2013 Week 3 NFL Picks

Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (2-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2)

I tweeted before Pittsburgh/Cincinnati that I could see the loser of the game still making the playoffs after starting 0-2 and I still feel Pittsburgh could sneak in, even after losing. It was a pretty competitive game either way. If David Paulson doesn’t fumble in field goal range in the 1st quarter and a tipped ball doesn’t turn into an interception in the 4th quarter, that could have been a completely different game.

The Steelers really need Le’Veon Bell to come back healthy and play well. He’s expected back this week, though probably in a limited role. Heath Miller is expected to return as well, but it’s unclear how limited he’ll be in his first game back from a torn ACL suffered last December. Right now, their offense doesn’t make any sense, as they have no running game, a deep throw quarterback, speed receivers, an overmatched offensive coordinator who loves short throws, and an offensive line that can’t block. That could be a different story this week as their health improves.

Fortunately, the defense looks like one of the better units in the NFL thanks to the return of Troy Polamalu healthy. They should remain a tough defense going forward and I find it hard to believe they’ll be the 3rd least efficient offense in the NFL (in terms of moving the chains) all season, so I haven’t completely given up on them, especially in an AFC North that looks clear as mud right now.

This week, they face an NFC North team which is a different monster, but it’s not like Chicago is that great of a team. I don’t believe that the Bears deserve to be 2.5 point favorites here in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers have been home dogs just 6 times in the Ben Roethlisberger era, going 3-1-2 ATS. I also don’t believe that the Steelers are going to start this season 0-3. At the same time, I’m not confident in them at all right now.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Chicago Bears 16 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +2.5

Confidence: None

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Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (1-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-0)

The way young players have stepped up on what was previously a horrible defense has to be very exciting for Saints fans. Cameron Jordan, back at his collegiate position for 5-technique end, is playing like one of the best in the game, while Junior Galette, Akiem Hicks, and rookie John Jenkins are also playing well. The offense is going to score points. There’s no concern there. But if they can stop teams at even an average rate, they’re going to be tough to beat. Almost every year a team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. The Saints are the obvious front runner to do so right now.

The Saints didn’t move the ball that well last week because they played outdoors and in the rain, but back at home, inside, with no weather element, Drew Brees should be as deadly as he usually is. I really hate to bet against the Saints in the Superdome, where they’ve won 10 straight, both straight up and against the spread, under Sean Payton. However, I’m not that confident in the Saints -7.5 because the Cardinals are a team that I think will be competitive this season and one that can definitely mount a backdoor cover with all of their talented wide receivers and a great garbage time quarterback in Carson Palmer.

New Orleans Saints 30 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against spread: New Orleans -7.5

Confidence: None

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St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (1-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

Trends wise, the Cowboys are in a bad situation this week. St. Louis is road dogs after a road loss, a situation teams are 88-52 ATS since 2008. Teams cover about 65% of the time in this situation historically as well, no matter what year you use to cut off the sample. The Cowboys, meanwhile, struggle as home favorites since the opening of the new Cowboys Stadium in 2009. Excluding Thanksgiving home games, when they usually cover no matter what, they are 8-17 ATS as home favorites of 3 or more since 2009. It doesn’t have to do with the stadium, but considering the key personnel hasn’t changed much since 2009, this is relevant.

However, I think this line is way too low. This line at -3.5 suggests the Cowboys are barely better than the Rams, which is not true in my opinion. The Cowboys are still my pick to win the NFC East. They barely lost in Kansas City last week, but there’s no shame in that. They’ve fixed the turnover problems that plagued them last year, as I expected they would, going from -13 last year to +3 through 2 games. Their defense is improved under Monte Kiffin, allowing opponents to convert just 71.4% of first and 10s for a subsequent first down, better than the average team allows. They will only get better as guys like Anthony Spencer get healthier and guys like George Selvie and Nick Hayden have stepped up big time in place of guys with injury.

The Rams, meanwhile, I predicted to 6-10 at the start of the season. They went 7-8-1 last season, but I don’t think they match that, even with their increase in talent level. If they didn’t add all they added this off-season, they would have been even worse. Teams that have big win improvements like the Rams did last season usually regress about half of that improvement the following season. There are unsustainable things about the Rams’ 2012 season.

They were 6th in the league in adjusted games lost, meaning they had significantly fewer injuries than the league average. This was a season after they ranked dead last in that category in 2011. They also exceeded their Pythagorean Expectations by a whole win (assuming a half win for the tie) as they were outscored by 49 points on the season and had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6.5 wins, 23rd in the NFL. They’re not barely worse than the Cowboys this season. Part of my 6 win projection for them had to do with a hard schedule and I probably would have predicted 8-8 for them in the NFC East, but it’s not like Dallas it’s a hard opponent. I’m not putting anything on it though.

