2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews

Philadelphia Eagles 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Eagles, Uncategorized

QB Michael Vick (Philadelphia)

8/20/13: Michael Vick has been named the starter for the Eagles. The good news is he’ll have a better supporting cast than he did last season unless injuries strike at the same level they did last season and he has a new Head Coach in Chip Kelly who wants him to run more. Vick did look great in the pre-season in Kelly’s system and he has that Kelly has made him fall in love with the game again. That’s the good news.

The bad news is he’s almost a lock to miss 3-4 games with injury and I wouldn’t rule out him getting benched for Nick Foles or Matt Barkley later in the season, especially if the team is out of playoff contention. He’s averaged 11.8 starts per season over the last 4 years, starting 10 last season, and I think going into his age 33 season, the over/under for starts for him should be around 10.5. On top of that, he’s shown declining physical abilities as a result of age and his injury history and he’s more reliant on his physical abilities than maybe any quarterback in recent history. He was never going to age well. I think he’ll produce like a QB2 and it’s best to go with someone more reliable in a backup quarterback.

Projection: 2300 passing yards, 14 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 450 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (191 pts standard, 219 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia)

McCoy had a very solid stretch from 2010-2011, missing just 2 games and rushing for 2389 yards and 24 touchdowns on 480 carries, with 126 catches for 907 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. He looked like one of the best and most complete backs in the NFL. However, in 2012, he struggled along with the rest of the Eagles’ offense, rushing for just 840 yards on 200 carries, catching 54 passes for 373 yards and scoring just 5 total times, only twice on the ground. He also missed 4 games with injury. He should bounce back this year.

Projection: 250 carries for 1150 rushing yards 10 total touchdowns 58 catches for 470 yards (222 pts standard, 280 pts PPR)

RB Bryce Brown (Philadelphia)

Andy Reid and his pass heavy offense are gone and Chip Kelly figures to have his offense run the ball a lot. Also, Kelly favors a two back approach much more than Reid, who preferred to have one back do everything. Brown will get plenty of action as the #2 back behind LeSean McCoy. He rushed for 564 yards and 4 touchdowns on 115 carries and caught 13 passes for 56 yards last season.

Projection: 120 carries for 560 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 15 catches for 90 yards (95 pts standard, 110 pts PPR)

WR DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia)

7/28/13: With Maclin going down for the season, DeSean Jackson should see an increase in targets. He’s currently the 32nd wide receiver off the board on average, going in the 7th or 8th round range, but he should be his team’s leading receiver by far and he’ll give you added value on the ground as well. He’s a nice value.

Jackson has rushed just 54 times in his career in 5 seasons, going for 371 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he could see that number increase this season as he’s expected to be used somewhat in that DeAnthony Thomas role. He won’t get a ton of carries, but the Eagles will do a lot of things to get the ball in his hands because of his speed. He’ll probably also see more short throws and screens than he normally does, as they attempt to get him the ball in space, and could easily surpass his career high 62 receptions, though he probably won’t reach his career 17.5 yards per reception average.

Projection: 67 catches for 1000 receiving yards 8 total touchdowns 25 carries for 170 rushing yards (165 pts standard, 232 pts PPR)

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Dallas Cowboys 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Tony Romo (Dallas)

In his career, Romo has completed 64.7% of his passes for an average of 7.9 YPA and 177 touchdowns to 91 interceptions, good for a career QB rating of 95.6, 5th highest all-time behind Aaron Rodgers, Steve Young, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning. The 19 interceptions he threw last season, which led the league, tied a career high and was the same amount he threw in his last two full seasons combined. The Cowboys might not throw 658 times in 2012, which was 3rd most in the NFL and 90 more attempts than any Cowboy team in the Tony Romo era. However, this is more and more becoming a passing league and while they’d probably prefer not to have to pass that many times in 2013, they’ll still be a pass heavy team that should throw the ball at least 600 times.

Projection: 4450 passing yards for 29 touchdowns 15 interceptions 50 rushing yards 1 touchdown (275 pts standard, 333 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB DeMarco Murray (Dallas)

DeMarco Murray might be a little overrated off of the 25 carry/253 yard performance against St. Louis in his first NFL start as a 3rd round rookie in 2011. That was a completely hapless Rams defense at the time and if you take out that game, he’s averaged just 4.4 yards per carry in his career. Last season, he averaged 4.1 yards per carry and since his first 4 starts, he’s managed just 866 yards on 225 carries, a 3.8 YPC clip. He’s not as proven as people think. He’s also been hampered by numerous injuries, missing the end of his rookie season in 2011 and being limited to 161 carries in 2012. Injuries can not only keep a running back off the field, but also sap his explosiveness and Murray has injury issues dating back to his collegiate days at Oklahoma. There’s a reason he fell to the 3rd round.

