2015 NFL Free Agency

Cincinnati Bengals sign DE Michael Johnson

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bengals, Uncategorized

The Buccaneers signed Michael Johnson to a 5-year, 43.75 million dollar deal last off-season, coming over from Cincinnati. Johnson struggled mightily in his one year in Tampa Bay, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 53rd ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 59 eligible on 648 snaps in 14 games. Still, I was surprised when they gave up on him after one year, as they didn’t get back the 16 million they already paid him for one-year and he could have bounced back in 2015. Much of the reason why he struggled in 2014 was probably the ankle injury that hampered him all season.

Tampa Bay’s loss is Cincinnati’s gain, as they get Johnson back, which fills a huge need they had at defensive end last season in his absence, and they get him far cheaper than he would have been last off-season, as this deal will pay him 24 million over 4 years. Johnson has a good chance to bounce back this year now that he’ll be healthier and now that he’s back in Cincinnati. Ex-defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer is gone, but the Bengals promoted internally with Paul Guenther so the system didn’t really change.

Prior to last season’s down year, Johnson was one of the better edge rushers in the NFL, hence why he got the big contract. A highly athletic 2009 3rd round pick who struggled to put it all together in the first 3 years of his career, grading out below average in every season from 2009-2011, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012 and then proved it again on the franchise tag in 2013, grading out 4th at his position. This is a relatively low risk deal that has strong potential to be a steal.

Grade: A

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Indianapolis Colts re-sign S Mike Adams

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Colts, Uncategorized

Mike Adams has been in the league for 11 years, since 2004, but last season was arguably the best of his career, as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked safety and made the first Pro-Bowl of his career. This is the same guy whose career looked like it could have been over until the Colts signed him in June of last off-season. He’s going into his age 34 season and the Colts can’t expect him to repeat the best season of his career again, but he was a solid starter in 2011, 2012, and 2013, grading out above average in 2011 and 2012 and only slightly below average in 2013. He should still be a starting caliber player for 2015 and the Colts are risking very little by bringing him back, giving him just 4.25 million over 2 years with nothing guaranteed beyond a 1.2 million dollar signing bonus. He can earn another 500K if he makes the Pro-Bowl again in either of the next two seasons.

Grade: A

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Kansas City Chiefs re-sign S Ron Parker

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Ron Parker had a strong market this off-season so I’m not surprised that the Chiefs had to give him a 5-year, 25 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed to keep him and they did need secondary help. However, that doesn’t mean this wasn’t an overpay. Parker, an undrafted free agent in 2011, played 122 snaps in the first 3 seasons of his career from 2011-2013. He saw a ton of action last season, playing 1037 snaps between cornerback and safety, but he struggled at both spots, grading out below average at cornerback and safety, including 73rd out of 87 eligible safeties on 745 snaps.

His versatility is nice for a Kansas City secondary in flux, but Jimmy Wilson, a comparable player with more experience, got just 4.6 million over 2 years from Kansas City’s division rival San Diego. That’s more than Parker will make guaranteed in the first year of this deal. Marcus Gilchrist, a significantly better player, got 22 million over 4 years from the Jets. Given that, this is one of the off-season’s bigger overpays.

Grade: D

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Chicago Bears sign S Antrel Rolle

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bears, Uncategorized

Antrel Rolle was Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked safety in 2013, but that slipped all the way down to 81st out of 87 eligible in 2014. His 2014 season was more in line with his recent play as he’s graded out below average in 5 of the last 6 seasons. He’s going into his age 33 season now so his play won’t get any better going forward. In spite of that, the Bears are paying him like a starter, giving him a 3-year, 11.25 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed.

The Bears did need help in their secondary as projected starting safeties Ryan Mundy and Brock Vereen could have been upgraded, but this move won’t upgrade either of them. Mundy and Vereen, as mediocre as they are, graded out 36th and 54th respectively last season. Rolle can also play slot cornerback, but he won’t upgrade incumbent Demontre Hurst on the slot. Hurst isn’t a great cornerback, but he graded out 51st among cornerbacks last season. This deal is a big overpay, even though it’s not a ton of money. The only redeeming quality of this deal is that there’s no guaranteed money beyond the first year so they can get out of it next off-season, but 5 million over a year is still too much to guarantee Rolle.

Grade: C-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Cincinnati Bengals re-sign G Clint Boling

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bengals, Uncategorized

Talented guards Orlando Franklin and Mike Iupati got 5-year deals worth 36.5 million and 40 million respectively with 20 million and 22 million guaranteed respectively from the Chargers and Cardinals respectively this off-season. I like both of those deals and thought they were solid values, but the deal Clint Boling signed to stay in Cincinnati is the best of the trio I think. Boling’s deal will only pay him 26 million over 5 years with just 5 million guaranteed.

Boling, a 2011 4th round pick, barely played as a rookie (175 snaps), but he’s been a starter over the past 3 seasons, making 44 of 48 starts (2 of which were at right tackle) and grading out above average in all 3 seasons. He was Pro Football Focus’ 22nd ranked guard in 2012, 18th ranked in 2013, and 19th ranked in 2014. He’s quietly one of the better guards in the NFL and this is a very good value for him.

Grade: A

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Philadelphia Eagles re-sign QB Mark Sanchez

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, Uncategorized

Everyone was quick to say that Mark Sanchez had turned it around in Philadelphia last year working with Chip Kelly instead of Rex Ryan, but he didn’t maintain his high level of play. He completed 64.1% of his passes for an average of 7.83 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, mediocre numbers in today’s NFL. Out of the league in 2013 because of injury, Sanchez has ranked 27th (2014), 37th (2012), 36th(2011), 27th (2010), and 39th (2009) on Pro Football Focus since being drafted in 2009.