Dallas Cowboys 24 St. Louis Rams 20

Pick against spread: Dallas -3.5

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (1-1) at Denver Broncos (2-0)

I think a lot of people have forgotten how awful the Raiders were supposed to be coming into this season and I don’t understand why. They did almost beat the Colts in Indianapolis week 1, but the Colts won 7 games by 7 points or less against 7 win or worse teams last year, including the 2-14 Chiefs. The Colts then followed that up by losing at home to Miami. The Raiders then beat the Jaguars in Oakland last week 19-9 in a game that was actually more lopsided than the final score would suggest, but I don’t know how impressive that is. Jacksonville is definitely worse than the Raiders, but you can really say that about any other team, considering how awful the Raiders were seen to be coming into the season, and for good reason.

I think that will get exposed this week against Denver in a blowout loss and even though this line is -15.5, I feel like it would be closer to -18 a couple of weeks ago, especially considering how well the Broncos have started the season. Peyton Manning should move the ball with ease against a defense filled with generally replacement level players, especially with Tyvon Branch out as well, and put Terrelle Pryor into the kind of obvious passing situations he hasn’t been in thus far this season and that will expose him. Manning has been especially good under the national television lights in his career, going 19-6 ATS on Thursday or Monday Night in his career. I have no problem laying the 15.5 here.

Denver Broncos 37 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against spread: Denver -15.5

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1)

It’s really early, but the Jets have the best defense in the NFL, by far, in terms of preventing their opponent from moving the chains. They’ve allowed just 51.2% of first and 10s to be converted for a subsequent first down. Getting Tampa Bay week 1 and then a Thursday Night Game in the rain week 2 definitely helps, but you have to be impressed with how their defense played against the Patriots last week, even if Tom Brady was working with arguably the worst receiving corps of his career that night. Nose tackle Damon Harrison and middle linebacker Demario Davis have been breakout stars through 2 weeks.

The Bills have also done some impressive things this season and I don’t think either of these teams are quite as bad as we expected them to be before the season, but I like the fact that we’re getting the Jets as very short favorites at home. They aren’t moving the chains offensively, converting 62.7% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent first down, but because of how well they are doing defensively, they ranked 3rd in the NFL in that differential in this early season. The Bills, meanwhile, rank 24th. The Jets also have an extended week to recover and game plan for the Bills, coming off Thursday Night Football. There’s a very good chance the Jets hold the Bills to close to single digits and win an ugly one.

New York Jets 16 Buffalo Bills 9

Pick against spread: NY Jets -1.5

Confidence: Low

San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

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San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)

These two teams have had eerily similar starts to their season. Both have almost beaten the Texans in what was seen as a “surprise,” even though the Texans haven’t really been that good since the middle of last season. Both also pulled upset wins in Pennsylvania against a team that might not have been as good as we thought they were at the time. Still, both of these teams have exceeded expectations thus far this season.

They also rank 18th and 20th (Tennessee and San Diego respectively) in terms of how frequently they convert 1st and 10 for a subsequent set of first downs, as opposed to how frequently they allow their opponents to do so. The Titans are doing it with defense, allowing opponents to convert 68.4% of their first and 10s for a subsequent set of downs, while the Chargers are doing it with offense, converting 82.5% of first and 10s for a subsequent set of downs. At the same time, the Titans’ offense has been miserable, while the Chargers’ defense can’t stop anyone.

The question here is which of these teams, if any, is for real, at least in terms of being a pseudo-playoff contender in the weaker AFC. I think we’ll have a better idea of that after the game, but that doesn’t do us any good before the game. However, I feel that the Titans are for real, while the Chargers aren’t. For one, I think the Titans are more overall talented. They had 7 of my pre-season top-200 players, while the Chargers had just 1, including none on offense. The reason they’re moving the ball so well is because Philip Rivers seems to be having a resurgence and that could continue, but his offensive supporting cast is really not that good, so I don’t expect the Chargers to continue to be this efficient offensively.

The Titans’ defense, meanwhile, could continue to do this. They were dead last in points per game allowed last season, but they ranked 8th in 2011 with essentially the same personnel. They were one of the wild cards of this season for me for that reason and it’s very possible they are playing much closer to how they played in 2011 defensively than 2012. If that continues, they will continue to be a tough team to beat, even if Jake Locker continues throwing his name into the group of 2011 1st round quarterback busts with Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder.

For that reason, I think the Titans win here and cover a 3 point spread at home (which traditionally means two teams are even). However, I’m not that confident because the Titans are in a rough situation playing their home opener during week 3. Since 1989, teams that have played their week 3 game at home after starting the season with back to back road games are just 20-40 ATS. Starting the year on the road like that takes so much out of you. They should still be the right side though.

