2015 NFL Free Agency

Oakland Raiders sign DT Dan Williams

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Raiders, Uncategorized

After it became clear that the Raiders, loaded with cap space and dealing with a huge hole at defensive tackle, would not land Ndamukong Suh, speculation immediately tied Terrance Knighton to the Raiders. It made sense given that Knighton had broken out as one of the better defensive tackles in the NFL over the past 2 seasons under new Oakland head coach Jack Del Rio’s tutelage in Denver, where Del Rio was the defensive coordinator, but ultimately they seemed to be scared off by the weight concerns that killed Knighton’s market this off-season. While signing Knighton to a same 1-year, 4 million dollar prove it deal that the Redskins signed him to would have been a good move, signing Dan Williams to this 4-year, 25 million dollar deal with 15 million guaranteed is also a solid value.

Dan Williams was a first round pick by the Cardinals in 2010 as a 6-2 327 pounder with rare movement and pass rush abilities for his size. Williams never quite lived up to his billing, maxing out at 428 snaps and primarily just playing in base packages, but he graded out above average in 4 of 5 seasons, including each of the last 3 seasons and he had his best season in his contract year in 2014. He played all 16 games for the first time in his career and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked defensive tackle on just 427 snaps.

On top of that, he actually graded out above average as a pass rusher, something he’s done in each of the last 2 seasons after grading out below average in that aspect in each of his first 3 seasons. It’s possible his best football is still ahead of him, going into his age 28 season, and I’m excited to see him get more pass rush opportunities in Oakland’s 4-3. He’ll work inside in rotation with veteran Antonio Smith and Justin Ellis, who flashed as a 4th round rookie in 2014. Williams should set a career high in snaps in 2015 and could have a breakout year.

Grade: A-

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Jacksonville Jaguars sign CB Davon House

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jaguars, Uncategorized

So far this off-season, the Jaguars have given 32 million over 5 years to a guy who has been in the league 6 years and maxed out at 388 snaps in a season (Jeremy Parnell), 20.5 million over 5 years to a guy who has been in the league 6 years and maxed out at 398 snaps in a season (Dan Skuta), and now 25 million over 4 years to a guy who has been in the league 4 years and maxed out at 472 snaps in a season (Davon House). It’s an interesting strategy for a team with a ton of money to play with. All 3 of these players have flashed in limited action and the Jaguars think they’re finding diamonds in the rough, but the league generally is smart enough to not let guys slip through the cracks that many times and they’re overpaying based on what other teams around the league would have paid.

This deal is the best of the trio I think. Not only is House younger (only going into his age 26 season), but he’s only been on one team in his career, so it’s not like he’s bounced around the league unable to find starting work like the other 2 players. House, a 2011 4th round pick, just happens to have been stuck on a team with solid cornerback depth thus far in his career in Green Bay. I’m not surprised he got starting cornerback money and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if there was a market for his services around this rate, so it’s far less likely that Jaguars were outbidding other teams by a significant amount for House than it is in the cases of Skuta and Pernell. That alone doesn’t make it a good move, but House has always graded out around average in his career and could definitely break out as a starter in Jacksonville in 2015 and beyond. It’s an overpay, but it’s not egregious.

Grade: C-

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Jacksonville Jaguars sign OLB Dan Skuta

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jaguars, Uncategorized

What?!?! This deal has to be easily the most surprising deal of the off-season, as I never expected Skuta to get anything close to 20.5 million over 5 years and it’s hard to imagine the Jaguars were bidding against any team willing to offer Skuta even half of this money. I like Skuta as a player. The amount of different positions Skuta has played in the NFL is incredible. He’s played 4-3 defensive end, fullback, 4-3 outside linebacker, 4-3 middle linebacker, 3-4 outside linebacker, and 3-4 middle linebacker, while excelling on special teams.

In Jacksonville, he’ll probably play the Bruce Irvin role in Jacksonville’s Seattle style defense, playing as a base 4-3 outside linebacker who rushes the passer from the edge in sub packages occasionally. Skuta has graded out above average in 3 of the last 4 seasons, including 2 straight, including a 2013 campaign in which he was Pro Football Focus’ 16th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker on just 304 snaps in San Francisco, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out better at the position. However, he’s never played more than 398 snaps in a season (setting that career high in 2014) and he’s already going into his age 29 season.