Projection: 200 carries for 840 rushing yards and 7 total touchdowns 37 catches for 290 yards (155 pts, 192 pts PPR)

WR Dez Bryant (Dallas)

Bryant has always had all the talent in the world and, as is often the case with wide receivers, he finally put everything together in his 3rd year in the league in 2012, catching 92 passes for 1382 yards and 12 touchdowns and playing in all 16 games for the first time. He also closed 2012 incredibly well, catching 50 passes for 879 yards and 10 touchdowns in his final 8 games. This off-season has actually been his first without any sort of off the field distraction so he could be even better in 2013. He finally seems to have turned a corner.

Projection: 94 catches for 1440 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns (216 pts, 310 pts PPR)

WR Miles Austin (Dallas)

Miles Austin caught 66 passes for 943 yards and 6 touchdowns last season, rebounding from an injury plagued 2011 season. He might never produce the kind of numbers he had in 2009 and 2010, when he averaged 75 catches for 1181 yards and 9 touchdowns per season, because of Dez Bryant’s emergence and Jason Witten’s presence, and his final 8 game production from 2012 is concerning (25 catches for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns), but he’s only 29 and you can do a lot worse.

Projection: 55 catches for 840 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns (120 pts, 175 pts PPR)

TE Jason Witten (Dallas)

Witten is one of the most dependable players in the NFL regardless of position. He hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year in 2003, signing a waiver to play through a ruptured spleen week 1 of last season and his worst season since his rookie year was 2006, when he still caught 64 passes for 754 yards and 1 touchdowns. Since 2004, his 2nd season in the league, he’s averaged 86 catches for 956 yards and 5 touchdowns per season and only going into his age 31 season coming off a career high in catches, I see no reason why that wouldn’t continue.

Projection: 88 catches for 980 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns (128 pts, 216 pts PPR)

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay)

The Buccaneers are an incredibly inconsistent team. It’s no surprise they’re this inconsistent when their quarterback is this inconsistent. It wasn’t just last year. They went 3-13 in 2009, 10-6 in 2010, and then 4-12 in 2011 as Josh Freeman posted 10/18, 25/6, and 16/22 touchdown to interception ratios in those 3 seasons respectively. Last year, he started the year with a 5/4 TD/interception ratio in their first 4 games, then had a 16/3 ratio in their next 6, and then a 5/9 ratio on that 5 game losing streak, before having a decent game against Atlanta. In wins, he had a 97.6 QB rating, which is comparable to Tom Brady’s and Ben Roethlisberger’s. In losses, that rating was 71.4, which is comparable to Chad Henne and Mark Sanchez. He’s an inconsistent QB2, who might not keep his job all season. Look elsewhere.

Projection: 3650 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 200 rushing yards, 1 touchdown (224 pts standard, 268 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Doug Martin (Tampa Bay)

While Martin did catch 49 passes as a rookie, the most impressive thing he did, by far, is rush for 1454 yards and 11 touchdowns on 319 carries, emerging as a true, complete feature back from the word go. As is the case with all running backs, his ability to replicate that in 2013 is dependent on whether or not he stays healthy. He does have a history of injuries from his days at Boise State, but he was still an incredible find with the 31st pick of the 2012 NFL Draft, after the Buccaneers traded back into the first to grab him, jumping ahead of the Giants, who were ready to take him one spot later.

Projection: 300 carries for 1350 rushing yards 12 total touchdowns 50 catches for 450 rushing yards (252 pts standard, 302 pts PPR)

WR Vincent Jackson (Tampa Bay)

The Buccaneers signed Vincent Jackson to a 5-year 55.5 million dollar contract last off-season that appeared risky at the time. Jackson, who had previously held out 10 games because he wanted to get paid, appeared to just be chasing the money going to Tampa Bay and could have easily just coasted. He was also going into his age 29 season so he was on the downside of his prime and probably wouldn’t get any better. However, Jackson somehow turned in the best season of his career, catching 72 passes for 1384 yards and 8 touchdowns.

