2015 NFL Free Agency

Tampa Bay Buccaneers sign MLB Bruce Carter

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Given the size of this deal, 17 million over 4 years with 4.2 million guaranteed, suggests that the Buccaneers view Carter as a starter and an every down player. I think that’s a mistake based on his career play. The Cowboys drafted Bruce Carter in the 2nd round in 2011 despite the fact that he tore his ACL late in his final collegiate season at North Carolina. Carter was limited to 41 snaps as a rookie, but he looked on his way to a breakout 2nd season before a serious arm injury cut his season short. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 16th ranked middle linebacker on 625 snaps and 11 starts.

Moving back to his natural position of 4-3 outside linebacker in 2013, many expected him to have a great season, but he did the opposite, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 32nd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker out of 35 eligible. In 2014, he was limited to 8 starts in 13 games and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 34th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker out of 40 eligible. The potential he once appeared to have seems to have dissipated and he’s a borderline starting outside linebacker and an injury prone one at that, with 15 missed games in 4 seasons. This is an overpay.

The one thing that’s intriguing about this deal is that Carter could play middle linebacker in Tampa Bay, as the Buccaneers need an every down player at that spot, with Mason Foster expected to go elsewhere this off-season. They don’t need an every down outside linebacker because Lavonte David does that and the amount they’re paying him suggests they’re going to play him every down somewhere. Carter did play well at middle linebacker in 2012, but he’s never played inside in a 4-3. This contract is too much money to risk to find out anyway, even if there isn’t any guaranteed money beyond 2015.

Grade: C-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Oakland Raiders sign RB Roy Helu

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Raiders, Uncategorized

Roy Helu only has 255 carries in 4 seasons since the Redskins drafted him in the 4th round in 2011, but he’s averaged 4.44 yards per carry and where he really provides value is as a 3rd down back. In 48 career games, Helu has 129 catches for 1152 yards and 3 touchdowns and he’s been a top-5 pass blocking running back in 2 of the 4 seasons he’s been in the league, extremely valuable in today’s NFL. I like the fit of him in Oakland with unproven, but promising back Latavius Murray atop their depth chart. Helu can complement Murray as a passing down back and has a decent chance to surpass his career high of 151 carries.

This deal, which pays him 4 million over 2 years, is a solid value, given that Shane Vereen and Reggie Bush both got 4-year, 16 million dollar deals as passing down backs. Helu is younger than Bush and comparable to Vereen, with arguably more upside as a traditional runner. He’s less explosive, but he’s the better in between the tackles runner at 5-11 215. This is a smart, cheap pickup that had a chance to help the Raiders in 2015.

Grade: A

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Miami Dolphins sign TE Jordan Cameron

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Jordan Cameron had a breakout year in 2013, catching 80 passes for 917 yards and 7 touchdowns, after playing just 398 snaps and catching 26 passes in his first 2 seasons in the league. Cameron didn’t match that production in 2014 though, as he missed 6 games and caught just 24 passes for 424 yards and 2 touchdowns. Cameron heads into free agency as a one year wonder with a concerning concussion history and no full 16 game seasons played.

Even his 2013 season wasn’t as good as his numbers looked as he was fortunate enough to be on one of the pass heaviest teams in the NFL. His 1.47 yards per route run was 19th among eligible tight ends. Sure poor quarterback play hurt him, but I’d argue that the amount the Browns passed that season helped him more than his quarterback play hurt. After all, the Browns finished 11th in the NFL in passing yards that season. He’s also graded out below average as a run blocker in each of the last 3 seasons, including 60th out of 67 eligible in that facet in 2014.

I had him as a candidate to get overpaid this off-season and, sure enough, he did. This 7.5 million dollar annual salary is tied for 4th highest in the NFL. The thing I do like about this deal is it’s only a two-year deal (15 million total) and there’s likely no guaranteed money beyond 2015, so it’s relatively low risk long-term. However, if they’re choosing between signing Jordan Cameron and signing Charles Clay to a similar deal, they’re making a mistake.

