2015 NFL Free Agency

Arizona Cardinals sign DE Cory Redding

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Cardinals, Uncategorized

Cory Redding was Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2014 and their 11th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2013. The problem is he’s going into his age 35 season, so it’s hard to trust him going forward. He ranked 27th out of 34 eligible in 2012 and could regress to that level in 2015 given his age. Still, he’s graded out above average in 3 of the last 4 seasons and the Cardinals are risking very little with this 2-year, 6 million dollar deal. He’s only guaranteed a 2 million dollar signing bonus and can be cut after the season with the Cardinals only having paid him 3 million over 1 year. Compare this to the 2-year, 7.5 million dollar deal with 4 million in the first year that Arizona’s divisional rival San Francisco gave to Darnell Dockett, an aging ex-Cardinal and a significantly inferior player, and this is a very solid deal.

Grade: A

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Buffalo Bills sign WR Percy Harvin

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bills, Uncategorized

I usually like one-year deals. They are obviously relatively low risk and they keep guys motivated. Often times, they can serve as wakeup calls to players as well. I think all three of those things are true of Percy Harvin’s deal with the Bills, but 6 million dollars on a one-year deal is still a fairly big bet. Harvin has seen his star fade significantly since the Seahawks sent a 1st round pick and a 3rd round pick to the Vikings for him two off-seasons ago and gave him a 6-year, 63 million dollar deal. The good news for Harvin is he got a ring out of the deal (along with a bunch of money), but that’s where the good news ends.

He missed all but 1 game with injury in Seattle in 2013, reportedly caused locker room problems that got him kicked out of Seattle (to the Jets for a 6th round pick), and combined for 51 catches for 483 yards and a touchdown in 2014 between the Seahawks and the Jets. The Jets, unable to work out a restructured contract with him, cut him this off-season, rather than paying him a non-guaranteed 10.5 million dollar salary for 2015. This 6 million dollar salary is obviously less than that, but it’s still too much for Harvin. Even in brighter times in Minnesota, he never went over 1000 yards in a season, missed 10 games in 4 seasons with injury, and had issues at times with his coaching staff. In Buffalo, he’ll re-join ex-Jets head coach Rex Ryan and be an upgrade on the slot over Chris Hogan.

Grade: C+

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Francisco 49ers sign RB Reggie Bush

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, 49ers, Uncategorized

Bush became a solid starter from 2011-2013 with the Dolphins and Lions, averaging 222 carries for 1026 yards and 5 touchdowns and 44 catches for 365 yards and 2 touchdowns over that time period. Those days appear behind him now though, as he heads into his age 30 season, coming off of a season where he was more of a complementary back behind Joique Bell. Bush rushed for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns on 76 carries (3.91 YPC) in 11 games and caught 40 passes for 253 yards. He fills a need at running back behind Carlos Hyde, but he’s an underwhelming signing at 2.5 million.

Grade: C

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Diego Chargers sign S Jimmy Wilson

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chargers, Uncategorized

It’s hard to love this move as it likely means Jimmy Wilson will likely be the starter in the secondary for the Chargers in 2015. He’ll play Marcus Gilchrist’s old role as a hybrid safety/cornerback, moving to the slot in sub packages with Jahleel Addae coming in at safety. It fits his skill set as he’s versatile, playing both cornerback and safety in Miami, but I like him more as a 3rd cornerback or safety. He should be more of a 500-600 snap player than a 1000+ snap player like Gilchrist has been the last 2 seasons. He played a career high 791 snaps in 2014, as he was their primary nickel cornerback and made several starts at safety as well, with Louis Delmas getting hurt to end the season and Reshad Jones getting suspended for the start of the season. He graded out below average in 2014 though, making it twice in three seasons that he’s done that.

However, the Chargers are getting a very solid value with this 2-year, 4.25 million dollar deal with 1.25 million guaranteed. Wilson isn’t that much worse than Gilchrist, who signed a 4-year, 22 million dollar deal with the Jets. Ron Parker, a comparable talent with less experience, got 5-year, 25 million from the Chiefs and this is certainly a better deal than that one. The Chargers didn’t have a ton of cap space left after signing King Dunlap, Brandon Flowers, and Orlando Franklin to reasonable deals so I definitely don’t hate the idea of getting Wilson cheap and trying to mask his deficiencies with talented defensive backs like Eric Weddle, Brandon Flowers, and Jason Verrett.

Grade: A-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Francisco 49ers sign CB Shareece Wright

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, 49ers, Uncategorized

The 49ers needed starting cornerback help after losing both Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox this off-season. The problem is that Wright has proven over the past 2 seasons that he’s not a starting caliber cornerback. Wright was a 3rd round pick in 2011 and barely played in his first 2 seasons in the NFL, playing a combined 124 snaps in 2011-2012, but he’s been a starter over the last 2 seasons. In 2013, he was Pro Football Focus’ 103rd ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible.

Going into 2014, the Chargers brought in Jason Verrett in the first round of the draft and Brandon Flowers through free agency to send Wright to a #3 cornerback role, but an injury to Verrett forced Wright to play 853 snaps and make 14 starts. He once again struggled, grading out 105th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks. This is just a one-year deal, so it can’t hurt the 49ers too much, but he’s not worth 3 million over a year with another million attainable through incentives. He’s worth closer to the minimum. If the 49ers have to rely on him as a starter opposite a hopefully healthy Tramaine Brock, they’ll have serious issues in coverage this season.