Projection: 65 catches for 1200 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (162 pts standard, 227 pts PPR)

WR Mike Williams (Tampa Bay)

Jackson’s presence reinvigorated Mike Williams, who no longer had to deal with opponent’s #1 cornerbacks. Williams himself also deserves credit for getting himself back into shape after a miserable 2nd season in the league in 2011. All of this led to the 2010 4th round pick totaling 63 catches for 996 yards and 9 touchdowns opposite Jackson. Williams was 4 yards away from giving the Buccaneers two 1000 yard receivers, something only Denver (Thomas/Decker), New Orleans (Colston/Moore), Atlanta (White/Jones), and Dallas (Bryant/Witten) could also say.

Projection: 65 catches for 1000 receiving yards 8 touchdowns (148 pts standard, 213 pts PPR)

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Atlanta Falcons 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Matt Ryan (Atlanta)

Dirk Koetter’s arrival in Atlanta led to Matt Ryan attempting a career high 615 passes last season, which led to a career high in completions (422), yards (4719), and touchdowns (32). He was also the most efficient he’s ever been on a per play basis, ranking 5th in the NFL with a 99.4 QB rating, a career high. Also a career high was his 68.6% completion percentage and his 7.7 yards per attempt were the 2nd highest of his career. While he did throw 14 interceptions, his interception rate of 2.3% was actually right in line with his career average. He could see inferior production this season as a result of a tougher schedule, though not a lot inferior.

Projection: 4500 passing yards 30 touchdowns 15 interceptions 100 rushing yards 1 touchdown (286 pts standard, 346 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Steven Jackson (Atlanta)

Steven Jackson can’t be worse than Michael Turner, but Falcons fans might not be getting the guy they’re expecting. He turns 30 in July and has 2395 career carries. He’s 26th all-time in rushing yards at 10,135, but the average top-25 all-time running back has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. And after players have their drop off, they average just 169 carries per season at 3.5 yards per carry and just 5 touchdowns, so they’re really a non-factor as a back. He should have one more good year in him, but there are no guarantees at this point in his career.

Projection: 200 carries for 860 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 30 catches for 250 rushing yards (159 pts standard, 189 pts PPR)

RB Jacquizz Rodgers (Atlanta)     

With Jackson coming in, it’s unclear what role Rodgers will have. Rodgers did well in 2012, catching 53 passes, to go with 94 carries, but Jackson is also a good pass catcher and unlike Turner will stay on the field in passing downs. Rodgers should go back to being a true backup and he’ll be insurance in case father time finally beats Jackson. Jackson doesn’t have a ton of explosive burst at this point in his career so Rodgers’ speed will serve well as a complement.

Projection: 110 carries for 480 rushing yards 3 total touchdowns 40 catches for 300 receiving yards (96 pts standard, 136 pts PPR)

WR Julio Jones (Atlanta)

Julio Jones is heading into his 3rd year in the league, a year when receivers tend to break out, as if a receiver who caught 79 passes for 1198 yards and 10 touchdowns in his age 23 season could break out any more. I expect him to be their leading receiver though.

Projection: 80 catches for 1240 receiving yards 10 touchdowns (184 pts standard, 264 pts PPR)

WR Roddy White (Atlanta)

Roddy White is heading into his age 32 season, so some statistical drop off is to be expected. He’s already noticeably less explosive than he was in his prime and he averaged just 3.6 yards average catch per catch last season. He’s much more of a possession receiver than anything else at this point in his career, though a very good one at that.

Projection: 85 catches for 1200 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (162 pts standard, 247 pts PPR)

TE Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta)

Tony Gonzalez, meanwhile, is even older, heading into his age 37 season and his 2.7 yards after catch per catch were even less than White’s. His mere 10.0 yards per catch also shows a lack of explosiveness and while he was a great possession receiver last year, he did have 13 fewer catches the year before and 23 fewer two years before that. I think it’s much more likely that his production falls off drastically than White’s.

Projection: 70 catches for 770 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (113 pts standard, 183 pts PPR)

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New Orleans Saints 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Drew Brees (New Orleans)

There was concern about how Brees would do without Sean Payton last season, but he did fine, completing 63.0% of his passes for an average of 7.7 YPA, 43 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions, while leading the NFL’s #3 ranked scoring offense. He’s now thrown for 5000 yards in 3 of the last 5 seasons, including the past 2, the first quarterback in NFL history to do so. Since 2008, he’s completed 2114 of 3134 (67.5%) for 24730 yards (7.9 YPA), 190 touchdowns, 83 interceptions.