I don’t think this move is quite as bad as it looks at first glance and quite as bad as a lot of people are making it out to be. Skuta is a solid role player who could breakout as a solid starter in 2015 and beyond and, while this is an overpay, the Jaguars have cap space, need to spend to hit the salary floor, and need to kind of overpay to get people to come join a team that’s struggled so much in recent seasons. However, it’s still a pretty big overpay by the Jaguars. He’s a projection to an every-down role. He’s not that young. And the list of guys who break out as starters for the first time in their 7th season in the league isn’t very long. The league is generally smart enough for guys not to fall through the cracks that many times.

Grade: D

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Jacksonville Jaguars sign DE Jared Odrick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jaguars, Uncategorized

This deal is a much better value than the 6-year, 114 million dollar deal with 60 million guaranteed that the Miami Dolphins gave to Ndamukong Suh, even for a team like Jacksonville with plenty of money to spend and the need to spend to get guys to play for a franchise that has struggled mightily in recent years. Odrick, who Suh replaces in Miami, gets 42.5 million over 5 years with 22 million guaranteed from the Jaguars. The Dolphins would have been much better off re-signing Odrick and using the additional 10 million or so annually to fill multiple other holes in their secondary and on their offensive line.

Back to the Jaguars, this is a solid value for them. Odrick has been Pro Football Focus’ 16th and 19th ranked defensive tackle over the past 2 seasons respectively. It’s a bit of an overpay for a guy whose play falls just short of elite, but it’s still a decent move. My one concern is the Jaguars will probably play Odrick at both defensive end and defensive tackle in the Red Bryant/Michael Bennett role in Gus Bradley’s Seattle style front. The Jaguars even released Bryant after making this move. Odrick has experience at both positions, but he struggled mightily early in his career as both a 3-4 and a 4-3 defensive end, including 59th out of 62 eligible 4-3 defensive ends in 2012. It’s possible those days are past him, but I like him more as a pure interior player.

Grade: B

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Jacksonville Jaguars sign TE Julius Thomas

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Julius Thomas played 50 snaps in his first 2 seasons in the league, catching 1 pass, after the incredibly athletic former basketball player was drafted in the 4th round in 2011. He broke out in 2013, catching 65 passes for 788 yards and 12 touchdowns, but he was limited by injuries in 2014, catching 43 passes for 489 yards and 12 touchdowns in 13 games. Thomas is a poor run blocker, has never played all 16 games in a season, and a lot of his passing game production was the result of getting to play with Peyton Manning.

I pegged him as a candidate to be overpaid on the open market this off-season and, sure enough, he was, as the Jaguars gave him 46 million over 5 years with 24 million guaranteed. This makes him the 2nd highest paid tight end in the NFL behind Jimmy Graham, who, by the way, got traded earlier this week. I understand the Jaguars needed to add talent this off-season and had a lot of cap room to work with, but this is definitely an overpay and one that they could easily live to regret down the line. Thomas won’t be nearly as productive with Blake Bortles as he was with Peyton Manning.

Grade: C-

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Green Bay Packers re-sign OT Bryan Bulaga

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Packers, Uncategorized

Bulaga has been a starter for the Packers since they drafted him in the 1st round in 2010, making his debut as a starter in week 5 of 2010. However, despite that, he’s only made 48 starts in 5 seasons, as he’s missed 30 games with injuries over that time period, including all of 2013 with a torn ACL. When on the field, he’s been up and down. He struggled mightily as a rookie, grading out 71st out of 78 eligible in 2010, but he ranked 7th among offensive tackles on 12 starts in 2011. In 2012, he graded out below average in 9 starts before missing all of 2013, but he returned in 2014 to make 15 starts and grade out 16th among offensive tackles.

Given that, he was a very risky signing. It’s tough to know what to make of this 5-year, 33.75 million dollar deal. It’s a much better value than the 5-year, 32 million dollar deal the Jaguars gave to Jeremy Pernell and has 7 career starts this off-season, but that’s not saying much. Bulaga also probably would have gotten more money on the open market had the Packers allowed him to hit the open market, but, again that’s not really saying much. It’s not a terrible value, but it’s hard to say it’s a great move, given the level of risk involved with Bulaga.

Grade: B-

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Tennessee Titans sign OLB Brian Orakpo

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Titans, Uncategorized

For a while, it looked like the Titans weren’t going to do much in free agency, despite a ton of cap space and holes all over a roster that went 2-14 last season. Turns out, they were just being patient and waiting for price tags to drop to where they felt they were appropriate, a surprising showing of savvy by a front office that has rightfully taken a lot of heat for their moves over the past few years. My theory has always been that bad teams always make moves early in free agency, while the good teams wait for the market to come to them a few days later.