Tennessee Titans 20 San Diego Chargers 15

Pick against spread: Tennessee -3

Confidence: Low

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New York Giants at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (0-2) at Carolina Panthers (0-2)

The Panthers are now 2-14 since 2011 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Part of my reasoning for them having a big season was that their record in close games would even out, as it always does in the long run, but it’s very possible that won’t happen this year. They need to fire Ron Rivera. They should have done it last off-season (can you imagine how good they’d with be Chip Kelly, you know his #1 choice would have been working with Cam Newton?).

You can’t put the entire 2-14 record in close games on him, but he has to take the blame. Last week, the reason they lost on their final drive was because they only had 4 healthy defensive backs, but you could also blame Rivera for opting to kick a field goal to push the lead to 6 rather than trying to ice it on 4th and 1 late. Instead of putting his faith in his expensive running game or his great short yardage quarterback, he put his faith in a defense that literally didn’t have enough healthy bodies to be successful.

Also, because Rivera is a defensive Head Coach, the bulk of the offensive responsibilities have fallen on offensive coordinator Mike Shula, who is doing a terrible job in his first season in that position. That’s a big part of the reason why the Panthers have struggled to move the ball early on this season. Cam Newton did not pick up where he left off last season, completing 60.7% of his passes, but for just 5.8 YPA in this unnecessarily conservative offense, with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. He’s also taken off running just 9 times for 53 yards. Only 20 of Newton’s 61 pass attempts have gone more than 10 yards through the air and the new offensive system has to be blamed for that.

Fortunately, it’s not all bad news, as the defense has picked up where it left off, when it allowed 21.2 points per game in the final 12 games of last season. After holding the Seahawks to 12 in their opener, they held Buffalo to 17 last week, before that final drive, in which, of course, they didn’t have enough healthy defensive backs.

The Panthers will have enough healthy defensive backs this week, unless they have another rash of in game injuries, but they are literally using replacement level talent in the secondary throughout this week, with Charles Godfrey done for the season, Josh Norman and Quintin Mikell out for this one, and Josh Thomas also possibly out. Their secondary was not very talented to begin with, but this just makes things even worse. Their tremendous front 7 has been masking their putrid back 4 over the past 2 seasons and they could continue to do so this week, but they’ll have their work cut out for them.

If the Panthers bounce back offensively and hold it together defensively, they could play well enough that this won’t need to be a close game and there’s always the possibility that they finally are able to win a close one, but I don’t know how likely the best case scenario is for the Panthers this week. The Giants, meanwhile, come into this game 0-2 as well, largely because of a -8 turnover margin that is by far the league’s worst this season. Fortunately, this type of stuff is pretty inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams that have a -4 turnover margin one week average about +0 the following week and the same thing for a team that previously had a +4 turnover margin.

They also tend to be a very good team on the road, going 47-33 SU and 50-30 ATS on the road since 2004, as opposed to 44-33 SU and 37-40 ATS at home in that same time period. They also usually start seasons well, so I find it hard to believe they’ll start this season 0-3. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, the same season as Eli Manning became the starter, the Giants are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 30-42 in the second 8 games of the season.

I also like the Giants in a situation where they’re being doubted, though I’d like them better if they were dogs and facing an opponent that was publicly perceived as better than the Panthers. The public is also placing everything they have on the Giants. Combine that with the possibility that the Panthers actually break out this week and I’m nervous to bet either side. The Giants should be the right side, but I’m not confident.

New York Giants 23 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against spread: NY Giants -1.5

Confidence: None

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Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)

I feel like I say this every week, but Andy Dalton is 1-11 in his career against future playoff teams in his first two years in the league, completing 250 of 445 (56.2%) for 2934 yards (6.6 YPA), 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, including two post-season losses. In his other 22 games, he’s 420 of 679 (61.9%) for 4518 yards (6.7 YPA), 35 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions, going 18-4.

Thus far this year, he’s lost to a borderline playoff team in Chicago and beat a maybe not even borderline playoff team in Pittsburgh. Against Chicago, he played better than he usually does against that caliber of opponent, completing 26 of 33 for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns, but he also threw 2 back-breaking interceptions, which is a big part of why they were unable to win.

Against Pittsburgh, still a tough defense regardless of whether or not they make the post-season this year, Dalton struggles, as he has against the Steelers throughout his career, completing 25 of 45 for 280 yards and a touchdown. He managed the game well and avoided the back breaking turnover that cost him in Chicago the week before, but he also missed open receivers and was very reliant on his receivers’ abilities after the catch.

Green Bay this week is a more clearly a playoff team than either of their first two opponents, which is relevant considering this line is less than 3. Green Bay essentially just needs to win here and I think they have a very good chance of doing so. The Packers could have won in San Francisco and they bounced back to demolish the Redskins at home. Aaron Rodgers is playing incredible football right now, completing 55 of 79 (69.6%) for 813 yards (10.3 YPA), 7 touchdowns, and 1 interception (which wasn’t his fault), while leading the Packers to 51 first downs to 9 punts. While the Redskins defense isn’t very good, the 49ers’ defense certainly is and he still shredded them.