Projection: 5000 passing yards 39 touchdowns 16 interceptions 50 rushing yards 0 rushing touchdowns (329 pts standard, 407 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Mark Ingram (New Orleans)

Mark Ingram will once again be the lead back and hoping to get things together in his 3rd year, after going in the 1st round in 2011. He’s averaged just 3.9 yards per carry since and had just 278 carries, struggling through injuries. He could breakout this season though and the Saints seem confident in him, trading away their top insurance option in Chris Ivory.

Projection: 200 carries for 880 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 12 catches for 100 yards (146 pts standard, 158 pts PPR)

RB Darren Sproles (New Orleans)

Darren Sproles is essentially more of a slot receiver than a running back. He’s had 135 carries and 161 catches in the last 2 seasons and is a threat to score at any time, scoring 17 touchdowns. I don’t know why his role would change this season.

Projection: 60 carries for 300 yards 8 total touchdowns 77 catches for 670 receiving yards (145 pts standard, 222 pts PPR)

RB Pierre Thomas (New Orleans)

Pierre Thomas is the primary backup and has done a good job, rushing for 4.8 yards per carry in his career, though he’s maxed out at 147 carries. He’s also been a big part of the passing game as well, catching 188 passes in 66 games in the past 5 seasons.

Projection: 100 carries for 460 yards 4 total touchdowns 40 catches for 340 receiving yards (104 pts standard, 144 pts PPR)

WR Marques Colston (New Orleans)

Marques Colston gets a reputation for being injury prone and he has had a bunch of knee surgeries, but he’s only missed 10 games in 7 seasons and he’s been nothing if not reliable. With the exception of 2008 (when he played a career low 11 games), he’s caught 70 passes for 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns in every season of his career. Last season, he once again had big time production, catching 83 passes for 1132 yards and 10 touchdowns while not missing a game. He’s only 30 and he has great chemistry with Drew Brees so he should once again be Drew Brees’ top receiver.

Projection: 80 catches for 1070 receiving yards 8 touchdowns (155 pts standard, 235 pts PPR)

WR Lance Moore (New Orleans)

Lance Moore had 1000 yards last year, catching 65 passes for 1041 yards and 6 touchdowns. He’s an underrated receiver who has the talent to be an incredibly productive receiver when he has an opportunity and the starting job opposite Colston is all his, but he’s had a history of injuries, so that’s a concern.

Projection: 60 catches for 880 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (130 pts standard, 190 pts PPR)

TE Jimmy Graham (New Orleans)

Jimmy Graham was the Saints’ leading receiver in 2011, catching 99 passes for 1310 yards and 11 touchdowns, but injuries led to a league leading 15 drops in 2012 and he “only” caught 85 passes for 982 yards and 9 touchdowns in 15 games in 2012. He should get back over 1000 this season though.

Projection: 82 catches for 1020 receiving yards 9 touchdowns (156 pts standard, 238 pts PPR)

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Carolina Panthers 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Cam Newton (Carolina)

Newton was noticeably better in the 2nd half of last season, with 1964 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, all while rushing for 394 yards and 4 touchdowns. Heading into his 3rd season in the league, it’s very possible he’s turned a corner permanently. There’s immense upside here.

Projection: 4000 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 750 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns (359 pts standard, 409 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB DeAngelo Williams (Carolina)

8/20/13: With Stewart possibly starting the season on the PUP, Williams gets a stock up. He had 173 carries last season with Stewart missing time and could see even more this season as the Panthers want to have a little bit more of a traditional running game. Cam Newton and goal line back Mike Tolbert will still steal a bunch of touchdowns and Newton is still a good bet to take off a bunch of times on his own though and Williams just isn’t that talented anymore.

Williams did average 4.3 yards per carry on 173 carries last year, but only because of a random 210 yard/21 carry performance in week 17 against a laughable New Orleans defense. Before that, he was averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. Going into his age 30 season this year, things aren’t going to get better.

Projection: 180 carries for 720 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 18 catches for 130 receiving yards (121 pts standard, 139 pts PPR)

RB Jonathan Stewart (Carolina)

8/20/13: Stewart is the more talented of Carolina’s two backs, but he can’t stay healthy. After missing 7 games with injury last season, Stewart is a candidate to start the season on the PUP, which would cost him the first 6 weeks of the season, this according to Head Coach Ron Rivera. Stewart had 93 carries in 9 games last year. He might not exceed that by much this season.