The counter to that is that bad teams need to make moves early in free agency to find guys that will make significant impacts on their team and they need to overpay to get those players to join their team, while good teams have the luxury of being only need to patch up a few holes and the ability to get guys to come to their team on cheaper deals because players want to win. The Titans (and the Redskins to a similar extent) are proving that bad teams can execute this strategy as well and I think it will serve them well as they look for bounce back years in 2015. The Titans have re-signed Derrick Morgan and brought in Da’Norris Searcy, Perrish Cox, and now Brian Orakpo, four guys who all have a good chance to be above average starters on this defense next season, and didn’t overpay any of them.

I don’t like this move quite as much as the move to re-sign Derrick Morgan, as the total value of this deal (32 million over 4 years) is 5 million dollars more than Morgan got and the guarantee (13.5 million) is 3 million dollars more than Orakpo got, even though Morgan has missed 2 games in the last 4 seasons combined, while Orakpo has missed 24 games over the past 3 seasons. However, Orakpo offers more upside than Morgan does. Orakpo was Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranking 3-4 outside linebacker in 2011 and their 4th ranked in 2013, earning him the franchise tag. He has seasons cut very short by injury in between, which makes this a risky signing, but I think it’s a solid value. Orakpo could have gotten upwards of 50+ million over 5 years last off-season had he been allowed to reach the open market.

Grade: B

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Tennessee Titans re-sign OLB Derrick Morgan

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Titans, Uncategorized

A rare first round hit by the Titans, Derrick Morgan’s career got off to a slow start as he was limited to 112 snaps by a torn ACL as a rookie in 2010 and struggled in his return from that injury in 2011, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 64th ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 67 eligible. However, he’s graded out above average in each of the past three seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012, 11th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013, and 8th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014. Most importantly, he’s missed just 2 games over the past 4 seasons and doesn’t have any significant injuries on his record other than that torn ACL. His scheme versatility and his pass rush ability are very valuable and the Titans did well to lock up one of their few talented young players on a reasonable 4-year, 27 million dollar deal with 10.5 million guaranteed.

Grade: A-

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Tennessee Titans sign CB Perrish Cox

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Titans, Uncategorized

The Titans had a need at cornerback, as Blidi Wreh-Wilson graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 104th ranked cornerback out of 108 eligible in 2014 in his first season as the starter in place of Alterraun Verner, who departed in free agency last off-season. Wreh-Wilson was a 3rd round pick in 2013 and could have been given another shot as a starter in 2015, in hopes that he improved, but the Titans had money to spend this off-season and BWW fits much more naturally as a 3rd cornerback. Cox, for comparison, was Pro Football Focus’ 35th ranked cornerback last season in a breakout year.

Cox’s career has had an interesting trajectory. He was a 5th round pick by the Broncos in 2010 and graded out above average on 787 snaps as a rookie, but was let go after one year after being arrested on multiple sexual assault charges. Cox was out of the league entirely in 2011 thanks to those charges coupled with a history of off-the-field issues from his collegiate days at Oklahoma State. However, early in 2012, he was found not guilty and the 49ers gave him another chance. He didn’t play much in either 2012 or 2013, playing 168 snaps in 2012 and 81 snaps in 2013 (11 of which were actually with the Seahawks).

However, injuries opened up a starting role for him back with the 49ers in 2014 and he didn’t look back, playing 965 snaps and making 14 starts. He’s obviously a risky signing given his history, but he clearly has talent, showing it in both of his stints as a starter. This deal gives him 15 million over 3 years, but it likely doesn’t have any money guaranteed beyond 2015 so it’s relatively low risk and not a bad value for a player who is only going into his age 28 season and could easily continue being an above average starter in 2015 and beyond.

Grade: B+

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Tennessee Titans sign S Da’Norris Searcy

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Titans, Uncategorized

Searcy was a 4th round pick by the Bills in 2011 NFL Draft. He played just 511 snaps in his first 2 seasons in 2011 and 2012, but he made 20 starts over the past 2 seasons as a hybrid safety/linebacker. He’s never played more than 753 snaps in a season, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked safety in 2014 (on 666 snaps), so I expected someone would give him starter’s money to be a traditional starting safety for them. It turns out that team was the Tennessee Titans, who will pay him 24 million over 4 years with 10.5 million guaranteed. The fit makes sense as the Titans need a replacement for Bernard Pollard at strong safety and need to add as much talent as possible this off-season after a 2-14 season. It’s a risky move, but I think it’s a solid value.

Grade: B+

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