2015 NFL Free Agency

Philadelphia Eagles trade QB Nick Foles to the St. Louis Rams for QB Sam Bradford

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, Rams, Uncategorized

Trade for Eagles: It’s not often that a team downgrades it’s starting quarterback. It’s even less often that a team does that while simultaneously hurting their draft position, but the Eagles managed to do both of those things in this trade. Foles looked like a future star in 2013 when the 2012 3rd round pick completed 64.0% of his passes for an average of 9.12 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Foles regressed mightily in 2014 though, completing 59.8% of his passes for an average of 6.96 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.

Much of Foles’ strong production in 2013 was as a result of the scheme, as he only graded out 17th at his position on Pro Football Focus. As you can imagine, that slipped to 25th out of 39 eligible in 2014, barely better than backup Mark Sanchez (27th), who made 8 starts in Foles’ absence. The Eagles moved the chains at a 72.34% rate with Nick Foles and a 72.49% rate with Mark Sanchez. The fact that their offense wasn’t significantly worse with Sanchez under center is a concern for Foles. However, what Foles did in 2013 is still more impressive than anything Bradford has done in his career, he’s younger (age 28 vs age 26), and he’s significantly less injury prone. Bradford has completed 58.6% of his passes for an average of 6.29 YPA, 59 touchdowns, and 38 interceptions, missed 25 straight games because of a twice torn ACL, and missed 41 of 93 games dating back to his final season at Oklahoma. Bradford is also owed over 12 million dollars more this season than what Foles was owed.

When I first saw this trade, I assumed that the Eagles had improved their draft position in the trade, perhaps moving up from 20th to 10th in the first round, as was originally erroneously reported by several sources. That would have made some sense as 10 would have given the Eagles an easier spot to move up to get Heisman winner Marcus Mariota, who they have been linked to all off-season because of the Chip Kelly/Oregon connection. A trade of the 10th overall pick and Bradford to the Jets for the 6th overall pick could have gotten the Eagles Mariota, as would have a trade of the 10th overall pick, a 2nd round pick, some later picks, and Bradford to Tennessee for the 2nd overall pick, if they really wanted to be safe.

Instead, the Rams hurt their draft position significantly with this trade. They give up a 4th round pick this year, a 2nd round pick next year, and get back a 5th round pick this year and maybe a mid-round pick next year depending on whether or not Bradford gets injured again and how many games he plays for them next season. It’s possible that Chip Kelly never intended to move up for Mariota and that Bradford was his plan all along. He said in a recent press conference that he wouldn’t mortgage the future to move up for Mariota and that Bradford will be his guy in 2015. Even if that’s true, he still overpaid for him.

Kelly also said that the Eagles were offered a 1st round pick for Bradford. That would make this trade make more sense if it was true and if someone gives them that the Eagles would be absolutely fleecing them in a trade. The amount of team’s with unresolved quarterback issues whose situation would be made easier by trading a first round pick for Bradford isn’t very high though and it’s very possible that Kelly saying that is wishful thinking and he’s trying to drum up trade interest. This is a confusing situation and it’s tough to know what’s going on and it’s tough to grade this for that reason. If the Eagles can somehow get a first round pick for Bradford later on, they’d absolutely be winners of that trade, but for right now, it looks like they really messed up.

Grade: D

Trade for Rams: As I mentioned, it’s tough to know what kind of quarterback Foles is going to be in this league. His 2013 was great, but largely the result of the system and he struggled in 2014. However, he’s still better, less injury prone, cheaper, and younger than Bradford and the Rams improve their draft position in each of the next 2 drafts with this deal. Given all of that, they’re very clearly the winner of this trade.

Grade: A

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New Orleans Saints sign CB Brandon Browner

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Saints, Uncategorized

It’s a common narrative that Brandon Browner is a good cornerback. After all, he’s the only play in the NFL to win each of the last 2 Super Bowls, as he was on the Seahawks in 2013 and the Patriots in 2014. Plus, he’s so big (6-4 221)! Well, he didn’t even play past week 10 for the Seahawks in 2013 because of suspension and he’s one performance enhancing drug suspension away from at least a year long ban, which has to be a red flag on his resume.