Cincinnati has a great defense and overall supporting cast, but that might only serve the Bengals to keep the Packers out of the 30s. They’re going to have to win a shootout if they’re going to win this game and I don’t think that’s something they’re capable of. Dalton is just 2-11 in his career when his defense allows 21 or more points, a situation teams, on average, win 26.8% of the time since Dalton came into the league in 2011. The Packers, meanwhile, have gone over 21 points in 62 of 74 games since the start of the 2009 season. The Packers should be able to take this one.

Green Bay Packers 27 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against spread: Green Bay -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-0)

Ordinarily, I don’t like laying 19 points, but in this case, I think this line is completely justified, if not too low. The Seahawks aren’t quite as good at home as their 29-3 win over the 49ers would suggest. If you played that game 100 games, the average margin of victory would not be 26, but it would probably be at least 7-10, which is impressive in of itself against a very high quality team like the 49ers. They’ve won all 9 of their home games over the last 2 seasons and done so by an average score of 30-11.

Considering their average margin of victory has been 19, there’s no reason they shouldn’t be favored by 19 over a Jacksonville team that looks like clearly the worst team in the NFL. After essentially being shutout at home by the Chiefs week 1 (their 2 points came on a safety by the defense), they lost 19-9 in Oakland, in a game that was 19-3 before garbage time. They barely had over 100 yards of total offense before garbage time against a defense that came into the season as one of the worst in the NFL. Overall on the season, they’ve converted 55.1% of first and 10s for a subsequent first, 15.1% less than their opponents have, the worst disparity in the NFL. Before garbage time in Oakland, they actually had more punts than first downs. They’re going to have a very hard time moving the ball against the Seahawks.

If anything the Seahawks are playing better of late. They’ve won 10 of their last 12 overall dating back to the middle of last season, as Russell Wilson has completed 195 of 297 (65.7%) for 2686 yards (9.0 YPA), 21 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. They’ve outscored opponents by an average of 16.7 points per game over last 12 games overall, including 25.2 points per game at home.

The Seahawks home dominance is nothing new though. Going back to 2007, they are 16-37 on the road, getting outscored by 6.42 points per game, and 33-18 at home, outscoring opponents by 6.71 points per game. They are 35-15 ATS at home in that span. They’re even better as big home favorites, going 9-3 ATS as touchdown favorites over that time span, including 5-1 ATS as 10+ point favorites. I have no problem laying the 19 here. This is going to be a bloodbath. The Seahawks are also my survivor pick.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Seattle -19

Confidence: Medium

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Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (1-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-1)

The 49ers lost in Seattle last week 29-3, but there’s no shame at all losing to the Seahawks in Seattle. Dating back to the start of last season, the Seahawks have won all 9 home games by an average score of 30-11. They should be able to bounce back this week, as they have every time after a loss since Jim Harbaugh took over before the 2011 season. The 49ers are 5-2 ATS off a loss in that time span, 7-2 ATS if you include week 1 games (games after a season ending playoff loss).

If you look closer, that’s even more impressive as those two non-covers included a 14 point win as 16.5 point favorites and a 7 point win as 7.5 point favorites, a game they would have covered against the Seahawks if Jim Harbaugh hadn’t declined a safety, in favor of just running the clock out. They’ve won those 7 games by an average margin of about 17 points per game, 23-6. They should be as motivated as they can be this week coming off of a loss and they might also be a little overlooked and undervalued after what happened this week.

The Colts, meanwhile, have had a lot of trouble against playoff caliber opponents over the past 2 seasons. Last year, they played 7 games against teams who finished .500 or better. They went 3-4 in those games, which isn’t awful, but those wins came by 3, 3, and 12, while the losses came by 20, 35, 12, and 15. They went as good as their 11-5 record would have suggested last season, because of all of those blowout losses (plus a 35-9 loss to the freaking Jets!) and because they had 7 wins by 7 points or less against teams that won 7 or fewer games. They were especially bad on the road last season, going 4-5 on the road with a point differential of -76 and an opponent’s overall record of 64-80.

They haven’t really looked any better this season, barely beating the Raiders at home and then losing to the Dolphins at home, a game in which they lost one of their only good offensive linemen, Donald Thomas, for the season. They will get Trent Richardson in this week through trade, but he’s unlikely to have much of an impact less than a week after joining this team. He might not even play on passing downs as he learns the blocking schemes, especially with Ahmad Bradshaw, one of the league’s premier passing down backs, behind him on the depth chart. Richardson will have an impact going forward, but the Colts should still get blown out this week by the 49ers.

San Francisco 49ers 27 Indianapolis Colts 9

Pick against spread: San Francisco -9.5

Confidence: Medium

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