Grade: C

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Arizona Cardinals sign MLB Sean Weatherspoon

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Cardinals, Uncategorized

The Cardinals will be hoping that Weatherspoon can provide insurance inside for Daryl Washington, who is still suspended by the NFL for drug use and domestic abuse. It’s been a steep drop off for Weatherspoon since he was Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in his 2nd year in the league in 2011 after being drafted in the 1st round in 2010. He’s played in just 20 of 48 games combined over the past 3 seasons, grading out below average in 2012 and 2013 and missing all of 2014 with a torn Achilles. 2011 remains the only season in his career that he’s played all 16 games and the only season in his career that he graded out above average as he missed 5 games as a rookie and graded out below average when on the field. He’s missed 33 games in 5 seasons. I thought he’d be a nice buy-low signing for a team on a one-year deal, but, much like the Falcons with Adrian Clayborn, I don’t think the Cardinals and buying quite low enough with this 1-year, 3.85 million dollar deal.

Grade: B-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Atlanta Falcons sign DE Adrian Clayborn

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Falcons, Uncategorized

Adrian Clayborn was a first round pick of the Buccaneers in 2011 and he had a decent rookie year, struggling mightily against the run, but getting good pass rush and overall grading out slightly below average on Pro Football Focus. The story of his career from there was injuries though, as he’s played just 20 games over the past 3 seasons. He missed all but 3 games in 2012 with a torn ACL, struggled mightily in his first year back in 2013, grading out 47th out of 52 eligible 4-3 defensive ends, and, just when there was optimism for his future again in 2014, he tore his biceps and missed all but 1 game. There’s still upside here and he’s a decent flier, but I don’t think the Falcons are buying quite low enough with this 1-year, 3 million dollar deal (another 1.5 million is available through incentives). If they’re expecting him to help their poor pass rush much, they’re probably going to be disappointed. Hopefully they still address this area with the 8th overall pick.

Grade: B

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Philadelphia Eagles sign CB Walter Thurmond

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, Uncategorized

Walter Thurmond got a 1-year, 3.5 million dollar deal from the Giants last off-season, but only played 2 games because of injury. Despite that, the Eagles have given him the same contract this off-season. Thurmond isn’t a bad player (I loved the move by the Giants last off-season when they made it), but I don’t like that out of principle. It’s hard to imagine anyone else was going to pay him this, especially since the injury he suffered last season just reinforced that he’s one of the most injury prone players in the NFL. Thurmond has played just 36 of a possible 80 games in 5 seasons in the league since the Seahawks drafted him in the 4th round in 2010. But Chip Kelly seems to have a thing for injury prone players and former Oregon Ducks.

I don’t hate signing Thurmond though. He’s shown upside, particularly in 2013, when he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 33rd ranked cornerback on a career high 480 snaps. He could end up being worth this deal, but I don’t think it’s a great value. I also don’t know where Thurmond will play in Philadelphia. His strength is the slot, as he ranked 7th in the NFL among eligible cornerbacks, allowing 0.85 yards per coverage snap on the slot on 229 snaps in 2013. However, the Eagles already have a talented slot cornerback in Brandon Boykin. If the Eagles are expecting Thurmond to be a starter for them opposite Byron Maxwell, they’re going to be very disappointed and, if the Eagles are paying him 3.5 million to be their 4th cornerback, they’re overpaying.

Grade: C+

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Denver Broncos sign G Shelley Smith

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Broncos, Uncategorized

This isn’t the Shelley Smith who is (used to be?) an unattractive female reporter for ESPN. This is the Shelley Smith that could easily be the Broncos’ starting left guard in 2015. The Broncos aren’t paying Smith much (5.65 million over 2 years), but it’s still too much for him (especially since the Dolphins cut him this off-season to save 2.75 million) and he’s not a starting caliber player. The Dolphins signed Shelley Smith to a 2-year, 5.5 million dollar deal last off-season, but he only played 367 snaps, despite terrible play on the Dolphins’ offensive line all season. Despite holes on the offensive line, the Dolphins cut him this off-season, even though his salary wasn’t that much. That’s because Smith himself was also terrible, grading out 54th out of 78 eligible despite the limited playing time.