In 2014, the Patriots won the Super Bowl in spite of him as he graded out below average, thanks in large part to the 15 penalties he committed in 9 games, 19 penalties in 12 games if you include the playoffs, after he missed the start of the season with the rest of that suspension. The only thing Browner seems to like more than getting in trouble with the league for performance enhancing drugs is getting in trouble with the refs for various holding and pass interference calls that extend opponent’s drives.

His penalty problem isn’t a new thing either as he’s committed 48 penalties in 50 career games, including playoffs. That problem isn’t going to get better as he goes into his age 31 season, in a league that is getting increasingly tough on coverage penalties. Browner graded out above average in each of his first 3 seasons in the NFL from 2011-2013, after starting his career in the CFL, but I think his best days are behind him, especially since he’s never had a good season outside of Seattle’s system. The Saints obviously needed cornerback help, but they overpaid by giving him 15 million over 3 years with 7.75 million guaranteed.

Grade: C

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New York Jets sign CB Buster Skrine

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jets, Uncategorized

Forget about the fact that the Jets are giving 6.25 million dollars annually over 4 years (4-year, 25 million) and 13 million guaranteed to a cornerback who will be their #3 cornerback and play about 50-60% of the snaps, following the signings of Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. That’s a weird move, but, on top of that, Skrine isn’t very good. Just ask Browns fans, who generally seem to be glad he’s gone, or the Browns themselves, who made little to no effort to bring him back this off-season, even with a ton of available cap space. Less than a year ago, they used a 1st round pick on Justin Gilbert to replace him long-term. They knew Skrine wasn’t a starting caliber player.

Skrine made 37 starts in 4 seasons with the Browns, after they drafted him in the 5th round in 2011, and started 31 of 32 games over the past 2 seasons. He was never good though, grading out below average in all 4 seasons, with his worst year coming in 2013, when he graded out 105th out of 110 eligible, leading the position in both missed tackles and touchdowns allowed. His 2014 campaign was better, but only by default, as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 82nd ranked cornerback out of 108 eligible, thanks largely to the whopping 17 penalties he committed. There’s no way he deserved to be making this kind of money. This is one of the off-season’s worst overpays.

Grade: F

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New York Jets sign CB Antonio Cromartie

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jets, Uncategorized

The Jets are partying like it’s 2011 this off-season, bringing back both Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie through free agency, a duo that played together from 2010-2012 and started all 16 for the Jets in 2011, in an effort to fix their poor secondary. Both are obviously older now, as they are both going into an age 30+ season. While I really liked the Revis more, I like this move a lot less, as the Jets gave Cromartie a 4-year, 32 million dollar deal.

Cromartie was cut by the Jets’ old John Idzik/Rex Ryan regime last off-season after a nagging hip injury caused him to grade out 102nd out of 110 eligible cornerbacks in 2013. Given that he was owed 9.5 million dollars non-guaranteed, it was absolutely the right move. The common narrative is that Cromartie, who graded out above average in every season from 2009-2012, bounced back in 2014 in his one season in Arizona under defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, who is the Jets’ new Head Coach. That’s only half true though as, while Cromartie was dominant to start the season, he was horrible in the 2nd half of the season thanks to a nagging ankle injury and ended up grading out below average overall.

Cromartie has been incredibly durable throughout his career in terms of games played as he’s missed just 1 game with injury in 9 seasons in the league, but the hip problem slowed him down significantly in 2013 and the ankle problem slowed him down significantly last season. As he goes into his age 31 season, it’s definitely a concern that his body is starting to break down. Cromartie last graded out above average in 2012 so giving him 8 million dollars annually on a 4-year deal as he heads into his age 31 season seems like an overpay.

Grade: C

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Kansas City Chiefs sign G Paul Fanaika

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Fanaika is a big, physical guard at 6-5 327, but he’s really struggled as a starter over the last 2 seasons in Arizona. After the 2009 7th round pick played no snaps in the first 4 seasons of his career, Fanaika started 30 games over the past 2 seasons, but he wasn’t good, grading out 76th out of 81 eligible guards in 2013 and 71st out of 78 eligible guards in 2014. The Chiefs don’t seem to have watched his tape from the last 2 seasons, as the money they are paying him (3 years, 8.1 million) suggests they view him as a starter at right guard for 2015. He’ll face competition from Zach Fulton, who was Pro Football Focus’ 64th ranked guard out of 78 eligible in 2014 as a 6th round rookie at left guard, and Jeff Allen, a natural left guard who graded out 60th out of 81 eligible in 2013 and missed all of 2014 with an injury. Right guard will probably continue to be a position of weakness for the Chiefs upfront in 2015. This isn’t a ton of money, but Fanaika still isn’t worth this.