He’s somehow made 76 starts over that period of time, but if he has to make starts for the Eagles in 2015, because Sam Bradford gets hurt again or something, they’ll be in trouble. Still, this deal, worth 9 million over 2 years with 5.5 million guaranteed and likely unattainable incentives worth up to 16 million, is pretty reasonable when you compare it to what guys like Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, and Josh McCown got this off-season and what guys like Chad Henne, Matt Cassel, and Michael Vick got last off-season. Sanchez is a bottom rung starting quarterback, but he’s an above average backup.

Grade: B+

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Indianapolis Colts sign DE Kendall Langford

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Colts, Uncategorized

Kendall Langford was cut by the Rams earlier this off-season, but it wasn’t because he played badly last season. They cut him because his 6 million dollar salary was too much to pay for a 3rd defensive tackle and they could save that entire amount on the cap by letting him go. Langford graded out about average last season, but only saw 494 snaps as he was stuck behind recent 1st round picks Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers.

The Colts get him at less than 6 million annually on this 4-year, 17.2 million dollar deal with just 2.5 million guaranteed, which is a solid value. He’s still a starting caliber player, only going into his age 29 season, and he’ll fill a position of need for the Colts as a 3-4 defensive end. I like Langford in a 3-4 more than a 4-3 anyway. He had some success in St. Louis’ 4-3, but graded out below average twice in three seasons. In a 3-4 to start his career in Miami, he graded out above average in 2 of 4 seasons, including 7th at his position in 2009 and then 7th again in 2010. This is a solid move.

Grade: B

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Miami Dolphins trade WR Mike Wallace to the Minnesota Vikings

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Dolphins, Uncategorized, Vikings

Trade for Dolphins: It’s no secret the Dolphins have been trying to get rid of Mike Wallace all off-season and the writing on the wall got put into dark ink when the Dolphins traded for Kenny Stills. Credit them for being able to trade him, rather than outright releasing him. That has two benefits. The obvious one is the compensation, even if it is just a swap of a 7th round pick for a 5th round pick. The other benefit is that the Dolphins get out of his 3 million dollar guarantee. If they had cut him, they would have had to pay 3 million of his 9.9 million dollar salary for 2015. By trading him, his whole salary goes to Minnesota. That boosts the cap savings of getting rid of him from 2.5 million to 5.5 million and he’ll be completely off of their cap for 2016. This was a great move by the Dolphins.

Trade for Vikings: I like this move for the Dolphins. I don’t get it for the Vikings. This move allows them to release Greg Jennings, a move that will save them 5 million on the cap and 9 million in cash, but they go from one overpaid receiver to another. There’s a reason why the Dolphins were trying to get rid of Wallace so badly. Wallace is a solid receiver, but his last 1000+ yard year was in 2011, also the last season he graded out above average.

In his final year in Pittsburgh in 2012, he held out long into the off-season, which caused him to have a horrible season. His 64/836/8 slash line wasn’t terrible, but he caught just 55.2% of his targets and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 91st ranked wide receiver out of 105 eligible. That didn’t stop the Dolphins from giving Wallace a 5-year, 60 million dollar deal and he predictably didn’t live up to it, grading out below average in both seasons, putting up slash lines of 73/930/5 and 67/862/10, and reportedly quitting on his team on multiple occasions. It’s possible this trade could serve as a wake-up call for him, but it’s not worth 9.9 million to find out. Even picks aside, they overpaid for Wallace.

Grade: C-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers sign DT Henry Melton

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Henry Melton was Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked defensive tackle in 2011 and 6th ranked in 2012, both seasons with the Bears, but he was limited to 125 snaps in 3 games in 2013 by a torn ACL. As he was playing on the franchise tag in 2013, he hit free agency last off-season and signed with the Cowboys. The Cowboys only paid 2.25 million plus incentives for Melton in 2014, but declined his 3-year, 24 million dollar option this off-season.

Melton played well when on the field in 2014, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked defensive tackle, but he had recurring knee problems and played just 433 snaps. He’s still relatively young (going into his age 29 season), he played well last season when on the field, and he could bounce back in his 2nd year since the injury. This deal will pay him 3.75 million on a one-year deal in 2015 with another 1.25 million available in incentives, so it’s pretty low risk and the upside is huge. Melton will work in rotation with Gerald McCoy and Clinton McDonald. Being reunited with Tampa Bay head coach Lovie Smith, a strong defensive mind who was Melton’s head coach in Chicago for his best years, certainly doesn’t hurt him.

Grade: A

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Oakland Raiders sign MLB Curtis Lofton

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Raiders, Uncategorized

Curtis Lofton finished 4th in the NFL in tackles with 145 last season. Given the size of this deal, 18 million over 3 years with 10 million guaranteed, I assume the Raiders didn’t actually watch Lofton play last season and just looked at the tackle stats. His 22 missed tackles led the NFL regardless of position and a lot of his tackles were him cleaning up broken plays after big gains on a New Orleans defense that was arguably the NFL’s worst in 2014. He ended the season as Pro Football Focus’ 57th ranked middle linebacker out of 60 eligible.

This is nothing new for him. Lofton was Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked middle linebacker in 2011 in the final year of his rookie deal with the Falcons, which landed him a 5-year, 27.5 million dollar deal from the Saints the following off-season. However, he graded out below average in all 3 seasons with the Saints, with his worst year coming last year. There’s a reason the Saints released him, a move that saved them 7.25 million in cash and 4.25 million on the cap. Lofton gets slightly less annually in Oakland than 7.25 million, but this is still a big overpay. It’s actually more per year than he got on his last deal. He’ll be an upgrade on Miles Burris, but only by default as Burris was Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked middle linebacker by a wide margin in 2014.

Grade: D

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]