Injuries limited Stewart to just 3.6 yards per carry and 93 carries, but he’s only 26 and had only missed 2 games in the prior 4 years, when he averaged 4.8 yards per carry. Provided he’s healthy, he should be able to be a solid starting running back this season and keep the aging DeAngelo Williams off the field as much as possible.

Projection: 100 carries for 440 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 15 catches for 100 receiving yards (84 pts standard, 99 pts PPR)

RB Mike Tolbert (Carolina)

Tolbert rushed for 3.4 yards per carry on 54 carries while scoring 7 touchdowns as a short yardage back, which is impressive considering his role. He should be able to do the same again in 2013. Tolbert also is a good pass catcher, leading Carolina backs with 27 catches and serving essentially as a move tight end in certain situations.

Projection: 60 carries for 210 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 30 catches for 270 yards (78 pts standard, 108 pts PPR)

WR Steve Smith (Carolina)

Steve Smith remains the #1 receiver, catching 73 passes for 1174 yards and 4 touchdowns, but it’s unclear how much longer he can do that for, as he’s going into his age 34 season. Over the next 2-4 years, Smith can be expected to go from top flight receiver to complementary player to gone. That’s just what happens to receivers around this age. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37.

Projection: 62 catches for 1020 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (132 pts standard, 194 pts PPR)

WR Brandon LaFell (Carolina)

Their other starting receiver is Brandon LaFell, a marginal pass catcher. He’s a borderline starting receiver at best though and will never be a long term #1 wide receiver. He could see career high numbers, though that wouldn’t be saying a lot.

Projection: 50 catches for 750 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (105 pts standard, 155 pts PPR)

TE Greg Olsen (Carolina)

Greg Olsen was a 1st round pick in the 2007 NFL Draft and finally came into his own last season, catching a career high 69 passes for a career high 843 yards and 5 touchdowns, serving as a very good secondary receiver for Cam Newton, including 35 catches for 448 yards and 4 touchdowns in the 2nd half of the season. With Smith expected to decline a little and Newton expected to improve, Olsen could even surpass last year’s numbers.

Projection: 71 catches for 880 receiving yards 8 touchdowns (136 pts standard, 207 pts PPR)

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2013 Cleveland Browns Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Brandon Weeden (Cleveland)

8/20/13: As was expected all off-season, Brandon Weeden was named the Browns’ starting quarterback and I expect him to have a fairly long leash, even with veterans Jason Campbell and Brian Hoyer behind him. If he stays healthy, he could start all 16 games. However, he’s just a low end QB2. He should post better numbers in his 2nd season in the league in a system that fits him better under Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner, but he won’t be that impressive.

Projection: 3550 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (184 pts standard, 216 pts 6 pt td leagues)

RB Trent Richardson (Cleveland)

8/27/13: So much for him being injury prone. Trent Richardson is, by all accounts, having a phenomenal pre-season and Training Camp and has gotten himself down to 225 pounds and in phenomenal shape. With Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator, he’s locked into a massive workload and should surpass the 318 touches he had last season. He averaged just 3.6 yards per carry last year thanks to injuries sapping his effectiveness, but he’s much more talented than that and he has a very strong offensive line in front of him.

Richardson struggled as a rookie through injuries, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry on 267 carries, though he did catch 51 passes and score 12 times on an overall miserable offense. Now, Richardson is struggling through injuries once again this off-season. Richardson certainly has the talent to be one of the best running back in the NFL, but the question isn’t with his talent. It’s whether or not he can stay healthy.

Projection: 280 carries for 1260 rushing yards 11 total touchdowns 56 catches for 450 receiving yards (237 pts standard, 293 pts PPR)

WR Josh Gordon (Cleveland)

One of the bright spots of the Browns’ 2012 season was the developmental of rookie Josh Gordon, a risky 2nd round choice in the supplemental draft. Naturally, Gordon got himself suspended for the first 2 games of the season for repeated violations of the NFL’s substance abuse policy and is one strike away from being suspended for an entire season. Not only will he miss 2 games, but this could put a developing young receiver behind the 8-ball when he does return for week 3 and beyond. At this point in his career, Gordon is a great deep ball receiver and little else, playing inconsistent overall, but he could really shine in Rob Chudzinski’s offense. He’s a risky fantasy pick, however.