Grade: C-

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Arizona Cardinals sign G Mike Iupati

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Cardinals, Uncategorized

The 49ers drafted Mike Iupati 17th overall in 2010 and many saw him as one of the top guard prospects of the decade. He hasn’t quite lived up those expectations, but he’s still been a very good guard, grading out in the top-14 at his position on Pro Football Focus in 4 of the 5 seasons he’s been in the league, with the exception coming in an injury plagued 2013, when he still graded out above average. Despite that injury plagued 2013 season, he’s missed just 4 games in 5 seasons, all coming in 2013. One concern is that, while he’s annually one of the top run blocking guards in the NFL, he has graded out below average as a pass protector in 3 of 5 seasons so, as talented as he is, he’s not that well-rounded and he does have a glaring weakness.

I like the fit in Arizona where he will stay at left guard and be a huge upgrade over Ted Larsen, who started 16 games for them at left guard last season and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 68th ranked guard out of 78 eligible. However, the price seems high as he will make 40 million over 5 years with 22.5 million of that guaranteed. This deal makes him the 3rd highest paid guard in the NFL in terms of average salary, a lot for someone with his inconsistencies in pass protection. Given that Orlando Franklin, who I think is a better all-around player, got 36.5 million over 5 years from the Chargers with 20 million guaranteed, this isn’t a great value, but it’s not a bad deal either.

Grade: B-

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San Francisco 49ers sign WR Torrey Smith

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, 49ers, Uncategorized

If you can’t beat them, take their receivers I guess. The 49ers now have both of the Ravens’ starting wide receivers from when the Ravens beat them in the Super Bowl two years ago. Torrey Smith has played all 64 games since he’s been in the NFL, starting the last 62 of them, and he’s been decently productive with 213 catches for 3591 yards and 30 touchdowns. Only going into his age 26 season, Smith is a fantastic deep threat, but he’s not particularly good at anything else. He’s still an inconsistent route runner and has caught just 117 passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He’s also never graded out higher than 37th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in any of his 4 seasons in the league.

I expected him to be paid somewhere in the range of what Golden Tate (5-year, 31 million with 13.25 million guaranteed) and Eric Decker (5-year, 36.25 million with 15 million guaranteed) got last off-season. I also thought that either of those deals would be an overpay. Instead, Smith exceeded both of those contract, getting 40 million over 5 years with 22 million guaranteed. This is way too much money for someone of Smith’s skill set as he’s more of a complementary receiver than a #1 guy. I like the fit of Smith in San Francisco, filling a wide receiver need and complementing Colin Kaepernick’s arm strength and Anquan Boldin’s possession ability well with his speed and deep ball ability, but not at this price.

Grade: C

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New York Giants sign OLB JT Thomas

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Giants, Uncategorized

Thomas, a 2011 5th round pick, played 202 snaps in his first 3 seasons in the league before being forced to make 10 starts in 2014 because Paul Posluszny missed significant time with a torn pectoral. He predictably struggled, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 55th ranked middle linebacker out of 60 eligible, with no one playing fewer snaps at the position and grading out worse. For whatever reason, the Giants are giving him a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal with 4.5 million guaranteed in the first season, paying him like a starting linebacker and naming him a starter at outside linebacker. They had a need at the position, but this isn’t the right move.

Grade: D

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Houston Texans trade QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to the New York Jets

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jets, Texans, Uncategorized

Trade for Texans: I gave the Texans a bad grade for signing Brian Hoyer and re-signing Ryan Mallett because I thought they should have went into 2015 with Ryan Fitzpatrick as the starting quarterback. That might sound weird, especially since Fitzpatrick is going into his age 33 season and got benched once last season for Mallett, but Fitzpatrick is coming off of the best season of his career and did not deserve to get benched or traded, especially at a salary of just 3.25 million. In the 11 games he started and finished, the Texans moved the chains at a 71.90% rate, as opposed to 66.06% in their other 5 games, when Fitzpatrick was out with a broken leg.