Grade: C-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets sign S Marcus Gilchrist

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jets, Uncategorized

The Jets’ plan this off-season was clearly to spend to fix their secondary. They added three new cornerbacks on big contracts, Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, and Buster Skrine, and also added Marcus Gilchrist on a big contract as a replacement for veteran free agent Dawan Landry as the starter next to promising 2014 1st round pick Calvin Pryor. Marcus Gilchrist was a 2nd round pick of the Chargers’ in 2011. He struggled in his first 2 seasons in the league at cornerback, but was moved to safety in 2013 and ended up making all 16 starts and grading out 20th at his position. Gilchrist graded out below average in 2014, grading out 72nd out of 87 eligible, but he made all 16 starts again, and I still expected him to get starting caliber money this off-season. This 4-year deal worth 22 million with 8.5 million guaranteed is an overpay, but not an egregious one.

Grade: C+

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets sign G James Carpenter

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jets, Uncategorized

The Jets were in on all the big-time guards available in free agency this off-season, Mike Iupati, Orlando Franklin, and Clint Boling and for good reason. Right guard Willie Colon struggled last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 66th ranked guard out of 78 eligible, and is now going into his age 32 season. Meanwhile at left guard, Brian Winters has been a disaster since they drafted him in the 3rd round in 2013. He was Pro Football Focus’ 77th ranked guard out of 81 eligible as a rookie and last year he was 65th out of 78 eligible, despite playing just 381 snaps. Oday Aboushi, a 2013 5thround pick, took over the starting job from him week 7 and was better, but only by default.

However, the Jets struck out on all 3 of those guards and had to settle for James Carpenter on a 4-year, 19.1 million dollar deal with 7.5 million guaranteed. This deal is cheaper than the ones given to the other 3 guards, but Carpenter isn’t nearly as good of a player. Carpenter, a 2011 1st round pick by the Seahawks, started just 39 games in 4 seasons (31 at left guard, 8 at right tackle, where they originally wanted him to play). That’s a result of several injuries and overall poor play, as he’s graded out well below average in all 4 seasons. He shouldn’t be getting this much money. With the Jets bringing back Willie Colon at right guard and plugging in Carpenter at left guard, guard will remain a position of weakness for the Jets in 2015.

Grade: C-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Kansas City Chiefs sign S Tyvon Branch

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Tyvon Branch will make 2.1 million this season with another 2 million available through incentives. This is a very smart, buy low, one-year prove it deal by the Chiefs. Branch has missed all but 4 games over the past 2 season with injuries, but he was once a solid safety, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked safety in 2011 and their 30th ranked safety in 2012. He’s only going into his age 29 season. After all the injuries, it’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever be the same player again, but this is a very low risk deal and he could easily be a short-term replacement for Eric Berry as a hybrid box safety/linebacker, as Berry recovers from cancer.

Grade: A

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Oakland Raiders sign S Nate Allen

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Raiders, Uncategorized

The Raiders needed safety help next to Charles Woodson, as they released Tyvon Branch, who has missed 28 games over the past 2 seasons, and Brandian Ross, who has played in Branch’s absence in each of the last 2 seasons, has struggled. This 4-year, 23 million dollar deal with 11.8 million guaranteed is a risky move for the Raiders. If Allen plays like he did last season, when he was Pro Football Focus’ 28th ranked safety, he’ll be worth it (or like he did in 2011 when he was 18th at his position), but he has a history of inconsistency.

Nate Allen has been a starter with the Eagles for 5 seasons since they drafted him in the 2nd round in 2010. Over that period of time, he’s played 74 of a possible 80 games, including 70 starts, but he has been up and down, grading out below average in 3 of 5 seasons and never having back-to-back above average seasons. His worst year came in 2012, when he graded out 84th out of 88 eligible safeties. His terrible 2012 is more than 2 years ago, he’s coming off a solid season, and he’s an experienced starter, so I don’t have a problem with him being a starter in 2015 and getting starter’s money, but this is above average starter’s money.

Grade: C+

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams re-sign WR Kenny Britt

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Rams, Uncategorized

Kenny Britt has definitely had an interesting career trajectory, for better or worse. The 2009 1st round pick looked on his way to a promising career in 2010 and 2011. After averaging 1.86 yards per route run as a rookie in 2009, Britt averaged an absurd 3.07 yards per route run in 2010 and 2011, catching a combined 59 passes for 1064 yards and 12 touchdowns on a combined 347 routes run. However, a good as he was in 2010 and 2011, he only played a combined 15 games thanks to multiple injuries, including a torn ACL that derailed his career big-time.

Upon his return from that torn ACL in 2012, he averaged just 1.49 yards per route run in 14 games, after starting the season with a 1 game suspension as a result of a checkered off-the-field history that includes 9 arrests. He was noticeably slowed by surgeries to both of his knees. In 2013, his final year in Tennessee, he was a train wreck. Britt was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd worst ranked wide receiver, despite playing just 305 snaps. No one played fewer snaps and graded out worse. He only caught a third of his 33 targets, with 11 catches for 96 yards and he dropped 7 passes. He averaged just 0.48 yards per route run on 201 routes run. He was the definition of awful and also got into it with his coaches, which is why he had to settle for a minimum deal in free agency last season, rejoining ex-head coach Jeff Fisher in St. Louis.

He bounced back in 2014 with the Rams, catching 48 passes for 748 yards and 3 touchdowns, grading out above average for the first time since his injury shortened 2011 campaign. That was the most receiving yards by a Rams’ receiver since 2008, though that isn’t saying much. Britt also played all 16 games for the first time since his rookie year. I like the fit of him re-signing in St. Louis and sticking with Jeff Fisher, under whom he’s always played his best football, and he’s still only going into his age 27 season after all the ups and downs. However, I question the logic of giving Kenny Britt a 2-year, 9.05 million dollar deal with 4.3 million guaranteed in the first year. Not only am I not sure if he’s worth this kind of money, but I don’t know who else would have given him this kind of money, after his history. It’s not a bad deal though, especially for the receiver needy Rams.

Grade: B-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]