Projection: 54 catches for 800 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (116 pts, 170 pts PPR)

WR Greg Little (Cleveland)

Greg Little, a 2011 2nd round pick, played better down the stretch, but only by default as he caught just 11 of his first 29 targets, including 6 drops. In the final 8 games of the season, he did catch 31 passes for 398 yards and 2 touchdowns with just 3 drops, so perhaps he’s finally turned a corner going into his 3rd year in the league and he’ll be the #1 receiver for a couple games with Gordon suspended. He’s an unexplosive athlete, however, who is among the worst in the NFL in yards per reception and yards per reception after the catch. His future is as a #2 possession receiver at best.

Projection: 62 catches for 750 receiving yards 4 total touchdowns (99 pts, 161 pts PPR)

TE Jordan Cameron (Cleveland)

Cameron is very inexperienced having caught just 26 passes in his 2 years in the league since being drafted in the 4th round in 2011, but the starting job is finally his with Ben Watson gone and while he might still be raw, his freakish athleticism and pass catching ability is exactly what Chudzinski and Turner want out of their tight ends. The 6-5 254 pounder ran a 4.59 with a 37.5 inch vertical at The Combine and was a basketball player at USC, much like Jimmy Graham and Antonio Gates at their respective alma maters. He’s reportedly been great this off-season and he has potential for a breakout year, though, of course, he’ll be handicapped by his quarterback play.

Projection: 45 catches for 600 receiving yards 4 touchdowns (84 pts, 129 pts PPR)

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2013 Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Andy Dalton (Cincinnati)

In those 12 games against future playoff teams, Dalton was 250 of 445 (56.2%) for 2934 yards (6.6 YPA), 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. In the other 22 games, he’s 420 of 679 (61.9%) for 4518 yards (6.7 YPA), 35 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions. This is a concern considering the Bengals have to face 7 teams who made the playoffs in 2012, along with Pittsburgh (twice), Chicago, and what should be an improved Detroit team. I don’t expect him to match his 2012 numbers.

Projection: 3650 passing yards 25 passing touchdowns 17 interceptions 130 rushing yards 2 touchdowns (237 pts standard, 287 pts 6 pt TD leagues)

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Cincinnati)

8/29/13: BJGE is really only worth a late round pick at this point. He’s not an inefficient per carry runner and he doesn’t provide anything in the air. If he starts losing carries and goal line carries to Bernard, he’ll be useless in fantasy, except as a Bernard handcuff.

There is absolutely nothing flashy about Green-Ellis’ game. On 788 career carries, he has just 3 rushes for longer than 34 yards, but also just 3 fumbles. He also doesn’t contribute anything in the passing game with just 48 career catches. He’s good in short yardage, but he doesn’t do much other than run through holes that are blocked. He averaged just 2.1 yards per carry after contact last season after doing the same in 2011, both among the worst in the league, and he also was under 4 yards per carry for the 2nd straight season. Bernard is the more talented back and even as a rookie will take carries away.

Projection: 150 carries for 590 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 12 catches for 70 yards (96 pts, 108 pts PPR)

RB Giovani Bernard (Cincinnati)

8/29/13: Giovani Bernard had a strong pre-season, especially around the goal line. He’s the more talented of Cincinnati’s two running backs and, while he may start the season splitting carries with BenJarvus Green-Ellis, he might not stay in that role all season. Few flex plays have more upside.

Bernard is not a full package back at just 5-8 202, but we’ve seen plenty of backs go in the 2nd round or later with similar billings and go to be to very good running backs, including Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew. It’s unclear how much he can contribute as a rookie, however, as neither of those backs were every down guys until after their 1st season, once they had more time in an NFL weight room. He’ll probably split carries with BJGE, but he’s the more explosive player and more of a factor in the passing game.

Projection: 190 carries for 840 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 40 catches for 320 yards (152 pts, 199 pts PPR)

WR AJ Green (Cincinnati) 

AJ Green has blossomed into one of probably the top-3 wide receivers in the league before even entering the magical wide receiver 3rd year breakout year. He’s one of the top fantasy receivers (and real life receivers) in the game and I don’t see any reason why this year should be any different for him.