I liked how Fitzpatrick fit in Bill O’Brien’s scheme. He was Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked quarterback last season, completing 63.1% of his passes for an average of 7.96 YPA, and a 17:8 TD:INT ratio, all career bests. He graded out below average in every season from 2008-2012, with Buffalo and Cincinnati, but he’s graded out above average in each of the last 2 seasons, showing to be a bit of a late bloomer and a great fit from Bill O’Brien’s offense. He’s coming off a broken leg that ended his 2015 season prematurely, but he’s still better than Mallett and Hoyer. However, once the Texans brought in Hoyer and Mallett, they kind of had to make this move, so I’m not giving them a terrible grade. I would have liked to have seen them get something a little bit more than a conditional 7th round pick though, after the solid season Fitzpatrick had in 2014.

Grade: B-

Trade for Jets: As I’ve said, I like what Fitzpatrick did in 2014 and I think he’s showing himself to be a bit of a late bloomer over the past 2 seasons. At a salary of 3.25 million and the price of a conditional 7th round pick, added Fitzpatrick is a very good move for the Jets and he’ll be an immediate upgrade over Geno Smith. However, my one concern is that this trade reunites Fitzpatrick with Chan Gailey, formerly his Head Coach in Buffalo and now the Jets’ offensive coordinator.

Usually I like when players reunite with former coaches because of the familiarity aspect, but Fitzpatrick never did very well under Gailey’s tutelage as some of those poor seasons earlier in his career were with Gailey. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 29th ranked quarterback out of 37 eligible in 2010, 26th out of 38 eligible in 2011, and 35th out of 38 eligible in 2012, the three seasons he played under Chan Gailey. It’s possible he still continues to play solid football in 2015 with the Jets, but the risk of him regressing back with Gailey exists. They definitely won this trade though.

Grade: A-

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Houston Texans sign QB Brian Hoyer and re-sign QB Ryan Mallett

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Texans, Uncategorized

These are obviously separate deals, but I feel like I have to grade them together. Both deals are pretty appropriate values, as Hoyer gets 10.5 million over 2 years with 4.75 million guaranteed, while Mallett gets 7 million over 2 years with 1.75 million guaranteed. However, the fact that the Texans signed both of them essentially ended Ryan Fitzpatrick’s tenure in Houston (he was traded to the Jets for a 7th round pick right after these deals became official). I don’t like the Texans’ decision to move forward with both of these guys instead of one of them and Fitzpatrick.

It might sound weird, especially since Fitzpatrick is going into his age 33 season and got benched once last season for Mallett, but Fitzpatrick is coming off of the best season of his career and did not deserve to get benched or traded, especially at a salary of just 3.25 million. In the 11 games he started and finished, the Texans moved the chains at a 71.90% rate, as opposed to 66.06% in their other 5 games, when Fitzpatrick was out with a broken leg. I liked how Fitzpatrick fit in Bill O’Brien’s scheme. He was Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked quarterback last season, completing 63.1% of his passes for an average of 7.96 YPA, and a 17:8 TD:INT ratio, all career bests. He graded out below average in every season from 2008-2012, with Buffalo and Cincinnati, but he’s graded out above average in each of the last 2 seasons, showing to be a bit of a late bloomer and a great fit from Bill O’Brien’s offense. He’s coming off a broken leg that ended his 2015 season prematurely, but he’s still better than Mallett and Hoyer.

Meanwhile, Mallett had 4 career pass attempts in 3 seasons as a 2011 3rd round pick before coming to Houston and lasted just 2 games in 2014 before going down for the season with a torn pectoral. He actually played one of his starts with that torn pectoral and, as you can imagine, it was a trainwreck, as he completed 21 of 45 for 189 yards and an interception. He was better in his other start, completing 20 of 30 for 211 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an interception, but he’s still completely unproven.

Hoyer is more experienced, but he’s not much better. Hoyer had his moments in the first extended starting experience of his career in 2014, but ultimately proved to not be anything more than a solid backup caliber quarterback. He completed 55.3% of his passes for 7.59 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 35th ranked quarterback out of 39 eligible. The former undrafted free agent’s career numbers aren’t much different, as he’s completed 56.5% of his passes for an average of 7.23 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions on 630 career attempts. He and Mallett will compete for the starting job in Houston in 2015, with 2014 4th round pick Tom Savage as the 3rd guy, but I think the Texans made a mistake not giving Fitzpatrick the starting job for 2015.

Grade: D

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