Smith has maxed out at 371 snaps (in 2013) and played 1098 snaps total in his 5-year career. Smith flashed in 2013 on those 371 snaps, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 23rd ranked guard despite the limited playing time, so he’s flashed. However, in 2012, he graded out 55th out of 81 eligible on just 360 snaps and he was just a 6th round pick in 2010. He didn’t play a single offensive snap in the first 2 years of his career and, of course, he struggled last season. Broncos’ head coach Gary Kubiak was with the Texans when they drafted him in 2010 so maybe he thinks he’ll be a good fit for his blocking scheme, but the fact that he never played a snap for the Texans in 2010 and 2011 and was a final cut in 2012 suggests otherwise. Hopefully the Broncos add competition for him through the draft.

Grade: C+

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Atlanta Falcons sign OLB Brooks Reed

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Falcons, Uncategorized

Brooks Reed will boost the Falcons’ run defense, but he’s not the edge rusher they need and the edge rusher they’re paying him like, giving him 22.5 million over 5 years with 9 million guaranteed. Reed, a 2011 2nd round pick, has graded out above average in 3 of the 4 seasons he’s been in the league, making 54 starts in the process. The only exception was 2013, when he graded out 41st out of 42 eligible players. However, Reed has graded out negatively as a pass rusher in all 4 seasons, doing his best work against the run and, to a lesser extent, in coverage. The Falcons will probably play him in the Bruce Irvin role in their Seattle style defense and ask him to rush the passer off the edge in sub packages. That’s not his strength.

Grade: B-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Atlanta Falcons sign OLB Justin Durant

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Falcons, Uncategorized

Justin Durant was drafted in the 2nd round in 2007 and has quietly had a very solid career, grading out above average in 7 of the 8 seasons he’s been in the NFL. However, he’s averaged just 585 snaps per season, often playing as purely a two-down run stopper, a role he excels in. Over the past 2 seasons, he’s played just a combined 538 snaps (missing 16 of 32 games with injury) and he’s going into his age 30 season, coming off a torn biceps. Given that, the Falcons are overpaying a little bit with this 3-year, 10.8 million dollar deal, though only 3 million is guaranteed, but he could end up being worth it. I’m not sure he’s quite the every down linebacker they might ask him to be (either at outside linebacker or middle linebacker), but he’s showed a little bit in coverage over the past 2 seasons, grading out above average in both seasons in limited coverage snaps.

Grade: B

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Arizona Cardinals sign DE Corey Peters

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Cardinals, Uncategorized

Peters tore his Achilles in 2013 at the worst possible time, in a meaningless week 16 game, just before he was set to hit free agency. Peters was forced to settle for a cheap one year deal back in Atlanta in an attempt to rehab his value and he did a decent job. He played 15 games (except week 1 when he was kept out for precautionary reasons) and graded out about average on 535 snaps. Other than that Achilles tear, he doesn’t have a significant injury history, as he’s missed just 9 games in 5 seasons combined since the Falcons drafted him in the 3rd round in 2010.

Peters struggled in the first 3 seasons of his career, grading out below average in all 3 seasons, including a 2010 season in which he graded out 62nd out of 76 eligible and a 2012 season in which he graded out 83rd out of 85 eligible, but he’s graded out right about average in each of the last 2 seasons and he’s going into his age 27 season. He has experience playing both 4-3 defensive tackle and 3-4 defensive end in Mike Nolan’s hybrid scheme. He’ll play the latter here in Arizona. This is a solid value by the Cardinals, getting him on a 3-year, 10.5 million dollar deal with 5.75 million guaranteed. The Cardinals have now signed both Cory Redding and Corey Peters with the money they freed up by letting Darnell Dockett go. Those two will rotate opposite Calais Campbell at 3-4 defensive end and will be an upgrade for the Cardinals on the defensive line.

Grade: A-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]