Projection: 100 catches for 1400 receiving yards 10 touchdowns (200 pts, 300 pts PPR)

WR Mohamed Sanu (Cincinnati)

Mohamed Sanu had a very nondescript rookie year, catching 16 passes for 154 yards and 4 touchdowns as a 3rd round rookie out of Rutgers. However, I love his fit in Cincinnati, with Andy Dalton having a weaker arm than most franchise quarterbacks, with Jay Gruden leading a West Coast Offense as offensive coordinator, and especially with AJ Green opposite him. Before the draft, I gave Sanu a 2nd round grade and compared him to former Bengal receiver TJ Houshmanzadeh, saying that the perfect fit for him would be for him to play opposite a deep threat like Houshmanzadeh did with Chad Johnson/Ochocinco and just eat up all the underneath targets. Little did I know that Sanu would be drafted by the Bengals, who were in need of a possession receiver like him to play opposite deep threat AJ Green. There’s some upside here late.

Projection: 50 catches for 600 yards 5 touchdowns (90 pts, 140 pts PPR)

TE Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati)

Gresham has made 2 Pro Bowls in his career, but he’s an underrated player who drops a lot of passes (10 last year, including 2 in their playoff loss), commits a lot of penalties (9), and doesn’t run block well. The Bengals brought in Tyler Eifert for that reason and will run more two-tight end sets, which will cut into Gresham’s targets. Look elsewhere.

Projection: 53 catches for 650 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (95 pts, 148 pts PPR)

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2013 Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Steelers, Uncategorized

QB Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh)

Roethlisberger was on pace for 4406 yards, 32 touchdowns, and just 8 interceptions at the halfway point last season, before getting hurt and missing 3 ½ games. He wasn’t the same once he returned either. Unfortunately, Roethlisberger has played in all 16 games just once in his career. He should be improved over last year’s 3265 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, but he won’t reach those extrapolated numbers.

Projection: 3750 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (260 pts standard, 316 pts 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh)

8/31/13: Dwyer’s release is also good news for Bell, as it’s a sign that Bell is farther along in his recovery than originally thought. He’s out of his walking boot and while he’ll miss at least 4-6 weeks with an injury that tends to linger, his value is on the rise. The only concern is that Redman impresses in his absence, but Redman will probably go back to being just a passing down back upon Bell’s return.

8/21/13: Steelers rookie running back Le’Veon Bell is expected to miss at least 6-8 weeks with a Lisfranc injury and he could be a candidate for the injured reserve with designation to return, which would put him out until at least week 9 and his status is even more up in the air than that. There’s no guarantee he’ll be the feature back upon return either. In his absence, the underwhelming trio of Isaac Redman, Jonathan Dwyer, and La’Rod Stephens-Howling will split carries. Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley likes rotating backs anyway. It’s a fantasy situation to avoid.

A rookie 2nd round pick, Bell is not an overly explosive back (his longest run of the last 2 seasons was 40 yards), but he’s incredibly consistent, capable of carrying a load, and a good pass catcher and pass protector. Bell averaged 4.7 yards per carry on 382 carries last year, catching 32 passes and scoring 13 times. He is expected to be the feature back for the Steelers, but Todd Haley has never been one for using just one running back. Even when he had Jamaal Charles almost setting a per carry record at his disposal in 2010, he preferred to use both Charles and Thomas Jones.

Projection: 150 carries for 630 rushing yards and 5 total touchdowns 23 catches for 150 receiving yards (108 pts standard, 131 pts PPR)

RB Isaac Redman (Pittsburgh)

8/31/13: The Steelers have cut Jonathan Dwyer. This is good news for Isaac Redman, who will be pretty much the feature back until Le’Veon Bell returns, with just change of pace backs La’Rod Stephens-Howling and Felix Jones behind him on the depth chart. It’s still not a great fantasy situation, but Redman isn’t a bad late round pick by any stretch of the imagination.

8/21/13: Steelers rookie running back Le’Veon Bell is expected to miss at least 6-8 weeks with a Lisfranc injury and he could be a candidate for the injured reserve with designation to return, which would put him out until at least week 9 and his status is even more up in the air than that. There’s no guarantee he’ll be the feature back upon return either. In his absence, the underwhelming trio of Isaac Redman, Jonathan Dwyer, and La’Rod Stephens-Howling will split carries. Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley likes rotating backs anyway. It’s a fantasy situation to avoid.

Projection: 140 carries for 630 rushing yards and 4 total touchdowns 25 catches for 200 receiving yards (107 pts standard, 132 pts PPR)

WR Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh)

Brown caught 42 passes for 499 yards in the first 8 games of last season, continuing where he left off the previous season, when he caught 35 passes for 677 yards in the final 8 games of the season. However, injuries to Roethlisberger and his own personal injuries slowed him down in the 2nd half of last season. Still, he doesn’t have a history of injury issues and he’s the clear #1 receiver now. He’s never really been a touchdown guy, catching just 7 touchdowns in his first 3 seasons in the league, but with Mike Wallace gone that should change.

