilized in Tennessee and put up good per snap numbers as a receiver despite never really having great quarterback play. He has 1718 career receiving yards on 1057 career routes run, a rate of 1.63 yards per route run. For comparison, Owen Daniels had 1.63 yards per route run this season, good for 11th in the NFL. However, he doesn’t block, which is a big part of the reason why he was only a part-time player in Tennessee and he’s still relatively unproven. The Rams are paying a lot of money to find out if he can be an elite tight end in the right situation. They’ll give him every opportunity to live up to his contract, but I don’t think he will.

Projection: 45 catches for 700 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns (100 pts standard, 145 pts PPR)

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New York Giants 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Giants, Uncategorized

QB Eli Manning (NY Giants)

Eli threw for 4933 yards in 2011, but other than that has never gone over 4021. He proved that 2011 was a fluke by throwing for just 3948 yards in 2012. It’s not that he’s a bad quarterback, but the Giants prefer a balanced attack. I do expect him to go over those 4021 yards this season because he’s got a loaded receiving corps with Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Myers, and Reuben Randle.

Projection: 4200 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (263 pts standard, 323 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB David Wilson (NY Giants)

8/29/13: I was already considering moving Wilson up because he was taking some of the goal line carries away from Andre Brown and because he was having an amazing pre-season, averaging 7.5 yards per carry. However, Andre Brown is out indefinitely with a fractured ankle and might miss the entire season. It’s the same leg he fractured last season. He’s not draftable any more, while Wilson has minimal competition for carries and is as close to being a true feature back as you can be. There’s RB1 upside here. The Giants have averaged 16.6 rushing touchdowns per season since 2004. The last time a Giants’ starting running back was also the goal line back, he scored 15 times, Tiki Barber in 2004, before Brandon Jacobs and Andre Brown. Brandon Jacobs scored 15 times in 2008 despite splitting carries. Tom Coughlin runs on the goal line.

Wilson showed a lot of explosiveness as a rookie, especially on special teams, but he only got 71 carries. That should be closer to 200 this season. However, Andre Brown will continue to steal carries from him, especially around the goal line. The coaching staff doesn’t 100% trust Wilson get and Brown is the better short yardage and passing down back.

Projection: 280 carries for 1260 rushing yards 12 total touchdowns 28 catches for 200 rushing yards (218 pts standard, 246 pts PPR)

WR Victor Cruz (NY Giants)

Cruz didn’t match the 82 catches for 1536 yards and 9 touchdowns he had in 2011, but it would have been unreasonable to expect him to do that. He still caught 86 passes for 1092 yards and 10 touchdowns and he could do even better than that this season. His one issue last season was his 12 drops.

Projection: 84 catches for 1170 receiving yards 9 touchdowns (171 pts standard, 255 pts PPR)

WR Hakeem Nicks (NY Giants)

Nicks essentially missed 4 games last season and was limited in others, catching just 53 passes for a career low 692 yards and 3 touchdowns. However, remember, he averaged 78 catches for 1122 yards and 9 touchdowns per season in 2010 and 2011 despite missing 4 combined games in those 2 seasons. He’s never played a full 16 game set and I wouldn’t expect that to change this season, but I like his chances to get back over 1000 yards and give the Giants two 1000 yard receivers.

Projection: 71 catches for 1020 receiving yards 8 touchdowns (150 pts standard, 221 pts PPR)

TE Brandon Myers (NY Giants)

Giants tight ends always seem to be productive in the passing game, regardless of who they are. Tight ends coach Mike Pope is a big part of the reason for this, as is the offensive system and Eli Manning’s tendency to throw to the tight end. Myers caught 79 passes for 804 yards and 4 touchdowns on just 101 targets last season with Carson Palmer throwing him the ball. He could match that, or even exceed that.

Projection: 74 catches for 790 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (109 pts standard, 183 pts PPR)

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Washington Redskins 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Commanders, Uncategorized

QB Robert Griffin (Washington)

Griffin is expected to be ready for week 1 of this season, but he has a history of knee problems so it’s unclear if he’ll be able to stay healthy for all 16 games and at what percent of his peak ability he’ll be able to play. They’re already talking about limiting his carries, which is such a big part of his game. He also shouldn’t be expected to maintain the 1.3% interception rate he had last season, even if he is healthy.

Projection: 3150 passing yards 19 passing touchdowns 9 interceptions 550 rushing yards 5 rushing touchdowns (269 pts standard, 307 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Alfred Morris (Washington)

It can be easy to forget because of what Robert Griffin did, but RG3 wasn’t the Redskins’ only rookie sensation. 6th round rookie Alfred Morris surprisingly won the starting job week 1 and did his best Terrell Davis impression for the rest of the season, rushing for 1613 yards and 13 touchdowns on 335 attempts. However, Morris owes a lot of his success to Griffin taking the attention off of him. Defenses had to focus on Griffin’s arm strength and running ability and, as a result, Morris had a lot of running room in their read option offense. Credit Morris for his vision, intelligence, and for wasting no movement, but it’s definitely worth noting that Morris rushed for just 3.2 yards per carry without Griffin against Cleveland. Morris’ running success will largely be tied to Griffin’s success and Morris also provides very little on passing downs, catching just 11 passes for 77 yards.

Projection: 300 carries for 1320 rushing yards 11 total touchdowns 10 catches for 70 yards (205 pts standard, 215 pts PPR)

WR Pierre Garcon (Washington)

Despite playing through injuries, Garcon had 633 yards on 215 routes run last season, good for 2.94 yards per route run, 2nd in the NFL among eligible wide receivers behind Andre Johnson. He was targeted 63 times, giving him a very impressive yard per target rate of over 10 per and with 63 targets on 215 routes run, he was by far Robert Griffin’s favorite target to throw to when he was on the field. Griffin was also very efficient when throwing to him, completing 69.8% of his passes for 10.0 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception, a QB rating of 116.7, 14th in the NFL among eligible wide receivers. It’s clear that Garcon has a ton of upside in his role in Washington’s offense. As long as he and Griffin can stay healthy, they he can put up big numbers. It’s a risk, but there’s a ton of upside here.

Projection: 70 catches for 1100 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (152 pts standard, 222 pts PPR)

TE Fred Davis (Washington)

Tight end Fred Davis went down with a season ending torn Achilles early in their 7th game of the season. He was brought back on a one year prove it deal that could pay dividends if he’s healthy. He’s only played in 18 full games over the past 2 seasons thanks to injury and suspension, but he has caught 82 passes for 1110 yards and 3 touchdowns in those 18 games, despite playing 12 of them with Rex Grossman as his quarterback. We’ll see how he bounces back after his injury, but he has great natural receiving ability.

Projection: 55 catches for 750 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns (99 pts standard, 154 pts PPR)

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