Projection: 78 catches for 1030 receiving yards 7 touchdowns (145 pts standard, 223 pts PPR)

WR Emmanuel Sanders (Pittsburgh)

Emmanuel Sanders moves into the starting lineup as the clear #2 receiver on an offense that usually is productive in fantasy leagues for wide receivers. He’s got some talent and has shown it at times over the first few years of his career as a reserve. There’s some value here.

Projection: 51 catches for 750 receiving yards 4 touchdowns (99 pts standard, 150 pts PPR)

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2013 Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Ravens, Uncategorized

QB Joe Flacco (Baltimore)

7/28/13: Anquan Boldin was Joe Flacco’s leading receiver last year and Dennis Pitta was the guy who was supposed to step up as the top complement to 3rd year deep threat Torrey Smith. Now Pitta is out for the season with Boldin gone and it’s just Torrey Smith and a bunch of question marks in the receiving corps. Flacco will make do because that’s what good quarterbacks do. He might not have a secondary go to receiver, but he’ll throw the ball around and I do believe that a full season of Bryant McKinnie at left tackle and Jim Caldwell at offensive coordinator will help him and that he should be able to maintain some of his post-season gains. But I’m obviously knocking down a bit with Pitta done for the year.

Throughout his 5 year career, he’s been a very inconsistent week to week quarterback, but an incredibly consistent year to year quarterback, proving himself to be a slightly above average quarterback and nothing more. His completion percentages have always fallen between 57.6% and 63.1%. His YPAs have always fallen between 6.7 and 7.4. His touchdowns have always fallen between 20 and 25 (with the exception of his rookie year) and his interceptions have always fallen between 10 and 12. Of course, that all changed in the post-season and while I don’t expect him to keep that up, I do expect him to have his career best regular season this year.

Projection: 3900 passing yards 26 touchdowns 11 interceptions 70 rushing yards 2 touchdowns (257 pts standard, 309 pts 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Ray Rice (Baltimore)

Ray Rice’s 257 carries in 2012 were his lowest since 253, when Willis McGahee was still around. With Bernard Pierce coming on as a very capable backup, that number could be even lower this season. The good news, however, is that Rice averaged a career high 5.3 YPC in 2009 when his carries were lower and Pierce’s presence will help him stay fresh. Also with Anquan Boldin gone, expect Rice’s catch total to be closer to his career high of 78 than his 4-year low of 61 in 2010. The only concern is if the bigger Pierce starts taking away goal line carries, but there are no indications that will happen.

Projection: 240 carries for 1130 rushing yards 10 total touchdowns 75 catches for 650 yards (238 pts standard, 313 pts PPR)

RB Bernard Pierce (Baltimore)

Pierce came on big time down the stretch as a 3rd round pick rookie. Playoffs included, he rushed for 734 yards on 147 carries last year, a 5.0 YPC clip. In his final 12 games, including playoffs, he rushed for 586 yards on 117 carries. He’ll probably see about half of Rice’s carries, but because he doesn’t do much in the passing game, the only way he becomes a fantasy starter is if the ever durable Rice gets hurt or he starts stealing goal line carries. He’s still a very valuable handcuff and arguably the best backup running back in the NFL.

Projection: 130 carries 620 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 12 catches for 80 yards (100 pts standard, 112 pts PPR)

WR Torrey Smith (Baltimore)

7/28/13: Smith gets a stock up with Pitta going down because he’s really their only reliable receiver remaining. The Ravens are really hoping that the talented young receiver finally puts everything together and has a breakout year in his 3rd year in the league and even if he doesn’t take a big leap forward in terms of his play, he should have a much better statistical year based purely on the sheer number of targets he’ll receive.

The Ravens will need Torrey Smith to step up opposite him as the new #1 receiver with Anquan Boldin gone. Smith has flashed in his first two years in the league after the Ravens took him in the 2nd round in 2011, catching 50 passes for 841 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2011 and 49 passes for 855 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2012, but he’s yet to put it all together as a consistent receiver and something more than just an inconsistent deep threat. However, going into his 3rd year in the league, a year when young receivers typically breakout, he’s got a very good chance to. With Boldin gone, he should get a career high in targets and have his best statistical season, possibly going over 1000 yards.

Projection: 63 catches for 1100 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns (164 pts standard, 227 pts PPR)

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